Bitcoin holds near $113,000 ahead of FOMC as traders await Powell’s guidance
Bitcoin is holding around $113,000 as global markets turn their focus to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s policy guidance later today, an event that some analysts say could shape the next move for risk assets.
According to The Block’s price page, BTC traded nearly flat following days of range-bound price action below $115,000. The broader crypto market also cooled ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with minor downturns across majors. Ethereum has hovered near $4,000, Solana around $195, and BNB at $1,115, leaving total crypto market capitalization near $3.9 trillion.
“Bitcoin holds the $113,000 support band as the market braces for today’s FOMC meeting,” said Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN. ETF activity remains constructive, he added, with Bitcoin ETFs pulling $202 million in inflows on Oct. 28 and Ethereum ETFs adding $246 million, marking four straight sessions of net buying.
The analyst noted that institutional appetite has re-emerged, though not to the intensity of earlier cycle rallies. “Demand is present but lacks the velocity to chase new highs without a dovish surprise from the Fed,” Misir said.
Fed and macro risks
Later today, the Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis-point cut, but observers see the real volatility in Powell’s post-meeting remarks.
“The big day is here,” said Nic Puckrin, co-founder of The Coin Bureau. “It’s still worth getting out the popcorn for Powell’s press conference, because it’s the rhetoric and forward guidance investors will be waiting for with bated breath.”
Puckrin called the moment a “tightrope act” between politics and data. “While the long-term investment case for Bitcoin remains intact, near-term leverage is risky — exchange volumes have collapsed and price action hints at a potential double top.”
The Block's data dashboard shows open interest in options near October peaks, leaving markets vulnerable to gamma-linked volatility if Powell surprises, BRN's Misir stated. Moreover, crypto sentiment seems tethered to the broader risk complex, shaped by cooling U.S. labor data and renewed U.S.–China trade talks. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Busan, South Korea, on Thursday to finalize a framework agreement on tariffs and port fees. The meeting could present a macro tailwind or headwind for risk assets, depending on the outcome, multiple analysts said.
BRN’s cost-basis heatmap shows heavy resistance near $117,000 and solid support around $111,000–$112,000, defining a narrow trading corridor ahead of the Fed's meeting. A decisive break above resistance could ignite the next leg up, Misir argued. Conversely, failure to hold support levels could spur a deeper correction below $110,000, he added. Nevertheless, Standard Chartered says BTC may never revisit price levels below $100,000 "if this week goes well," as The Block reported.
While expert consensus points to another rate cut, not all agree on its potential impact. In a Wednesday note, QCP Capital analysts said tonight’s FOMC is likely to be a non-event, with Powell unlikely to offer new forward guidance. The ongoing government shutdown has deprived policymakers of key inflation and labor indicators, leaving the central bank “effectively flying blind” and making any policy adjustment premature, according to the firm.
Beyond macro policy, QCP noted that enthusiasm in crypto remains muted. Analysts said the Oct. 10 flash crash left both retail and institutional participants cautious, with order-book liquidity still thin. Meanwhile, Digital Asset Treasury companies are adding to sell pressure as many trade below their net asset value. "If discounts persist, DATs may be forced into buybacks funded by asset sales, potentially adding another wave of supply to already thin markets," QCP wrote.
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