Marcius Studio® - Trend Detector™Trend Detector™ — is an advanced trend detection indicator that combines statistical Z-Score analysis with a simplified ADF stationarity test .
It is designed to help traders identify strong directional moves while filtering out noise and false signals.
Unlike traditional moving average crossovers or momentum oscillators, this tool evaluates both trend direction and trend strength , giving you a clear visual overview of market conditions.
Important! This indicator is intended for educational and informational purposes . It does not guarantee future performance and should be used together with proper risk management.
Idea
Markets spend 70–80% of the time in consolidation and only 20–30% in trending phases . The key to profitable trading is spotting when a major trend shift begins. Trend Detector™ was built exactly for this purpose — to filter noise and highlight true trend reversals.
How It Works
Calculates the Z-Score of price to detect extreme deviations from the mean.
Applies a simplified ADF t-Statistic test to confirm trend validity.
Uses an ATR-based ribbon for clean visualization of bullish/bearish phases.
Generates Buy/Sell signals when trend switches are confirmed.
Displays an Info Panel with real-time metrics: Z-Score, ADF t-Stat, Trend Strength (0–100), ATR % of price.
Features
Trend Ribbon : visually highlights bullish, bearish, or neutral phases.
Confirmation Filter : avoids false flips by requiring multiple bars of validation.
Strength Score : quantifies how powerful the current trend is.
Signal Markers : “BUY” and “SELL” alerts appear directly on the chart.
Customizable Alerts : get notified when new uptrends or downtrends are detected.
Recommendations
Works well on swing trading timeframes (1H, 4H, Daily).
Use in combination with support/resistance zones or volume profile tools for higher accuracy.
The higher the Trend Strength Score , the more reliable the trend continuation.
Indicator Settings
Analysis Period : number of bars for Z-Score & ADF test.
ATR Length : used for ribbon visualization.
Min Bars to Confirm Trend : filters false trend flips.
Show/Hide options for Ribbon, Signals, and Info Panel.
Example Settings
Timeframe : 1H or 4H
Analysis Period : 20
ATR Length : 14
Min Confirmation Bars : 2–3
Disclaimer
Trading and investing involve risk — always do your own research (DYOR) and seek professional advice. We are not responsible for any financial losses.
ADF-TEST
Cointegration Matrix (Indices)This indicator plots a cointegration matrix for pairings of most major stock indices. The matrix is populated with ADF t-stats (from an ADF-test with 1 lag). An ADF-test (Augmented Dickey-Fuller test) tests the null hypothesis that an AR process has a unit root. If rejected, the alternative hypothesis is usually that the AR process is either stationary or trend-stationary.
Technically what we're doing is running an ADF-test on the residuals (spread) of each pairing (i.e. a cointegration test). So we're testing if there is a unit root in the spread between the two assets of a pairing. A unit root being present in the spread essentially means the spread varies randomly over time, and any mean reversion in the spread is very hard to predict, or may never happen. If there is no evidence of a unit root, the spread (distance between the assets) should remain more or less constant over time, or rise/fall in close to the same rate over time (if it can be modelled as an AR process). The more negative the number, the stronger the rejection of the idea that the spread has a unit root. So in statistics we choose a critical value that corresponds to a confidence level of the test. In this case, -3.238 equals a confidence level of 90%, -3.589 equals a confidence level of 95% and -4.375 equals a confidence level of 99%. So the colors are based on the confidence level of the test statistic (the t-stat, i.e. the number of the pairing in the matrix). So if the number is greater than -3.238 it is green, if it's between -3.238 and -3.589 it's yellow, if it's between -3.589 and -4.375 it's orange, and if its lower than -4.375 it's red.
There are multiple ways to interpret the results. A strong rejection of the presence of a unit root (i.e. a value of -4.375 or below) is not a guarantee that there is no unit root, or that any of the two alternative hypotheses (that the spread is stationary or trend-stationary) are correct. It only means that in 99% of the cases, if the spread is an AR process, the test is right, and there is no unit root in the spread. Therefore, the results of this test is no guarantee that the result proves one of the alternative solutions. Green therefore means that a unit root cannot be ruled out (which can be interpreted as "the two indices probably don't move together over time"), and red means that a unit root is likely not present (which can be interpreted as "the two indices may move together over time").
NOTE: The indicator can take a while to load since it is loading data from 20 stock indices and calculating the ADF t-stat for 380 pairings.
Cointegration Matrix (FX)This indicator plots a cointegration matrix for pairings of all 28 major forex pairs. The matrix is populated with ADF t-stats (from an ADF-test with 1 lag). An ADF-test (Augmented Dickey-Fuller test) tests the null hypothesis that an AR process has a unit root. If rejected, the alternative hypothesis is usually that the AR process is either stationary or trend-stationary.
Technically what we're doing is running an ADF-test on the residuals (spread) of each pairing (i.e. a cointegration test). So we're testing if there is a unit root in the spread between the two assets of a pairing. A unit root being present in the spread essentially means the spread varies randomly over time, and any mean reversion in the spread is very hard to predict, or may never happen. If there is no evidence of a unit root, the spread (distance between the assets) should remain more or less constant over time, or rise/fall in close to the same rate over time (if it can be modelled as an AR process). The more negative the number, the stronger the rejection of the idea that the spread has a unit root. So in statistics we choose a critical value that corresponds to a confidence level of the test. In this case, -3.238 equals a confidence level of 90%, -3.589 equals a confidence level of 95% and -4.375 equals a confidence level of 99%. So the colors are based on the confidence level of the test statistic (the t-stat, i.e. the number of the pairing in the matrix). So if the number is greater than -3.238 it is green, if it's between -3.238 and -3.589 it's yellow, if it's between -3.589 and -4.375 it's orange, and if its lower than -4.375 it's red.
There are multiple ways to interpret the results. A strong rejection of the presence of a unit root (i.e. a value of -4.375 or below) is not a guarantee that there is no unit root, or that any of the two alternative hypotheses (that the spread is stationary or trend-stationary) are correct. It only means that in 99% of the cases, if the spread is an AR process, the test is right, and there is no unit root in the spread. Therefore, the results of this test is no guarantee that the result proves one of the alternative solutions. Green therefore means that a unit root cannot be ruled out (which can be interpreted as "the two forex pairs probably don't move together over time"), and red means that a unit root is likely not present (which can be interpreted as "the two forex pairs may move together over time").
One possible way to use this indicator is to make sure you don't trade two pairs that move together at the same time. So basically the idea is that if you already have a trade open in one of the currency pairs of the pairing, only enter a trade in the other currency pair of that pairing if the color is green, or you may be doubling your risk.
NOTE: The indicator can take a while to load since it is loading data from 28 pairs and calculating the ADF t-stat for 756 pairings.
