NUPL Z-ScoreThis indicator is derived from Market Value and Realized Value, which can be defined as:
Market Value: The current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. This is like market cap in traditional markets i.e. share price multiplied by number of shares.
Realized Value: Rather than taking the current price of Bitcoin, Realized Value takes the price of each Bitcoin when it was last moved i.e. the last time it was sent from one wallet to another wallet. It then adds up all those individual prices and takes an average of them. It then multiplies that average price by the total number of coins in circulation.
By subtracting Realized Value from Market Value we calculate Unrealized Profit/Loss.
Unrealized Profit/Loss estimates the total paper profits/losses in Bitcoin held by investors. This is interesting to know but of greater value is identifying how this changes relatively over time.
To do this we can divide Unrealized Profit/Loss by Market Cap. This creates Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, sometimes referred to as NUPL, which is very useful to track investor sentiment over time for Bitcoin.
Relative Unrealised Profit/Loss is another name used for this analysis.
Cari dalam skrip untuk "TAKE"
AsturRiskPanelIndicator Summary
ATR Engine
Length & Smoothing: Choose how many bars to use (default 14) and the smoothing method (RMA/SMA/EMA/WMA).
Median ATR: Computes a rolling median of ATR over a user-defined look-back (default 14) to derive a “scalp” target.
Scalp Target
Automatically set at ½ × median ATR, snapped to the nearest tick.
Optional rounding to whole points for simplicity.
Stop Calculation
ATR Multiplier: Scales current ATR by a user input (default 1.5) to produce your stop distance in points (and ticks when appropriate).
Distortion Handling: Switches between point-only and point + tick displays based on contract specifications.
Risk & Sizing
Risk % of account per trade (default 2 %).
Calculates dollar risk per contract and optimal contract count.
Displays all metrics (scalp, stop, risk/contract, max contracts, max risk, account size) in a customizable on-chart table.
ATR-Based Stop Placement Guidelines
Trade Context ATR Multiplier Notes
Tight Range Entry 1.0 × ATR High-conviction, precise entries. Expect more shake-outs.
Standard Trend Entry 1.5 × ATR Balanced for H2/L2, MTR, DT/DB entries.
Breakouts/Microchannels 2.0 × ATR Wide stops through chop—Brooks-style breathing room.
How to Use
Select ATR Settings
Pick an ATR length (e.g. 14) and smoothing (RMA for stability).
Adjust the median length if you want a faster/slower scalp line.
Align Multiplier with Your Setup
For tight-range entries, set ATR Multiplier ≈ 1.0.
For standard trend trades, leave at 1.5.
For breakout/pullback setups, increase to 2.0 or more.
Customize Risk Parameters
Enter your account size and desired risk % per trade (e.g. 2 %).
The table auto-calculates how many contracts you can take.
Read the On-Chart Table
Scalp shows your intraday target.
Stop gives Brooks-style stop distance in points (and ticks).
Risk/Contract is the dollar risk per contract.
Max Contracts tells you maximum position size.
Max Risk confirms total dollar exposure.
Visual Confirmation
Place your entry, then eyeball the scalp and stop levels against chart structure (e.g. swing highs/lows).
Adjust the ATR multiplier if market context shifts (e.g. volatility spikes).
By blending this sizing panel with contextual ATR multipliers, you’ll consistently give your trades the right amount of “breathing room” while keeping risk in check.
MTF Candle Direction Forecast + Breakdown🧭 MTF Candle Direction Forecast + Breakdown 🔥📈🔼
This script is a multi-timeframe (MTF) price action dashboard that helps traders assess real-time directional bias across five customizable timeframes — with a focus on candle behavior, trend alignment, and confidence strength.
📌 What It Does
For each timeframe, this dashboard summarizes:
Current direction → Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral
Confidence score (0–100) → How strongly price is likely to continue in that direction
Candle strength → 🔥 icon appears if the current candle has a large body relative to its range
Trend alignment:
📈 = EMA9 is above EMA20
🔼 = Price is above VWAP
Color-coded background to visually reinforce directional state
Each row gives you a visual “at-a-glance” readout of what price is doing right now — not in the past.
💡 Why It’s Useful
✅ Direction forecasting based on price action
Instead of lagging indicators, this script prioritizes:
Candle body-to-range ratio (momentum)
Real-time VWAP/EMA structure
Immediate price positioning
✅ Confidence is quantified
The score (0–100) helps you judge how reliable each directional signal is:
90+ → Strong conviction
50–70 → Mixed but potentially valid
<40 → Weak move or early signal
✅ Timeframe confluence at a glance
See whether multiple timeframes are aligning directionally — helpful for scalping, day trading, or waiting for multi-timeframe breakout setups.
✅ Visual & intuitive
Icons, colors, and layout make it easy to scan your dashboard instead of deciphering charts or code.
🛠️ Adjustable Settings
Setting Description
Timeframe 1–5 Choose any timeframes to monitor (e.g., 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h)
Candle Display Mode Show trend color via emoji (🟢/🔴) or background shading
Strong Candle Threshold Adjust the body-to-range % needed to trigger 🔥 strength
Bullish/Bearish Background Customize label color coding
Neutral Background (opacity) Set transparency or styling for flat/consolidating zones
Table Location Place the dashboard anywhere on the chart
🎯 Use Cases
Scalpers: Confirm trend across 1m/5m/15m before entering
Day Traders: Use confidence score to avoid low-momentum setups
Swing Traders: Monitor higher timeframes for trend shifts while tracking intraday noise
VWAP/EMA traders: Quickly see when price is reclaiming or losing critical trend levels
🧠 What Makes It Unique?
Unlike generic trend meters or mashups of standard indicators, this script:
Uses live candle dynamics (not just closes or lagging values)
Computes directional bias and confidence together
Visualizes strength and structure in a compact, readable interface
Let’s you filter by price action, not just indicator alignment
💥 Why Traders Love Will Love It
✅ Instant clarity on which timeframes agree
✅ No more guessing candle strength or trend health
✅ Confidence score keeps you out of weak trades
✅ Works with any strategy — trend following, VWAP reclaim, EMA scalps, even breakouts
✅ Keeps your chart clean — all the context, none of the clutter
⚠️ Transparency🧬 Under the Hood
Powered by live candle body analysis, trend structure (EMA9 vs EMA20), and VWAP placement.
All scores are generated in real-time — No repainting or lookahead bias: all values are computed with lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on
Confidence scores reflect the current candle only — they do not predict future moves but measure momentum and alignment in real-time
Labels update per bar and respond to subtle shifts in candle structure and trend indicators
✅ MTF Trend Snapshot (Live Output Example Shown in Chart Above)
This dashboard gives you a fast, visual summary of market trend and momentum across 5 timeframes. Here's what it's telling you right now:
🕔 5 Minute (5m)
📉 EMA Trend: Down
🔼 Price: Above VWAP
Direction: Bearish (42)
🟥 Weak bearish bias. Short-term pullback against a stronger trend. Use caution — lower confidence and mixed structure.
⏱️ 15 Minute (15m)
📈 EMA Trend: Up
🔼 Price: Above VWAP
Direction: Bullish (73)
🟩 Clean bullish structure with growing momentum. Solid for intraday confirmation.
🕧 30 Minute (30m)
📈 EMA Trend: Up
🔼 Price: Above VWAP
Direction: Bullish (77)
🟩 Stronger trend forming. Above VWAP and EMAs — building conviction.
🕐 1 Hour (1h)
📈 EMA Trend: Up
🔼 Price: Above VWAP
Direction: Bullish (70)
🟩 Confident, clean trend. Good alignment across indicators. Ideal timeframe for swing entries.
🕓 4 Hour (4h)
🔥 Strong Candle
📈 EMA Trend: Up
🔼 Price: Above VWAP
Direction: Bullish (100)
🟩 Full trend alignment with max momentum. Strong body candle + structure — high confidence continuation.
🧠 Quick Takeaway
🔻 5m is pulling back short term
✅ 15m through 4h are fully aligned Bullish
🔥 4h has max confidence — big-picture trend is intact
📈 Ideal setup for momentum traders looking to ride trend with multi-timeframe confirmation
Try pinning this dashboard to your chart during live trading to read price like a story across timeframes, and filter out weak setups with low-confidence noise.
SOXL Trend Surge v3.0.2 – Profit-Only RunnerSOXL Trend Surge v3.0.2 – Profit-Only Runner
This is a trend-following strategy built for leveraged ETFs like SOXL, designed to ride high-momentum waves with minimal interference. Unlike most short-term scalping scripts, this model allows trades to develop over multiple days to even several months, capitalizing on the full power of extended directional moves — all without using a stop-loss.
🔍 How It Works
Entry Logic:
Price is above the 200 EMA (long-term trend confirmation)
Supertrend is bullish (momentum confirmation)
ATR is rising (volatility expansion)
Volume is above its 20-bar average (liquidity filter)
Price is outside a small buffer zone from the 200 EMA (to avoid whipsaws)
Trades are restricted to market hours only (9 AM to 2 PM EST)
Cooldown of 15 bars after each exit to prevent overtrading
Exit Strategy:
Takes partial profit at +2× ATR if held for at least 2 bars
Rides the remaining position with a trailing stop at 1.5× ATR
No hard stop-loss — giving space for volatile pullbacks
⚙️ Strategy Settings
Initial Capital: $500
Risk per Trade: 100% of equity (fully allocated per entry)
Commission: 0.1%
Slippage: 1 tick
Recalculate after order is filled
Fill orders on bar close
Timeframe Optimized For: 45-minute chart
These parameters simulate an aggressive, high-volatility trading model meant for forward-testing compounding potential under realistic trading costs.
✅ What Makes This Unique
No stop-loss = fewer premature exits
Partial profit-taking helps lock in early wins
Trailing logic gives room to ride large multi-week moves
Uses strict filters (volume, ATR, EMA bias) to enter only during high-probability windows
Ideal for leveraged ETF swing or position traders looking to hold longer than the typical intraday or 2–3 day strategies
⚠️ Important Note
This is a high-risk, high-reward strategy meant for educational and testing purposes. Without a stop-loss, trades can experience deep drawdowns that may take weeks or even months to recover. Always test thoroughly and adjust position sizing to suit your risk tolerance. Past results do not guarantee future returns. Backtest range: May 8, 2020 – May 23, 2025
Decimal EMAImagine you want a moving average line, but you want its "length" or "period" to be super precise, like 2.7 days instead of just 2 days or 3 days.
This script lets you do that. Here's the simple idea:
You Pick a Decimal Number: In the settings, you can type in a period with a decimal, say, 2.7.
The Script Does a Smart Blend:
It first calculates two regular EMAs: one for the whole number below your choice (EMA for 2 days) and one for the whole number above (EMA for 3 days).
Then, it cleverly mixes these two EMA lines. Since 2.7 is closer to 3 than to 2, it takes more from the "3-day EMA" and a bit less from the "2-day EMA." (Specifically, it takes 70% from the 3-day EMA and 30% from the 2-day EMA).
You Get a Decimal EMA Line: The result is a new EMA line that acts as if its period was exactly 2.7. This line is drawn on your chart.
Why do this?
It allows for very fine-tuned adjustments to how responsive your moving average is, giving a smoother change if you're testing slightly different period lengths.
In Short:
This script calculates an EMA for a period like "2.7" by intelligently blending the results of an EMA for "2" and an EMA for "3".
Order Blocks📈 Order Blocks Only (With Mitigation Alerts)
This indicator identifies bullish and bearish order blocks on your chart and alerts you when they are formed or mitigated . Order blocks are key institutional price levels where strong buying or selling has previously occurred, often leading to significant future price reactions.
🔍 How It Works:
-Bullish Order Block: Formed when price closes above the high of a recent bearish candle. This suggests buyers have taken control.
-Bearish Order Block: Formed when price closes below the low of a recent bullish candle. This signals seller dominance.
-Once an order block is formed, a box is drawn on the chart to highlight the zone.
-These boxes last for a user-defined number of bars (default is 20) and can be automatically removed when price mitigates (retests and closes beyond) the zone.
🛠 User Settings:
-Show Bullish Order Blocks – Toggle green zones on/off.
-Show Bearish Order Blocks – Toggle red zones on/off.
-Order Block Duration – How many bars the boxes should remain on the chart.
-Delete Mitigated Boxes – If enabled, mitigated zones are automatically removed.
-Custom Colors – Personalize the fill and border colors of bullish and bearish blocks.
🔔 Alerts:
This tool supports four built-in alert types:
-Bullish Order Block Formed
-Bearish Order Block Formed
-Bullish Order Block Mitigated
-Bearish Order Block Mitigated
Set these alerts to stay on top of key price reactions.
