Contrarian RSIContrarian RSI Indicator
Pairs nicely with Contrarian 100 MA (optional hide/unhide buy/sell signals)
Description
The Contrarian RSI is a momentum-based technical indicator designed to identify potential reversal points in price action by combining a unique RSI calculation with a predictive range model inspired by the "Contrarian 5 Levels" logic. Unlike traditional RSI, which measures price momentum based solely on price changes, this indicator integrates a smoothed, weighted momentum calculation and predictive price ranges to generate contrarian signals. It is particularly suited for traders looking to capture reversals in trending or range-bound markets.
This indicator is versatile and can be used across various timeframes, though it performs best on higher timeframes (e.g., 1H, 4H, or Daily) due to reduced noise and more reliable signals. Lower timeframes may require additional testing and careful parameter tuning to optimize performance.
How It Works
The Contrarian RSI combines two primary components:
Predictive Ranges (5 Levels Logic): This calculates a smoothed price average that adapts to market volatility using an ATR-based mechanism. It helps identify significant price levels that act as potential support or resistance zones.
Contrarian RSI Calculation: A modified RSI calculation that uses weighted momentum from the predictive ranges to measure buying and selling pressure. The result is smoothed and paired with a user-defined moving average to generate clear signals.
The indicator generates buy (long) and sell (exit) signals based on crossovers and crossunders of user-defined overbought and oversold levels, making it ideal for contrarian trading strategies.
Calculation Overview
Predictive Ranges (5 Levels Logic):
Uses a custom function (pred_ranges) to calculate a dynamic price average (avg) based on the ATR (Average True Range) multiplied by a user-defined factor (mult).
The average adjusts only when the price moves beyond the ATR threshold, ensuring responsiveness to significant price changes while filtering out noise.
This calculation is performed on a user-specified timeframe (tf5Levels) for multi-timeframe analysis.
Contrarian RSI:
Compares consecutive predictive range values to calculate gains (g) and losses (l) over a user-defined period (crsiLength).
Applies a Gaussian weighting function (weight = math.exp(-math.pow(i / crsiLength, 2))) to prioritize recent price movements.
Computes a "wave ratio" (net_momentum / total_energy) to normalize momentum, which is then scaled to a 0–100 range (qrsi = 50 + 50 * wave_ratio).
Smooths the result with a 2-period EMA (qrsi_smoothed) for stability.
Moving Average:
Applies a user-selected moving average (SMA, EMA, WMA, SMMA, or VWMA) with a customizable length (maLength) to the smoothed RSI (qrsi_smoothed) to generate the final indicator value (qrsi_ma).
Signal Generation:
Long Entry: Triggered when qrsi_ma crosses above the oversold level (oversoldLevel, default: 1).
Long Exit: Triggered when qrsi_ma crosses below the overbought level (overboughtLevel, default: 99).
Entry and Exit Rules
Long Entry: Enter a long position when the Contrarian RSI (qrsi_ma) crosses above the oversold level (default: 1). This suggests the asset is potentially oversold and due for a reversal.
Long Exit: Exit the long position when the Contrarian RSI (qrsi_ma) crosses below the overbought level (default: 99), indicating a potential overbought condition and a reversal to the downside.
Customization: Adjust overboughtLevel and oversoldLevel to fine-tune sensitivity. Lower timeframes may benefit from tighter levels (e.g., 20 for oversold, 80 for overbought), while higher timeframes can use extreme levels (e.g., 1 and 99) for stronger reversals.
Timeframe Considerations
Higher Timeframes (Recommended): The indicator is optimized for higher timeframes (e.g., 1H, 4H, Daily) due to its reliance on predictive ranges and smoothed momentum, which perform best with less market noise. These timeframes typically yield more reliable reversal signals.
Lower Timeframes: The indicator can be used on lower timeframes (e.g., 5M, 15M), but signals may be noisier and require additional confirmation (e.g., from price action or other indicators). Extensive backtesting and parameter optimization (e.g., adjusting crsiLength, maLength, or mult) are recommended for lower timeframes.
Inputs
Contrarian RSI Length (crsiLength): Length for RSI momentum calculation (default: 5).
RSI MA Length (maLength): Length of the moving average applied to the RSI (default: 1, effectively no MA).
MA Type (maType): Choose from SMA, EMA, WMA, SMMA, or VWMA (default: SMA).
Overbought Level (overboughtLevel): Upper threshold for exit signals (default: 99).
Oversold Level (oversoldLevel): Lower threshold for entry signals (default: 1).
Plot Signals on Main Chart (plotOnChart): Toggle to display signals on the price chart or the indicator panel (default: false).
Plotted on Lower:
Plotted on Chart:
5 Levels Length (length5Levels): Length for predictive range calculation (default: 200).
Factor (mult): ATR multiplier for predictive ranges (default: 6.0).
5 Levels Timeframe (tf5Levels): Timeframe for predictive range calculation (default: chart timeframe).
Visuals
Contrarian RSI MA: Plotted as a yellow line, representing the smoothed Contrarian RSI with the applied moving average.
Overbought/Oversold Lines: Red line for overbought (default: 99) and green line for oversold (default: 1).
Signals: Blue circles for long entries, white circles for long exits. Signals can be plotted on the main chart (plotOnChart = true) or the indicator panel (plotOnChart = false).
Usage Notes
Use the indicator in conjunction with other tools (e.g., support/resistance, trendlines, or volume) to confirm signals.
Test extensively on your chosen timeframe and asset to optimize parameters like crsiLength, maLength, and mult.
Be cautious with lower timeframes, as false signals may occur due to market noise.
The indicator is designed for contrarian strategies, so it works best in markets with clear reversal patterns.
Disclaimer
This indicator is provided for educational and informational purposes only. Always conduct thorough backtesting and risk management before using any indicator in live trading. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred.
Cari dalam skrip untuk "想象图：箱线图+折线组合，横轴为国家，纵轴为响应指数（0-100），箱线显示均值±标准差，叠加红色虚线标注各国确诊高峰时间点"
Normalized Open InterestNormalized Open Interest (nOI) — Indicator Overview
What it does
Normalized Open Interest (nOI) transforms raw futures open-interest data into a 0-to-100 oscillator, so you can see at a glance whether participation is unusually high or low—similar in spirit to an RSI but applied to open interest. The script positions today’s OI inside a rolling high–low range and paints it with contextual colours.
Core logic
Data source – Loads the built-in “_OI” symbol that TradingView provides for the current market.
Rolling range – Looks back a user-defined number of bars (default 500) to find the highest and lowest OI in that window.
Normalization – Calculates
nOI = (OI – lowest) / (highest – lowest) × 100
so 0 equals the minimum of the window and 100 equals the maximum.
Visual cues – Plots the oscillator plus fixed horizontal levels at 70 % and 30 % (or your own numbers). The line turns teal above the upper level, red below the lower, and neutral grey in between.
User inputs
Window Length (bars) – How many candles the indicator scans for the high–low range; larger numbers smooth the curve, smaller numbers make it more reactive.
Upper Threshold (%) – Default 70. Anything above this marks potentially crowded or overheated interest.
Lower Threshold (%) – Default 30. Anything below this marks low or capitulating interest.
Practical uses
Spot extremes – Values above the upper line can warn that the long side is crowded; values below the lower line suggest disinterest or short-side crowding.
Confirm breakouts – A price breakout backed by a sharp rise in nOI signals genuine engagement.
Look for divergences – If price makes a new high but nOI does not, participation might be fading.
Combine with volume or RSI – Layer nOI with other studies to filter false signals.
Tips
On intraday charts for non-crypto symbols the script automatically fetches daily OI data to avoid gaps.
Adjust the thresholds to 80/20 or 60/40 to fit your market and risk preferences.
Alerts, shading, or additional signal logic can be added easily because the oscillator is already normalised.
Contrarian with 5 Levels5 Levels application was inspired and adapted from Predictive Ranges indicator developed by Lux Algo. So much credit to their work.
Indicator Description: Contrarian with 5 Levels
Overview
The "Contrarian with 5 Levels" indicator is a powerful tool designed for traders seeking to identify potential reversal points in the market by combining contrarian trading principles with dynamic support and resistance levels. This indicator overlays a Simple Moving Average (SMA) shadow and five adaptive price levels, integrating Institutional Concepts of Structure (ICT) such as Break of Structure (BOS) and Market Structure Shift (MSS) to provide clear buy and sell signals. It is ideal for traders looking to capitalize on overextended price movements, particularly on the daily timeframe, though it is adaptable to other timeframes with proper testing.
How It Works
The indicator operates on two core components:
Contrarian SMA Shadow: A shaded region between the SMA of highs and lows (default length: 100) acts as a dynamic zone to identify overbought or oversold conditions. When the price moves significantly outside this shadow, it signals potential exhaustion, aligning with contrarian trading principles.
Five Adaptive Levels: Using a modified ATR-based calculation, the indicator plots five key levels (two resistance, one average, and two support) that adjust dynamically to market volatility. These levels serve as critical zones for potential reversals.
ICT Structure Analysis: The indicator incorporates BOS and MSS logic to detect shifts in market structure, plotting bullish and bearish breaks with customizable colors for clarity.
Buy and sell signals are generated when the price crosses key levels while outside the SMA shadow, indicating potential reversal opportunities. The signals are visualized as small circles above (sell) or below (buy) the price bars, making them easy to interpret.
Mathematical Concepts
SMA Shadow: The indicator calculates the SMA of the highest highs and lowest lows over a user-defined period (default: 100). This creates a dynamic range that highlights extreme price movements, which contrarian traders often target for reversals.
Five Levels Calculation: The five levels are derived using a volatility-adjusted formula based on the Average True Range (ATR). The average level (central pivot) is calculated as a smoothed price, with two upper (resistance) and two lower (support) levels offset by a multiple of the ATR (default multiplier: 6.0). This adaptive approach ensures the levels remain relevant across varying market conditions.
ICT BOS/MSS Logic: The indicator identifies pivot highs and lows on a user-defined timeframe (default: daily) to detect structural breaks. A BOS occurs when the price breaks a prior pivot high (bullish) or low (bearish), while an MSS signals a shift in market direction, providing context for potential reversals.
Entry and Exit Rules
Buy Signal (Blue Dot Below Bar): Triggered when the closing price is below both the SMA shadow (smaLow) and the average level (avg), and the price crosses under either the first or second support level (prS1 or prS2). This suggests the market may be oversold, indicating a potential reversal upward.
Sell Signal (White Dot Above Bar): Triggered when the closing price is above both the SMA shadow (smaHigh) and the average level (avg), and the price crosses over either the first or second resistance level (prR1 or prR2). This suggests the market may be overbought, indicating a potential reversal downward.
Recommended Usage
This indicator is optimized for the daily timeframe, where it has been designed to capture significant reversal opportunities in trending or ranging markets. However, it can be adapted to other timeframes (e.g., 1H, 4H, 15M) with proper testing of settings such as SMA length, ATR multiplier, and structure timeframe. Users are encouraged to backtest and optimize parameters to suit their trading style and asset class.
Customization Options
SMA Length: Adjust the SMA period (default: 100) to control the sensitivity of the shadow.
Five Levels Length and Multiplier: Modify the length (default: 200) and ATR multiplier (default: 6.0) to fine-tune the support/resistance levels.
Timeframe Settings: Set separate timeframes for structure analysis and five levels to align with your trading strategy.
Color and Signal Display: Customize colors for BOS/MSS lines and toggle buy/sell signals on or off for a cleaner chart.
Why Use This Indicator?
The "Contrarian with 5 Levels" indicator combines the power of contrarian trading with dynamic levels and market structure analysis, offering a unique perspective for identifying high-probability reversal setups. Its intuitive design, customizable settings, and clear signal visualization make it suitable for both novice and experienced traders. Whether you're trading forex, stocks, or cryptocurrencies, this indicator provides a robust framework for spotting potential turning points in the market.
We hope you find the "Contrarian with 5 Levels" indicator a valuable addition to your trading toolkit! Happy trading!
Please leave feedback in the comments section.
Tensor Market Analysis Engine (TMAE)# Tensor Market Analysis Engine (TMAE)
## Advanced Multi-Dimensional Mathematical Analysis System
*Where Quantum Mathematics Meets Market Structure*
---
## 🎓 THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
The Tensor Market Analysis Engine represents a revolutionary synthesis of three cutting-edge mathematical frameworks that have never before been combined for comprehensive market analysis. This indicator transcends traditional technical analysis by implementing advanced mathematical concepts from quantum mechanics, information theory, and fractal geometry.
### 🌊 Multi-Dimensional Volatility with Jump Detection
**Hawkes Process Implementation:**
The TMAE employs a sophisticated Hawkes process approximation for detecting self-exciting market jumps. Unlike traditional volatility measures that treat price movements as independent events, the Hawkes process recognizes that market shocks cluster and exhibit memory effects.
**Mathematical Foundation:**
```
Intensity λ(t) = μ + Σ α(t - Tᵢ)
```
Where market jumps at times Tᵢ increase the probability of future jumps through the decay function α, controlled by the Hawkes Decay parameter (0.5-0.99).
**Mahalanobis Distance Calculation:**
The engine calculates volatility jumps using multi-dimensional Mahalanobis distance across up to 5 volatility dimensions:
- **Dimension 1:** Price volatility (standard deviation of returns)
- **Dimension 2:** Volume volatility (normalized volume fluctuations)
- **Dimension 3:** Range volatility (high-low spread variations)
- **Dimension 4:** Correlation volatility (price-volume relationship changes)
- **Dimension 5:** Microstructure volatility (intrabar positioning analysis)
This creates a volatility state vector that captures market behavior impossible to detect with traditional single-dimensional approaches.
### 📐 Hurst Exponent Regime Detection
**Fractal Market Hypothesis Integration:**
The TMAE implements advanced Rescaled Range (R/S) analysis to calculate the Hurst exponent in real-time, providing dynamic regime classification:
- **H > 0.6:** Trending (persistent) markets - momentum strategies optimal
- **H < 0.4:** Mean-reverting (anti-persistent) markets - contrarian strategies optimal
- **H ≈ 0.5:** Random walk markets - breakout strategies preferred
**Adaptive R/S Analysis:**
Unlike static implementations, the TMAE uses adaptive windowing that adjusts to market conditions:
```
H = log(R/S) / log(n)
```
Where R is the range of cumulative deviations and S is the standard deviation over period n.
**Dynamic Regime Classification:**
The system employs hysteresis to prevent regime flipping, requiring sustained Hurst values before regime changes are confirmed. This prevents false signals during transitional periods.
### 🔄 Transfer Entropy Analysis
**Information Flow Quantification:**
Transfer entropy measures the directional flow of information between price and volume, revealing lead-lag relationships that indicate future price movements:
```
TE(X→Y) = Σ p(yₜ₊₁, yₜ, xₜ) log
```
**Causality Detection:**
- **Volume → Price:** Indicates accumulation/distribution phases
- **Price → Volume:** Suggests retail participation or momentum chasing
- **Balanced Flow:** Market equilibrium or transition periods
The system analyzes multiple lag periods (2-20 bars) to capture both immediate and structural information flows.
---
## 🔧 COMPREHENSIVE INPUT SYSTEM
### Core Parameters Group
**Primary Analysis Window (10-100, Default: 50)**
The fundamental lookback period affecting all calculations. Optimization by timeframe:
- **1-5 minute charts:** 20-30 (rapid adaptation to micro-movements)
- **15 minute-1 hour:** 30-50 (balanced responsiveness and stability)
- **4 hour-daily:** 50-100 (smooth signals, reduced noise)
- **Asset-specific:** Cryptocurrency 20-35, Stocks 35-50, Forex 40-60
**Signal Sensitivity (0.1-2.0, Default: 0.7)**
Master control affecting all threshold calculations:
- **Conservative (0.3-0.6):** High-quality signals only, fewer false positives
- **Balanced (0.7-1.0):** Optimal risk-reward ratio for most trading styles
- **Aggressive (1.1-2.0):** Maximum signal frequency, requires careful filtering
**Signal Generation Mode:**
- **Aggressive:** Any component signals (highest frequency)
- **Confluence:** 2+ components agree (balanced approach)
- **Conservative:** All 3 components align (highest quality)
### Volatility Jump Detection Group
**Volatility Dimensions (2-5, Default: 3)**
Determines the mathematical space complexity:
- **2D:** Price + Volume volatility (suitable for clean markets)
- **3D:** + Range volatility (optimal for most conditions)
- **4D:** + Correlation volatility (advanced multi-asset analysis)
- **5D:** + Microstructure volatility (maximum sensitivity)
**Jump Detection Threshold (1.5-4.0σ, Default: 3.0σ)**
Standard deviations required for volatility jump classification:
- **Cryptocurrency:** 2.0-2.5σ (naturally volatile)
- **Stock Indices:** 2.5-3.0σ (moderate volatility)
- **Forex Major Pairs:** 3.0-3.5σ (typically stable)
- **Commodities:** 2.0-3.0σ (varies by commodity)
**Jump Clustering Decay (0.5-0.99, Default: 0.85)**
Hawkes process memory parameter:
- **0.5-0.7:** Fast decay (jumps treated as independent)
- **0.8-0.9:** Moderate clustering (realistic market behavior)
- **0.95-0.99:** Strong clustering (crisis/event-driven markets)
### Hurst Exponent Analysis Group
**Calculation Method Options:**
- **Classic R/S:** Original Rescaled Range (fast, simple)
- **Adaptive R/S:** Dynamic windowing (recommended for trading)
- **DFA:** Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (best for noisy data)
**Trending Threshold (0.55-0.8, Default: 0.60)**
Hurst value defining persistent market behavior:
- **0.55-0.60:** Weak trend persistence
- **0.65-0.70:** Clear trending behavior
- **0.75-0.80:** Strong momentum regimes
**Mean Reversion Threshold (0.2-0.45, Default: 0.40)**
Hurst value defining anti-persistent behavior:
- **0.35-0.45:** Weak mean reversion
- **0.25-0.35:** Clear ranging behavior
- **0.15-0.25:** Strong reversion tendency
### Transfer Entropy Parameters Group
**Information Flow Analysis:**
- **Price-Volume:** Classic flow analysis for accumulation/distribution
- **Price-Volatility:** Risk flow analysis for sentiment shifts
- **Multi-Timeframe:** Cross-timeframe causality detection
**Maximum Lag (2-20, Default: 5)**
Causality detection window:
- **2-5 bars:** Immediate causality (scalping)
- **5-10 bars:** Short-term flow (day trading)
- **10-20 bars:** Structural flow (swing trading)
**Significance Threshold (0.05-0.3, Default: 0.15)**
Minimum entropy for signal generation:
- **0.05-0.10:** Detect subtle information flows
- **0.10-0.20:** Clear causality only
- **0.20-0.30:** Very strong flows only
---
## 🎨 ADVANCED VISUAL SYSTEM
### Tensor Volatility Field Visualization
**Five-Layer Resonance Bands:**
The tensor field creates dynamic support/resistance zones that expand and contract based on mathematical field strength:
- **Core Layer (Purple):** Primary tensor field with highest intensity
- **Layer 2 (Neutral):** Secondary mathematical resonance
- **Layer 3 (Info Blue):** Tertiary harmonic frequencies
- **Layer 4 (Warning Gold):** Outer field boundaries
- **Layer 5 (Success Green):** Maximum field extension
**Field Strength Calculation:**
```
Field Strength = min(3.0, Mahalanobis Distance × Tensor Intensity)
```
The field amplitude adjusts to ATR and mathematical distance, creating dynamic zones that respond to market volatility.
**Radiation Line Network:**
During active tensor states, the system projects directional radiation lines showing field energy distribution:
- **8 Directional Rays:** Complete angular coverage
- **Tapering Segments:** Progressive transparency for natural visual flow
- **Pulse Effects:** Enhanced visualization during volatility jumps
### Dimensional Portal System
**Portal Mathematics:**
Dimensional portals visualize regime transitions using category theory principles:
- **Green Portals (◉):** Trending regime detection (appear below price for support)
- **Red Portals (◎):** Mean-reverting regime (appear above price for resistance)
- **Yellow Portals (○):** Random walk regime (neutral positioning)
**Tensor Trail Effects:**
Each portal generates 8 trailing particles showing mathematical momentum:
- **Large Particles (●):** Strong mathematical signal
- **Medium Particles (◦):** Moderate signal strength
- **Small Particles (·):** Weak signal continuation
- **Micro Particles (˙):** Signal dissipation
### Information Flow Streams
**Particle Stream Visualization:**
Transfer entropy creates flowing particle streams indicating information direction:
- **Upward Streams:** Volume leading price (accumulation phases)
- **Downward Streams:** Price leading volume (distribution phases)
- **Stream Density:** Proportional to information flow strength
**15-Particle Evolution:**
Each stream contains 15 particles with progressive sizing and transparency, creating natural flow visualization that makes information transfer immediately apparent.
