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Sultan Gold Levels (SMC, Sessions & Structure)This indicator is a comprehensive "Smart Money Concepts" (SMC) and Market Structure suite designed to declutter charts by combining multiple technical analysis tools into a single, cohesive overlay. Instead of using separate indicators for Sessions, Market Structure, and Fibonacci levels, this script integrates them to help traders identify "Confluence" areas—specifically where structural levels align with session opens or psychological price points. █ HOW IT WORKS & CALCULATIONS 1. Market Structure (BOS / CHoCH): The script utilizes a Pivot High/Low algorithm (user-defined length, default 5) to identify structural points (HH, LL, LH, HL). - Break of Structure (BOS): Triggered when price closes beyond a previous pivot. The script includes a "Real vs. Fake" validation filter. - Validation Logic: A "Real" BOS requires the candle body to close past the level with specific volume and displacement thresholds (ATR based). Wicks piercing a level are marked as "Fake" or weak breaks. 2. Order Blocks (OB) & FVG: - Order Blocks are identified by analyzing the last opposing candle before a significant move that breaks structure. The script filters these based on a volume/ATR strength multiplier to ensure only significant institutional candles are highlighted. - Mitigation: The script automatically removes Order Blocks once price has revisited (mitigated) them, keeping the chart clean. 3. Session Ranges: The script tracks and plots the Highs and Lows of major trading sessions (Asian, London, New York). - Logic: It uses `time()` functions to capture the highest and lowest points during specific UTC hours. These levels often act as liquidity pools for the subsequent session. 4. Fibonacci & Liquidity: - Auto-Fibonacci: Automatically anchors to the most recent significant swing high/low sequence to project retracement levels (specifically the 50% and 61.8% "Golden Pocket"). - Liquidity: Detects "Equal Highs" (EQH) and "Equal Lows" (EQL) by comparing adjacent pivot points within a percentage threshold (0.15% default), highlighting areas where stop-losses may reside. █ FEATURES - Multi-Timeframe Dashboard: Displays trend bias (D1, H4, H1) and current session status. - Previous Day/Week/Month Levels: Auto-plots PDH/PDL, PWH/PWL as static support/resistance lines. - Psychological Levels: Auto-plots round numbers (e.g., xx00, xx50). - Customizable Alerts: Alerts for BOS, OB formation, and level touches. █ SETTINGS - Structure Length: Adjusts the sensitivity of the pivot detection. - Session Times: Fully customizable time inputs for Asia/London/NY. - Styling: Toggle specific elements (like Sessions or FVGs) on/off to suit your trading style. █ CREDITS This script utilizes standard Smart Money Concept theories widely discussed in the technical analysis community. The pivot detection logic is based on standard high/low comparisons common in Pine Script open-source libraries.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh Sultan-of-Multan
[MetaMasters] COT INDEXThe COT Index converts the weekly net positions of Commercial traders into a normalized, cycle-based mathematical model. Rather than showing raw net positioning, the COT Index applies a cyclical normalization algorithm—most commonly over 26 weeks, with 52 weeks as an alternative. This process highlights bullish and bearish extremes in Commercial behavior more clearly. The resulting index is displayed as a color-coded line: • Green Zone – Commercials classified as bullish. Historically, strong Commercial buying activity often coincides with upward market pressure. • Red Zone – Commercials classified as bearish. This typically reflects increased downside pressure in the underlying market. • Neutral Zone – No clear directional bias; positioning sits in the mid-range. Because COT data is updated only once per week and the index is derived from multi-week cyclical analysis, the indicator is designed strictly for the weekly timeframe. Lower timeframes do not align with the structure or cadence of the underlying data. The chosen cycle length (commonly 26 or 52 weeks) determines how net positions are compared and normalized, influencing how quickly the index reaches its extreme zones. Overall, the COT Index offers an objective, systematic way to interpret Commercial trader sentiment and identify potential directional bias in the market.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh vxqpe
[MetaMasters] Asset Value Comparisson OscillatorThe Asset Value Comparison Oscillator evaluates the currently opened asset against a user-selected reference symbol to highlight periods of relative overvaluation or undervaluation. Its logic follows the principle that markets continually gravitate toward fair value. When an asset strays too far from a meaningful benchmark, it typically reverts toward equilibrium. This indicator captures that relationship and converts it into a clear, visual oscillator: • Green Zone (Undervalued) – Indicates the asset is priced lower than the reference symbol. This suggests potential upward pressure as markets often correct undervalued conditions. • Red Zone (Overvalued) – Indicates the asset is priced higher than the reference symbol. This may signal increased chances of a downward move as the asset seeks balance. Users can assign any reference instrument—commodities, indices, currency pairs, or other assets. The oscillator measures valuation gaps using a configurable cycle length; a Cycle setting of 10 is recommended for balanced and responsive signals. Because the indicator reflects broader valuation behavior, it is intended exclusively for the daily timeframe, as lower intervals may fail to capture meaningful fundamental relationships. Overall, the Asset Value Comparison Oscillator helps traders spot when an asset appears cheap or expensive relative to another, adding a layer of fundamental insight to strengthen directional trading decisions.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh vxqpe