✅ How to Use It:
1. Apply the indicator to any chart and timeframe.
2. Watch for new order blocks to form after strong price breaks.
3. Use these zones as potential entry points, stop placement areas, or take profit zones.
4. Enable alerts to catch key institutional levels as they form or are retested.
Zero Lag MTF Moving Average by CoffeeshopCryptoBased on Moving Average Types supplied by @TradingView www.tradingview.com
Ideas and code enhanced to show higher timeframe by @CoffeeShopCrypto
It’s time to take the guesswork out of moving averages and multiple timeframes when day trading. Moving averages are a cornerstone of many trading strategies, often viewed as dynamic support and resistance levels. Traders rely on these levels to anticipate price reactions, whether it’s a bounce in a trending market or a reversal in a ranging one. Additionally, the direction and alignment of multi timeframe moving averages—whether they’re moving in the same direction or diverging—provide critical clues about market momentum and potential reversals. However, the traditional higher timeframe moving average indicators force traders to wait for higher timeframe candles to close, creating lag and missed opportunities.
The Old Way
For example: If you are on a 5 minute chart and you want to observe the location and direction of a 30 minute chart Moving Average, you'll need to wait for a total of 6 candles to close, and again every 6 candles after that. This only creates more lag.
The New Way
Now there is no waiting for high timeframe session candles to close. No matter what timeframe Moving Average you want to know about, this indicator will show you its location on your current chart at any time in real time.
For those who prefer Bollinger Bands, this indicator adds a whole new dimension to your strategy. Traders often wait for price action to break outside the lower time frame Bollinger bands before considering a trade, while still seeking key support or resistance levels beyond them. But if you don't know the position of your higher time frame Bollinger, you could be trading into a trap. With Zero Lag Multi Timeframe Moving Average, you can view both your current and higher timeframe Bollinger Bands simultaneously with zero waiting. This lets you instantly see when price action is traveling between the bands of either timeframe or breaking through both—indicating a strong trend in that direction. Additionally, when both sets of Bollinger Bands overlap at the same price levels, it highlights areas of strong consolidation and ranging conditions, giving you a clear picture of market dynamics. This is a key element in price action that tells you there is currently no direction to the market and both the current and higher time frames are flat.
Enter Zero Lag Multi Timeframe Moving Average—the ultimate tool for real-time higher timeframe moving averages and Bollinger Bands. This innovative indicator eliminates the delay, delivering instant, precise values for higher timeframe averages and bands, even on open candles. Seamlessly combining current and higher timeframe data, it allows traders to identify key moments where moving averages or Bollinger Bands align or diverge, signaling market conditions. Whether you’re gauging the strength of a trend, pinpointing potential reversals, or identifying consolidation zones, Zero Lag Multi Timeframe Moving Average gives you the clarity needed to make better trading decisions according to market conditions.
Why is this "Mashup" of moving averages different and important?
Honestly its really about the calculation thats imported through the "import library" function.
Heres what it does:
The ZLMTF-MA is designed to help traders easily see where higher timeframe moving averages and Bollinger Bands are—without needing to switch chart timeframes or wait for those larger candles to close. It works by adjusting common moving average types like SMA, EMA, and VWMA to show what they would look like if they were based on a higher timeframe, right on your current chart. This helps users stay focused on their main timeframe while still having a clear view of the bigger picture, making it easier to spot trend direction, key support and resistance levels, and overall market structure. The goal is to keep things simple, fast, and more visually informative for everyday traders.
Bollinger Bands
When working with Bollinger Bands, a common strategy is to take the trades once price action has escaped through the top or bottom of your current Bollinger Band.
A false breakout occurs when both Bollinger Bands are not moving in the same direction as eachother or when they are overlapping.
Moving Averages as Support and Resistance:
Traders who use Moving Averages as support or resistance, looking for rejections or failures of these areas can now see multiple timeframe price action instantly and simultaneously.
Trading Setup Examples:
Price Action Scenario 1:
Higher Timeframe Ranging-
When price action breaks through a current moving average headed toward a higher timeframe moving average, trades are taken with caution if the moving averages are converging.
Price Action Scenario 2:
Strong Trending Market -
If the moving averages are in the same direction, and your price action is now leading the low timeframe moving average, you have re-entered a strong trend.
Price Action Scenario 3:
High Timeframe Rejections -
If you have a rejection of a higher timeframe moving average, and your both averages are still diverging, this is the end of a pullback as you re-enter a strong trend in the original direction
Price Action Scenario 4:
Trend Reversals -
If you close beyond both the low and high timeframe moving averages, you can consider that price action is strong enough to change direction here and you should prepare for trade setups in the opposite direction of the previous.
HTF MA Label Information:
Even if your high timeframe moving average is turned off, you can still see this label.
It gives you a quick reminder of what high timeframe settings you have used to see MA values.
Camarilla Pivot Plays█ OVERVIEW
This indicator implements the Camarilla Pivot Points levels and a system for suggesting particular plays. It only calculates and shows the 3rd, 4th, and 6th levels, as these are the only ones used by the system. In total, there are 12 possible plays, grouped into two groups of six. The algorithm constantly evaluates conditions for entering and exiting the plays and indicates them in real time, also triggering user-configurable alerts.
█ CREDITS
The Camarilla pivot plays are defined in a strategy developed by Thor Young, and the whole system is explained in his book "A Complete Day Trading System" . The indicator is published with his permission, and he is a user of it. The book is not necessary in order to understand and use the indicator; this description contains sufficient information to use it effectively.
█ FEATURES
Automatically draws plays, suggesting an entry, stop-loss, and maximum target
User can set alerts on chosen ticker to call these plays, even when not currently viewing them
Highly configurable via many options
Works for US/European stocks and US futures (at least)
Works correctly on both RTH and ETH charts
Automatically switches between RTH and ETH data
Optionally also shows the "other" set of pivots (RTH vs ETH data)
Configurable behaviour in the pre-market, not active in the post-market
Configurable sensitivity of the play detection algorithm
Can also show weekly and monthly Camarilla pivots
Well-documented options tooltips
Sensible defaults which are suitable for immediate use
Well-documented and high-quality open-source code for those who are interested
█ HOW TO USE
The defaults work well; at a minimum, just add the indicator and watch the plays being called. To avoid having to watch securities, by selecting the three dots next to the indicator name, you can set an alert on the indicator and choose to be alerted on play entry or exit events—or both. The following diagram shows several plays activated in the past (with the "Show past plays" option selected).
By default, the indicator draws plays 5 days back; this can be changed up to 20 days. The labels can be shifted left/right using the "label offset" option to avoid overlapping with other labels in this indicator or those of another indicator.
An information box at the top-right of the chart shows:
The data currently in use for the main pivots. This can switch in the pre-market if the H/L range exceeds the previous day's H/L, and if it does, you will see that switch at the time that it happens
Whether the current day's pivots are in a higher or lower range compared to the previous day's. This is based on the RTH close, so large moves in the post-market won't be reflected (there is an advanced option to change this)
The width of the value relationship in the current day compared to the previous day
The currently active play. If multiple plays are active in parallel, only the last activated one is shown
The resistance pivots are all drawn in the same colour (red by default), as are the support pivots (green by default). You can change the resistance and support colours, but it is not possible to have different colours for different levels of the same kind. Plays will always use the correct colour, drawing over the pivots. For example, R4 is red by default, but if a play treats R4 as a support, then the play will draw a green line (by default) over the red R4 line, thereby hiding it while the play is active.
There are a few advanced parameters; leave these as default unless you really know what they do. Please note the script is complicated—it does a lot. You might need to wait a few seconds while it (re)calculates on new tickers or when changing options. Give it time when first loading or changing options!
█ CONCEPTS
The indicator is focused around daily Camarilla pivots and implements 12 possible plays: 6 when in a higher range, 6 when in a lower range. The plays are labelled by two letters—the first indicates the range, the second indicates the play—as shown in this diagram:
The pivots can be calculated using only RTH (Regular Trading Hours) data, or ETH (Extended Trading Hours) data, which includes the pre-market and post-market. The indicator implements logic to automatically choose the correct data, based on the rules defined by the strategy. This is user-overridable. With the default options, ETH will be used when the H/L range in the previous day's post-market or current day's pre-market exceeds that of the previous day's regular market. In auto mode, the chosen pivots are considered the main pivots for that day and are the ones used for play evaluation. The "other" pivots can also be shown—"other" here meaning using ETH data when the main pivots use RTH data, and vice versa.
When displaying plays in the pre-market, since the RTH open is not yet known (and that value is needed to evaluate play pre-conditions), the pre-market open is used as a proxy for the RTH open. After the regular market opens, the correct RTH open is used to evaluate play conditions.
█ NOTE FOR FUTURES
Futures always use full ETH data in auto mode. Users may, however, wish to use the option "Always use RTH close," which uses the 3 p.m. Central Time (CME/Chicago) as a basis for the close in the pivot calculations (instead of the 4 p.m. actual close).
Futures don't officially have a pre-market or post-market like equities. Let's take ES on CME as an example (CME is in Chicago, so all times are Central Time, i.e., 1 hour behind Eastern Time). It trades from 17:00 Sunday to 16:00 Friday, with a daily pause between 16:00 and 17:00. However, most of the trading activity is done between 08:30 and 15:00 (Central), which you can tell from the volume spikes at those times, and this coincides with NYSE/NASDAQ regular hours (09:30–16:00 Eastern). So we define a pseudo-pre-market from 17:00 the previous day to 08:30 on the current day, then a pseudo-regular market from 08:30 to 15:00, then a pseudo-post-market from 15:00 to 16:00.
The indicator then works exactly the same as with equities—all the options behave the same, just with different session times defined for the pre-, regular, and post-market, with "RTH" meaning just the regular market and "ETH" meaning all three. The only difference from equities is that the auto calculation mode always uses ETH instead of switching based on ETH range compared to RTH range. This is so users who just leave all the defaults are not confused by auto-switching of the calculation mode; normally you'll want the pivots based on all the (ETH) data. However, both "Force RTH" and "Use RTH close with ETH data" work the same as with equities—so if, in the calculations, you really want to only use RTH data, or use all ETH H/L data but use the RTH close (at 15:00), you can.
█ LIMITATIONS
The pivots are very close to those shown in DAS Trader Pro. They are not to-the-cent exact, but within a few cents. The reasons are:
TradingView uses real-time data from CBOE One, so doesn't have access to full exchange data (unless you pay for it in TradingView), and
the close/high/low are taken from the intraday timeframe you are currently viewing, not daily data—which are very close, but often not exactly the same. For example, the high on the daily timeframe may differ slightly from the daily high you'll see on an intraday timeframe.
I have occasionally seen larger than a few cents differences in the pivots between these and DAS Trader Pro—this is always due to differences in data, for example a big spike in the data in TradingView but not in DAS Trader Pro, or vice versa. The more traded the stock is, the less the difference tends to be. Highly traded stocks are usually within a few cents. Less traded stocks may be more (for example, 30¢ difference in R4 is the highest I've seen). If it bothers you, official NYSE/NASDAQ data in TradingView is quite inexpensive (but even that doesn't make the 8am candle identical).
The 6th Camarilla level does not have a standard definition and may not match the level shown on other platforms. It does match the definition used by DAS Trader Pro.
The indicator is an intraday indicator (despite also being able to show weekly and monthly pivots on an intraday chart). It deactivates on a daily timeframe and higher. It is untested on sub-minute timeframes; you may encounter runtime errors on these due to various historical data referencing issues. Also, the play detection algorithm would likely be unpredictable on sub-minute timeframes. Therefore, sub-minute timeframes are formally unsupported.
The indicator was developed and tested for US/European stocks and US futures. It may or may not work as intended for stocks and futures in different locations. It does not work for other security types (e.g., crypto), where I have no evidence that the strategy has any relevance.
ETI IndicatorThe Ensemble Technical Indicator (ETI) is a script that combines multiple established indicators into one single powerful indicator. Specifically, it takes a number of technical indicators and then converts them into +1 to represent a bullish trend, or a -1 to represent a bearish trend. It then adds these values together and takes the running sum over the past 20 days.
The ETI is composed of the following indicators and converted to +1 or -1 using the following criteria:
Simple Moving Average (10 days) : When the price is above the 10-day simple moving averaging, +1, when below -1
Weighted Moving Average (10 days) : Similar to the SMA 10, when the the price is above the 10-day weighted moving average, +1, when below -1
Stochastic K% : If the current Stochastic K% is greater than the previous value, then +1, else -1.
Stochastic D% : Similar to the Stochastic K%, when the current Stochastic D% is greater than the previous value, +1, else -1.
MACD Difference : First subtract the MACD signal (i.e. the moving average) from the MACD value and if the current value is higher than the previous value, then +1, else -1.
William's R% : If the current William's R% is greater than the previous one, then +1, else -1.
