Smart RebalanceThis script is based on the portfolio rebalancing strategy. It's designed to work with cryptocurrencies, but it can work with any market.
How portfolio rebalance works?
Let's assume your initial capital is $1000, and you want to distribute it into 4 coins. This script takes the USDT as the stable coin for the initial money, so in case you want other currency, the pairs must be with that fiat as the quote.
Following our example, you would take BTC, ETH, BNB, and FTT. After selecting the coins, it's time to choose how much allocation is on each. Let's put 25% on each. This way, $250 of our capital on each coin.
After selecting the coins and their allocation, you choose the price change ratio for rebalancing. Let's use 1%. Next, you start to watch the markets. The first thing that happens, following our example, is the BTCUSDT price moving 1% up.
That amount hit the ratio of 1% for the rebalance. Hence, you sell 1% of BTC for USDT and redistribute to the other coins, buying 0.25% of each currency to rebalance the portfolio.
Next, ETHUSDT goes 1% down, time to rebalance again. This time, you need to take 0.33% of each other coin and buy ETH, so this way, it's all divided as the chosen allocation.
Why use rebalancing?
Looks easy, right? It is, but very time demanding. Demands even more if you raise the number of coins you want to distribute. Having a system to do that automatically is a must to work efficiently. Rebalancing spreads the risk among multiple currencies. This way, you earn small when it goes up, but you lose small when it goes down.
What this script helps with portfolio rebalance?
This indicator will not buy/sell for you but will help you choose the best markets for your rebalancing. Which coin will work best in that period? Do I need to have more than 8 coins? How much must be my ratio? Those questions you can answer using this indicator.
What this script has?
Start and End dates
The script will work for a certain period. All calculations will be done in that period.
Coin Ratio %
The amount of price movement of each asset that will be used to calculate the rebalancing
Initial Capital and Broker Fee
The amount of capital to be used on the rebalancing and the broker fee you want to use the strategy. The cost will be applied on every trade, buying or selling the coins.
Assets, allocations, and colors
It's possible to select from 2 to 10 assets to be used on the portfolio. Each purchase must have the allocation %. Suppose the sum of the allocations is different from 100%. In that case, a warning message will appear on the chart instead of the statistics.
Panel and tooltips
There is a panel with a summary of the results
Set allocations automatically
There is an option to make the indicator use the daily asset volume from the day before to determine the allocation percentage of each asset. This option is better if you are unsure how much allocation you want to use on each coin.
Use this indicator as a backtest for your rebalancing strategy. The selected market on the chart will not affect the calculation on this indicator, but the time frame will. The higher the time frame, the higher the coin ratio % must be.
About the code
The code is written to use arrays to store the values of each asset, making the calculations on each candle inside the time range. The for-loops are used to reduce the code length and make it easy to change the analysis of all assets. Finally, the script has some comments on the code.
Cari dalam skrip untuk "demand"
Monte Carlo Range Forecast [DW]This is an experimental study designed to forecast the range of price movement from a specified starting point using a Monte Carlo simulation.
Monte Carlo experiments are a broad class of computational algorithms that utilize random sampling to derive real world numerical results.
These types of algorithms have a number of applications in numerous fields of study including physics, engineering, behavioral sciences, climate forecasting, computer graphics, gaming AI, mathematics, and finance.
Although the applications vary, there is a typical process behind the majority of Monte Carlo methods:
-> First, a distribution of possible inputs is defined.
-> Next, values are generated randomly from the distribution.
-> The values are then fed through some form of deterministic algorithm.
-> And lastly, the results are aggregated over some number of iterations.
In this study, the Monte Carlo process used generates a distribution of aggregate pseudorandom linear price returns summed over a user defined period, then plots standard deviations of the outcomes from the mean outcome generate forecast regions.
The pseudorandom process used in this script relies on a modified Wichmann-Hill pseudorandom number generator (PRNG) algorithm.
Wichmann-Hill is a hybrid generator that uses three linear congruential generators (LCGs) with different prime moduli.
Each LCG within the generator produces an independent, uniformly distributed number between 0 and 1.
The three generated values are then summed and modulo 1 is taken to deliver the final uniformly distributed output.
Because of its long cycle length, Wichmann-Hill is a fantastic generator to use on TV since it's extremely unlikely that you'll ever see a cycle repeat.
The resulting pseudorandom output from this generator has a minimum repetition cycle length of 6,953,607,871,644.
Fun fact: Wichmann-Hill is a widely used PRNG in various software applications. For example, Excel 2003 and later uses this algorithm in its RAND function, and it was the default generator in Python up to v2.2.
The generation algorithm in this script takes the Wichmann-Hill algorithm, and uses a multi-stage transformation process to generate the results.
First, a parent seed is selected. This can either be a fixed value, or a dynamic value.
The dynamic parent value is produced by taking advantage of Pine's timenow variable behavior. It produces a variable parent seed by using a frozen ratio of timenow/time.
Because timenow always reflects the current real time when frozen and the time variable reflects the chart's beginning time when frozen, the ratio of these values produces a new number every time the cache updates.
After a parent seed is selected, its value is then fed through a uniformly distributed seed array generator, which generates multiple arrays of pseudorandom "children" seeds.
The seeds produced in this step are then fed through the main generators to produce arrays of pseudorandom simulated outcomes, and a pseudorandom series to compare with the real series.
The main generators within this script are designed to (at least somewhat) model the stochastic nature of financial time series data.
The first step in this process is to transform the uniform outputs of the Wichmann-Hill into outputs that are normally distributed.
In this script, the transformation is done using an estimate of the normal distribution quantile function.
Quantile functions, otherwise known as percent-point or inverse cumulative distribution functions, specify the value of a random variable such that the probability of the variable being within the value's boundary equals the input probability.
The quantile equation for a normal probability distribution is μ + σ(√2)erf^-1(2(p - 0.5)) where μ is the mean of the distribution, σ is the standard deviation, erf^-1 is the inverse Gauss error function, and p is the probability.
Because erf^-1() does not have a simple, closed form interpretation, it must be approximated.
To keep things lightweight in this approximation, I used a truncated Maclaurin Series expansion for this function with precomputed coefficients and rolled out operations to avoid nested looping.
This method provides a decent approximation of the error function without completely breaking floating point limits or sucking up runtime memory.
Note that there are plenty of more robust techniques to approximate this function, but their memory needs very. I chose this method specifically because of runtime favorability.
To generate a pseudorandom approximately normally distributed variable, the uniformly distributed variable from the Wichmann-Hill algorithm is used as the input probability for the quantile estimator.
Now from here, we get a pretty decent output that could be used itself in the simulation process. Many Monte Carlo simulations and random price generators utilize a normal variable.
However, if you compare the outputs of this normal variable with the actual returns of the real time series, you'll find that the variability in shocks (random changes) doesn't quite behave like it does in real data.
This is because most real financial time series data is more complex. Its distribution may be approximately normal at times, but the variability of its distribution changes over time due to various underlying factors.
In light of this, I believe that returns behave more like a convoluted product distribution rather than just a raw normal.
So the next step to get our procedurally generated returns to more closely emulate the behavior of real returns is to introduce more complexity into our model.
Through experimentation, I've found that a return series more closely emulating real returns can be generated in a three step process:
-> First, generate multiple independent, normally distributed variables simultaneously.
-> Next, apply pseudorandom weighting to each variable ranging from -1 to 1, or some limits within those bounds. This modulates each series to provide more variability in the shocks by producing product distributions.
-> Lastly, add the results together to generate the final pseudorandom output with a convoluted distribution. This adds variable amounts of constructive and destructive interference to produce a more "natural" looking output.
In this script, I use three independent normally distributed variables multiplied by uniform product distributed variables.
The first variable is generated by multiplying a normal variable by one uniformly distributed variable. This produces a bit more tailedness (kurtosis) than a normal distribution, but nothing too extreme.
The second variable is generated by multiplying a normal variable by two uniformly distributed variables. This produces moderately greater tails in the distribution.
The third variable is generated by multiplying a normal variable by three uniformly distributed variables. This produces a distribution with heavier tails.
For additional control of the output distributions, the uniform product distributions are given optional limits.
These limits control the boundaries for the absolute value of the uniform product variables, which affects the tails. In other words, they limit the weighting applied to the normally distributed variables in this transformation.
All three sets are then multiplied by user defined amplitude factors to adjust presence, then added together to produce our final pseudorandom return series with a convoluted product distribution.
Once we have the final, more "natural" looking pseudorandom series, the values are recursively summed over the forecast period to generate a simulated result.
This process of generation, weighting, addition, and summation is repeated over the user defined number of simulations with different seeds generated from the parent to produce our array of initial simulated outcomes.
After the initial simulation array is generated, the max, min, mean and standard deviation of this array are calculated, and the values are stored in holding arrays on each iteration to be called upon later.
Reference difference series and price values are also stored in holding arrays to be used in our comparison plots.
In this script, I use a linear model with simple returns rather than compounding log returns to generate the output.
The reason for this is that in generating outputs this way, we're able to run our simulations recursively from the beginning of the chart, then apply scaling and anchoring post-process.
This allows a greater conservation of runtime memory than the alternative, making it more suitable for doing longer forecasts with heavier amounts of simulations in TV's runtime environment.
From our starting time, the previous bar's price, volatility, and optional drift (expected return) are factored into our holding arrays to generate the final forecast parameters.
After these parameters are computed, the range forecast is produced.
The basis value for the ranges is the mean outcome of the simulations that were run.
Then, quarter standard deviations of the simulated outcomes are added to and subtracted from the basis up to 3σ to generate the forecast ranges.
All of these values are plotted and colorized based on their theoretical probability density. The most likely areas are the warmest colors, and least likely areas are the coolest colors.
An information panel is also displayed at the starting time which shows the starting time and price, forecast type, parent seed value, simulations run, forecast bars, total drift, mean, standard deviation, max outcome, min outcome, and bars remaining.
The interesting thing about simulated outcomes is that although the probability distribution of each simulation is not normal, the distribution of different outcomes converges to a normal one with enough steps.
In light of this, the probability density of outcomes is highest near the initial value + total drift, and decreases the further away from this point you go.
This makes logical sense since the central path is the easiest one to travel.
Given the ever changing state of markets, I find this tool to be best suited for shorter term forecasts.
However, if the movements of price are expected to remain relatively stable, longer term forecasts may be equally as valid.
There are many possible ways for users to apply this tool to their analysis setups. For example, the forecast ranges may be used as a guide to help users set risk targets.
Or, the generated levels could be used in conjunction with other indicators for meaningful confluence signals.
More advanced users could even extrapolate the functions used within this script for various purposes, such as generating pseudorandom data to test systems on, perform integration and approximations, etc.
These are just a few examples of potential uses of this script. How you choose to use it to benefit your trading, analysis, and coding is entirely up to you.
If nothing else, I think this is a pretty neat script simply for the novelty of it.
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How To Use:
When you first add the script to your chart, you will be prompted to confirm the starting date and time, number of bars to forecast, number of simulations to run, and whether to include drift assumption.
You will also be prompted to confirm the forecast type. There are two types to choose from:
-> End Result - This uses the values from the end of the simulation throughout the forecast interval.
-> Developing - This uses the values that develop from bar to bar, providing a real-time outlook.
You can always update these settings after confirmation as well.
Once these inputs are confirmed, the script will boot up and automatically generate the forecast in a separate pane.
Note that if there is no bar of data at the time you wish to start the forecast, the script will automatically detect use the next available bar after the specified start time.
From here, you can now control the rest of the settings.
The "Seeding Settings" section controls the initial seed value used to generate the children that produce the simulations.
In this section, you can control whether the seed is a fixed value, or a dynamic one.
Since selecting the dynamic parent option will change the seed value every time you change the settings or refresh your chart, there is a "Regenerate" input built into the script.
This input is a dummy input that isn't connected to any of the calculations. The purpose of this input is to force an update of the dynamic parent without affecting the generator or forecast settings.
Note that because we're running a limited number of simulations, different parent seeds will typically yield slightly different forecast ranges.
When using a small number of simulations, you will likely see a higher amount of variance between differently seeded results because smaller numbers of sampled simulations yield a heavier bias.
The more simulations you run, the smaller this variance will become since the outcomes become more convergent toward the same distribution, so the differences between differently seeded forecasts will become more marginal.
When using a dynamic parent, pay attention to the dispersion of ranges.
When you find a set of ranges that is dispersed how you like with your configuration, set your fixed parent value to the parent seed that shows in the info panel.
This will allow you to replicate that dispersion behavior again in the future.
An important thing to note when settings alerts on the plotted levels, or using them as components for signals in other scripts, is to decide on a fixed value for your parent seed to avoid minor repainting due to seed changes.
When the parent seed is fixed, no repainting occurs.
The "Amplitude Settings" section controls the amplitude coefficients for the three differently tailed generators.
These amplitude factors will change the difference series output for each simulation by controlling how aggressively each series moves.
When "Adjust Amplitude Coefficients" is disabled, all three coefficients are set to 1.
Note that if you expect volatility to significantly diverge from its historical values over the forecast interval, try experimenting with these factors to match your anticipation.
The "Weighting Settings" section controls the weighting boundaries for the three generators.
These weighting limits affect how tailed the distributions in each generator are, which in turn affects the final series outputs.
The maximum absolute value range for the weights is . When "Limit Generator Weights" is disabled, this is the range that is automatically used.
The last set of inputs is the "Display Settings", where you can control the visual outputs.
From here, you can select to display either "Forecast" or "Difference Comparison" via the "Output Display Type" dropdown tab.
"Forecast" is the type displayed by default. This plots the end result or developing forecast ranges.
There is an option with this display type to show the developing extremes of the simulations. This option is enabled by default.
There's also an option with this display type to show one of the simulated price series from the set alongside actual prices.
This allows you to visually compare simulated prices alongside the real prices.
"Difference Comparison" allows you to visually compare a synthetic difference series from the set alongside the actual difference series.
This display method is primarily useful for visually tuning the amplitude and weighting settings of the generators.
There are also info panel settings on the bottom, which allow you to control size, colors, and date format for the panel.
It's all pretty simple to use once you get the hang of it. So play around with the settings and see what kinds of forecasts you can generate!
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ADDITIONAL NOTES & DISCLAIMERS
Although I've done a number of things within this script to keep runtime demands as low as possible, the fact remains that this script is fairly computationally heavy.
Because of this, you may get random timeouts when using this script.
This could be due to either random drops in available runtime on the server, using too many simulations, or running the simulations over too many bars.
If it's just a random drop in runtime on the server, hide and unhide the script, re-add it to the chart, or simply refresh the page.
If the timeout persists after trying this, then you'll need to adjust your settings to a less demanding configuration.
Please note that no specific claims are being made in regards to this script's predictive accuracy.
It must be understood that this model is based on randomized price generation with assumed constant drift and dispersion from historical data before the starting point.
Models like these not consider the real world factors that may influence price movement (economic changes, seasonality, macro-trends, instrument hype, etc.), nor the changes in sample distribution that may occur.
In light of this, it's perfectly possible for price data to exceed even the most extreme simulated outcomes.
The future is uncertain, and becomes increasingly uncertain with each passing point in time.
Predictive models of any type can vary significantly in performance at any point in time, and nobody can guarantee any specific type of future performance.
When using forecasts in making decisions, DO NOT treat them as any form of guarantee that values will fall within the predicted range.
When basing your trading decisions on any trading methodology or utility, predictive or not, you do so at your own risk.
No guarantee is being issued regarding the accuracy of this forecast model.
Forecasting is very far from an exact science, and the results from any forecast are designed to be interpreted as potential outcomes rather than anything concrete.
With that being said, when applied prudently and treated as "general case scenarios", forecast models like these may very well be potentially beneficial tools to have in the arsenal.
RISK-OFF.RISK.ON-ppxdf.v3======================================= RISK-OFF & RISK ON INDEX ================================================
1. Stock Price Momentum: Measuring the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ( S&P 500 ) versus its 125-day moving average (MA)
2. Stock Price Strength: Calculating the number of stocks hitting 52-week highs versus those hitting 52-week lows on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
3. Stock Price Breadth: Analyzing trading volumes in rising stocks against declining stocks
4. Put and Call Options: How much do put options lag behind call options, signifying greed, or surpass them, indicating fear
5. Junk Bond Demand: Gauging appetite for higher risk strategies by measuring the spread between yields on investment-grade bonds and junk bonds
6. Market Volatility: CNN measures the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index ( VIX ), concentrating on a 50-day MA
7. Safe Haven Demand: The difference in returns for stocks versus treasuries
Each of these seven indicators is measured on a scale from 0 to 100, with the index being computed by taking an equal-weighted average of each of them.
A reading of 50 is deemed NEUTRAL.
Above 50 signals the market with RISK-ON. (GREED)
Below 50, Signals the market with RISK-OFF (FEAR)
8
DZ/SZ - HFM by MamaRight-Empty Wick Zones (MTF) draws Supply/Demand zones from the remaining wick of adjacent opposite-color candles (Classic & Non-classic rules). Zones extend right only through empty space and stop at the first touching candle. Multi-TF scan (H1/H4/1D/1W/1M) with TF-colored boxes and labels showing Demand/Supply + H/L.
Demand (red → green, adjacent):
Classic: if the red candle’s lower wick is longer than the green’s → zone = (the “excess” red wick).
Non-classic: if the red’s lower wick is shorter or equal → zone = (use the longer green wick).
Supply (green → red, adjacent):
Classic: if the green candle’s upper wick is longer than the red’s → zone = (the “excess” green wick).
Non-classic: if the green’s upper wick is shorter or equal → zone = (use the longer red wick).
After a zone is created, the box extends right and terminates at the very first bar whose price range (body or wick) overlaps the zone → ensures the plotted area is genuinely right-empty.
What you see
Zone boxes with distinct colors per timeframe (e.g., H1/H4/1D/1W/1M).
Optional labels on each box: H4 Demand / H1 Supply, plus H/L prices of the zone.
Labels can sit at the left edge or follow the right edge of the box.
Inputs
Toggles: Demand Classic / Demand Non-classic / Supply Classic / Supply Non-classic.
Timeframes to scan: H1, H4, 1D, 1W, 1M.
Min zone thickness (price): minimum height of a zone (in price units).
Initial right extension (bars): initial box length; the script auto-cuts at the first touch.
Show labels / place labels at the right edge.
How to use (suggestion)
Use higher TF (e.g., 1D) for bias and lower TFs (H1/H4) for execution zones.
Keep only the rule set (Classic/Non-classic) that matches your playbook.
Treat zones as areas of interest—wait for your own confirmations (e.g., swing rejection, wick re-entry, structure shift, volume cues) and manage risk accordingly.
Notes
Because zones are sourced from higher TFs via request.security, the drawing can update intrabar; a zone is final once the source TF bar closes.
Min zone thickness uses price units (e.g., on XAUUSD, 1.00 ≈ $1).
This tool is an analytical aid, not financial advice or an entry/exit signal.
