STH Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio (STH-NUPL) | [DeV]

STH-NUPL

The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio (STH-NUPL) is an analytical tool designed to approximate the unrealized profit or loss of Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs)—typically those holding coins for less than 155 days—within the constraints of TradingView’s price-based environment. Drawing inspiration from the canonical STH-NUPL metric, which assesses the difference between the market value and realized value of STH-held coins, this indicator adapts the concept into a normalized ratio using Bitcoin’s price data as a proxy. It offers a window into the sentiment and behavior of short-term market participants, who are often more sensitive to price fluctuations than long-term holders.

In its raw form, STH-NUPL oscillates around a break-even threshold of 0, where positive values indicate aggregate unrealized profits for STHs (market value exceeds realized value), and negative values suggest losses. This inflection point frequently acts as a key level: in bear markets, it can signal capitulation as STHs sell at break-even or below, while in bull markets, it may reflect reluctance to realize losses, providing support. The indicator enhances this metric with smoothing, a moving average overlay, and sophisticated visualization options, delivering a statistically informed perspective on short-term holder dynamics tailored for institutional-grade analysis.

STH-NUPL Settings -

Lookback Length (Default: 150 days): Defines the SMA period for estimating realized value. This 150-day window aligns with traditional STH definitions (e.g., <155 days), capturing a broad yet relevant historical cost basis for short-term holders, ideal for assessing cyclical behavior.

Smoothing Period (Default: 5 days): Applies an EMA to the raw STH-NUPL ratio, with a short default period to maintain responsiveness to recent price shifts while filtering out daily volatility. This setting is particularly suited for tactical analysis.

Moving Average Settings -

MA Lookback Length (Default: 90 days): Sets the period for the STH-NUPL’s moving average, offering a medium-term trend signal that contrasts with the 150-day lookback, enabling detection of momentum shifts within broader market phases.

MA Type (Default: EMA): Provides six moving average types, from the straightforward SMA to the volume-sensitive VWMA. The default EMA balances smoothness and reactivity, while options like HMA or VWMA cater to specialized needs, such as emphasizing recent action or volume trends.

Display Settings -

Show Moving Average (Default: True): Toggles the visibility of the STH-NUPL MA plot, allowing users to focus solely on the smoothed ratio when desired.

Show Background Colors (Default: True): Activates dynamic background shading to visually reinforce market regimes.

Background Color Source (Default: STH-NUPL): Enables users to tie the background to either the STH-NUPL’s midline (reflecting sthNupl > 0) or the MA’s trend direction (maNupl > maNupl[2]), aligning the visual context with the chosen analytical focus.

Analytical Applications -

Bear Market Capitulation: When the smoothed STH-NUPL approaches or falls below zero, it often signals loss realization among STHs, a precursor to capitulation in downtrends. A declining MA crossing zero can confirm this selling pressure.

Bull Market Support: Positive STH-NUPL values with a rising MA indicate STHs are in profit and reluctant to sell at a loss, forming support zones in uptrends as sell pressure wanes.

Sentiment Extremes: Significant deviations above or below zero highlight over-optimism or despair among STHs, offering contrarian opportunities when paired with price action or other on-chain metrics.

**Limitations**
As a TradingView-based approximation, this indicator uses price data (close) rather than true on-chain STH supply and realized price, which are available through providers like Glassnode. The 150-day SMA for realized value simplifies the cost basis, potentially underrepresenting the diversity of STH transactions. Despite this, the smoothed ratio and moving average overlay provide a practical proxy for tracking STH sentiment within TradingView’s ecosystem.