William's Accumulation/Distribution : If the current William's AD value is greater than the previous value, then +1, else -1.
Commodity Channel Index : If the Commodity Channel Index is greater than 200 (overbought), then -1, if it is less than -200 (oversold) then +1. When it is between those values, if the current value is greater than the previous value then +1, else -1.
Relative Strength Index : If the Relative Strength Index is over 70 (overbought) then -1 and if under 30 (oversold) then +1. If the Relative Strength Indicator is between those values then if the current value is higher than the previous value +1, else -1.
Momentum (9 days) : If the momentum value is greater than 0, then +1, else -1.
Again, once these values have been calculated and converted, they are added up to produce a single value. This single value is then summed across the previous 20 candles to produce a running sum.
By coalescing multiple technical indicators into a single value across time, traders can better understand how multiple inter-related indicators are behaving at once; high scores indicate that numerous indicators are showing bullish signals indicating a potential or ongoing uptrend (and vice-versa with low scores).
Additional Features
Numerous smoothing transformations have also been added (e.g. gaussian smoothing) to remove some of the noise might exist.
Suggested Use
It is recommended that stocks are shorted when the cross below 0, and are bought when the ETI crosses above -40. Arrows can be shown on the indicator to show these points. However feel free to use levels that work best for you.
Traditionally, I have treated values above +50 as overbought and below -40 as undersold (with -80 indicating extremely oversold); however these levels could also indicate either upwards and downwards momentum so taking a position based on where the ETI is (rather than crossing levels) should be done with caution.
DDDDD: ATR & ADR Table + Suggested Time-based Exit📈 DDDDD: ATR & ADR Table + Suggested Time-based Exit
This indicator provides a simple yet powerful table displaying key volatility metrics for any timeframe you apply it to. It is designed for traders who want to assess the volatility of an asset, estimate the average time required for a potential move, and define a time-based exit strategy.
🔍 Features:
Displays ATR (Average True Range) for the selected length
Shows Average Range (High-Low) and Maximum Range over a configurable number of bars
Calculates Avg Bars/Move → average number of bars needed to achieve the maximum range
Calculates Recommended Exit Bars → suggested maximum holding period (in bars) before considering an exit if price hasn’t moved as expected
All values dynamically adjust based on the chart’s current timeframe
Outputs values directly in a table overlay on your main chart for quick reference
📝 How to interpret the table:
Field Meaning
ATR (14) Average True Range over the last 14 bars (volatility indicator)
Avg Range (20) Average High-Low range over the last 20 bars
Max Range Maximum High-Low range observed in the last 20 bars
Avg Bars/Move Average number of bars it takes to achieve a Max Range move
Rec. Exit Bars Suggested max holding period (bars) → consider exit if move hasn’t occurred
✅ How to use:
Apply this indicator to any chart (works on minutes, hourly, daily, weekly…)
It will automatically calculate based on the chart’s current timeframe
Use ATR & Avg Range to gauge volatility
Use Avg Bars/Move to estimate how long the market usually takes to achieve a big move
Use Rec. Exit Bars as a soft stop — if price hasn’t moved by this time, consider exiting due to declining probability of a breakout
⚠️ Notes:
All values are relative to your current chart timeframe. For example:
→ On a daily chart, ATR represents daily volatility
→ On a 1H chart, ATR represents hourly volatility
“Bars” refers to the bars of the current timeframe. Always interpret time accordingly.
Perfect for traders who want to:
Time their trades based on average volatility
Avoid overholding losing positions
Set time-based exit rules to complement price-based stoplosses
6 Dynamic EMAs by Koenigsegg🚀 6 Dynamic EMAs by Koenigsegg
Take control of your chart with ultimate flexibility. This tool gives you 6 customizable EMAs across any timeframe, helping you read the market like a pro — whether you're scalping seconds or swinging days. Built for precision, designed for dominance.
The combinations? Endless. Mix and match any EMA lengths and timeframes for tailored confluence — exactly how elite traders operate.
🔑 Key Features
✅ 6 Fully Customizable EMAs
⏳ Multi-Timeframe Support (from seconds to months)
🎨 Custom Colors & Thickness for each EMA
🚨 Built-in Cross Alerts for instant trade signals
🧠 Clean, efficient logic using request.security()
🔁 Dynamically toggle EMAs on/off
⚙️ Lightweight for smooth chart performance
🧩 Endless combo potential — confluence on your terms
📈 What Is an EMA?
The EMA is a type of moving average that adjusts more quickly to recent price changes than a Simple Moving Average (SMA). It does this by giving exponentially more weight to the most recent candles.
⚙️ How Does It Function?
Smoothing Price Data:
It takes the average of closing prices over a chosen period (like 20 or 50 candles), but gives more influence to the latest prices.
Reacts Quickly to Price Shifts:
Since recent data is weighted more heavily, the EMA adjusts faster to sudden price changes — helping you spot trend reversals or momentum shifts earlier.
Dynamic Support & Resistance:
Traders often use EMAs as moving support/resistance levels. Price often "respects" EMAs in trending markets — bouncing off them during pullbacks.
Trend Confirmation:
- If price is above the EMA, the market is likely in an uptrend.
- If price is below the EMA, the market is likely in a downtrend.
- Multiple EMAs (like 12/21 or 50/200) crossing each other are used for entry/exit signals.
💡 Example:
If you use a 21 EMA on a chart, it shows you the average price of the last 21 candles, but the most recent ones weigh heavier. This makes the EMA more responsive than an SMA, and better for short-term or active trading.
📊 Why EMAs Matter — and How Multi-Timeframe EMAs Give You the Edge
Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are essential tools for identifying trend direction, momentum shifts, and dynamic support/resistance. Because they weight recent price data more heavily, EMAs adapt quickly to changing market conditions, giving traders early insight into reversals or continuations.
Where this script shines is in its multi-timeframe (MTF) capability. For example, plotting a daily EMA on a 4H chart gives you high-level directional guidance while still allowing precision entries. This enables confluence between LTF (low timeframe) signals and HTF (high timeframe) momentum — a crucial edge used by institutional-level traders.
You can configure the tool to run classic combos like the 12/21 crossover on your current chart, while layering in a 50 or 200 EMA from a higher timeframe for macro confirmation. The 6th EMA, colored light blue by default, is perfect for adding one final level of structure insight — often used as a long-term anchor or trend bias marker.
Whether you're riding the wave or catching the reversal, these EMAs serve as your adaptable compass in every environment.
🎯 Purpose
This indicator was built to give traders a clear, responsive, and multi-timeframe edge using dynamic Exponential Moving Averages. Whether you're trend-following, identifying momentum shifts, or building a confluence system — these 6 EMAs are here to align with your strategy and style.
💡 Pro Tip
Instead of cluttering your chart with multiple EMA indicators, this script consolidates all into one sleek tool. You can toggle off bands you don't currently need, like running only the 12/21 EMAs on your active chart timeframe, while adding the 12/21 EMAs from a higher timeframe to guide trade decisions.
With this setup, you're not just reacting — you're orchestrating your trades with intention.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Dskyz (DAFE) Adaptive Regime - Quant Machine ProDskyz (DAFE) Adaptive Regime - Quant Machine Pro:
Buckle up for the Dskyz (DAFE) Adaptive Regime - Quant Machine Pro, is a strategy that’s your ultimate edge for conquering futures markets like ES, MES, NQ, and MNQ. This isn’t just another script—it’s a quant-grade powerhouse, crafted with precision to adapt to market regimes, deliver multi-factor signals, and protect your capital with futures-tuned risk management. With its shimmering DAFE visuals, dual dashboards, and glowing watermark, it turns your charts into a cyberpunk command center, making trading as thrilling as it is profitable.
Unlike generic scripts clogging up the space, the Adaptive Regime is a DAFE original, built from the ground up to tackle the chaos of futures trading. It identifies market regimes (Trending, Range, Volatile, Quiet) using ADX, Bollinger Bands, and HTF indicators, then fires trades based on a weighted scoring system that blends candlestick patterns, RSI, MACD, and more. Add in dynamic stops, trailing exits, and a 5% drawdown circuit breaker, and you’ve got a system that’s as safe as it is aggressive. Whether you’re a newbie or a prop desk pro, this strat’s your ticket to outsmarting the markets. Let’s break down every detail and see why it’s a must-have.
Why Traders Need This Strategy
Futures markets are a gauntlet—fast moves, volatility spikes (like the April 28, 2025 NQ 1k-point drop), and institutional traps that punish the unprepared. Meanwhile, platforms are flooded with low-effort scripts that recycle old ideas with zero innovation. The Adaptive Regime stands tall, offering:
Adaptive Intelligence: Detects market regimes (Trending, Range, Volatile, Quiet) to optimize signals, unlike one-size-fits-all scripts.
Multi-Factor Precision: Combines candlestick patterns, MA trends, RSI, MACD, volume, and HTF confirmation for high-probability trades.
Futures-Optimized Risk: Calculates position sizes based on $ risk (default: $300), with ATR or fixed stops/TPs tailored for ES/MES.
Bulletproof Safety: 5% daily drawdown circuit breaker and trailing stops keep your account intact, even in chaos.
DAFE Visual Mastery: Pulsing Bollinger Band fills, dynamic SL/TP lines, and dual dashboards (metrics + position) make signals crystal-clear and charts a work of art.
Original Craftsmanship: A DAFE creation, built with community passion, not a rehashed clone of generic code.
Traders need this because it’s a complete, adaptive system that blends quant smarts, user-friendly design, and DAFE flair. It’s your edge to trade with confidence, cut through market noise, and leave the copycats in the dust.
Strategy Components
1. Market Regime Detection
The strategy’s brain is its ability to classify market conditions into five regimes, ensuring signals match the environment.
How It Works:
Trending (Regime 1): ADX > 20, fast/slow EMA spread > 0.3x ATR, HTF RSI > 50 or MACD bullish (htf_trend_bull/bear).
Range (Regime 2): ADX < 25, price range < 3% of close, no HTF trend.
Volatile (Regime 3): BB width > 1.5x avg, ATR > 1.2x avg, HTF RSI overbought/oversold.
Quiet (Regime 4): BB width < 0.8x avg, ATR < 0.9x avg.
Other (Regime 5): Default for unclear conditions.
Indicators: ADX (14), BB width (20), ATR (14, 50-bar SMA), HTF RSI (14, daily default), HTF MACD (12,26,9).
Why It’s Brilliant:
Regime detection adapts signals to market context, boosting win rates in trending or volatile conditions.
HTF RSI/MACD add a big-picture filter, rare in basic scripts.
Visualized via gradient background (green for Trending, orange for Range, red for Volatile, gray for Quiet, navy for Other).
2. Multi-Factor Signal Scoring
Entries are driven by a weighted scoring system that combines candlestick patterns, trend, momentum, and volume for robust signals.
Candlestick Patterns:
Bullish: Engulfing (0.5), hammer (0.4 in Range, 0.2 else), morning star (0.2), piercing (0.2), double bottom (0.3 in Volatile, 0.15 else). Must be near support (low ≤ 1.01x 20-bar low) with volume spike (>1.5x 20-bar avg).
Bearish: Engulfing (0.5), shooting star (0.4 in Range, 0.2 else), evening star (0.2), dark cloud (0.2), double top (0.3 in Volatile, 0.15 else). Must be near resistance (high ≥ 0.99x 20-bar high) with volume spike.
Logic: Patterns are weighted higher in specific regimes (e.g., hammer in Range, double bottom in Volatile).
Additional Factors:
Trend: Fast EMA (20) > slow EMA (50) + 0.5x ATR (trend_bull, +0.2); opposite for trend_bear.
RSI: RSI (14) < 30 (rsi_bull, +0.15); > 70 (rsi_bear, +0.15).
MACD: MACD line > signal (12,26,9, macd_bull, +0.15); opposite for macd_bear.
Volume: ATR > 1.2x 50-bar avg (vol_expansion, +0.1).
HTF Confirmation: HTF RSI < 70 and MACD bullish (htf_bull_confirm, +0.2); RSI > 30 and MACD bearish (htf_bear_confirm, +0.2).
Scoring:
bull_score = sum of bullish factors; bear_score = sum of bearish. Entry requires score ≥ 1.0.
Example: Bullish engulfing (0.5) + trend_bull (0.2) + rsi_bull (0.15) + htf_bull_confirm (0.2) = 1.05, triggers long.
Why It’s Brilliant:
Multi-factor scoring ensures signals are confirmed by multiple market dynamics, reducing false positives.
Regime-specific weights make patterns more relevant (e.g., hammers shine in Range markets).
HTF confirmation aligns with the big picture, a quant edge over simplistic scripts.
3. Futures-Tuned Risk Management
The risk system is built for futures, calculating position sizes based on $ risk and offering flexible stops/TPs.