อินดิเคเตอร์ DZ/SZ - HFM by Mama ใช้หา Demand/Supply zone จาก “ไส้ที่เหลือ” ของ คู่แท่งสีตรงข้ามที่ติดกัน แล้ววาดเป็นกล่อง ยืดไปทางขวาเฉพาะช่วงที่ว่าง และ หยุดตรงแท่งแรกที่เข้ามาแตะโซน รองรับหลาย Timeframe (H1/H4/1D/1W/1M) พร้อมสีแยก TF และป้ายกำกับ Demand/Supply + H/L ของโซน
รายละเอียดการทำงาน (ไทย)
แนวคิดหลัก
Demand: เลือกคู่ แดง→เขียว ที่ “ติดกัน”
Classic: ถ้า ไส้ล่าง ของแท่งแดงยาวกว่าแท่งเขียว → โซน =
Non-classic: ถ้า ไส้ล่าง ของแท่งแดงสั้นกว่าหรือเท่าเขียว → โซน =
Supply: เลือกคู่ เขียว→แดง ที่ “ติดกัน”
Classic: ถ้า ไส้บน ของแท่งเขียวยาวกว่าแท่งแดง → โซน =
Non-classic: ถ้า ไส้บน ของแท่งเขียวสั้นกว่าหรือเท่าแดง → โซน =
เมื่อสร้างโซนแล้ว กล่องจะ ยืดทางขวา ไปเรื่อย ๆ และ หยุดทันทีเมื่อมีแท่งแรกที่ช่วงราคา (ไส้หรือตัวแท่ง) ทับซ้อนกับโซน ⇒ ได้ “พื้นที่ขวาว่าง” ตามโจทย์
สิ่งที่แสดงบนกราฟ
กล่องโซนสีตาม Timeframe (เช่น H1=ฟ้า, H4=เขียว, 1D=ส้ม, 1W=ม่วง, 1M=เทา)
Label ที่มุมกล่อง: H4 Demand / H1 Supply + ราคาของ High/Low ของโซน
(เลือกวาง ซ้าย หรือ ขอบขวา ของกล่องได้ในตั้งค่า)
ตัวเลือกสำคัญใน Settings
เปิด/ปิด: Demand Classic / Demand Non-classic / Supply Classic / Supply Non-classic
เลือก TF ที่จะสแกน: H1, H4, 1D, 1W, 1M
Min zone thickness (price): กำหนด “ความหนา” ขั้นต่ำของโซน (หน่วยเป็นราคา เช่น XAUUSD = ดอลลาร์)
Initial right extension (bars): ความยาวยืดเริ่มต้น (อินดี้จะตัดให้สั้นลงเองเมื่อมีแท่งมาแตะ)
แสดง Label บนโซน และ วาง Label ที่ขอบขวากล่อง
วิธีใช้แนะนำ
เลือก TF ที่ต้องการ (เช่น ให้ H1/H4 เป็นโซนเทรดละเอียด และ 1D ใช้กรองทิศ)
เปิดเฉพาะโหมด (Classic/Non-classic) ที่ตรงกับแนวคิดการเทรดของคุณ
ใช้โซนเป็นบริเวณ “สนใจ” แล้วรอพฤติกรรมราคา/สัญญาณยืนยันเสริม (เช่น สวิงกลับ, rejection wick, โวลลุ่ม, หรือโครงสร้างจบคลื่น)
หมายเหตุสำคัญ
อินดี้ใช้ข้อมูลข้าม TF; สัญญาณจาก TF สูง อาจเปลี่ยนระหว่างแท่งยังไม่ปิด (ลักษณะ intrabar update) โซนจะ “นิ่ง” เมื่อแท่งของ TF ต้นทาง ปิดแล้ว
หน่วยของ Min zone thickness เป็น หน่วยราคา ไม่ใช่ pips (XAUUSD: 1.00 = $1)
อินดี้ไม่ได้ให้สัญญาณเข้า–ออกอัตโนมัติ ควรใช้ร่วมกับแผนเทรดและการจัดการความเสี่ยง
PRO SMC DASHBOARDPRO SMC DASHBOARD - PRO LEVEL
Advanced Supply & Demand / SMC dashboard for scalping and intraday:
Multi-Timeframe Trend: Visualizes trend direction for M1, M5, M15, H1, H4.
HTF Supply/Demand: Shows closest high time frame (HTF) supply/demand zone and distance (in pips).
Smart “Flip” & Liquidity Signals: Flip and Liquidity Sweep arrows/signals are shown only when truly significant:
Near HTF Supply/Demand zone
And confirmed by volume spike or high confluence score
Momentum & Bias: Real-time momentum (RSI M1), H1 bias and fakeout detection.
Confluence Score: Objective score (out of 7) for trade confidence.
Volume Spike, Divergence, BOS: Includes volume spikes, RSI divergence (M1), and Break of Structure (BOS) for both M15 & H1.
Ultra-clean chart: Only valid signals/alerts shown; no spam or visual clutter.
Full dashboard with all signals and context, always visible bottom-right.
Best used for:
Forex, Gold/Silver, US indices, and crypto
Scalping/intraday with fast, clear decisions based on multi-factor SMC logic
Usage:
Add to your chart, monitor the dashboard for valid setups, and trade only when multiple factors align for high-probability entries.
How to Use the PRO SMC DASHBOARD
1. Add the Script to Your Chart:
Apply the indicator to your favorite Forex, Gold, crypto, or indices chart (best on M1, M5, or M15 for entries).
2. Read the Dashboard (Bottom Right):
The dashboard shows real-time information from multiple timeframes and key SMC filters, including:
Trend (M1, M5, M15, H1, H4):
Arrows show up (↑) or down (↓) trend for each timeframe, based on EMA.
Momentum (RSI M1):
Shows “Strong Up,” “Strong Down,” or “Neutral” plus the current RSI value.
RSI (H1):
Higher timeframe momentum confirmation.
ATR State:
Indicates current volatility (High, Normal, Low).
Session:
Detects if the market is in London, NY, or Asia session (based on UTC).
HTF S/D Zone:
Shows the nearest high timeframe Supply or Demand zone, its timeframe (M15, H1, H4), and exact pip distance.
Fakeout (last 3):
Detects recent false breakouts—if there are multiple fakeouts, potential for reversal is higher.
FVG (Fair Value Gap):
Indicates direction and distance to the nearest FVG (Above/Below).
Bias:
“Strong Buy,” “Strong Sell,” or “Neutral”—multi-timeframe, momentum, and volatility filtered.
Inducement:
Alerts for possible “stop hunt” or liquidity grab before reversal.
BOS (Break of Structure):
Recent or live breaks of market structure (for both M15 & H1).
Liquidity Sweep:
Shows if price just swept a key high/low and then reversed (often key reversal point).
Confluence Score (0-7):
Higher score means more factors align—look for 5+ for strong setups.
Volume Spike:
“YES” appears if the current volume is significantly above average—big players are active!
RSI Divergence:
Bullish or bearish divergence on M1—signals early reversal risk.
Momentum Flip:
“UP” or “DN” appears if RSI M1 crosses the 50 line, confirmed by location and other filters.
Chart Signals (Arrows & Markers):
Flip arrows (up/down) and Liquidity markers only appear when price is at/near a key Supply/Demand zone and confirmed by either a volume spike or strong confluence.
No signal spam:
If you see an arrow or LIQ tag, it’s a truly significant moment!
Suggested Trading Workflow:
Scan the Dashboard:
Is the multi-timeframe trend aligned?
Are you near a major Supply or Demand zone?
Is the Confluence Score high (5 or more)?
Check for Signals:
Is there a Flip or LIQ marker near a Supply/Demand zone?
Is volume spiking or a fakeout just occurred?
Look for Reversal or Continuation:
If there’s a Flip at Demand (with high confluence), consider a long setup.
If there’s a LIQ sweep + flip + volume at Supply, consider a short.
Manage Risk:
Don’t chase every signal.
Confirm with your entry criteria and preferred session timing.
Pro Tips:
Highest confidence trades:
When dashboard signals and chart arrows/markers agree, especially with high confluence and volume spike.
Adapt pip distance filter:
Dashboard is tuned for FX and gold; for other assets, adjust pip-size filter if needed.
Use alerts (if enabled):
Set up custom TradingView alerts for “Flip” or “Liquidity” signals for auto-notifications.
Designed to help you make professional, objective decisions—without chart clutter or second-guessing!
CYCLE BY RiotWolftradingDescription of the "CYCLE" Indicator
The "CYCLE" indicator is a custom Pine Script v5 script for TradingView that visualizes cyclic patterns in price action, dividing the trading day into specific sessions and 90-minute quarters (Q1-Q4). It is designed to identify and display market phases (Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution, and Continuation/Reversal) along with key support and resistance levels within those sessions. Additionally, it allows customization of boxes, lines, labels, and colors to suit user preferences.
Main Features
Cycle Phases:
Accumulation (1900-0100): Represents the phase where large operators accumulate positions.
Manipulation (0100-0700): Identifies potential manipulative moves to mislead retail traders.
Distribution (0700-1300): The phase where large operators distribute their positions.
Continuation/Reversal (1300-1900): Indicates whether the price continues the trend or reverses.
90-Minute Quarters (Q1-Q4):
Divides each 6-hour cycle (360 minutes) into four 90-minute quarters (Q1: 00:00-01:30, Q2: 01:30-03:00, Q3: 03:00-04:30, Q4: 04:30-06:00 UTC).
Each quarter is displayed with a colored box (Q1: light purple, Q2: light blue, Q3: light gray, Q4: light pink) and labels (defaulted to black).
Support and Resistance Visualization:
Draws boxes or lines (based on settings) showing the high and low levels of each session.
Optionally displays accumulated volume at the highs and lows within the boxes.
Daily Lines and Last 3 Boxes:
How to Use the Indicator
Step 1: Add the Indicator to TradingView
Open TradingView and select the chart where you want to apply the indicator (e.g., UMG9OOR on a 5-minute timeframe, as shown in the screenshot).
Go to the Pine Editor (at the bottom of the TradingView interface).
Copy and paste the provided code.
Click Compile and then Add to Chart.
Step 2: Configure the Indicator
Click on the indicator name on the chart ("CYCLE") and select Settings (or double-click the name).
Adjust the options based on your needs:
Cycle Phases: Enable/disable phases (Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution, Continuation/Reversal) and adjust their time slots if needed.
90-Minute Quarters: Enable/disable quarters (Q1-Q4).
Step 3: Interpret the Indicator
Identify Cycle Phases:
Observe the red boxes indicating the phases (Accumulation, Manipulation, etc.).
The high and low levels within each phase are potential support/resistance zones.
If volume is enabled, pay attention to the accumulated volume at highs and lows, as it may indicate the strength of those levels.
Use the 90-Minute Quarters (Q1-Q4):
The colored boxes (Q1-Q4) divide the day into 90-minute segments.
Each quarter shows the price range (high and low) during that period.
Use these boxes to identify price patterns within each quarter, such as breakouts or consolidations.
The labels (Q1, Q2, etc.) help you track time and anticipate potential moves in the next quarter.
Analyze Support and Resistance:
The high and low levels of each phase/quarter act as support and resistance.
Daily lines (if enabled) show key levels from the previous day, useful for planning entries/exits.
The "last 3 boxes below price" (if enabled) highlight potential support levels the price might target.
Avoid Manipulation:
During the Manipulation phase (0100-0700), be cautious of sharp moves or false breakouts.
Use the high/low levels of this phase to identify potential traps (as explained in your first question about manipulation candles).
Step 4: Trading Strategy
Entries and Exits:
Support/Resistance: Use the high/low levels of phases and quarters to set entry or exit points.
For example, if the price bounces off a Q1 support level, consider a buy.
Breakouts: If the price breaks a high/low of a quarter (e.g., Q2), wait for confirmation to enter in the direction of the breakout.
Volume: If accumulated volume is high near a key level, that level may be more significant.
Risk Management:
Place stop-loss orders below lows (for buys) or above highs (for sells) identified by the indicator.
Avoid trading during the Manipulation phase unless you have a specific strategy to handle false breakouts.
Time Context:
Use the quarters (Q1-Q4) to plan your trades based on time. For example, if Q3 is typically volatile in your market, prepare for larger moves between 03:00-04:30 UTC.
Step 5: Adjustments and Testing
Test on Different Timeframes: The indicator is set for a 5-minute timeframe (as in the screenshot), but you can test it on other timeframes (e.g., 1-minute, 15-minute) by adjusting the time slots if needed.
Adjust Colors and Styles: If the default colors are not visible on your chart, change them for better clarity.
---
📌 1. **Accumulation: Strong Institutional Activity**
- During the **accumulation phase, we see **high volume: 82.773K, which suggests strong buying interest**, likely from institutional players.
- This sets the base for the following upward move in price.
---
📌 2. **Manipulation: False Breakout with Lower Volume**
- Later, there's a manipulation phase where price breaks above previous highs, but the volume (71.814K) is **lower than during accumulation**.
- This implies that buyers are not as aggressive as before—no real demandbehind the breakout.
- It’s likely a bull trap, where smart money is selling into the breakout to exit their positions.
---
### 📌 3. Distribution: Weakness and Lack of Demand
- The market enters a distribution phase, and volume drops even further (only 7.914K).
- Price struggles to go higher, and you start seeing rejections at the top.
- This shows that demand is drying up, and smart money is offloading positions**—not accumulating anymore.
---
### 💡 Why Take the Short Here?
- Volume is not increasing with new highs—showing weak demand**.
- The manipulation volume is weaker than the accumulation volume, confirming the breakout was likely false.
- Structure starts to break down (Q levels falling), which confirms weakness.
- This creates a high-probability short setup:
- **Entry:** after confirmation of distribution and structural breakdown.
- **Stop loss:** above the manipulation high.
- **Target:** down toward previous lows or value zones.
---
### ✅ Conclusion
Since the manipulation volume failed to exceed the accumulation volume, the breakout lacked real strength. Combined with decreasing volume in the distribution phase, this indicates fading demand and supply taking control—which justifies entering a short position.
StupidTrader Money GlitchStupidTrader Money Glitch
This indicator identifies high-probability buy setups by combining key technical concepts. It detects a reclaimed demand zone (a significant low that was broken and reclaimed), confirms bullish market structure breaks (MSB), ensures the price is above the 9 and 21 EMAs, and looks for volume spikes or trends.
Key Features:
Plots a demand zone (blue box) based on a reclaimed low.
Signals long entries (green triangles) when conditions align: reclaimed demand zone, MSB, price above EMAs, and volume confirmation.
Includes EMA 9 (blue) and EMA 21 (aqua) for trend confirmation.
How to Use:
Add the indicator to your chart and look for green triangles below candles as buy signals. Ensure the price interacts with the demand zone, breaks market structure, and shows volume confirmation. Works best on daily or higher timeframes for assets like ONDO, BTC, and more.
Settings:
Short EMA Length: 9
Mid EMA Length: 21
Pivot Lookback for Demand Zone: 5
Zone Lookback for Demand: 90
Volume Lookback: 20
JJ Psychological Levels (125 Increments)Psychological Levels Indicator
Description:
The Psychological Levels Indicator is a versatile tool designed for traders to identify key price levels that often act as support or resistance zones in the market. These levels are plotted at regular intervals, customizable by the user, starting from a base price level. This is particularly useful for spotting psychological price points that traders and investors frequently monitor.
Key Features:
1.Dynamic Psychological Levels:
- The script calculates and displays horizontal lines at price levels separated by customizable increments (default: 125 points).
- These levels are dynamically adjusted to the visible range of the chart.
2. Customizable Inputs:
- Starting Level: Set the base level from which increments are calculated (e.g., 0 or 1000).
- Step Size: Define the interval between levels (e.g., 125 for indices like Bank NIFTY).
3. Visual Representation:
- Horizontal lines are drawn at each psychological level, helping traders quickly identify key zones.
- Labels are placed next to each level, displaying the corresponding price for easy reference.
4. Application Across Instruments:
- This indicator works seamlessly with various asset classes, including stocks, indices, forex, and cryptocurrencies.
How to Use:
1.Identify Key Price Zones:
- Use the plotted psychological levels to spot areas where price action is likely to react.
- Levels such as 1125, 1250, and 1375 (for a step size of 125) are visually highlighted.
2. Plan Trades Around Key Levels:
- These levels can act as support/resistance or breakout points, providing opportunities for entry, exit, and stop-loss placement.
3. Customizable Settings:
- Adjust the starting level and step size to tailor the indicator to your trading instrument or strategy.
Why Psychological Levels Matter:
Psychological levels are widely followed by traders and often coincide with key market turning points due to their significance in human behavior and market psychology. They are frequently used by institutional traders, making them valuable reference points for intraday and swing trading.
Custom Settings:
- **Starting Level:** Default: `0`
- **Step Size:** Default: `125`
Disclaimer:
This indicator is a technical analysis tool and is not intended to provide financial advice. Always combine it with other indicators and perform your due diligence before making trading decisions.
Multiple Naked LevelsPURPOSE OF THE INDICATOR
This indicator autogenerates and displays naked levels and gaps of multiple types collected into one simple and easy to use indicator.
VALUE PROPOSITION OF THE INDICATOR AND HOW IT IS ORIGINAL AND USEFUL
1) CONVENIENCE : The purpose of this indicator is to offer traders with one coherent and robust indicator providing useful, valuable, and often used levels - in one place.
2) CLUSTERS OF CONFLUENCES : With this indicator it is easy to identify levels and zones on the chart with multiple confluences increasing the likelihood of a potential reversal zone.
THE TYPES OF LEVELS AND GAPS INCLUDED IN THE INDICATOR
The types of levels include the following:
1) PIVOT levels (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as: dnPIV, wnPIV, mnPIV.
2) POC (Point of Control) levels (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as: dnPoC, wnPoC, mnPoC.
3) VAH/VAL STD 1 levels (Value Area High/Low with 1 std) (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as: dnVAH1/dnVAL1, wnVAH1/wnVAL1, mnVAH1/mnVAL1
4) VAH/VAL STD 2 levels (Value Area High/Low with 2 std) (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as: dnVAH2/dnVAL2, wnVAH2/wnVAL2, mnVAH1/mnVAL2
5) FAIR VALUE GAPS (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as: dnFVG, wnFVG, mnFVG.
6) CME GAPS (Daily) depicted in the chart as: dnCME.
7) EQUILIBRIUM levels (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as dnEQ, wnEQ, mnEQ.
HOW-TO ACTIVATE LEVEL TYPES AND TIMEFRAMES AND HOW-TO USE THE INDICATOR
You can simply choose which of the levels to be activated and displayed by clicking on the desired radio button in the settings menu.
You can locate the settings menu by clicking into the Object Tree window, left-click on the Multiple Naked Levels and select Settings.
You will then get a menu of different level types and timeframes. Click the checkboxes for the level types and timeframes that you want to display on the chart.
You can then go into the chart and check out which naked levels that have appeared. You can then use those levels as part of your technical analysis.
The levels displayed on the chart can serve as additional confluences or as part of your overall technical analysis and indicators.
In order to back-test the impact of the different naked levels you can also enable tapped levels to be depicted on the chart. Do this by toggling the 'Show tapped levels' checkbox.
Keep in mind however that Trading View can not shom more than 500 lines and text boxes so the indocator will not be able to give you the complete history back to the start for long duration assets.
In order to clean up the charts a little bit there are two additional settings that can be used in the Settings menu:
- Selecting the price range (%) from the current price to be included in the chart. The default is 25%. That means that all levels below or above 20% will not be displayed. You can set this level yourself from 0 up to 100%.
- Selecting the minimum gap size to include on the chart. The default is 1%. That means that all gaps/ranges below 1% in price difference will not be displayed on the chart. You can set the minimum gap size yourself.
BASIC DESCRIPTION OF THE INNER WORKINGS OF THE INDICTATOR
The way the indicator works is that it calculates and identifies all levels from the list of levels type and timeframes above. The indicator then adds this level to a list of untapped levels.
Then for each bar after, it checks if the level has been tapped. If the level has been tapped or a gap/range completely filled, this level is removed from the list so that the levels displayed in the end are only naked/untapped levels.
Below is a descrition of each of the level types and how it is caluclated (algorithm):
PIVOT
Daily, Weekly and Monthly levels in trading refer to significant price points that traders monitor within the context of a single trading day. These levels can provide insights into market behavior and help traders make informed decisions regarding entry and exit points.
Traders often use D/W/M levels to set entry and exit points for trades. For example, entering long positions near support (daily close) or selling near resistance (daily close).
Daily levels are used to set stop-loss orders. Placing stops just below the daily close for long positions or above the daily close for short positions can help manage risk.
The relationship between price movement and daily levels provides insights into market sentiment. For instance, if the price fails to break above the daily high, it may signify bearish sentiment, while a strong breakout can indicate bullish sentiment.
The way these levels are calculated in this indicator is based on finding pivots in the chart on D/W/M timeframe. The level is then set to previous D/W/M close = current D/W/M open.
In addition, when price is going up previous D/W/M open must be smaller than previous D/W/M close and current D/W/M close must be smaller than the current D/W/M open. When price is going down the opposite.
POINT OF CONTROL
The Point of Control (POC) is a key concept in volume profile analysis, which is commonly used in trading.
It represents the price level at which the highest volume of trading occurred during a specific period.
The POC is derived from the volume traded at various price levels over a defined time frame. In this indicator the timeframes are Daily, Weekly, and Montly.
It identifies the price level where the most trades took place, indicating strong interest and activity from traders at that price.
The POC often acts as a significant support or resistance level. If the price approaches the POC from above, it may act as a support level, while if approached from below, it can serve as a resistance level. Traders monitor the POC to gauge potential reversals or breakouts.
The way the POC is calculated in this indicator is by an approximation by analysing intrabars for the respective timeperiod (D/W/M), assigning the volume for each intrabar into the price-bins that the intrabar covers and finally identifying the bin with the highest aggregated volume.
The POC is the price in the middle of this bin.
The indicator uses a sample space for intrabars on the Daily timeframe of 15 minutes, 35 minutes for the Weekly timeframe, and 140 minutes for the Monthly timeframe.