### Fractal Matrix Grid System
**Multi-Timeframe Fractal Levels:**
The system calculates and displays fractal highs/lows across five Fibonacci periods:
- **8-Period:** Short-term fractal structure
- **13-Period:** Intermediate-term patterns
- **21-Period:** Primary swing levels
- **34-Period:** Major structural levels
- **55-Period:** Long-term fractal boundaries
**Triple-Layer Visualization:**
Each fractal level uses three-layer rendering:
- **Shadow Layer:** Widest, darkest foundation (width 5)
- **Glow Layer:** Medium white core line (width 3)
- **Tensor Layer:** Dotted mathematical overlay (width 1)
**Intelligent Labeling System:**
Smart spacing prevents label overlap using ATR-based minimum distances. Labels include:
- **Fractal Period:** Time-based identification
- **Topological Class:** Mathematical complexity rating (0, I, II, III)
- **Price Level:** Exact fractal price
- **Mahalanobis Distance:** Current mathematical field strength
- **Hurst Exponent:** Current regime classification
- **Anomaly Indicators:** Visual strength representations (○ ◐ ● ⚡)
### Wick Pressure Analysis
**Rejection Level Mathematics:**
The system analyzes candle wick patterns to project future pressure zones:
- **Upper Wick Analysis:** Identifies selling pressure and resistance zones
- **Lower Wick Analysis:** Identifies buying pressure and support zones
- **Pressure Projection:** Extends lines forward based on mathematical probability
**Multi-Layer Glow Effects:**
Wick pressure lines use progressive transparency (1-8 layers) creating natural glow effects that make pressure zones immediately visible without cluttering the chart.
### Enhanced Regime Background
**Dynamic Intensity Mapping:**
Background colors reflect mathematical regime strength:
- **Deep Transparency (98% alpha):** Subtle regime indication
- **Pulse Intensity:** Based on regime strength calculation
- **Color Coding:** Green (trending), Red (mean-reverting), Neutral (random)
**Smoothing Integration:**
Regime changes incorporate 10-bar smoothing to prevent background flicker while maintaining responsiveness to genuine regime shifts.
### Color Scheme System
**Six Professional Themes:**
- **Dark (Default):** Professional trading environment optimization
- **Light:** High ambient light conditions
- **Classic:** Traditional technical analysis appearance
- **Neon:** High-contrast visibility for active trading
- **Neutral:** Minimal distraction focus
- **Bright:** Maximum visibility for complex setups
Each theme maintains mathematical accuracy while optimizing visual clarity for different trading environments and personal preferences.
---
## 📊 INSTITUTIONAL-GRADE DASHBOARD
### Tensor Field Status Section
**Field Strength Display:**
Real-time Mahalanobis distance calculation with dynamic emoji indicators:
- **⚡ (Lightning):** Extreme field strength (>1.5× threshold)
- **● (Solid Circle):** Strong field activity (>1.0× threshold)
- **○ (Open Circle):** Normal field state
**Signal Quality Rating:**
Democratic algorithm assessment:
- **ELITE:** All 3 components aligned (highest probability)
- **STRONG:** 2 components aligned (good probability)
- **GOOD:** 1 component active (moderate probability)
- **WEAK:** No clear component signals
**Threshold and Anomaly Monitoring:**
- **Threshold Display:** Current mathematical threshold setting
- **Anomaly Level (0-100%):** Combined volatility and volume spike measurement
- **>70%:** High anomaly (red warning)
- **30-70%:** Moderate anomaly (orange caution)
- **<30%:** Normal conditions (green confirmation)
### Tensor State Analysis Section
**Mathematical State Classification:**
- **↑ BULL (Tensor State +1):** Trending regime with bullish bias
- **↓ BEAR (Tensor State -1):** Mean-reverting regime with bearish bias
- **◈ SUPER (Tensor State 0):** Random walk regime (neutral)
**Visual State Gauge:**
Five-circle progression showing tensor field polarity:
- **🟢🟢🟢⚪⚪:** Strong bullish mathematical alignment
- **⚪⚪🟡⚪⚪:** Neutral/transitional state
- **⚪⚪🔴🔴🔴:** Strong bearish mathematical alignment
**Trend Direction and Phase Analysis:**
- **📈 BULL / 📉 BEAR / ➡️ NEUTRAL:** Primary trend classification
- **🌪️ CHAOS:** Extreme information flow (>2.0 flow strength)
- **⚡ ACTIVE:** Strong information flow (1.0-2.0 flow strength)
- **😴 CALM:** Low information flow (<1.0 flow strength)
### Trading Signals Section
**Real-Time Signal Status:**
- **🟢 ACTIVE / ⚪ INACTIVE:** Long signal availability
- **🔴 ACTIVE / ⚪ INACTIVE:** Short signal availability
- **Components (X/3):** Active algorithmic components
- **Mode Display:** Current signal generation mode
**Signal Strength Visualization:**
Color-coded component count:
- **Green:** 3/3 components (maximum confidence)
- **Aqua:** 2/3 components (good confidence)
- **Orange:** 1/3 components (moderate confidence)
- **Gray:** 0/3 components (no signals)
### Performance Metrics Section
**Win Rate Monitoring:**
Estimated win rates based on signal quality with emoji indicators:
- **🔥 (Fire):** ≥60% estimated win rate
- **👍 (Thumbs Up):** 45-59% estimated win rate
- **⚠️ (Warning):** <45% estimated win rate
**Mathematical Metrics:**
- **Hurst Exponent:** Real-time fractal dimension (0.000-1.000)
- **Information Flow:** Volume/price leading indicators
- **📊 VOL:** Volume leading price (accumulation/distribution)
- **💰 PRICE:** Price leading volume (momentum/speculation)
- **➖ NONE:** Balanced information flow
- **Volatility Classification:**
- **🔥 HIGH:** Above 1.5× jump threshold
- **📊 NORM:** Normal volatility range
- **😴 LOW:** Below 0.5× jump threshold
### Market Structure Section (Large Dashboard)
**Regime Classification:**
- **📈 TREND:** Hurst >0.6, momentum strategies optimal
- **🔄 REVERT:** Hurst <0.4, contrarian strategies optimal
- **🎲 RANDOM:** Hurst ≈0.5, breakout strategies preferred
**Mathematical Field Analysis:**
- **Dimensions:** Current volatility space complexity (2D-5D)
- **Hawkes λ (Lambda):** Self-exciting jump intensity (0.00-1.00)
- **Jump Status:** 🚨 JUMP (active) / ✅ NORM (normal)
### Settings Summary Section (Large Dashboard)
**Active Configuration Display:**
- **Sensitivity:** Current master sensitivity setting
- **Lookback:** Primary analysis window
- **Theme:** Active color scheme
- **Method:** Hurst calculation method (Classic R/S, Adaptive R/S, DFA)
**Dashboard Sizing Options:**
- **Small:** Essential metrics only (mobile/small screens)
- **Normal:** Balanced information density (standard desktop)
- **Large:** Maximum detail (multi-monitor setups)
**Position Options:**
- **Top Right:** Standard placement (avoids price action)
- **Top Left:** Wide chart optimization
- **Bottom Right:** Recent price focus (scalping)
- **Bottom Left:** Maximum price visibility (swing trading)
---
## 🎯 SIGNAL GENERATION LOGIC
### Multi-Component Convergence System
**Component Signal Architecture:**
The TMAE generates signals through sophisticated component analysis rather than simple threshold crossing:
**Volatility Component:**
- **Jump Detection:** Mahalanobis distance threshold breach
- **Hawkes Intensity:** Self-exciting process activation (>0.2)
- **Multi-dimensional:** Considers all volatility dimensions simultaneously
**Hurst Regime Component:**
- **Trending Markets:** Price above SMA-20 with positive momentum
- **Mean-Reverting Markets:** Price at Bollinger Band extremes
- **Random Markets:** Bollinger squeeze breakouts with directional confirmation
**Transfer Entropy Component:**
- **Volume Leadership:** Information flow from volume to price
- **Volume Spike:** Volume 110%+ above 20-period average
- **Flow Significance:** Above entropy threshold with directional bias
### Democratic Signal Weighting
**Signal Mode Implementation:**
- **Aggressive Mode:** Any single component triggers signal
- **Confluence Mode:** Minimum 2 components must agree
- **Conservative Mode:** All 3 components must align
**Momentum Confirmation:**
All signals require momentum confirmation:
- **Long Signals:** RSI >50 AND price >EMA-9
- **Short Signals:** RSI <50 AND price 0.6):**
- **Increase Sensitivity:** Catch momentum continuation
- **Lower Mean Reversion Threshold:** Avoid counter-trend signals
- **Emphasize Volume Leadership:** Institutional accumulation/distribution
- **Tensor Field Focus:** Use expansion for trend continuation
- **Signal Mode:** Aggressive or Confluence for trend following
**Range-Bound Markets (Hurst <0.4):**
- **Decrease Sensitivity:** Avoid false breakouts
- **Lower Trending Threshold:** Quick regime recognition
- **Focus on Price Leadership:** Retail sentiment extremes
- **Fractal Grid Emphasis:** Support/resistance trading
- **Signal Mode:** Conservative for high-probability reversals
**Volatile Markets (High Jump Frequency):**
- **Increase Hawkes Decay:** Recognize event clustering
- **Higher Jump Threshold:** Avoid noise signals
- **Maximum Dimensions:** Capture full volatility complexity
- **Reduce Position Sizing:** Risk management adaptation
- **Enhanced Visuals:** Maximum information for rapid decisions
**Low Volatility Markets (Low Jump Frequency):**
- **Decrease Jump Threshold:** Capture subtle movements
- **Lower Hawkes Decay:** Treat moves as independent
- **Reduce Dimensions:** Simplify analysis
- **Increase Position Sizing:** Capitalize on compressed volatility
- **Minimal Visuals:** Reduce distraction in quiet markets
---
## 🚀 ADVANCED TRADING STRATEGIES
### The Mathematical Convergence Method
**Entry Protocol:**
1. **Fractal Grid Approach:** Monitor price approaching significant fractal levels
2. **Tensor Field Confirmation:** Verify field expansion supporting direction
3. **Portal Signal:** Wait for dimensional portal appearance
4. **ELITE/STRONG Quality:** Only trade highest quality mathematical signals
5. **Component Consensus:** Confirm 2+ components agree in Confluence mode
**Example Implementation:**
- Price approaching 21-period fractal high
- Tensor field expanding upward (bullish mathematical alignment)
- Green portal appears below price (trending regime confirmation)
- ELITE quality signal with 3/3 components active
- Enter long position with stop below fractal level
**Risk Management:**
- **Stop Placement:** Below/above fractal level that generated signal
- **Position Sizing:** Based on Mahalanobis distance (higher distance = smaller size)
- **Profit Targets:** Next fractal level or tensor field resistance
### The Regime Transition Strategy
**Regime Change Detection:**
1. **Monitor Hurst Exponent:** Watch for persistent moves above/below thresholds
2. **Portal Color Change:** Regime transitions show different portal colors
3. **Background Intensity:** Increasing regime background intensity
4. **Mathematical Confirmation:** Wait for regime confirmation (hysteresis)
**Trading Implementation:**
- **Trending Transitions:** Trade momentum breakouts, follow trend
- **Mean Reversion Transitions:** Trade range boundaries, fade extremes
- **Random Transitions:** Trade breakouts with tight stops
**Advanced Techniques:**
- **Multi-Timeframe:** Confirm regime on higher timeframe
- **Early Entry:** Enter on regime transition rather than confirmation
- **Regime Strength:** Larger positions during strong regime signals
### The Information Flow Momentum Strategy
**Flow Detection Protocol:**
1. **Monitor Transfer Entropy:** Watch for significant information flow shifts
2. **Volume Leadership:** Strong edge when volume leads price
3. **Flow Acceleration:** Increasing flow strength indicates momentum
4. **Directional Confirmation:** Ensure flow aligns with intended trade direction
**Entry Signals:**
- **Volume → Price Flow:** Enter during accumulation/distribution phases
- **Price → Volume Flow:** Enter on momentum confirmation breaks
- **Flow Reversal:** Counter-trend entries when flow reverses
**Optimization:**
- **Scalping:** Use immediate flow detection (2-5 bar lag)
- **Swing Trading:** Use structural flow (10-20 bar lag)
- **Multi-Asset:** Compare flow between correlated assets
### The Tensor Field Expansion Strategy
**Field Mathematics:**
The tensor field expansion indicates mathematical pressure building in market structure:
**Expansion Phases:**
1. **Compression:** Field contracts, volatility decreases
2. **Tension Building:** Mathematical pressure accumulates
3. **Expansion:** Field expands rapidly with directional movement
4. **Resolution:** Field stabilizes at new equilibrium
**Trading Applications:**
- **Compression Trading:** Prepare for breakout during field contraction
- **Expansion Following:** Trade direction of field expansion
- **Reversion Trading:** Fade extreme field expansion
- **Multi-Dimensional:** Consider all field layers for confirmation
### The Hawkes Process Event Strategy
**Self-Exciting Jump Trading:**
Understanding that market shocks cluster and create follow-on opportunities:
**Jump Sequence Analysis:**
1. **Initial Jump:** First volatility jump detected
2. **Clustering Phase:** Hawkes intensity remains elevated
3. **Follow-On Opportunities:** Additional jumps more likely
4. **Decay Period:** Intensity gradually decreases
**Implementation:**
- **Jump Confirmation:** Wait for mathematical jump confirmation
- **Direction Assessment:** Use other components for direction
- **Clustering Trades:** Trade subsequent moves during high intensity
- **Decay Exit:** Exit positions as Hawkes intensity decays
### The Fractal Confluence System
**Multi-Timeframe Fractal Analysis:**
Combining fractal levels across different periods for high-probability zones:
**Confluence Zones:**
- **Double Confluence:** 2 fractal levels align
- **Triple Confluence:** 3+ fractal levels cluster
- **Mathematical Confirmation:** Tensor field supports the level
- **Information Flow:** Transfer entropy confirms direction
**Trading Protocol:**
1. **Identify Confluence:** Find 2+ fractal levels within 1 ATR
2. **Mathematical Support:** Verify tensor field alignment
3. **Signal Quality:** Wait for STRONG or ELITE signal
4. **Risk Definition:** Use fractal level for stop placement
5. **Profit Targeting:** Next major fractal confluence zone
---
## ⚠️ COMPREHENSIVE RISK MANAGEMENT
### Mathematical Position Sizing
**Mahalanobis Distance Integration:**
Position size should inversely correlate with mathematical field strength:
```
Position Size = Base Size × (Threshold / Mahalanobis Distance)
```
**Risk Scaling Matrix:**
- **Low Field Strength (<2.0):** Standard position sizing
- **Moderate Field Strength (2.0-3.0):** 75% position sizing
- **High Field Strength (3.0-4.0):** 50% position sizing
- **Extreme Field Strength (>4.0):** 25% position sizing or no trade
### Signal Quality Risk Adjustment
**Quality-Based Position Sizing:**
- **ELITE Signals:** 100% of planned position size
- **STRONG Signals:** 75% of planned position size
- **GOOD Signals:** 50% of planned position size
- **WEAK Signals:** No position or paper trading only
**Component Agreement Scaling:**
- **3/3 Components:** Full position size
- **2/3 Components:** 75% position size
- **1/3 Components:** 50% position size or skip trade
### Regime-Adaptive Risk Management
**Trending Market Risk:**
- **Wider Stops:** Allow for trend continuation
- **Trend Following:** Trade with regime direction
- **Higher Position Size:** Trend probability advantage
- **Momentum Stops:** Trail stops based on momentum indicators
**Mean-Reverting Market Risk:**
- **Tighter Stops:** Quick exits on trend continuation
- **Contrarian Positioning:** Trade against extremes
- **Smaller Position Size:** Higher reversal failure rate
- **Level-Based Stops:** Use fractal levels for stops
**Random Market Risk:**
- **Breakout Focus:** Trade only clear breakouts
- **Tight Initial Stops:** Quick exit if breakout fails
- **Reduced Frequency:** Skip marginal setups
- **Range-Based Targets:** Profit targets at range boundaries
### Volatility-Adaptive Risk Controls
**High Volatility Periods:**
- **Reduced Position Size:** Account for wider price swings
- **Wider Stops:** Avoid noise-based exits
- **Lower Frequency:** Skip marginal setups
- **Faster Exits:** Take profits more quickly
**Low Volatility Periods:**
- **Standard Position Size:** Normal risk parameters
- **Tighter Stops:** Take advantage of compressed ranges
- **Higher Frequency:** Trade more setups
- **Extended Targets:** Allow for compressed volatility expansion
### Multi-Timeframe Risk Alignment
**Higher Timeframe Trend:**
- **With Trend:** Standard or increased position size
- **Against Trend:** Reduced position size or skip
- **Neutral Trend:** Standard position size with tight management
**Risk Hierarchy:**
1. **Primary:** Current timeframe signal quality
2. **Secondary:** Higher timeframe trend alignment
3. **Tertiary:** Mathematical field strength
4. **Quaternary:** Market regime classification
---
## 📚 EDUCATIONAL VALUE AND MATHEMATICAL CONCEPTS
### Advanced Mathematical Concepts
**Tensor Analysis in Markets:**
The TMAE introduces traders to tensor analysis, a branch of mathematics typically reserved for physics and advanced engineering. Tensors provide a framework for understanding multi-dimensional market relationships that scalar and vector analysis cannot capture.
**Information Theory Applications:**
Transfer entropy implementation teaches traders about information flow in markets, a concept from information theory that quantifies directional causality between variables. This provides intuition about market microstructure and participant behavior.
**Fractal Geometry in Trading:**
The Hurst exponent calculation exposes traders to fractal geometry concepts, helping understand that markets exhibit self-similar patterns across multiple timeframes. This mathematical insight transforms how traders view market structure.
**Stochastic Process Theory:**
The Hawkes process implementation introduces concepts from stochastic process theory, specifically self-exciting point processes. This provides mathematical framework for understanding why market events cluster and exhibit memory effects.
### Learning Progressive Complexity
**Beginner Mathematical Concepts:**
- **Volatility Dimensions:** Understanding multi-dimensional analysis
- **Regime Classification:** Learning market personality types
- **Signal Democracy:** Algorithmic consensus building
- **Visual Mathematics:** Interpreting mathematical concepts visually
**Intermediate Mathematical Applications:**
- **Mahalanobis Distance:** Statistical distance in multi-dimensional space
- **Rescaled Range Analysis:** Fractal dimension measurement
- **Information Entropy:** Quantifying uncertainty and causality
- **Field Theory:** Understanding mathematical fields in market context
**Advanced Mathematical Integration:**
- **Tensor Field Dynamics:** Multi-dimensional market force analysis
- **Stochastic Self-Excitation:** Event clustering and memory effects
- **Categorical Composition:** Mathematical signal combination theory
- **Topological Market Analysis:** Understanding market shape and connectivity
### Practical Mathematical Intuition
**Developing Market Mathematics Intuition:**
The TMAE serves as a bridge between abstract mathematical concepts and practical trading applications. Traders develop intuitive understanding of:
- **How markets exhibit mathematical structure beneath apparent randomness**
- **Why multi-dimensional analysis reveals patterns invisible to single-variable approaches**
- **How information flows through markets in measurable, predictable ways**
- **Why mathematical models provide probabilistic edges rather than certainties**
---
## 🔬 IMPLEMENTATION AND OPTIMIZATION
### Getting Started Protocol
**Phase 1: Observation (Week 1)**
1. **Apply with defaults:** Use standard settings on your primary trading timeframe
2. **Study visual elements:** Learn to interpret tensor fields, portals, and streams
3. **Monitor dashboard:** Observe how metrics change with market conditions
4. **No trading:** Focus entirely on pattern recognition and understanding
**Phase 2: Pattern Recognition (Week 2-3)**
1. **Identify signal patterns:** Note what market conditions produce different signal qualities
2. **Regime correlation:** Observe how Hurst regimes affect signal performance
3. **Visual confirmation:** Learn to read tensor field expansion and portal signals
4. **Component analysis:** Understand which components drive signals in different markets
**Phase 3: Parameter Optimization (Week 4-5)**
1. **Asset-specific tuning:** Adjust parameters for your specific trading instrument
2. **Timeframe optimization:** Fine-tune for your preferred trading timeframe
3. **Sensitivity adjustment:** Balance signal frequency with quality
4. **Visual customization:** Optimize colors and intensity for your trading environment
**Phase 4: Live Implementation (Week 6+)**
1. **Paper trading:** Test signals with hypothetical trades
2. **Small position sizing:** Begin with minimal risk during learning phase
3. **Performance tracking:** Monitor actual vs. expected signal performance
4. **Continuous optimization:** Refine settings based on real performance data
### Performance Monitoring System
**Signal Quality Tracking:**
- **ELITE Signal Win Rate:** Track highest quality signals separately
- **Component Performance:** Monitor which components provide best signals
- **Regime Performance:** Analyze performance across different market regimes
- **Timeframe Analysis:** Compare performance across different session times
**Mathematical Metric Correlation:**
- **Field Strength vs. Performance:** Higher field strength should correlate with better performance
- **Component Agreement vs. Win Rate:** More component agreement should improve win rates
- **Regime Alignment vs. Success:** Trading with mathematical regime should outperform
### Continuous Optimization Process
**Monthly Review Protocol:**
1. **Performance Analysis:** Review win rates, profit factors, and maximum drawdown
2. **Parameter Assessment:** Evaluate if current settings remain optimal
3. **Market Adaptation:** Adjust for changes in market character or volatility
4. **Component Weighting:** Consider if certain components should receive more/less emphasis
**Quarterly Deep Analysis:**
1. **Mathematical Model Validation:** Verify that mathematical relationships remain valid
2. **Regime Distribution:** Analyze time spent in different market regimes
3. **Signal Evolution:** Track how signal characteristics change over time
4. **Correlation Analysis:** Monitor correlations between different mathematical components
---
## 🌟 UNIQUE INNOVATIONS AND CONTRIBUTIONS
### Revolutionary Mathematical Integration
**First-Ever Implementations:**
1. **Multi-Dimensional Volatility Tensor:** First indicator to implement true tensor analysis for market volatility
2. **Real-Time Hawkes Process:** First trading implementation of self-exciting point processes
3. **Transfer Entropy Trading Signals:** First practical application of information theory for trade generation
4. **Democratic Component Voting:** First algorithmic consensus system for signal generation
5. **Fractal-Projected Signal Quality:** First system to predict signal quality at future price levels
### Advanced Visualization Innovations
**Mathematical Visualization Breakthroughs:**
- **Tensor Field Radiation:** Visual representation of mathematical field energy
- **Dimensional Portal System:** Category theory visualization for regime transitions
- **Information Flow Streams:** Real-time visual display of market information transfer
- **Multi-Layer Fractal Grid:** Intelligent spacing and projection system
- **Regime Intensity Mapping:** Dynamic background showing mathematical regime strength
### Practical Trading Innovations
**Trading System Advances:**
- **Quality-Weighted Signal Generation:** Signals rated by mathematical confidence
- **Regime-Adaptive Strategy Selection:** Automatic strategy optimization based on market personality
- **Anti-Spam Signal Protection:** Mathematical prevention of signal clustering
- **Component Performance Tracking:** Real-time monitoring of algorithmic component success
- **Field-Strength Position Sizing:** Mathematical volatility integration for risk management
---
## ⚖️ RESPONSIBLE USAGE AND LIMITATIONS
### Mathematical Model Limitations
**Understanding Model Boundaries:**
While the TMAE implements sophisticated mathematical concepts, traders must understand fundamental limitations:
- **Markets Are Not Purely Mathematical:** Human psychology, news events, and fundamental factors create unpredictable elements
- **Past Performance Limitations:** Mathematical relationships that worked historically may not persist indefinitely
- **Model Risk:** Complex models can fail during unprecedented market conditions
- **Overfitting Potential:** Highly optimized parameters may not generalize to future market conditions
### Proper Implementation Guidelines
**Risk Management Requirements:**
- **Never Risk More Than 2% Per Trade:** Regardless of signal quality
- **Diversification Mandatory:** Don't rely solely on mathematical signals
- **Position Sizing Discipline:** Use mathematical field strength for sizing, not confidence
- **Stop Loss Non-Negotiable:** Every trade must have predefined risk parameters
**Realistic Expectations:**
- **Mathematical Edge, Not Certainty:** The indicator provides probabilistic advantages, not guaranteed outcomes
- **Learning Curve Required:** Complex mathematical concepts require time to master
- **Market Adaptation Necessary:** Parameters must evolve with changing market conditions
- **Continuous Education Important:** Understanding underlying mathematics improves application
### Ethical Trading Considerations
**Market Impact Awareness:**
- **Information Asymmetry:** Advanced mathematical analysis may provide advantages over other market participants
- **Position Size Responsibility:** Large positions based on mathematical signals can impact market structure
- **Sharing Knowledge:** Consider educational contributions to trading community
- **Fair Market Participation:** Use mathematical advantages responsibly within market framework
### Professional Development Path
**Skill Development Sequence:**
1. **Basic Mathematical Literacy:** Understand fundamental concepts before advanced application
2. **Risk Management Mastery:** Develop disciplined risk control before relying on complex signals
3. **Market Psychology Understanding:** Combine mathematical analysis with behavioral market insights
4. **Continuous Learning:** Stay updated on mathematical finance developments and market evolution
---
## 🔮 CONCLUSION
The Tensor Market Analysis Engine represents a quantum leap forward in technical analysis, successfully bridging the gap between advanced pure mathematics and practical trading applications. By integrating multi-dimensional volatility analysis, fractal market theory, and information flow dynamics, the TMAE reveals market structure invisible to conventional analysis while maintaining visual clarity and practical usability.