Position Sizing:
Logic: Risk per trade (default: $300) ÷ (stop distance in points * point value) = contracts, capped at max_contracts (default: 5). Point value = tick value (e.g., $12.5 for ES) * ticks per point (4) * contract multiplier (1 for ES, 0.1 for MES).
Example: $300 risk, 8-point stop, ES ($50/point) → 0.75 contracts, rounded to 1.
Impact: Precise sizing prevents over-leverage, critical for micro contracts like MES.
Stops and Take-Profits:
Fixed: Default stop = 8 points, TP = 16 points (2:1 reward/risk).
ATR-Based: Stop = 1.5x ATR (default), TP = 3x ATR, enabled via use_atr_for_stops.
Logic: Stops set at swing low/high ± stop distance; TPs at 2x stop distance from entry.
Impact: ATR stops adapt to volatility, while fixed stops suit stable markets.
Trailing Stops:
Logic: Activates at 50% of TP distance. Trails at close ± 1.5x ATR (atr_multiplier). Longs: max(trail_stop_long, close - ATR * 1.5); shorts: min(trail_stop_short, close + ATR * 1.5).
Impact: Locks in profits during trends, a game-changer in volatile sessions.
Circuit Breaker:
Logic: Pauses trading if daily drawdown > 5% (daily_drawdown = (max_equity - equity) / max_equity).
Impact: Protects capital during black swan events (e.g., April 27, 2025 ES slippage).
Why It’s Brilliant:
Futures-specific inputs (tick value, multiplier) make it plug-and-play for ES/MES.
Trailing stops and circuit breaker add pro-level safety, rare in off-the-shelf scripts.
Flexible stops (ATR or fixed) suit different trading styles.
4. Trade Entry and Exit Logic
Entries and exits are precise, driven by bull_score/bear_score and protected by drawdown checks.
Entry Conditions:
Long: bull_score ≥ 1.0, no position (position_size <= 0), drawdown < 5% (not pause_trading). Calculates contracts, sets stop at swing low - stop points, TP at 2x stop distance.
Short: bear_score ≥ 1.0, position_size >= 0, drawdown < 5%. Stop at swing high + stop points, TP at 2x stop distance.
Logic: Tracks entry_regime for PNL arrays. Closes opposite positions before entering.
Exit Conditions:
Stop-Loss/Take-Profit: Hits stop or TP (strategy.exit).
Trailing Stop: Activates at 50% TP, trails by ATR * 1.5.
Emergency Exit: Closes if price breaches stop (close < long_stop_price or close > short_stop_price).
Reset: Clears stop/TP prices when flat (position_size = 0).
Why It’s Brilliant:
Score-based entries ensure multi-factor confirmation, filtering out weak signals.
Trailing stops maximize profits in trends, unlike static exits in basic scripts.
Emergency exits add an extra safety layer, critical for futures volatility.
5. DAFE Visuals
The visuals are pure DAFE magic, blending function with cyberpunk flair to make signals intuitive and charts stunning.
Shimmering Bollinger Band Fill:
Display: BB basis (20, white), upper/lower (green/red, 45% transparent). Fill pulses (30–50 alpha) by regime, with glow (60–95 alpha) near bands (close ≥ 0.995x upper or ≤ 1.005x lower).
Purpose: Highlights volatility and key levels with a futuristic glow.
Visuals make complex regimes and signals instantly clear, even for newbies.
Pulsing effects and regime-specific colors add a DAFE signature, setting it apart from generic scripts.
BB glow emphasizes tradeable levels, enhancing decision-making.
Chart Background (Regime Heatmap):
Green — Trending Market: Strong, sustained price movement in one direction. The market is in a trend phase—momentum follows through.
Orange — Range-Bound: Market is consolidating or moving sideways, with no clear up/down trend. Great for mean reversion setups.
Red — Volatile Regime: High volatility, heightened risk, and larger/faster price swings—trade with caution.
Gray — Quiet/Low Volatility: Market is calm and inactive, with small moves—often poor conditions for most strategies.
Navy — Other/Neutral: Regime is uncertain or mixed; signals may be less reliable.
Bollinger Bands Glow (Dynamic Fill):
Neon Red Glow — Warning!: Price is near or breaking above the upper band; momentum is overstretched, watch for overbought conditions or reversals.
Bright Green Glow — Opportunity!: Price is near or breaking below the lower band; market could be oversold, prime for bounce or reversal.
Trend Green Fill — Trending Regime: Fills between bands with green when the market is trending, showing clear momentum.
Gold/Yellow Fill — Range Regime: Fills with gold/aqua in range conditions, showing the market is sideways/oscillating.
Magenta/Red Fill — Volatility Spike: Fills with vivid magenta/red during highly volatile regimes.
Blue Fill — Neutral/Quiet: A soft blue glow for other or uncertain market states.
Moving Averages:
Display: Blue fast EMA (20), red slow EMA (50), 2px.
Purpose: Shows trend direction, with trend_dir requiring ATR-scaled spread.
Dynamic SL/TP Lines:
Display: Pulsing colors (red SL, green TP for Trending; yellow/orange for Range, etc.), 3px, with pulse_alpha for shimmer.
Purpose: Tracks stops/TPs in real-time, color-coded by regime.
6. Dual Dashboards
Two dashboards deliver real-time insights, making the strat a quant command center.
Bottom-Left Metrics Dashboard (2x13):
Metrics: Mode (Active/Paused), trend (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral), ATR, ATR avg, volume spike (YES/NO), RSI (value + Oversold/Overbought/Neutral), HTF RSI, HTF trend, last signal (Buy/Sell/None), regime, bull score.
Display: Black (29% transparent), purple title, color-coded (green for bullish, red for bearish).
Purpose: Consolidates market context and signal strength.
Top-Right Position Dashboard (2x7):
Metrics: Regime, position side (Long/Short/None), position PNL ($), SL, TP, daily PNL ($).
Display: Black (29% transparent), purple title, color-coded (lime for Long, red for Short).
Purpose: Tracks live trades and profitability.
Why It’s Brilliant:
Dual dashboards cover market context and trade status, a rare feature.
Color-coding and concise metrics guide beginners (e.g., green “Buy” = go).
Real-time PNL and SL/TP visibility empower disciplined trading.
7. Performance Tracking
Logic: Arrays (regime_pnl_long/short, regime_win/loss_long/short) track PNL and win/loss by regime (1–5). Updated on trade close (barstate.isconfirmed).
Purpose: Prepares for future adaptive thresholds (e.g., adjust bull_score min based on regime performance).
Why It’s Brilliant: Lays the groundwork for self-optimizing logic, a quant edge over static scripts.
Key Features
Regime-Adaptive: Optimizes signals for Trending, Range, Volatile, Quiet markets.
Futures-Optimized: Precise sizing for ES/MES with tick-based risk inputs.
Multi-Factor Signals: Candlestick patterns, RSI, MACD, and HTF confirmation for robust entries.
Dynamic Exits: ATR/fixed stops, 2:1 TPs, and trailing stops maximize profits.
Safe and Smart: 5% drawdown breaker and emergency exits protect capital.
DAFE Visuals: Shimmering BB fill, pulsing SL/TP, and dual dashboards.
Backtest-Ready: Fixed qty and tick calc for accurate historical testing.
How to Use
Add to Chart: Load on a 5min ES/MES chart in TradingView.
Configure Inputs: Set instrument (ES/MES), tick value ($12.5/$1.25), multiplier (1/0.1), risk ($300 default). Enable ATR stops for volatility.
Monitor Dashboards: Bottom-left for regime/signals, top-right for position/PNL.
Backtest: Run in strategy tester to compare regimes.
Live Trade: Connect to Tradovate or similar. Watch for slippage (e.g., April 27, 2025 ES issues).
Replay Test: Try April 28, 2025 NQ drop to see regime shifts and stops.
Disclaimer
Trading futures involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtest results may differ from live trading due to slippage, fees, or market conditions. Use this strategy at your own risk, and consult a financial advisor before trading. Dskyz (DAFE) Trading Systems is not responsible for any losses incurred.
Backtesting:
Frame: 2023-09-20 - 2025-04-29
Slippage: 3
Fee Typical Range (per side, per contract)
CME Exchange $1.14 – $1.20
Clearing $0.10 – $0.30
NFA Regulatory $0.02
Firm/Broker Commis. $0.25 – $0.80 (retail prop)
TOTAL $1.60 – $2.30 per side
Round Turn: (enter+exit) = $3.20 – $4.60 per contract
Final Notes
The Dskyz (DAFE) Adaptive Regime - Quant Machine Pro is more than a strategy—it’s a revolution. Crafted with DAFE’s signature precision, it rises above generic scripts with adaptive regimes, quant-grade signals, and visuals that make trading a thrill. Whether you’re scalping MES or swinging ES, this system empowers you to navigate markets with confidence and style. Join the DAFE crew, light up your charts, and let’s dominate the futures game!
(This publishing will most likely be taken down do to some miscellaneous rule about properly displaying charting symbols, or whatever. Once I've identified what part of the publishing they want to pick on, I'll adjust and repost.)
Use it with discipline. Use it with clarity. Trade smarter.
**I will continue to release incredible strategies and indicators until I turn this into a brand or until someone offers me a contract.
Created by Dskyz, powered by DAFE Trading Systems. Trade smart, trade bold.
Dskyz (DAFE) Aurora Divergence – Quant Master Dskyz (DAFE) Aurora Divergence – Quant Master
Introducing the Dskyz (DAFE) Aurora Divergence – Quant Master , a strategy that’s your secret weapon for mastering futures markets like MNQ, NQ, MES, and ES. Born from the legendary Aurora Divergence indicator, this fully automated system transforms raw divergence signals into a quant-grade trading machine, blending precision, risk management, and cyberpunk DAFE visuals that make your charts glow like a neon skyline. Crafted with care and driven by community passion, this strategy stands out in a sea of generic scripts, offering traders a unique edge to outsmart institutional traps and navigate volatile markets.
The Aurora Divergence indicator was a cult favorite for spotting price-OBV divergences with its aqua and fuchsia orbs, but traders craved a system to act on those signals with discipline and automation. This strategy delivers, layering advanced filters (z-score, ATR, multi-timeframe, session), dynamic risk controls (kill switches, adaptive stops/TPs), and a real-time dashboard to turn insights into profits. Whether you’re a newbie dipping into futures or a pro hunting reversals, this strat’s got your back with a beginner guide, alerts, and visuals that make trading feel like a sci-fi mission. Let’s dive into every detail and see why this original DAFE creation is a must-have.
Why Traders Need This Strategy
Futures markets are a battlefield—fast-paced, volatile, and riddled with institutional games that can wipe out undisciplined traders. From the April 28, 2025 NQ 1k-point drop to sneaky ES slippage, the stakes are high. Meanwhile, platforms are flooded with unoriginal, low-effort scripts that promise the moon but deliver noise. The Aurora Divergence – Quant Master rises above, offering:
Unmatched Originality: A bespoke system built from the ground up, with custom divergence logic, DAFE visuals, and quant filters that set it apart from copycat clutter.
Automation with Precision: Executes trades on divergence signals, eliminating emotional slip-ups and ensuring consistency, even in chaotic sessions.
Quant-Grade Filters: Z-score, ATR, multi-timeframe, and session checks filter out noise, targeting high-probability reversals.
Robust Risk Management: Daily loss and rolling drawdown kill switches, plus ATR-based stops/TPs, protect your capital like a fortress.
Stunning DAFE Visuals: Aqua/fuchsia orbs, aurora bands, and a glowing dashboard make signals intuitive and charts a work of art.
Community-Driven: Evolved from trader feedback, this strat’s a labor of love, not a recycled knockoff.
Traders need this because it’s a complete, original system that blends accessibility, sophistication, and style. It’s your edge to trade smarter, not harder, in a market full of traps and imitators.
1. Divergence Detection (Core Signal Logic)
The strategy’s core is its ability to detect bullish and bearish divergences between price and On-Balance Volume (OBV), pinpointing reversals with surgical accuracy.
How It Works:
Price Slope: Uses linear regression over a lookback (default: 9 bars) to measure price momentum (priceSlope).
OBV Slope: OBV tracks volume flow (+volume if price rises, -volume if falls), with its slope calculated similarly (obvSlope).
Bullish Divergence: Price slope negative (falling), OBV slope positive (rising), and price above 50-bar SMA (trend_ma).
Bearish Divergence: Price slope positive (rising), OBV slope negative (falling), and price below 50-bar SMA.
Smoothing: Requires two consecutive divergence bars (bullDiv2, bearDiv2) to confirm signals, reducing false positives.
Strength: Divergence intensity (divStrength = |priceSlope * obvSlope| * sensitivity) is normalized (0–1, divStrengthNorm) for visuals.
