Advanced Economic Indicator by USCG_Vet

15 Okt

Advanced Economic Indicator by USCG_Vet
tldr:
This comprehensive TradingView indicator combines multiple economic and financial metrics into a single, customizable composite index. By integrating key indicators such as the yield spread, commodity ratios, stock indices, and the Federal Reserve's QE/QT activities, it provides a holistic view of the economic landscape. Users can adjust the components and their weights to tailor the indicator to their analysis, aiding in forecasting economic conditions and market trends.


Detailed Description
Overview
The Advanced Economic Indicator is designed to provide traders and investors with a powerful tool to assess the overall economic environment. By aggregating a diverse set of economic indicators and financial market data into a single composite index, it helps identify potential turning points in the economy and financial markets.

Key Features:

Comprehensive Coverage: Includes 14 critical economic and financial indicators.
Customizable Components: Users can select which indicators to include.
Adjustable Weights: Assign weights to each component based on perceived significance.
Visual Signals: Clear plotting with threshold lines and background highlights.
Alerts: Set up alerts for when the composite index crosses user-defined thresholds.

Included Indicators
Yield Spread (10-Year Treasury Yield minus 3-Month Treasury Yield)
Copper/Gold Ratio
High Yield Spread (HYG/IEF Ratio)
Stock Market Performance (S&P 500 Index - SPX)
Bitcoin Performance (BLX)
Crude Oil Prices (CL1!)
Volatility Index (VIX)
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Inflation Expectations (TIP ETF)
Consumer Confidence (XLY ETF)
Housing Market Index (XHB)
Manufacturing PMI (XLI ETF)
Unemployment Rate (Inverse SPY as Proxy)
Federal Reserve QE/QT Activities (Fed Balance Sheet - WALCL)

How to Use the Indicator

Configuring the Indicator:
Open Settings: Click on the gear icon (⚙️) next to the indicator's name.
Inputs Tab: You'll find a list of all components with checkboxes and weight inputs.
Including/Excluding Components
Checkboxes: Check or uncheck the box next to each component to include or exclude it from the composite index.
Default State: By default, all components are included.

Adjusting Component Weights:
Weight Inputs: Next to each component's checkbox is a weight input field.
Default Weights: Pre-assigned based on economic significance but fully adjustable.
Custom Weights: Enter your desired weight for each component to reflect your analysis.

Threshold Settings:
Bearish Threshold: Default is -1.0. Adjust to set the level below which the indicator signals potential economic downturns.
Bullish Threshold: Default is 1.0. Adjust to set the level above which the indicator signals potential economic upswings.

Setting the Timeframe:
Weekly Timeframe Recommended: Due to the inclusion of the Fed's balance sheet data (updated weekly), it's best to use this indicator on a weekly chart.
Changing Timeframe: Select 1W (weekly) from the timeframe options at the top of the chart.

Interpreting the Indicator:
Composite Index Line
Plot: The blue line represents the composite economic indicator.
Movement: Observe how the line moves relative to the threshold lines.

Threshold Lines
Zero Line (Gray Dotted): Indicates the neutral point.
Bearish Threshold (Red Dashed): Crossing below suggests potential economic weakness.
Bullish Threshold (Green Dashed): Crossing above suggests potential economic strength.

Background Highlights
Red Background: When the composite index is below the bearish threshold.
Green Background: When the composite index is above the bullish threshold.
No Color: When the composite index is between the thresholds.

Understanding the Components
1. Yield Spread
Description: The difference between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields.
Economic Significance: An inverted yield curve (negative spread) has historically preceded recessions.
2. Copper/Gold Ratio
Description: The price ratio of copper to gold.
Economic Significance: Copper is tied to industrial demand; gold is a safe-haven asset. The ratio indicates risk sentiment.
3. High Yield Spread (HYG/IEF Ratio)
Description: Ratio of high-yield corporate bonds (HYG) to intermediate-term Treasury bonds (IEF).
Economic Significance: Reflects investor appetite for risk; widening spreads can signal credit stress.
4. Stock Market Performance (SPX)
Description: S&P 500 Index levels.
Economic Significance: Broad measure of U.S. equity market performance.
5. Bitcoin Performance (BLX)
Description: Bitcoin Liquid Index price.
Economic Significance: Represents risk appetite in speculative assets.
6. Crude Oil Prices (CL1!)
Description: Front-month crude oil futures price.
Economic Significance: Influences inflation and consumer spending.
7. Volatility Index (VIX)
Description: Market's expectation of volatility (fear gauge).
Economic Significance: High VIX indicates market uncertainty; inverted in the indicator to align directionally.
8. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Description: Value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.
Economic Significance: Affects international trade and commodity prices; inverted in the indicator.
9. Inflation Expectations (TIP ETF)
Description: iShares TIPS Bond ETF prices.
Economic Significance: Reflects market expectations of inflation.
10. Consumer Confidence (XLY ETF)
Description: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund prices.
Economic Significance: Proxy for consumer confidence and spending.
11. Housing Market Index (XHB)
Description: SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF prices.
Economic Significance: Indicator of the housing market's health.
12. Manufacturing PMI (XLI ETF)
Description: Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund prices.
Economic Significance: Proxy for manufacturing activity.
13. Unemployment Rate (Inverse SPY as Proxy)
Description: Inverse of the SPY ETF price.
Economic Significance: Represents unemployment trends; higher inverse SPY suggests higher unemployment.
14. Federal Reserve QE/QT Activities (Fed Balance Sheet - WALCL)
Description: Total assets held by the Federal Reserve.
Economic Significance: Indicates liquidity injections (QE) or withdrawals (QT); impacts interest rates and asset prices.

Customization and Advanced Usage
Adjusting Weights:
Purpose: Emphasize components you believe are more predictive or relevant.
Method: Increase or decrease the weight value next to each component.
Example: If you think the yield spread is particularly important, you might assign it a higher weight.



Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading and investing involve risks, including possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own analysis and consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.