Bitcoin Dynamic RibbonThe BTC1D Ribbon Corridor is a multi‑layered, Fibonacci‑based dynamic support/resistance strategy built for the BTC/USD daily chart. This strategy combines custom time‐decay logarithmic bands, polynomial trend forecasts, cycle detection, momentum cross-filters, and Monte Carlo–style projections into a cohesive framework designed to help traders visualize and backtest both mean‐reversion and breakout opportunities.
Key Components:
1. Time‑Weighted Logarithmic Fibonacci Corridor
Computes a dynamic ribbon of eight Fibonacci levels by fitting a log‐decay model to elapsed
time since July 19, 2010.
Intercepts and slopes for support/resistance lines are calibrated via cumulative functions, producing bands that adapt to BTC’s long‑term growth cycle.
2. Polynomial Regression Price Law
Applies a log‑law regression to model BTC’s macro‑trend “price law,” generating center lines and shaded corridors.
Overlays future projections, giving traders visual insight into expected growth paths under historical volatility.
3. Cycle Peak & Bear/Bull Filters
Detects cycle peaks and bottoms using SMA and EMA filters, marking these events with vertical lines and backgrounds.
Applies a color‑gradient background to price bars, dynamically mapping Risk as a 10‑band spectrum—highlighting low (deep blue) through high (bright red) zones.
4. Momentum & Trend‑Filter Strategy Logic
Long Entry when the Risk oscillator dips below 1 (deep blue) and price is below the polynomial support line, signaling oversold mean‑reversion.
Close Long when Risk oscillator exceeds 9 (bright red), or when MA cross signals trend exhaustion.
Bear Market Long entries trigger on aligned short‑term SMA/VWMA and price/VWMA crossovers, offering tactical bull‑market hedges during corrective phases.
Integrated ADX and MA‑spread filters prevent entries during low‑volatility or sideways regimes.
5. Monte Carlo–Style Forecasting
Offers two forecasting modes:
Normal: simulates price paths via Gaussian log‑returns over a user‑set “reference size” (bars) and “forecast length,” plotting best‑/worst‑case envelopes.
Bootstrap: resamples historical log‑returns for faster, lighter projections.
6. Table of live strategy performance
(Realized %, Open %, Total %) embedded top‑right for deeper testing and clarity.
How to Use
Apply to BTCUSD, 1D timeframe.
Configure Date Filters: Default start is Jan 1, 2010; you may adjust “Start Date” and “End Date” under Fib Corridor inputs to focus on specific market cycles.
Forecast Settings: Under the Forecast group, select “Normal” or “Bootstrap,” simulation count, back‑reference size, and forecast length. Toggle “Show Best Case/Worst Case Only” for clarity.
Interpret Bands & Colors:
Thick red/green outer lines mark long‑term log‑law support/resistance.
Inner black lines reflect Fibonacci splits of the log‑decay corridor.
Price bars colored blue→red indicate normalized Risk state.
No existing public script (as far as I am aware) unifies time‑decay Fibonacci corridors, polynomial trend laws, clear cycle labeling, volumetric VWMA filters, oscillator‑based mean reversion, and Monte Carlo projections into one strategy. Every component is crafted to interoperate: the dynamic bands define structural bias; the oscillator times entries; and the simulation engine visualizes potential outcomes. This depth of integration and forward‑projected logic was carefully put together to embody a principled approach to BTC’s unique market dynamics.
I hope you enjoy the insights this strategy offers, I had a lot of fun making it. Feel free to leave any recommendations or criticisms in the comments :)
Happy Trading!
Bitcoinmarkets
BTC Arcturus IndicatorBTC Arcturus Indicator: This indicator is designed to create buy and sell signals based on the market value of Bitcoin. It also predicts potential market tops with the Pi Cycle Top indicator.
How Does It Work?
1. MVRVZ (Market Value to Realized Value-Z Score) Calculation:
MC: Bitcoin's market cap (Market Cap) is pulled daily from Glassnode data.
MCR: Realized Market Cap of Bitcoin is taken daily from Coinmetrics data.
MVRVZ: It is calculated by dividing the difference between Bitcoin's market value and realized market value by one standard deviation. This value indicates whether the market is overvalued or undervalued.
2. Reception and Warning Signals:
Buy Signal: When MVRVZ falls below the -0.255 threshold value, the indicator gives a "Buy" signal. This indicates that Bitcoin is undervalued and may be a buying opportunity.
