Fibs Has Lied 🌟 Fibs Has Lied - Indicator Overview 🌟
Designed for indices like US30, NQ, and SPX, this indicator highlights setups where price interacts with key EMA levels during specific trading sessions (default: 6:30–11:30 AM EST).
🌟 Key Features & Levels 🌟
🔹EMA Crossover Setups
The indicator uses the 100-period and 200-period EMAs to identify bullish and bearish setups:
- Bullish Setup: Triggers when the 100 EMA crosses above the 200 EMA, followed by two consecutive candles opening above the 100 EMA, with the low within a specified point distance (e.g., 20 points for US30).
- Bearish Setup: Triggers when the 100 EMA crosses below the 200 EMA, followed by two consecutive candles opening below the 100 EMA, with the high within the point distance.
- Signals are marked with green (buy) or red (sell) triangles and text, ensuring you don’t miss a setup. 📈
🔹 Reset Conditions for Re-Entries
After an initial setup, the indicator watches for “reset” opportunities:
- Buy Reset: If price moves below the 200 EMA after a bullish crossover, then returns with two consecutive candles where lows are above the 100 EMA (within point distance), a new buy signal is plotted.
- Sell Reset: If price moves above the 200 EMA after a bearish crossover, then returns with two consecutive candles where highs are below the 100 EMA (within point distance), a new sell signal is plotted.
This feature captures additional entries after liquidity grabs or fakeouts, aligning with ICT’s manipulation concepts. 🔄
🔹 Session-Based Filtering
Focus your trades during high-liquidity windows! The default session (6:30–11:30 AM EST, New York timezone) targets the London/NY overlap, where price often seeks liquidity or sets up for reversals. Toggle the time filter off for 24/7 signals if desired. 🕒
🔹Symbol-Specific Point Distance
Customizable entry zones based on your chosen index:
- US30: 20 points from the 100 EMA.
- NQ: 3 points from the 100 EMA.
- SPX: 2.5 points from the 100 EMA.
This ensures setups are tailored to the volatility of your market, maximizing relevance. 🎯
🔹 Market Structure Markers (Optional)
Visualize swing points with pivot-based labels:
- HH (Higher High): Signals uptrend continuation.
- HL (Higher Low): Indicates potential bullish support.
- LH (Lower High): Suggests weakening uptrend or reversal.
- LL (Lower Low): Points to downtrend continuation.
- Toggle these on/off to keep your chart clean while analyzing trend direction. 📊
🔹 EMA Visualization
Optionally plot the 100 EMA (blue) and 200 EMA (red) to see key levels where price reacts. These act as dynamic support/resistance, perfect for spotting liquidity pools or ICT’s Power of 3 setups. ⚖️
🌟 Customization Options 🌟
- Symbol Selection: Choose US30, NQ, or SPX to adjust point distance for entries.
- Time Filter: Enable/disable the 6:30–11:30 AM EST session to focus on high-liquidity periods.
- EMA Display: Toggle 100/200 EMAs on/off to reduce chart clutter.
- Market Structure: Show/hide HH/HL/LH/LL labels for cleaner analysis.
- Signal Markers: Green (buy) and red (sell) triangles with text are auto-plotted for easy identification.
🌟 Usage Tips 🌟
- Best Timeframes: Use on 3m for intraday scalping and 30m for swing trades.
- Combine with ICT Tools: Pair with order blocks, fair value gaps, or kill zones for stronger setups.
- Focus on Session: The default 6:30–11:30 AM EST session captures London/NY volatility—perfect for liquidity-driven moves.
- Avoid Overcrowding: Disable market structure or EMAs if you only want setup signals.
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Sniper NAS100 Swiss Knife IndicatorSniper Trading System – Master Indicator
Description:
“Trade with the precision of the market makers themselves.”
The Sniper Trading System – Master Indicator is the crown jewel of institutional-level trading tools, engineered for those who demand perfect timing, deadly accuracy, and surgical execution in any market.
Designed by a 3× ASCAP Award-winning, multi–funded prop firm trader, this system fuses algorithmic precision with battle-tested price action logic, delivering an unmatched trading edge across Forex, Futures, Indices, and Crypto.
Core Features
Dealer Range Mapping – Auto-detects the hidden accumulation/distribution zones that drive market direction.
Multi-Standard Deviation Targets – Projected with gradient precision (+1 to +4 / -1 to -4) for scalps or swing holds.
12 AM Bias Candle Logic – Reveals the true daily directional bias before the herd even wakes up.
Liquidity Sweep Detection – Spots equal highs/lows & engineered stop hunts before the main move.
Kill Zone Time Windows – Pre-programmed with the London Session Sniper Hours & New York Precision Plays.
Multi-Timeframe RSI Filter – Filters false signals & highlights exhaustion points for sniper entries.
Dynamic Alerts – Fire real-time push, email, or webhook notifications for entry, exit, and confluence events.
How It Works
Identify Bias – Use the 12 AM candle + DXY/RSI overlays to confirm bullish or bearish control.
Wait for Liquidity Sweep – Let the market makers hunt stops; your job is to wait.
Execute at Kill Zones – Follow the preloaded precision entry times for God-tier sniper plays.
Ride to Target Zones – Exit at projected standard deviation levels for mathematically consistent profits.
Ideal For
Day Traders looking for clean entries and exits.
Vertical Line Timeline 10 Inputs by LK**Vertical Line Timeline (10 Inputs)**
This TradingView indicator plots vertical lines on your chart at up to **10 specific times of day**. You can define each time in **HH.MM format** (e.g., `9.30` for 9:30 AM). When the current bar’s time matches any of the defined times (based on the chart’s timezone), the indicator automatically draws a **full-height vertical line** at that bar.
**Features:**
* **Up to 10 custom time inputs** (HH.MM format)
* **Custom color** for each time marker
* **Adjustable line width** (1–6 px)
* **Solid or dotted style** toggle
* **Full-height vertical lines** (extend through the entire chart height)
* Works on any intraday timeframe where bar start times can match the defined times
* No labels or extra elements — clean and minimal display
**Use cases:**
* Marking important market sessions (e.g., London Open, New York Open, Asian Close)
* Highlighting personal trade execution windows
* Visual cues for strategy backtesting or time-based setups
Kelly Position Size CalculatorThis position sizing calculator implements the Kelly Criterion, developed by John L. Kelly Jr. at Bell Laboratories in 1956, to determine mathematically optimal position sizes for maximizing long-term wealth growth. Unlike arbitrary position sizing methods, this tool provides a scientifically solution based on your strategy's actual performance statistics and incorporates modern refinements from over six decades of academic research.
The Kelly Criterion addresses a fundamental question in capital allocation: "What fraction of capital should be allocated to each opportunity to maximize growth while avoiding ruin?" This question has profound implications for financial markets, where traders and investors constantly face decisions about optimal capital allocation (Van Tharp, 2007).
Theoretical Foundation
The Kelly Criterion for binary outcomes is expressed as f* = (bp - q) / b, where f* represents the optimal fraction of capital to allocate, b denotes the risk-reward ratio, p indicates the probability of success, and q represents the probability of loss (Kelly, 1956). This formula maximizes the expected logarithm of wealth, ensuring maximum long-term growth rate while avoiding the risk of ruin.
The mathematical elegance of Kelly's approach lies in its derivation from information theory. Kelly's original work was motivated by Claude Shannon's information theory (Shannon, 1948), recognizing that maximizing the logarithm of wealth is equivalent to maximizing the rate of information transmission. This connection between information theory and wealth accumulation provides a deep theoretical foundation for optimal position sizing.
The logarithmic utility function underlying the Kelly Criterion naturally embodies several desirable properties for capital management. It exhibits decreasing marginal utility, penalizes large losses more severely than it rewards equivalent gains, and focuses on geometric rather than arithmetic mean returns, which is appropriate for compounding scenarios (Thorp, 2006).
Scientific Implementation
This calculator extends beyond basic Kelly implementation by incorporating state of the art refinements from academic research:
Parameter Uncertainty Adjustment: Following Michaud (1989), the implementation applies Bayesian shrinkage to account for parameter estimation error inherent in small sample sizes. The adjustment formula f_adjusted = f_kelly × confidence_factor + f_conservative × (1 - confidence_factor) addresses the overconfidence bias documented by Baker and McHale (2012), where the confidence factor increases with sample size and the conservative estimate equals 0.25 (quarter Kelly).
Sample Size Confidence: The reliability of Kelly calculations depends critically on sample size. Research by Browne and Whitt (1996) provides theoretical guidance on minimum sample requirements, suggesting that at least 30 independent observations are necessary for meaningful parameter estimates, with 100 or more trades providing reliable estimates for most trading strategies.
Universal Asset Compatibility: The calculator employs intelligent asset detection using TradingView's built-in symbol information, automatically adapting calculations for different asset classes without manual configuration.
ASSET SPECIFIC IMPLEMENTATION
Equity Markets: For stocks and ETFs, position sizing follows the calculation Shares = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Share Price). This straightforward approach reflects whole share constraints while accommodating fractional share trading capabilities.
Foreign Exchange Markets: Forex markets require lot-based calculations following Lot Size = Kelly Fraction × Account Size / (100,000 × Base Currency Value). The calculator automatically handles major currency pairs with appropriate pip value calculations, following industry standards described by Archer (2010).
Futures Markets: Futures position sizing accounts for leverage and margin requirements through Contracts = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Margin Requirement). The calculator estimates margin requirements as a percentage of contract notional value, with specific adjustments for micro-futures contracts that have smaller sizes and reduced margin requirements (Kaufman, 2013).
Index and Commodity Markets: These markets combine characteristics of both equity and futures markets. The calculator automatically detects whether instruments are cash-settled or futures-based, applying appropriate sizing methodologies with correct point value calculations.
Risk Management Integration
The calculator integrates sophisticated risk assessment through two primary modes:
Stop Loss Integration: When fixed stop-loss levels are defined, risk calculation follows Risk per Trade = Position Size × Stop Loss Distance. This ensures that the Kelly fraction accounts for actual risk exposure rather than theoretical maximum loss, with stop-loss distance measured in appropriate units for each asset class.
Strategy Drawdown Assessment: For discretionary exit strategies, risk estimation uses maximum historical drawdown through Risk per Trade = Position Value × (Maximum Drawdown / 100). This approach assumes that individual trade losses will not exceed the strategy's historical maximum drawdown, providing a reasonable estimate for strategies with well-defined risk characteristics.
Fractional Kelly Approaches
Pure Kelly sizing can produce substantial volatility, leading many practitioners to adopt fractional Kelly approaches. MacLean, Sanegre, Zhao, and Ziemba (2004) analyze the trade-offs between growth rate and volatility, demonstrating that half-Kelly typically reduces volatility by approximately 75% while sacrificing only 25% of the growth rate.
The calculator provides three primary Kelly modes to accommodate different risk preferences and experience levels. Full Kelly maximizes growth rate while accepting higher volatility, making it suitable for experienced practitioners with strong risk tolerance and robust capital bases. Half Kelly offers a balanced approach popular among professional traders, providing optimal risk-return balance by reducing volatility significantly while maintaining substantial growth potential. Quarter Kelly implements a conservative approach with low volatility, recommended for risk-averse traders or those new to Kelly methodology who prefer gradual introduction to optimal position sizing principles.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Extensive academic research supports the theoretical advantages of Kelly sizing. Hakansson and Ziemba (1995) provide a comprehensive review of Kelly applications in finance, documenting superior long-term performance across various market conditions and asset classes. Estrada (2008) analyzes Kelly performance in international equity markets, finding that Kelly-based strategies consistently outperform fixed position sizing approaches over extended periods across 19 developed markets over a 30-year period.
Several prominent investment firms have successfully implemented Kelly-based position sizing. Pabrai (2007) documents the application of Kelly principles at Berkshire Hathaway, noting Warren Buffett's concentrated portfolio approach aligns closely with Kelly optimal sizing for high-conviction investments. Quantitative hedge funds, including Renaissance Technologies and AQR, have incorporated Kelly-based risk management into their systematic trading strategies.
Practical Implementation Guidelines
Successful Kelly implementation requires systematic application with attention to several critical factors:
Parameter Estimation: Accurate parameter estimation represents the greatest challenge in practical Kelly implementation. Brown (1976) notes that small errors in probability estimates can lead to significant deviations from optimal performance. The calculator addresses this through Bayesian adjustments and confidence measures.
Sample Size Requirements: Users should begin with conservative fractional Kelly approaches until achieving sufficient historical data. Strategies with fewer than 30 trades may produce unreliable Kelly estimates, regardless of adjustments. Full confidence typically requires 100 or more independent trade observations.
Market Regime Considerations: Parameters that accurately describe historical performance may not reflect future market conditions. Ziemba (2003) recommends regular parameter updates and conservative adjustments when market conditions change significantly.
Professional Features and Customization
The calculator provides comprehensive customization options for professional applications:
Multiple Color Schemes: Eight professional color themes (Gold, EdgeTools, Behavioral, Quant, Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) with dark and light theme compatibility ensure optimal visibility across different trading environments.
Flexible Display Options: Adjustable table size and position accommodate various chart layouts and user preferences, while maintaining analytical depth and clarity.
Comprehensive Results: The results table presents essential information including asset specifications, strategy statistics, Kelly calculations, sample confidence measures, position values, risk assessments, and final position sizes in appropriate units for each asset class.