Why It’s Brilliant:
- Divergences catch hidden momentum shifts, often exploited by institutions, giving you an edge on reversals.
- The 50-bar SMA filter aligns signals with the broader trend, avoiding choppy markets.
- Adjustable lookback (min: 3) and sensitivity (default: 1.0) let you tune for different instruments or timeframes.
2. Filters for Precision
Four advanced filters ensure signals are high-probability and market-aligned, cutting through the noise of volatile futures.
Z-Score Filter:
Logic: Calculates z-score ((close - SMA) / stdev) over a lookback (default: 50 bars). Blocks entries if |z-score| > threshold (default: 1.5) unless disabled (useZFilter = false).
Impact: Avoids trades during extreme price moves (e.g., blow-off tops), keeping you in statistically safe zones.
ATR Percentile Volatility Filter:
Logic: Tracks 14-bar ATR in a 100-bar window (default). Requires current ATR > 80th percentile (percATR) to trade (tradeOk).
Impact: Ensures sufficient volatility for meaningful moves, filtering out low-volume chop.
Multi-Timeframe (HTF) Trend Filter:
Logic: Uses a 50-bar SMA on a higher timeframe (default: 60min). Longs require price > HTF MA (bullTrendOK), shorts < HTF MA (bearTrendOK).
Impact: Aligns trades with the bigger trend, reducing counter-trend losses.
US Session Filter:
Logic: Restricts trading to 9:30am–4:00pm ET (default: enabled, useSession = true) using America/New_York timezone.
Impact: Focuses on high-liquidity hours, avoiding overnight spreads and erratic moves.
Evolution:
- These filters create a robust signal pipeline, ensuring trades are timed for optimal conditions.
- Customizable inputs (e.g., zThreshold, atrPercentile) let traders adapt to their style without compromising quality.
3. Risk Management
The strategy’s risk controls are a masterclass in balancing aggression and safety, protecting capital in volatile markets.
Daily Loss Kill Switch:
Logic: Tracks daily loss (dayStartEquity - strategy.equity). Halts trading if loss ≥ $300 (default) and enabled (killSwitch = true, killSwitchActive).
Impact: Caps daily downside, crucial during events like April 27, 2025 ES slippage.
Rolling Drawdown Kill Switch:
Logic: Monitors drawdown (rollingPeak - strategy.equity) over 100 bars (default). Stops trading if > $1000 (rollingKill).
Impact: Prevents prolonged losing streaks, preserving capital for better setups.
Dynamic Stop-Loss and Take-Profit:
Logic: Stops = entry ± ATR * multiplier (default: 1.0x, stopDist). TPs = entry ± ATR * 1.5x (profitDist). Longs: stop below, TP above; shorts: vice versa.
Impact: Adapts to volatility, keeping stops tight but realistic, with TPs targeting 1.5:1 reward/risk.
Max Bars in Trade:
Logic: Closes trades after 8 bars (default) if not already exited.
Impact: Frees capital from stagnant trades, maintaining efficiency.
Kill Switch Buffer Dashboard:
Logic: Shows smallest buffer ($300 - daily loss or $1000 - rolling DD). Displays 0 (red) if kill switch active, else buffer (green).
Impact: Real-time risk visibility, letting traders adjust dynamically.
Why It’s Brilliant:
- Kill switches and ATR-based exits create a safety net, rare in generic scripts.
- Customizable risk inputs (maxDailyLoss, dynamicStopMult) suit different account sizes.
- Buffer metric empowers disciplined trading, a DAFE signature.
4. Trade Entry and Exit Logic
The entry/exit rules are precise, filtered, and adaptive, ensuring trades are deliberate and profitable.
Entry Conditions:
Long Entry: bullDiv2, cooldown passed (canSignal), ATR filter passed (tradeOk), in US session (inSession), no kill switches (not killSwitchActive, not rollingKill), z-score OK (zOk), HTF trend bullish (bullTrendOK), no existing long (lastDirection != 1, position_size <= 0). Closes shorts first.
Short Entry: Same, but for bearDiv2, bearTrendOK, no long (lastDirection != -1, position_size >= 0). Closes longs first.
Adaptive Cooldown: Default 2 bars (cooldownBars). Doubles (up to 10) after a losing trade, resets after wins (dynamicCooldown).
Exit Conditions:
Stop-Loss/Take-Profit: Set per trade (ATR-based). Exits on stop/TP hits.
Other Exits: Closes if maxBarsInTrade reached, ATR filter fails, or kill switch activates.
Position Management: Ensures no conflicting positions, closing opposites before new entries.
Built To Be Reliable and Consistent:
- Multi-filtered entries minimize false signals, a stark contrast to basic scripts.
- Adaptive cooldown prevents overtrading, especially after losses.
- Clean position handling ensures smooth execution, even in fast markets.
5. DAFE Visuals
The visuals are a DAFE hallmark, blending function with clean flair to make signals intuitive and charts stunning.
Aurora Bands:
Display: Bands around price during divergences (bullish: below low, bearish: above high), sized by ATR * bandwidth (default: 0.5).
Colors: Aqua (bullish), fuchsia (bearish), with transparency tied to divStrengthNorm.
Purpose: Highlights divergence zones with a glowing, futuristic vibe.
Divergence Orbs:
Display: Large/small circles (aqua below for bullish, fuchsia above for bearish) when bullDiv2/bearDiv2 and canSignal. Labels show strength (0–1).
Purpose: Pinpoints entries with eye-catching clarity.
Gradient Background:
Display: Green (bullish), red (bearish), or gray (neutral), 90–95% transparent.
Purpose: Sets the market mood without clutter.
Strategy Plots:
- Stop/TP Lines: Red (stops), green (TPs) for active trades.
- HTF MA: Yellow line for trend context.
- Z-Score: Blue step-line (if enabled).
- Kill Switch Warning: Red background flash when active.
What Makes This Next-Level?:
- Visuals make complex signals (divergences, filters) instantly clear, even for beginners.
- DAFE’s unique aesthetic (orbs, bands) sets it apart from generic scripts, reinforcing originality.
- Functional plots (stops, TPs) enhance trade management.
6. Metrics Dashboard
The top-right dashboard (2x8 table) is your command center, delivering real-time insights.
Metrics:
Daily Loss ($): Current loss vs. day’s start, red if > $300.
Rolling DD ($): Drawdown vs. 100-bar peak, red if > $1000.
ATR Threshold: Current percATR, green if ATR exceeds, red if not.
Z-Score: Current value, green if within threshold, red if not.
Signal: “Bullish Div” (aqua), “Bearish Div” (fuchsia), or “None” (gray).
Action: “Consider Buying”/“Consider Selling” (signal color) or “Wait” (gray).
Kill Switch Buffer ($): Smallest buffer to kill switch, green if > 0, red if 0.
Why This Is Important?:
- Consolidates critical data, making decisions effortless.
- Color-coded metrics guide beginners (e.g., green action = go).
- Buffer metric adds transparency, rare in off-the-shelf scripts.
7. Beginner Guide
Beginner Guide: Middle-right table (shown once on chart load), explains aqua orbs (bullish, buy) and fuchsia orbs (bearish, sell).
Key Features:
Futures-Optimized: Tailored for MNQ, NQ, MES, ES with point-value adjustments.
Highly Customizable: Inputs for lookback, sensitivity, filters, and risk settings.
Real-Time Insights: Dashboard and visuals update every bar.
Backtest-Ready: Fixed qty and tick calc for accurate historical testing.
User-Friendly: Guide, visuals, and dashboard make it accessible yet powerful.
Original Design: DAFE’s unique logic and visuals stand out from generic scripts.
How to Use
Add to Chart: Load on a 5min MNQ/ES chart in TradingView.
Configure Inputs: Adjust instrument, filters, or risk (defaults optimized for MNQ).
Monitor Dashboard: Watch signals, actions, and risk metrics (top-right).
Backtest: Run in strategy tester to evaluate performance.
Live Trade: Connect to a broker (e.g., Tradovate) for automation. Watch for slippage (e.g., April 27, 2025 ES issues).
Replay Test: Use bar replay (e.g., April 28, 2025 NQ drop) to test volatility handling.
Disclaimer
Trading futures involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Backtest results may not reflect live trading due to slippage, fees, or market conditions. Use this strategy at your own risk, and consult a financial advisor before trading. Dskyz (DAFE) Trading Systems is not responsible for any losses incurred.
Backtesting:
Frame: 2023-09-20 - 2025-04-29
Fee Typical Range (per side, per contract)
CME Exchange $1.14 – $1.20
Clearing $0.10 – $0.30
NFA Regulatory $0.02
Firm/Broker Commis. $0.25 – $0.80 (retail prop)
TOTAL $1.60 – $2.30 per side
Round Turn: (enter+exit) = $3.20 – $4.60 per contract
Final Notes
The Dskyz (DAFE) Aurora Divergence – Quant Master isn’t just a strategy—it’s a movement. Crafted with originality and driven by community passion, it rises above the flood of generic scripts to deliver a system that’s as powerful as it is beautiful. With its quant-grade logic, DAFE visuals, and robust risk controls, it empowers traders to tackle futures with confidence and style. Join the DAFE crew, light up your charts, and let’s outsmart the markets together!
(This publishing will most likely be taken down do to some miscellaneous rule about properly displaying charting symbols, or whatever. Once I've identified what part of the publishing they want to pick on, I'll adjust and repost.)
Use it with discipline. Use it with clarity. Trade smarter.
**I will continue to release incredible strategies and indicators until I turn this into a brand or until someone offers me a contract.
Created by Dskyz, powered by DAFE Trading Systems. Trade fast, trade bold.
Prop Firm Business SimulatorThe prop firm business simulator is exactly what it sounds like. It's a plug and play tool to test out any tradingview strategy and simulate hypothetical performance on CFD Prop Firms.
Now what is a modern day CFD Prop Firm?
These companies sell simulated trading challenges for a challenge fee. If you complete the challenge you get access to simulated capital and you get a portion of the profits you make on those accounts payed out.
I've included some popular firms in the code as presets so it's easy to simulate them. Take into account that this info will likely be out of date soon as these prices and challenge conditions change.
Also, this tool will never be able to 100% simulate prop firm conditions and all their rules. All I aim to do with this tool is provide estimations.
Now why is this tool helpful?
Most traders on here want to turn their passion into their full-time career, prop firms have lately been the buzz in the trading community and market themselves as a faster way to reach that goal.
While this all sounds great on paper, it is sometimes hard to estimate how much money you will have to burn on challenge fees and set realistic monthly payout expectations for yourself and your trading. This is where this tool comes in.
I've specifically developed this for traders that want to treat prop firms as a business. And as a business you want to know your monthly costs and income depending on the trading strategy and prop firm challenge you are using.
How to use this tool
It's quite simple you remove the top part of the script and replace it with your own strategy. Make sure it's written in same version of pinescript before you do that.
//--$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$--//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------$$$$$$
//--$$$$$--Strategy-- --$$$$$$--// ******************************************************************************************************************************
//--$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$--//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------$$$$$$
length = input.int(20, minval=1, group="Keltner Channel Breakout")
mult = input(2.0, "Multiplier", group="Keltner Channel Breakout")
src = input(close, title="Source", group="Keltner Channel Breakout")
exp = input(true, "Use Exponential MA", display = display.data_window, group="Keltner Channel Breakout")
BandsStyle = input.string("Average True Range", options = , title="Bands Style", display = display.data_window, group="Keltner Channel Breakout")
atrlength = input(10, "ATR Length", display = display.data_window, group="Keltner Channel Breakout")
esma(source, length)=>
s = ta.sma(source, length)
e = ta.ema(source, length)
exp ? e : s
ma = esma(src, length)
rangema = BandsStyle == "True Range" ? ta.tr(true) : BandsStyle == "Average True Range" ? ta.atr(atrlength) : ta.rma(high - low, length)
upper = ma + rangema * mult
lower = ma - rangema * mult
//--Graphical Display--// *-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-$$$$$$
u = plot(upper, color=#2962FF, title="Upper", force_overlay=true)
plot(ma, color=#2962FF, title="Basis", force_overlay=true)
l = plot(lower, color=#2962FF, title="Lower", force_overlay=true)
fill(u, l, color=color.rgb(33, 150, 243, 95), title="Background")
//--Risk Management--// *-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-$$$$$$
riskPerTradePerc = input.float(1, title="Risk per trade (%)", group="Keltner Channel Breakout")
le = high>upper ? false : true
se = lowlower
strategy.entry('PivRevLE', strategy.long, comment = 'PivRevLE', stop = upper, qty=riskToLots)
if se and upper>lower
strategy.entry('PivRevSE', strategy.short, comment = 'PivRevSE', stop = lower, qty=riskToLots)
The tool will then use the strategy equity of your own strategy and use this to simulat prop firms. Since these CFD prop firms work with different phases and payouts the indicator will simulate the gains until target or max drawdown / daily drawdown limit gets reached. If it reaches target it will go to the next phase and keep on doing that until it fails a challenge.