Warning Signal: A warning signal turns on when MVRVZ exceeds the threshold value of 2.765. This indicates that the market is approaching saturation and caution is warranted.
3. Tracking the Highest MVRVZ Value:
The indicator records the highest MVRVZ value in the last 10 candlesticks. This value is used to determine whether the market has reached its highest risk levels.
4. Warning Display:
If the MVRVZ value matches the highest value in the last 10 bars and this warning has not been displayed before, a "Warning" signal is displayed.
Once the warning signal is shown, no further warnings are shown for 10 candles.
5. Pi Cycle Top Indicator:
Pi Cycle Top: This indicator predicts Bitcoin tops by comparing two moving averages (350-day and 111-day). If the short-term moving average falls below the long-term moving average, this is considered a sell signal.
The indicator displays this signal with the label "Sell", indicating a potential market top.
User Guide:
Green Buy Signal: It means Bitcoin is cheap and offers a buying opportunity.
Yellow Warning Signal: Indicates that Bitcoin has reached possible profit taking points and caution should be exercised.
Red Sell Signal: Indicates that Bitcoin has reached market saturation and it may be appropriate to sell.
Atlantean Bitcoin Weekly Market Condition - Top/Bottom BTC Overview:
The "Atlantean Bitcoin Weekly Market Condition Detector - Top/Bottom BTC" is a specialized TradingView indicator designed to identify significant turning points in the Bitcoin market on a weekly basis. By analyzing long-term and short-term moving averages across two distinct resolutions, this indicator provides traders with valuable insights into potential market bottoms and tops, as well as the initiation of bull markets.
Key Features:
Market Bottom Detection: The script uses a combination of a simple moving average (SMA) and an exponential moving average (EMA) calculated over long and short periods to identify potential market bottoms. When these conditions are met, the script signals a "Market Bottom" label on the chart, indicating a possible buying opportunity.
Bull Market Start Indicator: When the short-term EMA crosses above the long-term SMA, it signals the beginning of a bull market. This is marked by a "Bull Market Start" label on the chart, helping traders to prepare for potential market upswings.
Market Top Detection: The script identifies potential market tops by analyzing the crossunder of long and short-term moving averages. A "Market Top" label is plotted, suggesting a potential selling point.
Customizable Moving Averages Display: Users can choose to display the moving averages used for detecting market tops and bottoms, providing additional insights into market conditions.
How It Works: The indicator operates by monitoring the interactions between the specified moving averages:
Market Bottom: Detected when the long-term SMA (adjusted by a factor of 0.745) crosses over the short-term EMA.
Bull Market Start: Detected when the short-term EMA crosses above the long-term SMA.
Market Top: Detected when the long-term SMA (adjusted by a factor of 2) crosses under the short-term SMA.
These conditions are highlighted on the chart, allowing traders to visualize significant market events and make informed decisions.
Intended Use: This indicator is best used on weekly Bitcoin charts. It’s designed to provide long-term market insights rather than short-term trading signals. Traders can use this tool to identify strategic entry and exit points during major market cycles. The optional display of moving averages can further enhance understanding of market dynamics.
Originality and Utility: Unlike many other indicators, this script not only highlights traditional market tops and bottoms but also identifies the aggressive start of bull markets, offering a comprehensive view of market conditions. The unique combination of adjusted moving averages makes this script a valuable tool for long-term Bitcoin traders.
Disclaimer: The signals provided by this indicator are based on historical data and mathematical calculations. They do not guarantee future market performance. Traders should use this tool as part of a broader trading strategy and consider other factors before making trading decisions. Not financial advice.
Happy Trading!
By Atlantean
MVRV Z-Score [AlgoAlpha]Introducing the ∑ MVRV Z-Score by AlgoAlpha, a dynamic and sophisticated tool designed for traders seeking to gain an edge in INDEX:BTCUSD analysis. This script employs advanced statistical techniques on Bitcoin On-Chain data to offer a deeper understanding of market conditions, focusing on valuation extremes and momentum trends. Let's explore the features and functionalities that make this tool a valuable addition to your trading arsenal.
Key Features:
🔶 Adjustable Parameters: Customize the Z score lookback length, moving average lookback length, and choose from six moving average types, tailoring the analysis to your trading style.
🔶 Heiken Ashi Compatibility: Incorporate Heiken Ashi plots to visualize market trends, adding a layer of clarity to your technical analysis.
🔶 Divergence Alerts: Detect significant bullish and bearish divergences, allowing for timely identification of potential market reversals.
