US natural gas prices ease on profit-taking after hitting over 2-month high
U.S. natural gas futures fell on Thursday as traders booked profits, after prices hit a more than two-month high following a government report showing a smaller-than-expected storage build.
Front-month gas futures for November delivery 
NG1! on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 3.4 cents, or about 1%, to settle at $3.442 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The contract hit its highest level since July 18 earlier in the session.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 53 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended September 26. That was smaller than the 68 bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with a boost of 54 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2020-2024) average build of 85 bcf for this time of year.
"The market definitely got a boost as the injection into inventory was much smaller than expected. It was a big miss... and I think what we're seeing here is that the demand for fuels was higher than expected last week," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group.
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through at least October 16.
The November contract is expected to find support around $3.40 and will likely trade within a range of $3.36 to $3.47, said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 101.5 bcfd this week to 99.2 bcfd next week.
Meanwhile, U.S. LNG exports hit a record in September at 9.4 million metric tons, beating their previous record of 9.3 million metric tons in August, according to preliminary data from LSEG.
Demand for LNG as a marine fuel will at least double by 2030 as abundant supply and rising emissions regulations spur orders for ships that can run on it, industry executives said.
Elsewhere, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were little changed early on Thursday as lower LNG supply due to a strike in France was offset by weaker demand from power plants amid strong wind power output.
Week ended Sep 26 Actual | Week ended Sep 19 Actual | Year ago Sep 26 | Five-year average Sep 26 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +53 | +75 | +54 | +85 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,561 | 3,508 | 3,540 | 3,390 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +5% | +6.1% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub | 3.46 | 3.38 | 2.57 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) | 10.05 | 10.73 | 12.89 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) | 11.04 | 11.05 | 13.35 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 64 | 54 | 54 | 77 | 92 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 76 | 83 | 74 | 59 | 46 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 140 | 137 | 128 | 136 | 138 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 107.2 | 107.2 | 107.7 | 101.4 | 98.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.0 | 6.8 | 7.2 | N/A | 7.4 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 114.3 | 114.1 | 114.9 | N/A | 105.5 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | N/A | 2.2 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.9 | 6.8 | 6.9 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 15.6 | 16.1 | 15.9 | 12.1 | 11.3 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 6.9 |
U.S. Residential | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 7.1 |
U.S. Power Plant | 41.6 | 38.4 | 34.5 | 37.9 | 31.7 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.1 | 21.9 | 22.2 | 21.9 | 22.4 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 79.8 | 76.5 | 74.2 | 76.3 | 76.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 105.3 | 101.5 | 99.2 | N/A | 95.9 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 92 | 92 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 86 | 86 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 88 | 88 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 3 | Week ended Sep 26 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 7 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 45 | 45 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 17 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) | 3.24 | 3.12 | |||
Transco Z6 New York (NG-CG-NY-SNL) | 1.55 | 1.70 | |||
PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) | 3.76 | 3.72 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) | 1.60 | 1.79 | |||
Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL) | 2.98 | 2.91 | |||
Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL) | 3.05 | 2.75 | |||
SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) | 3.23 | 3.11 | |||
Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) | -1.97 | -1.27 | |||
AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) | 0.34 | 0.03 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England (E-NEPLMHP-IDX) | 35.38 | 33.09 | |||
PJM West (E-PJWHDAP-IDX) | 44.25 | 49.92 | |||
Mid C (W-MIDCP-IDX) | 43.43 | 41.92 | |||
Palo Verde (W-PVP-IDX) | 23.88 | 20.88 | |||
SP-15 (W-SP15-IDX) | 21.38 | 20.60 |
