Cointegration Buy and Sell Signals [EdgeTerminal]The Cointegration Buy And Sell Signals is a sophisticated technical analysis tool to spot high-probability market turning points — before they fully develop on price charts.
Most reversal indicators rely on raw price action, visual patterns, or basic and common indicator logic — which often suffer in noisy or trending markets. In most cases, they lag behind the actual change in trend and provide useless and late signals.
This indicator is rooted in advanced concepts from statistical arbitrage, mean reversion theory, and quantitative finance, and it packages these ideas in a user-friendly visual format that works on any timeframe and asset class.
It does this by analyzing how the short-term and long-term EMAs behave relative to each other — and uses statistical filters like Z-score, correlation, volatility normalization, and stationarity tests to issue highly selective Buy and Sell signals.
This tool provides statistical confirmation of trend exhaustion, allowing you to trade mean-reverting setups. It fades overextended moves and uses signal stacking to reduce false entries. The entire indicator is based on a very interesting mathematically grounded model which I will get into down below.
Here’s how the indicator works at a high level:
EMAs as Anchors: It starts with two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) — one short-term and one long-term — to track market direction.
Statistical Spread (Regression Residuals): It performs a rolling linear regression between the short and long EMA. Instead of using the raw difference (short - long), it calculates the regression residual, which better models their natural relationship.
Normalize the Spread: The spread is divided by historical price volatility (ATR) to make it scale-invariant. This ensures the indicator works on low-priced stocks, high-priced indices, and crypto alike.
Z-Score: It computes a Z-score of the normalized spread to measure how “extreme” the current deviation is from its historical average.
Dynamic Thresholds: Unlike most tools that use fixed thresholds (like Z = ±2), this one calculates dynamic thresholds using historical percentiles (e.g., top 10% and bottom 10%) so that it adapts to the asset's current behavior to reduce false signals based on market’s extreme volatility at a certain time.
Z-Score Momentum: It tracks the direction of the Z-score — if Z is extreme but still moving away from zero, it's too early. It waits for reversion to start (Z momentum flips).
Correlation Check: Uses a rolling Pearson correlation to confirm the two EMAs are still statistically related. If they diverge (low correlation), no signal is shown.
Stationarity Filter (ADF-like): Uses the volatility of the regression residual to determine if the spread is stationary (mean-reverting) — a key concept in cointegration and statistical arbitrage. It’s not possible to build an exact ADF filter in Pine Script so we used the next best thing.
Signal Control: Prevents noisy charts and overtrading by ensuring no back-to-back buy or sell signals. Each signal must alternate and respect a cooldown period so you won’t be overwhelmed and won’t get a messy chart.
Important Notes to Remember:
The whole idea behind this indicator is to try to use some stat arb models to detect shifting patterns faster than they appear on common indicators, so in some cases, some assumptions are made based on historic values.
This means that in some cases, the indicator can “jump” into the conclusion too quickly. Although we try to eliminate this by using stationary filters, correlation checks, and Z-score momentum detection, there is still a chance some signals that are generated can be too early, in the stock market, that's the same as being incorrect. So make sure to use this with other indicators to confirm the movement.
How To Use The Indicator:
You can use the indicator as a standalone reversal system, as a filter for overbought and oversold setups, in combination with other trend indicators and as a part of a signal stack with other common indicators for divergence spotting and fade trades.
The indicator produces simple buy and sell signals when all criteria is met. Based on our own testing, we recommend treating these signals as standalone and independent from each other . Meaning that if you take position after a buy signal, don’t wait for a sell signal to appear to exit the trade and vice versa.
This is why we recommend using this indicator with other advanced or even simple indicators as an early confirmation tool.
The Display Table:
The floating diagnostic table in the top-right corner of the chart is a key part of this indicator. It's a live statistical dashboard that helps you understand why a signal is (or isn’t) being triggered, and whether the market conditions are lining up for a potential reversal.
