Dual Regime Strategy (DRS)

29 Nov 2023

/Introduction
The Dual Regime Strategy (DRS) is a composite strategy consisting of two signals, both catering to two different market regimes. The stock market experiences periods of high volatility followed by periods of low volatility, a mean reversion strategy performs well during periods of high volatility while a trend following strategy performs well during periods of low volatility. This is the basis for the mean reversion signal and the momentum signal.

/Signals
1. Mean Reversion Signal
Definition: Mean reversion is a financial theory that suggests that asset prices and financial markets tend to fluctuate around a long-term average or mean value. In other words, when the price of an asset moves significantly away from its historical average, it is likely to revert, or move back, towards that average over time.
Concept: Mean reversion assumes that extreme price movements are temporary and that there is an inherent tendency for prices to return to their historical average or equilibrium level. Traders and investors who follow mean reversion strategies often look for overbought or oversold conditions in the market to identify potential trading opportunities. They believe that when prices deviate too far from their mean, there is a higher probability of a reversal.
DRS strategy: The Keltner Channel is a volatility-based technical indicator that consists of three lines: an upper channel, a lower channel, and a middle channel. It is primarily used for mean reversion strategies. The strategy uses a Keltner channel to trigger the mean reversion signals by identifying potential overbought and oversold conditions.

2. Momentum Signal
Definition: Momentum, in the context of financial markets, refers to the tendency of assets to continue moving in the same direction as their recent past price movements. It is based on the idea that assets that have been performing well recently are more likely to continue performing well, and assets that have been performing poorly are more likely to continue performing poorly.
Concept: Momentum traders and investors seek to identify and ride existing price trends. They believe that there is a persistence in price movements, and they aim to capitalize on this persistence by buying assets that have shown recent strength and selling assets that have shown recent weakness.
DRS strategy: The Exponential Moving Average is used to identify the strength and direction of the existing trend. When the price remains above the moving average, it indicates bullish momentum and vice versa for bearish momentum.

/Results
The backtest results are based on a starting capital of $13,700 (convenient amount for retail traders) with 5% of equity for the position size and pyramiding of 2 to allow one open position at a time for each signal. Commissions vary from broker to broker and they are calculated in different ways so a simple $3 per order is used in backtesting this strategy. Slippage of 3 ticks is used to ensure the results are representative of real world, market order trading. The backtest results are available to view at the bottom of this page.

Note:
Past performance in backtesting does not guarantee future results. Broker execution and market changes can significantly affect strategy performance in live trading.

Originality:
The DRS strategy is unique in its combination of both Momentum Strategy and Mean Reversion Strategy components within a single trading strategy. This dual-regime approach allows the strategy to adapt to different market conditions. Additionally, it incorporates short positions for momentum signals, this ensures that the strategy remains active in bear markets.

1. Mean Reverting Regimes
In mean-reverting regimes, markets exhibit high volatility with prices oscillating around a historical average. The DRS employs the Keltner Channel as a core tool for identifying overbought and oversold conditions, which are prevalent in such regimes.

Detection: The strategy detects mean reverting opportunities when prices deviate significantly from the middle band of the Keltner Channel, signaling an overbought or oversold condition.

Execution: Trades are executed with the expectation that prices will revert to the mean. For example, buying when the price is below the lower band (oversold) and selling when it's above the upper band (overbought).

2. Trending Regimes
In trending regimes, markets move in a persistent direction, either up or down. The DRS utilizes the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to identify and follow these trends.

Trend Identification: The EMA helps in determining the overall direction of the trend, while the number of days price stays above the moving average indicates the strength of the trend.

Trade Execution: The strategy capitalizes on strong trends by taking positions in the direction of the trend (long positions in uptrends and short positions in downtrends).

/Tickers
This strategy has been backtested primarily on SPY. It also performs well on IWF and QQQ.