Evening Wrap: ASX 200 nails third record high close in four sessions on surging banking, uranium, and lithium stocks

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 75.1 points higher, up 0.89%.

Another record high close for the Australian stock market on a total return basis (i.e., adding back dividends). President Trump's trade war appears to be a distant memory (and no doubt your super fund is reaping the benefits!).

The financial sector once again led the way with solid gains across banks and insurers (Zip Co. (ZIP) stole the show with a massive 13.6% jump), but this was all a sideshow compared to the heroics in uranium and lithium stocks = 🚀+🚀!

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200, and Lithium Carbonate in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Today in Review

Wed 04 Jun 25, 5:08pm (AEST)

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 75.1 points higher at 8,541.8, 0.89% from its session low and just 0.06% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a fitting 203 to 82.

Another record high close for the Australian stock market on a total return basis (i.e., adding back dividends). That's the third in four trading sessions as President Trump's trade war appears to be a distant memory (and no doubt your super fund is reaping the benefits!).

The financial sector once again led the way with gains of approx. 1% plus in the big banks and insurers (Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) (+3.6%) and QBE Insurance (QBE) (+2.1%), but Zip Co. (ZIP) stole the show with a massive 13.6% jump on...no news...!

But this was all a sideshow compared to the heroics in uranium and lithium stocks. For uranium, the news that Facebook owner Meta has signed a 20-year purchase power agreement with US-based nuclear energy producer Constellation sent that sector rocketing, Paladin Energy (PDN) (+9.8%) and Boss Energy (BOE) (+7.8%) the major beneficiaries.

In lithium, it was a rebound in the beaten down lithium carbonate price today in China that restoke animal spirits in the decimated sector. The benchmark July contract clawed its way back above CNY 60k / tonne in today’s trade and this helped the likes of Mineral Resources (MIN) (+9.2%) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (+5.7%) claw back some of their substantial recent lost ground.

Lithium Carbonate Futures (Benchmark month, back-adjusted) GFEX intraday chart. Source: SMM

There were few weak spots today, with just the Gold sub-index (XGD) (-0.91%) taking a breather after its recent strong run.

Best and worst of the biggies summarised in the tables below...🧐

Today's blue-chip best

Today's blue-chip worst

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

Demand-side control is intact ✅ (click here for full size image)

Solid enough last night. White-bodied candle closing close to the session’s high. Sure there was a smidge of a pushback into the close, but nothing very surprising given the 19415 point of supply remains in play.

A boring candle. A candle that adds nothing new to our demand-supply narrative apart from, well…there’s further proof that what we think is happening – is actually happening.

All is good in the world. And will remain that way...

Until we find supply…and then there will be consternation and some gnashing of teeth! 😬

Hahaha, hardly! We will call it as we see it based upon the candle when that comes…knowing that no trend persists forever. 🧘

For now, though, there’s very little to add to my previous Comp analysis. It would be nice to see an emphatic close above that pesky 19415 level. It would surely break the back of any lingering supply remaining between here and the all time high – where we’d be kidding ourselves to think there won’t be a decent whack of it.

Demand is at the 30-May low / point of demand at 18847 (not labelled in the chart to minimise clutter). Beneath it is 18599. That zone, i.e., 18599-18847 is going to be crucial going forward – mainly because it overlaps with the dynamic excess demand we’d ordinarily expect at the short term uptrend ribbon.

And so, my conclusion is: Demand-side control is intact. I’m staying the course here. I see no reason for concern until the Comp closes below 18599-18847 / short term uptrend ribbon, or prints a massive supply-side candle, or prints lower peaks.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Tin-pot no more!!! 💪 (click here for full size image)

Every now and then our little tin-pot market surprises me. It probably surprised you today, too 🤯.

That last candle is as pretty as a picture – a picture of demand-side control – that is!

If you’re sitting on stock, then you just got convinced you might as well hold on for more.

Think about what that does for market supply. That’s right, it creates a vacuum until at least the all time high of 8616 (same logic applied to the Comp only ours is now much closer!).

If there’s sufficient demand in the system (and everything tells us there is), then there’s a higher probability the XJO goes higher than it goes lower.

Of course, 8616 is just a number. We shouldn’t get too transfixed by it – after all we know from previous discussions here that on a total return basis, the ASX 200 is well above its all time highs.

But there may be a few traders and a few non-believing fundies that might have a few sell orders cued up there.

We’ll see. Because there’s no point predicting, nobody can tell the future 🔮.

The best we can do is react. React to the current clearly signalled environment of demand-side control:

Rising short and long term trends, short and long term uptrends acting as zones of dynamic excess demand

Price action is rising peaks and rising troughs (i.e., signalling demand reinforcement and supply removal)

Predominance of demand-side candles (i.e., white-bodied and or downward pointing shadows) (i.e., signalling buy the dip activity and the prevalence of programmed buy orders).

And as a result, simply stay the course here until we see any of the opposites of the above. It’s that simple (did you think trading was all about 10 x big screen monitors, thousands of charts, and myriads flashing numbers? 🚫)

Lithium Carbonate Futures (Benchmark month, back-adjusted) GFEX

Blip! (click here for full size image)

Blip! That's all it took for local lithium stocks to get very excited today. It's not a terrible blip at all, though...it's just so far away from being anything that resembles a new trend...it's not funny.

No, there's nothing funny at all about the plight of ASX lithium investors 😭! It's been a darn hard time.

Of course, if you've been following ChartWatch for any length of time, then you wouldn't know any of that pain – because ChartWatch ASX Scans has done nothing but call short after short in that sector (collectively, I want to say a few hundred times) over the last 12 months.

