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Fundamental Macro Timeline & Forecast [100Zabaan]

🟢🟢 Fundamental Macro Timeline & Forecast 🟢🟢
This indicator is a macro-level fundamental analysis tool for major Forex currency pairs (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD). It displays five key economic indicators of both currencies in a table format, presented as an oscillator. The indicator is provided as closed-source and is designed solely for research and analysis purposes (no backtesting, no direct buy/sell signals). It is closed-source to protect our proprietary weighting algorithm for each indicator and to support planned expansion into larger projects; open-sourcing would compromise our business model.
Written in Pine Script™ v6
🟡 Concept of “Red Lines” in Economic Indicators
Central banks and policy authorities define target or “safe” ranges for each economic indicator. A sustained deviation beyond these ranges is considered a “red line” typically triggering monetary or fiscal policy responses. For example, the inflation red line in the United States is around 2%; if monthly or annual inflation exceeds this level, the Federal Reserve may implement contractionary measures (e.g., raising interest rates) to control inflation.
🟡 Indicator Inputs & Settings
🟡 Indicator Output
The indicator renders a dynamic table in the oscillator pane at the bottom of the chart, featuring five main columns:
Note: Forecast values range from 0 to 100, and values of exactly 0 or 100 are rare due to inherent uncertainty.
🟡 Forecast Logic
3. Combining Effects: The individual impacts of each indicator are aggregated to calculate the final probability of the base currency appreciating against the quote currency.
🟡 Practical Example
Assume your chart is set to the **USDJPY** currency pair:
We then apply the same adjustment process for the remaining three indicators to derive the final Forecast percentage, providing an overall view of the currency pair’s potential movement.
🟡 Important Notes
🔴 Developers: Mr. Mohammad sanaei, Mr. Peyman Mahdavi, Mrs. Hamideh Azari, Mr. Mohsen shabani, Mr. Moslem Balasi, Mr. Shahrokh Nakhaei
⭐️⭐️ Feel free to share your feedback in the comments ⭐️⭐️
این اندیکاتور با ترکیب پنج شاخص کلیدی اقتصادی، تصویری جامع از وضعیت بنیادین دو ارز اصلی ارائه میدهد و به معاملهگران کمک میکند تا تصمیمات خود را با توجه به تحولات پولی و مالی کشورها اتخاذ کنند.
🔴 توسعه دهندگان: محمد ثنائی، پیمان مهدوی، حمیده آذری، محسن شعبانی، مسلم بلاسی، شاهرخ نخعی
⭐️⭐️ لطفاً نظرات خود را در کامنتها با ما در میان بگذارید; از خواندن بازخوردهای شما خوشحال میشویم. ⭐️⭐️
This indicator is a macro-level fundamental analysis tool for major Forex currency pairs (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD). It displays five key economic indicators of both currencies in a table format, presented as an oscillator. The indicator is provided as closed-source and is designed solely for research and analysis purposes (no backtesting, no direct buy/sell signals). It is closed-source to protect our proprietary weighting algorithm for each indicator and to support planned expansion into larger projects; open-sourcing would compromise our business model.
Written in Pine Script™ v6
🟡 Concept of “Red Lines” in Economic Indicators
Central banks and policy authorities define target or “safe” ranges for each economic indicator. A sustained deviation beyond these ranges is considered a “red line” typically triggering monetary or fiscal policy responses. For example, the inflation red line in the United States is around 2%; if monthly or annual inflation exceeds this level, the Federal Reserve may implement contractionary measures (e.g., raising interest rates) to control inflation.
🟡 Indicator Inputs & Settings
- Language: Table language (English or Persian; default: English).
- Table Design: Layout orientation (horizontal or vertical).
- Display Yearly Averages: When enabled, displays both 1-year and 10-year averages for each indicator.
- Convert M1 to USD: When enabled, converts M1 money supply values to US dollars.
- Market Restriction: Operates only on Forex pairs combining the eight major currencies listed above. Displays a warning if an unsupported symbol is selected.
- Timeframes: Operates on timeframes from 1 minute up to Daily, with a recommendation to use Daily or Hourly charts.