1. Z-Score
What it shows: The current Z-score value of the volatility-normalized spread between the short EMA and the regression line of the long EMA.
Why it matters: Z-score tells you how statistically extreme the current relationship is. A Z-score of:
0 = perfectly average
> +2 = very overbought
< -2 = very oversold
How to use it: Look for Z-score reaching extreme highs or lows (beyond dynamic thresholds). Watch for it to start reversing direction, especially when paired with green table rows (see below)
2. Z-Score Momentum
What it shows: The rate of change (ROC) of the Z-score:
Zmomentum=Zt − Zt − 1
Why it matters: This tells you if the Z-score is still stretching out (e.g., getting more overbought/oversold), or reverting back toward the mean.
How to use it: A positive Z-momentum after a very low Z-score = potential bullish reversal A negative Z-momentum after a very high Z-score = potential bearish reversal. Avoid signals when momentum is still pushing deeper into extremes
3. Correlation
What it shows: The rolling Pearson correlation coefficient between the short EMA and long EMA.
Why it matters: High correlation (closer to +1) means the EMAs are still statistically connected — a key requirement for cointegration or mean reversion to be valid.
How to use it: Look for correlation > 0.7 for reliable signals. If correlation drops below 0.5, ignore the Z-score — the EMAs aren’t moving together anymore
4. Stationary
What it shows: A simplified "Yes" or "No" answer to the question:
“Is the spread statistically stable (stationary) and mean-reverting right now?”
Why it matters: Mean reversion strategies only work when the spread is stationary — that is, when the distance between EMAs behaves like a rubber band, not a drifting cloud.
How to use it: A "Yes" means the indicator sees a consistent, stable spread — good for trading. "No" means the market is too volatile, disjointed, or chaotic for reliable mean reversion. Wait for this to flip to "Yes" before trusting signals
5. Last Signal
What it shows: The last signal issued by the system — either "Buy", "Sell", or "None"
Why it matters: Helps avoid confusion and repeated entries. Signals only alternate — you won’t get another Buy until a Sell happens, and vice versa.
How to use it: If the last signal was a "Buy", and you’re watching for a Sell, don’t act on more bullish signals. Great for systems where you only want one position open at a time
6. Bars Since Signal
What it shows: How many bars (candles) have passed since the last Buy or Sell signal.
Why it matters: Gives you context for how long the current condition has persisted
How to use it: If it says 1 or 2, a signal just happened — avoid jumping in late. If it’s been 10+ bars, a new opportunity might be brewing soon. You can use this to time exits if you want to fade a recent signal manually
Indicator Settings:
Short EMA: Sets the short-term EMA period. The smaller the number, the more reactive and more signals you get.
Long EMA: Sets the slow EMA period. The larger this number is, the smoother baseline, and more reliable trend bases are generated.
Z-Score Lookback: The period or bars used for mean & std deviation of spread between short and long EMAs. Larger values result in smoother signals with fewer false positives.
Volatility Window: This value normalizes the spread by historical volatility. This allows you to prevent scale distortion, showing you a cleaner and better chart.
Correlation Lookback: How many periods or how far back to test correlation between slow and long EMAs. This filters out false positives when EMAs lose alignment.
Hurst Lookback: The multiplier to approximate stationarity. Lower leads to more sensitivity to regime change, higher produces a more stricter filtering.
Z Threshold Percentile: This value sets how extreme Z-score must be to trigger a signal. For example, 90 equals only top/bottom 10% of extremes, 80 = more frequent.
Min Bars Between Signals: This hard stop prevents back-to-back signals. The idea is to avoid over-trading or whipsaws in volatile markets even when Hurst lookback and volatility window values are not enough to filter signals.
Some More Recommendations:
We recommend trying different EMA pairs (10/50, 21/100, 5/20) for different asset behaviors. You can set percentile to 85 or 80 if you want more frequent but looser signals. You can also use the Z-score reversion monitor for powerful confirmation.