[MetaMasters] SeasonalityThe Seasonality Indicator evaluates the average historical performance of the selected asset by analyzing a user-defined number of past years (for example, the last 10). You can adjust the number of years included in the calculation directly from the settings panel. Using this historical window, the indicator generates an average seasonal curve that reflects how the market has typically behaved throughout each part of the year. This curve serves as a forward-looking guide, highlighting periods in which the market has historically shown consistent tendencies. Traders can use this seasonal projection to pinpoint time periods with a higher statistical likelihood of upward or downward movement. The indicator is especially effective when paired with the Seasonality Analysis Tool, which helps identify specific historical windows and further strengthens seasonal decision-making. This indicator is designed exclusively for the daily timeframe, as all calculations rely on daily candle data. Other timeframes will not produce accurate seasonal structures. Overall, the Seasonality Indicator offers a clear, data-driven view of recurring annual patterns, helping traders understand when historical tendencies may influence future price action.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh vxqpe
***CILGIN INDIKATOR***ÇILGIN INDICATOR – User Guide OVERVIEW ÇILGIN INDICATOR is a multi-layer trend and momentum confirmation tool designed for discretionary traders. It combines Relative RSI, EMA structure, SuperTrend logic, Momentum, and optional CCI & ADX filters into a single visual system. Purpose: Filter market noise, confirm trend strength, and highlight high-probability Buy / Sell zones. The indicator works on all symbols and all timeframes. RELATIVE RSI & MOMENTUM The indicator can work in two modes: NORMAL MODE (Formula OFF) RSI is calculated directly from the chart symbol. FORMULA MODE (Formula ON) RSI is calculated from a relative price formula: Base Symbol / Denominator 1 / Denominator 2 This allows relative strength analysis against indices, sectors, or benchmarks. RSI SIGNAL LOGIC RSI Signal Line = SMA of RSI RSI 50 Level = Trend bias reference BUY SIGNAL RSI crosses above the signal line Optional: RSI must also cross above 50 (Double Confirmation) SELL SIGNAL RSI crosses below the signal line Optional: RSI must also cross below 50 Small arrows on the chart represent RSI-based Buy and Sell signals. EMA STRUCTURE Five adaptive EMAs are plotted: EMA 1 EMA 5 EMA 21 EMA 50 EMA 100 EMA lengths automatically adapt to timeframe speed. EMA BUY LOGIC Fast EMA crosses above any slower EMA. EMA SELL LOGIC Fast EMA crosses below any slower EMA. EMAs define: Trend direction Dynamic support and resistance Momentum shifts SUPERTREND SYSTEM A custom ATR-based SuperTrend is used. Features: Optional candle wick usage Dynamic trailing stop Visual Buy / Sell labels SUPERTREND BUY Trend flips from bearish to bullish. SUPERTREND SELL Trend flips from bullish to bearish. Colored zones visualize the active trend direction. STRONG BUY & STRONG SELL SIGNALS A Strong Signal is generated only when multiple conditions agree. STRONG BUY RSI Buy Signal SuperTrend Buy Signal Optional CCI Filter confirmation Optional ADX Filter confirmation STRONG SELL RSI Sell Signal SuperTrend Sell Signal Optional CCI Filter confirmation Optional ADX Filter confirmation Strong signals are displayed as large labeled markers: “STRONG BUY” “STRONG SELL” Designed for trend-following entries, not market noise. CCI & ADX FILTERS (OPTIONAL) CCI FILTER Buy allowed only if CCI > 0 Sell allowed only if CCI < 0 ADX FILTER ADX must be above minimum level Direction confirmed using +DI and -DI These filters help avoid sideways markets and weak trends. INFORMATION PANELS PANEL A (Top Right) Daily percentage change Weekly percentage change Monthly percentage change Daily volume (millions) PANEL B (Bottom Right) Relative RSI value RSI signal value Relative momentum Market status (Bull / Bear) Provides instant market context without extra indicators. ALERTS Built-in alerts are available for: STRONG BUY STRONG SELL Suitable for automation and watchlist monitoring. BEST PRACTICES Use Formula Mode for relative strength analysis Enable CCI & ADX filters on higher timeframes Combine signals with price action and key levels Do not use as a standalone trading system DISCLAIMER This indicator is a decision-support tool and does not provide financial advice. Always manage risk and confirm signals with your own analysis.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh metinnitem
LQC UNFILLED ORDERS + FVGLQC UNFILLED ORDERS + FVG (LQC UIO) The Legendary Quantum Complete Standard for Institutional Order Flow LQC UIO is a professional-grade overlay indicator that combines two of the most powerful concepts in modern price action trading: Unfilled Institutional Orders and Fair Value Gaps (FVG). Built on the LQC Standard (Confirmation, Clean, Customizable), this tool provides a crystal-clear view of where institutional interest lies. KEY FEATURES: ✅ Institutional Order Zones - Automatically detects high-probability BUY and SELL zones based on small-candle-to-impulse-move patterns ✅ Fair Value Gap Detection - Identifies both Bullish (green) and Bearish (red) FVGs with clean boxes (NO LINES) ✅ FVG Mitigation Tracking - Labels change from "FVG" to "MITIGATED" when filled, with color-coded checkmarks ✅ Volume Confirmation - Validates zone reactions with volume surge ✅ Heiken Ashi Mode - Toggle for cleaner trend detection ✅ Professional Dashboard - Shows all statistics: zones, reactions, FVGs, mitigations ✅ Clean & Customizable - Fully customizable colors, extensions, and settings ✅ Intelligent Alerts - Comprehensive alert system for zones, FVGs, and mitigations HOW IT WORKS: 1. Unfilled Orders: Detects small indecisive candle + large impulse candle pattern (institutional footprint) 2. Fair Value Gaps: Identifies market inefficiencies that act as price magnets 3. Confirmation: Volume-confirmed reactions ensure institutional participation HOW TO USE: - Look for confluence when Order Zones align with FVGs (highest probability setups) - Use zone touches or FVG mitigations as entry triggers - Wait for volume confirmation before entering trades - Zones auto-delete when broken (optional setting) Built for traders who want to move beyond basic support/resistance and trade with institutional order flow.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh LegendaryQuantum
