Wheat Futures – Quick Update | May 28, 2025

Wheat Futures – Quick Update | May 28, 2025

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📈 Overview

• Swing low formed at $5.06 on May 13 (capitulation volume spike)
  
• Pullback to $5.26–5.28 now likely completed Wave 2 of a new impulse
  
• Indecision candles (daily spinning top, 4 h dragonfly doji) signal exhaustion of selling
  

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🔑 Key Technical Levels

Support:

• Short term: $5.26–5.28
  
• Medium term: $5.20
  
• Long term floor: $5.06
  

Resistance:

• Initial: $5.35–5.38 (50 EMA 4 h/1 h)
  
• Next: $5.50–5.55 (daily 50 EMA 5.40, 200 EMA 5.58)
  
• Stretch:$5.75–6.00
  

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🧰 Indicator Snapshot

| Indicator | Short-Term Bias|Confirmation Needed|
| ---------------------- | --------------------- | ------------------------- |
| RSI (1 h/4 h) | Bullish divergence | Break above 60–65 |
| Momentum (4 h) | Turning up | Close >\$5.35 |
| Volume | Above-average on dips | Sustained rise on rallies |
| MACD (1 h) | Positive | 4 h bullish cross |
| Candlesticks | Spinning top / doji | Follow-through above high |
| Elliott Wave | New Wave 3 unfolding | Hold >\$5.26 |
| Fibonacci Time | .618 cycle low hit | Time window May 29–31 |
| Seasonality | Bullish into June | No new lows |
| COT Positioning | Commercial buying | Fund short covering |
| Intraday/Weekly Cycles | Early June turn | Break \~June 4–6 |

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🎯 Trading Plan

1. Short-Term (1–5 days):
• Buy dips into $5.26–5.30
• Targets: $5.38 → $5.50
• Stop: $5.24
• R:R: 2:1

2. Medium-Term (1–3 weeks)
• Accumulate $5.20–5.28
• Targets: $5.57 → \$5.75
• Stop: Daily close < $5.20

3. Long-Term (1–2 months)
• Build core above $5.06
• Targets: $5.75–6.08 (1×–1.618× Wave 1)
• Stop: Weekly close < $5.00

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📅 Outlook

• Bullish continuation likely into early June if $5.26 holds
  
• High-probability breakout above $5.35–5.38unlocks next leg toward $5.75+
  
• Invalidation: Close below $5.20 delays rally toward lower retest
  

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💡 Stay tuned for updates as we approach the May 29–31 cycle window.