Limitations and Considerations
Like any analytical tool, the Kelly Criterion has important limitations that users must understand:
Stationarity Assumption: The Kelly Criterion assumes that historical strategy statistics represent future performance characteristics. Non-stationary market conditions may invalidate this assumption, as noted by Lo and MacKinlay (1999).
Independence Requirement: Each trade should be independent to avoid correlation effects. Many trading strategies exhibit serial correlation in returns, which can affect optimal position sizing and may require adjustments for portfolio applications.
Parameter Sensitivity: Kelly calculations are sensitive to parameter accuracy. Regular calibration and conservative approaches are essential when parameter uncertainty is high.
Transaction Costs: The implementation incorporates user-defined transaction costs but assumes these remain constant across different position sizes and market conditions, following Ziemba (2003).
Advanced Applications and Extensions
Multi-Asset Portfolio Considerations: While this calculator optimizes individual position sizes, portfolio-level applications require additional considerations for correlation effects and aggregate risk management. Simplified portfolio approaches include treating positions independently with correlation adjustments.
Behavioral Factors: Behavioral finance research reveals systematic biases that can interfere with Kelly implementation. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) document loss aversion, overconfidence, and other cognitive biases that lead traders to deviate from optimal strategies. Successful implementation requires disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations.
Time-Varying Parameters: Advanced implementations may incorporate time-varying parameter models that adjust Kelly recommendations based on changing market conditions, though these require sophisticated econometric techniques and substantial computational resources.
Comprehensive Usage Instructions and Practical Examples
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on your desired trading instrument's chart. The system automatically detects asset type across stocks, forex, futures, and cryptocurrency markets while extracting current price information. Navigation to the indicator settings allows input of your specific strategy parameters.
Strategy statistics configuration requires careful attention to several key metrics. The win rate should be calculated from your backtest results using the formula of winning trades divided by total trades multiplied by 100. Average win represents the sum of all profitable trades divided by the number of winning trades, while average loss calculates the sum of all losing trades divided by the number of losing trades, entered as a positive number. The total historical trades parameter requires the complete number of trades in your backtest, with a minimum of 30 trades recommended for basic functionality and 100 or more trades optimal for statistical reliability. Account size should reflect your available trading capital, specifically the risk capital allocated for trading rather than total net worth.
Risk management configuration adapts to your specific trading approach. The stop loss setting should be enabled if you employ fixed stop-loss exits, with the stop loss distance specified in appropriate units depending on the asset class. For stocks, this distance is measured in dollars, for forex in pips, and for futures in ticks. When stop losses are not used, the maximum strategy drawdown percentage from your backtest provides the risk assessment baseline. Kelly mode selection offers three primary approaches: Full Kelly for aggressive growth with higher volatility suitable for experienced practitioners, Half Kelly for balanced risk-return optimization popular among professional traders, and Quarter Kelly for conservative approaches with reduced volatility.
Display customization ensures optimal integration with your trading environment. Eight professional color themes provide optimization for different chart backgrounds and personal preferences. Table position selection allows optimal placement within your chart layout, while table size adjustment ensures readability across different screen resolutions and viewing preferences.
Detailed Practical Examples
Example 1: SPY Swing Trading Strategy
Consider a professionally developed swing trading strategy for SPY (S&P 500 ETF) with backtesting results spanning 166 total trades. The strategy achieved 110 winning trades, representing a 66.3% win rate, with an average winning trade of $2,200 and average losing trade of $862. The maximum drawdown reached 31.4% during the testing period, and the available trading capital amounts to $25,000. This strategy employs discretionary exits without fixed stop losses.
Implementation requires loading the calculator on the SPY daily chart and configuring the parameters accordingly. The win rate input receives 66.3, while average win and loss inputs receive 2200 and 862 respectively. Total historical trades input requires 166, with account size set to 25000. The stop loss function remains disabled due to the discretionary exit approach, with maximum strategy drawdown set to 31.4%. Half Kelly mode provides the optimal balance between growth and risk management for this application.
The calculator generates several key outputs for this scenario. The risk-reward ratio calculates automatically to 2.55, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 53% before scientific adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 166 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 27% after Half Kelly and Bayesian adjustment factors. Position value reaches approximately $6,750, translating to 16 shares at a $420 SPY price. Risk per trade amounts to approximately $2,110, representing 31.4% of position value, with expected value per trade reaching approximately $1,466. This recommendation represents the mathematically optimal balance between growth potential and risk management for this specific strategy profile.
Example 2: EURUSD Day Trading with Stop Losses
A high-frequency EURUSD day trading strategy demonstrates different parameter requirements compared to swing trading approaches. This strategy encompasses 89 total trades with a 58% win rate, generating an average winning trade of $180 and average losing trade of $95. The maximum drawdown reached 12% during testing, with available capital of $10,000. The strategy employs fixed stop losses at 25 pips and take profit targets at 45 pips, providing clear risk-reward parameters.
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on the EURUSD 1-hour chart for appropriate timeframe alignment. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 58, average win at 180, and average loss at 95. Total historical trades input receives 89, with account size set to 10000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 25 pips, reflecting the fixed exit strategy. Quarter Kelly mode provides conservative positioning due to the smaller sample size compared to the previous example.
Results demonstrate the impact of smaller sample sizes on Kelly calculations. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 1.89, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 32% before adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 89%, providing moderate statistical confidence given the 89 trades. The recommended position settles at approximately 7% after Quarter Kelly application and Bayesian shrinkage adjustment for the smaller sample. Position value amounts to approximately $700, translating to 0.07 standard lots. Risk per trade reaches approximately $175, calculated as 25 pips multiplied by lot size and pip value, with expected value per trade at approximately $49. This conservative position sizing reflects the smaller sample size, with position sizes expected to increase as trade count surpasses 100 and statistical confidence improves.
Example 3: ES1! Futures Systematic Strategy
Systematic futures trading presents unique considerations for Kelly criterion application, as demonstrated by an E-mini S&P 500 futures strategy encompassing 234 total trades. This systematic approach achieved a 45% win rate with an average winning trade of $1,850 and average losing trade of $720. The maximum drawdown reached 18% during the testing period, with available capital of $50,000. The strategy employs 15-tick stop losses with contract specifications of $50 per tick, providing precise risk control mechanisms.
Implementation involves loading the calculator on the ES1! 15-minute chart to align with the systematic trading timeframe. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 45, average win at 1850, and average loss at 720. Total historical trades receives 234, providing robust statistical foundation, with account size set to 50000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 15 ticks, reflecting the systematic exit methodology. Half Kelly mode balances growth potential with appropriate risk management for futures trading.
Results illustrate how favorable risk-reward ratios can support meaningful position sizing despite lower win rates. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 2.57, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 16%, lower than previous examples due to the sub-50% win rate. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 234 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 8% after Half Kelly adjustment. Estimated margin per contract amounts to approximately $2,500, resulting in a single contract allocation. Position value reaches approximately $2,500, with risk per trade at $750, calculated as 15 ticks multiplied by $50 per tick. Expected value per trade amounts to approximately $508. Despite the lower win rate, the favorable risk-reward ratio supports meaningful position sizing, with single contract allocation reflecting appropriate leverage management for futures trading.
Example 4: MES1! Micro-Futures for Smaller Accounts
Micro-futures contracts provide enhanced accessibility for smaller trading accounts while maintaining identical strategy characteristics. Using the same systematic strategy statistics from the previous example but with available capital of $15,000 and micro-futures specifications of $5 per tick with reduced margin requirements, the implementation demonstrates improved position sizing granularity.
Kelly calculations remain identical to the full-sized contract example, maintaining the same risk-reward dynamics and statistical foundations. However, estimated margin per contract reduces to approximately $250 for micro-contracts, enabling allocation of 4-5 micro-contracts. Position value reaches approximately $1,200, while risk per trade calculates to $75, derived from 15 ticks multiplied by $5 per tick. This granularity advantage provides better position size precision for smaller accounts, enabling more accurate Kelly implementation without requiring large capital commitments.
Example 5: Bitcoin Swing Trading
Cryptocurrency markets present unique challenges requiring modified Kelly application approaches. A Bitcoin swing trading strategy on BTCUSD encompasses 67 total trades with a 71% win rate, generating average winning trades of $3,200 and average losing trades of $1,400. Maximum drawdown reached 28% during testing, with available capital of $30,000. The strategy employs technical analysis for exits without fixed stop losses, relying on price action and momentum indicators.
Implementation requires conservative approaches due to cryptocurrency volatility characteristics. Quarter Kelly mode is recommended despite the high win rate to account for crypto market unpredictability. Expected position sizing remains reduced due to the limited sample size of 67 trades, requiring additional caution until statistical confidence improves. Regular parameter updates are strongly recommended due to cryptocurrency market evolution and changing volatility patterns that can significantly impact strategy performance characteristics.
Advanced Usage Scenarios
Portfolio position sizing requires sophisticated consideration when running multiple strategies simultaneously. Each strategy should have its Kelly fraction calculated independently to maintain mathematical integrity. However, correlation adjustments become necessary when strategies exhibit related performance patterns. Moderately correlated strategies should receive individual position size reductions of 10-20% to account for overlapping risk exposure. Aggregate portfolio risk monitoring ensures total exposure remains within acceptable limits across all active strategies. Professional practitioners often consider using lower fractional Kelly approaches, such as Quarter Kelly, when running multiple strategies simultaneously to provide additional safety margins.
Parameter sensitivity analysis forms a critical component of professional Kelly implementation. Regular validation procedures should include monthly parameter updates using rolling 100-trade windows to capture evolving market conditions while maintaining statistical relevance. Sensitivity testing involves varying win rates by ±5% and average win/loss ratios by ±10% to assess recommendation stability under different parameter assumptions. Out-of-sample validation reserves 20% of historical data for parameter verification, ensuring that optimization doesn't create curve-fitted results. Regime change detection monitors actual performance against expected metrics, triggering parameter reassessment when significant deviations occur.
Risk management integration requires professional overlay considerations beyond pure Kelly calculations. Daily loss limits should cease trading when daily losses exceed twice the calculated risk per trade, preventing emotional decision-making during adverse periods. Maximum position limits should never exceed 25% of account value in any single position regardless of Kelly recommendations, maintaining diversification principles. Correlation monitoring reduces position sizes when holding multiple correlated positions that move together during market stress. Volatility adjustments consider reducing position sizes during periods of elevated VIX above 25 for equity strategies, adapting to changing market conditions.
Troubleshooting and Optimization
Professional implementation often encounters specific challenges requiring systematic troubleshooting approaches. Zero position size displays typically result from insufficient capital for minimum position sizes, negative expected values, or extremely conservative Kelly calculations. Solutions include increasing account size, verifying strategy statistics for accuracy, considering Quarter Kelly mode for conservative approaches, or reassessing overall strategy viability when fundamental issues exist.
Extremely high Kelly fractions exceeding 50% usually indicate underlying problems with parameter estimation. Common causes include unrealistic win rates, inflated risk-reward ratios, or curve-fitted backtest results that don't reflect genuine trading conditions. Solutions require verifying backtest methodology, including all transaction costs in calculations, testing strategies on out-of-sample data, and using conservative fractional Kelly approaches until parameter reliability improves.
Low sample confidence below 50% reflects insufficient historical trades for reliable parameter estimation. This situation demands gathering additional trading data, using Quarter Kelly approaches until reaching 100 or more trades, applying extra conservatism in position sizing, and considering paper trading to build statistical foundations without capital risk.
Inconsistent results across similar strategies often stem from parameter estimation differences, market regime changes, or strategy degradation over time. Professional solutions include standardizing backtest methodology across all strategies, updating parameters regularly to reflect current conditions, and monitoring live performance against expectations to identify deteriorating strategies.
Position sizes that appear inappropriately large or small require careful validation against traditional risk management principles. Professional standards recommend never risking more than 2-3% per trade regardless of Kelly calculations. Calibration should begin with Quarter Kelly approaches, gradually increasing as comfort and confidence develop. Most institutional traders utilize 25-50% of full Kelly recommendations to balance growth with prudent risk management.
Market condition adjustments require dynamic approaches to Kelly implementation. Trending markets may support full Kelly recommendations when directional momentum provides favorable conditions. Ranging or volatile markets typically warrant reducing to Half or Quarter Kelly to account for increased uncertainty. High correlation periods demand reducing individual position sizes when multiple positions move together, concentrating risk exposure. News and event periods often justify temporary position size reductions during high-impact releases that can create unpredictable market movements.
Performance monitoring requires systematic protocols to ensure Kelly implementation remains effective over time. Weekly reviews should compare actual versus expected win rates and average win/loss ratios to identify parameter drift or strategy degradation. Position size efficiency and execution quality monitoring ensures that calculated recommendations translate effectively into actual trading results. Tracking correlation between calculated and realized risk helps identify discrepancies between theoretical and practical risk exposure.
Monthly calibration provides more comprehensive parameter assessment using the most recent 100 trades to maintain statistical relevance while capturing current market conditions. Kelly mode appropriateness requires reassessment based on recent market volatility and performance characteristics, potentially shifting between Full, Half, and Quarter Kelly approaches as conditions change. Transaction cost evaluation ensures that commission structures, spreads, and slippage estimates remain accurate and current.
