Monetarypolicy — Penunjuk dan Strategi

FX Rate Bias US vs EU 2Y FX Rate Bias – US vs EU (2Y) This indicator implements a rate-differential based macro bias model using the 2-year government bond yield spread between the United States and Germany. The methodology focuses on the short end of the yield curve, which primarily reflects central bank expectations rather than long-term inflation or risk premiums. By applying light smoothing and a zero-line regime framework, the script classifies market conditions into USD rate advantage or EUR rate advantage states. Calculation logic: Retrieves daily 2Y sovereign yields for the US and Germany Computes the yield differential (US − DE) Applies optional smoothing to reduce noise Uses the zero line as a regime boundary to define relative monetary bias Practical use: This tool is designed to provide directional macro context for FX analysis, particularly for EURUSD. It helps traders align technical setups with prevailing interest rate expectations, and is not intended as a standalone signal or timing indicator.

FX Rate Bias US vs EU 2Y FX Rate Bias – US vs EU (2Y) This indicator provides a macro bias framework for FX markets by tracking the 2-year government bond yield differential between the United States and Germany. Rather than displaying the spread as a raw calculation, the script translates interest-rate expectations into a clear directional bias, helping traders understand which currency currently holds a rate advantage. The 2Y segment of the yield curve is highly sensitive to: Central bank expectations Forward guidance Shifts in short-term monetary policy outlook How to use Positive spread → USD rate advantage Negative spread → EUR rate advantage Designed to be used as a contextual macro tool, this indicator helps align technical setups with broader monetary conditions. It is not intended as a standalone entry or signal generator.

PCE Inflation Monitor (Change YoY & MoM)📊 PCE Inflation Monitor - The Fed's Most Important Metric Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure and THE metric they target for their 2% inflation goal. If you want to predict Fed policy, you need to watch PCE. 🎯 KEY FEATURES: - Dual Perspective Analysis: - Year-over-Year (YoY): Histogram bars showing annual PCE inflation - Month-over-Month (MoM): Line overlay showing monthly consumption price changes - Visual Reference System: - Dashed line at 2% (Fed's official PCE inflation target) - Dotted line at 0.17% (equivalent monthly target) - Color-coded bars: Red above Fed target, Green below target - Real-Time Data Table: - Current PCE Index value - YoY inflation rate vs. Fed's 2% target - MoM inflation rate with color coding - Exact deviation from Fed target (critical for policy predictions) - Automated Alerts: - PCE crosses Fed's 2% target (major policy signal!) - MoM crosses monthly target - Stay informed of Fed-relevant inflation changes 📈 WHY PCE IS DIFFERENT (AND MORE IMPORTANT): PCE vs. CPI differences: - Flexible basket: PCE adjusts for substitution (beef → chicken if prices rise) - Broader coverage: Includes healthcare paid by insurance/government - Lower readings: Typically 0.2-0.4% below CPI - Fed's choice: Explicitly stated as their target metric Most importantly: When Powell speaks about "our 2% target," he means PCE, not CPI! 🔍 TRADING IMPLICATIONS: PCE Above 2% (Red Zone): → Fed under pressure to maintain/raise rates → Hawkish policy stance likely → Negative for growth stocks, crypto → Positive for USD, bearish for gold PCE Below 2% (Green Zone): → Fed has flexibility to cut rates → Dovish policy stance possible → Positive for risk assets, growth stocks → Negative for USD, bullish for commodities PCE Approaching 2% from Above: → Fed "mission accomplished" narrative → Rate cut cycle becomes possible → Major bullish signal for equities/crypto 💡 ADVANCED STRATEGIES: 1. Fed Meeting Preparation: Check PCE before FOMC meetings for policy clues 2. Dot Plot Predictions: PCE trend determines Fed's rate forecast updates 3. Pivot Timing: When PCE MoM turns negative, Fed pivot becomes realistic 4. Press Conference Analysis: Compare Powell's comments to PCE deviation 🎯 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH: - 2.0% YoY: Fed's official target - crossing this level is major news - 2.5% YoY: "Uncomfortably high" - Fed forced to stay restrictive - 3.0% YoY: "Crisis mode" - Fed turns very hawkish - 1.5% YoY: "Below target" - Rate cuts become likely 🔄 COMBINE WITH: - CPI: Public perception vs. Fed's metric (often diverge) - Core PCE: Even more important (excludes food/energy volatility) - Fed Funds Rate: Is Fed responding appropriately to PCE? 📊 DATA SOURCE: Official PCE data from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), updated monthly typically in the last week of each month (after CPI/PPI releases). 🎨 CUSTOMIZATION: Fully customizable: - Toggle YoY/MoM displays - Adjust Fed target if needed - Customize colors - Show/hide absolute PCE values Perfect for: Fed watchers, macro traders, policy analysts, and serious investors who want to predict monetary policy changes before they happen. ⚠️ CRITICAL INSIGHT: While media focuses on CPI, the Fed focuses on PCE. Trade what the Fed trades, not what the headlines say. 🎓 Pro Tip: Fed members often mention "Core PCE" (excluding food/energy). Consider adding that indicator alongside this one for complete Fed policy analysis.

