UTFS V2 | QR

UTFS V2 | QR

What it is
UTFS V2 | QR (Universal Trend Following Strategy – Version 2) is a multi-component, adaptive trend system designed to work across almost any asset class — including crypto, equities, commodities, and forex.
Its “universal” design comes from its modular structure: instead of being optimized for a single market, it combines three independent, general-purpose trend modules that each react to different aspects of price behavior. By averaging their outputs, UTFS V2 filters out much of the market noise and improves clarity and reliability of the overall signal.

How it works
UTFS V2 fuses three adaptive engines into one Trend Probability Index (TPI).
Each module outputs +1 (bullish), −1 (bearish), or 0 (neutral).
The average of these three signals becomes the composite TPI.
This averaging approach is what gives the strategy its name Universal: it smooths out conflicting short-term readings and reduces false triggers across different market environments.
1) AVWO — Adaptive VWMA Oscillator
Measures how far price deviates from its volume-weighted moving average.
Thresholds expand and contract automatically with volatility.
Detects sustained expansions above or below “fair value.”
2) ARSI — Adaptive RSI Baseline Filter
Uses RSI-derived sensitivity to build a dynamic baseline of momentum.
Flags overbought or oversold conditions only when momentum confirms direction.
Provides a smoother and more adaptive alternative to raw RSI signals.
3) Median–Volatility Engine
Combines a VWMA-median structure with ATR and standard deviation filters.
Validates uptrends when price expands above volatility bands while VWMA rises.
Detects breakdowns when price moves below lower ATR/SD limits.

TPI aggregation → trading logic
TPI = (AVWO + ARSI + MedianVol) / 3
Enter Long when TPI > T_up
Exit to Cash when TPI < T_d
No short exposure is taken by default, focusing instead on trend participation and capital preservation.
What you see on the chart
TPI Column Plot: green for bullish, red for bearish, gray for neutral.
Live trend gauge (table): displays current state (“Bullish / Bearish / Do nothing”) and a compact bar gauge proportional to trend strength.
Optional performance table (via Rocheur/Metric) showing return, Sharpe, Sortino, Omega, and drawdown.
Clean visual layout: all outputs are self-contained for easy interpretation.

Why it’s called Universal
Most strategies rely on parameters tuned to one specific market. UTFS V2 is built differently —
its averaging mechanism and adaptive thresholds make it applicable to a wide range of instruments and timeframes without re-optimization.
Because the TPI reflects a consensus of three uncorrelated engines, it delivers a clearer, more stable signal that adapts to both high- and low-volatility assets.
Inputs you can tune
Thresholds: Up Threshold (T_up) and Down Threshold (T_d)
AVWO parameters: VWMA length, threshold period, multipliers, adaptive smoothing
ARSI parameters: RSI length, MA length, threshold length, multipliers, alpha
Median/Volatility parameters: VWMA & median lengths, ATR & SD multipliers
Visual controls: color mode, table display, and performance curve selection
Backtest window: start and end times

How to use it
Apply to any market (crypto, stock, index, commodity, forex).
Use higher timeframes for strategic trend detection.
Trade only when TPI is clearly positive or negative; stay neutral otherwise.
Adjust thresholds to tune sensitivity — wider thresholds for smoother signals, tighter for faster reactions.
Monitor the table for current bias and historical performance.
Originality & strengths
Multi-engine averaging: smooths out conflicting short-term noise, resulting in more reliable, higher-clarity regime signals.
Adaptive thresholds: each module self-adjusts to volatility, reducing parameter sensitivity.
Universality: proven design concept that operates consistently across assets without asset-specific tuning.
Self-contained: no external dependencies, full visual and performance diagnostics on one chart.
Limitations & best practices
No strategy fits all markets perfectly; adjust lookbacks for your timeframe and volatility.
Very strong trends can hold the TPI at extremes for extended periods; treat exits contextually.
In sideways markets, neutral (gray) zones indicate low conviction — use them to reduce exposure.
Always validate parameters on out-of-sample data.
Chart-publishing guidance
Use a clean chart with UTFS V2 alone for clarity.
If you add any drawings, they should only illustrate TPI behavior or signal transitions.

Disclaimer
This strategy is for research and educational purposes only and not financial advice.
Markets carry risk, including loss of capital.
Past performance does not predict or guarantee future results.
Always backtest and manage risk appropriately before live use.