Quarterly strategic reviews encompass comprehensive strategy performance analysis comparing long-term results against expectations and identifying trends in effectiveness. Market regime assessment evaluates parameter stability across different market conditions, determining whether strategy characteristics remain consistent or require fundamental adjustments. Strategic modifications to position sizing methodology may become necessary as markets evolve or trading approaches mature, ensuring that Kelly implementation continues supporting optimal capital allocation objectives.
Professional Applications
This calculator serves diverse professional applications across the financial industry. Quantitative hedge funds utilize the implementation for systematic position sizing within algorithmic trading frameworks, where mathematical precision and consistent application prove essential for institutional capital management. Professional discretionary traders benefit from optimized position management that removes emotional bias while maintaining flexibility for market-specific adjustments. Portfolio managers employ the calculator for developing risk-adjusted allocation strategies that enhance returns while maintaining prudent risk controls across diverse asset classes and investment strategies.
Individual traders seeking mathematical optimization of capital allocation find the calculator provides institutional-grade methodology previously available only to professional money managers. The Kelly Criterion establishes theoretical foundation for optimal capital allocation across both single strategies and multiple trading systems, offering significant advantages over arbitrary position sizing methods that rely on intuition or fixed percentage approaches. Professional implementation ensures consistent application of mathematically sound principles while adapting to changing market conditions and strategy performance characteristics.
Conclusion
The Kelly Criterion represents one of the few mathematically optimal solutions to fundamental investment problems. When properly understood and carefully implemented, it provides significant competitive advantage in financial markets. This calculator implements modern refinements to Kelly's original formula while maintaining accessibility for practical trading applications.
Success with Kelly requires ongoing learning, systematic application, and continuous refinement based on market feedback and evolving research. Users who master Kelly principles and implement them systematically can expect superior risk-adjusted returns and more consistent capital growth over extended periods.
The extensive academic literature provides rich resources for deeper study, while practical experience builds the intuition necessary for effective implementation. Regular parameter updates, conservative approaches with limited data, and disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations are essential for optimal results.
References
Archer, M. D. (2010). Getting Started in Currency Trading: Winning in Today's Forex Market (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2012). An empirical Bayes approach to optimising betting strategies. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 61(1), 75-92.
Breiman, L. (1961). Optimal gambling systems for favorable games. In J. Neyman (Ed.), Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability (pp. 65-78). University of California Press.
Brown, D. B. (1976). Optimal portfolio growth: Logarithmic utility and the Kelly criterion. In W. T. Ziemba & R. G. Vickson (Eds.), Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance (pp. 1-23). Academic Press.
Browne, S., & Whitt, W. (1996). Portfolio choice and the Bayesian Kelly criterion. Advances in Applied Probability, 28(4), 1145-1176.
Estrada, J. (2008). Geometric mean maximization: An overlooked portfolio approach? The Journal of Investing, 17(4), 134-147.
Hakansson, N. H., & Ziemba, W. T. (1995). Capital growth theory. In R. A. Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science (Vol. 9, pp. 65-86). Elsevier.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Kaufman, P. J. (2013). Trading Systems and Methods (5th ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Kelly Jr, J. L. (1956). A new interpretation of information rate. Bell System Technical Journal, 35(4), 917-926.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton University Press.
MacLean, L. C., Sanegre, E. O., Zhao, Y., & Ziemba, W. T. (2004). Capital growth with security. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 28(4), 937-954.
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Michaud, R. O. (1989). The Markowitz optimization enigma: Is 'optimized' optimal? Financial Analysts Journal, 45(1), 31-42.
Pabrai, M. (2007). The Dhandho Investor: The Low-Risk Value Method to High Returns. John Wiley & Sons.
Shannon, C. E. (1948). A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379-423.
Tharp, V. K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill.
Thorp, E. O. (2006). The Kelly criterion in blackjack sports betting, and the stock market. In L. C. MacLean, E. O. Thorp, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice (pp. 789-832). World Scientific.
Van Tharp, K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Vince, R., & Zhu, H. (2015). Optimal betting under parameter uncertainty. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 161, 19-31.
Ziemba, W. T. (2003). The Stochastic Programming Approach to Asset, Liability, and Wealth Management. The Research Foundation of AIMR.
Further Reading
For comprehensive understanding of Kelly Criterion applications and advanced implementations:
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Thorp, E. O. (2017). A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street. Random House.
Cover, T. M., & Thomas, J. A. (2006). Elements of Information Theory (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Ziemba, W. T., & Vickson, R. G. (Eds.). (2006). Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance. World Scientific.
Defense Mode Dashboard ProWhat it is
A one‑look market regime dashboard for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, and SPY that tells you when to play defense, when you might have an offense cue, and when to chill. It blends VIX, VIX term structure, ATR 5 over 60, and session gap signals with clean alerts and a compact table you can park anywhere.
Why traders like it
Because it filters out the noise. Regime first, tactics second. You avoid trading size into landmines and lean in when volatility cooperates.
What it measures
Volatility stress with VIX level and VIX vs 20‑SMA
Term structure using VX1 vs VX2 with two modes
Diff mode: VX1 minus VX2
Ratio mode: VX1 divided by VX2
Realized volatility using ATR5 over ATR60 with optional smoothing
Session risk from RTH opening gaps and overnight range, normalized by ATR
How to use in 30 seconds
Pick a preset in the inputs. ES, NQ, YM, RTY, SPY are ready.
Leave thresholds at defaults to start.
Add one TradingView alert using “Any alert() function call”.
Trade smaller or stand aside when the header reads DEFENSE ON. Consider leaning in only when you see OFFENSE CUE and your playbook agrees.
Defaults we recommend
VIX triggers: 22 and 1.25× the 20‑SMA
Term mode: Diff with tolerance 0.00. Use Ratio at 1.00+ for choppier markets
ATR 5/60 defense: 1.25. Offense cue: 0.85 or lower
ATR smoothing: 1. Try 2 to 3 if you want fewer flips
Gap mode: RTH. Turn Both on if you want ON range to count too
RTH wild gap: 0.60× ATR5. ON wild range: 0.80× ATR5
Alert cadence: Once per RTH session
Snooze: Quick snooze first 30 minutes on. Fire on snooze exit off, unless you really want the catch‑up ping
New since the last description
Multi‑asset presets set symbols and RTH windows for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, SPY
Term ratio mode with near‑flat warning when ratio is between 1.00 and your trigger
ATR smoothing for the 5 over 60 ratio
RTH keying for cadence, so “Once per RTH session” behaves like a trader expects
Snooze upgrades with quick snooze tied to the first N minutes of RTH and an optional fire‑on‑snooze‑exit
Compact title merge and user color controls for labels, values, borders, and background
Exposed series for integrations: DefenseOn(1=yes) and OffenseCue(1=yes)
Debug toggle to visualize gap points, ON range, and term readings
Stronger NA handling with a clear “No core data” row when feeds are missing
Notes
Dynamic alerts require “Any alert() function call”.
Works on any chart timeframe. Daily reads and 1‑minute anchors handle the regime logic.
Period Highlighter ProPeriod Highlighter Pro is a versatile Pine Script indicator designed to visually highlight specific time periods on your TradingView charts, making it easier to analyze seasonal patterns, trading sessions, or specific weekdays. With customizable settings for months, weekdays, or intraday time ranges, this tool adapts to your trading strategy, allowing you to focus on key periods with precision.
Features
Flexible Highlight Modes: Choose from three modes to highlight:
Month Range: Highlight specific months or a range (e.g., March to June) for seasonal analysis.
Weekday Range: Highlight specific weekdays (e.g., Mondays or Monday to Wednesday) for weekly pattern analysis.
Time Range: Highlight daily time windows (e.g., 15:30–22:00) for intraday session analysis, restricted to weekdays.
Customizable Timezone: Set any IANA timezone (e.g., America/New_York, Europe/London) or UTC offset to align highlights with your preferred market hours.
Historical Range Control: Define how far back to apply highlights with options for years (Month Range), weeks (Weekday Range), or days (Time Range).
Visual Customization: Choose your highlight color to match your chart style.
User-Friendly Inputs: Intuitive dropdowns and tooltips guide you through configuring each mode, ensuring only relevant settings are adjusted.
How It Works
Select a highlight mode and configure the corresponding settings:
Month Range: Pick a start month and an optional end month (or "Disabled" for a single month) and set the number of years back.
Weekday Range: Choose a start weekday and an optional end weekday (or "Disabled" for a single day) and set the number of weeks back.
Time Range: Specify a start and end time (24-hour format) and the number of weekdays back. The indicator then applies a semi-transparent background color to chart bars that meet your criteria, making it easy to spot relevant periods.
Use Cases
Seasonal Traders: Highlight specific months to analyze recurring market patterns.
Day Traders: Focus on active trading sessions (e.g., New York open) with precise time range highlighting.
Weekly Pattern Analysts: Isolate specific weekdays to study price behavior.
Global Traders: Adjust for any timezone to align with your market of interest.
Why Use Period Highlighter Pro?
This indicator simplifies time-based analysis by providing a clear visual overlay for your chosen periods. Whether you're studying historical trends or focusing on specific trading hours, Period Highlighter Pro offers the flexibility and precision to enhance your chart analysis.
Licensed under the Mozilla Public License 2.0.
GTrader-ICT All In One-Comumnity VersionMeet the **GTrader-ICT All In One **, a comprehensive toolkit designed to integrate key Inner Circle Trader (ICT) concepts directly onto your chart. This powerful overlay indicator consolidates multiple essential tools, streamlining your technical analysis and helping you identify key temporal and price-based events.
📚 References & Inspiration
This indicator stands on the shoulders of giants. With the help of **tradeforopp** and **LuxAlgo**. The concepts and some implementation details were referenced from the following excellent, publicly available scripts:
ICT Killzones: The session drawing and pivot logic is adapted from tradeforopp
ICT Macros: The macro detection and plotting functionality is inspired by the work of Lux Algo , particularly their widely-used indicators covering ICT concepts.
🎯 Core Features
* **ICT Killzones:** Visualize critical trading sessions with customizable boxes. You can easily toggle and style the **Asia**, **London**, and **New York (AM, Lunch, PM)** sessions to focus on the liquidity and volatility that matter most to your strategy.
* Fully customizable session times and colors.
* Timezone support to align sessions with your local or preferred trading time (defaults to `America/New_York`).
* **ICT Macros:** Automatically identify and plot specific, short-duration time windows where institutional algorithms are known to be active (e.g., `09:50-10:10`, `14:50-15:10`, etc.).
* Plots the high/low range of the macro, providing clear levels of interest.
* Utilizes 1-minute data for precision, even when viewing on 3-minute or 5-minute charts.
📚 Optimization over the other original indicators
We add the custom input for macros session, users just need to input the from/to hour: minute format, and they will be converted into session objects in pinescript
The macro draws function is optimized, removing redundant draws, leading to better performance
Add "Distance from Macro Line to Chart" option
Add "Session Drawings Limit" for better performance
⚠️ Notes on TradingView Warnings
You may encounter some warnings from TradingView when using this script. These are generally expected due to the script's advanced, event-driven nature:
1. **Function Call Consistency:** The function 'box.new' should be called on each calculation for consistency, which may appear. This happens because drawing elements (like session boxes) are intentionally created only on the *first bar* of a new session, not on every single bar. This is a necessary design choice for performance and to prevent duplicate drawings.
2. **Potential for Repainting/Slow Load:** The **Macro** feature uses the `request.security_lower_tf()` function to get accurate 1-minute data. This can trigger warnings about performance or slow loading times. This is a known trade-off for achieving the precision required for the feature.
Silver BulletSilver Bullet is a trading tool built for finding cleaner, higher-probability setups. It focuses on key windows of market movement and adds helpful tools like daily range levels and candlestick patterns.
Whether you’re trading breakouts or reversals, Silver Bullet gives you a clearer view of the market and more confidence in your setups.
⸻
🔹 Trading Setup #1: Macro Time
The Macro Time setting offers two modes: Macro Bullet and Silver Bullet. Both help traders focus on specific times when the market tends to deliver clean moves.
• Macro Bullet is based on the high and low of a full macro session. It automatically detects the session’s range and bias, then offers optimal entries for either Long or Short setups. Once the session resolves, it provides Fibonacci-based levels for entry, target, and stop loss.
• Silver Bullet is based on ICT concepts and focuses on the hourly range for London, NY AM, and NY PM sessions. It’s designed for quick time blocks and highlights key levels as the session unfolds.
To use this setup, set Macro Time to “ICT Sessions” and select your preferred mode under Bullet Mode.
⸻
🔹 Trading Setup #2: Daily Range
Enable Daily Range to draw Fibonacci levels based on either the previous day’s candle or the current day’s developing range. These levels help you identify potential support, resistance, and midpoint zones throughout the day.
With the current day’s range, levels automatically update in real time as new highs or lows form — keeping your chart aligned with evolving price action.
⸻
🔹 Trading Setup #3: Candlestick Patterns
Turn on Candlestick Patterns to automatically highlight clean reversal signals such as Hammers, Hanging Men, Shooting Stars, and Tweezers. Each pattern is detected using specific criteria and trend filters to reduce noise and improve reliability. They work especially well as confirmation signals around key levels or session zones.
Silver Bullet brings structure, clarity, and precision to your intraday trading. By combining time-based bias, price action levels, and pattern recognition, it helps you trade with purpose — not guesswork. Use one setup or combine all three for a complete view of the market, tailored to your style and session of choice.
