$USDJPY looking for possible continued weakness

5 Jun 2016

Looking at prior history (left) on this Weekly chart you can see that we're at an important area here. We can see that the Bat completed, but failed to even break to a full 27.2% retrace. We then continued on down to fully complete the H&S pattern (& 200% ext); yet again, failed to retrace even 27.2% before a low NFP pushed it back down to retest prior lows area. There's a lot going on in the smaller TF's but in the bigger picture it's showing me that it's a good possibility that we finally go for that potential Alt Bat I've had on here at ~$102.505. Will it be a straight line? Doubtful. I do not see +Div anywhere yet though.

I'll break down a lower TF or two soon to show some possible paths that I'm planning for, keeping in mind that the large red candles have been tending to bounce for a little bit afterwards (neckline break one of the few exceptions). So I wouldn't say close your eyes & short anywhere, but shorting on pops looks like a good base strategy here. I'll be watching for a new June low to confirm first (smaller TF possibility for bullish move that I will prepare for if it shows promise, will to be wrong to be right). Stay nimble, especially with FOMC upon us.

17 Jun 2016

Nota

USDJPY chart We have hit confluence & stalled for now with a 161.8% extension & a measured move of 1. We are approaching the completion of an Alt Bat ~$102.505 so it could be a buyable dip