The indicator has predefined the size of the bins to 0.2% of the price at the range low. That implies that the precision of the calulated POC og VAH/VAL is within 0.2%.
This reduction of precision is a tradeoff for performance and speed of the indicator.
This also implies that the bigger the difference from range high prices to range low prices the more bins the algorithm will iterate over. This is typically the case when calculating the monthly volume profile levels and especially high volatility assets such as alt coins.
Sometimes the number of iterations becomes too big for Trading View to handle. In these cases the bin size will be increased even more to reduce the number of iterations.
In such cases the bin size might increase by a factor of 2-3 decreasing the accuracy of the Volume Profile levels.
Anyway, since these Volume Profile levels are approximations and since precision is traded for performance the user should consider the Volume profile levels(POC, VAH, VAL) as zones rather than pin point accurate levels.
VALUE AREA HIGH/LOW STD1/STD2
The Value Area High (VAH) and Value Area Low (VAL) are important concepts in volume profile analysis, helping traders understand price levels where the majority of trading activity occurs for a given period.
The Value Area High/Low is the upper/lower boundary of the value area, representing the highest price level at which a certain percentage of the total trading volume occurred within a specified period.
The VAH/VAL indicates the price point above/below which the majority of trading activity is considered less valuable. It can serve as a potential resistance/support level, as prices above/below this level may experience selling/buying pressure from traders who view the price as overvalued/undervalued
In this indicator the timeframes are Daily, Weekly, and Monthly. This indicator provides two boundaries that can be selected in the menu.
The first boundary is 70% of the total volume (=1 standard deviation from mean). The second boundary is 95% of the total volume (=2 standard deviation from mean).
The way VAH/VAL is calculated is based on the same algorithm as for the POC.
However instead of identifying the bin with the highest volume, we start from range low and sum up the volume for each bin until the aggregated volume = 30%/70% for VAL1/VAH1 and aggregated volume = 5%/95% for VAL2/VAH2.
Then we simply set the VAL/VAH equal to the low of the respective bin.
FAIR VALUE GAPS
Fair Value Gaps (FVG) is a concept primarily used in technical analysis and price action trading, particularly within the context of futures and forex markets. They refer to areas on a price chart where there is a noticeable lack of trading activity, often highlighted by a significant price movement away from a previous level without trading occurring in between.
FVGs represent price levels where the market has moved significantly without any meaningful trading occurring. This can be seen as a "gap" on the price chart, where the price jumps from one level to another, often due to a rapid market reaction to news, events, or other factors.
These gaps typically appear when prices rise or fall quickly, creating a space on the chart where no transactions have taken place. For example, if a stock opens sharply higher and there are no trades at the prices in between the two levels, it creates a gap. The areas within these gaps can be areas of liquidity that the market may return to “fill” later on.
FVGs highlight inefficiencies in pricing and can indicate areas where the market may correct itself. When the market moves rapidly, it may leave behind price levels that traders eventually revisit to establish fair value.
Traders often watch for these gaps as potential reversal or continuation points. Many traders believe that price will eventually “fill” the gap, meaning it will return to those price levels, providing potential entry or exit points.
This indicator calculate FVGs on three different timeframes, Daily, Weekly and Montly.
In this indicator the FVGs are identified by looking for a three-candle pattern on a chart, signalling a discrete imbalance in order volume that prompts a quick price adjustment. These gaps reflect moments where the market sentiment strongly leans towards buying or selling yet lacks the opposite orders to maintain price stability.
The indicator sets the gap to the difference from the high of the first bar to the low of the third bar when price is moving up or from the low of the first bar to the high of the third bar when price is moving down.
CME GAPS (BTC only)
CME gaps refer to price discrepancies that can occur in charts for futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). These gaps typically arise from the fact that many futures markets, including those on the CME, operate nearly 24 hours a day but may have significant price movements during periods when the market is closed.
CME gaps occur when there is a difference between the closing price of a futures contract on one trading day and the opening price on the following trading day. This difference can create a "gap" on the price chart.
Opening Gaps: These usually happen when the market opens significantly higher or lower than the previous day's close, often influenced by news, economic data releases, or other market events occurring during non-trading hours.
Gaps can result from reactions to major announcements or developments, such as earnings reports, geopolitical events, or changes in economic indicators, leading to rapid price movements.
The importance of CME Gaps in Trading is the potential for Filling Gaps: Many traders believe that prices often "fill" gaps, meaning that prices may return to the gap area to establish fair value.
This can create potential trading opportunities based on the expectation of gap filling. Gaps can act as significant support or resistance levels. Traders monitor these levels to identify potential reversal points in price action.
The way the gap is identified in this indicator is by checking if current open is higher than previous bar close when price is moving up or if current open is lower than previous day close when price is moving down.
EQUILIBRIUM
Equilibrium in finance and trading refers to a state where supply and demand in a market balance each other, resulting in stable prices. It is a key concept in various economic and trading contexts. Here’s a concise description:
Market Equilibrium occurs when the quantity of a good or service supplied equals the quantity demanded at a specific price level. At this point, there is no inherent pressure for the price to change, as buyers and sellers are in agreement.
Equilibrium Price is the price at which the market is in equilibrium. It reflects the point where the supply curve intersects the demand curve on a graph. At the equilibrium price, the market clears, meaning there are no surplus goods or shortages.
In this indicator the equilibrium level is calculated simply by finding the midpoint of the Daily, Weekly, and Montly candles respectively.
NOTES
1) Performance. The algorithms are quite resource intensive and the time it takes the indicator to calculate all the levels could be 5 seconds or more, depending on the number of bars in the chart and especially if Montly Volume Profile levels are selected (POC, VAH or VAL).
2) Levels displayed vs the selected chart timeframe. On a timeframe smaller than the daily TF - both Daily, Weekly, and Monthly levels will be displayed. On a timeframe bigger than the daily TF but smaller than the weekly TF - the Weekly and Monthly levels will be display but not the Daily levels. On a timeframe bigger than the weekly TF but smaller than the monthly TF - only the Monthly levels will be displayed. Not Daily and Weekly.
CREDITS
The core algorithm for calculating the POC levels is based on the indicator "Naked Intrabar POC" developed by rumpypumpydumpy (https:www.tradingview.com/u/rumpypumpydumpy/).
The "Naked intrabar POC" indicator calculates the POC on the current chart timeframe.
This indicator (Multiple Naked Levels) adds two new features:
1) It calculates the POC on three specific timeframes, the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly timeframes - not only the current chart timeframe.
2) It adds functionaly by calculating the VAL and VAH of the volume profile on the Daily, Weekly, Monthly timeframes .
Auto Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) [TANHEF]Auto Volume Spread Analysis (visible volume and spread bars auto-scaled): Understanding Market Intentions through the Interpretation of Volume and Price Movements.
All the sections below contain the same descriptions as my other indicator "Volume Spread Analysis" with the exception of 'Auto Scaling'.
█ Auto-Scaling
This indicator auto-scales spread bars to match the visible volume bars, unlike the previous "Volume Spread Analysis " version which limited the number of visible spread bars to a fixed count. The auto-scaling feature allows for easier navigation through historical data, enabling both more historical spread bars to be viewed and more historical VSA pattern labels being displayed without requiring using the bar replay tool. Please note that this indicator’s auto-scaling feature recalculates the visible bars on the chart, causing the indicator to reload whenever the chart is moved.
Auto-scaled spread bars have two display options (set via 'Spread Bars Method' setting):
Lines: a bar lookback limit of 500 bars.
Polylines: no bar lookback limit as only plotted on visible bars on chart, which uses multiple polylines are used.
█ Simple Explanation:
The Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) indicator is a comprehensive tool that helps traders identify key market patterns and trends based on volume and spread data. This indicator highlights significant VSA patterns and provides insights into market behavior through color-coded volume/spread bars and identification of bars indicating strength, weakness, and neutrality between buyers and sellers. It also includes powerful volume and spread forecasting capabilities.
█ Laws of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA):
The origin of VSA begins with Richard Wyckoff, a pivotal figure in its development. Wyckoff made significant contributions to trading theory, including the formulation of three basic laws:
The Law of Supply and Demand: This fundamental law states that supply and demand balance each other over time. High demand and low supply lead to rising prices until demand falls to a level where supply can meet it. Conversely, low demand and high supply cause prices to fall until demand increases enough to absorb the excess supply.
The Law of Cause and Effect: This law assumes that a 'cause' will result in an 'effect' proportional to the 'cause'. A strong 'cause' will lead to a strong trend (effect), while a weak 'cause' will lead to a weak trend.
The Law of Effort vs. Result: This law asserts that the result should reflect the effort exerted. In trading terms, a large volume should result in a significant price move (spread). If the spread is small, the volume should also be small. Any deviation from this pattern is considered an anomaly.
█ Volume and Spread Analysis Bars:
Display: Volume and spread bars that consist of color coded levels, with the spread bars scaled to match the volume bars. A displayable table (Legend) of bar colors and levels can give context and clarify to each volume/spread bar.
Calculation: Levels are calculated using multipliers applied to moving averages to represent key levels based on historical data: low, normal, high, ultra. This method smooths out short-term fluctuations and focuses on longer-term trends.
Low Level: Indicates reduced volatility and market interest.
Normal Level: Reflects typical market activity and volatility.
High Level: Indicates increased activity and volatility.
Ultra Level: Identifies extreme levels of activity and volatility.
This illustrates the appearance of Volume and Spread bars when scaled and plotted together:
█ Forecasting Capabilities:
Display: Forecasted volume and spread levels using predictive models.
Calculation: Volume and Spread prediction calculations differ as volume is linear and spread is non-linear.
Volume Forecast (Linear Forecasting): Predicts future volume based on current volume rate and bar time till close.
Spread Forecast (Non-Linear Dynamic Forecasting): Predicts future spread using a dynamic multiplier, less near midpoint (consolidation) and more near low or high (trending), reflecting non-linear expansion.
Moving Averages: In forecasting, moving averages utilize forecasted levels instead of actual levels to ensure the correct level is forecasted (low, normal, high, or ultra).
The following compares forecasted volume with actual resulting volume, highlighting the power of early identifying increased volume through forecasted levels:
█ VSA Patterns:
Criteria and descriptions for each VSA pattern are available as tooltips beside them within the indicator’s settings. These tooltips provide explanations of potential developments based on the volume and spread data.
Signs of Strength (🟢): Patterns indicating strong buying pressure and potential market upturns.
Down Thrust
Selling Climax
No Effort ➤ Bearish Result
Bearish Effort ➤ No Result
Inverse Down Thrust
Failed Selling Climax
Bull Outside Reversal
End of Falling Market (Bag Holder)
Pseudo Down Thrust
No Supply
Signs of Weakness (🔴): Patterns indicating strong selling pressure and potential market downturns.
Up Thrust
Buying Climax
No Effort ➤ Bullish Result
Bullish Effort ➤ No Result
Inverse Up Thrust
Failed Buying Climax
Bear Outside Reversal
End of Rising Market (Bag Seller)
Pseudo Up Thrust
No Demand
Neutral Patterns (🔵): Patterns indicating market indecision and potential for continuation or reversal.
Quiet Doji
Balanced Doji
Strong Doji
Quiet Spinning Top
Balanced Spinning Top
Strong Spinning Top
Quiet High Wave
Balanced High Wave
Strong High Wave
Consolidation
Bar Patterns (🟡): Common candlestick patterns that offer insights into market sentiment. These are required in some VSA patterns and can also be displayed independently.
Bull Pin Bar
Bear Pin Bar
Doji
Spinning Top
High Wave
Consolidation
This demonstrates the acronym and descriptive options for displaying bar patterns, with the ability to hover over text to reveal the descriptive text along with what type of pattern:
█ Alerts:
VSA Pattern Alerts: Notifications for identified VSA patterns at bar close.
Volume and Spread Alerts: Alerts for confirmed and forecasted volume/spread levels (Low, High, Ultra).
Forecasted Volume and Spread Alerts: Alerts for forecasted volume/spread levels (High, Ultra) include a minimum percent time elapsed input to reduce false early signals by ensuring sufficient bar time has passed.
█ Inputs and Settings:
Indicator Bar Color: Select color schemes for bars (Normal, Detail, Levels).
Indicator Moving Average Color: Select schemes for bars (Fill, Lines, None).
Price Bar Colors: Options to color price bars based on VSA patterns and volume levels.
Legend: Display a table of bar colors and levels for context and clarity of volume/spread bars.
Forecast: Configure forecast display and prediction details for volume and spread.
Average Multipliers: Define multipliers for different levels (Low, High, Ultra) to refine the analysis.
Moving Average: Set volume and spread moving average settings.
VSA: Select the VSA patterns to be calculated and displayed (Strength, Weakness, Neutral).
Bar Patterns: Criteria for bar patterns used in VSA (Doji, Bull Pin Bar, Bear Pin Bar, Spinning Top, Consolidation, High Wave).
Colors: Set exact colors used for indicator bars, indicator moving averages, and price bars.
More Display Options: Specify how VSA pattern text is displayed (Acronym, Descriptive), positioning, and sizes.
Alerts: Configure alerts for VSA patterns, volume, and spread levels, including forecasted levels.
█ Usage:
The Volume Spread Analysis indicator is a helpful tool for leveraging volume spread analysis to make informed trading decisions. It offers comprehensive visual and textual cues on the chart, making it easier to identify market conditions, potential reversals, and continuations. Whether analyzing historical data or forecasting future trends, this indicator provides insights into the underlying factors driving market movements.
Volume Spread Analysis [TANHEF]Volume Spread Analysis: Understanding Market Intentions through the Interpretation of Volume and Price Movements.
█ Simple Explanation:
The Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) indicator is a comprehensive tool that helps traders identify key market patterns and trends based on volume and spread data. This indicator highlights significant VSA patterns and provides insights into market behavior through color-coded volume/spread bars and identification of bars indicating strength, weakness, and neutrality between buyers and sellers. It also includes powerful volume and spread forecasting capabilities.
█ Laws of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA):
The origin of VSA begins with Richard Wyckoff, a pivotal figure in its development. Wyckoff made significant contributions to trading theory, including the formulation of three basic laws:
The Law of Supply and Demand: This fundamental law states that supply and demand balance each other over time. High demand and low supply lead to rising prices until demand falls to a level where supply can meet it. Conversely, low demand and high supply cause prices to fall until demand increases enough to absorb the excess supply.
The Law of Cause and Effect: This law assumes that a 'cause' will result in an 'effect' proportional to the 'cause'. A strong 'cause' will lead to a strong trend (effect), while a weak 'cause' will lead to a weak trend.
The Law of Effort vs. Result: This law asserts that the result should reflect the effort exerted. In trading terms, a large volume should result in a significant price move (spread). If the spread is small, the volume should also be small. Any deviation from this pattern is considered an anomaly.
█ Volume and Spread Analysis Bars:
Display: Volume and/or spread bars that consist of color coded levels. If both of these are displayed, the number of spread bars can be limited for visual appeal and understanding, with the spread bars scaled to match the volume bars. While automatic calculation of the number of visual bars for auto scaling is possible, it is avoided to prevent the indicator from reloading whenever the number of visual price bars on the chart is adjusted, ensuring uninterrupted analysis. A displayable table (Legend) of bar colors and levels can give context and clarify to each volume/spread bar.
Calculation: Levels are calculated using multipliers applied to moving averages to represent key levels based on historical data: low, normal, high, ultra. This method smooths out short-term fluctuations and focuses on longer-term trends.
Low Level: Indicates reduced volatility and market interest.
Normal Level: Reflects typical market activity and volatility.
High Level: Indicates increased activity and volatility.
Ultra Level: Identifies extreme levels of activity and volatility.
This illustrates the appearance of Volume and Spread bars when scaled and plotted together:
█ Forecasting Capabilities:
Display: Forecasted volume and spread levels using predictive models.
Calculation: Volume and Spread prediction calculations differ as volume is linear and spread is non-linear.
Volume Forecast (Linear Forecasting): Predicts future volume based on current volume rate and bar time till close.
Spread Forecast (Non-Linear Dynamic Forecasting): Predicts future spread using a dynamic multiplier, less near midpoint (consolidation) and more near low or high (trending), reflecting non-linear expansion.
Moving Averages: In forecasting, moving averages utilize forecasted levels instead of actual levels to ensure the correct level is forecasted (low, normal, high, or ultra).
The following compares forecasted volume with actual resulting volume, highlighting the power of early identifying increased volume through forecasted levels:
█ VSA Patterns:
Criteria and descriptions for each VSA pattern are available as tooltips beside them within the indicator’s settings. These tooltips provide explanations of potential developments based on the volume and spread data.
Signs of Strength (🟢): Patterns indicating strong buying pressure and potential market upturns.
Down Thrust
Selling Climax
No Effort → Bearish Result
Bearish Effort → No Result
Inverse Down Thrust
Failed Selling Climax
Bull Outside Reversal
End of Falling Market (Bag Holder)
Pseudo Down Thrust
No Supply
Signs of Weakness (🔴): Patterns indicating strong selling pressure and potential market downturns.
Up Thrust
Buying Climax
No Effort → Bullish Result
Bullish Effort → No Result
Inverse Up Thrust
Failed Buying Climax
Bear Outside Reversal
End of Rising Market (Bag Seller)
Pseudo Up Thrust
No Demand
Neutral Patterns (🔵): Patterns indicating market indecision and potential for continuation or reversal.
Quiet Doji
Balanced Doji
Strong Doji
Quiet Spinning Top
Balanced Spinning Top
Strong Spinning Top
Quiet High Wave
Balanced High Wave
Strong High Wave
Consolidation
Bar Patterns (🟡): Common candlestick patterns that offer insights into market sentiment. These are required in some VSA patterns and can also be displayed independently.
Bull Pin Bar
Bear Pin Bar
Doji
Spinning Top
High Wave
Consolidation
This demonstrates the acronym and descriptive options for displaying bar patterns, with the ability to hover over text to reveal the descriptive text along with what type of pattern:
█ Alerts:
VSA Pattern Alerts: Notifications for identified VSA patterns at bar close.
Volume and Spread Alerts: Alerts for confirmed and forecasted volume/spread levels (Low, High, Ultra).
Forecasted Volume and Spread Alerts: Alerts for forecasted volume/spread levels (High, Ultra) include a minimum percent time elapsed input to reduce false early signals by ensuring sufficient bar time has passed.
█ Inputs and Settings:
Display Volume and/or Spread: Choose between displaying volume bars, spread bars, or both with different lookback periods.
Indicator Bar Color: Select color schemes for bars (Normal, Detail, Levels).
Indicator Moving Average Color: Select schemes for bars (Fill, Lines, None).
Price Bar Colors: Options to color price bars based on VSA patterns and volume levels.
Legend: Display a table of bar colors and levels for context and clarity of volume/spread bars.
Forecast: Configure forecast display and prediction details for volume and spread.
Average Multipliers: Define multipliers for different levels (Low, High, Ultra) to refine the analysis.
Moving Average: Set volume and spread moving average settings.
VSA: Select the VSA patterns to be calculated and displayed (Strength, Weakness, Neutral).
Bar Patterns: Criteria for bar patterns used in VSA (Doji, Bull Pin Bar, Bear Pin Bar, Spinning Top, Consolidation, High Wave).
Colors: Set exact colors used for indicator bars, indicator moving averages, and price bars.
More Display Options: Specify how VSA pattern text is displayed (Acronym, Descriptive), positioning, and sizes.
Alerts: Configure alerts for VSA patterns, volume, and spread levels, including forecasted levels.
█ Usage:
The Volume Spread Analysis indicator is a helpful tool for leveraging volume spread analysis to make informed trading decisions. It offers comprehensive visual and textual cues on the chart, making it easier to identify market conditions, potential reversals, and continuations. Whether analyzing historical data or forecasting future trends, this indicator provides insights into the underlying factors driving market movements.
Zones DetectorThis indicator highlights supply and demand zones.
Method to detect the zones:
1.- The body of the candle is calculated and it is checked how many times it can be repeated in its highest or lowest wick. If the body of the candle is repeated N number of times (Min. Factor) in any of its wicks, it is taken as an indecision zone.
2.- The subsequent candles are reviewed (Confirmation Bars) to determine if the zone is of supply or demand. For demand zones, subsequent prices must be above the minimum price of the indecision zone and for supply zones, subsequent prices must be below the maximum price of the indecision zone.
