SPY's Curious Friday Recap

So, I think a little talk is in order after today!

First let's recap. Unfortunately, SPY was destined to be bullish today after opening below a key level (439). Whenever that happens, bullishness is inevitable. I still didn't get long right off the bat, because I have no idea what's going on anymore, but yeah.

SPY didn't have a lot of momentum today, despite being, more or less, bullish. I say more or less because there really wasn't a lot of conviction in this bullishness. It was just like... doing its thing you know? Very unconvincingly. It also somewhat disappointed, it passed my calculated key level (442) and just flopped around there. And then when it finally gained momentum at EOD it didn't manage to break out of its trading range. The top end of its trading range for today was 445. I was really hoping to see that 445, but it didn't quite make it.
TSLA on the other hand, it ripped through my levels like it was no one's business! And then ended the day with a bang by surpassing its trading range (907 was the cut off for TSLA today).

So, what does this all mean?
TSLA ending the day on a very bullish note.
SPY, while it is bullish, its not really convincing. I would have liked to see it rip through its trading range, which generally means SPY is poised for further continuation up.

SO what does this all mean in laymen's terms? Its actually good news for bears, I think. The fact that SPY didn't break out of that range, means that it is very possible we see some selling on Monday. If you recall Monday, SPY tested 415. 415 was the end point of SPY's trading range. It didn't break through that 415 and subsequently became super bullish the next day. Because it didn't commit to that bearishness. Diddo for today. It didn't commit to its bullishness. I was rooting for it, tbh! Despite being very short biased, I was actually wanting to see SPY commit! Call me old fashioned, but I like commitment ;).

SO what does this all mean? Who EFFING knows! I don't even know what this is. I have no idea what's going on, BUT! I don't see what the issue is with a little bullishness? It really doesn't matter to me whether this tanks or goes parabolic. I'll play it either way. The problem really comes from people chasing tops and bottoms. Don't do that. When SPY is ready to sell off, there will be PLENTY of time for you to jump in and make a decent profit! You don't need to time the top or bottom. In fact, this leads to major losses as many of you are lamenting about. Its really important to wait for confirmation, especially when the market is playing these games. ​

Also, if we look back to financial crises in the past, I.e. 2008, you will see the stock didn't just go straight down. It took over a year before it finally reached the bottom, and in those 2 + ish years, it had its fair share of bull runs. So like, while this is confusing, its really not surprising or alarming. We need to just chill out and play the chart and the trend.

But, SPY's failure to break out of its trading range led me to take a small bearish position on SPY. With shares though. Hell if I am playing options under these current conditions. Its far too risky. I don't want time and volatility to be working against me here because it is extremely possible that SPY will retest even higher!

And oh darn. Just checked. SPY broke out of its trading range after hours..... Well SH!!!T. Ok. Good for you SPY. You committed!

Yeah. We need to deal with the possibility that SPY is going to go higher because at this point, it is very much in the foreseeable future!

Now, I don't have any trading ranges yet. I need to do a little maintenance on my math models, update them with recent data, re-test them and just do routine housekeeping to keep them up to snuff. That's my project for the weekend. Once its all done and tested, I will do another post if you are interested on Sunday with what the results are saying for Monday.
I will wait till futures open, because those that follow me know that I have, in my Louis Vuitton purse of tricks, a way to map out SPY's potential behaviour next day based on futures ES-Futures open and the first couple hours of futures data =).

And on an unrelated note, while the market was pulseless and stagnant this morning, I ended up checking out MARA and liking its price aciton. I did a quick little rough draft of some calculations on MARA, predicted it could potentially hit 28 today and went long. And it actually worked! It hit 28!!!! So, I am going to be putting this into an actual working model and will probably add MARA to my repitoire of stocks. So if you follow me, be prepared for some MARA posts :-).

I am always looking to diversify my trading portfolio. If you have a stock you love and would like to see if I can map it out, leave your suggestion in the comments and I will take a look at what I can do!

As always everyone, trade safe, be safe, and have a great weekend! Try not to think about the market and this nonsense. Things will be fine! The world isn't ending (unless Russia decides to pull out its nukes) and we are all okay =).

As always, let me know if you have any questions/comments or criticisms!

Take care al!