### Mathematical Innovation Legacy
This indicator establishes new paradigms in technical analysis:
- **Tensor analysis for market volatility understanding**
- **Stochastic self-excitation for event clustering prediction**
- **Information theory for causality-based trade generation**
- **Democratic algorithmic consensus for signal quality enhancement**
- **Mathematical field visualization for intuitive market understanding**
### Practical Trading Revolution
Beyond mathematical innovation, the TMAE transforms practical trading:
- **Quality-rated signals replace binary buy/sell decisions**
- **Regime-adaptive strategies automatically optimize for market personality**
- **Multi-dimensional risk management integrates mathematical volatility measures**
- **Visual mathematical concepts make complex analysis immediately interpretable**
- **Educational value creates lasting improvement in trading understanding**
### Future-Proof Design
The mathematical foundations ensure lasting relevance:
- **Universal mathematical principles transcend market evolution**
- **Multi-dimensional analysis adapts to new market structures**
- **Regime detection automatically adjusts to changing market personalities**
- **Component democracy allows for future algorithmic additions**
- **Mathematical visualization scales with increasing market complexity**
### Commitment to Excellence
The TMAE represents more than an indicator—it embodies a philosophy of bringing rigorous mathematical analysis to trading while maintaining practical utility and visual elegance. Every component, from the multi-dimensional tensor fields to the democratic signal generation, reflects a commitment to mathematical accuracy, trading practicality, and educational value.
### Trading with Mathematical Precision
In an era where markets grow increasingly complex and computational, the TMAE provides traders with mathematical tools previously available only to institutional quantitative research teams. Yet unlike academic mathematical models, the TMAE translates complex concepts into intuitive visual representations and practical trading signals.
By combining the mathematical rigor of tensor analysis, the statistical power of multi-dimensional volatility modeling, and the information-theoretic insights of transfer entropy, traders gain unprecedented insight into market structure and dynamics.
### Final Perspective
Markets, like nature, exhibit profound mathematical beauty beneath apparent chaos. The Tensor Market Analysis Engine serves as a mathematical lens that reveals this hidden order, transforming how traders perceive and interact with market structure.
Through mathematical precision, visual elegance, and practical utility, the TMAE empowers traders to see beyond the noise and trade with the confidence that comes from understanding the mathematical principles governing market behavior.
Trade with mathematical insight. Trade with the power of tensors. Trade with the TMAE.
*"In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them." - John von Neumann*
*With the TMAE, mathematical market understanding becomes not just possible, but intuitive.*
— Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
Advanced Fed Decision Forecast Model (AFDFM)The Advanced Fed Decision Forecast Model (AFDFM) represents a novel quantitative framework for predicting Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions through multi-factor fundamental analysis. This model synthesizes established monetary policy rules with real-time economic indicators to generate probabilistic forecasts of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions. Building upon seminal work by Taylor (1993) and incorporating recent advances in data-dependent monetary policy analysis, the AFDFM provides institutional-grade decision support for monetary policy analysis.
## 1. Introduction
Central bank communication and policy predictability have become increasingly important in modern monetary economics (Blinder et al., 2008). The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, coupled with evolving economic conditions, creates complex decision-making environments that traditional models struggle to capture comprehensively (Yellen, 2017).
The AFDFM addresses this challenge by implementing a multi-dimensional approach that combines:
- Classical monetary policy rules (Taylor Rule framework)
- Real-time macroeconomic indicators from FRED database
- Financial market conditions and term structure analysis
- Labor market dynamics and inflation expectations
- Regime-dependent parameter adjustments
This methodology builds upon extensive academic literature while incorporating practical insights from Federal Reserve communications and FOMC meeting minutes.
## 2. Literature Review and Theoretical Foundation
### 2.1 Taylor Rule Framework
The foundational work of Taylor (1993) established the empirical relationship between federal funds rate decisions and economic fundamentals:
rt = r + πt + α(πt - π) + β(yt - y)
Where:
- rt = nominal federal funds rate
- r = equilibrium real interest rate
- πt = inflation rate
- π = inflation target
- yt - y = output gap
- α, β = policy response coefficients
Extensive empirical validation has demonstrated the Taylor Rule's explanatory power across different monetary policy regimes (Clarida et al., 1999; Orphanides, 2003). Recent research by Bernanke (2015) emphasizes the rule's continued relevance while acknowledging the need for dynamic adjustments based on financial conditions.
### 2.2 Data-Dependent Monetary Policy
The evolution toward data-dependent monetary policy, as articulated by Fed Chair Powell (2024), requires sophisticated frameworks that can process multiple economic indicators simultaneously. Clarida (2019) demonstrates that modern monetary policy transcends simple rules, incorporating forward-looking assessments of economic conditions.
### 2.3 Financial Conditions and Monetary Transmission
The Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) research demonstrates the critical role of financial conditions in monetary policy transmission (Brave & Butters, 2011). Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index studies similarly show how credit markets, term structure, and volatility measures influence Fed decision-making (Hatzius et al., 2010).
### 2.4 Labor Market Indicators
The dual mandate framework requires sophisticated analysis of labor market conditions beyond simple unemployment rates. Daly et al. (2012) demonstrate the importance of job openings data (JOLTS) and wage growth indicators in Fed communications. Recent research by Aaronson et al. (2019) shows how the Beveridge curve relationship influences FOMC assessments.
## 3. Methodology
### 3.1 Model Architecture
The AFDFM employs a six-component scoring system that aggregates fundamental indicators into a composite Fed decision index:
#### Component 1: Taylor Rule Analysis (Weight: 25%)
Implements real-time Taylor Rule calculation using FRED data:
- Core PCE inflation (Fed's preferred measure)
- Unemployment gap proxy for output gap
- Dynamic neutral rate estimation
- Regime-dependent parameter adjustments
#### Component 2: Employment Conditions (Weight: 20%)
Multi-dimensional labor market assessment:
- Unemployment gap relative to NAIRU estimates
- JOLTS job openings momentum
- Average hourly earnings growth
- Beveridge curve position analysis
#### Component 3: Financial Conditions (Weight: 18%)
Comprehensive financial market evaluation:
- Chicago Fed NFCI real-time data
- Yield curve shape and term structure
- Credit growth and lending conditions
- Market volatility and risk premia
#### Component 4: Inflation Expectations (Weight: 15%)
Forward-looking inflation analysis:
- TIPS breakeven inflation rates (5Y, 10Y)
- Market-based inflation expectations
- Inflation momentum and persistence measures
- Phillips curve relationship dynamics
#### Component 5: Growth Momentum (Weight: 12%)
Real economic activity assessment:
- Real GDP growth trends
- Economic momentum indicators
- Business cycle position analysis
- Sectoral growth distribution
#### Component 6: Liquidity Conditions (Weight: 10%)
Monetary aggregates and credit analysis:
- M2 money supply growth
- Commercial and industrial lending
- Bank lending standards surveys
- Quantitative easing effects assessment
### 3.2 Normalization and Scaling
Each component undergoes robust statistical normalization using rolling z-score methodology:
Zi,t = (Xi,t - μi,t-n) / σi,t-n
Where:
- Xi,t = raw indicator value
- μi,t-n = rolling mean over n periods
- σi,t-n = rolling standard deviation over n periods
- Z-scores bounded at ±3 to prevent outlier distortion
### 3.3 Regime Detection and Adaptation
The model incorporates dynamic regime detection based on:
- Policy volatility measures
- Market stress indicators (VIX-based)
- Fed communication tone analysis
- Crisis sensitivity parameters
Regime classifications:
1. Crisis: Emergency policy measures likely
2. Tightening: Restrictive monetary policy cycle
3. Easing: Accommodative monetary policy cycle
4. Neutral: Stable policy maintenance
### 3.4 Composite Index Construction
The final AFDFM index combines weighted components:
AFDFMt = Σ wi × Zi,t × Rt
Where:
- wi = component weights (research-calibrated)
- Zi,t = normalized component scores
- Rt = regime multiplier (1.0-1.5)
Index scaled to range for intuitive interpretation.
### 3.5 Decision Probability Calculation
Fed decision probabilities derived through empirical mapping:
P(Cut) = max(0, (Tdovish - AFDFMt) / |Tdovish| × 100)
P(Hike) = max(0, (AFDFMt - Thawkish) / Thawkish × 100)
P(Hold) = 100 - |AFDFMt| × 15
Where Thawkish = +2.0 and Tdovish = -2.0 (empirically calibrated thresholds).
## 4. Data Sources and Real-Time Implementation
### 4.1 FRED Database Integration
- Core PCE Price Index (CPILFESL): Monthly, seasonally adjusted
- Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Monthly, seasonally adjusted
- Real GDP (GDPC1): Quarterly, seasonally adjusted annual rate
- Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS): Monthly average
- Treasury Yields (GS2, GS10): Daily constant maturity
- TIPS Breakeven Rates (T5YIE, T10YIE): Daily market data
### 4.2 High-Frequency Financial Data
- Chicago Fed NFCI: Weekly financial conditions
- JOLTS Job Openings (JTSJOL): Monthly labor market data
- Average Hourly Earnings (AHETPI): Monthly wage data
- M2 Money Supply (M2SL): Monthly monetary aggregates
- Commercial Loans (BUSLOANS): Weekly credit data
### 4.3 Market-Based Indicators
- VIX Index: Real-time volatility measure
- S&P; 500: Market sentiment proxy
- DXY Index: Dollar strength indicator
## 5. Model Validation and Performance
### 5.1 Historical Backtesting (2017-2024)
Comprehensive backtesting across multiple Fed policy cycles demonstrates:
- Signal Accuracy: 78% correct directional predictions
- Timing Precision: 2.3 meetings average lead time
- Crisis Detection: 100% accuracy in identifying emergency measures
- False Signal Rate: 12% (within acceptable research parameters)
### 5.2 Regime-Specific Performance
Tightening Cycles (2017-2018, 2022-2023):
- Hawkish signal accuracy: 82%
- Average prediction lead: 1.8 meetings
- False positive rate: 8%
Easing Cycles (2019, 2020, 2024):
- Dovish signal accuracy: 85%
- Average prediction lead: 2.1 meetings
- Crisis mode detection: 100%
Neutral Periods:
- Hold prediction accuracy: 73%
- Regime stability detection: 89%
### 5.3 Comparative Analysis
AFDFM performance compared to alternative methods:
- Fed Funds Futures: Similar accuracy, lower lead time
- Economic Surveys: Higher accuracy, comparable timing
- Simple Taylor Rule: Lower accuracy, insufficient complexity
- Market-Based Models: Similar performance, higher volatility
## 6. Practical Applications and Use Cases
### 6.1 Institutional Investment Management
- Fixed Income Portfolio Positioning: Duration and curve strategies
- Currency Trading: Dollar-based carry trade optimization
- Risk Management: Interest rate exposure hedging
- Asset Allocation: Regime-based tactical allocation
### 6.2 Corporate Treasury Management
- Debt Issuance Timing: Optimal financing windows
- Interest Rate Hedging: Derivative strategy implementation
- Cash Management: Short-term investment decisions
- Capital Structure Planning: Long-term financing optimization
### 6.3 Academic Research Applications
- Monetary Policy Analysis: Fed behavior studies
- Market Efficiency Research: Information incorporation speed
- Economic Forecasting: Multi-factor model validation
- Policy Impact Assessment: Transmission mechanism analysis
## 7. Model Limitations and Risk Factors
### 7.1 Data Dependency
- Revision Risk: Economic data subject to subsequent revisions
- Availability Lag: Some indicators released with delays
- Quality Variations: Market disruptions affect data reliability
- Structural Breaks: Economic relationship changes over time
### 7.2 Model Assumptions
- Linear Relationships: Complex non-linear dynamics simplified
- Parameter Stability: Component weights may require recalibration
- Regime Classification: Subjective threshold determinations
- Market Efficiency: Assumes rational information processing
### 7.3 Implementation Risks
- Technology Dependence: Real-time data feed requirements
- Complexity Management: Multi-component coordination challenges
- User Interpretation: Requires sophisticated economic understanding
- Regulatory Changes: Fed framework evolution may require updates
## 8. Future Research Directions
### 8.1 Machine Learning Integration
- Neural Network Enhancement: Deep learning pattern recognition
- Natural Language Processing: Fed communication sentiment analysis
- Ensemble Methods: Multiple model combination strategies
- Adaptive Learning: Dynamic parameter optimization
### 8.2 International Expansion
- Multi-Central Bank Models: ECB, BOJ, BOE integration
- Cross-Border Spillovers: International policy coordination
- Currency Impact Analysis: Global monetary policy effects
- Emerging Market Extensions: Developing economy applications
### 8.3 Alternative Data Sources
- Satellite Economic Data: Real-time activity measurement
- Social Media Sentiment: Public opinion incorporation
- Corporate Earnings Calls: Forward-looking indicator extraction
- High-Frequency Transaction Data: Market microstructure analysis
## References
Aaronson, S., Daly, M. C., Wascher, W. L., & Wilcox, D. W. (2019). Okun revisited: Who benefits most from a strong economy? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2019(1), 333-404.
Bernanke, B. S. (2015). The Taylor rule: A benchmark for monetary policy? Brookings Institution Blog. Retrieved from www.brookings.edu
Blinder, A. S., Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M., De Haan, J., & Jansen, D. J. (2008). Central bank communication and monetary policy: A survey of theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(4), 910-945.
Brave, S., & Butters, R. A. (2011). Monitoring financial stability: A financial conditions index approach. Economic Perspectives, 35(1), 22-43.
Clarida, R., Galí, J., & Gertler, M. (1999). The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective. Journal of Economic Literature, 37(4), 1661-1707.
Clarida, R. H. (2019). The Federal Reserve's monetary policy response to COVID-19. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2020(2), 1-52.
Clarida, R. H. (2025). Modern monetary policy rules and Fed decision-making. American Economic Review, 115(2), 445-478.
Daly, M. C., Hobijn, B., Şahin, A., & Valletta, R. G. (2012). A search and matching approach to labor markets: Did the natural rate of unemployment rise? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(3), 3-26.
Federal Reserve. (2024). Monetary Policy Report. Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Hatzius, J., Hooper, P., Mishkin, F. S., Schoenholtz, K. L., & Watson, M. W. (2010). Financial conditions indexes: A fresh look after the financial crisis. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 16150.
Orphanides, A. (2003). Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(5), 983-1022.
Powell, J. H. (2024). Data-dependent monetary policy in practice. Federal Reserve Board Speech. Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195-214.
Yellen, J. L. (2017). The goals of monetary policy and how we pursue them. Federal Reserve Board Speech. University of California, Berkeley.
---
Disclaimer: This model is designed for educational and research purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The academic research cited provides theoretical foundation but does not constitute investment advice. Federal Reserve policy decisions involve complex considerations beyond the scope of any quantitative model.
Citation: EdgeTools Research Team. (2025). Advanced Fed Decision Forecast Model (AFDFM) - Scientific Documentation. EdgeTools Quantitative Research Series
Percent Change of Range Candles - FullPercent Change of Range Candles – Full (PCR Full)
Description:
PCR Full is a custom momentum indicator that measures the percentage price change relative to a defined range, offering traders a unique way to evaluate strength, direction, and potential reversals in price movement.
How it works:
The main value (PCR) is calculated by comparing the price change over a selected number of candles (length) to the range between the highest high and lowest low in the same period.
This percentage change is normalized and visualized with dynamic candles on the subgraph.
Reference levels at +100, +50, 0, -50, and -100 serve as key zones to indicate potential overbought/oversold conditions, continuation, or neutrality.
How to read the indicator:
1. Trend continuation:
When PCR breaks above +50 and holds, it often confirms a strong bullish move.
Similarly, values below -50 and staying low signal a bearish continuation.
2. Wick behavior (volatility insight):
Long wicks on PCR candles suggest uncertainty or failed breakout attempts.
Short or no wicks with strong body color show stable momentum and conviction.
On the chart, multiple long wicks near -50 suggest bulls are attempting to push price upward, but lack the strength — until a confirmed breakout.
3. Polarity transition (Bearish to Bullish or vice versa):
A transition from negative PCR values to above zero shows that the market is possibly turning.
Especially if PCR climbs gradually and stabilizes above zero, it indicates a developing bullish phase.
Components:
Main PCR line: Color-coded (green for rising, red for falling).
Open Average (gray line): Smooths recent PCR values, indicating balance.
High/Low adaptive bands: Adjust dynamically to PCR polarity.
PCR Candles: Visualize OHLC of PCR data for enhanced interpretation.
Suggested use cases:
Enter trend trades when PCR crosses +50 or -50 with volume or price confirmation.
Watch for reversal signs near ±100 if PCR fails to break further.
Use 0 line as a neutral zone — markets hovering near 0 are often in consolidation.
Combine with price action or oscillators like RSI/MACD for additional signals.
Customization:
The length input allows users to define the range for PCR calculations, making it adjustable to various timeframes and strategies (scalping, intraday, swing).
Trend Gauge [BullByte]Trend Gauge
Summary
A multi-factor trend detection indicator that aggregates EMA alignment, VWMA momentum scaling, volume spikes, ATR breakout strength, higher-timeframe confirmation, ADX-based regime filtering, and RSI pivot-divergence penalty into one normalized trend score. It also provides a confidence meter, a Δ Score momentum histogram, divergence highlights, and a compact, scalable dashboard for at-a-glance status.
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## 1. Purpose of the Indicator
Why this was built
Traders often monitor several indicators in parallel - EMAs, volume signals, volatility breakouts, higher-timeframe trends, ADX readings, divergence alerts, etc., which can be cumbersome and sometimes contradictory. The “Trend Gauge” indicator was created to consolidate these complementary checks into a single, normalized score that reflects the prevailing market bias (bullish, bearish, or neutral) and its strength. By combining multiple inputs with an adaptive regime filter, scaling contributions by magnitude, and penalizing weakening signals (divergence), this tool aims to reduce noise, highlight genuine trend opportunities, and warn when momentum fades.
Key Design Goals
Signal Aggregation
Merged trend-following signals (EMA crossover, ATR breakout, higher-timeframe confirmation) and momentum signals (VWMA thrust, volume spikes) into a unified score that reflects directional bias more holistically.
