What i think will happen over the next 6 months
TECHNICALS:
Bullish:
200 wsma holding
rsi stupidly oversold *though it's not an indication of a bottom
From chart history, the price doesn't like to stay below lower bb'
Lower trendline penetration
Wyckoff
I guess this is bullish. lol
Bearish:
this (overleveraged corona panic)
Hyperwave?
Wedge?
SENTIMENTAL
Finex shorts +200% and longs - 40% near (in the bottom) late shorts loading and longs getting liquidated - bullish reversal. (though this is more short term oriented)
OKEx net longs short is near 0.80 - an almost all-time low.
okex.com/markets/futures-data/btc-usd-weekly
binance short account - 62%, long - 38%
I have never seen F&G staying so low for so long.
alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/
After the big dump, more people got rekt trying to 100x long than on 30% down move
People try to short every time they see a down move
A lot of gurus got liquidated from twitter. ( unfortunately not all of them)
After the big dump, i thought btc is a scam. Usually, i am wrong.
Funding on fire
COT. Leveraged funds went short and quit, professional traders went long and also quit. - bullish
tradingster.com/cot/futures/fin/133741
Overall, sentiment is extremely negative.
ATH of XBT Volatility (fear)
FUNDAMENTALS
Bullish:
Whales keep growing 1000k+ adresses
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.Min1KCount&mAvg=7&s=1337577556&u=1581292800&zoom=
lowest ever SOPR
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=indicators.Sopr&mAvg=7&s=1357516800&u=1583798400&zoom=
Puell Multiple is green. And after the halving, it will dump more
Unrealized profit/loss at its lows
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=indicators.NetUnrealizedProfitLoss
Reserve/Risk is also supper low
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=indicators.ReserveRisk&mAvg=7
NVT is also looking good. Maybe not that good for 2 years ahead
Difficulty ribbon and market multiple
FED printer go brrrr.
Euro printer go brrrr.
Tether printer go brr (almost 2 billions in a few weeks)
skew.com/dashboard/stable-coins
USDC printer go brrr.
skew.com/dashboard/macro
Q2 alway had higher returns.
India unbanning crypto
Plenty of yearly bases in alts.
Bearish:
- Too many miners. ( more hash = more competition). We may witness a real mining disaster after halving.
- South Korea may do more regulations.
- Transactions do not grow fast.
- People still do not trust it.
Bullish:
200 wsma holding
rsi stupidly oversold *though it's not an indication of a bottom
From chart history, the price doesn't like to stay below lower bb'
Lower trendline penetration
Wyckoff
I guess this is bullish. lol
Bearish:
this (overleveraged corona panic)
Hyperwave?
Wedge?
SENTIMENTAL
Finex shorts +200% and longs - 40% near (in the bottom) late shorts loading and longs getting liquidated - bullish reversal. (though this is more short term oriented)
OKEx net longs short is near 0.80 - an almost all-time low.
okex.com/markets/futures-data/btc-usd-weekly
binance short account - 62%, long - 38%
I have never seen F&G staying so low for so long.
alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/
After the big dump, more people got rekt trying to 100x long than on 30% down move
People try to short every time they see a down move
A lot of gurus got liquidated from twitter. ( unfortunately not all of them)
After the big dump, i thought btc is a scam. Usually, i am wrong.
Funding on fire
COT. Leveraged funds went short and quit, professional traders went long and also quit. - bullish
tradingster.com/cot/futures/fin/133741
Overall, sentiment is extremely negative.
ATH of XBT Volatility (fear)
FUNDAMENTALS
Bullish:
Whales keep growing 1000k+ adresses
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.Min1KCount&mAvg=7&s=1337577556&u=1581292800&zoom=
lowest ever SOPR
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=indicators.Sopr&mAvg=7&s=1357516800&u=1583798400&zoom=
Puell Multiple is green. And after the halving, it will dump more
Unrealized profit/loss at its lows
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=indicators.NetUnrealizedProfitLoss
Reserve/Risk is also supper low
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=indicators.ReserveRisk&mAvg=7
NVT is also looking good. Maybe not that good for 2 years ahead
Difficulty ribbon and market multiple
FED printer go brrrr.
Euro printer go brrrr.
Tether printer go brr (almost 2 billions in a few weeks)
skew.com/dashboard/stable-coins
USDC printer go brrr.
skew.com/dashboard/macro
Q2 alway had higher returns.
India unbanning crypto
Plenty of yearly bases in alts.
Bearish:
- Too many miners. ( more hash = more competition). We may witness a real mining disaster after halving.
- South Korea may do more regulations.
- Transactions do not grow fast.
- People still do not trust it.
Nota
Tether chart. Maybe people just want to short now. Guess what will happen with em
Nota
Nota
It is not supper precise but you may understand a level of sentiment while approaching to decision levelsNota
Nota
I would say this - when it stays negative/positive over the period of time first poll change will indicate on reversal. The same logic as with support/resistance
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.