CapitalFlowsResearch: Returns Regime Map

CapitalFlowsResearch: Returns Regime Map — Two-Asset Behaviour & Correlation Lens

CapitalFlowsResearch: Returns Regime Map is a two-asset regime overlay that shows how a primary market and a linked macro series are really moving together over short rolling windows. Instead of just eyeballing two separate charts, the tool classifies each bar into one of four states based on the combined direction of recent returns:

Up / Up

Up / Down

Down / Up

Down / Down

These states are calculated from aggregated, windowed returns (using configurable return definitions for each asset), then painted directly onto the price chart as background regimes. On top of that, the indicator monitors the correlation of the same return streams and can optionally tint periods where correlation sits within a user-defined “low-correlation” band—highlighting moments when the usual relationship between the two series is weak, unstable, or breaking down.

In practice, this turns the chart into a compact co-movement map: you can see at a glance whether price and rates (or any two chosen markets) are trending together, diverging in a meaningful way, or moving in choppy, low-conviction fashion. It’s especially powerful for macro traders who need to frame trades in terms of “risk asset vs. rates,” “index vs. volatility,” or similar pairs—while keeping the actual construction details of the regime logic abstracted.