Daily/Weekly FVG by KrisThis indicator is a Multi-Timeframe (MTF) tool designed to automatically identify and project Fair Value Gaps (Imbalances) from Daily and Weekly timeframes onto your current chart. It helps traders locate higher-timeframe Areas of Interest (POI) and liquidity voids without manually switching charts. How it works: The script utilizes `request.security` to fetch High and Low data from Daily and Weekly timeframes. It identifies a Fair Value Gap (FVG) based on the 3-candle formation logic where price moves inefficiently, leaving a gap between the wicks. - Bullish FVG: Identified when the current Daily/Weekly Low is greater than the High of the candle from 2 periods ago. - Bearish FVG: Identified when the current Daily/Weekly High is lower than the Low of the candle from 2 periods ago. The indicator draws a box extending to the right to visualize the zone, along with a dotted midline which often acts as a sensitive support/resistance level. Unique Feature: Smart Mitigation (Auto-Hide) To keep your chart clean and focused on relevant data, the script includes a "Full Fill" logic. It continuously monitors price action relative to existing FVG boxes. - If price completely crosses through a box (fully fills the gap), the indicator considers it "mitigated" and automatically hides the box and its midline (sets transparency to 100%). - This ensures you only see "fresh" or unfilled gaps that are still relevant for trading. Settings: - TF Checkboxes (Daily/Weekly FVG): Toggle the visibility of Daily or Weekly gaps independently based on your analysis needs. - Design Mode: Colored: Uses classic Green (Bullish) and Red (Bearish) colors for easy trend identification. Monochrome: Uses Gray tones for a minimalist look that reduces visual noise on the chart. Usage: Use these zones to identify potential reversal points or liquidity targets. Since these are higher-timeframe levels, they often carry more weight than intraday imbalances.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh KRISTRADER1
5
GOLD QUANTUM MASTER🥇 GOLD QUANTUM MASTER 🥇 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ A high-performance technical analysis suite engineered for institutional-grade precision on Gold (XAUUSD) and Bitcoin (BTCUSD). This Core Edition focuses on raw analytical power without external API overhead. 🚀 KEY FEATURES: • INSTITUTIONAL FOOTPRINT: Advanced volume-to-MA filters to identify "Big Money" participation. • HTF REVERSAL SCANNER: Specialized logic for 30m, 1H, and 4H charts to detect Pinbar and Engulfing reversals. • LIQUIDITY FLOW ANALYTICS: Detects and highlights Previous Day High (PDH) and Low (PDL) sweeps. • TREND EXHAUSTION FILTERS: Built-in RSI divergence logic to prevent entries at trend peaks or bottoms. • PREMIUM DATA LABELS: Real-time on-chart display of Signal Mode, Quality Score, and dynamic targets. • NEON VISUAL SYSTEM: High-contrast, glassmorphic layout for maximum clarity during trading sessions. BEST FOR: Technical Analysts, Manual Traders, and High-Performance Charting. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ The best work on Higher time frames, I still not tested on lower time frames, but should be also precise. Feel free to adjust the settings to your own needs. Make your own decisions when you trade, do not put all confidence into a script, it may fail also.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh Uncle_SamFx
3
ICT Entonnoir Strategy by DEVZHR### ICT Funnel Strategy - Smart Money Concepts Indicator **Description:** This advanced indicator implements a complete Smart Money trading methodology, designed to help traders identify high-probability entry points on any market. **Key Features:** 🎯 **Multi-Session Analysis** - Automatic detection of major trading sessions (London, New York, Asian) - Visual session boxes showing session highs and lows - Customizable session times with timezone support 📊 **Market Structure Recognition** - Identifies key market structure shifts - Highlights potential reversal zones - Tracks daily reference levels (PDH/PDL) 📦 **Zone Detection** - Automatically marks significant price zones - Identifies areas of institutional interest - Premium/Discount zone classification 🔔 **Smart Entry Signals** - BUY/SELL signals with Entry, Stop Loss, and Take Profit levels - Risk:Reward ratio calculation - Customizable filters to match your trading style 📈 **Real-Time Dashboard** - Current session status - Daily bias indication - Signal readiness status - All key levels at a glance **How to Use:** 1. Add the indicator to your chart (works best on 5min-1H timeframes) 2. Set your timezone in the settings 3. Adjust session times to match your local time 4. Wait for signals during active sessions 5. Follow the Entry, SL, and TP levels provided **Settings:** - Session times (fully customizable) - Timezone offset - Signal filters (Kill Zone, zone requirements) - Minimum Risk:Reward ratio - Visual customization (colors, display options) **Best Practices:** - Use during high-volume sessions for best results - Combine with your own analysis for confirmation - Practice on demo account before live trading ⚠️ **Disclaimer:** This indicator is for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always manage your risk appropriately.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh devzhr2