Market Regime Awareness
Implemented an ADX-style filter to distinguish between trending and ranging markets, reducing the influence of trend signals during sideways phases to avoid false breakouts.
Magnitude-Based Scaling
Replaced binary contributions with scaled inputs: VWMA thrust and ATR breakout are weighted relative to recent averages, allowing for more nuanced score adjustments based on signal strength.
Momentum Divergence Penalty
Integrated pivot-based RSI divergence detection to slightly reduce the overall score when early signs of momentum weakening are detected, improving risk-awareness in entries.
Confidence Transparency
Added a live confidence metric that shows what percentage of enabled sub-indicators currently agree with the overall bias, making the scoring system more interpretable.
Momentum Acceleration Visualization
Plotted the change in score (Δ Score) as a histogram bar-to-bar, highlighting whether momentum is increasing, flattening, or reversing, aiding in more timely decision-making.
Compact Informational Dashboard
Presented a clean, scalable dashboard that displays each component’s status, the final score, confidence %, detected regime (Trending/Ranging), and a labeled strength gauge for quick visual assessment.
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## 2. Why a Trader Should Use It
Main benefits and use cases
1. Unified View: Rather than juggling multiple windows or panels, this indicator delivers a single score synthesizing diverse signals.
2. Regime Filtering: In ranging markets, trend signals often generate false entries. The ADX-based regime filter automatically down-weights trend-following components, helping you avoid chasing false breakouts.
3. Nuanced Momentum & Volatility: VWMA and ATR breakout contributions are normalized by recent averages, so strong moves register strongly while smaller fluctuations are de-emphasized.
4. Early Warning of Weakening: Pivot-based RSI divergence is detected and used to slightly reduce the score when price/momentum diverges, giving a cautionary signal before a full reversal.
5. Confidence Meter: See at a glance how many sub-indicators align with the aggregated bias (e.g., “80% confidence” means 4 out of 5 components agree ). This transparency avoids black-box decisions.
6. Trend Acceleration/Deceleration View: The Δ Score histogram visualizes whether the aggregated score is rising (accelerating trend) or falling (momentum fading), supplementing the main oscillator.
7. Compact Dashboard: A corner table lists each check’s status (“Bull”, “Bear”, “Flat” or “Disabled”), plus overall Score, Confidence %, Regime, Trend Strength label, and a gauge bar. Users can scale text size (Normal, Small, Tiny) without removing elements, so the full picture remains visible even in compact layouts.
8. Customizable & Transparent: All components can be enabled/disabled and parameterized (lengths, thresholds, weights). The full Pine code is open and well-commented, letting users inspect or adapt the logic.
9. Alert-ready: Built-in alert conditions fire when the score crosses weak thresholds to bullish/bearish or returns to neutral, enabling timely notifications.
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## 3. Component Rationale (“Why These Specific Indicators?”)
Each sub-component was chosen because it adds complementary information about trend or momentum:
1. EMA Cross
o Basic trend measure: compares a faster EMA vs. a slower EMA. Quickly reflects trend shifts but by itself can whipsaw in sideways markets.
2. VWMA Momentum
o Volume-weighted moving average change indicates momentum with volume context. By normalizing (dividing by a recent average absolute change), we capture the strength of momentum relative to recent history. This scaling prevents tiny moves from dominating and highlights genuinely strong momentum.
3. Volume Spikes
o Sudden jumps in volume combined with price movement often accompany stronger moves or reversals. A binary detection (+1 for bullish spike, -1 for bearish spike) flags high-conviction bars.
4. ATR Breakout
o Detects price breaking beyond recent highs/lows by a multiple of ATR. Measures breakout strength by how far beyond the threshold price moves relative to ATR, capped to avoid extreme outliers. This gives a volatility-contextual trend signal.
5. Higher-Timeframe EMA Alignment
o Confirms whether the shorter-term trend aligns with a higher timeframe trend. Uses request.security with lookahead_off to avoid future data. When multiple timeframes agree, confidence in direction increases.
6. ADX Regime Filter (Manual Calculation)
o Computes directional movement (+DM/–DM), smoothes via RMA, computes DI+ and DI–, then a DX and ADX-like value. If ADX ≥ threshold, market is “Trending” and trend components carry full weight; if ADX < threshold, “Ranging” mode applies a configurable weight multiplier (e.g., 0.5) to trend-based contributions, reducing false signals in sideways conditions. Volume spikes remain binary (optional behavior; can be adjusted if desired).
7. RSI Pivot-Divergence Penalty
o Uses ta.pivothigh / ta.pivotlow with a lookback to detect pivot highs/lows on price and corresponding RSI values. When price makes a higher high but RSI makes a lower high (bearish divergence), or price makes a lower low but RSI makes a higher low (bullish divergence), a divergence signal is set. Rather than flipping the trend outright, the indicator subtracts (or adds) a small penalty (configurable) from the aggregated score if it would weaken the current bias. This subtle adjustment warns of weakening momentum without overreacting to noise.
8. Confidence Meter
o Counts how many enabled components currently agree in direction with the aggregated score (i.e., component sign × score sign > 0). Displays this as a percentage. A high percentage indicates strong corroboration; a low percentage warns of mixed signals.
9. Δ Score Momentum View
o Plots the bar-to-bar change in the aggregated score (delta_score = score - score ) as a histogram. When positive, bars are drawn in green above zero; when negative, bars are drawn in red below zero. This reveals acceleration (rising Δ) or deceleration (falling Δ), supplementing the main oscillator.
10. Dashboard
• A table in the indicator pane’s top-right with 11 rows:
1. EMA Cross status
2. VWMA Momentum status
3. Volume Spike status
4. ATR Breakout status
5. Higher-Timeframe Trend status
6. Score (numeric)
7. Confidence %
8. Regime (“Trending” or “Ranging”)
9. Trend Strength label (e.g., “Weak Bullish Trend”, “Strong Bearish Trend”)
10. Gauge bar visually representing score magnitude
• All rows always present; size_opt (Normal, Small, Tiny) only changes text size via text_size, not which elements appear. This ensures full transparency.
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## 4. What Makes This Indicator Stand Out
• Regime-Weighted Multi-Factor Score: Trend and momentum signals are adaptively weighted by market regime (trending vs. ranging) , reducing false signals.
• Magnitude Scaling: VWMA and ATR breakout contributions are normalized by recent average momentum or ATR, giving finer gradation compared to simple ±1.
• Integrated Divergence Penalty: Divergence directly adjusts the aggregated score rather than appearing as a separate subplot; this influences alerts and trend labeling in real time.
• Confidence Meter: Shows the percentage of sub-signals in agreement, providing transparency and preventing blind trust in a single metric.
• Δ Score Histogram Momentum View: A histogram highlights acceleration or deceleration of the aggregated trend score, helping detect shifts early.
• Flexible Dashboard: Always-visible component statuses and summary metrics in one place; text size scaling keeps the full picture available in cramped layouts.
• Lookahead-Safe HTF Confirmation: Uses lookahead_off so no future data is accessed from higher timeframes, avoiding repaint bias.
• Repaint Transparency: Divergence detection uses pivot functions that inherently confirm only after lookback bars; description documents this lag so users understand how and when divergence labels appear.
• Open-Source & Educational: Full, well-commented Pine v6 code is provided; users can learn from its structure: manual ADX computation, conditional plotting with series = show ? value : na, efficient use of table.new in barstate.islast, and grouped inputs with tooltips.
• Compliance-Conscious: All plots have descriptive titles; inputs use clear names; no unnamed generic “Plot” entries; manual ADX uses RMA; all request.security calls use lookahead_off. Code comments mention repaint behavior and limitations.
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## 5. Recommended Timeframes & Tuning
• Any Timeframe: The indicator works on small (e.g., 1m) to large (daily, weekly) timeframes. However:
o On very low timeframes (<1m or tick charts), noise may produce frequent whipsaws. Consider increasing smoothing lengths, disabling certain components (e.g., volume spike if volume data noisy), or using a larger pivot lookback for divergence.
o On higher timeframes (daily, weekly), consider longer lookbacks for ATR breakout or divergence, and set Higher-Timeframe trend appropriately (e.g., 4H HTF when on 5 Min chart).
• Defaults & Experimentation: Default input values are chosen to be balanced for many liquid markets. Users should test with replay or historical analysis on their symbol/timeframe and adjust:
o ADX threshold (e.g., 20–30) based on instrument volatility.
o VWMA and ATR scaling lengths to match average volatility cycles.
o Pivot lookback for divergence: shorter for faster markets, longer for slower ones.
• Combining with Other Analysis: Use in conjunction with price action, support/resistance, candlestick patterns, order flow, or other tools as desired. The aggregated score and alerts can guide attention but should not be the sole decision-factor.
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## 6. How Scoring and Logic Works (Step-by-Step)
1. Compute Sub-Scores
o EMA Cross: Evaluate fast EMA > slow EMA ? +1 : fast EMA < slow EMA ? -1 : 0.
o VWMA Momentum: Calculate vwma = ta.vwma(close, length), then vwma_mom = vwma - vwma . Normalize: divide by recent average absolute momentum (e.g., ta.sma(abs(vwma_mom), lookback)), clip to .
o Volume Spike: Compute vol_SMA = ta.sma(volume, len). If volume > vol_SMA * multiplier AND price moved up ≥ threshold%, assign +1; if moved down ≥ threshold%, assign -1; else 0.
o ATR Breakout: Determine recent high/low over lookback. If close > high + ATR*mult, compute distance = close - (high + ATR*mult), normalize by ATR, cap at a configured maximum. Assign positive contribution. Similarly for bearish breakout below low.
o Higher-Timeframe Trend: Use request.security(..., lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off) to fetch HTF EMAs; assign +1 or -1 based on alignment.
2. ADX Regime Weighting
o Compute manual ADX: directional movements (+DM, –DM), smoothed via RMA, DI+ and DI–, then DX and ADX via RMA. If ADX ≥ threshold, market is considered “Trending”; otherwise “Ranging.”
o If trending, trend-based contributions (EMA, VWMA, ATR, HTF) use full weight = 1.0. If ranging, use weight = ranging_weight (e.g., 0.5) to down-weight them. Volume spike stays binary ±1 (optional to change if desired).
3. Aggregate Raw Score
o Sum weighted contributions of all enabled components. Count the number of enabled components; if zero, default count = 1 to avoid division by zero.
4. Divergence Penalty
o Detect pivot highs/lows on price and corresponding RSI values, using a lookback. When price and RSI diverge (bearish or bullish divergence), check if current raw score is in the opposing direction:
If bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high) and raw score currently positive, subtract a penalty (e.g., 0.5).
If bullish divergence (price lower low, RSI higher low) and raw score currently negative, add a penalty.
o This reduces score magnitude to reflect weakening momentum, without flipping the trend outright.
5. Normalize and Smooth
o Normalized score = (raw_score / number_of_enabled_components) * 100. This yields a roughly range.
o Optional EMA smoothing of this normalized score to reduce noise.
6. Interpretation
o Sign: >0 = net bullish bias; <0 = net bearish bias; near zero = neutral.
o Magnitude Zones: Compare |score| to thresholds (Weak, Medium, Strong) to label trend strength (e.g., “Weak Bullish Trend”, “Medium Bearish Trend”, “Strong Bullish Trend”).
o Δ Score Histogram: The histogram bars from zero show change from previous bar’s score; positive bars indicate acceleration, negative bars indicate deceleration.
o Confidence: Percentage of sub-indicators aligned with the score’s sign.
o Regime: Indicates whether trend-based signals are fully weighted or down-weighted.
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## 7. Oscillator Plot & Visualization: How to Read It
Main Score Line & Area
The oscillator plots the aggregated score as a line, with colored fill: green above zero for bullish area, red below zero for bearish area. Horizontal reference lines at ±Weak, ±Medium, and ±Strong thresholds mark zones: crossing above +Weak suggests beginning of bullish bias, above +Medium for moderate strength, above +Strong for strong trend; similarly for bearish below negative thresholds.
Δ Score Histogram
If enabled, a histogram shows score - score . When positive, bars appear in green above zero, indicating accelerating bullish momentum; when negative, bars appear in red below zero, indicating decelerating or reversing momentum. The height of each bar reflects the magnitude of change in the aggregated score from the prior bar.
Divergence Highlight Fill
If enabled, when a pivot-based divergence is confirmed:
• Bullish Divergence : fill the area below zero down to –Weak threshold in green, signaling potential reversal from bearish to bullish.
• Bearish Divergence : fill the area above zero up to +Weak threshold in red, signaling potential reversal from bullish to bearish.
These fills appear with a lag equal to pivot lookback (the number of bars needed to confirm the pivot). They do not repaint after confirmation, but users must understand this lag.
Trend Direction Label
When score crosses above or below the Weak threshold, a small label appears near the score line reading “Bullish” or “Bearish.” If the score returns within ±Weak, the label “Neutral” appears. This helps quickly identify shifts at the moment they occur.
Dashboard Panel
In the indicator pane’s top-right, a table shows:
1. EMA Cross status: “Bull”, “Bear”, “Flat”, or “Disabled”
2. VWMA Momentum status: similarly
3. Volume Spike status: “Bull”, “Bear”, “No”, or “Disabled”
4. ATR Breakout status: “Bull”, “Bear”, “No”, or “Disabled”
5. Higher-Timeframe Trend status: “Bull”, “Bear”, “Flat”, or “Disabled”
6. Score: numeric value (rounded)
7. Confidence: e.g., “80%” (colored: green for high, amber for medium, red for low)
8. Regime: “Trending” or “Ranging” (colored accordingly)
9. Trend Strength: textual label based on magnitude (e.g., “Medium Bullish Trend”)
10. Gauge: a bar of blocks representing |score|/100
All rows remain visible at all times; changing Dashboard Size only scales text size (Normal, Small, Tiny).
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## 8. Example Usage (Illustrative Scenario)
Example: BTCUSD 5 Min
1. Setup: Add “Trend Gauge ” to your BTCUSD 5 Min chart. Defaults: EMAs (8/21), VWMA 14 with lookback 3, volume spike settings, ATR breakout 14/5, HTF = 5m (or adjust to 4H if preferred), ADX threshold 25, ranging weight 0.5, divergence RSI length 14 pivot lookback 5, penalty 0.5, smoothing length 3, thresholds Weak=20, Medium=50, Strong=80. Dashboard Size = Small.
2. Trend Onset: At some point, price breaks above recent high by ATR multiple, volume spikes upward, faster EMA crosses above slower EMA, HTF EMA also bullish, and ADX (manual) ≥ threshold → aggregated score rises above +20 (Weak threshold) into +Medium zone. Dashboard shows “Bull” for EMA, VWMA, Vol Spike, ATR, HTF; Score ~+60–+70; Confidence ~100%; Regime “Trending”; Trend Strength “Medium Bullish Trend”; Gauge ~6–7 blocks. Δ Score histogram bars are green and rising, indicating accelerating bullish momentum. Trader notes the alignment.
3. Divergence Warning: Later, price makes a slightly higher high but RSI fails to confirm (lower RSI high). Pivot lookback completes; the indicator highlights a bearish divergence fill above zero and subtracts a small penalty from the score, causing score to stall or retrace slightly. Dashboard still bullish but score dips toward +Weak. This warns the trader to tighten stops or take partial profits.
4. Trend Weakens: Score eventually crosses below +Weak back into neutral; a “Neutral” label appears, and a “Neutral Trend” alert fires if enabled. Trader exits or avoids new long entries. If score subsequently crosses below –Weak, a “Bearish” label and alert occur.
5. Customization: If the trader finds VWMA noise too frequent on this instrument, they may disable VWMA or increase lookback. If ATR breakouts are too rare, adjust ATR length or multiplier. If ADX threshold seems off, tune threshold. All these adjustments are explained in Inputs section.
6. Visualization: The screenshot shows the main score oscillator with colored areas, reference lines at ±20/50/80, Δ Score histogram bars below/above zero, divergence fill highlighting potential reversal, and the dashboard table in the top-right.
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## 9. Inputs Explanation
A concise yet clear summary of inputs helps users understand and adjust:
1. General Settings
• Theme (Dark/Light): Choose background-appropriate colors for the indicator pane.
• Dashboard Size (Normal/Small/Tiny): Scales text size only; all dashboard elements remain visible.
2. Indicator Settings
• Enable EMA Cross: Toggle on/off basic EMA alignment check.
o Fast EMA Length and Slow EMA Length: Periods for EMAs.
• Enable VWMA Momentum: Toggle VWMA momentum check.
o VWMA Length: Period for VWMA.
o VWMA Momentum Lookback: Bars to compare VWMA to measure momentum.
• Enable Volume Spike: Toggle volume spike detection.
o Volume SMA Length: Period to compute average volume.
o Volume Spike Multiplier: How many times above average volume qualifies as spike.
o Min Price Move (%): Minimum percent change in price during spike to qualify as bullish or bearish.
• Enable ATR Breakout: Toggle ATR breakout detection.
o ATR Length: Period for ATR.
o Breakout Lookback: Bars to look back for recent highs/lows.
o ATR Multiplier: Multiplier for breakout threshold.
• Enable Higher Timeframe Trend: Toggle HTF EMA alignment.
o Higher Timeframe: E.g., “5” for 5-minute when on 1-minute chart, or “60” for 5 Min when on 15m, etc. Uses lookahead_off.
• Enable ADX Regime Filter: Toggles regime-based weighting.
o ADX Length: Period for manual ADX calculation.
o ADX Threshold: Value above which market considered trending.
o Ranging Weight Multiplier: Weight applied to trend components when ADX < threshold (e.g., 0.5).
• Scale VWMA Momentum: Toggle normalization of VWMA momentum magnitude.
o VWMA Mom Scale Lookback: Period for average absolute VWMA momentum.
• Scale ATR Breakout Strength: Toggle normalization of breakout distance by ATR.
o ATR Scale Cap: Maximum multiple of ATR used for breakout strength.
• Enable Price-RSI Divergence: Toggle divergence detection.
o RSI Length for Divergence: Period for RSI.
o Pivot Lookback for Divergence: Bars on each side to identify pivot high/low.
o Divergence Penalty: Amount to subtract/add to score when divergence detected (e.g., 0.5).
3. Score Settings
• Smooth Score: Toggle EMA smoothing of normalized score.
• Score Smoothing Length: Period for smoothing EMA.
• Weak Threshold: Absolute score value under which trend is considered weak or neutral.
• Medium Threshold: Score above Weak but below Medium is moderate.
• Strong Threshold: Score above this indicates strong trend.
4. Visualization Settings
• Show Δ Score Histogram: Toggle display of the bar-to-bar change in score as a histogram. Default true.
• Show Divergence Fill: Toggle background fill highlighting confirmed divergences. Default true.
Each input has a tooltip in the code.
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## 10. Limitations, Repaint Notes, and Disclaimers
10.1. Repaint & Lag Considerations
• Pivot-Based Divergence Lag: The divergence detection uses ta.pivothigh / ta.pivotlow with a specified lookback. By design, a pivot is only confirmed after the lookback number of bars. As a result:
o Divergence labels or fills appear with a delay equal to the pivot lookback.
o Once the pivot is confirmed and the divergence is detected, the fill/label does not repaint thereafter, but you must understand and accept this lag.
o Users should not treat divergence highlights as predictive signals without additional confirmation, because they appear after the pivot has fully formed.
• Higher-Timeframe EMA Alignment: Uses request.security(..., lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off), so no future data from the higher timeframe is used. This avoids lookahead bias and ensures signals are based only on completed higher-timeframe bars.
• No Future Data: All calculations are designed to avoid using future information. For example, manual ADX uses RMA on past data; security calls use lookahead_off.
10.2. Market & Noise Considerations
• In very choppy or low-liquidity markets, some components (e.g., volume spikes or VWMA momentum) may be noisy. Users can disable or adjust those components’ parameters.
• On extremely low timeframes, noise may dominate; consider smoothing lengths or disabling certain features.
• On very high timeframes, pivots and breakouts occur less frequently; adjust lookbacks accordingly to avoid sparse signals.
10.3. Not a Standalone Trading System
• This is an indicator, not a complete trading strategy. It provides signals and context but does not manage entries, exits, position sizing, or risk management.
• Users must combine it with their own analysis, money management, and confirmations (e.g., price patterns, support/resistance, fundamental context).
• No guarantees: past behavior does not guarantee future performance.
10.4. Disclaimers
• Educational Purposes Only: The script is provided as-is for educational and informational purposes. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
• Use at Your Own Risk: Trading involves risk of loss. Users should thoroughly test and use proper risk management.
• No Guarantees: The author is not responsible for trading outcomes based on this indicator.
• License: Published under Mozilla Public License 2.0; code is open for viewing and modification under MPL terms.
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## 11. Alerts
• The indicator defines three alert conditions:
1. Bullish Trend: when the aggregated score crosses above the Weak threshold.
2. Bearish Trend: when the score crosses below the negative Weak threshold.
3. Neutral Trend: when the score returns within ±Weak after being outside.
Good luck
– BullByte
Magnificent 7 OscillatorThe Magnificent 7 Oscillator is a sophisticated momentum-based technical indicator designed to analyze the collective performance of the seven largest technology companies in the U.S. stock market (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Tesla, and Meta). This indicator incorporates established momentum factor research and provides three distinct analytical modes: absolute momentum tracking, equal-weighted market comparison, and relative performance analysis. The tool integrates five different oscillator methodologies and includes advanced breadth analysis capabilities.