3.- The previous average volume of N periods (Periods) to the indecision zone is calculated and check that has a minimum percentage change (Min. Volume Change) with respect to the indecision zone and its subsequent candles (Confirmation Bars).
If the previous steps are met, the zone will be highlighted with a green color for demand (Zones/Demand) and red for supply (Zones/Supply), for the indecision zones (identified by point 1) they will be highlighted in gray (Zones/Indecision)
Invalid zones are automatically hidden from the chart, using methods such as: "wick" and "close".
Settings
Indecision
Min. Factor: Set the number of times that the body of the candle must be repeated in its wicks. High values will be stronger indecision zones, but fewer will be found, low values will find more zones.
Invalidation Method: Method used to automatically invalidate zones. It can be "wick" or "close".
Confirmation Bars: Defines the number of candles used to confirm an indecision zone found
Volume
Min. Volume Change(%): Percentage of minimum change in volume (+/-) that the zone must have to be displayed
Previous Periods: Number of previous periods to be used to calculate the average volume prior to the indecision zone.
Zones
Show Last.- Number of zones (demand, supply, indecision) to be shown.
Demand.- Color to highlight the demand zones
Supply.- Color to highlight the supply zones
Indecision.- Color to highlight the indecision zones
Use
The highlighted supply and demand zones can be used as support or resistance to place orders.
Next Gen Auto S/RThis indicator will automatically plot support and resistance levels and will also allow you to overlay multi time frame support and resistance on any time frame that you are currently conducting analysis on. In addition you can also set alerts when a support and resistance level is tested, fine tune how many levels you would like to view on your charts, option to input how many candlesticks minimum you would like between support and resistance levels. You can also select breakout mode which will turn old support into resistance by a colour change and turn old resistance into support. NEW you can now use extended levels and change your zones into lines.
Order Flow Imbalance Finder By TurkThis indicator is created to find the imbalances when a market exchange receives too many of one kind of order—buy, sell, limit—and not enough of the order's counterpoint and price shoots up or down and it left with unfilled orders. If you know how to trade the imbalances, this indicator can help you by find imbalances automatically.
Linh's Anomaly Radar v2What this script does
It’s an event detector for price/volume anomalies that often precede or confirm moves.
It watches a bunch of patterns (Wyckoff tests, squeezes, failed breakouts, turnover bursts, etc.), applies robust z-scores, optional trend filters, cooldowns (to avoid spam), and then fires:
A shape/label on the bar,
A row in the mini panel (top-right),
A ready-made alertcondition you can hook into.
How to add & set up (TradingView)
Paste the script → Save → Add to chart on Daily first (works on any TF).
Open Settings → Inputs:
General
• Use Robust Z (MAD): more outlier-resistant; keep on.
• Z Lookback: 60 bars is ~3 months; bump to 120 for slower regimes.
• Cooldown: min bars to wait before the same signal can fire again (default 5).
• Use trend filter: if on, “bullish” signals only fire above SMA(tfLen), “bearish” below.
Thresholds: fine-tune sensitivity (defaults are sane).
To create alerts: Right-click chart → Add alert
Condition: Linh’s Anomaly Radar v2 → choose a specific signal or Composite (Σ).
Options: “Once per bar close” (recommended).
Customize message if you want ticker/timeframe in your phone push.
The mini panel (top-right)
Signal column: short code (see cheat sheet below).
Fired column: a dot “•” means that on the latest bar this signal fired.
Score (right column): total count of signals that fired this bar.
Σ≥N shows your composite threshold (how many must fire to trigger the “Composite” alert).
Shapes & codes (what’s what)
Code Name (category) What it’s looking for Why it matters
STL Stealth Volume z(volume)>5 & ** z(return)
EVR Effort vs Result squeeze z(vol)>3 & z(TR)<−0.5 Heavy effort, tiny spread → absorption
TGV Tight+Heavy (HL/ATR)<0.6 & z(vol)>3 Tight bar + heavy tape → pro activity
CLS Accumulation cluster ≥3 of last 5 bars: up, vol↑, close near high Classic accumulation footprint
GAP Open drive failure Big gap not filled (≥80%) & vol↑ One-sided open stalls → fade risk
BB↑ BB squeeze breakout Squeeze (z(BBWidth)<−1.3) → close > upperBB & vol↑ Regime shift with confirmation
ER↑ Effort→Result inversion Down day on vol then next bar > prior high Demand overwhelms supply
OBV OBV divergence OBV slope up & ** z(ret20)
WER Wide Effort, Opposite Result z(vol)>3, close+1 Selling into strength / distribution
NS No-Supply (Wyckoff) Down bar, HL<0.6·ATR, vol << avg Sellers absent into weakness
ND No-Demand (Wyckoff) Up bar, HL<0.6·ATR, vol << avg Buyers absent into strength
VAC Liquidity Vacuum z(vol)<−1.5 & ** z(ret)
UTD UTAD (failed breakout) Breaks swing-high, closes back below, vol↑ Stop-run, reversal risk
SPR Spring (failed breakdown) Breaks swing-low, closes back above, vol↑ Bear trap, reversal risk
PIV Pocket Pivot Up bar; vol > max down-vol in lookback Quiet base → sudden demand
NR7 Narrow Range 7 + Vol HL is 7-bar low & z(vol)>2 Coiled spring with participation
52W 52-wk breakout quality New 52-wk close high + squeeze + vol↑ High-quality breakouts
VvK Vol-of-Vol kink z(ATR20,200)>0.5 & z(ATR5,60)<0 Long-vol wakes up, short-vol compresses
TAC Turnover acceleration SMA3 vol / SMA20 vol > 1.8 & muted return Participation surging before move
RBd RSI Bullish div Price LL, RSI HL, vol z>1 Exhaustion of sellers
RS↑ RSI Bearish div Price HH, RSI LH, vol z>1 Exhaustion of buyers
Σ Composite Count of all fired signals ≥ threshold High-conviction bar
Placement:
Triangles up (below bar) → bullish-leaning events.
Triangles down (above bar) → bearish-leaning events.
Circles → neutral context (VAC, VvK, Composite).
Key inputs (quick reference)
General
Use Robust Z (MAD): keep on for noisy tickers.
Z Lookback (lenZ): 60 default; 120 if you want fewer alerts.
Trend filter: when on, bullish signals require close > SMA(tfLen), bearish require <.
Cooldown: prevents repeated firing of the same signal within N bars.
Phase-1 thresholds (core)
Stealth: vol z > 5, |ret z| < 1.
EVR: vol z > 3, TR z < −0.5.
Tight+Heavy: (HL/ATR) < 0.6, vol z > 3.
Cluster: window=5, min=3 strong bars.
GapFail: gap/ATR ≥1.5, fill <80%, vol z > 2.
BB Squeeze: z(BBWidth)<−1.3 then breakout with vol z > 2.
Eff→Res Up: prev bar heavy down → current bar > prior high.
OBV Div: OBV uptrend + |z(ret20)|<0.3.
Phase-2 thresholds (extras)
WER: vol z > 3, close1.
No-Supply/No-Demand: tight bar & very light volume vs SMA20.
Vacuum: vol z < −1.5, |ret z|>1.5.
UTAD/Spring: swing lookback N (default 20), vol z > 2.
Pocket Pivot: lookback for prior down-vol max (default 10).
NR7: 7-bar narrowest range + vol z > 2.
52W Quality: new 52-wk high + squeeze + vol z > 2.
VoV Kink: z(ATR20,200)>0.5 AND z(ATR5,60)<0.
Turnover Accel: SMA3/SMA20 > 1.8 and |ret z|<1.
RSI Divergences: compare to n bars back (default 14).
How to use it (playbooks)
A) Daily scan workflow
Run on Daily for your VN watchlist.
Turn Composite (Σ) alert on with Σ≥2 or ≥3 to reduce noise.
When a bar fires Σ (or a fav combo like STL + BB↑), drop to 60-min to time entries.
B) Breakout quality check
Look for 52W together with BB↑, TAC, and OBV.
If WER/ND appear near highs → downgrade the breakout.
C) Spring/UTAD reversals
If SPR fires near major support and RBd confirms → long bias with stop below spring low.
If UTD + WER/RS↑ near resistance → short/fade with stop above UTAD high.
D) Accumulation basing
During bases, you want CLS, OBV, TGV, STL, NR7.
A pocket pivot (PIV) can be your early add; manage risk below base lows.
Tuning tips
Too many signals? Raise stealthVolZ to 5.5–6, evrVolZ to 3.5, use Σ≥3.
Fast movers? Lower bbwZthr to −1.0 (less strict squeeze), keep trend filter on.
Illiquid tickers? Keep MAD z-scores on, increase lookbacks (e.g., lenZ=120).
Limitations & good habits
First lenZ bars on a new symbol are less reliable (incomplete z-window).
Some ideas (VWAP magnet, close auction spikes, ETF/foreign flows, options skew) need intraday/external feeds — not included here.
Pine can’t “screen” across the whole market; set alerts or cycle your watchlist.
Quick troubleshooting
Compilation errors: make sure you’re on Pine v6; don’t nest functions in if blocks; each var int must be declared on its own line.
No shapes firing: check trend filter (maybe price is below SMA and you’re waiting for bullish signals), and verify thresholds aren’t too strict.
Volatility Risk Premium GOLD & SILVER 1.0ENGLISH
This indicator (V-R-P) calculates the (one month) Volatility Risk Premium for GOLD and SILVER.
V-R-P is the premium hedgers pay for over Realized Volatility for GOLD and SILVER options.
The premium stems from hedgers paying to insure their portfolios, and manifests itself in the differential between the price at which options are sold (Implied Volatility) and the volatility GOLD and SILVER ultimately realize (Realized Volatility).
I am using 30-day Implied Volatility (IV) and 21-day Realized Volatility (HV) as the basis for my calculation, as one month of IV is based on 30 calendaristic days and one month of HV is based on 21 trading days.
At first, the indicator appears blank and a label instructs you to choose which index you want the V-R-P to plot on the chart. Use the indicator settings (the sprocket) to choose one of the precious metals (or both).
Together with the V-R-P line, the indicator will show its one year moving average within a range of +/- 15% (which you can change) for benchmarking purposes. We should consider this range the “normalized” V-R-P for the actual period.
The Zero Line is also marked on the indicator.
Interpretation
When V-R-P is within the “normalized” range, … well... volatility and uncertainty, as it’s seen by the option market, is “normal”. We have a “premium” of volatility which should be considered normal.
When V-R-P is above the “normalized” range, the volatility premium is high. This means that investors are willing to pay more for options because they see an increasing uncertainty in markets.
When V-R-P is below the “normalized” range but positive (above the Zero line), the premium investors are willing to pay for risk is low, meaning they see decreasing uncertainty and risks in the market, but not by much.
When V-R-P is negative (below the Zero line), we have COMPLACENCY. This means investors see upcoming risk as being lower than what happened in the market in the recent past (within the last 30 days).
CONCEPTS :
Volatility Risk Premium
The volatility risk premium (V-R-P) is the notion that implied volatility (IV) tends to be higher than realized volatility (HV) as market participants tend to overestimate the likelihood of a significant market crash.
This overestimation may account for an increase in demand for options as protection against an equity portfolio. Basically, this heightened perception of risk may lead to a higher willingness to pay for these options to hedge a portfolio.
In other words, investors are willing to pay a premium for options to have protection against significant market crashes even if statistically the probability of these crashes is lesser or even negligible.
Therefore, the tendency of implied volatility is to be higher than realized volatility, thus V-R-P being positive.
Realized/Historical Volatility
Historical Volatility (HV) is the statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for an index over a given period of time.
Historical volatility is a well-known concept in finance, but there is confusion in how exactly it is calculated. Different sources may use slightly different historical volatility formulas.
For calculating Historical Volatility I am using the most common approach: annualized standard deviation of logarithmic returns, based on daily closing prices.
Implied Volatility
Implied Volatility (IV) is the market's forecast of a likely movement in the price of the index and it is expressed annualized, using percentages and standard deviations over a specified time horizon (usually 30 days).
IV is used to price options contracts where high implied volatility results in options with higher premiums and vice versa. Also, options supply and demand and time value are major determining factors for calculating Implied Volatility.
Implied Volatility usually increases in bearish markets and decreases when the market is bullish.
For determining GOLD and SILVER implied volatility I used their volatility indices: GVZ and VXSLV (30-day IV) provided by CBOE.
Warning
Please be aware that because CBOE doesn’t provide real-time data in Tradingview, my V-R-P calculation is also delayed, so you shouldn’t use it in the first 15 minutes after the opening.
This indicator is calibrated for a daily time frame.
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ESPAŇOL
Este indicador (V-R-P) calcula la Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (de un mes) para GOLD y SILVER.
V-R-P es la prima que pagan los hedgers sobre la Volatilidad Realizada para las opciones de GOLD y SILVER.
La prima proviene de los hedgers que pagan para asegurar sus carteras y se manifiesta en el diferencial entre el precio al que se venden las opciones (Volatilidad Implícita) y la volatilidad que finalmente se realiza en el ORO y la PLATA (Volatilidad Realizada).
Estoy utilizando la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) de 30 días y la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) de 21 días como base para mi cálculo, ya que un mes de IV se basa en 30 días calendario y un mes de HV se basa en 21 días de negociación.
Al principio, el indicador aparece en blanco y una etiqueta le indica que elija qué índice desea que el V-R-P represente en el gráfico. Use la configuración del indicador (la rueda dentada) para elegir uno de los metales preciosos (o ambos).
Junto con la línea V-R-P, el indicador mostrará su promedio móvil de un año dentro de un rango de +/- 15% (que puede cambiar) con fines de evaluación comparativa. Deberíamos considerar este rango como el V-R-P "normalizado" para el período real.
La línea Cero también está marcada en el indicador.
Interpretación
Cuando el V-R-P está dentro del rango "normalizado",... bueno... la volatilidad y la incertidumbre, como las ve el mercado de opciones, es "normal". Tenemos una “prima” de volatilidad que debería considerarse normal.
Cuando V-R-P está por encima del rango "normalizado", la prima de volatilidad es alta. Esto significa que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar más por las opciones porque ven una creciente incertidumbre en los mercados.
Cuando el V-R-P está por debajo del rango "normalizado" pero es positivo (por encima de la línea Cero), la prima que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar por el riesgo es baja, lo que significa que ven una disminución, pero no pronunciada, de la incertidumbre y los riesgos en el mercado.
Cuando V-R-P es negativo (por debajo de la línea Cero), tenemos COMPLACENCIA. Esto significa que los inversores ven el riesgo próximo como menor que lo que sucedió en el mercado en el pasado reciente (en los últimos 30 días).
CONCEPTOS :
Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad
La Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (V-R-P) es la noción de que la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) tiende a ser más alta que la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) ya que los participantes del mercado tienden a sobrestimar la probabilidad de una caída significativa del mercado.
Esta sobreestimación puede explicar un aumento en la demanda de opciones como protección contra una cartera de acciones. Básicamente, esta mayor percepción de riesgo puede conducir a una mayor disposición a pagar por estas opciones para cubrir una cartera.
En otras palabras, los inversores están dispuestos a pagar una prima por las opciones para tener protección contra caídas significativas del mercado, incluso si estadísticamente la probabilidad de estas caídas es menor o insignificante.
Por lo tanto, la tendencia de la Volatilidad Implícita es de ser mayor que la Volatilidad Realizada, por lo cual el V-R-P es positivo.
Volatilidad Realizada/Histórica
La Volatilidad Histórica (HV) es la medida estadística de la dispersión de los rendimientos de un índice durante un período de tiempo determinado.
La Volatilidad Histórica es un concepto bien conocido en finanzas, pero existe confusión sobre cómo se calcula exactamente. Varias fuentes pueden usar fórmulas de Volatilidad Histórica ligeramente diferentes.
Para calcular la Volatilidad Histórica, utilicé el enfoque más común: desviación estándar anualizada de rendimientos logarítmicos, basada en los precios de cierre diarios.
Volatilidad Implícita
La Volatilidad Implícita (IV) es la previsión del mercado de un posible movimiento en el precio del índice y se expresa anualizada, utilizando porcentajes y desviaciones estándar en un horizonte de tiempo específico (generalmente 30 días).
IV se utiliza para cotizar contratos de opciones donde la alta Volatilidad Implícita da como resultado opciones con primas más altas y viceversa. Además, la oferta y la demanda de opciones y el valor temporal son factores determinantes importantes para calcular la Volatilidad Implícita.
La Volatilidad Implícita generalmente aumenta en los mercados bajistas y disminuye cuando el mercado es alcista.
Para determinar la Volatilidad Implícita de GOLD y SILVER utilicé sus índices de volatilidad: GVZ y VXSLV (30 días IV) proporcionados por CBOE.
Precaución
Tenga en cuenta que debido a que CBOE no proporciona datos en tiempo real en Tradingview, mi cálculo de V-R-P también se retrasa, y por este motivo no se recomienda usar en los primeros 15 minutos desde la apertura.
Este indicador está calibrado para un marco de tiempo diario.
Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) 1.0ENGLISH
This indicator (V-R-P) calculates the (one month) Volatility Risk Premium for S&P500 and Nasdaq-100.
V-R-P is the premium hedgers pay for over Realized Volatility for S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 index options.
The premium stems from hedgers paying to insure their portfolios, and manifests itself in the differential between the price at which options are sold (Implied Volatility) and the volatility the S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 ultimately realize (Realized Volatility).
I am using 30-day Implied Volatility (IV) and 21-day Realized Volatility (HV) as the basis for my calculation, as one month of IV is based on 30 calendaristic days and one month of HV is based on 21 trading days.
At first, the indicator appears blank and a label instructs you to choose which index you want the V-R-P to plot on the chart. Use the indicator settings (the sprocket) to choose one of the indices (or both).
Together with the V-R-P line, the indicator will show its one year moving average within a range of +/- 15% (which you can change) for benchmarking purposes. We should consider this range the “normalized” V-R-P for the actual period.
The Zero Line is also marked on the indicator.
Interpretation
When V-R-P is within the “normalized” range, … well... volatility and uncertainty, as it’s seen by the option market, is “normal”. We have a “premium” of volatility which should be considered normal.
When V-R-P is above the “normalized” range, the volatility premium is high. This means that investors are willing to pay more for options because they see an increasing uncertainty in markets.
When V-R-P is below the “normalized” range but positive (above the Zero line), the premium investors are willing to pay for risk is low, meaning they see decreasing uncertainty and risks in the market, but not by much.
When V-R-P is negative (below the Zero line), we have COMPLACENCY. This means investors see upcoming risk as being lower than what happened in the market in the recent past (within the last 30 days).
CONCEPTS:
Volatility Risk Premium
The volatility risk premium (V-R-P) is the notion that implied volatility (IV) tends to be higher than realized volatility (HV) as market participants tend to overestimate the likelihood of a significant market crash.
This overestimation may account for an increase in demand for options as protection against an equity portfolio. Basically, this heightened perception of risk may lead to a higher willingness to pay for these options to hedge a portfolio.
In other words, investors are willing to pay a premium for options to have protection against significant market crashes even if statistically the probability of these crashes is lesser or even negligible.
Therefore, the tendency of implied volatility is to be higher than realized volatility, thus V-R-P being positive.
Realized/Historical Volatility
Historical Volatility (HV) is the statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for an index over a given period of time.
Historical volatility is a well-known concept in finance, but there is confusion in how exactly it is calculated. Different sources may use slightly different historical volatility formulas.
For calculating Historical Volatility I am using the most common approach: annualized standard deviation of logarithmic returns, based on daily closing prices.
Implied Volatility
Implied Volatility (IV) is the market's forecast of a likely movement in the price of the index and it is expressed annualized, using percentages and standard deviations over a specified time horizon (usually 30 days).
IV is used to price options contracts where high implied volatility results in options with higher premiums and vice versa. Also, options supply and demand and time value are major determining factors for calculating Implied Volatility.
Implied Volatility usually increases in bearish markets and decreases when the market is bullish.
For determining S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 implied volatility I used their volatility indices: VIX and VXN (30-day IV) provided by CBOE.
Warning
Please be aware that because CBOE doesn’t provide real-time data in Tradingview, my V-R-P calculation is also delayed, so you shouldn’t use it in the first 15 minutes after the opening.
This indicator is calibrated for a daily time frame.
ESPAŇOL
Este indicador (V-R-P) calcula la Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (de un mes) para S&P500 y Nasdaq-100.
V-R-P es la prima que pagan los hedgers sobre la Volatilidad Realizada para las opciones de los índices S&P500 y Nasdaq-100.