Argentina Bonds TIR - Sovereign Bond Yield Curves Indicator# Argentina Bonds TIR A comprehensive indicator that calculates the Internal Rate of Return (IRR/TIR) for Argentine sovereign bonds and projects future price curves at fixed yield levels. ## Features **Real-time TIR Calculation** - Calculates current yield based on market price and expected cashflows - Uses Newton-Raphson iterative method for precise IRR calculation - Day count convention: Actual/365 with T+1 settlement **Automatic Currency Conversion** - Works with any trading currency: ARS, USD MEP (D suffix), USD Cable (C suffix) - Automatically converts prices using AL30/AL30D/AL30C ratios - Bonares use MEP conversion, Globales use Cable conversion **Yield Curve Projections** - Projects price curves 150 bars into the future (configurable) - Fixed TIR lines at 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%, 12% (each toggleable) - Current TIR line showing price trajectory at current yield - Custom TIR line with user-defined yield value **Clear Labeling** - Labels positioned near current date for easy reading (configurable offset) - Color-coded lines for quick identification - Info panel showing bond details, prices, TIR, and exchange rates ## Supported Bonds **Bonares** (Argentina legislation, USD MEP): AE38, AL29, AL30, AL35, AL41, AN29 **Globales** (Foreign legislation, USD Cable): GD29, GD30, GD35, GD38, GD41, GD46 ## How to Use 1. Apply indicator to any supported bond symbol (e.g., BCBA:AL30D, BCBA:GD35C) 2. The indicator auto-detects bond type and currency 3. View current TIR in the info panel 4. Use projected lines to visualize price targets at different yield levels 5. Toggle individual TIR lines on/off as needed 6. Add a custom TIR line for specific yield analysis ## Settings **Display**: Show/hide current TIR line, projection bars (30-300), label offset in days **Fixed TIR Lines**: Individual toggles for 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%, 12% **Custom TIR**: Enable custom TIR line, set value (%), choose color **Colors**: Customize colors for all lines ## Info Panel Shows bond ticker, type (Bonar/Global), trading currency, current price, native price, current TIR percentage, MEP and CCL exchange rates. --- ## Español Indicador que calcula la Tasa Interna de Retorno (TIR) para bonos soberanos argentinos y proyecta curvas de precios futuros a niveles fijos de rendimiento. ### Características - Cálculo de TIR en tiempo real usando método Newton-Raphson - Conversión automática de moneda (ARS, USD MEP, USD Cable) - Líneas de TIR fijas al 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%, 12% - Línea de TIR personalizada configurable - Panel informativo con detalles del bono y tipos de cambio ### Bonos Soportados - **Bonares** (USD MEP): AE38, AL29, AL30, AL35, AL41, AN29 - **Globales** (USD Cable): GD29, GD30, GD35, GD38, GD41, GD46 --- **DISCLAIMER**: This indicator is for informational and educational purposes only. Eco Valores S.A. does NOT provide investment advice or recommendations. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. **AVISO LEGAL**: Este indicador es solo para fines informativos y educativos. Eco Valores S.A. NO brinda asesoramiento ni recomendaciones de inversión. Consulte con un asesor financiero calificado antes de invertir.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh Eco Valores
Global Sovereign Spread MonitorIn the summer of 2011, the yield on Italian government bonds rose dramatically while German Bund yields fell to historic lows. This divergence, measured as the BTP-Bund spread, reached nearly 550 basis points in November of that year, signaling what would become the most severe test of the European monetary union since its inception. Portfolio managers who monitored this spread had days, sometimes weeks, of advance warning before equity markets crashed. Those who ignored it suffered significant losses. The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor is built on a simple but powerful observation that has been validated repeatedly in academic literature: sovereign bond spreads contain forward-looking information about systemic risk that is not fully reflected in equity prices (Longstaff et al., 2011). When investors demand higher yields to hold peripheral government debt relative to safe-haven bonds, they are expressing a view about credit risk, liquidity conditions, and the probability of systemic stress. This information, when properly analyzed, provides actionable signals for traders across all asset classes. The Science of Sovereign Spreads The academic study of government bond yield differentials began in earnest following the creation of the European Monetary Union. Codogno, Favero and Missale (2003) published what remains one of the foundational papers in this field, examining why yields on government bonds within a currency union should differ at all. Their analysis, published in Economic Policy, identified two primary drivers: credit risk and liquidity. Countries with higher debt-to-GDP ratios and weaker fiscal positions commanded higher yields, but importantly, these spreads widened dramatically during periods of market stress even when fundamentals had not changed significantly. This observation led to a crucial insight that Favero, Pagano and von Thadden (2010) explored in depth in the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. They found that liquidity effects can amplify credit risk during stress periods, creating a feedback loop where rising spreads reduce liquidity, which in turn pushes spreads even higher. This dynamic explains why sovereign spreads often move in non-linear fashion, remaining stable for extended