Value Investing Indicator

20 jam lalu

This is based on PeterNagy Indicator. I just update it from v.4 to v.6 and modify. Open for tweak

19 jam lalu

Nota Keluaran

Credit to PeterNagy. This Approach:

1. Asset-Based Intrinsic Value
- Using Total Assets / Shares Outstanding is actually a conservative, legitimate approach:
- It's essentially "liquidation value" - what shareholders would get if company
was sold for asset value
- Benjamin Graham used similar asset-based approaches
- Good for finding deeply undervalued companies trading below book value
2. The Three Main Criteria Make Sense:
- Valuation: Price < Asset value (fundamental requirement)
- Pricing: P/E × P/B < 22.5 (classic Buffett/Graham limit)
- Debt Risk: D/E < 1.0 (ensures financial stability)
3. Additional Criteria Are Sound:
- P/E < 15, P/B < 1.5 (classic value thresholds)
- Growth requirements (EPS, Revenue)
- No recent losses (quality filter)
- Share count stability (dilution protection)

⚠️ Potential Issues & Limitations:

1. Asset-Based Valuation Limitations:
- Works best for asset-heavy businesses (banks, real estate, manufacturing)
- Poor for tech/service companies where value is in intangibles
- Book value can be inflated by goodwill/intangibles
- Doesn't consider earning power or future cash flows
2. Overly Conservative:
- May miss great companies trading at fair value
- Asset-based approach often undervalues growing businesses
- Could screen out quality companies with strong moats
3. Missing Key Metrics:
- No ROE/ROA analysis (return on assets/equity)
- No free cash flow evaluation
- No competitive moat assessment
- No management quality factors

- Best for: Finding severely undervalued, asset-rich companies
- Works well for: Banks, real estate, manufacturing, distressed situations
- Poor for: Tech, growth stocks, service businesses
- Risk: May find "value traps" (cheap for good reason)

💡 Suggestions for Improvement:

1. Add ROE filter (>10-15%)
2. Include free cash flow yield
3. Add revenue/earnings quality checks
4. Consider adding a DCF component for growth companies

19 jam lalu

Nota Keluaran

⏺ 📊 Latest Update: Buffett Limit Integration

I've just added comprehensive Warren Buffett-style conservative buying limits to
the Enhanced Value Investing Toolkit. Here's what's new:

🎯 Core Buffett Limit Feature

Concept: Buffett's 70% rule - Never pay more than 70% of a stock's intrinsic
value to maintain a 30% margin of safety.

Three Buffett Limits Calculated:
1. Asset Buffett Limit = Asset Intrinsic Value × 0.70
2. Earnings Buffett Limit = Earnings Intrinsic Value × 0.70
3. FCF Buffett Limit = Free Cash Flow Intrinsic Value × 0.70

🔍 Smart Analysis System

Investment Classifications:
- Conservative: Pass earnings limit (most strict)
- Moderate: Pass FCF limit (balanced approach)
- Aggressive: Pass asset limit (most lenient)

Buffett Score: 0-3 points based on how many limits current price passes

📈 Enhanced Scoring & Recommendations

Updated Total Score: Now 0-16+ points (added 3 Buffett bonus points)

New Investment Thresholds:
- Excellent (13+ points): Must have quality + value + Buffett compliance (2+
limits)
- Good (10+ points): Must pass at least 1 Buffett limit
- Acceptable (6+ points): Basic criteria

📋 Comprehensive Info Display

New Buffett Section Shows:
- All three limit values with ✅/❌ indicators
- Current price vs each limit
- Smart interpretation messages
- Enhanced valuation summary

🎯 Example for BBRI (Based on Your Data)

With current price of 4,180:
- Asset Limit: 9,791 ✅ (Deep undervalued)
- Earnings Limit: 4,189 ⚠️ (Almost at limit)
- FCF Limit: 9,120 ✅ (Good value)

Result: "Moderate: Good margin of safety ✅" (2/3 limits passed)

💡 Key Benefits

1. Conservative Approach: Follows Buffett's actual investment philosophy
2. Multiple Perspectives: Asset vs Earnings vs FCF-based analysis
3. Clear Guidance: Tells you exactly when a stock offers true margin of safety
4. Risk Management: Prevents overpaying even for "good" companies
5. Professional Analysis: Same framework used by successful value investors