La prima proviene de los hedgers que pagan para asegurar sus carteras y se manifiesta en el diferencial entre el precio al que se venden las opciones (Volatilidad Implícita) y la volatilidad que finalmente se realiza en el S&P500 y el Nasdaq-100 (Volatilidad Realizada).
Estoy utilizando la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) de 30 días y la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) de 21 días como base para mi cálculo, ya que un mes de IV se basa en 30 días calendario y un mes de HV se basa en 21 días de negociación.
Al principio, el indicador aparece en blanco y una etiqueta le indica que elija qué índice desea que el V-R-P represente en el gráfico. Use la configuración del indicador (la rueda dentada) para elegir uno de los índices (o ambos).
Junto con la línea V-R-P, el indicador mostrará su promedio móvil de un año dentro de un rango de +/- 15% (que puede cambiar) con fines de evaluación comparativa. Deberíamos considerar este rango como el V-R-P "normalizado" para el período real.
La línea Cero también está marcada en el indicador.
Interpretación
Cuando el V-R-P está dentro del rango "normalizado",... bueno... la volatilidad y la incertidumbre, como las ve el mercado de opciones, es "normal". Tenemos una “prima” de volatilidad que debería considerarse normal.
Cuando V-R-P está por encima del rango "normalizado", la prima de volatilidad es alta. Esto significa que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar más por las opciones porque ven una creciente incertidumbre en los mercados.
Cuando el V-R-P está por debajo del rango "normalizado" pero es positivo (por encima de la línea Cero), la prima que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar por el riesgo es baja, lo que significa que ven una disminución, pero no pronunciada, de la incertidumbre y los riesgos en el mercado.
Cuando V-R-P es negativo (por debajo de la línea Cero), tenemos COMPLACENCIA. Esto significa que los inversores ven el riesgo próximo como menor que lo que sucedió en el mercado en el pasado reciente (en los últimos 30 días).
CONCEPTOS:
Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad
La Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (V-R-P) es la noción de que la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) tiende a ser más alta que la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) ya que los participantes del mercado tienden a sobrestimar la probabilidad de una caída significativa del mercado.
Esta sobreestimación puede explicar un aumento en la demanda de opciones como protección contra una cartera de acciones. Básicamente, esta mayor percepción de riesgo puede conducir a una mayor disposición a pagar por estas opciones para cubrir una cartera.
En otras palabras, los inversores están dispuestos a pagar una prima por las opciones para tener protección contra caídas significativas del mercado, incluso si estadísticamente la probabilidad de estas caídas es menor o insignificante.
Por lo tanto, la tendencia de la Volatilidad Implícita es de ser mayor que la Volatilidad Realizada, por lo cual el V-R-P es positivo.
Volatilidad Realizada/Histórica
La Volatilidad Histórica (HV) es la medida estadística de la dispersión de los rendimientos de un índice durante un período de tiempo determinado.
La Volatilidad Histórica es un concepto bien conocido en finanzas, pero existe confusión sobre cómo se calcula exactamente. Varias fuentes pueden usar fórmulas de Volatilidad Histórica ligeramente diferentes.
Para calcular la Volatilidad Histórica, utilicé el enfoque más común: desviación estándar anualizada de rendimientos logarítmicos, basada en los precios de cierre diarios.
Volatilidad Implícita
La Volatilidad Implícita (IV) es la previsión del mercado de un posible movimiento en el precio del índice y se expresa anualizada, utilizando porcentajes y desviaciones estándar en un horizonte de tiempo específico (generalmente 30 días).
IV se utiliza para cotizar contratos de opciones donde la alta Volatilidad Implícita da como resultado opciones con primas más altas y viceversa. Además, la oferta y la demanda de opciones y el valor temporal son factores determinantes importantes para calcular la Volatilidad Implícita.
La Volatilidad Implícita generalmente aumenta en los mercados bajistas y disminuye cuando el mercado es alcista.
Para determinar la Volatilidad Implícita de S&P500 y Nasdaq-100 utilicé sus índices de volatilidad: VIX y VXN (30 días IV) proporcionados por CBOE.
Precaución
Tenga en cuenta que debido a que CBOE no proporciona datos en tiempo real en Tradingview, mi cálculo de V-R-P también se retrasa, y por este motivo no se recomienda usar en los primeros 15 minutos desde la apertura.
Este indicador está calibrado para un marco de tiempo diario.
Smart Money Volume Matrix [Ata]Smart Money Volume Matrix
The Smart Money Volume Matrix (SMV Matrix) is an advanced volume-spread analysis (VSA) dashboard and charting tool designed to identify significant market anomalies by analyzing the relationship between price extremes and volume flow.
Unlike traditional indicators that rely solely on moving averages or oscillators, this tool performs a "Snapshot Analysis" of a defined lookback period (default: 100 bars) to rank price action based on Order Flow Dominance. It isolates the Top 10 Highest and Lowest Close prices and scrutinizes the volume behind them to categorize market sentiment into four distinct phases: Distribution, No Demand, Absorption, and Exhaustion.
Core Logic & Methodology
The script operates on a Zero-Lag Snapshot Engine. It does not print historical signals bar-by-bar; instead, it evaluates the current market structure relative to the recent history (Lookback Period).
1. Ranking Engine: The script scans the lookback period to find the Top 10 Highest Closes and Top 10 Lowest Closes.
2. Volume Classification: For each ranked bar, it calculates the "Intrabar Buy/Sell Volume" (or approximates it using candle geometry if Intrabar data is unavailable).
3. Dominance Detection: It compares Buying Volume vs. Selling Volume to determine who is in control at critical price levels.
Signal Classifications (VSA Logic)
The indicator generates labels on the chart and updates the dashboard table based on the following logic:
1. At Price Tops (Resistance Areas):
- Distribution (Supply): High Price + High Total Volume + Sellers Dominant.
Interpretation: Indicates heavy institutional selling into rising prices. Often precedes a reversal.
- Buy Climax: High Price + High Total Volume + Buyers Dominant.
Interpretation: Extreme buying frenzy. While bullish, it often marks a "trap" or temporary top due to exhaustion.
- No Demand: High Price + Low Volume.
Interpretation: Prices drifted higher but lack institutional participation. A sign of weakness.
2. At Price Bottoms (Support Areas):
- Absorption: Low Price + High Total Volume + Buyers Dominant.
Interpretation: Institutional money is absorbing selling pressure (passive buying). A strong sign of accumulation.
- Panic Sell: Low Price + High Total Volume + Sellers Dominant.
Interpretation: Extreme fear. High volume at lows typically indicates capitulation and potential hands-changing.
- Exhaustion: Low Price + Low Volume.
Interpretation: Selling pressure has dried up. The market may float upward due to lack of sellers.
Key Features
- Dashboard Matrix Table:
Displays the exact Close Price, Buy/Sell Volume, and Market State (Group) for the Top 10 ranking bars.
Smart Footer: Automatically detects the active "Resistance Zone" (derived from G1 Distribution levels) and "Support Zone" (derived from G3 Absorption levels) and reports the current price status relative to these zones (e.g., "Testing Resistance", "Breakout", "At Support").
- Smart Zones (Auto S/R):
Automatically draws Support and Resistance boxes extending into the future based on the most significant volume clusters found in the rankings. Includes logic to detect "Flips" (e.g., when Support breaks, it is labeled as a flip to Resistance).
- Average Trend Channels:
Calculates a Linear Regression trend line based specifically on the coordinates of the Top 10 Highs and Top 10 Lows, providing a "Best Fit" channel for the current market structure.
- Visual Clarity:
Labels utilize a "Smart Stacking" algorithm to prevent overlap on the chart. Guide lines connect labels to their respective candles for precise identification.
Settings & Configuration
- Matrix Settings: Lookback Period (default 100 bars) and Top Rank Count.
- Volume Engine: Choose between "Intrabar (Precise)" for accurate order flow or "Geometry (Approx)" for standard volume estimation.
- Visuals: Toggle Table, Labels, Lines, Zones, and Trend Lines. Adjust transparency and font sizes.
IMPORTANT NOTE ON SNAPSHOT LOGIC
This indicator is designed as a Real-Time Dashboard. It continuously updates the "Top 10" list as new candles form. Therefore, a label that appears on a candle may disappear if that candle falls out of the Top 10 ranking or leaves the lookback window. This is intended behavior to ensure the chart always reflects the current most critical levels, rather than a historical record of past signals. It is best used for live market analysis rather than historical back testing.
Disclaimer: This tool is for educational and analytical purposes only. Volume analysis is subjective and should be used in conjunction with other methods of technical analysis.
COT IndexTHE HIDDEN INTELLIGENCE IN FUTURES MARKETS
What if you could see what the smartest players in the futures markets are doing before the crowd catches on? While retail traders chase momentum indicators and moving averages, obsess over Japanese candlestick patterns, and debate whether the RSI should be set to fourteen or twenty-one periods, institutional players leave footprints in the sand through their mandatory reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These footprints, published weekly in the Commitment of Traders reports, have been hiding in plain sight for decades, available to anyone with an internet connection, yet remarkably few traders understand how to interpret them correctly. The COT Index indicator transforms this raw institutional positioning data into actionable trading signals, bringing Wall Street intelligence to your trading screen without requiring expensive Bloomberg terminals or insider connections.
The uncomfortable truth is this: Most retail traders operate in a binary world. Long or short. Buy or sell. They apply technical analysis to individual positions, constrained by limited capital that forces them to concentrate risk in single directional bets. Meanwhile, institutional traders operate in an entirely different dimension. They manage portfolios dynamically weighted across multiple markets, adjusting exposure based on evolving market conditions, correlation shifts, and risk assessments that retail traders never see. A hedge fund might be simultaneously long gold, short oil, neutral on copper, and overweight agricultural commodities, with position sizes calibrated to volatility and portfolio Greeks. When they increase gold exposure from five percent to eight percent of portfolio allocation, this rebalancing decision reflects sophisticated analysis of opportunity cost, risk parity, and cross-market dynamics that no individual chart pattern can capture.
This portfolio reweighting activity, multiplied across hundreds of institutional participants, manifests in the aggregate positioning data published weekly by the CFTC. The Commitment of Traders report does not show individual trades or strategies. It shows the collective footprint of how actual commercial hedgers and large speculators have allocated their capital across different markets. When mining companies collectively increase forward gold sales to hedge thirty percent more production than last quarter, they are not reacting to a moving average crossover. They are making strategic allocation decisions based on production forecasts, cost structures, and price expectations derived from operational realities invisible to outside observers. This is portfolio management in action, revealed through positioning data rather than price charts.
If you want to understand how institutional capital actually flows, how sophisticated traders genuinely position themselves across market cycles, the COT report provides a rare window into that hidden world. But understand what you are getting into. This is not a tool for scalpers seeking confirmation of the next five-minute move. This is not an oscillator that flashes oversold at market bottoms with convenient precision. COT analysis operates on a timescale measured in weeks and months, revealing positioning shifts that precede major market turns but offer no precision timing. The data arrives three days stale, published only once per week, capturing strategic positioning rather than tactical entries.
If you need instant gratification, if you trade intraday moves, if you demand mechanical signals with ninety percent accuracy, close this document now. COT analysis rewards patience, position sizing discipline, and tolerance for being early. It punishes impatience, overleveraging, and the expectation that any single indicator can substitute for market understanding.
The premise is deceptively simple. Every Tuesday, large traders in futures markets must report their positions to the CFTC. By Friday afternoon, this data becomes public. Academic research spanning three decades has consistently shown that not all market participants are created equal. Some traders consistently profit while others consistently lose. Some anticipate major turning points while others chase trends into exhaustion. Bessembinder and Chan (1992) demonstrated in their seminal study that commercial hedgers, those with actual exposure to the underlying commodity or financial instrument, possess superior forecasting ability compared to speculators. Their research, published in the Journal of Finance, found statistically significant predictive power in commercial positioning, particularly at extreme levels. This finding challenged the efficient market hypothesis and opened the door to a new approach to market analysis based on positioning rather than price alone.
Think about what this means. Every week, the government publishes a report showing you exactly how the most informed market participants are positioned. Not their opinions. Not their predictions. Their actual money at risk. When agricultural producers collectively hold their largest short hedge in five years, they are not making idle speculation. They are locking in prices for crops they will harvest, informed by private knowledge of weather conditions, soil quality, inventory levels, and demand expectations invisible to outside observers. When energy companies aggressively hedge forward production at current prices, they reveal information about expected supply that no analyst report can capture. This is not technical analysis based on past prices. This is not fundamental analysis based on publicly available data. This is behavioral analysis based on how the smartest money is actually positioned, how institutions allocate capital across portfolios, and how those allocation decisions shift as market conditions evolve.
WHY SOME TRADERS KNOW MORE THAN OTHERS
Building on this foundation, Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) conducted extensive research examining the behaviour patterns of different trader categories. Their work, which analyzed over a decade of COT data across multiple commodity markets, revealed a fascinating dynamic that challenges much of what retail traders are taught. Commercial hedgers consistently positioned themselves against market extremes, buying when speculators were most bearish and selling when speculators reached peak bullishness. The contrarian positioning of commercials was not random noise but rather reflected their superior information about supply and demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, large speculators, primarily hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, exhibited strong trend-following behaviour that often amplified market moves beyond fundamental values. Small traders, the retail participants, consistently entered positions late in trends, frequently near turning points, making them reliable contrary indicators.
Wang (2003) extended this research by demonstrating that the predictive power of commercial positioning varies significantly across different commodity sectors. His analysis of agricultural commodities showed particularly strong forecasting ability, with commercial net positions explaining up to fifteen percent of return variance in subsequent weeks. This finding suggests that the informational advantages of hedgers are most pronounced in markets where physical supply and demand fundamentals dominate, as opposed to purely financial markets where information asymmetries are smaller. When a corn farmer hedges six months of expected harvest, that decision incorporates private observations about rainfall patterns, crop health, pest pressure, and local storage capacity that no distant analyst can match. When an oil refinery hedges crude oil purchases and gasoline sales simultaneously, the spread relationships reveal expectations about refining margins that reflect operational realities invisible in public data.
The theoretical mechanism underlying these empirical patterns relates to information asymmetry and different participant motivations. Commercial hedgers engage in futures markets not for speculative profit but to manage business risks. An agricultural producer selling forward six months of expected harvest is not making a bet on price direction but rather locking in revenue to facilitate financial planning and ensure business viability. However, this hedging activity necessarily incorporates private information about expected supply, inventory levels, weather conditions, and demand trends that the hedger observes through their commercial operations (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). When aggregated across many participants, this private information manifests in collective positioning.
Consider a gold mining company deciding how much forward production to hedge. Management must estimate ore grades, recovery rates, production costs, equipment reliability, labor availability, and dozens of other operational variables that determine whether locking in prices at current levels makes business sense. If the industry collectively hedges more aggressively than usual, it suggests either exceptional production expectations or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Either way, this positioning reveals information unavailable to speculators analyzing price charts and economic data. The hedger sees the physical reality behind the financial abstraction.
Large speculators operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Commodity Trading Advisors managing billions in assets typically employ systematic, trend-following strategies that respond to price momentum rather than fundamental supply and demand. When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to seventy dollars per barrel, these systems generate buy signals. As the rally continues to eighty dollars, position sizes increase. The strategy works brilliantly during sustained trends but becomes a liability at reversals. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the rally. At this point, they represent not smart money anticipating further gains but rather crowded money vulnerable to reversal. Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) documented this pattern across multiple energy markets, showing that extreme speculator positioning typically marked late-stage trend exhaustion rather than early-stage trend development.
Small traders, the retail participants who fall below reporting thresholds, display the weakest forecasting ability. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns, meaning their aggregate positioning served as a reliable contrary indicator. The explanation combines several factors. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, entering trends after mainstream media coverage when institutional participants are preparing to exit. Perhaps most importantly, they trade with emotion, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times.
At major turning points, the three groups often position opposite each other with commercials extremely bearish, large speculators extremely bullish, and small traders piling into longs at the last moment. These high-divergence environments frequently precede increased volatility and trend reversals. The insiders with business exposure quietly exit as the momentum traders hit maximum capacity and retail enthusiasm peaks. Within weeks, the reversal begins, and positions unwind in the opposite sequence.
FROM RAW DATA TO ACTIONABLE SIGNALS
The COT Index indicator operationalizes these academic findings into a practical trading tool accessible through TradingView. At its core, the indicator normalizes net positioning data onto a zero to one hundred scale, creating what we call the COT Index. This normalization is critical because absolute position sizes vary dramatically across different futures contracts and over time. A commercial trader holding fifty thousand contracts net long in crude oil might be extremely bullish by historical standards, or it might be quite neutral depending on the context of total market size and historical ranges. Raw position numbers mean nothing without context. The COT Index solves this problem by calculating where current positioning stands relative to its range over a specified lookback period, typically two hundred fifty-two weeks or approximately five years of weekly data.
The mathematical transformation follows the methodology originally popularized by legendary trader Larry Williams, though the underlying concept appears in statistical normalization techniques across many fields. For any given trader category, we calculate the highest and lowest net position values over the lookback period, establishing the historical range for that specific market and trader group. Current positioning is then expressed as a percentage of this range, where zero represents the most bearish positioning ever seen in the lookback window and one hundred represents the most bullish extreme. A reading of fifty indicates positioning exactly in the middle of the historical range, suggesting neither extreme optimism nor pessimism relative to recent history (Williams and Noseworthy, 2009).
This index-based approach allows for meaningful comparison across different markets and time periods, overcoming the scaling problems inherent in analyzing raw position data. A commercial index reading of eighty-five in gold carries the same interpretive meaning as an eighty-five reading in wheat or crude oil, even though the absolute position sizes differ by orders of magnitude. This standardization enables systematic analysis across entire futures portfolios rather than requiring market-specific expertise for each contract.
The lookback period selection involves a fundamental tradeoff between responsiveness and stability. Shorter lookback periods, perhaps one hundred twenty-six weeks or approximately two and a half years, make the index more sensitive to recent positioning changes. However, it also increases noise and produces more false signals. Longer lookback periods, perhaps five hundred weeks or approximately ten years, create smoother readings that filter short-term noise but become slower to recognize regime changes. The indicator settings allow users to adjust this parameter based on their trading timeframe, risk tolerance, and market characteristics.
UNDERSTANDING CFTC DATA STRUCTURES
The indicator supports both Legacy and Disaggregated COT report formats, reflecting the evolution of CFTC reporting standards over decades of market development. Legacy reports categorize market participants into three broad groups: commercial traders (hedgers with underlying business exposure), non-commercial traders (large speculators seeking profit without commercial interest), and non-reportable traders (small speculators below reporting thresholds). Each category brings distinct motivations and information advantages to the market (CFTC, 2020).
The Disaggregated reports, introduced in September 2009 for physical commodity markets, provide finer granularity by splitting participants into five categories (CFTC, 2009). Producer and merchant positions capture those actually producing, processing, or merchandising the physical commodity. Swap dealers represent financial intermediaries facilitating derivative transactions for clients. Managed money includes commodity trading advisors and hedge funds executing systematic or discretionary strategies. Other reportables encompasses diverse participants not fitting the main categories. Small traders remain as the fifth group, representing retail participation.
This enhanced categorization reveals nuances invisible in Legacy reports, particularly distinguishing between different types of institutional capital and their distinct behavioural patterns. The indicator automatically detects which report type is appropriate for each futures contract and adjusts the display accordingly.
Importantly, Disaggregated reports exist only for physical commodity futures. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans have Disaggregated reports because clear producer, merchant, and swap dealer categories exist. Energy commodities like crude oil and natural gas similarly have well-defined commercial hedger categories. Metals including gold, silver, and copper also receive Disaggregated treatment (CFTC, 2009). However, financial futures such as equity index futures, Treasury bond futures, and currency futures remain available only in Legacy format. The CFTC has indicated no plans to extend Disaggregated reporting to financial futures due to different market structures and participant categories in these instruments (CFTC, 2020).
THE BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION
Understanding which trader perspective to follow requires appreciation of their distinct trading styles, success rates, and psychological profiles. Commercial hedgers exhibit anticyclical behaviour rooted in their fundamental knowledge and business imperatives. When agricultural producers hedge forward sales during harvest season, they are not speculating on price direction but rather locking in revenue for crops they will harvest. Their business requires converting volatile commodity exposure into predictable cash flows to facilitate planning and ensure survival through difficult periods. Yet their aggregate positioning reveals valuable information because these hedging decisions incorporate private information about supply conditions, inventory levels, weather observations, and demand expectations that hedgers observe through their commercial operations (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992).