If in one of the phases there is a reward for completing, like a payout, refund, extra it will add this to the gains.
If you fail the challenge by reaching max drawdown or daily drawdown limit it will substract the challenge fee from the gains.
These gains are then visualised in the calendar so you can get an idea of yearly / monthly gains of the backtest. Remember, it is just a backtest so no guarantees of future income.
The bottom pane (non-overlay) is visualising the performance of the backtest during the phases. This way u can check if it is realistic. For instance if it only takes 1 bar on chart to reach target you are probably risking more than the firm wants you to risk. Also, it becomes much less clear if daily drawdown got hit in those high risk strategies, the results will be less accurate.
The daily drawdown limit get's reset every time there is a new dayofweek on chart.
If you set your prop firm preset setting to "'custom" the settings below that are applied as your prop firm settings. Otherwise it will use one of the template by default it's FTMO 100K.
The strategy I'm using as an example in this script is a simple Keltner Channel breakout strategy. I'm using a 0.05% commission per trade as that is what I found most common on crypto exchanges and it's close to the commissions+spread you get on a cfd prop firm. I'm targeting a 1% risk per trade in the backtest to try and stay within prop firm boundaries of max 1% risk per trade.
Lastly, the original yearly and monthly performance table was developed by Quantnomad and I've build ontop of that code. Here's a link to the original publication:
That's everything for now, hope this indicator helps people visualise the potential of prop firms better or to understand that they are not a good fit for their current financial situation.
Collatz Conjecture - DolphinTradeBot1️⃣ Overview
Every positive number follows its own unique path to reach 1 according to the Collatz rule.
Some numbers reach the end quickly and directly.
Others rise significantly before crashing down sharply.
Some get stuck within a certain range for a while before finally reaching 1.
Each number follows a different pattern — the number of steps it takes, how high it climbs, or which values it passes through cannot be predicted in advance.
This is a structure that appears chaotic but ultimately leads to order:
Every number reaches 1, but the way it gets there is entirely uncertain.
2️⃣ How Is It Work?
The rule is simple:
▪️ If the number is even → divide it by two.
▪️ If it’s odd → multiply it by three and add one.
Repeat this process at each step.
Example :
Let’s say the starting number is 7:
7 → 22 → 11 → 34 → 17 → 52 → 26 → 13 → 40 → 20 → 10 → 5 → 16 → 8 → 4 → 2 → 1
It reaches 1 in 17 steps.
And from there, it always enters the same cycle:
4 → 2 → 1 → 4 → 2 → 1...
3️⃣ Why Is It Worth Learning?
🎯 This indicator isn’t just mathematical fun—it’s a thought experiment for those who dare to question market behavior.
▪️ It’s fun.
Watching numbers behave in unpredictable ways from a simple rule set is surprisingly enjoyable.
▪️ It shows how hard it is to teach a computer what randomness really is .
The Collatz process can be used to simulate chaotic behavior and may even inspire creative ways to introduce complexity into your code.
▪️ It makes you think — especially in financial markets.
The patternless, yet rule-based structure of Collatz can help train your mind to recognize that not all unpredictability is random. It’s a great mental model for navigating complex systems like price action.
▪️ Just like price movements in financial markets, this ancient problem remains unsolved.
Despite its simplicity, the Collatz conjecture has resisted proof for decades — a reminder that even the most basic-looking systems can hide deep complexity.
4️⃣ How To Use?
Super easy — in the indicator’s settings, there’s just one input field.
Enter any positive number, and you’ll see the pattern it follows on its way to 1.
You can also observe how many steps it takes and which values it visits in the info box at the top center of the chart.
5️⃣ Some Examples
You Can Observe the Chaos in the Following Examples⤵️
For Input Number → 12
For Input Number → 13
For Input Number → 14
For Input Number → 32768
For Input Number → 47
DCA StrategyThis strategy makes it easy for you to backtest and automate the DCA strategy based on 2 triggers:
Day of the week
Every X candles
This way you can set up your DCA strategy the way you like and automate on any exchange or even a DEX, which offers an API.
The strategy is auto selling on the last candle, otherwise you won't see any performance numbers because all positions will still be open (non conclusive).
Settings
Start Date & End Date
Use those dates to help you with your backtest period. It also helps when automating, to start at a specific time to mimic what you have already done on your own portfolio and thus be in sync in TV as well.
Capital to invest per trade
Set how capital to use per DCA buy signal. Hover over the tooltip to understand, which currency is used.
Close All on last candle
When backtesting, you must close open positions, otherwise the Strategy Tester won't show you any numbers. This is why the strategy automatically closes all positions on the last candle for your convenience (ON per default).
BUT, when automating, you cannot have this checked because it would sell all of your asset on every candle open. So turn this OFF when automating.
Use Day of Week Mode
This checkbox switches between the "Day of Week" mode or the "Every X Candles" mode.
Day of Week
Opens a long position at the start of the weekday you have set it to.
Hover over the tooltip to understand, which number to use for the day of the week you need.
Every X Candles
Opens a long position after every x candles. Always at the start of every such candle.
On the daily chart, this number represents "1 day", on the 1h chart, it's "1 hour" and so on.
Properties
Initial Capital
DCA has a special quirk and that is that it invests more and more and more funds the longer it runs. But TradingView takes the Initial Capital number to calculate Net Profit, thus the Initial Capital number has to grow with every additional dollar (money) that is being invested over time, otherwise the Net Profit number will be wrong.
Sadly PineScript does not allow to set the Initial Capital number dynamically. So you have to set it manually.
To that end, this strategy shows a Label on the last candle, which shows the Invested Capital. You must take that number and put it into the Initial Capital input and click Ok .
If you don't do this, your Net Profit Number will be totally wrong!
The label must show green .
If it shows red it means you need to change the Initial Capital number before looking at the performance numbers.
After every timeframe or settings change, you must adapt the Initial Capital, otherwise you will get wrong numbers.
Follow Line Strategy Version 2.5 (React HTF)Follow Line Strategy v2.5 (React HTF) - TradingView Script Usage
This strategy utilizes a "Follow Line" concept based on Bollinger Bands and ATR to identify potential trading opportunities. It includes advanced features like optional working hours filtering, higher timeframe (HTF) trend confirmation, and improved trend-following entry/exit logic. Version 2.5 introduces reactivity to HTF trend changes for more adaptive trading.
Key Features:
Follow Line: The core of the strategy. It dynamically adjusts based on price breakouts beyond Bollinger Bands, using either the low/high or ATR-adjusted levels.
Bollinger Bands: Uses a standard Bollinger Bands setup to identify overbought/oversold conditions.
ATR Filter: Optionally uses the Average True Range (ATR) to adjust the Follow Line offset, providing a more dynamic and volatility-adjusted entry point.
Optional Trading Session Filter: Allows you to restrict trading to specific hours of the day.
Higher Timeframe (HTF) Confirmation: A significant feature that allows you to confirm trade signals with the trend on a higher timeframe. This can help to filter out false signals and improve the overall win rate.
HTF Selection Method: Choose between Auto and Manual HTF selection:
Auto: The script automatically determines the appropriate HTF based on the current chart timeframe (e.g., 1min -> 15min, 5min -> 4h, 1h -> 1D, Daily -> Monthly).
Manual: Allows you to select a specific HTF using the Manual Higher Timeframe input.
Trend-Following Entries/Exits: The strategy aims to enter trades in the direction of the established trend, using the Follow Line to define the trend.
Reactive HTF Trend Changes: v2.5 exits positions not only based on the trade timeframe (TTF) trend changing, but also when the higher timeframe trend reverses against the position. This makes the strategy more responsive to larger market movements.
Alerts: Provides buy and sell alerts for convenient trading signal notifications.
Visualizations: Plots the Follow Line for both the trade timeframe and the higher timeframe (optional), making it easy to understand the strategy's logic.
How to Use:
Add to Chart: Add the "Follow Line Strategy Version 2.5 (React HTF)" script to your TradingView chart.
Configure Settings: Customize the strategy's settings to match your trading style and preferences. Here's a breakdown of the key settings:
Indicator Settings:
ATR Period: The period used to calculate the ATR. A smaller period is more sensitive to recent price changes.
Bollinger Bands Period: The period used for the Bollinger Bands calculation. A longer period results in smoother bands.
Bollinger Bands Deviation: The number of standard deviations from the moving average that the Bollinger Bands are plotted. Higher deviations create wider bands.
Use ATR for Follow Line Offset?: Enable to use ATR to calculate the Follow Line offset. Disable to use the simple high/low.
Show Trade Signals on Chart?: Enable to show BUY/SELL labels on the chart.
Time Filter:
Use Trading Session Filter?: Enable to restrict trading to specific hours of the day.
Trading Session: The trading session to use (e.g., 0930-1600 for regular US stock market hours). Use 0000-2400 for all hours.
Higher Timeframe Confirmation:
Enable HTF Confirmation?: Enable to use the HTF trend to filter trade signals. If enabled, only trades in the direction of the HTF trend will be taken.
HTF Selection Method: Choose between "Auto" and "Manual" HTF selection.
Manual Higher Timeframe: If "Manual" is selected, choose the specific HTF (e.g., 240 for 4 hours, D for daily).
Show HTF Follow Line?: Enable to plot the HTF Follow Line on the chart.
Understanding the Signals:
Buy Signal: The price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band, and the HTF (if enabled) confirms the uptrend.
Sell Signal: The price breaks below the lower Bollinger Band, and the HTF (if enabled) confirms the downtrend.
Exit Long: The trade timeframe trend changes to downtrend or the higher timeframe trend changes to downtrend.
Exit Short: The trade timeframe trend changes to uptrend or the higher timeframe trend changes to uptrend.
Alerts:
The script includes alert conditions for buy and sell signals. To set up alerts, click the "Alerts" button in TradingView and select the desired alert condition from the script. The alert message provides the ticker and interval.
Backtesting and Optimization:
Use TradingView's Strategy Tester to backtest the strategy on different assets and timeframes.
Experiment with different settings to optimize the strategy for your specific trading style and risk tolerance. Pay close attention to the ATR Period, Bollinger Bands settings, and the HTF confirmation options.
Tips and Considerations:
HTF Confirmation: The HTF confirmation can significantly improve the strategy's performance by filtering out false signals. However, it can also reduce the number of trades.
Risk Management: Always use proper risk management techniques, such as stop-loss orders and position sizing, when trading any strategy.
Market Conditions: The strategy may perform differently in different market conditions. It's important to backtest and optimize the strategy for the specific markets you are trading.
Customization: Feel free to modify the script to suit your specific needs. For example, you could add additional filters or entry/exit conditions.
Pyramiding: The pyramiding = 0 setting prevents multiple entries in the same direction, ensuring the strategy doesn't compound losses. You can adjust this value if you prefer to pyramid into winning positions, but be cautious.
Lookahead: The lookahead = barmerge.lookahead_off setting ensures that the HTF data is calculated based on the current bar's closed data, preventing potential future peeking bias.
Trend Determination: The logic for determining the HTF trend and reacting to changes is critical. Carefully review the f_calculateHTFData function and the conditions for exiting positions to ensure you understand how the strategy responds to different market scenarios.
Disclaimer:
This script is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice, and you should not trade based solely on the signals generated by this script. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this script.
Smart Grid Scalping (Pullback) Strategy[BullByte]The Smart Grid Scalping (Pullback) Strategy is a high-frequency trading strategy designed for short-term traders who seek to capitalize on market pullbacks. This strategy utilizes a dynamic ATR-based grid system to define optimal entry points, ensuring precise trade execution. It integrates volatility filtering and an RSI-based confirmation mechanism to enhance signal accuracy and reduce false entries.
This strategy is specifically optimized for scalping by dynamically adjusting trade levels based on current market conditions. The grid-based system helps capture retracement opportunities while maintaining strict trade management through predefined profit targets and trailing stop-loss mechanisms.
Key Features :
1. ATR-Based Grid System :
- Uses a 10-period ATR to dynamically calculate grid levels for entry points.
- Prevents chasing trades by ensuring price has reached key levels before executing entries.
2. No Trade Zone Protection :
- Avoids low-volatility zones where price action is indecisive.
- Ensures only high-momentum trades are executed to improve success rate.
3. RSI-Based Entry Confirmation :
- Long trades are triggered when RSI is below 30 (oversold) and price is in the lower grid zone.
- Short trades are triggered when RSI is above 70 (overbought) and price is in the upper grid zone.
4. Automated Trade Execution :
- Long Entry: Triggered when price drops below the first grid level with sufficient volatility.