periods before suddenly widening rapidly. Longstaff, Pan, Pedersen and Singleton (2011) extended this research in their American Economic Review paper by examining the relationship between sovereign credit default swap spreads and bond spreads across multiple countries. Their key finding was that a significant portion of sovereign credit risk is driven by global factors rather than country-specific fundamentals. This means that when spreads widen in Italy, it often reflects broader risk aversion that will eventually affect other asset classes including equities and corporate bonds. The practical implication of this research is clear: sovereign spreads function as a leading indicator for systemic risk. Aizenman, Hutchison and Jinjarak (2013) confirmed this in their analysis of European sovereign debt default probabilities, finding that spread movements preceded rating downgrades and provided earlier warning signals than traditional fundamental analysis. How the Indicator Works The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor translates these academic findings into a systematic framework for monitoring credit conditions. The indicator calculates yield differentials between peripheral government bonds and German Bunds, which serve as the benchmark safe-haven asset in European markets. Italian ten-year yields minus German ten-year yields produce the BTP-Bund spread, the single most important metric for Eurozone stress. Spanish yields minus German yields produce the Bonos-Bund spread, providing a secondary confirmation signal. The transatlantic US-Bund spread captures divergence between the two major safe-haven markets. Raw spreads are converted to Z-scores, which measure how many standard deviations the current spread is from its historical average over the lookback period. This normalization is essential because absolute spread levels vary over time with interest rate cycles and structural changes in sovereign debt markets. A spread of 150 basis points might have been concerning in 2007 but entirely normal in 2023 following the European debt crisis and subsequent ECB interventions. The composite index combines these individual Z-scores using weights that reflect the relative importance of each spread for global risk assessment. Italy receives the highest weight because it represents the third-largest sovereign bond market globally and any Italian debt crisis would have systemic implications for the entire Eurozone. Spain provides confirmation of peripheral stress, while the US-Bund spread captures flight-to-quality dynamics between the two primary safe-haven markets. Regime classification transforms the continuous Z-score into discrete states that correspond to different market environments. The Stress regime indicates that spreads have widened to levels historically associated with crisis periods. The Elevated regime signals rising risk aversion that warrants increased attention. Normal conditions represent typical spread behavior, while the Calm regime may actually signal complacency and potential mean-reversion opportunities. Retail Trader Applications For individual traders without access to institutional research teams, the Global Sovereign Spread Monitor provides a window into the macro environment that typically remains opaque. The most immediate application is risk management for equity positions. Consider a trader holding a diversified portfolio of European stocks. When the composite Z-score rises above 1.0 and enters the Elevated regime, historical data suggests an increased probability of equity market drawdowns in the coming days to weeks. This does not mean the trader must immediately liquidate all positions, but it does suggest reducing position sizes, tightening stop-losses, or adding hedges such as put options or inverse ETFs. The BTP-Bund spread specifically provides actionable information for anyone trading EUR/USD or European equity indices. Research by De Grauwe and Ji (2013) demonstrated that sovereign spreads and currency movements are closely linked during stress periods. When the BTP-Bund spread widens sharply, the Euro typically weakens against the Dollar as investors question the sustainability of the monetary union. A retail forex trader can use the indicator to time entries into EUR/USD short positions or to exit long positions before spread-driven selloffs occur. The regime classification system simplifies decision-making for traders who cannot constantly monitor multiple data feeds. When the dashboard displays Stress, it is time to adopt a defensive posture regardless of what individual stock charts might suggest. When it displays Calm, the trader knows that risk appetite is elevated across institutional markets, which typically supports equity prices but also means that any negative catalyst could trigger a sharp reversal. Mean-reversion signals provide opportunities for more active traders. When spreads reach extreme levels in either direction, they tend to revert toward their historical average. A Z-score above 2.0 that begins declining suggests professional investors are starting to buy peripheral debt again, which historically precedes broader risk-on behavior. A Z-score below minus 1.0 that starts rising may indicate that complacency is ending and risk-off positioning is beginning. The key for retail traders is to use the indicator as a filter rather than a primary signal generator. If technical analysis suggests a long entry in European stocks, check the sovereign spread regime first. If spreads are elevated or rising, the technical setup becomes higher risk. If spreads are stable or compressing, the technical signal has a higher probability of success. Professional Applications Institutional investors use sovereign spread analysis in more sophisticated ways that go beyond simple risk filtering. Systematic macro funds incorporate spread data into