Consider a practical example from energy markets. Major oil companies continuously hedge portions of forward production based on price levels, operational costs, and financial planning needs. When crude oil trades at ninety dollars per barrel, they might aggressively hedge the next twelve months of production, locking in prices that provide comfortable profit margins above their extraction costs. This hedging appears as short positioning in COT reports. If oil rallies further to one hundred dollars, they hedge even more aggressively, viewing these prices as exceptional opportunities to secure revenue. Their short positioning grows increasingly extreme. To an outside observer watching only price charts, the rally suggests bullishness. But the commercial positioning reveals that the actual producers of oil find these prices attractive enough to lock in years of sales, suggesting skepticism about sustaining even higher levels. When the eventual reversal occurs and oil declines back to eighty dollars, the commercials who hedged at ninety and one hundred dollars profit while speculators who chased the rally suffer losses.
Large speculators or managed money traders operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Their systematic, momentum-driven strategies mean they amplify existing trends rather than anticipate reversals. Trend-following systems, the most common approach among large speculators, by definition require confirmation of trend through price momentum before entering positions (Sanders, Boris and Manfredo, 2004). When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to eighty dollars per barrel over several months, trend-following algorithms generate buy signals based on moving average crossovers, breakouts, and other momentum indicators. As the rally continues, position sizes increase according to the systematic rules.
However, this approach becomes a liability at turning points. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars after a sustained rally, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the move. At this point, their positioning does not predict continued strength. Rather, it often marks late-stage trend exhaustion. The psychological and mechanical explanation is straightforward. Trend followers by definition chase price momentum, entering positions after trends establish rather than anticipating them. Eventually, they become fully invested just as the trend nears completion, leaving no incremental buying power to sustain the rally. When the first signs of reversal appear, systematic stops trigger, creating a cascade of selling that accelerates the downturn.
Small traders consistently display the weakest track record across academic studies. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns in his analysis across multiple commodity markets. This result means that whatever small traders collectively do, the opposite typically proves profitable. The explanation for small trader underperformance combines several factors documented in behavioral finance literature. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, learning about commodity trends through mainstream media coverage that arrives after institutional participants have already positioned. Perhaps most importantly, retail traders are more susceptible to emotional decision-making, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times (Tharp, 2008).
SETTINGS, THRESHOLDS, AND SIGNAL GENERATION
The practical implementation of the COT Index requires understanding several key features and settings that users can adjust to match their trading style, timeframe, and risk tolerance. The lookback period determines the time window for calculating historical ranges. The default setting of two hundred fifty-two bars represents approximately one year on daily charts or five years on weekly charts, balancing responsiveness with stability. Conservative traders seeking only the most extreme, highest-probability signals might extend the lookback to five hundred bars or more. Aggressive traders seeking earlier entry and willing to accept more false positives might reduce it to one hundred twenty-six bars or even less for shorter-term applications.
The bullish and bearish thresholds define signal generation levels. Default settings of eighty and twenty respectively reflect academic research suggesting meaningful information content at these extremes. Readings above eighty indicate positioning in the top quintile of the historical range, representing genuine extremes rather than temporary fluctuations. Conversely, readings below twenty occupy the bottom quintile, indicating unusually bearish positioning (Briese, 2008).
However, traders must recognize that appropriate thresholds vary by market, trader category, and personal risk tolerance. Some futures markets exhibit wider positioning swings than others due to seasonal patterns, volatility characteristics, or participant behavior. Conservative traders seeking high-probability setups with fewer signals might raise thresholds to eighty-five and fifteen. Aggressive traders willing to accept more false positives for earlier entry could lower them to seventy-five and twenty-five.
The key is maintaining meaningful differentiation between bullish, neutral, and bearish zones. The default settings of eighty and twenty create a clear three-zone structure. Readings from zero to twenty represent bearish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bearish positions. Readings from twenty to eighty represent neutral territory where positioning falls within normal historical ranges. Readings from eighty to one hundred represent bullish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bullish positions.
The trading perspective selection determines which participant group the indicator follows, fundamentally shaping interpretation and signal meaning. For counter-trend traders seeking reversal opportunities, monitoring commercial positioning makes intuitive sense based on the academic research discussed earlier. When commercials reach extreme bearish readings below twenty, indicating unprecedented short positioning relative to recent history, they are effectively betting against the crowd. Given their informational advantages demonstrated by Bessembinder and Chan (1992), this contrarian stance often precedes major bottoms.
Trend followers might instead monitor large speculator positioning, but with inverted logic compared to commercials. When managed money reaches extreme bullish readings above eighty, the trend may be exhausting rather than accelerating. This seeming paradox reflects their late-cycle participation documented by Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004). Sophisticated traders thus use speculator extremes as fade signals, entering positions opposite to speculator consensus.
Small trader monitoring serves primarily as a contrary indicator for all trading styles. Extreme small trader bullishness above seventy-five or eighty typically warns of retail FOMO at market tops. Extreme small trader bearishness below twenty or twenty-five often marks capitulation bottoms where the last weak hands have sold.
VISUALIZATION AND USER INTERFACE
The visual design incorporates multiple elements working together to facilitate decision-making and maintain situational awareness during active trading. The primary COT Index line plots in bold with adjustable line width, defaulting to two pixels for clear visibility against busy price charts. An optional glow effect, controlled by a simple toggle, adds additional visual prominence through multiple plot layers with progressively increasing transparency and width.
A twenty-one period exponential moving average overlays the index line, providing trend context for positioning changes. When the index crosses above its moving average, it signals accelerating bullish sentiment among the selected trader group regardless of whether absolute positioning is extreme. Conversely, when the index crosses below its moving average, it signals deteriorating sentiment and potentially the beginning of a reversal in positioning trends.
The EMA provides a dynamic reference line for assessing positioning momentum. When the index trades far above its EMA, positioning is not only extreme in absolute terms but also building with momentum. When the index trades far below its EMA, positioning is contracting or reversing, which may indicate weakening conviction even if absolute levels remain elevated.
The data table positioned at the top right of the chart displays eleven metrics for each trader category, transforming the indicator from a simple index calculation into an analytical dashboard providing multidimensional market intelligence. Beyond the COT Index itself, users can monitor positioning extremity, which measures how unusual current levels are compared to historical norms using statistical techniques. The extremity metric clarifies whether a reading represents the ninety-fifth or ninety-ninth percentile, with values above two standard deviations indicating genuinely exceptional positioning.
Market power quantifies each group's influence on total open interest. This metric expresses each trader category's net position as a percentage of total market open interest. A commercial entity holding forty percent of total open interest commands significantly more influence than one holding five percent, making their positioning signals more meaningful.
Momentum and rate of change metrics reveal whether positions are building or contracting, providing early warning of potential regime shifts. Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative providing even earlier insight into inflection points.
Sentiment divergence highlights disagreements between commercial and speculative positioning. This metric calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available, showing how positioning is distributed among the largest handful of traders in each category. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation across many traders.
THE ALERT SYSTEM AND MONITORING
The alert system, comprising five distinct alert conditions, enables systematic monitoring of dozens of futures markets without constant screen watching. The bullish and bearish COT signal alerts trigger when the index crosses user-defined thresholds, indicating the selected trader group has reached extreme positioning worthy of attention. These alerts fire in real-time as new weekly COT data publishes, typically Friday afternoon following the Tuesday measurement date.
Extreme positioning alerts fire at ninety and ten index levels, representing the top and bottom ten percent of the historical range, warning of particularly stretched readings that historically precede reversals with high probability. When commercials reach a COT Index reading below ten, they are expressing their most bearish stance in the entire lookback period.
The data staleness alert notifies users when COT reports have not updated for more than ten days, preventing reliance on outdated information for trading decisions. Government shutdowns or federal holidays can interrupt the normal Friday publication schedule. Using stale signals while believing them current creates dangerous false confidence.
The indicator's watermark information display positioned in the bottom right corner provides essential context at a glance. This persistent display shows the symbol and timeframe, the COT report date timestamp, days since last update, and the current signal state. A trader analyzing a potential short entry in crude oil can glance at the watermark to instantly confirm positioning context without interrupting analysis flow.
LIMITATIONS AND REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Practical application requires understanding both the indicator's considerable strengths and inherent limitations. COT data inherently lags price action by three days, as Tuesday positions are not published until Friday afternoon. This delay means the indicator cannot catch rapid intraday reversals or respond to surprise news events. Traders using the COT Index for timing entries must accept this latency and focus on swing trading and position trading timeframes where three-day lags matter less than in day trading or scalping.
The weekly publication schedule similarly makes the indicator unsuitable for short-term trading strategies requiring immediate feedback. The COT Index works best for traders operating on weekly or longer timeframes, where positioning shifts measured in weeks and months align with trading horizon.
Extreme COT readings can persist far longer than typical technical indicators suggest, testing the patience and capital reserves of traders attempting to fade them. When crude oil enters a sustained bull market driven by genuine supply disruptions, commercial hedgers may maintain bearish positioning for many months as prices grind higher. A commercial COT Index reading of fifteen indicating extreme bearishness might persist for three months while prices continue rallying before finally reversing. Traders without sufficient capital and risk tolerance to weather such drawdowns will exit prematurely, precisely when the signal is about to work (Irwin and Sanders, 2012).
Position sizing discipline becomes paramount when implementing COT-based strategies. Rather than risking large percentages of capital on individual signals, successful COT traders typically allocate modest position sizes across multiple signals, allowing some to take time to mature while others work more quickly.
The indicator also cannot overcome fundamental regime changes that alter the structural drivers of markets. If gold enters a true secular bull market driven by monetary debasement, commercial hedgers may remain persistently bearish as mining companies sell forward years of production at what they perceive as favorable prices. Their positioning indicates valuation concerns from a production cost perspective, but cannot stop prices from rising if investment demand overwhelms physical supply-demand balance.
Similarly, structural changes in market participation can alter the meaning of positioning extremes. The growth of commodity index investing in the two thousands brought massive passive long-only capital into futures markets, fundamentally changing typical positioning ranges. Traders relying on COT signals without recognizing this regime change would have generated numerous false bearish signals during the commodity supercycle from 2003 to 2008.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis derives primarily from commodity markets where the commercial hedger information advantage is most pronounced. Studies specifically examining financial futures like equity indices and bonds show weaker but still present effects. Traders should calibrate expectations accordingly, recognizing that COT analysis likely works better for crude oil, natural gas, corn, and wheat than for the S&P 500, Treasury bonds, or currency futures.
Another important limitation involves the reporting threshold structure. Not all market participants appear in COT data, only those holding positions above specified minimums. In markets dominated by a few large players, concentration metrics become critical for proper interpretation. A single large trader accounting for thirty percent of commercial positioning might skew the entire category if their individual circumstances are idiosyncratic rather than representative.
GOLD FUTURES DURING A HYPOTHETICAL MARKET CYCLE
Consider a practical example using gold futures during a hypothetical but realistic market scenario that illustrates how the COT Index indicator guides trading decisions through a complete market cycle. Suppose gold has rallied from fifteen hundred to nineteen hundred dollars per ounce over six months, driven by inflation concerns following aggressive monetary expansion, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained buying by Asian central banks for reserve diversification.
Large speculators, operating primarily trend-following strategies, have accumulated increasingly bullish positions throughout this rally. Their COT Index has climbed progressively from forty-five to eighty-five. The table display shows that large speculators now hold net long positions representing thirty-two percent of total open interest, their highest in four years. Momentum indicators show positive readings, indicating positions are still building though at a decelerating rate. Position velocity has turned negative, suggesting the pace of position building is slowing.
Meanwhile, commercial hedgers have responded to the rally by aggressively selling forward production and inventory. Their COT Index has moved inversely to price, declining from fifty-five to twenty. This bearish commercial positioning represents mining companies locking in forward sales at prices they view as attractive relative to production costs. The table shows commercials now hold net short positions representing twenty-nine percent of total open interest, their most bearish stance in five years. Concentration metrics indicate this positioning is broadly distributed across many commercial entities, suggesting the bearish stance reflects collective industry view rather than idiosyncratic positioning by a single firm.
Small traders, attracted by mainstream financial media coverage of gold's impressive rally, have recently piled into long positions. Their COT Index has jumped from forty-five to seventy-eight as retail investors chase the trend. Television financial networks feature frequent segments on gold with bullish guests. Internet forums and social media show surging retail interest. This retail enthusiasm historically marks late-stage trend development rather than early opportunity.
The COT Index indicator, configured to monitor commercial positioning from a contrarian perspective, displays a clear bearish signal given the extreme commercial short positioning. The table displays multiple confirming metrics: positioning extremity shows commercials at the ninety-sixth percentile of bearishness, market power indicates they control twenty-nine percent of open interest, and sentiment divergence registers sixty-five, indicating massive disagreement between commercial hedgers and large speculators. This divergence, the highest in three years, places the market in the historically high-risk category for reversals.
The interpretation requires nuance and consideration of context beyond just COT data. Commercials are not necessarily predicting an imminent crash. Rather, they are hedging business operations at what they collectively view as favorable price levels. However, the data reveals they have sold unusually large quantities of forward production, suggesting either exceptional production expectations for the year ahead or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Combined with extreme speculator positioning indicating a crowded long trade, and small trader enthusiasm confirming retail FOMO, the confluence suggests elevated reversal risk even if the precise timing remains uncertain.
A prudent trader analyzing this situation might take several actions based on COT Index signals. Existing long positions could be tightened with closer stop losses. Profit-taking on a portion of long exposure could lock in gains while maintaining some participation. Some traders might initiate modest short positions as portfolio hedges, sizing them appropriately for the inherent uncertainty in timing reversals. Others might simply move to the sidelines, avoiding new long entries until positioning normalizes.
The key lesson from case study analysis is that COT signals provide probabilistic edges rather than deterministic predictions. They work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over time, yet still means forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. Traders must embrace this probabilistic reality rather than seeking the impossible goal of perfect accuracy.
INTEGRATION WITH TRADING SYSTEMS
Integration with existing trading systems represents a natural and powerful use case for COT analysis, adding a positioning dimension to price-based technical approaches or fundamental analytical frameworks. Few traders rely exclusively on a single indicator or methodology. Rather, they build systems that synthesize multiple information sources, with each component addressing different aspects of market behavior.
Trend followers might use COT extremes as regime filters, modifying position sizing or avoiding new trend entries when positioning reaches levels historically associated with reversals. Consider a classic trend-following system based on moving average crossovers and momentum breakouts. Integration of COT analysis adds nuance. When large speculator positioning exceeds ninety or commercial positioning falls below ten, the regime filter recognizes elevated reversal risk. The system might reduce position sizing by fifty percent for new signals during these high-risk periods (Kaufman, 2013).
Mean reversion traders might require COT signal confluence before fading extended moves. When crude oil becomes technically overbought and large speculators show extreme long positioning above eighty-five, both signals confirm. If only technical indicators show extremes while positioning remains neutral, the potential short signal is rejected, avoiding fades of trends with underlying institutional support (Kaufman, 2013).
Discretionary traders can monitor the indicator as a continuous awareness tool, informing bias and position sizing without dictating mechanical entries and exits. A discretionary trader might notice commercial positioning shifting from neutral to progressively more bullish over several months. This trend informs growing positive bias even without triggering mechanical signals.
Multi-timeframe analysis represents another powerful integration approach. A trader might use daily charts for trade execution and timing while monitoring weekly COT positioning for strategic context. When both timeframes align, highest-probability opportunities emerge.
Portfolio construction for futures traders can incorporate COT signals as an additional selection criterion. Markets showing strong technical setups AND favorable COT positioning receive highest allocations. Markets with strong technicals but neutral or unfavorable positioning receive reduced allocations.
ADVANCED METRICS AND INTERPRETATION
The metrics table transforms simple positioning data into multidimensional market intelligence. Position extremity, calculated as the absolute deviation from the historical mean normalized by standard deviation, helps identify truly unusual readings versus routine fluctuations. A reading above two standard deviations indicates ninety-fifth percentile or higher extremity. Above three standard deviations indicates ninety-ninth percentile or higher, genuinely rare positioning that historically precedes major events with high probability.
Market power, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, reveals whose positioning matters most from a mechanical market impact perspective. Consider two scenarios in gold futures. In scenario one, commercials show a COT Index reading of fifteen while their market power metric shows they hold net shorts representing thirty-five percent of open interest. This is a high-confidence bearish signal. In scenario two, commercials also show a reading of fifteen, but market power shows only eight percent. While positioning is extreme relative to this category's normal range, their limited market share means less mechanical influence on price.
The rate of change and momentum metrics highlight whether positions are accelerating or decelerating, often providing earlier warnings than absolute levels alone. A COT Index reading of seventy-five with rapidly building momentum suggests continued movement toward extremes. Conversely, a reading of eighty-five with decelerating or negative momentum indicates the positioning trend is exhausting.
Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative. When velocity shifts from positive to negative, it indicates that while positioning may still be growing, the pace of growth is slowing. This deceleration often precedes actual reversal in positioning direction by several weeks.
Sentiment divergence calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. When commercials show extreme bearish positioning at twenty while large speculators show extreme bullish positioning at eighty, the divergence reaches sixty, representing near-maximum disagreement. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals. The mechanism is intuitive. Extreme divergence indicates the informed hedgers and momentum-following speculators have positioned opposite each other with conviction. One group will prove correct and profit while the other proves incorrect and suffers losses. The resolution of this disagreement through price movement often involves volatility.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning within a category, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation. Broad-based positioning more reliably reflects collective market intelligence and industry consensus. If mining companies globally all independently decide to hedge aggressively at similar price levels, it suggests genuine industry-wide view about price valuations rather than circumstances specific to one firm.
DATA QUALITY AND RELIABILITY
The CFTC has maintained COT reporting in various forms since the nineteen twenties, providing nearly a century of positioning data across multiple market cycles. However, data quality and reporting standards have evolved substantially over this long period. Modern electronic reporting implemented in the late nineteen nineties and early two thousands significantly improved accuracy and timeliness compared to earlier paper-based systems.
Traders should understand that COT reports capture positions as of Tuesday's close each week. Markets remain open three additional days before publication on Friday afternoon, meaning the reported data is three days stale when received. During periods of rapid market movement or major news events, this lag can be significant. The indicator addresses this limitation by including timestamp information and staleness warnings.
The three-day lag creates particular challenges during extreme volatility episodes. Flash crashes, surprise central bank interventions, geopolitical shocks, and other high-impact events can completely transform market positioning within hours. Traders must exercise judgment about whether reported positioning remains relevant given intervening events.
Reporting thresholds also mean that not all market participants appear in disaggregated COT data. Traders holding positions below specified minimums aggregate into the non-reportable or small trader category. This aggregation affects different markets differently. In highly liquid contracts like crude oil with thousands of participants, reportable traders might represent seventy to eighty percent of open interest. In thinly traded contracts with only dozens of active participants, a few large reportable positions might represent ninety-five percent of open interest.
Another data quality consideration involves trader classification into categories. The CFTC assigns traders to commercial or non-commercial categories based on reported business purpose and activities. However, this process is not perfect. Some entities engage in both commercial and speculative activities, creating ambiguity about proper classification. The transition to Disaggregated reports attempted to address some of these ambiguities by creating more granular categories.
COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
Several alternative approaches to COT analysis exist in the trading community beyond the normalization methodology employed by this indicator. Some analysts focus on absolute position changes week-over-week rather than index-based normalization. This approach calculates the change in net positioning from one week to the next. The emphasis falls on momentum in positioning changes rather than absolute levels relative to history. This method potentially identifies regime shifts earlier but sacrifices cross-market comparability (Briese, 2008).
Other practitioners employ more complex statistical transformations including percentile rankings, z-score standardization, and machine learning classification algorithms. Ruan and Zhang (2018) demonstrated that machine learning models applied to COT data could achieve modest improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to simple threshold-based approaches. However, these gains came at the cost of interpretability and implementation complexity.
The COT Index indicator intentionally employs a relatively straightforward normalization methodology for several important reasons. First, transparency enhances user understanding and trust. Traders can verify calculations manually and develop intuitive feel for what different readings mean. Second, academic research suggests that most of the predictive power in COT data comes from extreme positioning levels rather than subtle patterns requiring complex statistical methods to detect. Third, robust methods that work consistently across many markets and time periods tend to be simpler rather than more complex, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data. Fourth, the complexity costs of implementation matter for retail traders without programming teams or computational infrastructure.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF COT TRADING
Trading based on COT data requires psychological fortitude that differs from momentum-based approaches. Contrarian positioning signals inherently mean betting against prevailing market sentiment and recent price action. When commercials reach extreme bearish positioning, prices have typically been rising, sometimes for extended periods. The price chart looks bullish, momentum indicators confirm strength, moving averages align positively. The COT signal says bet against all of this. This psychological difficulty explains why COT analysis remains underutilized relative to trend-following methods.
