Local Model Kalman Market ModeIntroduction
Heyo guys, I made a new (repainting) indicator called Local Model Kalman Market Mode.
I created it, because I wanted a reliable market mode filter for a potential mean-reversion strategy (e. g. BB Scalping).
On the screenshot you can see an example of how to use it in a BB strategy.
E.g. you would enter long when you have bullish divergence, price is under lower BB, price is under PoC and this indicator here shows range-bound market phase.
You would exit long on cross of the middle band.
Description
The indicator attempts to model the underlying market using different local models (i.e., trending, range-bound, and choppy) and combines them using the T3 Six Pole Kalman Filter to generate an overall estimate of the market.
The Fisher Transform is applied on the price to reach a Gaussian distribution, which increases the accuracy of the indicator itself.
The script first defines state variables for each local model, which include trend direction, trend strength, upper and lower bounds of the range, volatility of the range, level of choppiness, and strength of noise.
Then, likelihood functions are defined for each local model based on the state variables.
Next, the script calculates weights for each local model based on their likelihoods and uses them to calculate state variables for the overall estimate.
Finally, the script combines the state variables using the T3 Six Pole Kalman Filter to generate the overall estimate of the market, which is plotted in blue.
Fundamental Knowledge
To understand the explanation of the indicator and the script, there are a few fundamental concepts that you need to know:
Market: A market is a place where buyers and sellers come together to exchange goods or services.
In the context of trading, the market refers to the exchange where financial instruments such as stocks, currencies, and commodities are bought and sold.
Local models: Local models are statistical models that attempt to capture the characteristics of a particular market regime.
For example, a trending market may have different characteristics than a range-bound market or a choppy market.
The indicator uses different local models to capture the different market regimes.
Trend direction and strength: The trend direction refers to the direction in which the market is moving, either up or down.
The trend strength refers to the magnitude of the trend and how likely it is to continue.
Range-bound market: A range-bound market is a market where prices are trading within a specific range, with a clear upper and lower bound.
Choppiness: Choppiness refers to the degree of irregularity in price movements, often seen in sideways or range-bound markets.
Volatility: Volatility refers to the degree of variation in the price of an asset over time. High volatility implies larger price swings, while low volatility implies smaller price swings.
Kalman filter: A Kalman filter is a mathematical algorithm used to estimate an unknown variable from a series of noisy measurements.
In the context of the indicator, the Kalman filter is used to generate an overall estimate of the market by combining the local models.
T3 Six Pole Kalman Filter: The T3 Six Pole Kalman Filter is a specific type of Kalman filter that is used to smooth and filter time-series data, such as the price data of a financial instrument.
Fisher Transform: The Fisher Transform is a mathematical formula used to transform any probability distribution into a Gaussian normal distribution. It is commonly used in technical analysis to transform non-Gaussian indicators into ones that are more suitable for statistical analysis.
By understanding these fundamental concepts, you should have a basic understanding of how the indicator works and how it generates an overall estimate of the market.
Usage
You can use this indicator on every timeframe.
Users can customize the parameters of the T3 Six Pole Kalman Filter (T3 length, alpha, beta, gamma, and delta) using input functions.
Try out different parameter combinations and use the one you like most.
Thank you for checking this out. Leave me a comment or boost the script, when you wanna support me! 👌
--
Credits to:
▪@HPotter - Fisher Transform
▪@loxx - T3
▪ChatGPT - Helped me to make the research for this indicator and helped to build the core algorithm.
Marketmode
[blackcat] L3 Ehlers Market Mode IndicatorLevel: 3
Background
John F. Ehlers introuced Market Mode Indicator on April, 2012.
Function
This indicator is used to determine whether the market is in a trending or a cyclical mode. This is accomplished by comparing the average value of price, after being filtered to the peaks and valleys of that filtered price. The filter used in this indicator is a second order butterworth filter. For more information on this calculation see "Introducing SwamiCharts" (March 2012) and "Empirical Mode Decomposition" (March 2010) from Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities by Dr. Ehlers.
Key Signal
MeanCalc --> short term fast line
MeanCalc(2) --> short term slow line
long ---> long entry signal
short ---> short entry signal
Pros and Cons
NOT 100% John F. Ehlers definition translation, even variable names are the same. This help readers who would like to use pine to read his book.
Remarks
The 80th script for Blackcat1402 John F. Ehlers Week publication.
I kept the core of Ehlers market mode indicator, but add conditons for long and short entries which i think they are reasonable.
Readme
In real life, I am a prolific inventor. I have successfully applied for more than 60 international and regional patents in the past 12 years. But in the past two years or so, I have tried to transfer my creativity to the development of trading strategies. Tradingview is the ideal platform for me. I am selecting and contributing some of the hundreds of scripts to publish in Tradingview community. Welcome everyone to interact with me to discuss these interesting pine scripts.
The scripts posted are categorized into 5 levels according to my efforts or manhours put into these works.
Level 1 : interesting script snippets or distinctive improvement from classic indicators or strategy. Level 1 scripts can usually appear in more complex indicators as a function module or element.
Level 2 : composite indicator/strategy. By selecting or combining several independent or dependent functions or sub indicators in proper way, the composite script exhibits a resonance phenomenon which can filter out noise or fake trading signal to enhance trading confidence level.