Strategy Chameleon [theUltimator5]Have you ever looked at an indicator and wondered to yourself "Is this indicator actually profitable?" Well now you can test it out for yourself with the Strategy Chameleon!
Strategy Chameleon is a versatile, signal-agnostic trading strategy designed to adapt to any external indicator or trading system. Like a chameleon changes colors to match its environment, this strategy adapts to match any buy/sell signals you provide, making it the ultimate backtesting and automation tool for traders who want to test multiple strategies without rewriting code.
🎯 Key Features
1) Connects ANY external indicator's buy/sell signals
Works with RSI, MACD, moving averages, custom indicators, or any Pine Script output
Simply connect your indicator's signal output to the strategy inputs
2) Multiple Stop Loss Types:
Percentage-based stops
ATR (Average True Range) dynamic stops
Fixed point stops
3) Advanced Trailing Stop System:
Percentage trailing
ATR-based trailing
Fixed point trailing
4) Flexible Take Profit Options:
Risk:Reward ratio targeting
Percentage-based profits
ATR-based profits
Fixed point profits
5) Trading Direction Control
Long Only - Bull market strategies
Short Only - Bear market strategies
Both - Full market strategies
6) Time-Based Filtering
Optional trading session restrictions
Customize active trading hours
Perfect for day trading strategies
📈 How It Works
Signal Detection: The strategy monitors your connected buy/sell signals
Entry Logic: Executes trades when signals trigger during valid time periods
Risk Management: Automatically applies your chosen stop loss and take profit levels
Trailing System: Dynamically adjusts stops to lock in profits
Performance Tracking: Real-time statistics table showing win rate and performance
⚙️ Setup Instructions
0) Add indicator you want to test, then add the Strategy to your chart
Connect Your Signals:
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Go to strategy settings → Signal Sources
1) Set "Buy Signal Source" to your indicator's buy output
2) Set "Sell Signal Source" to your indicator's sell output
3) Choose table position - This simply changes the table location on the screen
4) Set trading direction preference - Buy only? Sell only? Both directions?
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5) Set your preferred stop loss type and level
You can set the stop loss to be either percentage based or ATR and fully configurable.
6) Enable trailing stops if desired
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7) Configure take profit settings
8) Toggle time filter to only consider specific time windows or trading sessions.
🚀 Use Cases
Test various indicators to determine feasibility and/or profitability.
Compare different signal sources quickly
Validate trading ideas with consistent risk management
Portfolio Management
Apply uniform risk management across different strategies
Standardize stop loss and take profit rules
Monitor performance consistently
Automation Ready
Built-in alert conditions for automated trading
Compatible with trading bots and webhooks
Easy integration with external systems
⚠️ Important Notes
This strategy requires external signals to function
Default settings use 10% of equity per trade
Pyramiding is disabled (one position at a time)
Strategy calculates on bar close, not every tick
🔗 Integration Examples
Works perfectly with:
RSI strategies (connect RSI > 70 for sells, RSI < 30 for buys)
Moving average crossovers
MACD signal line crosses
Bollinger Band strategies
Custom oscillators and indicators
Multi-timeframe strategies
📋 Default Settings
Position Size: 10% of equity
Stop Loss: 2% percentage-based
Trailing Stop: 1.5% percentage-based (enabled)
Take Profit: Disabled (optional)
Trade Direction: Both long and short
Time Filter: Disabled
Institutional Sessions Overlay (Asia/London/NY)Institutional Sessions Overlay is a professional TradingView indicator that visually highlights the main trading sessions (Asia, London, and New York) directly on your chart.
Customizable: Easily adjust session start and end times (including minutes) for each market.
Timezone Alignment: Shift session boxes using the timezone offset parameter so sessions match your chart’s timezone exactly.
Clear Visuals: Colored boxes and optional labels display session opens and closes for fast institutional market structure reference.
Toggle Labels: Show or hide session open/close labels with a single click for a clean or detailed look.
Intuitive UI: User-friendly grouped settings for efficient configuration.
This tool is designed for day traders, institutional traders, and anyone who wants to instantly recognize global session timing and ranges for SMC, ICT, and other session-based strategies.
How to use:
Set your chart to your local timezone.
Use the "Session timezone offset" setting if session boxes do not match actual session opens on your chart.
Adjust the hours and minutes for each session as needed.
Enable or disable labels in the “Display” settings group.
Tip: Use the overlay to spot session highs and lows, volatility windows, and institutional liquidity sweeps.
Gold Power Hours Strategy📈 Gold Power Hours Trading Strategy
Trade XAUUSD (Gold) or XAUEUR during the most volatile hours of the New York session, using momentum and trend confirmation, with session-specific risk/reward profiles.
✅ Strategy Rules
🕒 Valid Trading Times ("Power Hours"):
Trades are only taken during high-probability time windows on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays , corresponding to key New York session activity:
Morning Session:
08:00 – 11:00 (NY time)
Afternoon Session:
12:30 – 16:00
19:00 – 22:00
These times align with institutional activity and economic news releases.
📊 Technical Indicators Used:
50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA50):
Identifies the dominant market trend.
14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI):
Measures market momentum with session-adjusted thresholds.
🟩 Buy Signal Criteria:
Price is above the 50-period SMA (bullish trend)
RSI is greater than:
60 during Morning Session
55 during Afternoon Session
Must be during a valid day (Tue–Thu) and Power Hour session
🟥 Sell Signal Criteria:
Price is below the 50-period SMA (bearish trend)
RSI is less than:
40 during Morning Session
45 during Afternoon Session
Must be during a valid day and Power Hour session
🎯 Trade Management Rules:
Morning Session (08:00–11:00)
Stop Loss (SL): 50 pips
Take Profit (TP): 150 pips
Risk–Reward Ratio: 1:3
Afternoon Session (12:30–16:00 & 19:00–22:00)
Stop Loss (SL): 50 pips
Take Profit (TP): up to 100 pips
Risk–Reward Ratio: up to 1:2
⚠️ TP is slightly reduced in the afternoon due to typically lower volatility compared to the morning session.
📺 Visuals & Alerts:
Buy signals: Green triangle plotted below the bar
Sell signals: Red triangle plotted above the bar
SMA50 line: Orange
Valid session background: Light pink
Alerts: Automatic alerts for buy/sell signals
Custom Daily Session Zones by KoenigseggCustom Daily Session Zones
🟣 Description
This indicator displays customizable trading session time zones as background highlights on your chart, on any timeframe you choose. The inline info tooltip provides the precise start and end times of the three largest market sessions—the US, the EU, and ASIA—for quick reference. It provides flexible control over session times for different days of the week, making it ideal for traders who need to visualize specific market hours or trading sessions.
🟣 Key Features
- Flexible Session Configuration: Set a common session time for all days or customize individual sessions for each day of the week
- Per-Day Control: Enable or disable sessions for specific days (Monday through Sunday)
- Color Customization: Choose unique colors for each day's session zones
- UTC Timezone Standard: All session times are defined in UTC to ensure consistency across charts
- Clean Visual Display: Non-intrusive background highlighting that doesn't interfere with price action
🟣 How to Use
- Common Session Mode: Use the default mode to apply the same session time across all enabled days
- Manual Per-Day Mode: Enable "Manual per-day sessions" to set different session times for each day
- Day Selection: Toggle individual days on/off based on your trading schedule
- Color Coding: Customize colors for each day to easily distinguish between different sessions
🟣 Technical Details
- Uses Pine Script v6 for optimal performance
- Implements proper session time detection using TradingView's built-in time functions
- Operates in UTC timezone for all session calculations
- Lightweight code that doesn't impact chart performance
🟣 Use Cases
- Highlight specific trading sessions (London, New York, Tokyo, etc.)
- Mark important market hours for your trading strategy
- Visualize different session overlaps
- Create custom trading time windows
- Track market activity during specific hours
🟣 Compatibility
- Works on all timeframes
- Compatible with all asset classes (Forex, Stocks, Crypto, Futures, etc.)
- Supports all TradingView chart types
- Responsive design that adapts to different screen sizes
🟣 Image Descriptions
- First Image (main image): Shows multiple New York Stock Exchange sessions from 1:30 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. (UTC), on the 15-minute timeframe, with each day’s zone colored differently to demonstrate the indicator’s customizable color settings.
- Second Image: A zoomed‑in fractal chart view of the same New York session on the 15-minute timeframe, illustrating how the background session zone appears even at higher detail levels.
Third Image: A close‑up of the New York session (1:30 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.) on the 3-minute timeframe, reaffirming the consistency of zone highlighting across different zoom levels.
🟣 Future Updates (v2)
In the next release, you’ll be able to define multiple session blocks per day—displaying two distinct colored zones within the same trading day. This will help you visualize when one market session ends and another begins without losing chart clarity.
🟣 Conclusion
This indicator is perfect for traders who need precise control over Market Session visualization and want to maintain a clean, professional chart appearance.
🟣 Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational and illustrative purposes only. It is not financial or trading advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Always conduct your own research and consult a professional before making any trading decisions.
Candles by Day, Time, Month + StatsThis Pine Script allows you to filter and display candles based on:
📅 Specific days of the week
🕒 Custom intraday time ranges (e.g., 9:15 to 10:30)
📆 Selected months
📊 Shows stats for each filtered block:
🔼 Range (High – Low)
📏 Average candle body size
⚙️ Key Features:
✅ Filter by day, time, and month
🎛 Toggle to show/hide the stats label
🟩 Candles are drawn only for selected conditions
📍 Stats label is positioned above session high (adjustable)
⚠️ Important Setup Instructions:
✅ 1. Use it on a blank chart
To avoid overlaying with default candles:
Open the chart of your preferred symbol
Click on the chart type (top toolbar: "Candles", "Bars", etc.)
Select "Blank" from the dropdown (this will hide all native candles)
Apply this indicator
This ensures only the filtered candles from the script are visible.
Adjust for your local timezone
This script uses a hardcoded timezone: "Asia/Kolkata"
If you are in a different timezone, change it to your own (e.g. "America/New_York", "Europe/London", etc.) in all instances of:
time(timeframe.period, "Asia/Kolkata")
timestamp("Asia/Kolkata", ...)
Use Cases:
Opening range behavior on specific weekdays/months
Detecting market anomalies during exact windows
Building visual logs of preferred trade hours
OPR Asia-New-York [Elykia]This Pine Script indicator, called "OPR Asia-New-York ", displays time-based boxes corresponding to two specific trading periods known as OPR (Opening Price Range):
🎯 Purpose of the Indicator:
To visualize two key market time windows (morning and afternoon) as extended boxes, helping with technical analysis around opening ranges.
🕒 Two sessions displayed as boxes:
🔹 Morning OPR:
Default: from 09:00 to 09:15 (configurable)
The box extends until 10:30.
It captures the highest and lowest candle within this interval.
🔸 Afternoon OPR:
Default: from 15:30 to 15:45
The box extends until 17:30.
Follows the same logic as the morning session.
⚙️ Dashboard Options:
Enable or disable the morning or afternoon box individually
Select the timezone (e.g., GMT+2)
Customize all colors (morning/afternoon boxes, median line)
Set your own start/end/extension times for each session
📦 Each box includes:
A colored rectangle showing the price range (high/low)
A dotted median line between the high and low
The box and line extend until the end time defined
🧠 Usefulness for Traders:
Identify liquidity zones or consolidation areas
Trade setups like liquidity grabs, breakouts, or fakeouts around the OPR
Align with ICT methods or scalping strategies based on session behavior
Simple Sessions & LevelsWhat this indicator does:
This script marks out two essential types of price levels for intraday and swing traders:
The high and low of a customizable 15-minute opening range after the market/session open.
The previous day’s high, midpoint (“halfback”), and low.
How it works:
The script lets you set the session start time (hour and minute) to match your market.
It then calculates the high and low of the first 15 minutes after the session opens and plots those as solid lines.
It also plots the prior day’s high, halfback (midpoint), and low on your chart for easy reference.
Each line and each label can be toggled on or off independently in the settings for maximum customization.
Colors for each level are also fully customizable.
How to use it:
Add the script to your chart.
Set the session start hour and minute to match the open of the market or instrument you trade.
Choose which levels and labels you want displayed by using the toggles in the settings.
The indicator will automatically draw the session range and prior day levels for you.
Use these lines as reference for key support, resistance, and potential trade entry/exit points.
What makes it unique and useful:
This tool combines a flexible session opening range with classic daily reference levels in one package. You have complete control over which levels and labels are shown, making it adaptable for any trading style. It’s especially useful for day traders who want to quickly identify volatility windows and the most important price levels from the previous session.
Rolling VWAP LevelsRolling VWAP Levels Indicator
Overview
Dynamic horizontal lines showing rolling Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) levels for multiple timeframes (7D, 30D, 90D, 365D) that update in real-time as new bars form.
