SPY - large timeframe trend

10 Sep

Another cluttered chart to publish. I put all this information on a chart for my reference… I like a lot of reference😊 I realize it can look chaotic to some, so I will explain my train of thought the best I can.

Most of you will know this already.

Purple rectangles represent gaps in the chart. The ones not closed yet are labelled with when I think they will be traded through. I believe there will be a last push up on SPY in the next 2 quarters or so...so, I do have a couple fractals // one for each warning. My intention at the moment is to dca out into cash sometime in Q2 of 2025 and play the charts from there. If we go higher than 610 I’ll adjust from there. If I dca out too early, so be it. The last year was phenomenal and I don't mind being out/sniping for a year.

Angled purple trend lines should be self explanatory with the labels they have. The 1st angle (at least with my current thesis) does not intersect SPY price action until Q4 of 2025, which is the closure of the May 2024 gap at around 507. That kind of drop is reminiscent of a Jan 2022 to fall of 2022 decline and I intend to explore that thesis more in further posts. My timing is grounded in the US 2 year/10 year yield curve un-inversion and hitting an interest rate of 3.75-4.0 by June/July of 2025. If there is no decline leading up to then, I will of course re-evaluate and stay longer in the market.

I was lucky enough to be out of most positions mid July this year. I call it lucky because the decline came sooner than I would have expected. That being said, I have already started to dca into the usual suspects (most of the mag 7) as a start during the Aug 5th dip. We had a Civic holiday up here Aug 5 while the market was still open! Was able to concentrate quite well!! I have also started positions in smaller caps…WSO, ONTO, FTI, DECK, APP, MLI. I believe with the interest rate drop this Sept and forward, these smaller cap companies will benefit. I missed the pumps on PSN, NTNX and others but did catch a good number of smaller caps through earnings and did allright .:)

Anyway, back to the chart…The green scribbles and blue arrows look like a resurgence in volume. If CPI this Wed the 11th and FOMC on the 18Tth are favourable I may discount a further dip into October entirely and ride the 3rd angle up as far as she dares to go.

Vertical lines are also self-explanatory for the most part. FOMC dates of course… Also I like to put the SPY rebalancing dates. Usually, companies that are announced to join are revealed 2 weeks or so before inclusion. If it is a company I own and believe in long term I try to remember to buy a nice little chunk before the announcement. This year it worked out for me in owning PLTR. That was sweet.

I have noted the SAHM rule trigger July 1st and as we all know, again, the 2y 10y is back to normal…which me thinks gives 5-9 months before the fan gets dirty…😊

I wish you all well good people.