quantitative models that generate trading signals across multiple asset classes simultaneously. Portfolio managers at large asset allocators use sovereign spreads to make strategic allocation decisions. When the composite Z-score trends higher over several weeks, they reduce exposure to peripheral European equities and bonds while increasing allocations to German Bunds, US Treasuries, and other safe-haven assets. This rotation often happens before explicit risk-off signals appear in equity markets, giving these investors a performance advantage. Fixed income specialists at banks and hedge funds use sovereign spreads for relative value trades. When the BTP-Bund spread widens to historically elevated levels but fundamentals have not deteriorated proportionally, they may go long Italian government bonds and short German Bunds, betting on mean reversion. These trades require careful risk management because spreads can widen further before reversing, but when properly sized they offer attractive risk-adjusted returns. Risk managers at financial institutions use sovereign spread monitoring as an input to Value-at-Risk models and stress testing frameworks. Elevated spreads indicate higher correlation among risk assets, which means diversification benefits are reduced precisely when they are needed most. This information feeds into position sizing decisions across the entire trading book. Currency traders at proprietary trading firms incorporate sovereign spreads into their EUR/USD and EUR/CHF models. The relationship between the BTP-Bund spread and EUR weakness is well-documented in academic literature and provides a systematic edge when combined with other factors such as interest rate differentials and positioning data. Central bank watchers use sovereign spreads to anticipate policy responses. The European Central Bank has demonstrated repeatedly that it will intervene when spreads reach levels that threaten financial stability, most notably through the Outright Monetary Transactions program announced in 2012 and the Transmission Protection Instrument introduced in 2022. Understanding spread dynamics helps investors anticipate these interventions and position accordingly. Interpreting the Dashboard The statistics panel provides real-time information that supports both quick assessments and deeper analysis. The composite Z-score is the primary metric, representing the weighted average of all spread Z-scores. Values above zero indicate spreads are wider than their historical average, while values below zero indicate compression. The magnitude matters: a reading of 0.5 suggests modestly elevated stress, while 2.0 or higher indicates conditions similar to historical crisis periods. The regime classification translates the Z-score into actionable categories. Stress should trigger immediate review of risk exposure and consideration of hedges. Elevated warrants increased vigilance and potentially reduced position sizes. Normal indicates no immediate concerns from sovereign markets. Calm suggests risk appetite may be elevated, which supports risk assets but also creates potential for sharp reversals if sentiment changes. The percentile ranking provides historical context by showing where the current Z-score falls within its distribution over the lookback period. A reading of 90 percent means spreads are wider than they have been 90 percent of the time over the past year, which is significant even if the absolute Z-score is not extreme. This metric helps identify when spreads are creeping higher before they reach official stress thresholds. Momentum indicates whether spreads are widening or compressing. Rising momentum during elevated spread conditions is particularly concerning because it suggests stress is accelerating. Falling momentum during stress suggests the worst may be past and mean reversion could be beginning. Individual spread readings allow traders to identify which component is driving the composite signal. If the BTP-Bund spread is elevated but Bonos-Bund remains normal, the stress may be Italy-specific rather than systemic. If all spreads are widening together, the signal reflects broader flight-to-quality that affects all risk assets. The bias indicator provides a simple summary for traders who need quick guidance. Risk-Off means spreads indicate defensive positioning is appropriate. Risk-On means spread conditions support risk-taking. Neutral means spreads provide no clear directional signal. Limitations and Risk Factors No indicator provides perfect signals, and sovereign spread analysis has specific limitations that users must understand. The European Central Bank has demonstrated its willingness to intervene in sovereign bond markets when spreads threaten financial stability. The Transmission Protection Instrument announced in 2022 specifically targets situations where spreads widen beyond levels justified by fundamentals. This creates a floor under peripheral bond prices and means that extremely elevated spreads may not persist as long as historical patterns would suggest. Political events can cause sudden spread movements that are impossible to anticipate. Elections, government formation crises, and policy announcements can move spreads by 50 basis points or more in a single session. The indicator will reflect these moves but cannot predict them. Liquidity conditions in sovereign bond markets can temporarily distort spread readings, particularly around quarter-end and year-end when banks adjust their balance sheets. These technical factors can cause spread widening or compression that does not reflect fundamental credit risk. The relationship between sovereign spreads and other asset classes is not constant over time. During some periods, spread movements lead equity moves by several days. During others, both markets move simultaneously. The indicator provides valuable information about credit