It is helpful to view past recession trajectories to get a visual idea of where we are at the moment. I chose the recessions which were most relevant to today's market conditions. The 01 (purple) and 08-09 (dark blue) recessions were the first "modern" recessions where MMT was being implemented and tech made up a significant chunk of the market. The 70 (reddish brown) and 73-75 (green) recessions were the first stagflation recessions of the 70s. Finally, the Great Depression (light blue) is shown as a worst case scenario. If this current period mirrors history, a bounce or sideways movement through the rest of 2022 wouldn't be surprising. While a depression trajectory is possible, I don't believe it is most likely at this point.
Nota
Many people are calling a new bull market now that inflation is dropping. I think it's too early. The current trajectory still closely mirrors 08-09.Nota
This week's FOMC meeting suggested the FED isn't ready to cave in the battle against inflation. More pain comes before the pivot.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.