SPY fork pattern indicating the fall ended and recovery started

22 Sep 2020

If you draw the highest resistance trend line since the recovery started (the blue line in the graph) and from the high before the last one (where the red line starts, on April 29) draw a fork to the last high on that resistance trend line (on June 28) and to the latest low after that high (on the green line, on June 29) this fork clearly shows that SPY fell right after it opened and went over the the upper fork line (on 9/2) and, if the pattern holds, yesterday when it went below the upper line of the fork will be the point where recovery starts and the market will go up.

Conclusion: go long.

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22 Sep 2020

Nota

Actually the pattern holds going back as well. For the previous major market fall, the market started falling shortly after going above the fork's high line and the recovery started right after SPY went below the fork's low line.

27 Sep 2020

Nota

There is a good chance that the price will fall on Monday before resuming the upward move. Here's why I think so. I wrote an algo/strategy that gives excellent results for TECL (a leveraged 3x bull tech sector ETF). The version optimized for TECL gives 677,000% profit since 2012 in backtesting. The version optimized for SPY (and used unchanged on TECL) has about 50,000% profit (tradingview.com/chart/TECL/QOYZiqCw-TECL-ToW-Srategy-Bullish-Signal/) and this year over 90% profitable trades. Because it's so accurate it's a good gauge for the market. On Thursday at close the algo gave a bearish signal. Rather often fall follows the bearish signal one day late. For example, in forward testing the algo predicted the current fall on Sep. 1 but Sep. 2 the market went up and only on Sep. 3 the big fall happened (you can see that in the link here). Similarly, one version of the algo also gives a bearish signal on Sep. 21 and Sep. 22 the market was up and only on Sep. 23 it fell (and there is a long signal for close of Sep. 23). So the bearish signal from Thursday may very well mean that Friday the market would go up (which it did indeed; the algo also gave an intra-day bullish signal in the morning which disappeared later after the price went up) and would fall on Monday. However I expect this fall to be temporary (one day only) and I don't expect the price to fall lower than the lower pitchfork line and I expect a bullish signal from the algo at close on Monday.