conditions, but users should not expect mechanical relationships between spread signals and subsequent price moves in other markets. Conclusion The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor represents a systematic application of academic research on sovereign credit risk to practical trading decisions. The indicator monitors yield differentials between peripheral and safe-haven government bonds, normalizes these spreads using statistical methods, and classifies market conditions into regimes that correspond to different risk environments. For retail traders, the indicator provides risk management information that was previously available only to institutional investors with access to Bloomberg terminals and dedicated research teams. By checking the sovereign spread regime before executing trades, individual investors can avoid taking excessive risk during periods of elevated credit stress. For professional investors, the indicator offers a standardized framework for monitoring sovereign credit conditions that can be integrated into broader macro models and risk management systems. The real-time calculation of Z-scores, regime classifications, and component spreads provides the inputs needed for systematic trading strategies. The academic foundation is robust, built on peer-reviewed research published in top finance and economics journals over the past two decades. The practical applications have been validated through multiple market cycles including the European debt crisis of 2011-2012, the COVID-19 shock of 2020, and the rate normalization stress of 2022. Sovereign spreads will continue to provide valuable forward-looking information about systemic risk for as long as credit conditions vary across countries and investors respond rationally to changes in default probabilities. The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor makes this information accessible and actionable for traders at all levels of sophistication. References Aizenman, J., Hutchison, M. and Jinjarak, Y. (2013) What is the Risk of European Sovereign Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space, CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk. Journal of International Money and Finance, 34, pp. 37-59. Codogno, L., Favero, C. and Missale, A. (2003) Yield Spreads on EMU Government Bonds. Economic Policy, 18(37), pp. 503-532. De Grauwe, P. and Ji, Y. (2013) Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone: An Empirical Test. Journal of International Money and Finance, 34, pp. 15-36. Favero, C., Pagano, M. and von Thadden, E.L. (2010) How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 45(1), pp. 107-134. Longstaff, F.A., Pan, J., Pedersen, L.H. and Singleton, K.J. (2011) How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk? American Economic Review, 101(6), pp. 2191-2212. Manganelli, S. and Wolswijk, G. (2009) What Drives Spreads in the Euro Area Government Bond Market? Economic Policy, 24(58), pp. 191-240. Arghyrou, M.G. and Kontonikas, A. (2012) The EMU Sovereign-Debt Crisis: Fundamentals, Expectations and Contagion. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 22(4), pp. 658-677.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh EdgeTools
Seasonality AdvancedDescription This is a professional-grade Seasonality Analysis tool designed to project future price trends based on historical cyclical patterns. Unlike simple seasonal indicators that just average price, this script offers a statistical approach with a "Zero Gravity" visualization mode and a real-time Data Dashboard. Underlying Concepts & Methodology The script calculates the seasonal tendency by averaging the price performance of the same day/week over a user-defined lookback period (e.g., 5, 10, or 15 years). Data Alignment: It aligns historical data based on trading days (default 252) or calendar days to create a coherent "Annual Cycle". Smoothing: A Moving Average is applied to the raw seasonal data to filter out noise and reveal the true macro tendency. Correlation Engine: It calculates the real-time correlation between the current price action and the projected seasonal line. This acts as a "Lie Detector"—if correlation is high, the seasonal pattern is currently valid. Key Features Multi-Cycle Analysis: Plot up to 3 different seasonal baselines simultaneously (e.g., Short-term 5Y vs. Long-term 15Y cycles). Zero Gravity View: Uses a "Joyplot" style separation (Stacking) to prevent lines from overlapping messily, making it easier to compare different cycles. Statistical Dashboard: A built-in table displays Avg Return, WinRate, Volatility Risk, and Correlation. How to Use Projections: Use the lines extending into the future to anticipate potential turning points. Confluence: When the 5-year and 10-year lines point in the same direction, the probability increases. Filter: Watch the "Correlation" column in the table. Low correlation means the current market is decoupling from history. To comply with House Rules regarding non-English UI, here is the translation of the script's settings menu: 1. Cálculos Sazo 3 (Calculation Settings) Dias de negociação = Trading Days (Fixed 252 or Variable) Método de dias = Day Count Method (Min, Max, Avg) Projeção Futura (Barras) = Future Projection (Bars) Suavização (Média) = Smoothing (MA Length) Deslocamento = Offset 2. Visualização e Layout (Visuals) Empilhamento / Separação (%) = Stacking / Separation % Distância Vertical = Vertical Distance Distância da Etiqueta = Label Offset 3. Painel Estatístico (Statistics Panel) Mostrar Tabela = Show Table Mostrar Próximo Mês = Show Next Month Mostrar Linha Méd/Alvo = Show Avg/Target Row Texto Suave = Soft Text (Transparency) Período Correlação = Correlation Period Tema = Theme (Dark/Light) Tamanho = Size Posição = Position 4. Linha de Hoje (Today's Line) Mostrar Linha = Show Vertical Line Cor/Estilo/Espessura = Color/Style/Width 5. Linhas 1, 2, 3 (Seasonal Lines) Ativar Linha = Enable Line Período (anos) = Lookback Period (Years) Descrição Este indicador é uma ferramenta completa de Sazonalidade que projeta tendências futuras baseadas em padrões históricos. Ele inclui um painel estatístico exclusivo que mostra a probabilidade (WinRate) e a correlação do ciclo atual. Funcionalidades Projeção Futura: Desenha o comportamento provável do preço para os próximos dias. Painel Estatístico: Mostra retorno médio, risco e correlação em tempo real. Zero Gravity: Visualização empilhada para facilitar a leitura de múltiplos ciclos.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh marcaoemail_1
