Adobe stock: why its measured AI strategy may prove ‘winner’ in long run

Investors often attribute moderating growth at Adobe Inc. ADBE to the absence of an aggressive artificial intelligence (AI) strategy.

In fact, they’ve punished it this year for not spending as ambitiously on AI as some of its software peers.

However, Oracle earnings this week reinforced bubble concerns as the giant’s management raised its guidance for AI spending, even though revenue came in shy of Street estimates in the fiscal Q2.

Against that backdrop, ADBE’s measured approach to artificial intelligence appears increasingly prudent. If anything, Adobe shares may actually be better-positioned to weather an AI cycle, which could normalize sooner than investors expect.

Adobe stock isn’t really an AI laggard

It’s not entirely fair to view ADBE stock as an “AI laggard” since the Nasdaq-listed firm is actively integrating artificial intelligence into its products.

And its efforts are already bearing fruit. On Thursday, the management confirmed it’s “attracting new creators to Adobe through the Firefly” – the company’s creative GenAI models and web apps.

Firefly is available to creators as a standard, pro, or premium subscription. This suggests ADBE is embedding AI into its creative tools while avoiding the risk of overextension.

Its strategy ties artificial intelligence investments directly to monetizable features – ensuring that spending remains aligned with revenue streams.

If the AI demand normalizes or fails to scale as expected next year, this measured approach could actually prove a winner for Adobe Inc.

Figma/Canva competition concerns are overblown

Much has been made of competition from Figma and Canva, but those concerns may be overstated.

Both platforms are popular, yet they lack Adobe’s scale, balance sheet, and entrenched ecosystem.

If AI enthusiasm fades, investor appetite for speculative names may cool, leaving Canva’s expected IPO vulnerable and Figma’s growth trajectory less compelling.

Adobe, by contrast, has billions earmarked for buybacks, a subscription model that helps generate recurring revenue, and a product moat that creative professionals rely on daily.

Its ability to innovate while returning capital to shareholders makes it notably better positioned to survive and thrive than newer entrants.

In a post‑AI‑hype environment, Adobe’s resilience could stand out even more.

How to play ADBE shares heading into 2026

ADBE shares may not deliver the adrenaline rush of hyperscaler AI spending headlines. However, the company’s measured AI strategy could prove a winner in the long run.

What Adobe offers is stability – and that could drive the stock back to $500, or up more than 40% next year, according to D.A. Davidson analysts.

With a creative ecosystem that remains the industry standard, Adobe is positioned to thrive whether artificial intelligence demand accelerates or cools.

All in all, ADBE represents a durable play on innovation without the risks of runway capex. Over the long term, it may reward patience with sustainable growth and shareholder value.