- Short Entry: Triggered when price exceeds the highest grid level with sufficient volatility.
5. Take Profit & Trailing Stop :
- Profit target set at a customizable percentage (default 0.2%).
- Adaptive trailing stop mechanism using ATR to lock in profits while minimizing premature exits.
6. Visual Trade Annotations :
- Clearly labeled "LONG" and "SHORT" markers appear at trade entries for better visualization.
- Grid levels are plotted dynamically to aid decision-making.
Strategy Logic :
- The script first calculates the ATR-based grid levels and ensures price action has sufficient volatility before allowing trades.
- An additional RSI filter is used to ensure trades are taken at ideal market conditions.
- Once a trade is executed, the script implements a trailing stop and predefined take profit to maximize gains while reducing risks.
---
Disclaimer :
Risk Warning :
This strategy is provided for educational and informational purposes only. Trading involves significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Users are advised to conduct their own due diligence and risk management before using this strategy in live trading.
The developer and publisher of this script are not responsible for any financial losses incurred by the use of this strategy. Market conditions, slippage, and execution quality can affect real-world trading outcomes.
Use this script at your own discretion and always trade responsibly.
Econometrica by [SS]This is Econometrica, an indicator that aims to bridge a big gap between the resources available for analysis of fundamental data and its impact on tickers and price action.
I have noticed a general dearth of available indicators that offer insight into how fundamentals impact a ticker and provide guidance on how they these economic factors influence ticker behaviour.
Enter Econometrica. Econometrica is a math based indicator that aims to co-integrate and model indicator price action in relation to critical economic metrics.
Econometrica supports the following US based economic data:
CPI
Non-Farm Payroll
Core Inflation
US Money Supply
US Central Bank Balance Sheet
GDP
PCE
Let's go over the functions of Econometrica.
Creating a Regression Cointegrated Model
The first thing Econometrica does is creates a co-integrated regression, as you see in the main chart, predicting ticker value ranges from fundamental economic data.
You can visualize this in the main chart above, but here are some other examples:
SPY vs Core Inflation:
BA vs PCE:
QQQ vs US Balance Sheet:
The band represents the anticipated range the ticker should theoretically fall in based on the underlying economic value. The indicator will breakdown the relationship between the economic indicator and the ticker more precisely. In the images above, you can see how there are some metrics provided, including Stationairty, lagged correlation, Integrated Correlation and R2. Let's discuss these very briefly:
Stationarity: checks to ensure that the relationship between the economic indicator and ticker is stationary. Stationary data is important for making unbiased inferences and projections, so having data that is stationary is valuable.
Lagged Correlation: This is a very interesting metric. Lagged correlation means whether there is a delay in the economic indicator and the response of the ticker. Typically, you will observed a lagged correlation between an economic indicator and price of a ticker, as it can take some time for economic changes to reach the market. This lagged correlation will provide you with how long it takes for the economic indicator to catch up with the ticker in months.
Integrated Correlation: This metric tells you how good of a fit the regression bands are in relation to the ticker price. A higher correlation, means the model is better at consistent and accurate information about the anticipated range for the ticker in relation to the economic indicator.
R2: Provides information on the variance and degree of model fit. A high R2 value means that the model is capable of explaining a large amount of variance between the economic indicator and the ticker price action.
Explaining the Relationship
Owning to the fact that the indicator is a bit on the mathy side (it has to be to do this kind of task), I have included ability for the indicator to explain and make suggestions based on the underlying data. It can assess the model's fit and make suggestions for tweaking. It can also explain the implications of the data being presented in the model.
Here is an example with QQQ and the US Balance Sheet:
This helps to simplify and interpret the results you are looking at.
Forecasting the Economic Indicator
In addition to assessing the economic indicator's impact on the ticker, the indicator is also capable of forecasting out the economic indicator over the next 25 releases.
Here is an example of the CPI forecast:
Overall use of the indicator
The indicator is meant to bridge the gap between Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis.
Any trader who is attune to fundamentals would benefit from this, as this provides you with objective data on how and to what extent fundamental and economic data impacts tickers.
It can help affirm hypothesis and dispel myths objectively.
It also omits the need from having to perform these types of analyses outside of Tradingview (i.e. in excel, R or Python), as you can get the data in just a few licks of enabling the indicator.
Conclusion
I have tried to make this indicator as user friendly as possible. Though it uses a lot of math, it is fairly straight forward to interpret.
The band plotted can be considered the fair market value or FMV of the ticker based on the underlying economic data, provided the indicator tells you that the relationship is significant (and it will blatantly give you this information verbatim, you don't have to interpret the math stuff).
This is US economic data only. It does not pull economic data from other countries. You can absolutely see how US economic data impacts other markets like the TSX, BANKNIFTY, NIFTY, DAX etc. but the indicator is only pulling US economic data.
That is it!
I hope you enjoy it and find this helpful!
Thanks everyone and safe trades as always 🚀🚀🚀
Nasan Risk Score & Postion Size Estimator** THE RISK SCORE AND POSITION SIZE WILL ONLY BE CALCUTAED ON DIALY TIMEFRAME NOT IN OTHER TIMEFRAMES.
The typically accepted generic rule for risk management is not to risk more than 1% - 2 % of the capital in any given trade. It has its own basis however it does not take into account the stocks historic & current performance and does not consider the traders performance metrics (like win rate, profit ratio).
The Nasan Risk Score & Position size calculator takes into account all the listed parameters into account and estimates a Risk %. The position size is calculated using the estimated risk % , current ATR and a dynamically adjusted ATR multiple (ATR multiple is adjusted based on true range's volatility and stocks relative performance).
It follows a series of calculations:
Unadjusted Nasan Risk Score = (Min Risk)^a + b*
Min Risk = ( 5 year weighted avg Annual Stock Return - 5 year weighted avg Annual Bench Return) / 5 year weighted avg Annual Max ATR%
Max Risk = ( 5 year weighted avg Annual Stock Return - 5 year weighted avg Annual Bench Return) / 5 year weighted avg Annual Min ATR%
The min and max return is calculated based on stocks excess return in comparison to the Benchmark return and adjusted for volatility of the stock.
When a stock underperforms the benchmark, the default is, it does not calculate a position size , however if we opt it to calculate it will use 1% for Min Risk% and 2% for Max Risk% but all the other calculations and scaling remain the same.
Rationale:
Stocks outperforming their benchmark with lower volatility (ATR%) score higher.
A stock with high returns but excessive volatility gets penalized.
This ensures volatility-adjusted performance is emphasized rather than absolute returns.
Depending on the risk preference aggressive or conservative
Aggressive Risk Scaling: a = max (m, n) and b = min (m, n)
Conservative Scaling: a = min (m, n) and b = max (m, n)
where n = traders win % /100 and m = 1 - (1/ (1+ profit ratio))
A default of 50% is used for win factor and 1.5 for profit ratio.
Aggressive risk scaling increases exposure when the strategy's strongest factor is favorable.
Conservative risk scaling ensures more stable risk levels by focusing on the weaker factor.
The Unadjusted Nasan risk is score is further refined based on a tolerance factor which is based on the stocks maximum annual drawdown and the trader's maximum draw down tolerance.
Tolerance = /100
The correction factor (Tolerance) adjusts the risk score based on downside risk. Here's how it works conceptually:
The formula calculates how much the stock's actual drawdown exceeds your acceptable limit.
If stocks maximum Annual drawdown is smaller than Trader's maximum acceptable drawdown % , this results in a positive correction factor (indicating the drawdown is within your acceptable range and increases the unadjusted score.
If stocks maximum Annual drawdown exceeds Trader's maximum acceptable drawdown %, the correction factor will decrease (indicating that the downside risk is greater than what you are comfortable with, so it will adjust the risk exposure).
Once the Risk Score (numerically equal to Risk %) The position size is calculated based on the current market conditions.
Nasan Risk Score (Risk%) = Unadjusted Nasan Risk Score * Tolerance.
Position Size = (Capital * Risk% )/ ATR-Multiplier * ATR
The ATR Multiplier is dynamically adjusted based on the stocks recent relative performance and the variability of the true range itself. It would range between 1 - 3.5.
The multiplier widens when conditions are not favorable decreasing the position size and increases position size when conditions are favorable.
This Calculation /Estimate Does not give you a very different result than the arbitrary 1% - 2%. However it does fine tune the % based on sock performance, traders performance and tolerance level.
Dynamic Trend Indicator (DTI) - VWAP FilterThe Dynamic Trend Indicator (DTI) with VWAP Filter is a trend-following indicator.
It aims to identify and follow market trends while minimizing false signals in choppy or ranging markets.
The DTI combines a dynamically adjusted Exponential Moving Average (EMA) with a daily Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) confirmation filter and a cooldown mechanism to enhance signal reliability. This indicator is particularly useful for traders on intraday timeframes (e.g., 4-hour charts) who want to align their trades with the broader daily trend while avoiding whipsaws.
Key Features:
Dynamic Trend Line:
The core of the DTI is a trend line calculated using a custom EMA that adjusts its period dynamically based on market conditions.
The period of the EMA is determined by a combination of volatility (measured via ATR) and trend strength (measured via price momentum). In strong trends, the period shortens for faster responsiveness; in weak or ranging markets, it lengthens to reduce noise.
An optional smoothing EMA can be applied to the dynamic trend line to further reduce noise, with a user-defined smoothing length.
Daily VWAP Confirmation Filter:
A daily VWAP is calculated to provide a higher-timeframe trend bias. VWAP represents the average price paid for an asset during the day, weighted by volume, and is often used as a benchmark by institutional traders.
Buy signals are only generated when the price is above the daily VWAP (indicating a bullish daily bias), and sell signals are only generated when the price is below the VWAP (indicating a bearish daily bias).
The VWAP resets at the start of each day, ensuring it reflects the current day’s trading activity.
Cooldown Mechanism:
To prevent rapid signal reversals (whipsaws), the indicator includes a cooldown period between signals. After a buy or sell signal is generated, no new signals can be generated for a user-defined number of bars (default: 5 bars).
This helps filter out noise in choppy markets, ensuring signals are spaced out and more likely to align with significant trend changes.
Visual Elements:
Trend Line: Plotted on the chart, colored green when the price is above (uptrend) and red when below (downtrend). A gray color indicates a neutral trend.
Buy/Sell Signals: Displayed as green triangles below the bar for buy signals and red triangles above the bar for sell signals.
Background Coloring: The chart background is shaded green during uptrends and red during downtrends, providing a quick visual cue of the trend direction.
Daily VWAP Line: Optionally plotted as a purple step line, allowing traders to see the VWAP level and its relationship to the price.
Alerts:
The indicator includes built-in alerts for buy and sell signals, triggered when the price crosses the trend line and satisfies the VWAP filter and cooldown conditions.
Alert messages specify whether the signal is a buy or sell and confirm that the VWAP condition was met (e.g., "DTI Buy Signal: Price crossed above trend line and VWAP").
Input Parameters
Base Length (default: 14): The base period for calculating volatility and trend strength, used to adjust the dynamic EMA period.
Volatility Multiplier (default: 1.5): Adjusts the sensitivity of the dynamic period to market volatility (via ATR).
Trend Threshold (default: 0.5): Controls the sensitivity of the dynamic period to trend strength (via price momentum).
Use Smoothing (default: true): Enables/disables smoothing of the trend line with an additional EMA.
Smoothing Length (default: 3): The period for the smoothing EMA, if enabled.
Cooldown Bars (default: 5): The minimum number of bars between consecutive signals, reducing signal frequency in choppy markets.
Show Daily VWAP (default: true): Toggles the display of the daily VWAP line on the chart.
How It Works
Dynamic Trend Line Calculation:
Volatility is measured using the Average True Range (ATR) over the base length, scaled by the volatility multiplier.
Trend strength is calculated as the absolute price momentum (change in price over the base length) divided by the volatility factor.
The dynamic EMA period is adjusted based on the trend strength: stronger trends result in a shorter period (faster response), while weaker trends result in a longer period (more stability). The period is constrained between 5 and 50 to avoid extreme values.
A custom EMA function is used to handle the dynamic period, as Pine Script’s built-in ta.ema() requires a fixed length. The trend line is optionally smoothed with a secondary EMA.
Signal Generation:
A buy signal is generated when the price crosses above the trend line, the price is above the daily VWAP, and the cooldown period has elapsed.
A sell signal is generated when the price crosses below the trend line, the price is below the daily VWAP, and the cooldown period has elapsed.
The cooldown mechanism ensures that signals are not generated too frequently, reducing false signals in ranging markets.
Daily VWAP Calculation:
The VWAP is calculated by accumulating the price-volume product (close * volume) and total volume for the day, resetting at the start of each new day.