Engulfing Reversal PatternThe Engulfing Reversal Pattern indicator seeks out both bullish and bearish reversal patterns. This indicator offers the user numerous options to modify the indicator to their needs. Key features: Ability to adjust the size of the Engulfing candle in comparison to the prior candle Ability to adjust the number of breakout candles Indicator adapts to the Time Frame it is being used in You can choose between identifying only Bearish patterns, only Bullish patterns or both. Indicator Arrow size can be adjusted in size.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh bothwellpdx
Enhanced Macro-FX Predictor Pro+The Enhanced Macro-FX Predictor Pro+ is a sophisticated macroeconomic analysis tool designed for long-term currency forecasting. It integrates Commitment of Traders (COT) data, multi-model ensemble predictions, and dynamic market regime detection to provide comprehensive forex insights. 1. Core Methodology The indicator operates by analysing the fundamental health of the US economy and comparing it against six major currencies. US Score Calculation: Synthesises 15+ data points including GDP, Non-Farm Payrolls, Real Interest Rates (Fed Funds - CPI), and the Yield Curve. Currency Specific Analysis: Each currency is scored based on its specific momentum, risk sensitivity (Beta), and correlation to commodities (e.g., AUD and CAD with Oil). Enhanced COT Analysis: Unlike standard indicators, this uses a momentum-based COT index that detects "extremes" in commercial positioning to identify potential reversal zones. 2. Key Interface Elements Market Regime Indicator The system constantly monitors market volatility (VIX), growth (GDP), and monetary trends to categorize the environment: RISK_ON / RISK_ON_MODERATE: Signals environment favorable for growth-sensitive pairs (AUD, GBP). RISK_OFF / RISK_OFF_MODERATE: Indicates safe-haven dominance (USD, JPY, CHF). NEUTRAL: Balanced market conditions. Confidence Scoring (Conf%) Every prediction includes a confidence percentage (30% to 98%) calculated based on: Trend Alignment: Consistency across short, medium, and long-term trends. Model Accuracy: Real-time error tracking of the ensemble models. Regime Clarity: Strength of the current market regime signal. Dynamic Position Sizing (Size) The "Size" column provides a recommended weight (0.1x to 3.0x) based on prediction strength, confidence level, and current market volatility. 3. How to Use Settings ⚙️ Core Settings Prediction Period (Days): Set your horizon (default 63 days). Longer horizons naturally decrease confidence scores. Use Enhanced Ensemble: When enabled, the tool uses three different mathematical models (Linear Regression, EMA, and Momentum) to generate a consensus. 📈 Enhanced COT Settings COT Base Weight: Controls how much the Commitment of Traders data influences the final currency score (default 30%). Extreme Positioning Boost: Multiplies the signal strength when "Smart Money" reaches historical extremes. 🤖 Model Settings Volatility Adjustment: If enabled, the indicator automatically smooths signals during high-volatility periods to prevent "saw-toothing" or false breakouts. 4. Understanding Signals Signals: Meanings : Action STRONG_BUY/SELL: High magnitude divergence between current and predicted strength. : Primary trade opportunities. BUY/SELL: Moderate trend strength. : Confirmation of existing trends. LOW_CONF : Confidence score is below your "Min Confidence %" setting. : Avoid taking new positions. NEUTRAL: Little to no divergence in macro models. : Stay on the sidelines. 5. Risk Management & Performance Adaptive Weights: The script automatically shifts its focus (e.g., emphasizing Inflation data when CPI is high) to mirror real-world central bank priorities. Target and Pips: The target price is a projection based on macro-divergence; it is intended as a directional guide rather than a precise take-profit level. Note: This tool is designed for daily (D), weekly (W), or monthly (M) timeframes for maximum accuracy.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh L2Earned
CBDR Standard Deviation V2CBDR Standard Deviation measures how far price statistically deviates from the central bank dealer range before institutional rebalancing occurs. CBDR defines fair value, while standard deviation highlights liquidity expansion zones. Moves into ±2 SD or beyond often signal stop-loss sweeps and inventory imbalance, where institutions favor mean reversion, not breakouts. CBDR SD Core Checklist □ Daily IPDA bias defined □ Clean CBDR formed (Asia / early London) □ CBDR high & low marked □ ±1 and ±2 SD levels plotted □ Liquidity sweep beyond CBDR □ No high-impact news in session CBDR SD Reversal Trade Checklist □ Price taps ±2 SD or ±2.5 SD □ Clear rejection (wick / displacement) □ Entry against the expansion, not on breakout □ Stop placed beyond liquidity extreme □ TP1: CBDR boundary □ TP2: CBDR midpoint (mean) □ TP3 (optional): Opposite CBDR extreme □ Invalidate if strong trend displacement continues This reversal model captures institutional fade trades after liquidity is harvested, keeping execution statistical, disciplined, and prop-firm resilient.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh jasiremail