CPI Inflation Monitor (Change YoY & MoM)📊 CPI Inflation Monitor - Complete Macro Analysis Tool This indicator provides a comprehensive view of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation trends, essential for understanding monetary policy, market conditions, and making informed trading decisions. 🎯 KEY FEATURES: - Dual Perspective Analysis: - Year-over-Year (YoY): Histogram bars showing annual inflation rate - Month-over-Month (MoM): Line overlay showing monthly price changes - Visual Reference System: - Dashed line at 2% (Fed's official inflation target for YoY) - Dotted line at 0.17% (equivalent monthly target for MoM) - Color-coded bars: Red above target, Green below target - Real-Time Data Table: - Current CPI Index value - YoY inflation rate with color coding - MoM inflation rate with color coding - Deviation from Fed target - Automated Alerts: - YoY crosses above/below 2% target - MoM crosses above/below 0.17% target - Perfect for staying informed without constant monitoring 📈 WHY THIS MATTERS FOR TRADERS: CPI is the most widely reported inflation metric and directly influences: - Federal Reserve interest rate decisions - Bond yields and currency valuations - Stock market sentiment (especially growth vs. value rotation) - Cryptocurrency and risk asset performance Rising inflation (red bars) typically leads to: → Higher interest rates → Negative for growth stocks, crypto → Stronger USD → Pressure on commodities Falling inflation (green bars) typically leads to: → Rate cut expectations → Positive for growth stocks, crypto → Weaker USD → Support for commodities 🔍 HOW TO USE: 1. Strategic Positioning: Use YoY trend (thick bars) for long-term asset allocation 2. Tactical Timing: Use MoM trend (thin line) to identify turning points early 3. Divergence Trading: When MoM falls but YoY remains high, anticipate trend reversal 4. Fed Policy Prediction: Distance from 2% target indicates Fed's likely hawkishness 💡 PRO TIPS: - Multiple months of MoM above 0.3% = Accelerating inflation → Fed turns hawkish - MoM turning negative while YoY still elevated = Peak inflation → Position for pivot - Compare with PPI and PCE indicators for complete inflation picture - Use alerts to catch important threshold crossings automatically 📊 DATA SOURCE: Official CPI data from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), updated monthly mid-month when new data releases occur. 🎨 CUSTOMIZATION: Fully customizable through settings: - Toggle YoY/MoM displays - Adjust target levels - Customize colors for visual preference - Show/hide absolute CPI values Perfect for: Macro traders, swing traders, long-term investors, and anyone wanting to understand the inflation environment affecting their portfolio. Note: This indicator works on any chart timeframe as it loads external monthly economic data.

Sovereign Gold Hodlers Script for comparing nations and their gold, with options including: Default Comparing the Price of Gold Use Relative Valuations price / prior price Measure Reserves/Price GDP/Gold Price GDP/Gold Reserves Given the state of the world I thought it'd be good do see where countries stand, how much real money they hold. I think gold is going to play an increased role in trade between economies in the near future.