Shorting RBOB ( Gasoline ) at 2.15.
TECHNICAL
This is largely based on a technical situation:
Two (2) fib levels confluence
88.8% ( MAY ’18 -> DEC ‘18 )
1.27% ( MAR ’19 -> APR ‘19 )
One ( 1 ) notable Fib “Time” Level ( 1.382% FEB ’16 -> MAY ’18 ( Bullish Retrenchment ) )
Previous Structure
Mid ’18, Aug ’17 & Jun ‘15
RSI Divergence
RSI ( Daily Chart ) topped out in MAR; a further push up would be x2 divergence
100 Day MA
I haven’t fully quantified this part albeit it will likely end up ~20% above the 100 day moving average; it has certainly exceeded that ( NOV -> DEC ’18 ) albeit 20% was the top in MAY ‘18
Round #
It’s a round #
FUNDAMENTAL
There are a lot of fundamental factors affecting why this might not be a good trade. The US is looking to end waivers on Iran, Venezuela ( it’s happening ), Saudi Aramco is looking to IPO soon, etc.
On the other hand, Trump has been pretty quiet on oil prices ( BTW – I know this trade is RBOB ) & seasonality ( I haven’t done my own research yet ) suggests it’s coming to a consolidation stage ( link ).
IN SHORT
Stop Loss: ( 2.2587 )
TP: ( 0.618 from 24 DEC ‘18 however far it pushes into it )
TECHNICAL
This is largely based on a technical situation:
Two (2) fib levels confluence
88.8% ( MAY ’18 -> DEC ‘18 )
1.27% ( MAR ’19 -> APR ‘19 )
One ( 1 ) notable Fib “Time” Level ( 1.382% FEB ’16 -> MAY ’18 ( Bullish Retrenchment ) )
Previous Structure
Mid ’18, Aug ’17 & Jun ‘15
RSI Divergence
RSI ( Daily Chart ) topped out in MAR; a further push up would be x2 divergence
100 Day MA
I haven’t fully quantified this part albeit it will likely end up ~20% above the 100 day moving average; it has certainly exceeded that ( NOV -> DEC ’18 ) albeit 20% was the top in MAY ‘18
Round #
It’s a round #
FUNDAMENTAL
There are a lot of fundamental factors affecting why this might not be a good trade. The US is looking to end waivers on Iran, Venezuela ( it’s happening ), Saudi Aramco is looking to IPO soon, etc.
On the other hand, Trump has been pretty quiet on oil prices ( BTW – I know this trade is RBOB ) & seasonality ( I haven’t done my own research yet ) suggests it’s coming to a consolidation stage ( link ).
IN SHORT
Stop Loss: ( 2.2587 )
TP: ( 0.618 from 24 DEC ‘18 however far it pushes into it )
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.