🟡 Indicator Output
The indicator renders a dynamic table in the oscillator pane at the bottom of the chart, featuring five main columns:
- Current Values: The latest value of each indicator (interest rate, monthly inflation rate, GDP growth rate, M1 money supply, unemployment rate) for both currencies in the selected pair.
- Previous Values: The prior period’s value for each indicator.
- Average (1 Year): The 1-year average for each indicator (if enabled).
- Average (10 Years):** The 10-year average for each indicator (if enabled).
- Forecast (%): The percentage likelihood of the base currency (left side of the pair) appreciating against the quote currency (right side), based on the combined impact of the five indicators.
Note: Forecast values range from 0 to 100, and values of exactly 0 or 100 are rare due to inherent uncertainty.
🟡 Forecast Logic
- Baseline Assumption: A 50% probability that either currency will appreciate.
- Adjustment Based on Deviations from “Red Lines”: Each economic indicator influences the forecast according to its deviation from long-term target ranges:
- Inflation: Sustained inflation above the target (e.g., 2% in the US) typically prompts contractionary measures (rate hikes), strengthening the currency.
- Interest Rate: Higher interest rates generally attract foreign investment and strengthen the currency.
- GDP Growth: Positive GDP growth signals a strong economy and typically strengthens the currency.
- Money Supply (M1): High money supply growth can lead to inflation, weakening the currency over the long term.
- Unemployment Rate: High unemployment indicates economic weakness and usually weakens the currency.
3. Combining Effects: The individual impacts of each indicator are aggregated to calculate the final probability of the base currency appreciating against the quote currency.
🟡 Practical Example
Assume your chart is set to the **USDJPY** currency pair:
- Step 1 (US Inflation): Monthly inflation in the United States is -0.15%. We infer that the Federal Reserve will likely implement expansionary policies (rate cuts or money supply increases) to counter deflation. Consequently:
We reduce the probability of the **US Dollar** appreciating against the Yen from 50% to 45%.
We increase the probability of the **Japanese Yen** appreciating against the Dollar to 55%.
- Step 2 (Japan Inflation): Monthly inflation in Japan is 0.4%. We infer that the Bank of Japan will implement contractionary policies (rate hikes) to control inflation. Therefore:
We reduce the probability of the US Dollar appreciating against the Yen from 45% to 40%.
We increase the probability of the Japanese Yen appreciating against the Dollar to 60%.
We then apply the same adjustment process for the remaining three indicators to derive the final Forecast percentage, providing an overall view of the currency pair’s potential movement.
🟡 Important Notes
- Supplementary Tool: This indicator is a complementary tool for fundamental analysis only. Forecasts are not definitive and may evolve with different time horizons.
- No Backtesting: Designed solely for economic research; it does not include strategy results or backtesting data.
- Combined Use:n Employ this indicator alongside other fundamental and technical analysis methods; it is not a standalone solution.
🔴 Developers: Mr. Mohammad sanaei, Mr. Peyman Mahdavi, Mrs. Hamideh Azari, Mr. Mohsen shabani, Mr. Moslem Balasi, Mr. Shahrokh Nakhaei
⭐️⭐️ Feel free to share your feedback in the comments ⭐️⭐️
این اندیکاتور با ترکیب پنج شاخص کلیدی اقتصادی، تصویری جامع از وضعیت بنیادین دو ارز اصلی ارائه میدهد و به معاملهگران کمک میکند تا تصمیمات خود را با توجه به تحولات پولی و مالی کشورها اتخاذ کنند.
🔴 توسعه دهندگان: محمد ثنائی، پیمان مهدوی، حمیده آذری، محسن شعبانی، مسلم بلاسی، شاهرخ نخعی
⭐️⭐️ لطفاً نظرات خود را در کامنتها با ما در میان بگذارید; از خواندن بازخوردهای شما خوشحال میشویم. ⭐️⭐️
Skrip dilindungi
Skrip ini diterbitkan sebagai sumber tertutup. Akan tetapi, anda boleh menggunakannya dengan percuma dan tanpa had – ketahui lebih lanjut di sini.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Skrip dilindungi
Skrip ini diterbitkan sebagai sumber tertutup. Akan tetapi, anda boleh menggunakannya dengan percuma dan tanpa had – ketahui lebih lanjut di sini.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.