SovEcon raises forecasts for 2025 Russian wheat output on better winter survival rates
SovEcon, a leading agricultural consultancy, has revised its forecast for Russian wheat production upwards.
The new estimate projects a harvest of 79.7 million metric tons, representing a substantial increase of 1.1 million metric tons from the previous forecast.
This adjustment reflects improved conditions and expectations for a more abundant wheat crop in Russia.
The upward revision in production forecast has potential implications for global wheat supply and prices, as Russia is a major player in the international wheat market.
Improved winter survival rate
The latest revision of the crop yield projection shows a significant improvement due to higher-than-anticipated winter survival rates, SovEcon said.
This unexpected resilience has resulted in a greater number of plants surviving the harsh winter conditions, leading to a larger harvest than initially predicted.
The latest forecasts indicate an adjustment in wheat production expectations.
Winter wheat production in Russia has been revised upwards, with the projected output now standing at 52.2 million metric tons, a notable increase from the previous estimate of 50.7 million metric tons, according to the latest forecast.
Conversely, the outlook for spring wheat production has been updated as well.
The forecast has been lowered to 27.5 million metric tons, marking a decrease from the earlier projection of 27.9 million metric tons.
This downward adjustment could be attributed to a range of factors, such as unfavorable weather conditions, pest or disease outbreaks, or other challenges that have impacted spring wheat crops.
SovEcon said:
The plants have weathered the winter well, and their condition has improved.
Overall crop conditions improve
The Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) has reported a significant improvement in the condition of crops across Russia.
In March, only 5% of wheat crops were assessed to be in poor condition.
This marks a substantial recovery from the record high of 37.1% of crops in poor condition reported in November, indicating a positive trend for Russian agriculture.
Roshydromet assessments indicate that crop conditions typically improve during the winter months.
The most significant improvements are observed in seasons that begin with unusually poor field conditions, such as those experienced in 2015 and 2021.
Despite recent optimism surrounding the prospects of the upcoming Russian wheat crop, SovEcon maintains a cautious stance, asserting that it is too early to make definitive projections.
Yield potential remains below average
Despite experiencing favorable weather conditions during the month of March, the overall health and yield potential of the wheat crop remains below average, SovEcon said.
It is also possible that the favorable weather in March arrived too late to substantially improve the crop’s overall condition.
Due to the persistent soil moisture deficit observed in numerous regions and the anticipation of dry weather conditions in the upcoming weeks, SovEcon’s current assessment suggests that there is an unlikely chance of substantial improvements in soil moisture levels.
This projection implies that the current deficit is expected to persist, potentially impacting agricultural activities, water availability, and ecosystem health in the affected areas.
The lack of significant rainfall and continued dry weather patterns will likely exacerbate the existing soil moisture deficit, leading to further challenges in water resource management and agricultural productivity.
Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon, said:
Despite the increased forecast, this year’s harvest is expected to be the lowest since 2021, when 76.0 MMT were harvested. In 2024 Russia produced 82.6 MMT.