Human psychology strongly predisposes us toward extrapolation and recency bias. When prices rally for months, our pattern-matching brains naturally expect continued rally. The recent price action dominates our perception, overwhelming rational analysis about positioning extremes and historical probabilities. The COT signal asking us to sell requires overriding these powerful psychological impulses.
The indicator design attempts to support the required psychological discipline through several features. Clear threshold markers and signal states reduce ambiguity about when signals trigger. When the commercial index crosses below twenty, the signal is explicit and unambiguous. The background shifts to red, the signal label displays bearish, and alerts fire. This explicitness helps traders act on signals rather than waiting for additional confirmation that may never arrive.
The metrics table provides analytical justification for contrarian positions, helping traders maintain conviction during inevitable periods of adverse price movement. When a trader enters short positions based on extreme commercial bearish positioning but prices continue rallying for several weeks, doubt naturally emerges. The table display provides reassurance. Commercial positioning remains extremely bearish. Divergence remains high. The positioning thesis remains intact even though price action has not yet confirmed.
Alert functionality ensures traders do not miss signals due to inattention while also not requiring constant monitoring that can lead to emotional decision-making. Setting alerts for COT extremes enables a healthier relationship with markets. When meaningful signals occur, alerts notify them. They can then calmly assess the situation and execute planned responses.
However, no indicator design can completely overcome the psychological difficulty of contrarian trading. Some traders simply cannot maintain short positions while prices rally. For these traders, COT analysis might be better employed as an exit signal for long positions rather than an entry signal for shorts.
Ultimately, successful COT trading requires developing comfort with probabilistic thinking rather than certainty-seeking. The signals work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five or sixty percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over years, yet still means forty to forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. COT analysis provides genuine edge, but edge means probability advantage, not elimination of losing trades.
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTINUOUS LEARNING
The indicator provides extensive built-in educational resources through its documentation, detailed tooltips, and transparent calculations. However, mastering COT analysis requires study beyond any single tool or resource. Several excellent resources provide valuable extensions of the concepts covered in this guide.
Books and practitioner-focused monographs offer accessible entry points. Stephen Briese published The Commitments of Traders Bible in two thousand eight, offering detailed breakdowns of how different markets and trader categories behave (Briese, 2008). Briese's work stands out for its empirical focus and market-specific insights. Jack Schwager includes discussion of COT analysis within the broader context of market behavior in his book Market Sense and Nonsense (Schwager, 2012). Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods represents perhaps the most rigorous practitioner-focused text on systematic trading approaches including COT analysis (Kaufman, 2013).
Academic journal articles provide the rigorous statistical foundation underlying COT analysis. The Journal of Futures Markets regularly publishes research on positioning data and its predictive properties. Bessembinder and Chan's earlier work on systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets provides theoretical foundation (Bessembinder, 1992). Chang's examination of speculator returns provides historical context (Chang, 1985). Irwin and Sanders provide essential skeptical perspective in their two thousand twelve article (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). Wang's two thousand three article provides one of the most empirical analyses of COT data across multiple commodity markets (Wang, 2003).
Online resources extend beyond academic and book-length treatments. The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports in multiple formats. The explanatory materials section offers detailed documentation of report construction, category definitions, and historical methodology changes. Traders serious about COT analysis should read these official CFTC documents to understand exactly what they are analyzing.
Commercial COT data services such as Barchart provide enhanced visualization and analysis tools beyond raw CFTC data. TradingView's educational materials, published scripts library, and user community provide additional resources for exploring different approaches to COT analysis.
The key to mastering COT analysis lies not in finding a single definitive source but rather in building understanding through multiple perspectives and information sources. Academic research provides rigorous empirical foundation. Practitioner-focused books offer practical implementation insights. Direct engagement with data through systematic backtesting develops intuition about how positioning dynamics manifest across different market conditions.
SYNTHESIZING KNOWLEDGE INTO PRACTICE
The COT Index indicator represents the synthesis of academic research, trading experience, and software engineering into a practical tool accessible to retail traders equipped with nothing more than a TradingView account and willingness to learn. What once required expensive data subscriptions, custom programming capabilities, statistical software, and institutional resources now appears as a straightforward indicator requiring only basic parameter selection and modest study to understand. This democratization of institutional-grade analysis tools represents a broader trend in financial markets over recent decades.
Yet technology and data access alone provide no edge without understanding and discipline. Markets remain relentlessly efficient at eliminating edges that become too widely known and mechanically exploited. The COT Index indicator succeeds only when users invest time learning the underlying concepts, understand the limitations and probability distributions involved, and integrate signals thoughtfully into trading plans rather than applying them mechanically.
The academic research demonstrates conclusively that institutional positioning contains genuine information about future price movements, particularly at extremes where commercial hedgers are maximally bearish or bullish relative to historical norms. This informational content is neither perfect nor deterministic but rather probabilistic, providing edge over many observations through identification of higher-probability configurations. Bessembinder and Chan's finding that commercial positioning explained modest but significant variance in future returns illustrates this probabilistic nature perfectly (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992). The effect is real and statistically significant, yet it explains perhaps ten to fifteen percent of return variance rather than most variance. Much of price movement remains unpredictable even with positioning intelligence.
The practical implication is that COT analysis works best as one component of a trading system rather than a standalone oracle. It provides the positioning dimension, revealing where the smart money has positioned and where the crowd has followed, but price action analysis provides the timing dimension. Fundamental analysis provides the catalyst dimension. Risk management provides the survival dimension. These components work together synergistically.
The indicator's design philosophy prioritizes transparency and education over black-box complexity, empowering traders to understand exactly what they are analyzing and why. Every calculation is documented and user-adjustable. The threshold markers, background coloring, tables, and clear signal states provide multiple reinforcing channels for conveying the same information.
This educational approach reflects a conviction that sustainable trading success comes from genuine understanding rather than mechanical system-following. Traders who understand why commercial positioning matters, how different trader categories behave, what positioning extremes signify, and where signals fit within probability distributions can adapt when market conditions change. Traders mechanically following black-box signals without comprehension abandon systems after normal losing streaks.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis comes primarily from commodity markets where commercial hedger informational advantages are most pronounced. Agricultural producers hedging crops know more about supply conditions than distant speculators. Energy companies hedging production know more about operating costs than financial traders. Metals miners hedging output know more about ore grades than index funds. Financial futures markets show weaker but still present effects.
The journey from reading this documentation to profitable trading based on COT analysis involves several stages that cannot be rushed. Initial reading and basic understanding represents the first stage. Historical study represents the second stage, reviewing past market cycles to observe how positioning extremes preceded major turning points. Paper trading or small-size real trading represents the third stage to experience the psychological challenges. Refinement based on results and personal psychology represents the fourth stage.
Markets will continue evolving. New participant categories will emerge. Regulatory structures will change. Technology will advance. Yet the fundamental dynamics driving COT analysis, that different market participants have different information, different motivations, and different forecasting abilities that manifest in their positioning, will persist as long as futures markets exist. While specific thresholds or optimal parameters may shift over time, the core logic remains sound and adaptable.
The trader equipped with this indicator, understanding of the theory and evidence behind COT analysis, realistic expectations about probability rather than certainty, discipline to maintain positions through adverse volatility, and patience to allow signals time to develop possesses genuine edge in markets. The edge is not enormous, markets cannot allow large persistent inefficiencies without arbitraging them away, but it is real, measurable, and exploitable by those willing to invest in learning and disciplined application.
REFERENCES
Bessembinder, H. (1992) Systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets, Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), pp. 637-667.
Bessembinder, H. and Chan, K. (1992) The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(2-3), pp. 257-284.
Briese, S. (2008) The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Chang, E.C. (1985) Returns to speculators and the theory of normal backwardation, Journal of Finance, 40(1), pp. 193-208.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2009) Explanatory Notes: Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2020) Commitments of Traders: About the Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Irwin, S.H. and Sanders, D.R. (2012) Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 256-269.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013) Trading Systems and Methods. 5th edn. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Ruan, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2018) Forecasting commodity futures prices using machine learning: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market, Applied Economics Letters, 25(12), pp. 845-849.
Sanders, D.R., Boris, K. and Manfredo, M. (2004) Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, Energy Economics, 26(3), pp. 425-445.
Schwager, J.D. (2012) Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work and How They Don't. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Tharp, V.K. (2008) Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Wang, C. (2003) The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders, Journal of Futures Markets, 23(1), pp. 1-31.
Williams, L.R. and Noseworthy, M. (2009) The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
FURTHER READING
For traders seeking to deepen their understanding of COT analysis and futures market positioning beyond this documentation, the following resources provide valuable extensions:
Academic Journal Articles:
Fishe, R.P.H. and Smith, A. (2012) Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?, Journal of Commodity Markets, 1(1), pp. 1-16.
Haigh, M.S., Hranaiova, J. and Overdahl, J.A. (2007) Hedge funds, volatility, and liquidity provision in energy futures markets, Journal of Alternative Investments, 9(4), pp. 10-38.
Kocagil, A.E. (1997) Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), pp. 115-125.
Sanders, D.R. and Irwin, S.H. (2011) The impact of index funds in commodity futures markets: A systems approach, Journal of Alternative Investments, 14(1), pp. 40-49.
Books and Practitioner Resources:
Murphy, J.J. (1999) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Pring, M.J. (2002) Technical Analysis Explained: The Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points. 4th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Federal Reserve and Research Institution Publications:
Federal Reserve Banks regularly publish working papers examining commodity markets, futures positioning, and price discovery mechanisms. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City maintain active research programs in this area.
Online Resources:
The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports, explanatory materials, and regulatory documentation.
Barchart offers enhanced COT data visualization and screening tools.
TradingView's community library contains numerous published scripts and educational materials exploring different approaches to positioning analysis.
Small Business Economic Conditions - Statistical Analysis ModelThe Small Business Economic Conditions Statistical Analysis Model (SBO-SAM) represents an econometric approach to measuring and analyzing the economic health of small business enterprises through multi-dimensional factor analysis and statistical methodologies. This indicator synthesizes eight fundamental economic components into a composite index that provides real-time assessment of small business operating conditions with statistical rigor. The model employs Z-score standardization, variance-weighted aggregation, higher-order moment analysis, and regime-switching detection to deliver comprehensive insights into small business economic conditions with statistical confidence intervals and multi-language accessibility.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Foundation
The development of quantitative models for assessing small business economic conditions has gained significant importance in contemporary financial analysis, particularly given the critical role small enterprises play in economic development and employment generation. Small businesses, typically defined as enterprises with fewer than 500 employees according to the U.S. Small Business Administration, constitute approximately 99.9% of all businesses in the United States and employ nearly half of the private workforce (U.S. Small Business Administration, 2024).
The theoretical framework underlying the SBO-SAM model draws extensively from established academic research in small business economics and quantitative finance. The foundational understanding of key drivers affecting small business performance builds upon the seminal work of Dunkelberg and Wade (2023) in their analysis of small business economic trends through the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Economic Trends survey. Their research established the critical importance of optimism, hiring plans, capital expenditure intentions, and credit availability as primary determinants of small business performance.
The model incorporates insights from Federal Reserve Board research, particularly the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (Federal Reserve Board, 2024), which demonstrates the critical importance of credit market conditions in small business operations. This research consistently shows that small businesses face disproportionate challenges during periods of credit tightening, as they typically lack access to capital markets and rely heavily on bank financing.
The statistical methodology employed in this model follows the econometric principles established by Hamilton (1989) in his work on regime-switching models and time series analysis. Hamilton's framework provides the theoretical foundation for identifying different economic regimes and understanding how economic relationships may vary across different market conditions. The variance-weighted aggregation technique draws from modern portfolio theory as developed by Markowitz (1952) and later refined by Sharpe (1964), applying these concepts to economic indicator construction rather than traditional asset allocation.
Additional theoretical support comes from the work of Engle and Granger (1987) on cointegration analysis, which provides the statistical framework for combining multiple time series while maintaining long-term equilibrium relationships. The model also incorporates insights from behavioral economics research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) on prospect theory, recognizing that small business decision-making may exhibit systematic biases that affect economic outcomes.
2. Model Architecture and Component Structure
The SBO-SAM model employs eight orthogonalized economic factors that collectively capture the multifaceted nature of small business operating conditions. Each component is normalized using Z-score standardization with a rolling 252-day window, representing approximately one business year of trading data. This approach ensures statistical consistency across different market regimes and economic cycles, following the methodology established by Tsay (2010) in his treatment of financial time series analysis.
2.1 Small Cap Relative Performance Component
The first component measures the performance of the Russell 2000 index relative to the S&P 500, capturing the market-based assessment of small business equity valuations. This component reflects investor sentiment toward smaller enterprises and provides a forward-looking perspective on small business prospects. The theoretical justification for this component stems from the efficient market hypothesis as formulated by Fama (1970), which suggests that stock prices incorporate all available information about future prospects.
The calculation employs a 20-day rate of change with exponential smoothing to reduce noise while preserving signal integrity. The mathematical formulation is:
Small_Cap_Performance = (Russell_2000_t / S&P_500_t) / (Russell_2000_{t-20} / S&P_500_{t-20}) - 1
This relative performance measure eliminates market-wide effects and isolates the specific performance differential between small and large capitalization stocks, providing a pure measure of small business market sentiment.
2.2 Credit Market Conditions Component
Credit Market Conditions constitute the second component, incorporating commercial lending volumes and credit spread dynamics. This factor recognizes that small businesses are particularly sensitive to credit availability and borrowing costs, as established in numerous Federal Reserve studies (Bernanke and Gertler, 1995). Small businesses typically face higher borrowing costs and more stringent lending standards compared to larger enterprises, making credit conditions a critical determinant of their operating environment.
The model calculates credit spreads using high-yield bond ETFs relative to Treasury securities, providing a market-based measure of credit risk premiums that directly affect small business borrowing costs. The component also incorporates commercial and industrial loan growth data from the Federal Reserve's H.8 statistical release, which provides direct evidence of lending activity to businesses.
The mathematical specification combines these elements as:
Credit_Conditions = α₁ × (HYG_t / TLT_t) + α₂ × C&I_Loan_Growth_t
where HYG represents high-yield corporate bond ETF prices, TLT represents long-term Treasury ETF prices, and C&I_Loan_Growth represents the rate of change in commercial and industrial loans outstanding.
2.3 Labor Market Dynamics Component
The Labor Market Dynamics component captures employment cost pressures and labor availability metrics through the relationship between job openings and unemployment claims. This factor acknowledges that labor market tightness significantly impacts small business operations, as these enterprises typically have less flexibility in wage negotiations and face greater challenges in attracting and retaining talent during periods of low unemployment.
The theoretical foundation for this component draws from search and matching theory as developed by Mortensen and Pissarides (1994), which explains how labor market frictions affect employment dynamics. Small businesses often face higher search costs and longer hiring processes, making them particularly sensitive to labor market conditions.
The component is calculated as:
Labor_Tightness = Job_Openings_t / (Unemployment_Claims_t × 52)
This ratio provides a measure of labor market tightness, with higher values indicating greater difficulty in finding workers and potential wage pressures.
2.4 Consumer Demand Strength Component
Consumer Demand Strength represents the fourth component, combining consumer sentiment data with retail sales growth rates. Small businesses are disproportionately affected by consumer spending patterns, making this component crucial for assessing their operating environment. The theoretical justification comes from the permanent income hypothesis developed by Friedman (1957), which explains how consumer spending responds to both current conditions and future expectations.
The model weights consumer confidence and actual spending data to provide both forward-looking sentiment and contemporaneous demand indicators. The specification is:
Demand_Strength = β₁ × Consumer_Sentiment_t + β₂ × Retail_Sales_Growth_t
where β₁ and β₂ are determined through principal component analysis to maximize the explanatory power of the combined measure.
2.5 Input Cost Pressures Component
Input Cost Pressures form the fifth component, utilizing producer price index data to capture inflationary pressures on small business operations. This component is inversely weighted, recognizing that rising input costs negatively impact small business profitability and operating conditions. Small businesses typically have limited pricing power and face challenges in passing through cost increases to customers, making them particularly vulnerable to input cost inflation.
The theoretical foundation draws from cost-push inflation theory as described by Gordon (1988), which explains how supply-side price pressures affect business operations. The model employs a 90-day rate of change to capture medium-term cost trends while filtering out short-term volatility:
Cost_Pressure = -1 × (PPI_t / PPI_{t-90} - 1)
The negative weighting reflects the inverse relationship between input costs and business conditions.
2.6 Monetary Policy Impact Component
Monetary Policy Impact represents the sixth component, incorporating federal funds rates and yield curve dynamics. Small businesses are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes due to their higher reliance on variable-rate financing and limited access to capital markets. The theoretical foundation comes from monetary transmission mechanism theory as developed by Bernanke and Blinder (1992), which explains how monetary policy affects different segments of the economy.
The model calculates the absolute deviation of federal funds rates from a neutral 2% level, recognizing that both extremely low and high rates can create operational challenges for small enterprises. The yield curve component captures the shape of the term structure, which affects both borrowing costs and economic expectations:
Monetary_Impact = γ₁ × |Fed_Funds_Rate_t - 2.0| + γ₂ × (10Y_Yield_t - 2Y_Yield_t)
2.7 Currency Valuation Effects Component
Currency Valuation Effects constitute the seventh component, measuring the impact of US Dollar strength on small business competitiveness. A stronger dollar can benefit businesses with significant import components while disadvantaging exporters. The model employs Dollar Index volatility as a proxy for currency-related uncertainty that affects small business planning and operations.
The theoretical foundation draws from international trade theory and the work of Krugman (1987) on exchange rate effects on different business segments. Small businesses often lack hedging capabilities, making them more vulnerable to currency fluctuations:
Currency_Impact = -1 × DXY_Volatility_t
2.8 Regional Banking Health Component
The eighth and final component, Regional Banking Health, assesses the relative performance of regional banks compared to large financial institutions. Regional banks traditionally serve as primary lenders to small businesses, making their health a critical factor in small business credit availability and overall operating conditions.
This component draws from the literature on relationship banking as developed by Boot (2000), which demonstrates the importance of bank-borrower relationships, particularly for small enterprises. The calculation compares regional bank performance to large financial institutions:
Banking_Health = (Regional_Banks_Index_t / Large_Banks_Index_t) - 1
3. Statistical Methodology and Advanced Analytics
The model employs statistical techniques to ensure robustness and reliability. Z-score normalization is applied to each component using rolling 252-day windows, providing standardized measures that remain consistent across different time periods and market conditions. This approach follows the methodology established by Engle and Granger (1987) in their cointegration analysis framework.
3.1 Variance-Weighted Aggregation
The composite index calculation utilizes variance-weighted aggregation, where component weights are determined by the inverse of their historical variance. This approach, derived from modern portfolio theory, ensures that more stable components receive higher weights while reducing the impact of highly volatile factors. The mathematical formulation follows the principle that optimal weights are inversely proportional to variance, maximizing the signal-to-noise ratio of the composite indicator.
The weight for component i is calculated as:
w_i = (1/σᵢ²) / Σⱼ(1/σⱼ²)
where σᵢ² represents the variance of component i over the lookback period.
3.2 Higher-Order Moment Analysis
Higher-order moment analysis extends beyond traditional mean and variance calculations to include skewness and kurtosis measurements. Skewness provides insight into the asymmetry of the sentiment distribution, while kurtosis measures the tail behavior and potential for extreme events. These metrics offer valuable information about the underlying distribution characteristics and potential regime changes.
Skewness is calculated as:
Skewness = E / σ³
Kurtosis is calculated as:
Kurtosis = E / σ⁴ - 3
where μ represents the mean and σ represents the standard deviation of the distribution.