Who This Is For
Day traders using VWAP as support/resistance
Swing traders analyzing multi-timeframe price structure
Scalpers looking for mean reversion entries
Options traders needing volatility bands for strike selection
Institutional traders tracking volume-weighted fair value
Risk managers requiring dynamic stop levels
How To Trade With It
Mean Reversion Strategies:
Buy when price is below VWAP and showing bullish divergence
Sell when price is above VWAP and showing bearish signals
Use multiple timeframes - enter on shorter, confirm on longer
Target opposite VWAP level for profit taking
Breakout Trading:
Watch for price breaking above/below key VWAP levels with volume
Use 7D VWAP for intraday breakouts
Use 30D/90D VWAP for swing trade breakouts
Confirm breakout with move beyond first standard deviation band
Support/Resistance Trading:
VWAP levels act as dynamic support in uptrends
VWAP levels act as dynamic resistance in downtrends
Multiple timeframe VWAP confluence creates stronger levels
Use standard deviation bands as additional S/R zones
Risk Management:
Place stops beyond next VWAP level
Use standard deviation bands for position sizing
Exit partial positions at VWAP levels
Monitor distance table for overextended moves
Key Features
Real-time Updates: Lines move and extend as new bars form
Individual Styling: Custom colors, widths, styles for each timeframe
Standard Deviation Bands: Optional volatility bands with custom multipliers
Smart Labels: Positioned above, below, or diagonally relative to lines
Distance Table: Shows percentage distance from each VWAP level
Alert System: Get notified when price crosses VWAP levels
Memory Efficient: Automatically cleans up old drawing objects
Settings Explained
Display Group: Show/hide labels, font size, line transparency, positioning
Individual VWAP Groups: Color, line width (1-5), line style for each timeframe
Standard Deviation Bands: Enable bands with custom multipliers (0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, etc.)
Labels Group: Position (8 options including diagonal), custom text, price display
Additional Info: Distance table, alert conditions
Technical Implementation
Uses rolling arrays to maintain sliding windows of price*volume data. The core calculation function processes both VWAP and standard deviation efficiently. Lines are created dynamically and updated every bar. Memory management prevents object accumulation through automatic cleanup.
Best Practices
Start with 7D and 30D VWAP for most strategies
Add 90D/365D for longer-term context
Use standard deviation bands when volatility matters
Position labels to avoid chart clutter
Enable distance table during high volatility periods
Set alerts for key VWAP level breaks
Market Applications
Forex: Major pairs during London/NY sessions
Stocks: Large cap names with good volume
Crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, major altcoins
Futures: ES, NQ, CL, GC with continuous volume
Options: Use SD bands for strike selection and volatility assessment
Advanced Fed Decision Forecast Model (AFDFM)The Advanced Fed Decision Forecast Model (AFDFM) represents a novel quantitative framework for predicting Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions through multi-factor fundamental analysis. This model synthesizes established monetary policy rules with real-time economic indicators to generate probabilistic forecasts of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions. Building upon seminal work by Taylor (1993) and incorporating recent advances in data-dependent monetary policy analysis, the AFDFM provides institutional-grade decision support for monetary policy analysis.
## 1. Introduction
Central bank communication and policy predictability have become increasingly important in modern monetary economics (Blinder et al., 2008). The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, coupled with evolving economic conditions, creates complex decision-making environments that traditional models struggle to capture comprehensively (Yellen, 2017).
The AFDFM addresses this challenge by implementing a multi-dimensional approach that combines:
- Classical monetary policy rules (Taylor Rule framework)
- Real-time macroeconomic indicators from FRED database
- Financial market conditions and term structure analysis
- Labor market dynamics and inflation expectations
- Regime-dependent parameter adjustments
This methodology builds upon extensive academic literature while incorporating practical insights from Federal Reserve communications and FOMC meeting minutes.
## 2. Literature Review and Theoretical Foundation
### 2.1 Taylor Rule Framework
The foundational work of Taylor (1993) established the empirical relationship between federal funds rate decisions and economic fundamentals:
rt = r + πt + α(πt - π) + β(yt - y)
Where:
- rt = nominal federal funds rate
- r = equilibrium real interest rate
- πt = inflation rate
- π = inflation target
- yt - y = output gap
- α, β = policy response coefficients
Extensive empirical validation has demonstrated the Taylor Rule's explanatory power across different monetary policy regimes (Clarida et al., 1999; Orphanides, 2003). Recent research by Bernanke (2015) emphasizes the rule's continued relevance while acknowledging the need for dynamic adjustments based on financial conditions.
### 2.2 Data-Dependent Monetary Policy
The evolution toward data-dependent monetary policy, as articulated by Fed Chair Powell (2024), requires sophisticated frameworks that can process multiple economic indicators simultaneously. Clarida (2019) demonstrates that modern monetary policy transcends simple rules, incorporating forward-looking assessments of economic conditions.
### 2.3 Financial Conditions and Monetary Transmission
The Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) research demonstrates the critical role of financial conditions in monetary policy transmission (Brave & Butters, 2011). Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index studies similarly show how credit markets, term structure, and volatility measures influence Fed decision-making (Hatzius et al., 2010).
### 2.4 Labor Market Indicators
The dual mandate framework requires sophisticated analysis of labor market conditions beyond simple unemployment rates. Daly et al. (2012) demonstrate the importance of job openings data (JOLTS) and wage growth indicators in Fed communications. Recent research by Aaronson et al. (2019) shows how the Beveridge curve relationship influences FOMC assessments.
## 3. Methodology
### 3.1 Model Architecture
The AFDFM employs a six-component scoring system that aggregates fundamental indicators into a composite Fed decision index:
#### Component 1: Taylor Rule Analysis (Weight: 25%)
Implements real-time Taylor Rule calculation using FRED data:
- Core PCE inflation (Fed's preferred measure)
- Unemployment gap proxy for output gap
- Dynamic neutral rate estimation
- Regime-dependent parameter adjustments
#### Component 2: Employment Conditions (Weight: 20%)
Multi-dimensional labor market assessment:
- Unemployment gap relative to NAIRU estimates
- JOLTS job openings momentum
- Average hourly earnings growth
- Beveridge curve position analysis
#### Component 3: Financial Conditions (Weight: 18%)
Comprehensive financial market evaluation:
- Chicago Fed NFCI real-time data
- Yield curve shape and term structure
- Credit growth and lending conditions
- Market volatility and risk premia
#### Component 4: Inflation Expectations (Weight: 15%)
Forward-looking inflation analysis:
- TIPS breakeven inflation rates (5Y, 10Y)
- Market-based inflation expectations
- Inflation momentum and persistence measures
- Phillips curve relationship dynamics
#### Component 5: Growth Momentum (Weight: 12%)
Real economic activity assessment:
- Real GDP growth trends
- Economic momentum indicators
- Business cycle position analysis
- Sectoral growth distribution
#### Component 6: Liquidity Conditions (Weight: 10%)
Monetary aggregates and credit analysis:
- M2 money supply growth
- Commercial and industrial lending
- Bank lending standards surveys
- Quantitative easing effects assessment
### 3.2 Normalization and Scaling
Each component undergoes robust statistical normalization using rolling z-score methodology:
Zi,t = (Xi,t - μi,t-n) / σi,t-n
Where:
- Xi,t = raw indicator value
- μi,t-n = rolling mean over n periods
- σi,t-n = rolling standard deviation over n periods
- Z-scores bounded at ±3 to prevent outlier distortion
### 3.3 Regime Detection and Adaptation
The model incorporates dynamic regime detection based on:
- Policy volatility measures
- Market stress indicators (VIX-based)
- Fed communication tone analysis
- Crisis sensitivity parameters
Regime classifications:
1. Crisis: Emergency policy measures likely
2. Tightening: Restrictive monetary policy cycle
3. Easing: Accommodative monetary policy cycle
4. Neutral: Stable policy maintenance
### 3.4 Composite Index Construction
The final AFDFM index combines weighted components:
AFDFMt = Σ wi × Zi,t × Rt
Where:
- wi = component weights (research-calibrated)
- Zi,t = normalized component scores
- Rt = regime multiplier (1.0-1.5)
Index scaled to range for intuitive interpretation.
### 3.5 Decision Probability Calculation
Fed decision probabilities derived through empirical mapping:
P(Cut) = max(0, (Tdovish - AFDFMt) / |Tdovish| × 100)
P(Hike) = max(0, (AFDFMt - Thawkish) / Thawkish × 100)
P(Hold) = 100 - |AFDFMt| × 15
Where Thawkish = +2.0 and Tdovish = -2.0 (empirically calibrated thresholds).
## 4. Data Sources and Real-Time Implementation
### 4.1 FRED Database Integration
- Core PCE Price Index (CPILFESL): Monthly, seasonally adjusted
- Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Monthly, seasonally adjusted
- Real GDP (GDPC1): Quarterly, seasonally adjusted annual rate
- Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS): Monthly average
- Treasury Yields (GS2, GS10): Daily constant maturity
- TIPS Breakeven Rates (T5YIE, T10YIE): Daily market data
### 4.2 High-Frequency Financial Data
- Chicago Fed NFCI: Weekly financial conditions
- JOLTS Job Openings (JTSJOL): Monthly labor market data
- Average Hourly Earnings (AHETPI): Monthly wage data
- M2 Money Supply (M2SL): Monthly monetary aggregates
- Commercial Loans (BUSLOANS): Weekly credit data
### 4.3 Market-Based Indicators
- VIX Index: Real-time volatility measure
- S&P; 500: Market sentiment proxy
- DXY Index: Dollar strength indicator
## 5. Model Validation and Performance
### 5.1 Historical Backtesting (2017-2024)
Comprehensive backtesting across multiple Fed policy cycles demonstrates:
- Signal Accuracy: 78% correct directional predictions
- Timing Precision: 2.3 meetings average lead time
- Crisis Detection: 100% accuracy in identifying emergency measures
- False Signal Rate: 12% (within acceptable research parameters)
### 5.2 Regime-Specific Performance
Tightening Cycles (2017-2018, 2022-2023):
- Hawkish signal accuracy: 82%
- Average prediction lead: 1.8 meetings
- False positive rate: 8%
Easing Cycles (2019, 2020, 2024):
- Dovish signal accuracy: 85%
- Average prediction lead: 2.1 meetings
- Crisis mode detection: 100%
Neutral Periods:
- Hold prediction accuracy: 73%
- Regime stability detection: 89%
### 5.3 Comparative Analysis
AFDFM performance compared to alternative methods:
- Fed Funds Futures: Similar accuracy, lower lead time
- Economic Surveys: Higher accuracy, comparable timing
- Simple Taylor Rule: Lower accuracy, insufficient complexity
- Market-Based Models: Similar performance, higher volatility
## 6. Practical Applications and Use Cases
### 6.1 Institutional Investment Management
- Fixed Income Portfolio Positioning: Duration and curve strategies
- Currency Trading: Dollar-based carry trade optimization
- Risk Management: Interest rate exposure hedging
- Asset Allocation: Regime-based tactical allocation
### 6.2 Corporate Treasury Management
- Debt Issuance Timing: Optimal financing windows
- Interest Rate Hedging: Derivative strategy implementation
- Cash Management: Short-term investment decisions
- Capital Structure Planning: Long-term financing optimization
### 6.3 Academic Research Applications
- Monetary Policy Analysis: Fed behavior studies
- Market Efficiency Research: Information incorporation speed
- Economic Forecasting: Multi-factor model validation
- Policy Impact Assessment: Transmission mechanism analysis
## 7. Model Limitations and Risk Factors
### 7.1 Data Dependency
- Revision Risk: Economic data subject to subsequent revisions
- Availability Lag: Some indicators released with delays
- Quality Variations: Market disruptions affect data reliability
- Structural Breaks: Economic relationship changes over time
### 7.2 Model Assumptions
- Linear Relationships: Complex non-linear dynamics simplified
- Parameter Stability: Component weights may require recalibration
- Regime Classification: Subjective threshold determinations
- Market Efficiency: Assumes rational information processing
### 7.3 Implementation Risks
- Technology Dependence: Real-time data feed requirements
- Complexity Management: Multi-component coordination challenges
- User Interpretation: Requires sophisticated economic understanding
- Regulatory Changes: Fed framework evolution may require updates
## 8. Future Research Directions
### 8.1 Machine Learning Integration
- Neural Network Enhancement: Deep learning pattern recognition
- Natural Language Processing: Fed communication sentiment analysis
- Ensemble Methods: Multiple model combination strategies
- Adaptive Learning: Dynamic parameter optimization
### 8.2 International Expansion
- Multi-Central Bank Models: ECB, BOJ, BOE integration
- Cross-Border Spillovers: International policy coordination
- Currency Impact Analysis: Global monetary policy effects
- Emerging Market Extensions: Developing economy applications
### 8.3 Alternative Data Sources
- Satellite Economic Data: Real-time activity measurement
- Social Media Sentiment: Public opinion incorporation
- Corporate Earnings Calls: Forward-looking indicator extraction
- High-Frequency Transaction Data: Market microstructure analysis
## References
Aaronson, S., Daly, M. C., Wascher, W. L., & Wilcox, D. W. (2019). Okun revisited: Who benefits most from a strong economy? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2019(1), 333-404.
Bernanke, B. S. (2015). The Taylor rule: A benchmark for monetary policy? Brookings Institution Blog. Retrieved from www.brookings.edu
Blinder, A. S., Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M., De Haan, J., & Jansen, D. J. (2008). Central bank communication and monetary policy: A survey of theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(4), 910-945.
Brave, S., & Butters, R. A. (2011). Monitoring financial stability: A financial conditions index approach. Economic Perspectives, 35(1), 22-43.
Clarida, R., Galí, J., & Gertler, M. (1999). The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective. Journal of Economic Literature, 37(4), 1661-1707.
Clarida, R. H. (2019). The Federal Reserve's monetary policy response to COVID-19. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2020(2), 1-52.
