Kinsale Q2 Earnings Preview: Pricing Power vs. Loss Costs

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. KNSL will release Q2 results after market close on Thursday, July 24, 2025. Consensus estimates call for EPS of $4.41, up 11% from Q2 2024, and revenue of $424 million, up 10% YoY. Shares are up 4.35% so far this year and 9% below the 52-week high of $531.79.

Kinsale's Q1 operating EPS of $3.71 rose 6% YoY on 18% higher net earned premiums ($365.8 million) and a 33% jump in net investment income ($43.8 million), but catastrophe losses drove the loss ratio up 330 bps to 62.1%. Investors now look for sequential margin relief. Aon's 1H 2025 recap tags the May 1416 severe-convective-storm outbreak at $11 billion in economic losses, so even a mid-single-million charge could keep the loss ratio elevated (lower is better).

Beyond weather, accident-year severity remains the swing factor. Marsh McLennan notes U.S. excess-casualty rates jumping 18% in Q2 as nuclear verdicts proliferate, hinting at further social-inflation pressure on Kinsale's casualty book. The combined ratio jumped to 82.1% in Q1 from 79.5% a year ago, so investors will be looking at any relief on these metrics.

Valuation stays demanding at 7.1 book despite the modest YTD gain, so commentary on rate adequacy, casualty trend severity, and reinsurance costs could drive multiple compression or relief. Management will also shed light on 2025 premium-growth targets and capital deployment, setting the next catalyst ahead of hurricane season.