Potential harmonic reversal forming here

4 hari lalu

A possible long setup to return to the previous pattern is around 147.930 as a “launch pad.”
See also my other analysis and the accompanying description.

Good trades!

4 hari lalu

Nota

3 hari lalu

Dagangan aktif

Update

The price is now trading very close to the 146.200 key level.

Our Stop-Loss remains at 146.175 (old 0.786 Fibo of the pattern).

All 3 positions are secured and we are giving this situation more room to breathe.

If price does not move before the data release and stays stuck in the lower range, we will close 2 positions and hold 1 position until the key event.

Technical outlook:
As long as price stays above 146.200, the long setup remains active.
If it breaks below 146.200, we are out.

3 hari lalu

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Additional Scenario & Technical Outlook

If the Fed only cuts rates by 0.25%, USD/JPY could react bullishly from the 146.200 zone. Short-term targets in this case would be 146.742 (Pivot), 147.213 (R1), and 148.006 (R2). The carry trade would be strengthened and could remain active for longer – higher levels up to 148.477 (R3) and beyond could be tested again.

Risk Management

Depending on market conditions and the prior chart setup, the stop-loss may be replaced with a hedge. The next 3-hour candle should ideally close above 146.742, confirming this level as support. If it does not, the stop-loss will be removed and a hedge placed at 146.175.

Hedge targets: 145.949 (S1) – 145.478 (S2).

Alternatively, manual intervention is possible depending on the momentum of price action.

3 hari lalu

Nota

Update:
USDJPY is currently trading just above 146.200.
The original SL at 146.175 has been replaced with a hedge position.
If price drops below 146.200, the hedge will trigger at 146.175, targeting 145.478 (S2).
If the zone holds, however, a rebound toward 146.742 (Pivot) and 147.213 (R1) remains possible.

3 hari lalu

Nota

Update:
The protective hedge is active and secured.

If price reverses, the hedge will close at break-even.

If it continues lower toward S2 at 145.478, we will take profit on the hedge – while keeping the long positions open to target the previous highs.

👉 At this stage, it’s all about patience, protection, planning and courage – that’s what this current show requires.

3 hari lalu

Nota

We’re sitting pretty in profit — that was a nice plan. We’ll let it run now. I hope someone could take something from this and see how we manage with the hedges. Since I think no one is really following here anymore, I won’t post any updates and will stay quiet for a bit.