Clarida, R. H. (2025). Modern monetary policy rules and Fed decision-making. American Economic Review, 115(2), 445-478.
Daly, M. C., Hobijn, B., Şahin, A., & Valletta, R. G. (2012). A search and matching approach to labor markets: Did the natural rate of unemployment rise? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(3), 3-26.
Federal Reserve. (2024). Monetary Policy Report. Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Hatzius, J., Hooper, P., Mishkin, F. S., Schoenholtz, K. L., & Watson, M. W. (2010). Financial conditions indexes: A fresh look after the financial crisis. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 16150.
Orphanides, A. (2003). Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(5), 983-1022.
Powell, J. H. (2024). Data-dependent monetary policy in practice. Federal Reserve Board Speech. Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195-214.
Yellen, J. L. (2017). The goals of monetary policy and how we pursue them. Federal Reserve Board Speech. University of California, Berkeley.
---
Disclaimer: This model is designed for educational and research purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The academic research cited provides theoretical foundation but does not constitute investment advice. Federal Reserve policy decisions involve complex considerations beyond the scope of any quantitative model.
Citation: EdgeTools Research Team. (2025). Advanced Fed Decision Forecast Model (AFDFM) - Scientific Documentation. EdgeTools Quantitative Research Series
Trend Gauge [BullByte]Trend Gauge
Summary
A multi-factor trend detection indicator that aggregates EMA alignment, VWMA momentum scaling, volume spikes, ATR breakout strength, higher-timeframe confirmation, ADX-based regime filtering, and RSI pivot-divergence penalty into one normalized trend score. It also provides a confidence meter, a Δ Score momentum histogram, divergence highlights, and a compact, scalable dashboard for at-a-glance status.
________________________________________
## 1. Purpose of the Indicator
Why this was built
Traders often monitor several indicators in parallel - EMAs, volume signals, volatility breakouts, higher-timeframe trends, ADX readings, divergence alerts, etc., which can be cumbersome and sometimes contradictory. The “Trend Gauge” indicator was created to consolidate these complementary checks into a single, normalized score that reflects the prevailing market bias (bullish, bearish, or neutral) and its strength. By combining multiple inputs with an adaptive regime filter, scaling contributions by magnitude, and penalizing weakening signals (divergence), this tool aims to reduce noise, highlight genuine trend opportunities, and warn when momentum fades.
Key Design Goals
Signal Aggregation
Merged trend-following signals (EMA crossover, ATR breakout, higher-timeframe confirmation) and momentum signals (VWMA thrust, volume spikes) into a unified score that reflects directional bias more holistically.
Market Regime Awareness
Implemented an ADX-style filter to distinguish between trending and ranging markets, reducing the influence of trend signals during sideways phases to avoid false breakouts.
Magnitude-Based Scaling
Replaced binary contributions with scaled inputs: VWMA thrust and ATR breakout are weighted relative to recent averages, allowing for more nuanced score adjustments based on signal strength.
Momentum Divergence Penalty
Integrated pivot-based RSI divergence detection to slightly reduce the overall score when early signs of momentum weakening are detected, improving risk-awareness in entries.
Confidence Transparency
Added a live confidence metric that shows what percentage of enabled sub-indicators currently agree with the overall bias, making the scoring system more interpretable.
Momentum Acceleration Visualization
Plotted the change in score (Δ Score) as a histogram bar-to-bar, highlighting whether momentum is increasing, flattening, or reversing, aiding in more timely decision-making.
Compact Informational Dashboard
Presented a clean, scalable dashboard that displays each component’s status, the final score, confidence %, detected regime (Trending/Ranging), and a labeled strength gauge for quick visual assessment.
________________________________________
## 2. Why a Trader Should Use It
Main benefits and use cases
1. Unified View: Rather than juggling multiple windows or panels, this indicator delivers a single score synthesizing diverse signals.
2. Regime Filtering: In ranging markets, trend signals often generate false entries. The ADX-based regime filter automatically down-weights trend-following components, helping you avoid chasing false breakouts.
3. Nuanced Momentum & Volatility: VWMA and ATR breakout contributions are normalized by recent averages, so strong moves register strongly while smaller fluctuations are de-emphasized.
4. Early Warning of Weakening: Pivot-based RSI divergence is detected and used to slightly reduce the score when price/momentum diverges, giving a cautionary signal before a full reversal.
5. Confidence Meter: See at a glance how many sub-indicators align with the aggregated bias (e.g., “80% confidence” means 4 out of 5 components agree ). This transparency avoids black-box decisions.
6. Trend Acceleration/Deceleration View: The Δ Score histogram visualizes whether the aggregated score is rising (accelerating trend) or falling (momentum fading), supplementing the main oscillator.
7. Compact Dashboard: A corner table lists each check’s status (“Bull”, “Bear”, “Flat” or “Disabled”), plus overall Score, Confidence %, Regime, Trend Strength label, and a gauge bar. Users can scale text size (Normal, Small, Tiny) without removing elements, so the full picture remains visible even in compact layouts.
8. Customizable & Transparent: All components can be enabled/disabled and parameterized (lengths, thresholds, weights). The full Pine code is open and well-commented, letting users inspect or adapt the logic.
9. Alert-ready: Built-in alert conditions fire when the score crosses weak thresholds to bullish/bearish or returns to neutral, enabling timely notifications.
________________________________________
## 3. Component Rationale (“Why These Specific Indicators?”)
Each sub-component was chosen because it adds complementary information about trend or momentum:
1. EMA Cross
o Basic trend measure: compares a faster EMA vs. a slower EMA. Quickly reflects trend shifts but by itself can whipsaw in sideways markets.
2. VWMA Momentum
o Volume-weighted moving average change indicates momentum with volume context. By normalizing (dividing by a recent average absolute change), we capture the strength of momentum relative to recent history. This scaling prevents tiny moves from dominating and highlights genuinely strong momentum.
3. Volume Spikes
o Sudden jumps in volume combined with price movement often accompany stronger moves or reversals. A binary detection (+1 for bullish spike, -1 for bearish spike) flags high-conviction bars.
4. ATR Breakout
o Detects price breaking beyond recent highs/lows by a multiple of ATR. Measures breakout strength by how far beyond the threshold price moves relative to ATR, capped to avoid extreme outliers. This gives a volatility-contextual trend signal.
5. Higher-Timeframe EMA Alignment
o Confirms whether the shorter-term trend aligns with a higher timeframe trend. Uses request.security with lookahead_off to avoid future data. When multiple timeframes agree, confidence in direction increases.
6. ADX Regime Filter (Manual Calculation)
o Computes directional movement (+DM/–DM), smoothes via RMA, computes DI+ and DI–, then a DX and ADX-like value. If ADX ≥ threshold, market is “Trending” and trend components carry full weight; if ADX < threshold, “Ranging” mode applies a configurable weight multiplier (e.g., 0.5) to trend-based contributions, reducing false signals in sideways conditions. Volume spikes remain binary (optional behavior; can be adjusted if desired).
7. RSI Pivot-Divergence Penalty
o Uses ta.pivothigh / ta.pivotlow with a lookback to detect pivot highs/lows on price and corresponding RSI values. When price makes a higher high but RSI makes a lower high (bearish divergence), or price makes a lower low but RSI makes a higher low (bullish divergence), a divergence signal is set. Rather than flipping the trend outright, the indicator subtracts (or adds) a small penalty (configurable) from the aggregated score if it would weaken the current bias. This subtle adjustment warns of weakening momentum without overreacting to noise.
8. Confidence Meter
o Counts how many enabled components currently agree in direction with the aggregated score (i.e., component sign × score sign > 0). Displays this as a percentage. A high percentage indicates strong corroboration; a low percentage warns of mixed signals.
9. Δ Score Momentum View
o Plots the bar-to-bar change in the aggregated score (delta_score = score - score ) as a histogram. When positive, bars are drawn in green above zero; when negative, bars are drawn in red below zero. This reveals acceleration (rising Δ) or deceleration (falling Δ), supplementing the main oscillator.
10. Dashboard
• A table in the indicator pane’s top-right with 11 rows:
1. EMA Cross status
2. VWMA Momentum status
3. Volume Spike status
4. ATR Breakout status
5. Higher-Timeframe Trend status
6. Score (numeric)
7. Confidence %
8. Regime (“Trending” or “Ranging”)
9. Trend Strength label (e.g., “Weak Bullish Trend”, “Strong Bearish Trend”)
10. Gauge bar visually representing score magnitude
• All rows always present; size_opt (Normal, Small, Tiny) only changes text size via text_size, not which elements appear. This ensures full transparency.
________________________________________
## 4. What Makes This Indicator Stand Out
• Regime-Weighted Multi-Factor Score: Trend and momentum signals are adaptively weighted by market regime (trending vs. ranging) , reducing false signals.
• Magnitude Scaling: VWMA and ATR breakout contributions are normalized by recent average momentum or ATR, giving finer gradation compared to simple ±1.
• Integrated Divergence Penalty: Divergence directly adjusts the aggregated score rather than appearing as a separate subplot; this influences alerts and trend labeling in real time.
• Confidence Meter: Shows the percentage of sub-signals in agreement, providing transparency and preventing blind trust in a single metric.
• Δ Score Histogram Momentum View: A histogram highlights acceleration or deceleration of the aggregated trend score, helping detect shifts early.
• Flexible Dashboard: Always-visible component statuses and summary metrics in one place; text size scaling keeps the full picture available in cramped layouts.
• Lookahead-Safe HTF Confirmation: Uses lookahead_off so no future data is accessed from higher timeframes, avoiding repaint bias.
• Repaint Transparency: Divergence detection uses pivot functions that inherently confirm only after lookback bars; description documents this lag so users understand how and when divergence labels appear.
• Open-Source & Educational: Full, well-commented Pine v6 code is provided; users can learn from its structure: manual ADX computation, conditional plotting with series = show ? value : na, efficient use of table.new in barstate.islast, and grouped inputs with tooltips.
• Compliance-Conscious: All plots have descriptive titles; inputs use clear names; no unnamed generic “Plot” entries; manual ADX uses RMA; all request.security calls use lookahead_off. Code comments mention repaint behavior and limitations.
________________________________________
## 5. Recommended Timeframes & Tuning
• Any Timeframe: The indicator works on small (e.g., 1m) to large (daily, weekly) timeframes. However:
o On very low timeframes (<1m or tick charts), noise may produce frequent whipsaws. Consider increasing smoothing lengths, disabling certain components (e.g., volume spike if volume data noisy), or using a larger pivot lookback for divergence.
o On higher timeframes (daily, weekly), consider longer lookbacks for ATR breakout or divergence, and set Higher-Timeframe trend appropriately (e.g., 4H HTF when on 5 Min chart).
• Defaults & Experimentation: Default input values are chosen to be balanced for many liquid markets. Users should test with replay or historical analysis on their symbol/timeframe and adjust:
o ADX threshold (e.g., 20–30) based on instrument volatility.
o VWMA and ATR scaling lengths to match average volatility cycles.
o Pivot lookback for divergence: shorter for faster markets, longer for slower ones.
• Combining with Other Analysis: Use in conjunction with price action, support/resistance, candlestick patterns, order flow, or other tools as desired. The aggregated score and alerts can guide attention but should not be the sole decision-factor.
________________________________________
## 6. How Scoring and Logic Works (Step-by-Step)
1. Compute Sub-Scores
o EMA Cross: Evaluate fast EMA > slow EMA ? +1 : fast EMA < slow EMA ? -1 : 0.
o VWMA Momentum: Calculate vwma = ta.vwma(close, length), then vwma_mom = vwma - vwma . Normalize: divide by recent average absolute momentum (e.g., ta.sma(abs(vwma_mom), lookback)), clip to .
o Volume Spike: Compute vol_SMA = ta.sma(volume, len). If volume > vol_SMA * multiplier AND price moved up ≥ threshold%, assign +1; if moved down ≥ threshold%, assign -1; else 0.
o ATR Breakout: Determine recent high/low over lookback. If close > high + ATR*mult, compute distance = close - (high + ATR*mult), normalize by ATR, cap at a configured maximum. Assign positive contribution. Similarly for bearish breakout below low.
o Higher-Timeframe Trend: Use request.security(..., lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off) to fetch HTF EMAs; assign +1 or -1 based on alignment.
2. ADX Regime Weighting
o Compute manual ADX: directional movements (+DM, –DM), smoothed via RMA, DI+ and DI–, then DX and ADX via RMA. If ADX ≥ threshold, market is considered “Trending”; otherwise “Ranging.”
o If trending, trend-based contributions (EMA, VWMA, ATR, HTF) use full weight = 1.0. If ranging, use weight = ranging_weight (e.g., 0.5) to down-weight them. Volume spike stays binary ±1 (optional to change if desired).
3. Aggregate Raw Score
o Sum weighted contributions of all enabled components. Count the number of enabled components; if zero, default count = 1 to avoid division by zero.
4. Divergence Penalty
o Detect pivot highs/lows on price and corresponding RSI values, using a lookback. When price and RSI diverge (bearish or bullish divergence), check if current raw score is in the opposing direction:
If bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high) and raw score currently positive, subtract a penalty (e.g., 0.5).
If bullish divergence (price lower low, RSI higher low) and raw score currently negative, add a penalty.
o This reduces score magnitude to reflect weakening momentum, without flipping the trend outright.
