VIX has drifted into complacency territory with stretched short positioning, steep front-end contango, and seasonal factors lining up. Instead of outright longs, a VX1–VX2 Calendar Spread offers cleaner exposure to rising volatility and curve normalization.
Setup
• VIX near equilibrium range (12–15%), entering complacency.
• Futures curve in steep contango → negative carry on outright longs.
• Short positioning at multi-year highs, vulnerable to squeeze.
• Seasonality favors higher VIX.
• Index volatility suppressed, single stocks trading erratically.
Trade Idea
• Long VX1 / Short VX2 (multiplier = 100).
• Benefits from both rising volatility and front-end curve flattening.
• VX1 outperforms VX2 in a spike; VX2 cushions VX1 in grind-lower scenarios.
Entry Triggers
• VIX9D > VIX.
• VIX crossing EMA20/EMA50.
• RSI(14) on VIX > 50.
• SPX daily short setup.
Target
• Target zone to be reached before VX1 expiration.
• Target zone 1: VIX in range 20 - 22, target zone 2: VIX in range 28 – 30
Exit
• On VX1 expiry: VX1 converges to the VIX. VX2 becomes front month. If the position is left open, it effectively becomes a short front-month future and must be re-evaluated.
• Alternatively, close at VIX Index in specified target zone or discretionary, depending on SPX price action (i.e. SPX bouncing back after a dip).
Risk
• Do not over-leverage.
Setup
• VIX near equilibrium range (12–15%), entering complacency.
• Futures curve in steep contango → negative carry on outright longs.
• Short positioning at multi-year highs, vulnerable to squeeze.
• Seasonality favors higher VIX.
• Index volatility suppressed, single stocks trading erratically.
Trade Idea
• Long VX1 / Short VX2 (multiplier = 100).
• Benefits from both rising volatility and front-end curve flattening.
• VX1 outperforms VX2 in a spike; VX2 cushions VX1 in grind-lower scenarios.
Entry Triggers
• VIX9D > VIX.
• VIX crossing EMA20/EMA50.
• RSI(14) on VIX > 50.
• SPX daily short setup.
Target
• Target zone to be reached before VX1 expiration.
• Target zone 1: VIX in range 20 - 22, target zone 2: VIX in range 28 – 30
Exit
• On VX1 expiry: VX1 converges to the VIX. VX2 becomes front month. If the position is left open, it effectively becomes a short front-month future and must be re-evaluated.
• Alternatively, close at VIX Index in specified target zone or discretionary, depending on SPX price action (i.e. SPX bouncing back after a dip).
Risk
• Do not over-leverage.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.