(FireflyTA) Market Flow COG (Overlay)

8 Mei 2021

Market Flow COG (Overlay)

Market Flow COG in the "Overlay" version offers you a variety of modules to do analysis on the market flow. I'm using my own definition of market flow since I'm actively doing scientific research on that topic and developing concepts and tools around it.

This indicator is best used together with Market Flow COG (Oscillator), which is also public.


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About Market Flow

The market flow is a concept describing the directional force driving price movement that a market experiences based on term-specific (short-, mid- and long-term) momentum as well as dynamic range support and resistance.

In a strong uptrend for example, market flow is upwards, so dynamic range S&R (i.e. Bollinger Bands) is flowing upwards, too. This is increasing the probability to see continuation after dips. In a shifting trend, it is possible to observe market flow still continuing upwards, because the the flow is only changing slowly. Momentum takes a while to run out and exert pressure into the other direction. This phenomenon can be observed on all timeframes in high-volume markets, even more so on the higher timeframes.

Given the complex nature of market flow, there is still a lack of tools available to properly examine it and to derive appropriate trading decisions.

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About Market Flow COG

This indicator allows you to look at various different aspects to market flow. Additional ones might be added in future updates. In this first release, the following are included. Browse the update notes below for further modules added later.

• Center of Gravity (COG)
  
• Deviation Bands
  
• Trend EMAs
  

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About "Center of Gravity"

The COG is an entity that is pulling price back to it frequently (this is why it is called Center of Gravity) as the law of mean reversion dictates. Mean reversion can be loosely broken up into mean reversion on multiple timeframes, and the COGs are included for ULT (ultra low, 15-60m), L (low, 1h-4h), M (medium, 6h-12H) and H (higher, 1D+) timeframes. As this entity is a new development in TA there is still a lack of scientific evidence that it is reliable. However, if you look at the charts, you will notice that price action will respect this entity and circle around it on the appropriate timeframes most of the time.

The COG is similar to a Bollinger Band, it is using volatility as its main component. However, COGs are aggregated entities looking at more timeframes at the same time, so besides the Time X Volatility perspective that is provided by Bollinger Bands, this entity adds a third dimension by looking at multiple timeframes. The COG is the mean of all the BBs that are included in the calculation, which can be a large number. This makes a COG a meta-analytic entity that is more sensitive to market price action.

The COG helps you in identifying how far and for how long price has been overextended to one side beyond the means. In theory, the probabilities increase dramatically to see a mean reversion to the COG. Watching price interacting with the COG should make clear that the correlations are significant, however there might be differences based on the markets used. The COGs have primarily been tested with the BTCUSD market and for crypto in general.

A way to trade based on COGs is to look for weakness (if price is above the COG) or strength (if price is below the COG) in price action while it is approaching S&R. If signs of accumulation or distribution arise, and the distance to the COG is meaningful (as well as being maintained for a few candles), it can provide additional backing for your long/short scalping and swing trading ideas. I'd recommend to always use the COG in combination with your knowledge on price action.

By using all COGs at the same time for ULTF, LTF, MTF and HTF you can get a feeling for where price is in the context overall market flow.

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Deviation Bands

The Deviation Bands are fib-based deviations of the COG that is chosen with the 'mode' setting (i.e. LTF). When this module is enabled, the deviation bands are plotted around the COG of that timeframe mode. The deviations can be adjusted manually as well by changing the values in the indicator UI. The main purpose of these bands is to identify the structure of price movements in relation to the COG distance, i.e. analyzing how long price can maintain levels in an area >X or <Y away from the COG.

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Trend EMAs

The Trend EMA module allows you to plot ULTF, LTF, MTF and HTF trend EMA entities which are colored as follows in the release version (for changes, have a look at the update notes):

• Teal: Price is in a strong uptrend
  
• Green: Price is in an uptrend
  
• White: Price is in a sideways phase
  
• Orange: Price is in a downtrend
  
• Red: Price is in a strong downtrend
  

Watching the Trend EMAs can help in order to identify shifting markets (in which price tends to switch sides with the COGs as well). Trend is also a core component of market flow and should be taken into account when interpreting price action.

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How to Use

You can find in-depth tutorials on how to use this indicator by browsing the links and resources in my signature.