Theoretical Foundation
Momentum Factor Research
The indicator's foundation rests on seminal momentum research in financial markets. Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) demonstrated that stocks with strong price performance over 3-12 month periods tend to continue outperforming in subsequent periods¹. This momentum effect was later incorporated into formal factor models by Carhart (1997), who extended the Fama-French three-factor model to include a momentum factor (UMD - Up Minus Down)².
The momentum calculation methodology follows the academic standard:
Momentum(t) = / P(t-n) × 100
Where P(t) is the current price and n is the lookback period.
The focus on the "Magnificent 7" stocks reflects the increasing market concentration observed in recent years. Fama and French (2015) noted that a small number of large-cap stocks can drive significant market movements due to their substantial index weights³. The combined market capitalization of these seven companies often exceeds 25% of the total S&P 500, making their collective momentum a critical market indicator.
Indicator Architecture
Core Components
1. Data Collection and Processing
The indicator employs robust data collection with error handling for missing or invalid security data. Each stock's momentum is calculated independently using the specified lookback period (default: 14 periods).
2. Composite Oscillator Calculation
Following Fama-French factor construction methodology, the indicator offers two weighting schemes:
- Equal Weight: Each active stock receives identical weighting (1/n)
- Market Cap Weight: Reserved for future enhancement
3. Oscillator Transformation Functions
The indicator provides five distinct oscillator types, each with established technical analysis foundations:
a) Momentum Oscillator (Default)
- Pure rate-of-change calculation
- Centered around zero
- Direct implementation of Jegadeesh & Titman methodology
b) RSI (Relative Strength Index)
- Wilder's (1978) relative strength methodology
- Transformed to center around zero for consistency
- Scale: -50 to +50
c) Stochastic Oscillator
- George Lane's %K methodology
- Measures current position within recent range
- Transformed to center around zero
d) Williams %R
- Larry Williams' range-based oscillator
- Inverse stochastic calculation
- Adjusted for zero-centered display
e) CCI (Commodity Channel Index)
- Donald Lambert's mean reversion indicator
- Measures deviation from moving average
- Scaled for optimal visualization
Operational Modes
Mode 1: Magnificent 7 Analysis
Tracks the collective momentum of the seven constituent stocks. This mode is optimal for:
- Technology sector analysis
- Growth stock momentum assessment
- Large-cap performance tracking
Mode 2: S&P 500 Equal Weight Comparison
Analyzes momentum using an equal-weighted S&P 500 reference (typically RSP ETF). This mode provides:
- Broader market momentum context
- Size-neutral market analysis
- Comparison baseline for relative performance
Mode 3: Relative Performance Analysis
Calculates the momentum differential between Magnificent 7 and S&P 500 Equal Weight. This mode enables:
- Sector rotation analysis
- Style factor assessment (Growth vs. Value)
- Relative strength identification
Formula: Relative Performance = MAG7_Momentum - SP500EW_Momentum
Signal Generation and Thresholds
Signal Classification
The indicator generates three signal states:
- Bullish: Oscillator > Upper Threshold (default: +2.0%)
- Bearish: Oscillator < Lower Threshold (default: -2.0%)
- Neutral: Oscillator between thresholds
Relative Performance Signals
In relative performance mode, specialized thresholds apply:
- Outperformance: Relative momentum > +1.0%
- Underperformance: Relative momentum < -1.0%
Alert System
Comprehensive alert conditions include:
- Threshold crossovers (bullish/bearish signals)
- Zero-line crosses (momentum direction changes)
- Relative performance shifts
- Breadth Analysis Component
The indicator incorporates market breadth analysis, calculating the percentage of constituent stocks with positive momentum. This feature provides insights into:
- Strong Breadth (>60%): Broad-based momentum
- Weak Breadth (<40%): Narrow momentum leadership
- Mixed Breadth (40-60%): Neutral momentum distribution
Visual Design and User Interface
Theme-Adaptive Display
The indicator automatically adjusts color schemes for dark and light chart themes, ensuring optimal visibility across different user preferences.
Professional Data Table
A comprehensive data table displays:
- Current oscillator value and percentage
- Active mode and oscillator type
- Signal status and strength
- Component breakdowns (in relative performance mode)
- Breadth percentage
- Active threshold levels
Custom Color Options
Users can override default colors with custom selections for:
- Neutral conditions (default: Material Blue)
- Bullish signals (default: Material Green)
- Bearish signals (default: Material Red)
Practical Applications
Portfolio Management
- Sector Allocation: Use relative performance mode to time technology sector exposure
- Risk Management: Monitor breadth deterioration as early warning signal
- Entry/Exit Timing: Utilize threshold crossovers for position sizing decisions
Market Analysis
- Trend Identification: Zero-line crosses indicate momentum regime changes
- Divergence Analysis: Compare MAG7 performance against broader market
- Volatility Assessment: Oscillator range and frequency provide volatility insights
Strategy Development
- Factor Timing: Implement growth factor timing strategies
- Momentum Strategies: Develop systematic momentum-based approaches
- Risk Parity: Use breadth metrics for risk-adjusted portfolio construction
Configuration Guidelines
Parameter Selection
- Momentum Period (5-100): Shorter periods (5-20) for tactical analysis, longer periods (50-100) for strategic assessment
- Smoothing Period (1-50): Higher values reduce noise but increase lag
- Thresholds: Adjust based on historical volatility and strategy requirements
Timeframe Considerations
- Daily Charts: Optimal for swing trading and medium-term analysis
- Weekly Charts: Suitable for long-term trend analysis
- Intraday Charts: Useful for short-term tactical decisions
Limitations and Considerations
Market Concentration Risk
The indicator's focus on seven stocks creates concentration risk. During periods of significant rotation away from large-cap technology stocks, the indicator may not represent broader market conditions.
Momentum Persistence
While momentum effects are well-documented, they are not permanent. Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) noted momentum reversal effects over longer time horizons (2-5 years).
Correlation Dynamics
During market stress, correlations among the constituent stocks may increase, reducing the diversification benefits and potentially amplifying signal intensity.
Performance Metrics and Backtesting
The indicator includes hidden plots for comprehensive backtesting:
- Individual stock momentum values
- Composite breadth percentage
- S&P 500 Equal Weight momentum
- Relative performance calculations
These metrics enable quantitative strategy development and historical performance analysis.
References
¹Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to buying winners and selling losers: Implications for stock market efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
Carhart, M. M. (1997). On persistence in mutual fund performance. Journal of Finance, 52(1), 57-82.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2015). A five-factor asset pricing model. Journal of Financial Economics, 116(1), 1-22.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New concepts in technical trading systems. Trend Research.
Candle Count RSI📈 Candle Count RSI — A Dual-Perspective Momentum Engine
The Candle Count RSI is a custom-built momentum oscillator that expands on the classic Relative Strength Index (RSI) by introducing a directional-only variant that tracks the frequency of bullish or bearish closes, rather than price magnitude. It gives traders a second lens through which to evaluate momentum, trend conviction, and subtle divergences—often invisible to traditional price-based RSI.
💡 What Makes It Unique?
While the standard RSI is sensitive to the size of price changes, the Candle Count RSI is magnitude-blind. It counts candle closes above/below open over a lookback period, generating a purer signal of directional consistency. To enhance signal fidelity, it includes a streak amplifier, dynamically weighting extended runs of green or red candles to reflect intensity of market bias—without introducing artificial price sensitivity.
This dual-RSI approach allows for:
- Divergence detection between directional bias and price magnitude.
- Smoother trend confirmation in choppy markets.
- Cleaner visual cues using dynamic glow and background logic.
📐 How Standard RSI Actually Works (Not What You Think)
RSI doesn’t just check if price went up or down over a span—it checks each individual candle and tracks whether it closed higher or lower than the one before. Here's how it works under the hood:
1.) For each bar, it calculates the change from the previous close.
2.) It separates those changes into gains (upward moves) and losses (downward moves).
3.) Then it computes a smoothed average of those gains and losses (usually using an RMA).
4.) It calculates the Relative Strength (RS) as:
RS = AvgGain / AvgLoss
5.) Finally, it plugs that into the RSI formula:
RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + RS))
⚖️ What Does the 50 Line Mean?
- The RSI scale runs from 0 to 100, but 50 is the true neutral zone:
- RSI > 50 means average gains outweigh average losses over the period.
- RSI < 50 means losses dominate.
- RSI ≈ 50? The market is balanced—momentum is indecisive, no clear trend bias.
- This makes 50 a powerful midline for trend filters, directional bias tools, and divergence detection—especially when paired with alternative RSI logic like Candle Count RSI.
🔧 Inputs and Customization
- Everything is fully modular and customizable:
🧠 Core Settings
- RSI Length: Used for both the standard RSI and Candle Count RSI.
📉 Standard RSI
- Classic RSI calculation based on price changes.
- Optional WMA smoothing to reduce noise.
- Glow effect toggle with custom intensity.
🕯 Candle Count RSI
- Computes RSI using only the count of up/down candles.
- Optional smoothing for stability.
- Amplifies streaks (e.g., multiple consecutive bullish candles increase strength).
- Glow effect toggle with adjustable strength.
🎇 Glow Visuals
- Background glow (subpane and/or main chart).
- Fades based on RSI distance from the 50 midpoint.
- Independent color settings for bull and bear bias.
🧬 Divergence Zones
- Detects when Candle RSI and Standard RSI diverge.
- Highlights:
- Bullish Divergence: Candle RSI > 50, Standard RSI < threshold.
- Bearish Divergence: Candle RSI < 50, Standard RSI > threshold.
- Background fill optionally shown in subpane and/or main chart.
📊 Directional Histogram
- MACD-style histogram showing the difference between the two RSI lines.
- Color-coded based on directional agreement:
- Both rising → green.
- Both falling → red.
- Conflict → yellow.
🧠 Under the Hood — How It Works
🔹 Standard RSI
- Classic ta.rsi() applied to close prices, optionally WMA-smoothed.
🔹 Candle Count RSI (CCR)
- Counts how many candles closed up/down over the period.
- Computes a magnitude-free RSI from these counts.
- Applies a streak-based multiplier to exaggerate trend strength during consecutive green/red runs.
- Optionally smoothed with WMA to create a clean signal line.
- This makes CCR ideal for detecting true directional bias without being faked out by volatile price spikes.
🔹 Divergence Logic
- When Candle RSI and Standard RSI disagree strongly across defined thresholds, background fills highlight early signs of momentum decay or hidden accumulation/distribution.
🔹 Glow Logic
- Glow zones are controlled by a master toggle and drawn with dynamic transparency:
- Further from 50 = stronger conviction = darker glow.
- Shows up in subpane and/or main chart depending on user preference.
📷 Suggested Use Case / Visual Setup
- Use in conjunction with your primary price action system.
- Watch for divergences between the Candle Count RSI and Standard RSI for early trend reversals.
- Use glow bias zones on the main chart to get subconscious directional cues during fast scalping.
- Histogram helps you confirm when both RSI variants agree—useful during strong trending conditions.
🛠️ Tip for Traders
- This tool isn’t trying to “predict” price. It’s designed to visualize hidden market psychology—when buyers are showing up with consistent pressure, or when momentum has a disconnect between conviction and magnitude. Use this to filter entries, spot weak rallies, or sense when a trend is about to break down.
⚠️ WARNING
- Not for use with Heikin Ashi, Renko, etc.).
🧠 Summary
Candle Count RSI is not just another mashup—it's a precision-built, dual-perspective oscillator that captures directional conviction using real candle behavior. Whether you're scalping intraday or swing trading momentum, this script helps clarify trend integrity and exposes hidden weaknesses with elegance and clarity.
—
🛠️ Built by: Sherlock_MacGyver
Feel free to share feedback or reach out if you'd like to collaborate on custom features.
Candle Breakout Oscillator [LuxAlgo]The Candle Breakout Oscillator tool allows traders to identify the strength and weakness of the three main market states: bullish, bearish, and choppy.
Know who controls the market at any given moment with an oscillator display with values ranging from 0 to 100 for the three main plots and upper and lower thresholds of 80 and 20 by default.
🔶 USAGE
The Candle Breakout Oscillator represents the three main market states, with values ranging from 0 to 100. By default, the upper and lower thresholds are set at 80 and 20, and when a value exceeds these thresholds, a colored area is displayed for the trader's convenience.
This tool is based on pure price action breakouts. In this context, we understand a breakout as a close above the last candle's high or low, which is representative of market strength. All other close positions in relation to the last candle's limits are considered weakness.
So, when the bullish plot (in green) is at the top of the oscillator (values above 80), it means that the bullish breakouts (close below the last candle low) are at their maximum value over the calculation window, indicating an uptrend. The same interpretation can be made for the bearish plot (in red), indicating a downtrend when high.
On the other hand, weakness is indicated when values are below the lower threshold (20), indicating that breakouts are at their minimum over the last 100 candles. Below are some examples of the possible main interpretations:
There are three main things to look for in this oscillator:
Value reaches extreme
Value leaves extreme
Bullish/Bearish crossovers
As we can see on the chart, before the first crossover happens the bears come out of strength (top) and the bulls come out of weakness (bottom), then after the crossover the bulls reach strength (top) and the bears weakness (bottom), this process is repeated in reverse for the second crossover.
The other main feature of the oscillator is its ability to identify periods of sideways trends when the sideways values have upper readings above 80, and trending behavior when the sideways values have lower readings below 20. As we just saw in the case of bullish vs. bearish, sideways values signal a change in behavior when reaching or leaving the extremes of the oscillator.
🔶 DETAILS
🔹 Data Smoothing
The tool offers up to 10 different smoothing methods. In the chart above, we can see the raw data (smoothing: None) and the RMA, TEMA, or Hull moving averages.
🔹 Data Weighting
Users can add different weighting methods to the data. As we can see in the image above, users can choose between None, Volume, or Price (as in Price Delta for each breakout).
🔶 SETTINGS
Window: Execution window, 100 candles by default
🔹 Data
Smoothing Method: Choose between none or ten moving averages
Smoothing Length: Length for the moving average
Weighting Method: Choose between None, Volume, or Price
🔹 Thresholds
Top: 80 by default
Bottom: 20 by default
Enhanced Stock Ticker with 50MA vs 200MADescription
The Enhanced Stock Ticker with 50MA vs 200MA is a versatile Pine Script indicator designed to visualize the relative position of a stock's price within its short-term and long-term price ranges, providing actionable bullish and bearish signals. By calculating normalized indices based on user-defined lookback periods (defaulting to 50 and 200 bars), this indicator helps traders identify potential reversals or trend continuations. It offers the flexibility to plot signals either on the main price chart or in a separate lower pane, leveraging Pine Script v6's force_overlay functionality for seamless integration. The indicator also includes a customizable ticker table, visual fills, and alert conditions for automated trading setups.
Key Features
Dual Lookback Indices: Computes short-term (default: 50 bars) and long-term (default: 200 bars) indices, normalizing the closing price relative to the high/low range over the specified periods.
Flexible Signal Plotting: Users can toggle between plotting crossover signals (triangles) on the main price chart (location.abovebar/belowbar) or in the lower pane (location.top/bottom) using the Plot Signals on Main Chart option.
Crossover Signals: Generates bullish (Golden Cross) and bearish (Death Cross) signals when the short or long index crosses above 5 or below 95, respectively.
Visual Enhancements:
Plots short-term (blue) and long-term (white) indices in a separate pane with customizable lookback periods.
Includes horizontal reference lines at 0, 20, 50, 80, and 100, with green and red fills to highlight overbought/oversold zones.
Dynamic fill between indices (green when short > long, red when long > short) for quick trend visualization.
Displays a ticker and legend table in the top-right corner, showing the symbol and lookback periods.
Alert Conditions: Supports alerts for bullish and bearish crossovers on both short and long indices, enabling integration with TradingView's alert system.
Technical Innovation: Utilizes Pine Script v6's force_overlay parameter to plot signals on the main chart from a non-overlay indicator, combining the benefits of a separate pane and chart-based signals in a single script.
Technical Details
Calculation Logic:
Uses confirmed bars (barstate.isconfirmed) to calculate indices, ensuring reliability by avoiding real-time bar fluctuations.
Short-term index: (close - lowest(low, lookback_short)) / (highest(high, lookback_short) - lowest(low, lookback_short)) * 100
Long-term index: (close - lowest(low, lookback_long)) / (highest(high, lookback_long) - lowest(low, lookback_long)) * 100
Signals are triggered using ta.crossover() and ta.crossunder() for indices crossing 5 (bullish) and 95 (bearish).
Signal Plotting:
Main chart signals use force_overlay=true with location.abovebar/belowbar for precise alignment with price bars.
Lower pane signals use location.top/bottom for visibility within the indicator pane.
Plotting is controlled by boolean conditions (e.g., bullishLong and plot_on_chart) to ensure compliance with Pine Script's global scope requirements.
Performance Considerations: Optimized for efficiency by calculating indices only on confirmed bars and using lightweight plotting functions.
How to Use
Add to Chart:
Copy the script into TradingView's Pine Editor and add it to your chart.
Configure Settings:
Short Lookback Period: Adjust the short-term lookback (default: 50 bars) to match your trading style (e.g., 20 for shorter-term analysis).
Long Lookback Period: Adjust the long-term lookback (default: 200 bars) for broader market context.
Plot Signals on Main Chart: Check this box to display signals on the price chart; uncheck to show signals in the lower pane.
Interpret Signals:
Golden Cross (Bullish): Green (long) or blue (short) triangles indicate the index crossing above 5, suggesting a potential buying opportunity.
Death Cross (Bearish): Red (long) or white (short) triangles indicate the index crossing below 95, signaling a potential selling opportunity.
Set Alerts:
Use TradingView's alert system to create notifications for the four alert conditions: Long Index Valley, Long Index Peak, Short Index Valley, and Short Index Peak.
Customize Visuals:
The ticker table displays the symbol and lookback periods in the top-right corner.
Adjust colors and styles via TradingView's settings if desired.
Example Use Cases
Swing Trading: Use the short-term index (e.g., 50 bars) to identify short-term reversals within a broader trend defined by the long-term index.
Trend Confirmation: Monitor the fill between indices to confirm whether the short-term trend aligns with the long-term trend.
Automated Trading: Leverage alert conditions to integrate with bots or manual trading strategies.
Notes
Testing: Always backtest the indicator on your chosen market and timeframe to validate its effectiveness.
Optional Histogram: The script includes a commented-out histogram for the index difference (index_short - index_long). Uncomment the plot(index_diff, ...) line to enable it.
Compatibility: Built for Pine Script v6 and tested on TradingView as of May 27, 2025.
Acknowledgments
This indicator was inspired by the need for a flexible tool that combines lower-pane analysis with main chart signals, made possible by Pine Script's force_overlay feature. Share your feedback or suggestions in the comments below, and happy trading!
MTF Candle Direction Forecast + Breakdown🧭 MTF Candle Direction Forecast + Breakdown 🔥📈🔼
This script is a multi-timeframe (MTF) price action dashboard that helps traders assess real-time directional bias across five customizable timeframes — with a focus on candle behavior, trend alignment, and confidence strength.
📌 What It Does
For each timeframe, this dashboard summarizes:
Current direction → Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral
Confidence score (0–100) → How strongly price is likely to continue in that direction
Candle strength → 🔥 icon appears if the current candle has a large body relative to its range
Trend alignment:
📈 = EMA9 is above EMA20
🔼 = Price is above VWAP
Color-coded background to visually reinforce directional state
Each row gives you a visual “at-a-glance” readout of what price is doing right now — not in the past.
💡 Why It’s Useful
✅ Direction forecasting based on price action
Instead of lagging indicators, this script prioritizes:
Candle body-to-range ratio (momentum)
Real-time VWAP/EMA structure
Immediate price positioning
✅ Confidence is quantified
The score (0–100) helps you judge how reliable each directional signal is:
90+ → Strong conviction
50–70 → Mixed but potentially valid
<40 → Weak move or early signal
✅ Timeframe confluence at a glance
See whether multiple timeframes are aligning directionally — helpful for scalping, day trading, or waiting for multi-timeframe breakout setups.
✅ Visual & intuitive
Icons, colors, and layout make it easy to scan your dashboard instead of deciphering charts or code.
🛠️ Adjustable Settings
Setting Description
Timeframe 1–5 Choose any timeframes to monitor (e.g., 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h)
Candle Display Mode Show trend color via emoji (🟢/🔴) or background shading
Strong Candle Threshold Adjust the body-to-range % needed to trigger 🔥 strength
Bullish/Bearish Background Customize label color coding
Neutral Background (opacity) Set transparency or styling for flat/consolidating zones
Table Location Place the dashboard anywhere on the chart
🎯 Use Cases
Scalpers: Confirm trend across 1m/5m/15m before entering
Day Traders: Use confidence score to avoid low-momentum setups
Swing Traders: Monitor higher timeframes for trend shifts while tracking intraday noise
VWAP/EMA traders: Quickly see when price is reclaiming or losing critical trend levels
🧠 What Makes It Unique?
Unlike generic trend meters or mashups of standard indicators, this script:
Uses live candle dynamics (not just closes or lagging values)
Computes directional bias and confidence together
Visualizes strength and structure in a compact, readable interface
Let’s you filter by price action, not just indicator alignment
💥 Why Traders Love Will Love It
✅ Instant clarity on which timeframes agree
✅ No more guessing candle strength or trend health
✅ Confidence score keeps you out of weak trades
✅ Works with any strategy — trend following, VWAP reclaim, EMA scalps, even breakouts
✅ Keeps your chart clean — all the context, none of the clutter
⚠️ Transparency🧬 Under the Hood
Powered by live candle body analysis, trend structure (EMA9 vs EMA20), and VWAP placement.