The VWAP is then computed as the cumulative price-volume divided by the cumulative volume, providing a volume-weighted average price for the day.
Usage
Timeframe: Best suited for intraday timeframes (e.g., 1-hour, 4-hour) where the daily VWAP provides a higher-timeframe trend bias. It can also be used on daily charts with adjustments to the cooldown period.
Markets: Works well in trending markets (e.g., forex, crypto, stocks) where the dynamic trend line can capture sustained price movements. The VWAP filter helps align signals with the daily trend, making it effective for assets with clear daily biases.
Trading Strategy:
Buy: Enter a long position when a green triangle (buy signal) appears, indicating the price has crossed above the trend line and is above the daily VWAP.
Sell: Enter a short position (or exit a long) when a red triangle (sell signal) appears, indicating the price has crossed below the trend line and is below the daily VWAP.
Use the trend line and VWAP as dynamic support/resistance levels to set stop-losses or take-profit targets.
Backtesting: Use TradingView’s strategy tester to evaluate the indicator’s performance on your chosen market and timeframe, adjusting parameters like cooldown_bars and volatility_mult to optimize for profitability.
Example
On a 4-hour SOLUSDT chart, the DTI with VWAP Filter might show:
An uptrend with the price above the green trend line and above the daily VWAP, generating buy signals as the price continues to rise.
A downtrend where the price falls below the red trend line and the daily VWAP, generating sell signals that align with the bearish daily bias.
During choppy periods, the cooldown mechanism and VWAP filter reduce false signals, ensuring trades are taken only when the price aligns with the daily trend.
Limitations
Lagging Nature: Like all trend-following indicators, the DTI may lag during sharp price reversals, as the dynamic EMA needs time to adjust.
Ranging Markets: While the VWAP filter and cooldown mechanism reduce whipsaws, the indicator may still generate some false signals in strongly ranging markets. Combining it with a trend strength filter (e.g., ADX) can help.
VWAP Dependency: The effectiveness of the VWAP filter depends on the market’s respect for the daily VWAP as a support/resistance level. In markets with low volume or erratic price action, the VWAP may be less reliable.
Potential Improvements
VWAP Buffer: Add a percentage buffer around the VWAP (e.g., require the price to be 1% above/below) to further reduce noise.
Multi-Timeframe VWAP: Incorporate a weekly VWAP for additional trend confirmation on longer timeframes.
Trend Strength Filter: Add an ADX filter to ensure signals are generated only during strong trends (e.g., ADX > 25).
Session Profile AnalyzerWhat’s This Thing Do?
Hey there, trader! Meet the Session Profile Analyzer (SPA) your new go-to pal for breaking down market action within your favorite trading sessions. It’s an overlay indicator that mixes Rotation Factor (RF), Average Subperiod Range (ASPR), Volume Value Area Range (VOLVAR), and TPO Value Area Range (TPOVAR) into one tidy little toolkit. Think of it as your market vibe checker momentum, volatility, and key levels, all served up with a grin.
The Cool Stuff It Does:
Rotation Factor (RF) : Keeps tabs on whether the market’s feeling bullish, bearish, or just chilling. It’s like a mood ring for price action shows “UP ↑,” “DOWN ↓,” or “NONE ↔.”
ASPR : Averages out the range of your chosen blocks. Big swings? Tiny wiggles? This tells you the session’s energy level.
VOLVAR : Dives into volume to find where the action’s at, with a smart twist it adjusts price levels based on the session’s size and tiny timeframe moves (capped at 128 so your chart doesn’t cry).
TPOVAR : Grabs lower timeframe data to spot where price hung out the most, TPO-style. Value zones, anyone?
Dynamic Precision : No ugly decimal overload SPA matches your asset’s style (2 decimals for BTC, 5 for TRX, you get it).
How to Play With It:
Session Start/End : Pick your trading window (say, 0930-2200) and a timezone (America/New_York, or wherever you’re at).
Block Size : Set the chunk size for RF and ASPR like 30M if you’re into half-hour vibes.
Value Area Timeframe : Go micro with something like 1S for VOLVAR and TPOVAR precision.
Label : Size it (small to huge), color it (white, neon pink, whatever), and slap it where you want (start, mid, end).
How It All Works (No PhD Required):
RF : Imagine breaking your session into blocks (via Block Size). For each block, SPA checks if the high beats the last high (+1) or not (0), and if the low dips below the last low (-1) or not (0). Add those up, and boom positive RF means upward vibes, negative means downward, near zero is “meh.” Use it to catch trends or spot when the market’s napping.
ASPR : Takes those same blocks, measures high-to-low range each time, and averages them. It’s your volatility pulse big ASPR = wild ride, small ASPR = snooze fest. Great for sizing up session action.
VOLVAR : Here’s the fun part. It takes the session’s full range (high minus low), divides it by the average range of your tiny Value Area Timeframe bars (e.g., 1S), and picks a sensible number of price levels capped at 128 so it doesn’t overthink. Then it bins volume into those levels, finds the busiest price (POC), and grows a 70% value area around it. Perfect for spotting where the big players parked their cash.
TPOVAR : Grabs midpoints from those tiny timeframe bars, sorts them, and snips off the top and bottom 15% to find the 70% “value zone” where price chilled the most. Think of it as the market’s comfort zone great for support/resistance hunting.
Why You’ll Like It:
Whether you’re scalping crypto, swinging forex, or dissecting stocks, SPA’s got your back. Use RF to catch momentum shifts like jumping on an “UP ↑” trend or fading a “DOWN ↓” exhaustion. ASPR’s your secret weapon for sizing up trades: a big ASPR (say, 100 on BTC) means you can aim for juicy targets (like 1-2x ASPR) or set invalidations tight when it’s tiny (e.g., 0.001 on TRX) to dodge chop. VOLVAR and TPOVAR are your level-finders nail those key zones where price loves to bounce or break, perfect for entries, stops, or profit grabs. It’s like having a trading co-pilot who’s chill but knows their stuff.
Heads-Up:
Load enough history for those micro timeframes to shine (1S needs some bars to work with).
Keeps things light won’t bog down your chart even with decent-sized sessions.
Let’s Roll:
Slap SPA on your chart, tweak it to your style, and watch it spill the beans on your session. Happy trading, fam may your pips be plenty and your losses few!
Hurst-Based Trend Persistence w/Poisson Prediction
---
# **Hurst-Based Trend Persistence w/ Poisson Prediction**
## **Introduction**
The **Hurst-Based Trend Persistence with Poisson Prediction** is a **statistically-driven trend-following oscillator** that provides traders with **a structured approach to identifying trend strength, persistence, and potential reversals**.
This indicator combines:
- **Hurst Exponent Analysis** (to measure how persistent or mean-reverting price action is).
- **Color-Coded Trend Detection** (to highlight bullish and bearish conditions).
- **Poisson-Based Trend Reversal Probability Projection** (to anticipate when a trend is likely to end based on statistical models).
By integrating **fractal market theory (Hurst exponent)** with **Poisson probability distributions**, this indicator gives traders a **probability-weighted view of trend duration** while dynamically adapting to market volatility.
---
## **Simplified Explanation (How to Read the Indicator at a Glance)**
1. **If the oscillator line is going up → The trend is strong.**
2. **If the oscillator line is going down → The trend is weakening.**
3. **If the color shifts from red to green (or vice versa), a trend shift has occurred.**
- **Strong trends can change color without weakening** (meaning a bullish or bearish move can remain powerful even as the trend shifts).
4. **A weakening trend does NOT necessarily mean a reversal is coming.**
- The trend may slow down but continue in the same direction.
5. **A strong trend does NOT guarantee it will last.**
- Even a powerful move can **suddenly reverse**, which is why the **Poisson-based background shading** helps anticipate probabilities of change.
---
## **How to Use the Indicator**
### **1. Understanding the Rolling Hurst-Based Trend Oscillator (Main Line)**
The **oscillator line** is based on the **Hurst exponent (H)**, which quantifies whether price movements are:
- **Trending** (values above 0 → momentum-driven, persistent trends).
- **Mean-reverting** (values below 0 → price action is choppy, likely to revert to the mean).
- **Neutral (Random Walk)** (values around 0 → price behaves like a purely stochastic process).
#### **Interpreting the Oscillator:**
- **H > 0.5 → Persistent Trends:**
- Price moves tend to sustain in one direction for longer periods.
- Example: Strong uptrends in bull markets.
- **H < 0.5 → Mean-Reverting Behavior:**
- Price has a tendency to revert back to its mean.
- Example: Sideways markets or fading momentum.
- **H ≈ 0.5 → Random Walk:**
- No clear trend; price is unpredictable.
A **gray dashed horizontal line at 0** serves as a **baseline**, helping traders quickly assess whether the market is **favoring trends or mean reversion**.
---
### **2. Color-Coded Trend Signal (Visual Confirmation of Trend Shifts)**
The oscillator **changes color** based on **price slope** over the lookback period:
- **🟢 Green → Uptrend (Price Increasing)**
- Price is rising relative to the selected lookback period.
- Suggests sustained bullish pressure.
- **🔴 Red → Downtrend (Price Decreasing)**
- Price is falling relative to the selected lookback period.
- Suggests sustained bearish pressure.
#### **How to Use This in Trading**
✔ **Stay in trends until a color change occurs.**
✔ **Use color changes as confirmation for trend reversals.**
✔ **Avoid counter-trend trades when the oscillator remains strongly colored.**
---
### **3. Poisson-Based Trend Reversal Projection (Anticipating Future Shifts)**
The **shaded orange background** represents a **Poisson-based probability estimation** of when the trend is likely to reverse.
- **Darker Orange = Higher Probability of Trend Reversal**
- **Lighter Orange / No Shade = Low Probability of Immediate Reversal**
💡 **The idea behind this model:**
✔ Trends **don’t last forever**, and their duration follows **statistical patterns**.
✔ By calculating the **average historical trend duration**, the indicator predicts **how likely a trend shift is at any given time**.
✔ The **Poisson probability function** is applied to determine the **expected likelihood of a reversal as time progresses**.
---
## **Mathematical Foundations of the Indicator**
This indicator is based on **two primary statistical models**:
### **1. Hurst Exponent & Trend Persistence (Fractal Market Theory)**
- The **Hurst exponent (H)** measures **autocorrelation** in price movements.
- If past trends **persist**, H will be **above 0.5** (meaning trend-following strategies are favorable).
- If past trends tend to **mean-revert**, H will be **below 0.5** (meaning reversal strategies are more effective).
- The **Rolling Hurst Oscillator** calculates this exponent over a moving window to track real-time trend conditions.
#### **Formula Breakdown (Simplified for Traders)**
The Hurst exponent (H) is derived using the **Rescaled Range (R/S) Analysis**:
\
Where:
- **R** = **Range** (difference between max cumulative deviation and min cumulative deviation).
- **S** = **Standard deviation** of price fluctuations.
- **Lookback** = The number of periods analyzed.
---
### **2. Poisson-Based Trend Reversal Probability (Stochastic Process Modeling)**
The **Poisson process** is a **probabilistic model used for estimating time-based events**, applied here to **predict trend reversals based on past trend durations**.
#### **How It Works**
- The indicator **tracks trend durations** (the time between color changes).
- A **Poisson rate parameter (λ)** is computed as:
\
- The **probability of a reversal at any given time (t)** is estimated using:
\
- **As t increases (trend continues), the probability of reversal rises**.
- The indicator **shades the background based on this probability**, visually displaying the likelihood of a **trend shift**.
---
## **Dynamic Adaptation to Market Conditions**
✔ **Volatility-Adjusted Trend Shifts:**
- A **custom volatility calculation** dynamically adjusts the **minimum trend duration** required before a trend shift is recognized.
- **Higher volatility → Requires longer confirmation before switching trend color.**
- **Lower volatility → Allows faster trend shifts.**
✔ **Adaptive Poisson Weighting:**
- **Recent trends are weighted more heavily** using an exponential decay function:
- **Decay Factor (0.618 by default)** prioritizes **recent intervals** while still considering historical trends.
- This ensures the model adapts to changing market conditions.
---
## **Key Takeaways for Traders**
✅ **Identify Persistent Trends vs. Mean Reversion:**
- Use the oscillator line to determine whether the market favors **trend-following or counter-trend strategies**.
✅ **Visual Trend Confirmation via Color Coding:**
- **Green = Uptrend**, **Red = Downtrend**.
- Trend changes help confirm **entry and exit points**.
✅ **Anticipate Trend Reversals Using Probability Models:**
- The **Poisson projection** provides a **statistical edge** in **timing exits before trends reverse**.
✅ **Adapt to Market Volatility Automatically:**
- Dynamic **volatility scaling** ensures the indicator remains effective in **both high and low volatility environments**.
Happy trading and enjoy!