🔶 Configurable Alerts: Set alerts for overbought, oversold, and divergence conditions, ensuring you never miss an opportunity.
How to Use:
1. ➡️ Parameter Selection: Start by configuring the Z-Score and moving average settings according to your analysis needs. This includes selecting the lookback period and the type of moving average.
2. ➡️ Visualization Options: Choose to enable Heiken Ashi plots for an alternative view of the Z-Score, which can help in identifying trend directions more clearly.
3. ➡️ Monitor for Signals: Keep an eye out for divergence signals and overbought/oversold conditions as potential indicators for entering or exiting trades.
4. ➡️ Alert Setup: Configure alerts based on your selected parameters to receive notifications for important market movements and conditions.
How It Works:
The core of this tool is the Z-Score calculation, which assesses the standard deviation of the current market value from its mean, highlighting overvalued or undervalued market conditions. Here's a brief overview of the script's operational mechanics:
1. 📊 Calculating the Z-Score: The script first calculates the mean over a user-defined lookback period of the MVRV ratio, then it computes the Z-Score to identify deviations from the average.
meanValue = ta.sma(marketValue, zScoreLookback)
zScoreValue = (marketValue - meanValue) / ta.stdev(marketValue, zScoreLookback)
2. 📈 Applying a Moving Average: To smooth the Z-Score data and make trends more discernible, a moving average is applied. Users can choose from several types, such as SMA, EMA, or HMA, based on their preference.
3. 🔄 Heiken Ashi Visualization: For those opting for a more intuitive trend analysis, Heiken Ashi plots can be enabled, transforming the Z-Score data into candlestick charts that simplify trend identification.
4. 🔍 Identifying Divergences: The script is equipped to spot divergences between the market price action and the Z-Score, signaling potential bullish or bearish market reversals.
oscHigherLow = haClose > ta.valuewhen(findPivotLow, haClose , 1) and isInRange(findPivotLow )
priceLowerLow = low < ta.valuewhen(findPivotLow, low , 1)
bullishCondition = enablePlotBullish and priceLowerLow and oscHigherLow and findPivotLow
5. 🚨 Configurable Alerts: Lastly, the script allows for the setting of customizable alerts based on the Z-Score, moving averages, and identified divergences, enabling traders to react promptly to market changes.
The ∑ MVRV Z-Score by AlgoAlpha is an essential tool for traders looking to analyze and interpret market dynamics through a quantitatively rigorous lens. Whether you're focused on identifying market extremes or tracking trend momentum, this script offers the insights needed to support informed trading decisions. 🌟📊💡
twisted SMA strategy [4h] Hello
I would like to introduce a very simple strategy that uses a combination of 3 simple moving averages ( SMA 4 , SMA 9 , SMA 18 )
this is a classic combination showing the most probable trend directions
Crosses were marked on the basis of the color of the candles (bulish cross - blue / bearish cross - maroon)
ma 100 was used to determine the main trend, which is one of the most popular 4-hour candles
We define main trend while price crosses SMA100 ( for bullish trend I use green candle color )
The long position strategy was created in combination of 3 moving averages with Kaufman's adaptive moving average by alexgrover
The strategy is very accurate and is easy to use indicators
the strategy uses only Buy (Long) signals in a combination of crossovers of the SMA 4, SMA 9, SMA 18 and the Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average.
As a signal to close a long position, only the opposite signal of the intersection of 3 different moving averages is used
the current strategy is recommended for higher time zones (4h +) due to the strength of the closing candles, which translates into signal strength
works fascinatingly well for long-term bullish market assets (for example 4h Apple, Tesla charts)
Enjoy and trade safe ;)
BTC Mass profit alarmThis is a modified version of my "BTC Mass profit" strategy so that you can add alerts when a signal is produced
BTC Massive ProfitThis script is meant to be used on BTC while viewing the 30m chart. This script has generated MASSIVE profits. Greatest BTC script on the market
Trend LengthScript tries to capture the length of trends. It calculates an SMA and then determines the slope of the SMA using a simple momentum function. From there it counts bars from when the slope changed directions last. The lime green line is the count from when the slope changed. The yellow line is the average time of a trend. The white line is "trying" to capture the length of a full healthy pip running trend. Pick and SMA you like and then run through many currencies. I find that trends tend to be the same length. Not surprising as the markets are extremely correlated to each other. The trick is to find the most active pair for action. To do that look up my Pairs Range script.
Comments are welcome.