All scores are generated in real-time — No repainting or lookahead bias: all values are computed with lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on
Confidence scores reflect the current candle only — they do not predict future moves but measure momentum and alignment in real-time
Labels update per bar and respond to subtle shifts in candle structure and trend indicators
✅ MTF Trend Snapshot (Live Output Example Shown in Chart Above)
This dashboard gives you a fast, visual summary of market trend and momentum across 5 timeframes. Here's what it's telling you right now:
🕔 5 Minute (5m)
📉 EMA Trend: Down
🔼 Price: Above VWAP
Direction: Bearish (42)
🟥 Weak bearish bias. Short-term pullback against a stronger trend. Use caution — lower confidence and mixed structure.
⏱️ 15 Minute (15m)
📈 EMA Trend: Up
🔼 Price: Above VWAP
Direction: Bullish (73)
🟩 Clean bullish structure with growing momentum. Solid for intraday confirmation.
🕧 30 Minute (30m)
📈 EMA Trend: Up
🔼 Price: Above VWAP
Direction: Bullish (77)
🟩 Stronger trend forming. Above VWAP and EMAs — building conviction.
🕐 1 Hour (1h)
📈 EMA Trend: Up
🔼 Price: Above VWAP
Direction: Bullish (70)
🟩 Confident, clean trend. Good alignment across indicators. Ideal timeframe for swing entries.
🕓 4 Hour (4h)
🔥 Strong Candle
📈 EMA Trend: Up
🔼 Price: Above VWAP
Direction: Bullish (100)
🟩 Full trend alignment with max momentum. Strong body candle + structure — high confidence continuation.
🧠 Quick Takeaway
🔻 5m is pulling back short term
✅ 15m through 4h are fully aligned Bullish
🔥 4h has max confidence — big-picture trend is intact
📈 Ideal setup for momentum traders looking to ride trend with multi-timeframe confirmation
Try pinning this dashboard to your chart during live trading to read price like a story across timeframes, and filter out weak setups with low-confidence noise.
Topological Market Stress (TMS) - Quantum FabricTopological Market Stress (TMS) - Quantum Fabric
What Stresses The Market?
Topological Market Stress (TMS) represents a revolutionary fusion of algebraic topology and quantum field theory applied to financial markets. Unlike traditional indicators that analyze price movements linearly, TMS examines the underlying topological structure of market data—detecting when the very fabric of market relationships begins to tear, warp, or collapse.
Drawing inspiration from the ethereal beauty of quantum field visualizations and the mathematical elegance of topological spaces, this indicator transforms complex mathematical concepts into an intuitive, visually stunning interface that reveals hidden market dynamics invisible to conventional analysis.
Theoretical Foundation: Topology Meets Markets
Topological Holes in Market Structure
In algebraic topology, a "hole" represents a fundamental structural break—a place where the normal connectivity of space fails. In markets, these topological holes manifest as:
Correlation Breakdown: When traditional price-volume relationships collapse
Volatility Clustering Failure: When volatility patterns lose their predictive power
Microstructure Stress: When market efficiency mechanisms begin to fail
The Mathematics of Market Topology
TMS constructs a topological space from market data using three key components:
1. Correlation Topology
ρ(P,V) = correlation(price, volume, period)
Hole Formation = 1 - |ρ(P,V)|
When price and volume decorrelate, topological holes begin forming.
2. Volatility Clustering Topology
σ(t) = volatility at time t
Clustering = correlation(σ(t), σ(t-1), period)
Breakdown = 1 - |Clustering|
Volatility clustering breakdown indicates structural instability.
3. Market Efficiency Topology
Efficiency = |price - EMA(price)| / ATR
Measures how far price deviates from its efficient trajectory.
Multi-Scale Topological Analysis
Markets exist across multiple temporal scales simultaneously. TMS analyzes topology at three distinct scales:
Micro Scale (3-15 periods): Immediate structural changes, market microstructure stress
Meso Scale (10-50 periods): Trend-level topology, medium-term structural shifts
Macro Scale (50-200 periods): Long-term structural topology, regime-level changes
The final stress metric combines all scales:
Combined Stress = 0.3×Micro + 0.4×Meso + 0.3×Macro
How TMS Works
1. Topological Space Construction
Each market moment is embedded in a multi-dimensional topological space where:
- Price efficiency forms one dimension
- Correlation breakdown forms another
- Volatility clustering breakdown forms the third
2. Hole Detection Algorithm
The indicator continuously scans this topological space for:
Hole Formation: When stress exceeds the formation threshold
Hole Persistence: How long structural breaks maintain
Hole Collapse: Sudden topology restoration (regime shifts)
3. Quantum Visualization Engine
The visualization system translates topological mathematics into intuitive quantum field representations:
Stress Waves: Main line showing topological stress intensity
Quantum Glow: Surrounding field indicating stress energy
Fabric Integrity: Background showing structural health
Multi-Scale Rings: Orbital representations of different timeframes
4. Signal Generation
Stable Topology (✨): Normal market structure, standard trading conditions
Stressed Topology (⚡): Increased structural tension, heightened volatility expected
Topological Collapse (🕳️): Major structural break, regime shift in progress
Critical Stress (🌋): Extreme conditions, maximum caution required
Inputs & Parameters
🕳️ Topological Parameters
Analysis Window (20-200, default: 50)
Primary period for topological analysis
20-30: High-frequency scalping, rapid structure detection
50: Balanced approach, recommended for most markets
100-200: Long-term position trading, major structural shifts only
Hole Formation Threshold (0.1-0.9, default: 0.3)
Sensitivity for detecting topological holes
0.1-0.2: Very sensitive, detects minor structural stress
0.3: Balanced, optimal for most market conditions
0.5-0.9: Conservative, only major structural breaks
Density Calculation Radius (0.1-2.0, default: 0.5)
Radius for local density estimation in topological space
0.1-0.3: Fine-grained analysis, sensitive to local changes
0.5: Standard approach, balanced sensitivity
1.0-2.0: Broad analysis, focuses on major structural features
Collapse Detection (0.5-0.95, default: 0.7)
Threshold for detecting sudden topology restoration
0.5-0.6: Very sensitive to regime changes
0.7: Balanced, reliable collapse detection
0.8-0.95: Conservative, only major regime shifts
📊 Multi-Scale Analysis
Enable Multi-Scale (default: true)
- Analyzes topology across multiple timeframes simultaneously
- Provides deeper insight into market structure at different scales
- Essential for understanding cross-timeframe topology interactions
Micro Scale Period (3-15, default: 5)
Fast scale for immediate topology changes
3-5: Ultra-fast, tick/minute data analysis
5-8: Fast, 5m-15m chart optimization
10-15: Medium-fast, 30m-1H chart focus
Meso Scale Period (10-50, default: 20)
Medium scale for trend topology analysis
10-15: Short trend structures
20-25: Medium trend structures (recommended)
30-50: Long trend structures
Macro Scale Period (50-200, default: 100)
Slow scale for structural topology
50-75: Medium-term structural analysis
100: Long-term structure (recommended)
150-200: Very long-term structural patterns
⚙️ Signal Processing
Smoothing Method (SMA/EMA/RMA/WMA, default: EMA) Method for smoothing stress signals
SMA: Simple average, stable but slower
EMA: Exponential, responsive and recommended
RMA: Running average, very smooth
WMA: Weighted average, balanced approach
Smoothing Period (1-10, default: 3)
Period for signal smoothing
1-2: Minimal smoothing, noisy but fast
3-5: Balanced, recommended for most applications
6-10: Heavy smoothing, slow but very stable
Normalization (Fixed/Adaptive/Rolling, default: Adaptive)
Method for normalizing stress values
Fixed: Static 0-1 range normalization
Adaptive: Dynamic range adjustment (recommended)
Rolling: Rolling window normalization
🎨 Quantum Visualization
Fabric Style Options:
Quantum Field: Flowing energy visualization with smooth gradients
Topological Mesh: Mathematical topology with stepped lines
Phase Space: Dynamical systems view with circular markers
Minimal: Clean, simple display with reduced visual elements
Color Scheme Options:
Quantum Gradient: Deep space blue → Quantum red progression
Thermal: Black → Hot orange thermal imaging style
Spectral: Purple → Gold full spectrum colors
Monochrome: Dark gray → Light gray elegant simplicity
Multi-Scale Rings (default: true)
- Display orbital rings for different time scales
- Visualizes how topology changes across timeframes
- Provides immediate visual feedback on cross-scale dynamics
Glow Intensity (0.0-1.0, default: 0.6)
Controls the quantum glow effect intensity
0.0: No glow, pure line display
0.6: Balanced, recommended setting
1.0: Maximum glow, full quantum field effect
📋 Dashboard & Alerts
Show Dashboard (default: true)
Real-time topology status display
Current market state and trading recommendations
Stress level visualization and fabric integrity status
Show Theory Guide (default: true)
Educational panel explaining topological concepts
Dashboard interpretation guide
Trading strategy recommendations
Enable Alerts (default: true)
Extreme stress detection alerts
Topological collapse notifications
Hole formation and recovery signals
Visual Logic & Interpretation
Main Visualization Elements
Quantum Stress Line
Primary indicator showing topological stress intensity
Color intensity reflects current market state
Line style varies based on selected fabric style
Glow effect indicates stress energy field
Equilibrium Line
Silver line showing average stress level
Reference point for normal market conditions
Helps identify when stress is elevated or suppressed
Upper/Lower Bounds
Red upper bound: High stress threshold
Green lower bound: Low stress threshold
Quantum fabric fill between bounds shows stress field
Multi-Scale Rings
Aqua circles : Micro-scale topology (immediate changes)
Orange circles: Meso-scale topology (trend-level changes)
Provides cross-timeframe topology visualization
Dashboard Information
Topology State Icons:
✨ STABLE: Normal market structure, standard trading conditions
⚡ STRESSED: Increased structural tension, monitor closely
🕳️ COLLAPSE: Major structural break, regime shift occurring
🌋 CRITICAL: Extreme conditions, reduce risk exposure
Stress Bar Visualization:
Visual representation of current stress level (0-100%)
Color-coded based on current topology state
Real-time percentage display
Fabric Integrity Dots:
●●●●● Intact: Strong market structure (0-30% stress)
●●●○○ Stressed: Weakening structure (30-70% stress)
●○○○○ Fractured: Breaking down structure (70-100% stress)
Action Recommendations:
✅ TRADE: Normal conditions, standard strategies apply
⚠️ WATCH: Monitor closely, increased vigilance required
🔄 ADAPT: Change strategy, regime shift in progress
🛑 REDUCE: Lower risk exposure, extreme conditions
Trading Strategies
In Stable Topology (✨ STABLE)
- Normal trading conditions apply
- Use standard technical analysis
- Regular position sizing appropriate
- Both trend-following and mean-reversion strategies viable
In Stressed Topology (⚡ STRESSED)
- Increased volatility expected
- Widen stop losses to account for higher volatility
- Reduce position sizes slightly
- Focus on high-probability setups
- Monitor for potential regime change
During Topological Collapse (🕳️ COLLAPSE)
- Major regime shift in progress
- Adapt strategy immediately to new market character
- Consider closing positions that rely on previous regime
- Wait for new topology to stabilize before major trades
- Opportunity for contrarian plays if collapse is extreme
In Critical Stress (🌋 CRITICAL)
- Extreme market conditions
- Significantly reduce risk exposure
- Avoid new positions until stress subsides
- Focus on capital preservation
- Consider hedging existing positions
Advanced Techniques
Multi-Timeframe Topology Analysis
- Use higher timeframe TMS for regime context
- Use lower timeframe TMS for precise entry timing
- Alignment across timeframes = highest probability trades
Topology Divergence Trading
- Most powerful at regime boundaries
- Price makes new high/low but topology stress decreases
- Early warning of potential reversals
- Combine with key support/resistance levels
Stress Persistence Analysis
- Long periods of stable topology often precede major moves
- Extended stress periods often resolve in regime changes
- Use persistence tracking for position sizing decisions
Originality & Innovation
TMS represents a genuine breakthrough in applying advanced mathematics to market analysis:
True Topological Analysis: Not a simplified proxy but actual topological space construction and hole detection using correlation breakdown, volatility clustering analysis, and market efficiency measurement.
Quantum Aesthetic: Transforms complex topology mathematics into an intuitive, visually stunning interface inspired by quantum field theory visualizations.
Multi-Scale Architecture: Simultaneous analysis across micro, meso, and macro timeframes provides unprecedented insight into market structure dynamics.
Regime Detection: Identifies fundamental market character changes before they become obvious in price action, providing early warning of structural shifts.
Practical Application: Clear, actionable signals derived from advanced mathematical concepts, making theoretical topology accessible to practical traders.
This is not a combination of existing indicators or a cosmetic enhancement of standard tools. It represents a fundamental reimagining of how we measure, visualize, and interpret market dynamics through the lens of algebraic topology and quantum field theory.
Best Practices
Start with defaults: Parameters are optimized for broad market applicability
Match timeframe: Adjust scales based on your trading timeframe
Confirm with price action: TMS shows market character, not direction
Respect topology changes: Reduce risk during regime transitions
Use appropriate strategies: Adapt approach based on current topology state
Monitor persistence: Track how long topology states maintain
Cross-timeframe analysis: Align multiple timeframes for highest probability trades
Alerts Available
Extreme Topological Stress: Market fabric under severe deformation
Topological Collapse Detected: Regime shift in progress
Topological Hole Forming: Market structure breakdown detected
Topology Stabilizing: Market structure recovering to normal
Chart Requirements
Recommended Markets: All liquid markets (forex, stocks, crypto, futures)
Optimal Timeframes: 5m to Daily (adaptable to any timeframe)
Minimum History: 200 bars for proper topology construction
Best Performance: Markets with clear regime characteristics
Academic Foundation
This indicator draws from cutting-edge research in:
- Algebraic topology and persistent homology
- Quantum field theory visualization techniques
- Market microstructure analysis
- Multi-scale dynamical systems theory
- Correlation topology and network analysis
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or provide direct buy/sell signals. Topological analysis reveals market structure characteristics, not future price direction. Always use proper risk management and combine with your own analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
See markets through the lens of topology. Trade the structure, not the noise.
Bringing advanced mathematics to practical trading through quantum-inspired visualization.
Trade with insight. Trade with structure.
— Dskyz , for DAFE Trading Systems
Reflexivity Resonance Factor (RRF) - Quantum Flow Reflexivity Resonance Factor (RRF) – Quantum Flow
See the Feedback Loops. Anticipate the Regime Shift.
What is the RRF – Quantum Flow?
The Reflexivity Resonance Factor (RRF) – Quantum Flow is a next-generation market regime detector and energy oscillator, inspired by George Soros’ theory of reflexivity and modern complexity science. It is designed for traders who want to visualize the hidden feedback loops between market perception and participation, and to anticipate explosive regime shifts before they unfold.
Unlike traditional oscillators, RRF does not just measure price momentum or volatility. Instead, it models the dynamic feedback between how the market perceives itself (perception) and how it acts on that perception (participation). When these feedback loops synchronize, they create “resonance” – a state of amplified reflexivity that often precedes major market moves.
Theoretical Foundation
Reflexivity: Markets are not just driven by external information, but by participants’ perceptions and their actions, which in turn influence future perceptions. This feedback loop can create self-reinforcing trends or sudden reversals.
Resonance: When perception and participation align and reinforce each other, the market enters a high-energy, reflexive state. These “resonance” events often mark the start of new trends or the climax of existing ones.
Energy Field: The indicator quantifies the “energy” of the market’s reflexivity, allowing you to see when the crowd is about to act in unison.
How RRF – Quantum Flow Works
Perception Proxy: Measures the rate of change in price (ROC) over a configurable period, then smooths it with an EMA. This models how quickly the market’s collective perception is shifting.
Participation Proxy: Uses a fast/slow ATR ratio to gauge the intensity of market participation (volatility expansion/contraction).
Reflexivity Core: Multiplies perception and participation to model the feedback loop.
Resonance Detection: Applies Z-score normalization to the absolute value of reflexivity, highlighting when current feedback is unusually strong compared to recent history.
Energy Calculation: Scales resonance to a 0–100 “energy” value, visualized as a dynamic background.
Regime Strength: Tracks the percentage of bars in a lookback window where resonance exceeded the threshold, quantifying the persistence of reflexive regimes.
Inputs:
🧬 Core Parameters
Perception Period (pp_roc_len, default 14): Lookback for price ROC.
Lower (5–10): More sensitive, for scalping (1–5min).
Default (14): Balanced, for 15min–1hr.
Higher (20–30): Smoother, for 4hr–daily.
Perception Smooth (pp_smooth_len, default 7): EMA smoothing for perception.
Lower (3–5): Faster, more detail.
Default (7): Balanced.
Higher (10–15): Smoother, less noise.
Participation Fast (prp_fast_len, default 7): Fast ATR for immediate volatility.
5–7: Scalping.
7–10: Day trading.
10–14: Swing trading.
Participation Slow (prp_slow_len, default 21): Slow ATR for baseline volatility.
Should be 2–4x fast ATR.
Default (21): Works with fast=7.
⚡ Signal Configuration
Resonance Window (res_z_window, default 50): Z-score lookback for resonance normalization.
20–30: More reactive.
50: Medium-term.
100+: Very stable.
Primary Threshold (rrf_threshold, default 1.5): Z-score level for “Active” resonance.
1.0–1.5: More signals.
1.5: Balanced.
2.0+: Only strong signals.
Extreme Threshold (rrf_extreme, default 2.5): Z-score for “Extreme” resonance.
2.5: Major regime shifts.
3.0+: Only the most extreme.
Regime Window (regime_window, default 100): Lookback for regime strength (% of bars with resonance spikes).
Higher: More context, slower.
Lower: Adapts quickly.
🎨 Visual Settings
Show Resonance Flow (show_flow, default true): Plots the main resonance line with glow effects.
Show Signal Particles (show_particles, default true): Circular markers at active/extreme resonance points.
Show Energy Field (show_energy, default true): Background color based on resonance energy.
Show Info Dashboard (show_dashboard, default true): Status panel with resonance metrics.
Show Trading Guide (show_guide, default true): On-chart quick reference for interpreting signals.
Color Mode (color_mode, default "Spectrum"): Visual theme for all elements.
“Spectrum”: Cyan→Magenta (high contrast)
“Heat”: Yellow→Red (heat map)
“Ocean”: Blue gradients (easy on eyes)
“Plasma”: Orange→Purple (vibrant)
Color Schemes
Dynamic color gradients are used for all plots and backgrounds, adapting to both resonance intensity and direction:
Spectrum: Cyan/Magenta for bullish/bearish resonance.
Heat: Yellow/Red for bullish, Blue/Purple for bearish.
Ocean: Blue gradients for both directions.
Plasma: Orange/Purple for high-energy states.
Glow and aura effects: The resonance line is layered with multiple glows for depth and signal strength.
Background energy field: Darker = higher energy = stronger reflexivity.
Visual Logic
Main Resonance Line: Shows the smoothed resonance value, color-coded by direction and intensity.
Glow/Aura: Multiple layers for visual depth and to highlight strong signals.
Threshold Zones: Dotted lines and filled areas mark “Active” and “Extreme” resonance zones.
Signal Particles: Circular markers at each “Active” (primary threshold) and “Extreme” (extreme threshold) event.
Dashboard: Top-right panel shows current status (Dormant, Building, Active, Extreme), resonance value, energy %, and regime strength.
Trading Guide: Bottom-right panel explains all states and how to interpret them.
How to Use RRF – Quantum Flow
Dormant (💤): Market is in equilibrium. Wait for resonance to build.
Building (🌊): Resonance is rising but below threshold. Prepare for a move.
Active (🔥): Resonance exceeds primary threshold. Reflexivity is significant—consider entries or exits.
Extreme (⚡): Resonance exceeds extreme threshold. Major regime shift likely—watch for trend acceleration or reversal.
Energy >70%: High conviction, crowd is acting in unison.
Above 0: Bullish reflexivity (positive feedback).
Below 0: Bearish reflexivity (negative feedback).
Regime Strength: % of bars in “Active” state—higher = more persistent regime.
Tips:
- Use lower lookbacks for scalping, higher for swing trading.
- Combine with price action or your own system for confirmation.
- Works on all assets and timeframes—tune to your style.
Alerts
RRF Activation: Resonance crosses above primary threshold.
RRF Extreme: Resonance crosses above extreme threshold.
RRF Deactivation: Resonance falls below primary threshold.
Originality & Usefulness
RRF – Quantum Flow is not a mashup of existing indicators. It is a novel oscillator that models the feedback loop between perception and participation, then quantifies and visualizes the resulting resonance. The multi-layered color logic, energy field, and regime strength dashboard are unique to this script. It is designed for anticipation, not confirmation—helping you see regime shifts before they are obvious in price.
Chart Info
Script Name: Reflexivity Resonance Factor (RRF) – Quantum Flow
Recommended Use: Any asset, any timeframe. Tune parameters to your style.
Disclaimer
This script is for research and educational purposes only. It does not provide financial advice or direct buy/sell signals. Always use proper risk management and combine with your own strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
— Dskyz , for DAFE Trading Systems
Momentum Long + Short Strategy (BTC 3H)Momentum Long + Short Strategy (BTC 3H)
🔍 How It Works, Step by Step
Detect the Trend (📈/📉)
Calculate two moving averages (100-period and 500-period), either EMA or SMA.
For longs, we require MA100 > MA500 (uptrend).
For shorts, we block entries if MA100 exceeds MA500 by more than a set percentage (to avoid fading a powerful uptrend).
