PTON broke the pennant formation, super bearish.
End target is $7.5 to $9 depending on if you draw this as a pennant breakout or bear flag. In any case it's headed to single digits, almost guaranteed, just a matter of when.
I expect a bounce at $11.25 support when it gets there. Last time it tested support it managed to hold it for a day so there's a chance Monday is an up day, will add to my puts if it is. it did bounce off the $12.4 support, but it's toast because it broke out of the bigger pennant formation. Single digits is a matter of time, PTON is SFIXing it's way down.
End target is $7.5 to $9 depending on if you draw this as a pennant breakout or bear flag. In any case it's headed to single digits, almost guaranteed, just a matter of when.
I expect a bounce at $11.25 support when it gets there. Last time it tested support it managed to hold it for a day so there's a chance Monday is an up day, will add to my puts if it is. it did bounce off the $12.4 support, but it's toast because it broke out of the bigger pennant formation. Single digits is a matter of time, PTON is SFIXing it's way down.
Nota
You would have to be insane to go long on this PoS, but there's probably a day's worth of support buyers at each level.Dagangan ditutup secara manual
Took the easy money and ran, doesn;t look like the market wants to tank todayNota
Expecting the market to rally tomorrow, might short this agin with next week;s puts either tomorrow afternoon or ThuDagangan aktif
Up $.40 when the market is red? You know I gotta go for it, lolNext week';s options, this might have one more pump to it.
Nota
Tried to retest the point of the pennant and failed. "I want to buy a crap stock with no hopes for profitability while the market is red" said nobody. Short interest is getting lower and lower, soon there will be no buyers at all.
Nota
If you're bullish on this garbage, wait until Nov earnings to buy. The next 2 earnings will suck bad, NLS was a lot more honest about guidance, nobody buys stationary bikes during the summer when they can ride outside with their buddies.Earnings will suck so bad, it'll probably trade in the $2 range like NLS by Thanksgiving. Complete PoS.
Also, a new CFO is about the worst thing that can happen, the new CFO will uncover any BS financial trickery so she can blame the old CFO while she can.
Nota
LOL, panic buy turns to panic sell, $11:25 is the next targetNota
The more I read about PTON the more bearish I get, lol. CEO expects to have 100 million members, there's only 330 million people in the US total, lol. 200 million gym memberships worldwide. It's this unrealistic expectation that will drive their cash burn, which was $750 million last quarter. They need to stem the cash burn else they're bankrupt within a year.fool.com/investing/2022/05/20/peloton-ceo-says-100-million-members-is-the-goal/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
Don't expect a buyout, anyone that does due diligence will figure out bankruptcy is in the cards, it'll be cheaper to buy their assets in bankruptcy proceedings. If there's another buyout rumor, wait 3 days then short like crazy.
Nota
For my followers that keep asking me for long term plays, try Jan 2024 PTON puts @$5, this company is going bankrupt unless it makes money xmas quarter. I rarely predict bankruptcy, but I did with MNK and Briggs & Stratton. This company is going bankrupt with a year. I guarantee it. 25% drop in book value last quarter, just look at the balance sheet.
Nota
Note: If you choose to do the 2024 puts, I just want to mention that options are still valid when a company gets delisted and put on the pink sheet. At that point you can close options but not open any. You'll be playing with pennies at that point anyways.Dagangan ditutup secara manual
Not quite at my target but I'm also not sure what the market is doing so took the easy money, another grand off this PoS, lol.Nota
Well, there it is. As bearish as I am on this PoS, I expect a bounce off this support for a day or two.Long term they're going bankrupt. Just compare the market cap vs Nautilus, it's stupid. Their only hope is to right size the company for the 7 million customers, target slow growth and customer retention. If they can net $100 profit per user then they can manage to hold this price but the CEO is still in la la land talking about 100 million users which is impossible.
Nota
Almost tempted to buy calls here at support but decided better, lol. hard to get bullish on this PoS, but i do expect one or two up days here, shorting on the next reversalNota
LOL, straight down to $9 I guess, didn't even bounce at all off the previous supportNota
PoS hit the 9's as expected
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.