Level 3 : comprehensive indicator/strategy. They are simple trading systems based on my strategies. They are commonly containing several or all of entry signal, close signal, stop loss, take profit, re-entry, risk management, and position sizing techniques. Even some interesting fundamental and mass psychological aspects are incorporated.
Level 4 : script snippets or functions that do not disclose source code. Interesting element that can reveal market laws and work as raw material for indicators and strategies. If you find Level 1~2 scripts are helpful, Level 4 is a private version that took me far more efforts to develop.
Level 5 : indicator/strategy that do not disclose source code. private version of Level 3 script with my accumulated script processing skills or a large number of custom functions. I had a private function library built in past two years. Level 5 scripts use many of them to achieve private trading strategy.
[blackcat] L2 Ehlers Market Mode IdentifierLevel: 2
Background
John F. Ehlers introuced Market Mode Identifier in his "Rocket Science for Traders" chapter 11. The simplified model of the market, derived from the Drunkard's Walk problem, has only two modes-the Cycle Mode and the Trend Mode. Through the derivation of the Sinewave Indicator and the Instantaneous Trendline, Ehlers had shown several ways to estimate which mode the market may have for a given moment. As with most technical indicators, the decision point between modes is not clear-cut. In fact, trying to automate the decision often leads to a great deal of chatter and rapid back and
forth switching of decisions.
Function
blackcat L2 Ehlers Market Mode Identifier is used to identify market status is in Trend Mode or Cycle Mode.Since the Cycle Mode exists for the smallest fraction of time and since most traders make the most money following a trend rather than a cycle, it is best to assume that the market is in a Trend Mode unless some very specific criteria are met. There are only two criteria to establish a Cycle Mode. First, a Cycle Mode exists for the period of a half-dominant cycle after the crossing of the two Sinewave Indicator lines. Second, a Cycle Mode exists if the measured phase rate of change is more than two-thirds the phase rate of change of the dominant cycle (2*pi /Period) and is less
than 1.5 times the phase rate of change of the dominant cycle. There is another condition that defines a Trend Mode. This condition is derived from pragmatic observation, not theoretical considerations. When the market makes a major reversal, it often does this with great vigor. When this occurs, the prices have a wide separation from the Instantaneous Trendline. When the prices are widely separated from the Instantaneous Trendline, it is possible for the Cycle Mode conditions to be met-but the Cycle Mode identification is clearly incorrect. Dr. Ehlers have therefore inserted another overriding rule for these cases. That rule is that if the SmoothPrice (the 4-bar WMA of the Price) is separated by more than 1.5 percent from the Instantaneous Trendline, then the correct market mode is the Trend Mode.
Key Signal
Smooth --> 4 bar WMA w/ 1 bar lag
Detrender --> The amplitude response of a minimum-length HT can be improved by adjusting the filter coefficients by
trial and error. HT does not allow DC component at zero frequency for transformation. So, Detrender is used to remove DC component/ trend component.
Q1 --> Quadrature phase signal
I1 --> In-phase signal
Period --> Dominant Cycle in bars
SmoothPeriod --> Period with complex averaging
DCPeriod ---> Dominant Cycle Period
Trendline ---> IT fast line
SmoothPrice ---> IT slow line
Trend ---> Trend identifier: 1 for trend; 0 for cycle.
Pros and Cons
100% John F. Ehlers definition translation of original work, even variable names are the same. This help readers who would like to use pine to read his book. If you had read his works, then you will be quite familiar with my code style.
NOTE: I had tried several time frames, and found it did not work well for time frame < 1W.
Remarks
The 10th script for Blackcat1402 John F. Ehlers Week publication.
Readme
In real life, I am a prolific inventor. I have successfully applied for more than 60 international and regional patents in the past 12 years. But in the past two years or so, I have tried to transfer my creativity to the development of trading strategies. Tradingview is the ideal platform for me. I am selecting and contributing some of the hundreds of scripts to publish in Tradingview community. Welcome everyone to interact with me to discuss these interesting pine scripts.
The scripts posted are categorized into 5 levels according to my efforts or manhours put into these works.
Level 1 : interesting script snippets or distinctive improvement from classic indicators or strategy. Level 1 scripts can usually appear in more complex indicators as a function module or element.
Level 2 : composite indicator/strategy. By selecting or combining several independent or dependent functions or sub indicators in proper way, the composite script exhibits a resonance phenomenon which can filter out noise or fake trading signal to enhance trading confidence level.
Level 3 : comprehensive indicator/strategy. They are simple trading systems based on my strategies. They are commonly containing several or all of entry signal, close signal, stop loss, take profit, re-entry, risk management, and position sizing techniques. Even some interesting fundamental and mass psychological aspects are incorporated.
Level 4 : script snippets or functions that do not disclose source code. Interesting element that can reveal market laws and work as raw material for indicators and strategies. If you find Level 1~2 scripts are helpful, Level 4 is a private version that took me far more efforts to develop.
Level 5 : indicator/strategy that do not disclose source code. private version of Level 3 script with my accumulated script processing skills or a large number of custom functions. I had a private function library built in past two years. Level 5 scripts use many of them to achieve private trading strategy.