Apply Momentum Filters (⚡️)
RSI Filter: Measures recent strength—only allow longs when RSI crosses above its smoothed average, and shorts when RSI dips below the oversold threshold.
ADX Filter: Gauges trend strength—ensures we only enter when a meaningful trend exists (optional).
ATR Filter: Confirms volatility—avoids choppy, low-volatility conditions by requiring ATR to exceed its smoothed value (optional).
Confirm Entry Conditions (✅)
Long Entry:
Price is above both MAs
Trend alignment & optional filters pass ✅
Short Entry:
Price is below both MAs and below the lower Bollinger Band
RSI is sufficiently oversold
Trend-blocker & ATR filter pass ✅
Position Sizing & Risk (💰)
Each trade uses 100 % of account equity by default.
One pyramid addition allowed, so you can scale in if the move continues.
Commission and slippage assumptions built in for realistic backtests.
Stops & Exits (🛑)
Long Stop-Loss: e.g. 3 % below entry.
Long Auto-Exit: If price falls back under the 500-period MA.
Short Stop-Loss: e.g. 3 % above entry.
Short Take-Profit: e.g. 4 % below entry.
🎨 Why It’s Powerful & Customizable
Modular Filters: Turn on/off RSI, ADX, ATR filters to suit different market regimes.
Adjustable Thresholds: Fine-tune stop-loss %, take-profit %, RSI lengths, MA gaps and more.
Multi-Timeframe Potential: Although coded for 3 h BTC, you can adapt it to stocks, forex or other cryptos—just recalibrate!
Backtest Fine-Tuned: Default settings were optimized via backtesting on historical BTC data—but they’re not guarantees of future performance.
⚠️ Warning & Disclaimer
This strategy is for educational purposes only and designed for a toy fund. Crypto markets are highly volatile—you can lose 100 % of your capital. It is not a predictive “holy grail” but a rules-based framework using past data. The parameters have been fine-tuned on historical data and are not valid for future trades without fresh calibration. Always practice with paper-trading first, use proper risk management, and do your own research before risking real money. 🚨🔒
Good luck exploring and experimenting! 🚀📊
Momentum TrackerDescription
To screen for momentum movers, one can filter for stocks that have made a noticeable move over a set period. This initial move defines the momentum or swing move. From this list of candidates, we can create a watchlist by selecting those showing a momentum pause, such as a pullback or consolidation, which later could set up for a continuation.
Momentum = Magnitude × Time
This Momentum Tracker indicator serves as a study tool to visualize when stocks historically met these momentum conditions. It marks on the chart where a stock would have appeared on the screener, allowing us to review past momentum patterns and screener requirements. The indicator measures momentum in three different ways:
Normalized Momentum
Identifies when the current price reaches a new high or low compared to a historical window. This is the most standardized measurement and adapts well across markets.
Normalized = Current Price ≥ Maximum Price in Lookback
Normalized = Current Price ≤ Minimum Price in Lookback
Relative Momentum
Measures the percentage difference between a fast and a slow moving average. This method helps capture acceleration, the rate at which momentum is building over time.
Relative = |Fast MA − Slow MA| ÷ Slow MA × 100
Absolute Momentum
Measures how far price has moved from the highest or lowest point within a defined lookback period.
Absolute = (Current Price − Lowest Price) ÷ Lowest Price × 100
Absolute = (Highest Price − Current Price) ÷ Highest Price × 100
Customization
The tool is customizable in terms of lookback period and thresholds to accommodate different trading styles and timeframes, allowing users to set criteria that align with specific hold times and momentum requirements. While the various calculations can be enabled, the tool is best used in isolation of each to visualize different momentum conditions.
Parameter Free RSI [InvestorUnknown]The Parameter Free RSI (PF-RSI) is an innovative adaptation of the traditional Relative Strength Index (RSI), a widely used momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. Unlike the standard RSI, which relies on a fixed lookback period (typically 14), the PF-RSI dynamically adjusts its calculation length based on real-time market conditions. By incorporating volatility and the RSI's deviation from its midpoint (50), this indicator aims to provide a more responsive and adaptable tool for identifying overbought/oversold conditions, trend shifts, and momentum changes. This adaptability makes it particularly valuable for traders navigating diverse market environments, from trending to ranging conditions.
PF-RSI offers a suite of customizable features, including dynamic length variants, smoothing options, visualization tools, and alert conditions.
Key Features
1. Dynamic RSI Length Calculation
The cornerstone of the PF-RSI is its ability to adjust the RSI calculation period dynamically, eliminating the need for a static parameter. The length is computed using two primary factors:
Volatility: Measured via the standard deviation of past RSI values.
Distance from Midpoint: The absolute deviation of the RSI from 50, reflecting the strength of bullish or bearish momentum.
The indicator offers three variants for calculating this dynamic length, allowing users to tailor its responsiveness:
Variant I (Aggressive): Increases the length dramatically based on volatility and a nonlinear scaling of the distance from 50. Ideal for traders seeking highly sensitive signals in fast-moving markets.
Variant II (Moderate): Combines volatility with a scaled distance from 50, using a less aggressive adjustment. Strikes a balance between responsiveness and stability, suitable for most trading scenarios.
Variant III (Conservative): Applies a linear combination of volatility and raw distance from 50. Offers a stable, less reactive length adjustment for traders prioritizing consistency.
// Function that returns a dynamic RSI length based on past RSI values
// The idea is to make the RSI length adaptive using volatility (stdev) and distance from the RSI midpoint (50)
// Different "variant" options control how aggressively the length changes
parameter_free_length(free_rsi, variant) =>
len = switch variant
// Variant I: Most aggressive adaptation
// Uses standard deviation scaled by a nonlinear factor of distance from 50
// Also adds another distance-based term to increase length more dramatically
"I" => math.ceil(
ta.stdev(free_rsi, math.ceil(free_rsi)) *
math.pow(1 + (math.ceil(math.abs(50 - (free_rsi - 50))) / 100), 2)
) +
(
math.ceil(math.abs(free_rsi - 50)) *
(1 + (math.ceil(math.abs(50 - (free_rsi - 50))) / 100))
)
// Variant II: Moderate adaptation
// Adds the standard deviation and a distance-based scaling term (less nonlinear)
"II" => math.ceil(
ta.stdev(free_rsi, math.ceil(free_rsi)) +
(
math.ceil(math.abs(free_rsi - 50)) *
(1 + (math.ceil(math.abs(50 - (free_rsi - 50))) / 100))
)
)
// Variant III: Least aggressive adaptation
// Simply adds standard deviation and raw distance from 50 (linear scaling)
"III" => math.ceil(
ta.stdev(free_rsi, math.ceil(free_rsi)) +
math.ceil(math.abs(free_rsi - 50))
)
2. Smoothing Options
To refine the dynamic RSI and reduce noise, the PF-RSI provides smoothing capabilities:
Smoothing Toggle: Enable or disable smoothing of the dynamic length used for RSI.
Smoothing MA Type for RSI MA: Choose between SMA and EMA
Smoothing Length Options for RSI MA:
Full: Uses the entire calculated dynamic length.
Half: Applies half of the dynamic length for smoother output.
SQRT: Uses the square root of the dynamic length, offering a compromise between responsiveness and smoothness.
The smoothed RSI is complemented by a separate moving average (MA) of the RSI itself, further enhancing signal clarity.
3. Visualization Tools
The PF-RSI includes visualization options to help traders interpret market conditions at a glance.
Plots:
Dynamic RSI: Displayed as a white line, showing the adaptive RSI value.
RSI Moving Average: Plotted in yellow, providing a smoothed reference for trend and momentum analysis.
Dynamic Length: A secondary plot (in faint white) showing how the calculation period evolves over time.
Histogram: Represents the RSI’s position relative to 50, with color gradients.
Fill Area: The space between the RSI and its MA is filled with a gradient (green for RSI > MA, red for RSI < MA), highlighting momentum shifts.
Customizable bar colors on the price chart reflect trend and momentum:
Trend (Raw RSI): Green (RSI > 50), Red (RSI < 50).
Trend (RSI MA): Green (MA > 50), Red (MA < 50).
Trend (Raw RSI) + Momentum: Adds momentum shading (lighter green/red when RSI and MA diverge).
Trend (RSI MA) + Momentum: Similar, but based on the MA’s trend.
Momentum: Green (RSI > MA), Red (RSI < MA).
Off: Disables bar coloring.
Intrabar Updating: Optional real-time updates within each bar for enhanced responsiveness.
4. Alerts
The PF-RSI supports customizable alerts to keep traders informed of key events.
Trend Alerts:
Raw RSI: Triggers when the RSI crosses above (uptrend) or below (downtrend) 50.
RSI MA: Triggers when the moving average crosses 50.
Off: Disables trend alerts.
Momentum Alerts:
Triggers when the RSI crosses its moving average, indicating rising (RSI > MA) or declining (RSI < MA) momentum.
Alerts are fired once per bar close, with descriptive messages including the ticker symbol (e.g., " Uptrend on: AAPL").
How It Works
The PF-RSI operates in a multi-step process:
Initialization
On the first run, it calculates a standard RSI with a 14-period length to seed the dynamic calculation.
Dynamic Length Computation
Once seeded, the indicator switches to a dynamic length based on the selected variant, factoring in volatility and distance from 50.
If smoothing is enabled, the length is further refined using an SMA.
RSI Calculation
The adaptive RSI is computed using the dynamic length, ensuring it reflects current market conditions.
Moving Average
A separate MA (SMA or EMA) is applied to the RSI, with a length derived from the dynamic length (Full, Half, or SQRT).
Visualization and Alerts
The results are plotted, and alerts are triggered based on user settings.
This adaptive approach minimizes lag in fast markets and reduces false signals in choppy conditions, offering a significant edge over fixed-period RSI implementations.
Why Use PF-RSI?
The Parameter Free RSI stands out by eliminating the guesswork of selecting an RSI period. Its dynamic length adjusts to market volatility and momentum, providing timely signals without manual tweaking.
Bitcoin Monthly Seasonality [Alpha Extract]The Bitcoin Monthly Seasonality indicator analyzes historical Bitcoin price performance across different months of the year, enabling traders to identify seasonal patterns and potential trading opportunities. This tool helps traders:
Visualize which months historically perform best and worst for Bitcoin.
Track average returns and win rates for each month of the year.
Identify seasonal patterns to enhance trading strategies.
Compare cumulative or individual monthly performance.
🔶 CALCULATION
The indicator processes historical Bitcoin price data to calculate monthly performance metrics
Monthly Return Calculation
Inputs:
Monthly open and close prices.
User-defined lookback period (1-15 years).
Return Types:
Percentage: (monthEndPrice / monthStartPrice - 1) × 100
Price: monthEndPrice - monthStartPrice
Statistical Measures
Monthly Averages: ◦ Average return for each month calculated from historical data.
Win Rate: ◦ Percentage of positive returns for each month.
Best/Worst Detection: ◦ Identifies months with highest and lowest average returns.
Cumulative Option
Standard View: Shows discrete monthly performance.
Cumulative View: Shows compounding effect of consecutive months.
Example Calculation (Pine Script):
monthReturn = returnType == "Percentage" ?
(monthEndPrice / monthStartPrice - 1) * 100 :
monthEndPrice - monthStartPrice
calcWinRate(arr) =>
winCount = 0
totalCount = array.size(arr)
if totalCount > 0
for i = 0 to totalCount - 1
if array.get(arr, i) > 0
winCount += 1
(winCount / totalCount) * 100
else
0.0
🔶 DETAILS
Visual Features
Monthly Performance Bars: ◦ Color-coded bars (teal for positive, red for negative returns). ◦ Special highlighting for best (yellow) and worst (fuchsia) months.
Optional Trend Line: ◦ Shows continuous performance across months.
Monthly Axis Labels: ◦ Clear month names for easy reference.
Statistics Table: ◦ Comprehensive view of monthly performance metrics. ◦ Color-coded rows based on performance.
Interpretation
Strong Positive Months: Historically bullish periods for Bitcoin.
Strong Negative Months: Historically bearish periods for Bitcoin.
Win Rate Analysis: Higher win rates indicate more consistently positive months.
Pattern Recognition: Identify recurring seasonal patterns across years.
Best/Worst Identification: Quickly spot the historically strongest and weakest months.
🔶 EXAMPLES
The indicator helps identify key seasonal patterns
Bullish Seasons: Visualize historically strong months where Bitcoin tends to perform well, allowing traders to align long positions with favorable seasonality.
Bearish Seasons: Identify historically weak months where Bitcoin tends to underperform, helping traders avoid unfavorable periods or consider short positions.
Seasonal Strategy Development: Create trading strategies that capitalize on recurring monthly patterns, such as entering positions in historically strong months and reducing exposure during weak months.
Year-to-Year Comparison: Assess how current year performance compares to historical seasonal patterns to identify anomalies or confirmation of trends.
🔶 SETTINGS
Customization Options
Lookback Period: Adjust the number of years (1-15) used for historical analysis.
Return Type: Choose between percentage returns or absolute price changes.
Cumulative Option: Toggle between discrete monthly performance or cumulative effect.
Visual Style Options: Bar Display: Enable/disable and customize colors for positive/negative bars, Line Display: Enable/disable and customize colors for trend line, Axes Display: Show/hide reference axes.
Visual Enhancement: Best/Worst Month Highlighting: Toggle special highlighting of extreme months, Custom highlight colors for best and worst performing months.
The Bitcoin Monthly Seasonality indicator provides traders with valuable insights into Bitcoin's historical performance patterns throughout the year, helping to identify potentially favorable and unfavorable trading periods based on seasonal tendencies.
EXODUS EXODUS by (DAFE) Trading Systems
EXODUS is a sophisticated trading algorithm built by Dskyz (DAFE) Trading Systems for competitive and competition purposes, designed to identify high-probability trades with robust risk management. this strategy leverages a multi-signal voting system, combining three core components—SPR, VWMO, and VEI—alongside ADX, choppiness filters, and ATR-based volatility gates to ensure trades are taken only in favorable market conditions. the algo uses a take-profit to stop-loss ratio, dynamic position sizing, and a strict voting mechanism requiring all signals to align before entering a trade.
EXODUS was not overfitted for any specific symbol. instead, it uses a generic tuned setting, making it versatile across various markets. while it can trade futures, it’s not currently set up for it but has the potential to do more with further development. visuals are intentionally minimal due to its competition focus, prioritizing performance over aesthetics. a more visually stunning version may be released in the future with enhanced graphics.
The Unique Core Components Developed for EXODUS
SPR (Session Price Recalibration)
SPR measures momentum during regular trading hours (RTH, 0930-1600, America/New_York) to catch session-specific trends.
spr_lookback = input.int(15, "SPR Lookback") this sets how many bars back SPR looks to calculate momentum (default 15 bars). it compares the current session’s price-volume score to the score 15 bars ago to gauge momentum strength.
how it works: a longer lookback smooths out the signal, focusing on bigger trends. a shorter one makes SPR more sensitive to recent moves.
how to adjust: on a 1-hour chart, 15 bars is 15 hours (about 2 trading days). if you’re on a shorter timeframe like 5 minutes, 15 bars is just 75 minutes, so you might want to increase it to 50 or 100 to capture more meaningful trends. if you’re trading a choppy stock, a shorter lookback (like 5) can help catch quick moves, but it might give more false signals.
spr_threshold = input.float (0.7, "SPR Threshold")
this is the cutoff for SPR to vote for a trade (default 0.7). if SPR’s normalized value is above 0.7, it votes for a long; below -0.7, it votes for a short.
how it works: SPR normalizes its momentum score by ATR, so this threshold ensures only strong moves count. a higher threshold means fewer trades but higher conviction.
how to adjust: if you’re getting too few trades, lower it to 0.5 to let more signals through. if you’re seeing too many false entries, raise it to 1.0 for stricter filtering. test on your chart to find a balance.
spr_atr_length = input.int(21, "SPR ATR Length") this sets the ATR period (default 21 bars) used to normalize SPR’s momentum score. ATR measures volatility, so this makes SPR’s signal relative to market conditions.
how it works: a longer ATR period (like 21) smooths out volatility, making SPR less jumpy. a shorter one makes it more reactive.
how to adjust: if you’re trading a volatile stock like TSLA, a longer period (30 or 50) can help avoid noise. for a calmer stock, try 10 to make SPR more responsive. match this to your timeframe—shorter timeframes might need a shorter ATR.
rth_session = input.session("0930-1600","SPR: RTH Sess.") rth_timezone = "America/New_York" this defines the session SPR uses (0930-1600, New York time). SPR only calculates momentum during these hours to focus on RTH activity.
how it works: it ignores pre-market or after-hours noise, ensuring SPR captures the main market action.
how to adjust: if you trade a different session (like London hours, 0300-1200 EST), change the session to match. you can also adjust the timezone if you’re in a different region, like "Europe/London". just make sure your chart’s timezone aligns with this setting.
VWMO (Volume-Weighted Momentum Oscillator)
VWMO measures momentum weighted by volume to spot sustained, high-conviction moves.
vwmo_momlen = input.int(21, "VWMO Momentum Length") this sets how many bars back VWMO looks to calculate price momentum (default 21 bars). it takes the price change (close minus close 21 bars ago).
how it works: a longer period captures bigger trends, while a shorter one reacts to recent swings.
how to adjust: on a daily chart, 21 bars is about a month—good for trend trading. on a 5-minute chart, it’s just 105 minutes, so you might bump it to 50 or 100 for more meaningful moves. if you want faster signals, drop it to 10, but expect more noise.
vwmo_volback = input.int(30, "VWMO Volume Lookback") this sets the period for calculating average volume (default 30 bars). VWMO weights momentum by volume divided by this average.
how it works: it compares current volume to the average to see if a move has strong participation. a longer lookback smooths the average, while a shorter one makes it more sensitive.
how to adjust: for stocks with spiky volume (like NVDA on earnings), a longer lookback (50 or 100) avoids overreacting to one-off spikes. for steady volume stocks, try 20. match this to your timeframe—shorter timeframes might need a shorter lookback.
vwmo_smooth = input.int(9, "VWMO Smoothing")
this sets the SMA period to smooth VWMO’s raw momentum (default 9 bars).
how it works: smoothing reduces noise in the signal, making VWMO more reliable for voting. a longer smoothing period cuts more noise but adds lag.
how to adjust: if VWMO is too jumpy (lots of false votes), increase to 15. if it’s too slow and missing trades, drop to 5. test on your chart to see what keeps the signal clean but responsive.
vwmo_threshold = input.float(10, "VWMO Threshold") this is the cutoff for VWMO to vote for a trade (default 10). above 10, it votes for a long; below -10, a short.
how it works: it ensures only strong momentum signals count. a higher threshold means fewer but stronger trades.
how to adjust: if you want more trades, lower it to 5. if you’re getting too many weak signals, raise it to 15. this depends on your market—volatile stocks might need a higher threshold to filter noise.
VEI (Velocity Efficiency Index)
VEI measures market efficiency and velocity to filter out choppy moves and focus on strong trends.
vei_eflen = input.int(14, "VEI Efficiency Smoothing") this sets the EMA period for smoothing VEI’s efficiency calc (bar range / volume, default 14 bars).
how it works: efficiency is how much price moves per unit of volume. smoothing it with an EMA reduces noise, focusing on consistent efficiency. a longer period smooths more but adds lag.
how to adjust: for choppy markets, increase to 20 to filter out noise. for faster markets, drop to 10 for quicker signals. this should match your timeframe—shorter timeframes might need a shorter period.
vei_momlen = input.int(8, "VEI Momentum Length") this sets how many bars back VEI looks to calculate momentum in efficiency (default 8 bars).
how it works: it measures the change in smoothed efficiency over 8 bars, then adjusts for inertia (volume-to-range). a longer period captures bigger shifts, while a shorter one reacts faster.
how to adjust: if VEI is missing quick reversals, drop to 5. if it’s too noisy, raise to 12. test on your chart to see what catches the right moves without too many false signals.
vei_threshold = input.float(4.5, "VEI Threshold") this is the cutoff for VEI to vote for a trade (default 4.5). above 4.5, it votes for a long; below -4.5, a short.
how it works: it ensures only strong, efficient moves count. a higher threshold means fewer trades but higher quality.
how to adjust: if you’re not getting enough trades, lower to 3. if you’re seeing too many false entries, raise to 6. this depends on your market—fast stocks like NQ1 might need a lower threshold.
Features
Multi-Signal Voting: requires all three signals (SPR, VWMO, VEI) to align for a trade, ensuring high-probability setups.
Risk Management: uses ATR-based stops (2.1x) and take-profits (4.1x), with dynamic position sizing based on a risk percentage (default 0.4%).
Market Filters: ADX (default 27) ensures trending conditions, choppiness index (default 54.5) avoids sideways markets, and ATR expansion (default 1.12) confirms volatility.
Dashboard: provides real-time stats like SPR, VWMO, VEI values, net P/L, win rate, and streak, with a clean, functional design.
Visuals
EXODUS prioritizes performance over visuals, as it was built for competitive and competition purposes. entry/exit signals are marked with simple labels and shapes, and a basic heatmap highlights market regimes. a more visually stunning update may be released later, with enhanced graphics and overlays.
Usage
EXODUS is designed for stocks and ETFs but can be adapted for futures with adjustments. it performs best in trending markets with sufficient volatility, as confirmed by its generic tuning across symbols like TSLA, AMD, NVDA, and NQ1. adjust inputs like SPR threshold, VWMO smoothing, or VEI momentum length to suit specific assets or timeframes.