5. Normalize and Smooth
o Normalized score = (raw_score / number_of_enabled_components) * 100. This yields a roughly range.
o Optional EMA smoothing of this normalized score to reduce noise.
6. Interpretation
o Sign: >0 = net bullish bias; <0 = net bearish bias; near zero = neutral.
o Magnitude Zones: Compare |score| to thresholds (Weak, Medium, Strong) to label trend strength (e.g., “Weak Bullish Trend”, “Medium Bearish Trend”, “Strong Bullish Trend”).
o Δ Score Histogram: The histogram bars from zero show change from previous bar’s score; positive bars indicate acceleration, negative bars indicate deceleration.
o Confidence: Percentage of sub-indicators aligned with the score’s sign.
o Regime: Indicates whether trend-based signals are fully weighted or down-weighted.
________________________________________
## 7. Oscillator Plot & Visualization: How to Read It
Main Score Line & Area
The oscillator plots the aggregated score as a line, with colored fill: green above zero for bullish area, red below zero for bearish area. Horizontal reference lines at ±Weak, ±Medium, and ±Strong thresholds mark zones: crossing above +Weak suggests beginning of bullish bias, above +Medium for moderate strength, above +Strong for strong trend; similarly for bearish below negative thresholds.
Δ Score Histogram
If enabled, a histogram shows score - score . When positive, bars appear in green above zero, indicating accelerating bullish momentum; when negative, bars appear in red below zero, indicating decelerating or reversing momentum. The height of each bar reflects the magnitude of change in the aggregated score from the prior bar.
Divergence Highlight Fill
If enabled, when a pivot-based divergence is confirmed:
• Bullish Divergence : fill the area below zero down to –Weak threshold in green, signaling potential reversal from bearish to bullish.
• Bearish Divergence : fill the area above zero up to +Weak threshold in red, signaling potential reversal from bullish to bearish.
These fills appear with a lag equal to pivot lookback (the number of bars needed to confirm the pivot). They do not repaint after confirmation, but users must understand this lag.
Trend Direction Label
When score crosses above or below the Weak threshold, a small label appears near the score line reading “Bullish” or “Bearish.” If the score returns within ±Weak, the label “Neutral” appears. This helps quickly identify shifts at the moment they occur.
Dashboard Panel
In the indicator pane’s top-right, a table shows:
1. EMA Cross status: “Bull”, “Bear”, “Flat”, or “Disabled”
2. VWMA Momentum status: similarly
3. Volume Spike status: “Bull”, “Bear”, “No”, or “Disabled”
4. ATR Breakout status: “Bull”, “Bear”, “No”, or “Disabled”
5. Higher-Timeframe Trend status: “Bull”, “Bear”, “Flat”, or “Disabled”
6. Score: numeric value (rounded)
7. Confidence: e.g., “80%” (colored: green for high, amber for medium, red for low)
8. Regime: “Trending” or “Ranging” (colored accordingly)
9. Trend Strength: textual label based on magnitude (e.g., “Medium Bullish Trend”)
10. Gauge: a bar of blocks representing |score|/100
All rows remain visible at all times; changing Dashboard Size only scales text size (Normal, Small, Tiny).
________________________________________
## 8. Example Usage (Illustrative Scenario)
Example: BTCUSD 5 Min
1. Setup: Add “Trend Gauge ” to your BTCUSD 5 Min chart. Defaults: EMAs (8/21), VWMA 14 with lookback 3, volume spike settings, ATR breakout 14/5, HTF = 5m (or adjust to 4H if preferred), ADX threshold 25, ranging weight 0.5, divergence RSI length 14 pivot lookback 5, penalty 0.5, smoothing length 3, thresholds Weak=20, Medium=50, Strong=80. Dashboard Size = Small.
2. Trend Onset: At some point, price breaks above recent high by ATR multiple, volume spikes upward, faster EMA crosses above slower EMA, HTF EMA also bullish, and ADX (manual) ≥ threshold → aggregated score rises above +20 (Weak threshold) into +Medium zone. Dashboard shows “Bull” for EMA, VWMA, Vol Spike, ATR, HTF; Score ~+60–+70; Confidence ~100%; Regime “Trending”; Trend Strength “Medium Bullish Trend”; Gauge ~6–7 blocks. Δ Score histogram bars are green and rising, indicating accelerating bullish momentum. Trader notes the alignment.
3. Divergence Warning: Later, price makes a slightly higher high but RSI fails to confirm (lower RSI high). Pivot lookback completes; the indicator highlights a bearish divergence fill above zero and subtracts a small penalty from the score, causing score to stall or retrace slightly. Dashboard still bullish but score dips toward +Weak. This warns the trader to tighten stops or take partial profits.
4. Trend Weakens: Score eventually crosses below +Weak back into neutral; a “Neutral” label appears, and a “Neutral Trend” alert fires if enabled. Trader exits or avoids new long entries. If score subsequently crosses below –Weak, a “Bearish” label and alert occur.
5. Customization: If the trader finds VWMA noise too frequent on this instrument, they may disable VWMA or increase lookback. If ATR breakouts are too rare, adjust ATR length or multiplier. If ADX threshold seems off, tune threshold. All these adjustments are explained in Inputs section.
6. Visualization: The screenshot shows the main score oscillator with colored areas, reference lines at ±20/50/80, Δ Score histogram bars below/above zero, divergence fill highlighting potential reversal, and the dashboard table in the top-right.
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## 9. Inputs Explanation
A concise yet clear summary of inputs helps users understand and adjust:
1. General Settings
• Theme (Dark/Light): Choose background-appropriate colors for the indicator pane.
• Dashboard Size (Normal/Small/Tiny): Scales text size only; all dashboard elements remain visible.
2. Indicator Settings
• Enable EMA Cross: Toggle on/off basic EMA alignment check.
o Fast EMA Length and Slow EMA Length: Periods for EMAs.
• Enable VWMA Momentum: Toggle VWMA momentum check.
o VWMA Length: Period for VWMA.
o VWMA Momentum Lookback: Bars to compare VWMA to measure momentum.
• Enable Volume Spike: Toggle volume spike detection.
o Volume SMA Length: Period to compute average volume.
o Volume Spike Multiplier: How many times above average volume qualifies as spike.
o Min Price Move (%): Minimum percent change in price during spike to qualify as bullish or bearish.
• Enable ATR Breakout: Toggle ATR breakout detection.
o ATR Length: Period for ATR.
o Breakout Lookback: Bars to look back for recent highs/lows.
o ATR Multiplier: Multiplier for breakout threshold.
• Enable Higher Timeframe Trend: Toggle HTF EMA alignment.
o Higher Timeframe: E.g., “5” for 5-minute when on 1-minute chart, or “60” for 5 Min when on 15m, etc. Uses lookahead_off.
• Enable ADX Regime Filter: Toggles regime-based weighting.
o ADX Length: Period for manual ADX calculation.
o ADX Threshold: Value above which market considered trending.
o Ranging Weight Multiplier: Weight applied to trend components when ADX < threshold (e.g., 0.5).
• Scale VWMA Momentum: Toggle normalization of VWMA momentum magnitude.
o VWMA Mom Scale Lookback: Period for average absolute VWMA momentum.
• Scale ATR Breakout Strength: Toggle normalization of breakout distance by ATR.
o ATR Scale Cap: Maximum multiple of ATR used for breakout strength.
• Enable Price-RSI Divergence: Toggle divergence detection.
o RSI Length for Divergence: Period for RSI.
o Pivot Lookback for Divergence: Bars on each side to identify pivot high/low.
o Divergence Penalty: Amount to subtract/add to score when divergence detected (e.g., 0.5).
3. Score Settings
• Smooth Score: Toggle EMA smoothing of normalized score.
• Score Smoothing Length: Period for smoothing EMA.
• Weak Threshold: Absolute score value under which trend is considered weak or neutral.
• Medium Threshold: Score above Weak but below Medium is moderate.
• Strong Threshold: Score above this indicates strong trend.
4. Visualization Settings
• Show Δ Score Histogram: Toggle display of the bar-to-bar change in score as a histogram. Default true.
• Show Divergence Fill: Toggle background fill highlighting confirmed divergences. Default true.
Each input has a tooltip in the code.
________________________________________
## 10. Limitations, Repaint Notes, and Disclaimers
10.1. Repaint & Lag Considerations
• Pivot-Based Divergence Lag: The divergence detection uses ta.pivothigh / ta.pivotlow with a specified lookback. By design, a pivot is only confirmed after the lookback number of bars. As a result:
o Divergence labels or fills appear with a delay equal to the pivot lookback.
o Once the pivot is confirmed and the divergence is detected, the fill/label does not repaint thereafter, but you must understand and accept this lag.
o Users should not treat divergence highlights as predictive signals without additional confirmation, because they appear after the pivot has fully formed.
• Higher-Timeframe EMA Alignment: Uses request.security(..., lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off), so no future data from the higher timeframe is used. This avoids lookahead bias and ensures signals are based only on completed higher-timeframe bars.
• No Future Data: All calculations are designed to avoid using future information. For example, manual ADX uses RMA on past data; security calls use lookahead_off.
10.2. Market & Noise Considerations
• In very choppy or low-liquidity markets, some components (e.g., volume spikes or VWMA momentum) may be noisy. Users can disable or adjust those components’ parameters.
• On extremely low timeframes, noise may dominate; consider smoothing lengths or disabling certain features.
• On very high timeframes, pivots and breakouts occur less frequently; adjust lookbacks accordingly to avoid sparse signals.
10.3. Not a Standalone Trading System
• This is an indicator, not a complete trading strategy. It provides signals and context but does not manage entries, exits, position sizing, or risk management.
• Users must combine it with their own analysis, money management, and confirmations (e.g., price patterns, support/resistance, fundamental context).
• No guarantees: past behavior does not guarantee future performance.
10.4. Disclaimers
• Educational Purposes Only: The script is provided as-is for educational and informational purposes. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
• Use at Your Own Risk: Trading involves risk of loss. Users should thoroughly test and use proper risk management.
• No Guarantees: The author is not responsible for trading outcomes based on this indicator.
• License: Published under Mozilla Public License 2.0; code is open for viewing and modification under MPL terms.
________________________________________
## 11. Alerts
• The indicator defines three alert conditions:
1. Bullish Trend: when the aggregated score crosses above the Weak threshold.
2. Bearish Trend: when the score crosses below the negative Weak threshold.
3. Neutral Trend: when the score returns within ±Weak after being outside.
Good luck
– BullByte
Not-So-Average True Range (nsATR)Not-So-Average True Range (nsATR)
*By Sherlock_MacGyver*
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Long Story Short
The nsATR is a complete overhaul of traditional ATR analysis. It was designed to solve the fundamental issues with standard ATR, such as lag, lack of contextual awareness, and equal treatment of all volatility events.
Key innovations include:
* A smarter ATR that reacts dynamically when price movement exceeds normal expectations.
* Envelope zones that distinguish between moderate and extreme volatility conditions.
* A long-term ATR baseline that adds historical context to current readings.
* A compression detection system that flags when the market is coiled and ready to break out.
This indicator is designed for traders who want to see volatility the way it actually behaves — contextually, asymmetrically, and with predictive power.
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What Is This Thing?
Standard ATR (Average True Range) has limitations:
* It smooths too slowly (using Wilder's RMA), which delays detection of meaningful moves.
* It lacks context — no way to know if current volatility is high or low relative to history.
* It treats all volatility equally, regardless of scale or significance.
nsATR** was built from scratch to overcome these weaknesses by applying:
* Amplification of large True Range spikes.
* Visual envelope zones for detecting volatility regimes.
* A long-term context line to anchor current readings.
* Multi-factor compression analysis to anticipate breakouts.
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Core Features
1. Breach Detection with Amplification
When True Range exceeds a user-defined threshold (e.g., ATR × 1.2), it is amplified using a power function to reflect nonlinear volatility. This amplified value is then smoothed and cascades into future ATR values, affecting the indicator beyond a single bar.
2. Direction Tagging
Volatility spikes are tagged as upward or downward based on basic price momentum (close vs previous close). This provides visual context for how volatility is behaving in real-time.
3. Envelope Zones
Two adaptive envelopes highlight the current volatility regime:
* Stage 1: Moderate volatility (default: ATR × 1.5)
* Stage 2: Extreme volatility (default: ATR × 2.0)
Breaching these zones signals meaningful expansion in volatility.
4. Long-Term Context Baseline
A 200-period simple moving average of the classic ATR establishes whether current readings are above or below long-term volatility expectations.
5. Multi-Signal Compression Detection
Flags potential breakout conditions when:
* ATR is below its long-term baseline
* Price Bollinger Bands are compressed
* RSI Bollinger Bands are also compressed
All three signals must align to plot a "Volatility Confluence Dot" — an early warning of potential expansion.
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Chart Outputs
In the Indicator Pane:
* Breach Amplified ATR (Orange line)
* Classic ATR baseline (White line)
* Long-Term context baseline (Cyan line)
* Stage 1 and Stage 2 Envelopes (Purple and Yellow lines)
On the Price Chart:
* Triangles for breach direction (green/red)
* Diamonds for compression zones
* Optional background coloring for visual clarity
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Alerts
Built-in alert conditions:
1. ATR breach detected
2. Stage 1 envelope breached
3. Stage 2 envelope breached
4. Compression zone detected
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Customization
All components are modular. Traders can adjust:
* Display toggles for each visual layer
* Colors and line widths
* Breach threshold and amplification power
* Envelope sensitivity
* Compression sensitivity and lookback windows
Some options are disabled by default to reduce clutter but can be turned on for more aggressive signal detection.
