Corn Futures Higher on Weather Questions — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

• Corn for December delivery rose 0.8% to $4.21 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, finishing on a high note as traders appeared unwilling to commit to the notion that the U.S. corn crop will show little stress from summertime come the harvest season.
• Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.2% to $10.26 a bushel.
• Wheat for September delivery rose 0.2% to $5.42 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Late in the Game: Corn futures turned the corner late in the trading session, finishing the day leading the row crop complex higher.

While the U.S. corn crop is expected to be a record-large, traders appear unwilling to proceed without attaching some amount of weather premium to the futures contract.

"The corn market is acting like it has some support to it," says Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. Reports of some pollination issues for corn in the eastern Corn Belt are giving some traders fuel for their speculation.

"Cosmetically, the plants still look good, but we are going to have to wait another month before we see what the ears look like on the plants," he said.

Corn Confusion: The USDA published a notice following the release of its weekly export sales report that confirmed new large-volume export sales of U.S. corn.

It was supportive for corn futures, but that support dried up after the USDA changed its initial report that 135,000 metric tons were sold to China for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year. In a correction, the USDA said the actual buyer was South Korea, which traders appeared to find far less exciting.

Retracing Steps: Russian wheat prices were on the rise earlier this week, but that rally appears to have ended, SovEcon said in a note. That is because a lot of newly grown Russian wheat has arrived on Russian markets, the firm said.

"As of July 18, Russia had harvested 23.9 million metric tons of wheat," said SovEcon. "A significant share of the harvested crop is coming from the South (20.9 million metric tons), but harvesting is gradually shifting to the central regions."

The change in direction for Russian prices was felt by other wheat prices around the world, including in Chicago.

INSIGHT

Slashing Its Size: The USDA is moving a significant portion of its headquarters out of Washington, D.C., this after having laid off over 15,000 employees.

In a notice published Thursday signed by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, the USDA said 15,364 employees have "voluntarily elected deferred resignation," meaning they have submitted their resignation with a delayed date for their exit.

The USDA also said that it was moving D.C. staff to one of five so-called "hubs" that include Raleigh, N.C., Kansas City, Mo., Indianapolis, Fort Collins, Colo., and Salt Lake City.

Over the Water: The cost to ship grains from a port in the U.S. Gulf to Japan reached the highest point since last year, the USDA said in its weekly grain transportation report.

The rate for shipping a metric ton of grain from the Gulf to Japan was $52.75 as of July 17, the highest rate since October and up $4 from the previous week.

President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan this week, which includes many agriculture-centric provisions.

AHEAD

• The USDA is scheduled to release its twice-a-year cattle inventory report at 3 p.m. EDT Friday.
• The USDA is due to release its monthly Cattle on Feed Report at 3 p.m. EDT Friday.
• The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly Cold Storage Report at 3 p.m. EDT Friday.
• The CFTC is due to release its weekly Commitments of Traders Report at 3:30 p.m. EDT Friday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com