Setting I used: (Again, these are a generic setting, each security needs to be fine tuned)
SPR LB = 19 SPR TH = 0.5 SPR ATR L= 21 SPR RTH Sess: 9:30 – 16:00
VWMO L = 21 VWMO LB = 18 VWMO S = 6 VWMO T = 8
VEI ES = 14 VEI ML = 21 VEI T = 4
R % = 0.4
ATR L = 21 ATR M (S) =1.1 TP Multi = 2.1 ATR min mult = 0.8 ATR Expansion = 1.02
ADX L = 21 Min ADX = 25
Choppiness Index = 14 Chop. Max T = 55.5
Backtesting: TSLA
Frame: Jan 02, 2018, 08:00 — May 01, 2025, 09:00
Slippage: 3
Commission .01
Disclaimer
this strategy is for educational purposes. past performance is not indicative of future results. trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. always backtest and validate any strategy before using it in live markets.
(This publishing will most likely be taken down do to some miscellaneous rule about properly displaying charting symbols, or whatever. Once I've identified what part of the publishing they want to pick on, I'll adjust and repost.)
About the Author
Dskyz (DAFE) Trading Systems is dedicated to building high-performance trading algorithms. EXODUS is a product of rigorous research and development, aimed at delivering consistent, and data-driven trading solutions.
Use it with discipline. Use it with clarity. Trade smarter.
**I will continue to release incredible strategies and indicators until I turn this into a brand or until someone offers me a contract.
2025 Created by Dskyz, powered by DAFE Trading Systems. Trade smart, trade bold.
ATR Strength Index~~~~~~~ATRRSI~~~~~~~~~
Understanding the ATR Strength IndexThe "ATR Strength Index" (ATR SI) is a custom technical indicator derived by applying the calculation methodology of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to the values of the Average True Range (ATR).
While the standard RSI measures the momentum of price changes, the ATR SI measures the momentum of volatility itself, as represented by the ATR.It is important to note that this is not a standard, widely recognised indicator like the traditional RSI or ATR.
It's a custom construction designed to provide a different perspective on market dynamics – specifically, the speed and magnitude of changes in volatility.
How it is Calculated
The calculation of the ATR Strength Index follows the same steps as the standard RSI, but the input data is the ATR value for each period, rather than the price.Let ATRi be the Average True Range value for the current period i.Let ATRi−1 be the Average True Range value for the previous period i−1.Calculate the period-over-period change in ATR:ΔATRi=ATRi−ATRi−1Separate ATR Gains and ATR Losses:If ΔATRi>0, then ATR,Gaini=ΔATRi and ATR,Lossi=0.If ΔATRi<0, then ATR,Gaini=0 and ATR,Lossi=∣ΔATRi∣.If ΔATRi=0, then ATR,Gaini=0 and ATR,Lossi=0.Calculate the Smoothed Average ATR Gain and Average ATR Loss over a specified lookback period (let's call this the "RSI Length" or n).
This typically uses a smoothing method similar to Wilder's original RSI calculation (a modified moving average or exponential moving average).Average,ATR,Gainn=Smoothed Average of ATR,Gain over n periodsAverage,ATR,Lossn=Smoothed Average of ATR,Loss over n periodsCalculate the ATR Relative Strength (ATR RS):ATR,RSn=Average,ATR,LossnAverage,ATR,GainnCalculate the ATR Strength Index:ATR,SIn=100−1+ATR,RSn100The resulting index oscillates between 0 and 100, just like the standard RSI.
How to Use It
Interpreting the ATR Strength Index focuses on the momentum of volatility rather than price momentum:High Values (e.g., above 70): Indicate that volatility (as measured by ATR) has been increasing rapidly over the chosen period.
This could suggest a market transitioning from a period of low volatility to high volatility, potentially preceding or accompanying strong directional price moves or increased choppiness.Low Values (e.g., below 30): Indicate that volatility has been decreasing rapidly.
This could suggest a market transitioning from high volatility to low volatility, potentially entering a period of consolidation or ranging price action.Midline (50): Represents a balance between increasing and decreasing volatility momentum.Divergence: You could potentially look for divergence between the ATR value itself and the ATR Strength Index. For example, if ATR is making higher highs but the ATR SI is making lower highs, it might suggest that while volatility is still increasing, the speed of that increase is slowing down. The interpretation and reliability of such divergence would need careful testing.
This indicator is best used as a supplementary tool to gain insight into the underlying volatility dynamics of the market, rather than as a primary signal generator for price direction.
It can help in understanding the current market environment – whether volatility is picking up or dying down – which can inform the suitability of different trading strategies (e.g., trend-following strategies might be more effective when volatility momentum is high, while range-bound strategies might suit periods of low volatility momentum).
Uniqueness
The ATR Strength Index is unique because it applies a momentum oscillator's logic (RSI) to a volatility indicator's output (ATR).Standard RSI: Focuses on the directional force of price movements.Standard ATR: Measures the amount of volatility, regardless of direction.ATR Strength Index: Measures the speed and direction of change in volatility.
It provides a perspective that neither the standard RSI nor ATR offers on their own – a quantified measure of how quickly the market's choppiness or range is expanding or contracting. This can be valuable for traders who incorporate volatility analysis into their decision-making process.In summary, the ATR Strength Index is a custom indicator that adapts the RSI calculation to measure the momentum of volatility, offering a unique view on market dynamics by showing how rapidly volatility is increasing or decreasing.
AP_Ultimate CCI MTF v5**AP Ultimate CCI Multi-Timeframe Indicator**
*Track Commodity Channel Index trends across multiple timeframes in one view!*
**Overview:**
Adapted from ChrisMoody's popular RSI MTF concept, this enhanced version brings powerful multi-timeframe analysis to the CCI indicator. Perfect for traders who want to confirm trends across different time horizons without switching charts.
**Key Features:**
📈 **Dual CCI Analysis**
- Primary CCI (Default: 1H) + Secondary CCI (Default: 4H)
- Fully customizable timeframes for both indicators
- Independent length settings (14-50 periods recommended)
🚦 **Visual Trading Signals**
- Automatic Buy/Sell markers on crossovers
- 🟢 **B** Signals: When CCI crosses above -100 (Oversold reversal)
- 🔴 **S** Signals: When CCI crosses below +100 (Overbought reversal)
- Clean triangular markers at chart edges for clear visibility
🎨 **Customizable Visuals**
- Adjustable overbought/oversold levels (Default: ±100)
- Background highlights for extreme zones
- Modern color schemes with transparency control
- Optional zero line display
⚙️ **Technical Specs**
- Built in Pine Script v6
- Non-repainting calculations
- Timeframe-aware alerts support
- Optimized for all asset classes
**How to Use (my use case):**
1. Apply to 15M-4H charts for intraday trading
2. Default setup: Compare 1H vs 4H CCI
3. Look for confluence between timeframes:
- Strong trend = Both CCIs moving in same direction
- Reversal signal = Crossovers with volume confirmation
4. Combine with price action or support/resistance
**Why this Indicator:**
✅ Eliminates manual timeframe switching
✅ Identifies hidden divergences between time horizons
✅ Works equally well for stocks, forex, and crypto
✅ Perfect for momentum and mean-reversion strategies
*Pro Tip: Pair with volume indicators and moving averages for enhanced confirmation!*
Dskyz (DAFE) Aurora Divergence – Quant Master Dskyz (DAFE) Aurora Divergence – Quant Master
Introducing the Dskyz (DAFE) Aurora Divergence – Quant Master , a strategy that’s your secret weapon for mastering futures markets like MNQ, NQ, MES, and ES. Born from the legendary Aurora Divergence indicator, this fully automated system transforms raw divergence signals into a quant-grade trading machine, blending precision, risk management, and cyberpunk DAFE visuals that make your charts glow like a neon skyline. Crafted with care and driven by community passion, this strategy stands out in a sea of generic scripts, offering traders a unique edge to outsmart institutional traps and navigate volatile markets.
The Aurora Divergence indicator was a cult favorite for spotting price-OBV divergences with its aqua and fuchsia orbs, but traders craved a system to act on those signals with discipline and automation. This strategy delivers, layering advanced filters (z-score, ATR, multi-timeframe, session), dynamic risk controls (kill switches, adaptive stops/TPs), and a real-time dashboard to turn insights into profits. Whether you’re a newbie dipping into futures or a pro hunting reversals, this strat’s got your back with a beginner guide, alerts, and visuals that make trading feel like a sci-fi mission. Let’s dive into every detail and see why this original DAFE creation is a must-have.
Why Traders Need This Strategy
Futures markets are a battlefield—fast-paced, volatile, and riddled with institutional games that can wipe out undisciplined traders. From the April 28, 2025 NQ 1k-point drop to sneaky ES slippage, the stakes are high. Meanwhile, platforms are flooded with unoriginal, low-effort scripts that promise the moon but deliver noise. The Aurora Divergence – Quant Master rises above, offering:
Unmatched Originality: A bespoke system built from the ground up, with custom divergence logic, DAFE visuals, and quant filters that set it apart from copycat clutter.
Automation with Precision: Executes trades on divergence signals, eliminating emotional slip-ups and ensuring consistency, even in chaotic sessions.
Quant-Grade Filters: Z-score, ATR, multi-timeframe, and session checks filter out noise, targeting high-probability reversals.
Robust Risk Management: Daily loss and rolling drawdown kill switches, plus ATR-based stops/TPs, protect your capital like a fortress.
Stunning DAFE Visuals: Aqua/fuchsia orbs, aurora bands, and a glowing dashboard make signals intuitive and charts a work of art.
Community-Driven: Evolved from trader feedback, this strat’s a labor of love, not a recycled knockoff.
Traders need this because it’s a complete, original system that blends accessibility, sophistication, and style. It’s your edge to trade smarter, not harder, in a market full of traps and imitators.
1. Divergence Detection (Core Signal Logic)
The strategy’s core is its ability to detect bullish and bearish divergences between price and On-Balance Volume (OBV), pinpointing reversals with surgical accuracy.
How It Works:
Price Slope: Uses linear regression over a lookback (default: 9 bars) to measure price momentum (priceSlope).
OBV Slope: OBV tracks volume flow (+volume if price rises, -volume if falls), with its slope calculated similarly (obvSlope).
Bullish Divergence: Price slope negative (falling), OBV slope positive (rising), and price above 50-bar SMA (trend_ma).
Bearish Divergence: Price slope positive (rising), OBV slope negative (falling), and price below 50-bar SMA.
Smoothing: Requires two consecutive divergence bars (bullDiv2, bearDiv2) to confirm signals, reducing false positives.
Strength: Divergence intensity (divStrength = |priceSlope * obvSlope| * sensitivity) is normalized (0–1, divStrengthNorm) for visuals.
Why It’s Brilliant:
- Divergences catch hidden momentum shifts, often exploited by institutions, giving you an edge on reversals.
- The 50-bar SMA filter aligns signals with the broader trend, avoiding choppy markets.
- Adjustable lookback (min: 3) and sensitivity (default: 1.0) let you tune for different instruments or timeframes.
2. Filters for Precision
Four advanced filters ensure signals are high-probability and market-aligned, cutting through the noise of volatile futures.
Z-Score Filter:
Logic: Calculates z-score ((close - SMA) / stdev) over a lookback (default: 50 bars). Blocks entries if |z-score| > threshold (default: 1.5) unless disabled (useZFilter = false).
Impact: Avoids trades during extreme price moves (e.g., blow-off tops), keeping you in statistically safe zones.
ATR Percentile Volatility Filter:
Logic: Tracks 14-bar ATR in a 100-bar window (default). Requires current ATR > 80th percentile (percATR) to trade (tradeOk).
Impact: Ensures sufficient volatility for meaningful moves, filtering out low-volume chop.
Multi-Timeframe (HTF) Trend Filter:
Logic: Uses a 50-bar SMA on a higher timeframe (default: 60min). Longs require price > HTF MA (bullTrendOK), shorts < HTF MA (bearTrendOK).
Impact: Aligns trades with the bigger trend, reducing counter-trend losses.
US Session Filter:
Logic: Restricts trading to 9:30am–4:00pm ET (default: enabled, useSession = true) using America/New_York timezone.
Impact: Focuses on high-liquidity hours, avoiding overnight spreads and erratic moves.
Evolution:
- These filters create a robust signal pipeline, ensuring trades are timed for optimal conditions.
- Customizable inputs (e.g., zThreshold, atrPercentile) let traders adapt to their style without compromising quality.
3. Risk Management
The strategy’s risk controls are a masterclass in balancing aggression and safety, protecting capital in volatile markets.
Daily Loss Kill Switch:
Logic: Tracks daily loss (dayStartEquity - strategy.equity). Halts trading if loss ≥ $300 (default) and enabled (killSwitch = true, killSwitchActive).
Impact: Caps daily downside, crucial during events like April 27, 2025 ES slippage.
Rolling Drawdown Kill Switch:
Logic: Monitors drawdown (rollingPeak - strategy.equity) over 100 bars (default). Stops trading if > $1000 (rollingKill).
Impact: Prevents prolonged losing streaks, preserving capital for better setups.
Dynamic Stop-Loss and Take-Profit:
Logic: Stops = entry ± ATR * multiplier (default: 1.0x, stopDist). TPs = entry ± ATR * 1.5x (profitDist). Longs: stop below, TP above; shorts: vice versa.
Impact: Adapts to volatility, keeping stops tight but realistic, with TPs targeting 1.5:1 reward/risk.
Max Bars in Trade:
Logic: Closes trades after 8 bars (default) if not already exited.
Impact: Frees capital from stagnant trades, maintaining efficiency.
Kill Switch Buffer Dashboard:
Logic: Shows smallest buffer ($300 - daily loss or $1000 - rolling DD). Displays 0 (red) if kill switch active, else buffer (green).
Impact: Real-time risk visibility, letting traders adjust dynamically.
Why It’s Brilliant:
- Kill switches and ATR-based exits create a safety net, rare in generic scripts.
- Customizable risk inputs (maxDailyLoss, dynamicStopMult) suit different account sizes.
- Buffer metric empowers disciplined trading, a DAFE signature.
4. Trade Entry and Exit Logic
The entry/exit rules are precise, filtered, and adaptive, ensuring trades are deliberate and profitable.
Entry Conditions:
Long Entry: bullDiv2, cooldown passed (canSignal), ATR filter passed (tradeOk), in US session (inSession), no kill switches (not killSwitchActive, not rollingKill), z-score OK (zOk), HTF trend bullish (bullTrendOK), no existing long (lastDirection != 1, position_size <= 0). Closes shorts first.
Short Entry: Same, but for bearDiv2, bearTrendOK, no long (lastDirection != -1, position_size >= 0). Closes longs first.
Adaptive Cooldown: Default 2 bars (cooldownBars). Doubles (up to 10) after a losing trade, resets after wins (dynamicCooldown).
Exit Conditions:
Stop-Loss/Take-Profit: Set per trade (ATR-based). Exits on stop/TP hits.
Other Exits: Closes if maxBarsInTrade reached, ATR filter fails, or kill switch activates.
Position Management: Ensures no conflicting positions, closing opposites before new entries.
Built To Be Reliable and Consistent:
- Multi-filtered entries minimize false signals, a stark contrast to basic scripts.
- Adaptive cooldown prevents overtrading, especially after losses.
- Clean position handling ensures smooth execution, even in fast markets.
5. DAFE Visuals
The visuals are a DAFE hallmark, blending function with clean flair to make signals intuitive and charts stunning.
Aurora Bands:
Display: Bands around price during divergences (bullish: below low, bearish: above high), sized by ATR * bandwidth (default: 0.5).
Colors: Aqua (bullish), fuchsia (bearish), with transparency tied to divStrengthNorm.
Purpose: Highlights divergence zones with a glowing, futuristic vibe.
Divergence Orbs:
Display: Large/small circles (aqua below for bullish, fuchsia above for bearish) when bullDiv2/bearDiv2 and canSignal. Labels show strength (0–1).
Purpose: Pinpoints entries with eye-catching clarity.
Gradient Background:
Display: Green (bullish), red (bearish), or gray (neutral), 90–95% transparent.
Purpose: Sets the market mood without clutter.
Strategy Plots:
- Stop/TP Lines: Red (stops), green (TPs) for active trades.
- HTF MA: Yellow line for trend context.
- Z-Score: Blue step-line (if enabled).
- Kill Switch Warning: Red background flash when active.
What Makes This Next-Level?:
- Visuals make complex signals (divergences, filters) instantly clear, even for beginners.
- DAFE’s unique aesthetic (orbs, bands) sets it apart from generic scripts, reinforcing originality.
- Functional plots (stops, TPs) enhance trade management.
6. Metrics Dashboard
The top-right dashboard (2x8 table) is your command center, delivering real-time insights.
Metrics:
Daily Loss ($): Current loss vs. day’s start, red if > $300.
Rolling DD ($): Drawdown vs. 100-bar peak, red if > $1000.
ATR Threshold: Current percATR, green if ATR exceeds, red if not.
Z-Score: Current value, green if within threshold, red if not.
Signal: “Bullish Div” (aqua), “Bearish Div” (fuchsia), or “None” (gray).
Action: “Consider Buying”/“Consider Selling” (signal color) or “Wait” (gray).
Kill Switch Buffer ($): Smallest buffer to kill switch, green if > 0, red if 0.
Why This Is Important?:
- Consolidates critical data, making decisions effortless.
- Color-coded metrics guide beginners (e.g., green action = go).
- Buffer metric adds transparency, rare in off-the-shelf scripts.
7. Beginner Guide
Beginner Guide: Middle-right table (shown once on chart load), explains aqua orbs (bullish, buy) and fuchsia orbs (bearish, sell).
Key Features:
Futures-Optimized: Tailored for MNQ, NQ, MES, ES with point-value adjustments.
Highly Customizable: Inputs for lookback, sensitivity, filters, and risk settings.
Real-Time Insights: Dashboard and visuals update every bar.
Backtest-Ready: Fixed qty and tick calc for accurate historical testing.
User-Friendly: Guide, visuals, and dashboard make it accessible yet powerful.
Original Design: DAFE’s unique logic and visuals stand out from generic scripts.
How to Use
Add to Chart: Load on a 5min MNQ/ES chart in TradingView.
Configure Inputs: Adjust instrument, filters, or risk (defaults optimized for MNQ).
Monitor Dashboard: Watch signals, actions, and risk metrics (top-right).
Backtest: Run in strategy tester to evaluate performance.
Live Trade: Connect to a broker (e.g., Tradovate) for automation. Watch for slippage (e.g., April 27, 2025 ES issues).
Replay Test: Use bar replay (e.g., April 28, 2025 NQ drop) to test volatility handling.
Disclaimer
Trading futures involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Backtest results may not reflect live trading due to slippage, fees, or market conditions. Use this strategy at your own risk, and consult a financial advisor before trading. Dskyz (DAFE) Trading Systems is not responsible for any losses incurred.
Backtesting:
Frame: 2023-09-20 - 2025-04-29
Fee Typical Range (per side, per contract)
CME Exchange $1.14 – $1.20
Clearing $0.10 – $0.30
NFA Regulatory $0.02
Firm/Broker Commis. $0.25 – $0.80 (retail prop)
TOTAL $1.60 – $2.30 per side
Round Turn: (enter+exit) = $3.20 – $4.60 per contract
Final Notes
The Dskyz (DAFE) Aurora Divergence – Quant Master isn’t just a strategy—it’s a movement. Crafted with originality and driven by community passion, it rises above the flood of generic scripts to deliver a system that’s as powerful as it is beautiful. With its quant-grade logic, DAFE visuals, and robust risk controls, it empowers traders to tackle futures with confidence and style. Join the DAFE crew, light up your charts, and let’s outsmart the markets together!
(This publishing will most likely be taken down do to some miscellaneous rule about properly displaying charting symbols, or whatever. Once I've identified what part of the publishing they want to pick on, I'll adjust and repost.)
Use it with discipline. Use it with clarity. Trade smarter.
**I will continue to release incredible strategies and indicators until I turn this into a brand or until someone offers me a contract.
Created by Dskyz, powered by DAFE Trading Systems. Trade fast, trade bold.
COT3 - Flip Strength Index - Invincible3This indicator uses the TradingView COT library to visualize institutional positioning and potential sentiment or trend shifts. It compares the long% vs short% of commercial and non-commercial traders for both Pair A and Pair B, helping traders identify trend strength, market overextension, and early reversal signals.
🔷 COT RSI
The COT RSI normalizes the net positioning difference between non-commercial and commercial traders over (N=13, 26, and 52)-week periods. It ranges from 0 to 100, highlighting when sentiment is at bullish or bearish extremes.
COT RSI (N)= ((NC - C)−min)/(max-min) x100
🟡 COT Index
The COT Index tracks where the current non-commercial net position lies within its 1-year and 3-year historical range. It reflects institutional accumulation or distribution phases.
Strength represents the magnitude of that positioning bias, visualized through normalized RSI-style metrics.
COT Index (N)= (NC net)/(max-min) x100
🔁 Flip Detection
Flip refers to the crossovers between long% and short%, indicating a change in directional bias among trader groups. When long positions exceed shorts (or vice versa), it signals a possible market flip in sentiment or trend.
For example, Pair B commercial flip is calculated as:
Long% = (Long/Open Interest)×100
Short% = (Short/Open Interest)×100
Flip = Long%−Short%
A bullish flip occurs when long% overtakes short%, and vice versa for a bearish flip. These flips often precede price trend changes or confirm sentiment breakouts.
Flip captures how far current positioning deviates from historical norms — highlighting periods of institutional overconfidence or exhaustion, often leading to significant market turns.
This combination offers a multi-layered edge for identifying when smart money is flipping direction, and whether that flip has strong conviction or is likely to fade.
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