Thanks "andrewunknown" tradingview.com/u/andrewunknown/
Just wanted to take a look at where a normal business cycle would take the markets. Historically, bear market corrections happen at a rate which is 3-times the bull market recovery. The slopes of the two corrections and recoveries over the past decade seem to be in line. We appear to be tracking a similar recovery slope.
If this was "near" the top (this is not a top call), a normal correction (circa 2000's slope), we would see the market correct back to a level ~1210 on the S&P, bottoming around Aug 2015. If we have use the slope from 2008 corrections, be would hit around ~1150 S&P, June 2014. I think the first is more likely as we haven't had enough time to build up a bubble market.
(Unless maybe inflation turns on, but QE should effectively keep this in check)
(Failure in China could be a good catalyst to start a health down trend).
Just wanted to take a look at where a normal business cycle would take the markets. Historically, bear market corrections happen at a rate which is 3-times the bull market recovery. The slopes of the two corrections and recoveries over the past decade seem to be in line. We appear to be tracking a similar recovery slope.
If this was "near" the top (this is not a top call), a normal correction (circa 2000's slope), we would see the market correct back to a level ~1210 on the S&P, bottoming around Aug 2015. If we have use the slope from 2008 corrections, be would hit around ~1150 S&P, June 2014. I think the first is more likely as we haven't had enough time to build up a bubble market.
(Unless maybe inflation turns on, but QE should effectively keep this in check)
(Failure in China could be a good catalyst to start a health down trend).
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.