Dot On Plan | Economic Cycle Analysis v2.4

This closed-source script applies a structured macroeconomic model to classify economic regimes in real time, using inter-asset ratios and yield spreads. It helps traders and analysts interpret broader market conditions—such as expansion, stagflation, deflation, or supply shocks—through well-established market proxies.

🔍 Core Metrics and Logic
The script tracks the following macro indicators:
- **Copper/Oil Ratio**: A proxy for industrial activity vs. energy costs (Copper futures ÷ Oil futures). A rising ratio signals growth optimism; a falling ratio suggests weakening demand.
- **TIPS Spread (Breakeven Inflation)**: The difference between 10Y Treasury yields and 10Y TIPS yields, reflecting inflation expectations. A high spread indicates inflationary pressure.
- **Gold/Oil Ratio**: Measures market stress (Gold futures ÷ Oil futures). A rising ratio often appears in disinflationary or crisis environments.
- **Copper/Gold Ratio**: A "growth vs. safety" indicator. Rising indicates risk-on confidence; falling suggests risk aversion.

Each ratio is smoothed with a moving average to identify trends, evaluating direction and momentum. Trend strength is assessed using a short-term slope and a statistical threshold to detect persistence.

🧭 Economic Regime Classification
The script combines these metrics to identify 17 distinct economic states, such as:
- Typical Expansion: Indicates strong growth and inflation expectations with low safe-haven demand.
- Stagflation Risk: Reflects cost-push inflation with weak growth and high safe-haven demand.
- Supply Shock Conditions: Signals rising inflation and uncertainty, often due to geopolitical events.
Regime classification is based on the interaction of these metrics and their positioning relative to long-term trends. The specific weighting and logic are proprietary, ensuring a unique approach.

📊 Features
- Live macro regime status table with trend updates and economic implications.
- Visual plots of key ratios and optional moving averages.
- Customizable alerts for key regimes (e.g., stagflation onset, expansion reentry).
- Full customization for MA periods, ratio thresholds, TIPS threshold, and table update frequency.

📈 How to Use
- Apply on daily or weekly charts for stable macro signals (adjustable via "Data Timeframe" input).
- Customize thresholds and MA periods to match your market view.
- Use regime outputs to guide allocation (e.g., cyclical assets in expansion, defensive assets in stagflation).

⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before trading. The underlying calculation logic is proprietary and not disclosed in full.