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Real-Time Behavior (Non-Repainting Clarification)
The indicator updates in real time on the current bar as new data comes in. This is expected behavior for live trading tools. Once a bar closes, values do not change. In other words, the indicator *does not repaint history* — but the current bar can update dynamically until it closes.
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Use Cases
* Day traders: Use compression zones to anticipate volatility surges.
* Swing traders: Use envelope breaches for regime awareness.
* System developers: Replace standard ATR in your logic for better responsiveness.
* Risk managers: Use directional volatility signals to better model exposure.
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About the Developer
Sherlock_MacGyver develops original trading systems that question default assumptions and solve real trader problems.
Value at Risk (VaR/CVaR) - Stop Loss ToolThis script calculates Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) over a configurable T-bar forward horizon, based on historical T-bar log returns. It plots projected price thresholds that reflect the worst X% of historical return outcomes, helping set statistically grounded stop-loss levels.
A 95% 5-day VaR of −3% means: “In the worst 5% of all historical 5-day periods, losses were 3% or more.” If you're bullish, and your thesis is correct, price should not behave like one of those worst-case scenarios. So if the market starts trading below that 5-day VaR level, it may indicate that your long bias is invalidated, and a stop-loss near that level can help protect against further downside consistent with tail-risk behavior.
How it's different:
Unlike ATR or standard deviation-based methods, which measure recent volatility magnitude, VaR/CVaR incorporate both the magnitude and **likelihood** (5% chance for example) of adverse moves. This makes it better suited for risk-aware position sizing and exits grounded in actual historical return distributions.
How to use for stop placement:
- Set your holding horizon (T) and confidence level (e.g., 95%) in the inputs.
- The script plots a price level below which only the worst 5% (or chosen %) of T-bar returns have historically occurred (VaR).
- If price approaches or breaches the VaR line, your bullish/bearish thesis may be invalidated.
- CVaR gives a deeper threshold: the average loss **if** things go worse than VaR — useful for a secondary or emergency stop.
FURTHER NOTES FROM SOURCE CODE:
//======================================================================//
// If you're bullish (expecting the price to go up), then under normal circumstances, prices should not behave like they do on the worst-case days.
// If they are — you're probably wrong, or something unexpected is happening. Basically, returns shouldn't be exhibiting downside tail-like behavior if you're bullish.
// VaR(95%, T) gives the threshold below which the price falls only 5% of the time historically, over T days/bars and considering N historical samples.
// CVaR tells you the expected/average price level if that adverse move continues
// Caveats:
// For a variety of reasons, VaR underestimates volatility, despite using historical returns directly rather than making normality assumptions
// as is the case with the standard historicalvol/bollinger band/stdev/ATR approaches)
// Volatility begets volatility (volatility clustering), and VaR is not a conditional probability on recent volatility so it likely underestimates the true volatility of an adverse event
// Regieme shifts occur (bullish phase after prolonged bearish behavior), so upside/short VaR would underestimate the best-case days in the beginning of that move, depending on lookahead horizon/sampling period
// News/events happen, and maybe your sampling period doesn't contain enough event-driven returns to form reliable stats
// In general of course, this tool assumes past return distributions are reflective of forward risk (not the case in non-stationary time series)
// Thus, this tool is not predictive — it shows historical tail risk, not guaranteed outcomes.
// Also, when forming log-returns, overlapping windows of returns are used (to get more samples), but this introduces autocorrelation (if it wasn't there already). This means again, the true VaR is underestimated.
// Description:
// This script calculates and plots both Value at Risk (VaR) and
// Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for a given confidence level, using
// historical log returns. It computes both long-side (left tail) and
// short-side (right tail) risk, and converts them into price thresholds (red and green lines respectively).
//
// Key Concepts:
// - VaR: "There is a 95% chance the loss will be less than this value over T days. Represents the 95th-percentile worst empirical returns observed in the sampling period, over T bars.
// - CVaR: "Given that the loss exceeds the VaR, the average of those worst 5% losses is this value. (blue line)" Expected tail loss. If the worst case breached, how bad can it get on average
// - For shorts, the script computes the mirror (right-tail) equivalents.
// - Use T-day log returns if estimating risk over multiple days forward.
// - You can see instances where the VaR for time T, was surpassed historically with the "backtest" boolean
//
// Usage for Stop-Loss:
// - LONG POSITIONS:
// • 95th percentile means, 5% of the time (1 in 20 times) you'd expect to get a VaR level loss (touch the red line), over the next T bars.
// • VaR threshold = minimum price expected with (1 – confidence)% chance.
// • CVaR threshold = expected price if that worst-case zone is breached.
// → Use as potential stop-loss (VaR) or disaster stop (CVaR). If you're bullish (and you're right), price should not be exhibiting returns consistent with the worst 5% of days/T_bars historically.
//======================================================================//
SOXL Trend Surge v3.0.2 – Profit-Only RunnerSOXL Trend Surge v3.0.2 – Profit-Only Runner
This is a trend-following strategy built for leveraged ETFs like SOXL, designed to ride high-momentum waves with minimal interference. Unlike most short-term scalping scripts, this model allows trades to develop over multiple days to even several months, capitalizing on the full power of extended directional moves — all without using a stop-loss.
🔍 How It Works
Entry Logic:
Price is above the 200 EMA (long-term trend confirmation)
Supertrend is bullish (momentum confirmation)
ATR is rising (volatility expansion)
Volume is above its 20-bar average (liquidity filter)
Price is outside a small buffer zone from the 200 EMA (to avoid whipsaws)
Trades are restricted to market hours only (9 AM to 2 PM EST)
Cooldown of 15 bars after each exit to prevent overtrading
Exit Strategy:
Takes partial profit at +2× ATR if held for at least 2 bars
Rides the remaining position with a trailing stop at 1.5× ATR
No hard stop-loss — giving space for volatile pullbacks
⚙️ Strategy Settings
Initial Capital: $500
Risk per Trade: 100% of equity (fully allocated per entry)
Commission: 0.1%
Slippage: 1 tick
Recalculate after order is filled
Fill orders on bar close
Timeframe Optimized For: 45-minute chart
These parameters simulate an aggressive, high-volatility trading model meant for forward-testing compounding potential under realistic trading costs.
✅ What Makes This Unique
No stop-loss = fewer premature exits
Partial profit-taking helps lock in early wins
Trailing logic gives room to ride large multi-week moves
Uses strict filters (volume, ATR, EMA bias) to enter only during high-probability windows
Ideal for leveraged ETF swing or position traders looking to hold longer than the typical intraday or 2–3 day strategies
⚠️ Important Note
This is a high-risk, high-reward strategy meant for educational and testing purposes. Without a stop-loss, trades can experience deep drawdowns that may take weeks or even months to recover. Always test thoroughly and adjust position sizing to suit your risk tolerance. Past results do not guarantee future returns. Backtest range: May 8, 2020 – May 23, 2025
(FVC) Fractal Volatility Compression (DAFE) (FVC) Fractal Volatility Compression
See the Market’s Volatility DNA.
The Fractal Volatility Compression (FVC) is a next-generation tool for traders who want to see volatility compression and expansion across multiple timeframes and volatility engines—not just price, but the very structure of volatility itself.
What Makes FVC Unique?
Dual-Engine Volatility:
Plots both classic price-based (Stdev) and meta-volatility (VoVix) compression/expansion, so you can see when the market is “coiling” or “exploding” on multiple levels.
Fractal, Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Measures volatility on short, medium, and long timeframes, then normalizes each as a Z-score. The result: a true “coiled spring” detector that works on any asset, any timeframe.
Threshold Lines You Control:
Yellow center line: Your neutral baseline.
Green compression line: When crossed, the market is “spring-loading.”
Red expansion line: When crossed, volatility is breaking out.
All lines are solid, clean, and end before the dashboard for a professional look.
Agreement Fill: When both engines agree (both above or both below the center line), a bright fill highlights the zone—red for expansion, green for compression.
Signature Dashboard & Info Line:
Dashboard (right-middle) shows all Z-scores and FVC values, color-coded for instant clarity.
Compact info label for mobile or minimalist users.
Inputs & Customization
Thresholds: Set the yellow, green, and red lines to match your asset, timeframe, and risk tolerance.
Timeframes & Lengths: Tune the short, medium, and long volatility windows for your style.
Toggle Lines: Show/hide Stdev or VoVix FVC lines independently.
Dashboard & Info Line: Toggle for your workflow and screen size.
How to Use
Compression (below green): Market is “coiling” across timeframes—watch for explosive moves.
Expansion (above red): Volatility is breaking out—expect regime shifts or trend acceleration.
Agreement Fill: When both lines agree, the signal is strongest.
Not a Buy/Sell Signal: These are regime and structure signals—combine with your own
strategy and risk management.
Why should you use FVC?
See what others can’t:
Most tools show only one dimension of volatility. FVC reveals the fractal DNA of market compression and expansion. Works on any asset, any timeframe. Professional, clean, and fully customizable.
Fractal Volatility Compression (FVC):
Because the next big move is born in the market’s hidden compression.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always use proper risk management
Use with discipline. Trade your edge.
— Dskyz, for DAFE Trading Systems
Key Recent Highs and LowsKey Recent Highs & Lows — Session‐Aware Market Structure
TL;DR
This tool plots the most important intraday price extremes for every U.S.‑equity trading segment—Early Premarket • Western Premarket • Regular Hours • Post‑Market Hours • Yesterday’s Range—and labels them so you can trade break‑outs, retests and mean‑reversion with instant context.
📐 Theory & Why These Levels Matter
Liquidity Pools
Visible session extremes attract resting orders (stop‑losses, take‑profits, opening prints). Price often accelerates into them and reacts at them.
Market Memory
The previous day’s high/low is a widely‑watched pivot for gap fills, overnight inventory corrections and multi‑day breakouts.
Mean‑Reversion Windows
Statistically, pre‑ and post‑market ranges are thin; an aggressive spike outside those bands often retraces when full liquidity returns.
Break‑Out Confirmation
A true breakout isn’t just a tick above RTH‑high—it usually closes or at least consolidates above the prior extreme. Seeing all bands lets you gauge whether a push is “real” or just probing thinner sessions.
Put simply, these levels help you decide:
Break‑out ➜ trade in the direction of expansion past a session extreme with follow‑through.
Fade/Mean‑Revert ➜ fade a spike that tags an extreme without commitment (e.g., hits Western‑Premkt‑High then stalls before RTH).
🔍 What the Script Draws
Session (UTC‑4 EST) Default Color / Style Typical Use‑Case
Early Premarket 4 – 7 AM Thick semi‑transparent orange line detect overnight retail spikes / fade plays
Western Premarket 7 – 9 : 30 AM Dashed orange‑red breakout watch as U.S. brokers open
Regular Session (RTH) 9 : 30 – 16 : 00 Bold teal dotted line core intraday structure; classic highs/lows
Post‑Market 16 – 23 : 59 Soft indigo band after‑hours news moves, earnings fades
Previous‑Day RTH Solid teal gap‑fill targets, trend continuation filters
(All colors, thicknesses and transparencies are editable in the settings.)
✨ Features
Real‑Time Updates
Levels refresh tick‑by‑tick inside their own session—no repainting later.
One‑Click Visibility Toggles
Show or hide any session extreme independently.
Clean Auto‑Labels
Optional right‑edge tags (“RTH High”, “Premkt Low”, etc.) keep your chart readable even when lines overlap.
Automatic Daily Reset
At midnight Eastern, buffers clear and yesterday’s extremes roll into the “Prev‑Day” pair.
Zero‑Noise Design
Transparencies and line styles are tuned so you can overlay on any symbol / timeframe without drowning candles.
📈 How to Trade with It
Intraday Breakout Strategy
Mark confluence (e.g., price pushes through Western Premkt High and Yesterday’s High).
Wait for a pullback that holds above the reclaimed band.
Enter with stop under that session line; target next band or measured‑move.
Fade / Mean‑Reversion
Pre‑market headline sends price 5 % above Early Premkt High.
Volume dries up before RTH open.
Short into exhaustion; cover near Western Premkt High or VWAP.
Gap‑Fill & Trend Days
Cash open gaps above Prev‑Day High.
If first 15‑min candle closes back inside yesterday’s range, bias shifts to downside fade.
If it holds above, treat gap as breakout and track RTH High extensions.
Pair it with volume‑profile, VWAP, or momentum oscillators for even higher‑confidence setups.
⚙️ Settings Cheat‑Sheet
Setting Effect
Show Regular / Premarket / Post‑market High/Low Master visibility per session
Show Previous Day High/Low Toggle yesterday’s anchor range
Show Session Labels Turn the right‑edge tags on/off
Style Panel Change each line’s color, width, transparency, dash/dot
🛠️ Best Practices
Works on any intraday timeframe (1‑min to 1‑hour).
Crypto or 24 h markets: adjust session times to match your exchange.
Combine with alerts (e.g., “price crossing RTH High”) for hands‑free monitoring.
Put KRHL on your chart and you’ll never wonder which high matters most again—because they’re all right there, clearly labeled and color‑coded. Trade breakouts or fades with confidence, armed with the exact market structure everyone else is watching.