There might come a time, heck – I hope there comes a time – when I am again singing the praises of the likes of PLS, LTR, IGO, MIN, and whoever is left standing (or that hasn't switched back to gold!). For I don't care which way these stocks trend – up or down – merely that they are doing one or the other.

An interesting move today, both in the lithium carbonate chart, and in ASX lithium stocks – one to note, sure – but not one to act upon just yet if my trend following model is anything to go by. Stay tuned! 👀

Economy

Today

• AUS Gross Domestic Product (GDP) March q/q

  • +0.2% vs +0.4% q/q forecast and +0.6% q/q December

  • Marked slowdown vs December quarter as lingering impacts of high interest rates (March quarter was yet to feel full impact of Feb 18 first 0.25% rate cut), plus weather disruptions (Cyclone Alfred in March) dragged on output

  • At 1.3% p.a. growth, below long term trend growth of around 3%

  • Very backward looking data though! Markets won't pay a great deal of attention to this, particularly given so much has occurred since (Trump trade war plus another 0.25% rate cut).

Later this week

Wednesday

• 00:00 USA JOLTS Job Openings May (7.11 million forecast vs 7.19 million in April)

• 11:30 AUS Gross Domestic Product (GDP) March q/q (+0.4% q/q forecast vs +0.6% q/q December)

Thursday

• 00:00 ISM Services PMI May (52.1 forecast vs 51.6 in April)

• 22:15 EUR Main Refinancing Rate & Monetary Policy Statement (-0.25% to 2.15% forecast)

Friday

• 00:00 USA Non-Farm Employment Data May

  • Employment Change m/m: +130,000 forecast vs +177,000 in April

  • Average Hourly Earnings m/m: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in April)

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.2% forecast, unchanged from April

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More News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +38.1% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) – ABL Binding Commitment and 2025 AGM Presentation Materials.

• +26.1% Dateline Resources (DTR) – No news since 02-Jun Potential Cluster of Breccia Pipes at Colosseum, today's move is consistent with recent volatility, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +25.7% Elsight (ELS) – Elsight signed additional contract of US$5.08M, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +13.6% Zip Co. (ZIP) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +13.5% Santana Minerals (SMI) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +12.5% Droneshield (DRO) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.6% Pointsbet (PBH) – Improved MIXI Proposal & Updated Scheme Meeting Date.

• +9.8% Paladin Energy (PDN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, whole sector got a boost today on news that Meta has signed a 20-year purchase power agreement with US-based nuclear energy producer Constellation.

• +9.2% Mineral Resources (MIN) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +9.1% Lovisa (LOV) – Global CEO and Exec Deputy Chairman Appointment, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.9% Silex Systems (SLX) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +8.2% Iperionx (IPX) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.9% Aurelia Metals (AMI) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.8% Appen (APX) – No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• +7.4% Boss Energy (BOE) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.2% BetaShares Global Uranium ETF (URN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +7.1% MTM Critical Metals (MTM) – Continued positive response to 03-Jun High-Grade Antimony Recovered at 98% from U.S. E-Waste, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.1% Catapult Group International (CAT) – No news, general strength across the broader Industrials sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.9% Bannerman Energy (BMN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +6.4% Core Lithium (CXO) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +6.4% Chalice Mining (CHN) – No news 🤔.

• +6.1% Nexgen Energy (NXG) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +6.1% Liontown Resources (LTR) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.9% Deep Yellow (DYL) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.9% Lotus Resources (LOT) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +5.7% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

Trading lower

• -9.8% Redox (RDX) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.1% Meeka Metals (MEK) – No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -5.9% Strike Energy (STX) – Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer Appointment, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.3% Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) – Mayne Pharma receives purported notice to terminate SID.

• -4.9% Nufarm (NUF) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

Australian Clinical Labs (ACL)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $3.80

AGL Energy (AGL)

• Initiated at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.00

Auckland International Airport (AIA)

• Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $6.68

Atlas Arteria (ALX)

• Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $5.22

Amcor (AMC)

• Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $15.90

Aspen Group (APZ)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.90 from $3.05

Autosports Group (ASG)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.800

ASX (ASX)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $71.20 from $68.50

Aurizon (AZJ)

• Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $3.40

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $48.70

Brambles (BXB)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $22.07

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure/Notes (DBI)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $4.35

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $23.82 from $31.82

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $18.80

Graincorp (GNC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.85 from $7.45

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.00 from $8.95

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.75

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.95 from $8.60

Healius (HLS)

• Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $0.920

IDP Education (IEL)

• Downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $4.00 from $15.00

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $6.95 from $17.35

• Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $4.25 from $11.90

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.40 from $16.00

• Downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.25 from $17.95

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Morgans; Price Target: $4.15 from $13.00

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.00 from $15.50

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.95 from $12.00

Judo Capital (JDO)

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $2.15

• Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $2.15

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.750 from $1.700

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.20

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.20

James Hardie Industries (JHX)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $39.80

• Retained at outperform at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $53.00

Kelsian Group (KLS)

• Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $4.55

LGI (LGI)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.60

Lovisa (LOV)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $25.86

Nufarm (NUF)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.20

Orora (ORA)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $2.52

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $11.50

Pioneer Credit (PNC)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.800

Qantas Airways (QAN)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $10.54

Qube (QUB)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $4.45

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $119.00 from $123.00

Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $24.53

Transurban Group (TCL)

• Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $13.16

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $8.68 from $10.50

• Downgraded to overweight from buy at Jarden; Price Target: $10.60 from $13.90

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $12.00 from $15.00

• Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $11.50 from $11.70

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $11.06 from $13.43

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.50

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $10.80 from $11.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $12.00 from $14.00

West African Resources (WAF)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.30 from $4.55

Scans

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Top Fallers

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52 Week Highs

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52 Week Lows

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Near Highs

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

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