3.3 Regime-Switching Detection
The model incorporates regime-switching detection capabilities based on the Hamilton (1989) framework. This allows for identification of different economic regimes characterized by distinct statistical properties. The regime classification employs percentile-based thresholds:
- Regime 3 (Very High): Percentile rank > 80
- Regime 2 (High): Percentile rank 60-80
- Regime 1 (Moderate High): Percentile rank 50-60
- Regime 0 (Neutral): Percentile rank 40-50
- Regime -1 (Moderate Low): Percentile rank 30-40
- Regime -2 (Low): Percentile rank 20-30
- Regime -3 (Very Low): Percentile rank < 20
3.4 Information Theory Applications
The model incorporates information theory concepts, specifically Shannon entropy measurement, to assess the information content of the sentiment distribution. Shannon entropy, as developed by Shannon (1948), provides a measure of the uncertainty or information content in a probability distribution:
H(X) = -Σᵢ p(xᵢ) log₂ p(xᵢ)
Higher entropy values indicate greater unpredictability and information content in the sentiment series.
3.5 Long-Term Memory Analysis
The Hurst exponent calculation provides insight into the long-term memory characteristics of the sentiment series. Originally developed by Hurst (1951) for analyzing Nile River flow patterns, this measure has found extensive application in financial time series analysis. The Hurst exponent H is calculated using the rescaled range statistic:
H = log(R/S) / log(T)
where R/S represents the rescaled range and T represents the time period. Values of H > 0.5 indicate long-term positive autocorrelation (persistence), while H < 0.5 indicates mean-reverting behavior.
3.6 Structural Break Detection
The model employs Chow test approximation for structural break detection, based on the methodology developed by Chow (1960). This technique identifies potential structural changes in the underlying relationships by comparing the stability of regression parameters across different time periods:
Chow_Statistic = (RSS_restricted - RSS_unrestricted) / RSS_unrestricted × (n-2k)/k
where RSS represents residual sum of squares, n represents sample size, and k represents the number of parameters.
4. Implementation Parameters and Configuration
4.1 Language Selection Parameters
The model provides comprehensive multi-language support across five languages: English, German (Deutsch), Spanish (Español), French (Français), and Japanese (日本語). This feature enhances accessibility for international users and ensures cultural appropriateness in terminology usage. The language selection affects all internal displays, statistical classifications, and alert messages while maintaining consistency in underlying calculations.
4.2 Model Configuration Parameters
Calculation Method: Users can select from four aggregation methodologies:
- Equal-Weighted: All components receive identical weights
- Variance-Weighted: Components weighted inversely to their historical variance
- Principal Component: Weights determined through principal component analysis
- Dynamic: Adaptive weighting based on recent performance
Sector Specification: The model allows for sector-specific calibration:
- General: Broad-based small business assessment
- Retail: Emphasis on consumer demand and seasonal factors
- Manufacturing: Enhanced weighting of input costs and currency effects
- Services: Focus on labor market dynamics and consumer demand
- Construction: Emphasis on credit conditions and monetary policy
Lookback Period: Statistical analysis window ranging from 126 to 504 trading days, with 252 days (one business year) as the optimal default based on academic research.
Smoothing Period: Exponential moving average period from 1 to 21 days, with 5 days providing optimal noise reduction while preserving signal integrity.
4.3 Statistical Threshold Parameters
Upper Statistical Boundary: Configurable threshold between 60-80 (default 70) representing the upper significance level for regime classification.
Lower Statistical Boundary: Configurable threshold between 20-40 (default 30) representing the lower significance level for regime classification.
Statistical Significance Level (α): Alpha level for statistical tests, configurable between 0.01-0.10 with 0.05 as the standard academic default.
4.4 Display and Visualization Parameters
Color Theme Selection: Eight professional color schemes optimized for different user preferences and accessibility requirements:
- Gold: Traditional financial industry colors
- EdgeTools: Professional blue-gray scheme
- Behavioral: Psychology-based color mapping
- Quant: Value-based quantitative color scheme
- Ocean: Blue-green maritime theme
- Fire: Warm red-orange theme
- Matrix: Green-black technology theme
- Arctic: Cool blue-white theme
Dark Mode Optimization: Automatic color adjustment for dark chart backgrounds, ensuring optimal readability across different viewing conditions.
Line Width Configuration: Main index line thickness adjustable from 1-5 pixels for optimal visibility.
Background Intensity: Transparency control for statistical regime backgrounds, adjustable from 90-99% for subtle visual enhancement without distraction.
4.5 Alert System Configuration
Alert Frequency Options: Three frequency settings to match different trading styles:
- Once Per Bar: Single alert per bar formation
- Once Per Bar Close: Alert only on confirmed bar close
- All: Continuous alerts for real-time monitoring
Statistical Extreme Alerts: Notifications when the index reaches 99% confidence levels (Z-score > 2.576 or < -2.576).
Regime Transition Alerts: Notifications when statistical boundaries are crossed, indicating potential regime changes.
5. Practical Application and Interpretation Guidelines
5.1 Index Interpretation Framework
The SBO-SAM index operates on a 0-100 scale with statistical normalization ensuring consistent interpretation across different time periods and market conditions. Values above 70 indicate statistically elevated small business conditions, suggesting favorable operating environment with potential for expansion and growth. Values below 30 indicate statistically reduced conditions, suggesting challenging operating environment with potential constraints on business activity.
The median reference line at 50 represents the long-term equilibrium level, with deviations providing insight into cyclical conditions relative to historical norms. The statistical confidence bands at 95% levels (approximately ±2 standard deviations) help identify when conditions reach statistically significant extremes.
5.2 Regime Classification System
The model employs a seven-level regime classification system based on percentile rankings:
Very High Regime (P80+): Exceptional small business conditions, typically associated with strong economic growth, easy credit availability, and favorable regulatory environment. Historical analysis suggests these periods often precede economic peaks and may warrant caution regarding sustainability.
High Regime (P60-80): Above-average conditions supporting business expansion and investment. These periods typically feature moderate growth, stable credit conditions, and positive consumer sentiment.
Moderate High Regime (P50-60): Slightly above-normal conditions with mixed signals. Careful monitoring of individual components helps identify emerging trends.
Neutral Regime (P40-50): Balanced conditions near long-term equilibrium. These periods often represent transition phases between different economic cycles.
Moderate Low Regime (P30-40): Slightly below-normal conditions with emerging headwinds. Early warning signals may appear in credit conditions or consumer demand.
Low Regime (P20-30): Below-average conditions suggesting challenging operating environment. Businesses may face constraints on growth and expansion.
Very Low Regime (P0-20): Severely constrained conditions, typically associated with economic recessions or financial crises. These periods often present opportunities for contrarian positioning.
5.3 Component Analysis and Diagnostics
Individual component analysis provides valuable diagnostic information about the underlying drivers of overall conditions. Divergences between components can signal emerging trends or structural changes in the economy.
Credit-Labor Divergence: When credit conditions improve while labor markets tighten, this may indicate early-stage economic acceleration with potential wage pressures.
Demand-Cost Divergence: Strong consumer demand coupled with rising input costs suggests inflationary pressures that may constrain small business margins.
Market-Fundamental Divergence: Disconnection between small-cap equity performance and fundamental conditions may indicate market inefficiencies or changing investor sentiment.
5.4 Temporal Analysis and Trend Identification
The model provides multiple temporal perspectives through momentum analysis, rate of change calculations, and trend decomposition. The 20-day momentum indicator helps identify short-term directional changes, while the Hodrick-Prescott filter approximation separates cyclical components from long-term trends.
Acceleration analysis through second-order momentum calculations provides early warning signals for potential trend reversals. Positive acceleration during declining conditions may indicate approaching inflection points, while negative acceleration during improving conditions may suggest momentum loss.
5.5 Statistical Confidence and Uncertainty Quantification
The model provides comprehensive uncertainty quantification through confidence intervals, volatility measures, and regime stability analysis. The 95% confidence bands help users understand the statistical significance of current readings and identify when conditions reach historically extreme levels.
Volatility analysis provides insight into the stability of current conditions, with higher volatility indicating greater uncertainty and potential for rapid changes. The regime stability measure, calculated as the inverse of volatility, helps assess the sustainability of current conditions.
6. Risk Management and Limitations
6.1 Model Limitations and Assumptions
The SBO-SAM model operates under several important assumptions that users must understand for proper interpretation. The model assumes that historical relationships between economic variables remain stable over time, though the regime-switching framework helps accommodate some structural changes. The 252-day lookback period provides reasonable statistical power while maintaining sensitivity to changing conditions, but may not capture longer-term structural shifts.
The model's reliance on publicly available economic data introduces inherent lags in some components, particularly those based on government statistics. Users should consider these timing differences when interpreting real-time conditions. Additionally, the model's focus on quantitative factors may not fully capture qualitative factors such as regulatory changes, geopolitical events, or technological disruptions that could significantly impact small business conditions.
The model's timeframe restrictions ensure statistical validity by preventing application to intraday periods where the underlying economic relationships may be distorted by market microstructure effects, trading noise, and temporal misalignment with the fundamental data sources. Users must utilize daily or longer timeframes to ensure the model's statistical foundations remain valid and interpretable.
6.2 Data Quality and Reliability Considerations
The model's accuracy depends heavily on the quality and availability of underlying economic data. Market-based components such as equity indices and bond prices provide real-time information but may be subject to short-term volatility unrelated to fundamental conditions. Economic statistics provide more stable fundamental information but may be subject to revisions and reporting delays.
Users should be aware that extreme market conditions may temporarily distort some components, particularly those based on financial market data. The model's statistical normalization helps mitigate these effects, but users should exercise additional caution during periods of market stress or unusual volatility.
6.3 Interpretation Caveats and Best Practices
The SBO-SAM model provides statistical analysis and should not be interpreted as investment advice or predictive forecasting. The model's output represents an assessment of current conditions based on historical relationships and may not accurately predict future outcomes. Users should combine the model's insights with other analytical tools and fundamental analysis for comprehensive decision-making.
The model's regime classifications are based on historical percentile rankings and may not fully capture the unique characteristics of current economic conditions. Users should consider the broader economic context and potential structural changes when interpreting regime classifications.
7. Academic References and Bibliography
Bernanke, B. S., & Blinder, A. S. (1992). The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission. American Economic Review, 82(4), 901-921.
Bernanke, B. S., & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 27-48.
Boot, A. W. A. (2000). Relationship Banking: What Do We Know? Journal of Financial Intermediation, 9(1), 7-25.
Chow, G. C. (1960). Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions. Econometrica, 28(3), 591-605.
Dunkelberg, W. C., & Wade, H. (2023). NFIB Small Business Economic Trends. National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation, Washington, D.C.
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
Federal Reserve Board. (2024). Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C.
Friedman, M. (1957). A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Gordon, R. J. (1988). The Role of Wages in the Inflation Process. American Economic Review, 78(2), 276-283.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.
Hurst, H. E. (1951). Long-term Storage Capacity of Reservoirs. Transactions of the American Society of Civil Engineers, 116(1), 770-799.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Krugman, P. (1987). Pricing to Market When the Exchange Rate Changes. In S. W. Arndt & J. D. Richardson (Eds.), Real-Financial Linkages among Open Economies (pp. 49-70). MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Mortensen, D. T., & Pissarides, C. A. (1994). Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment. Review of Economic Studies, 61(3), 397-415.
Shannon, C. E. (1948). A Mathematical Theory of Communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379-423.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Tsay, R. S. (2010). Analysis of Financial Time Series (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ.
U.S. Small Business Administration. (2024). Small Business Profile. Office of Advocacy, Washington, D.C.
8. Technical Implementation Notes
The SBO-SAM model is implemented in Pine Script version 6 for the TradingView platform, ensuring compatibility with modern charting and analysis tools. The implementation follows best practices for financial indicator development, including proper error handling, data validation, and performance optimization.
The model includes comprehensive timeframe validation to ensure statistical accuracy and reliability. The indicator operates exclusively on daily (1D) timeframes or higher, including weekly (1W), monthly (1M), and longer periods. This restriction ensures that the statistical analysis maintains appropriate temporal resolution for the underlying economic data sources, which are primarily reported on daily or longer intervals.
When users attempt to apply the model to intraday timeframes (such as 1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 8-hour, or 12-hour charts), the system displays a comprehensive error message in the user's selected language and prevents execution. This safeguard protects users from potentially misleading results that could occur when applying daily-based economic analysis to shorter timeframes where the underlying data relationships may not hold.
The model's statistical calculations are performed using vectorized operations where possible to ensure computational efficiency. The multi-language support system employs Unicode character encoding to ensure proper display of international characters across different platforms and devices.
The alert system utilizes TradingView's native alert functionality, providing users with flexible notification options including email, SMS, and webhook integrations. The alert messages include comprehensive statistical information to support informed decision-making.
The model's visualization system employs professional color schemes designed for optimal readability across different chart backgrounds and display devices. The system includes dynamic color transitions based on momentum and volatility, professional glow effects for enhanced line visibility, and transparency controls that allow users to customize the visual intensity to match their preferences and analytical requirements. The clean confidence band implementation provides clear statistical boundaries without visual distractions, maintaining focus on the analytical content.
Fibonacci Snap Tool [TradersPro]
OVERVIEW
The Fibonacci Snap tool automatically snaps to the swing high and swing low of the price data shown on the chart display. Fibonacci retracement levels can be used for entry, exit, or as a confirmation of trend continuation.
If the swing high on the chart comes before the swing low, the price is in a downtrend.If the swing high comes after the swing low, the price is in an uptrend.
We call the 23.60% Fibonacci level the momentum zone of the trend. Price in a solid trend, either up or down, will typically hold the 23.60% Fibonacci level as support (demand) in an uptrend or resistance (supply) in a downtrend.
Deeper Fibonacci levels of 38.20%, 50.00%, and 61.80% are corrective supply/demand zones. As price moves against the found trend, it can move into this range block we call the corrective zone.
Fibonacci retracement levels are used to identify potential supply/demand areas where price could reverse or consolidate. These levels are based on key ratios derived from the Fibonacci sequence, and we only use the core 23.60%, 38.20%, 50.00%, and 61.80% ratios.
CONCEPTS
Price action moves in trend cycles, these retracement levels help traders measure proportional relationships between the high/low swings in the price trend.
When a price trend is moving against the trend, traders can find opportunities to trade with the current trend at key Fibonacci levels. Fibonacci levels can be used to anticipate where price might find supply/demand imbalance and continue moving in the trend direction.
Traders apply the indicator by selecting a window of price they want to analyze in the chart display, and the Fibonacci Snap tool will snap to the high and low of the visible price display.
The Intent and Use of This Tool
The 23.60% level acts as a momentum or continuation of trend. The 38.20% to 61.80% range are corrective zones of the trend.
The 61.80% level, also known as the golden ratio (Google the term “Golden Ratio”; it's fun), can often represent the location of supply/demand imbalance.
In an uptrend, it can represent the area of no more selling supply, and the balance can shift to buying demand. In a downtrend, it can represent the area of no more buying demand and the balance can shift to selling supply.
When used with the Momentum Zones indicator, these two tools create a powerful combination for traders to find, implement, and manage trades.
Trading BehnamI've read around here various definitions for engulfs along the lines of "an engulf consumes all orders at a level to allow price to easily pass through it." . That doesn't make much sense to me, if the guys with billions of dollars want to break a level, they will break it and price will run off very often. We've seen it time and time again, they don't need to engulf levels to give us a nice opportunity to get into the trade with them, if they want to blast through a level, they will do so and price will run off. If they want an opportunity to accumulate more orders before price runs away, then it doesn't make sense to engulf the level, better to let price bounce from that level and then fill more orders, if the level breaks then they have to deliberately stop the market running away and move it back to the pre-engulf area as the market momentum would naturally make it run off after an engulf. Other ideas about it being a secret signal between the institutions don't make sense to me either. To be honest, I think any secret signals between competing institutions come in the form of them in a heavily encrypted chatroom telling each other what to do. This collusion has been reported on previously as traders align their activities at important moments.
So I think we can all agree something along the lines of:
Fakeout:
Fakeout is an engulf of an obvious swing high/low in order to stop out traders and induce breakout traders to trade in the wrong direction, thus generating liquidity for the move in the opposite direction.
What's not so clear is the definition of the engulf, I'd like to try to give some ideas on the purpose of the engulf and it's definition and see what others think.
Engulf:
An engulf is the consumption of orders at an important level, not necessarily a swing/high low but an area where we expect to see supply or demand. Taking out of the orders tells us that the supply or demand which was or should have been present is now not present and tells us the intent direction of the market. If price runs off as is often the case, this is not tradeable and is effectively just a "breakout", although breakouts are usually considered to be breaks of swing high and lows which are obvious to the average trader. For an engulf to be tradeable there must be a retrace following the engulf back in the original direction. This adds confusion as it initially resembles a fakeout. So the question is, why does price retrace after the engulf? If an engulf to the short side is a genuine engulf and not a fakeout to generate long liquidity, why does it not travel immediately south if market momentum is ultimately south.
A small pocket of demand beneath the engulfed level may make it retrace north as price moves between areas of liquidity, this pocket of demand may give price enough momentum to make it back up to the supply which broke the demand level if key market participants do not favour an immediate market drop.
Alternatively key market participants may step in and drive the market back upwards.
Price moving north back to supply after the engulf may occur or be favourable for various reasons:
1) We often talk about FO generating liquidity because of breakout trading, but an engulf can also generate liquidity from breakout traders. Short breakout traders would place their stop losses a small distance above the engulf (breakout). If key players absorb this selling or allow a demand level to push price back up, they can run price back up to supply taking out the stops of the breakout short traders and make quick profit and/or generate more liquidity for their own shorts.
2) To confuse traders, the ITs don't want the puzzle that is Forex to be easy to solve, if price never retraced after an engulf then engulfs of all levels would be FOs. Price would either break and immediately runoff or it would turn and runoff in the other direction. In order to keep people confused about whether price is faking out or breaking out, sometimes price should whipsaw by breaking out, briefly faking out and then continuing in the direction of the breakout. This whipsaw pattern is to us a tradeable engulf.
3) Market momentum may be mixed, key players are indecisive or inactive or the market is behaving erratically.
4) As previously mentioned there may be a small pocket of supply/demand just past the engulf which is causing a reaction. This could also be viewed as a FO on a different timeframe. If the market engulfs an H1 demand level, then retraces for 30 mins upwards to supply, this engulf would be a valid and very profitable FO for an M1 trader looking to get long.
Standard Error of the Estimate -Jon Andersen- V2Original implementation idea of bands by:
Traders issue: Stocks & Commodities V. 14:9 (375-379):
Standard Error Bands by Jon Andersen
Standard Error Bands are quite different than Bollinger's.
First, they are bands constructed around a linear regression curve.
Second, the bands are based on two standard errors above and below this regression line.
The error bands measure the standard error of the estimate around the linear regression line.
Therefore, as a price series follows the course of the regression line the bands will narrow , showing little error in the estimate. As the market gets noisy and random, the error will be greater resulting in wider bands .
Thanks to the work of @glaz & @XeL_arjona
In this version you can change the type of moving averages and the source of the bands.
Add a few studies of @dgtrd
1- ADX Colored Directional Movement Line
Directional Movement (DMI) (created by J. Welles Wilder ) consists of the Average Directional Index ( ADX ), to define whether or not there is a trend present, and Plus Directional Indicator (+D I) and Minus Directional Indicator (-D I) serve the purpose of determining trend direction
ADX Colored Directional Movement Line is custom interpretation of Directional Movement (DMI) with aim to present all 3 DMI indicator components with SINGLE line and ability to be added on top of the price chart (main chart)
How to interpret :
* triangle shapes:
▲- bullish : diplus >= diminus
▼- bearish : diplus < diminus
* colors:
green - bullish trend : adx >= strongTrend and di+ > di-
red - bearish trend : adx >= strongTrend and di+ < di-
gray - no trend : weekTrend < adx < strongTrend
yellow - week trend : adx < weekTrend
* color density:
darker : adx growing
lighter : adx falling
2- Volatility Colored Price/MA Line
Custom interpretation of the idea “Prices high above the moving average (MA) or low below it are likely to be remedied in the future by a reverse price movement”. Further details can be found under study “Price Distance to its MA by DGT”
How to interpret :
-▲ – Bullish , Price Action above Moving Average
-▼ – Bearish , Price Action below Moving Average
-Gray/Black - Low Volatility
-Green/Red – Price Action in Threshold Bands
-Dark Green/Red – Price Action Exceeds Threshold Bands
3- Volume Weighted Bar s
Volume Weighted Bars, a study of Kıvanç Özbilgiç, aims to present whether volume supports price movements. Volume Weighted Bars are calculated based on volume moving average.
How to interpret :
-Volume high above the volume moving average be displayed with red/green colors
-Average volume values will remain as they are and
-Volume low below the volume moving average will be indicated with darker colors
4- Fear & Greed index value, using technical anlysis approach calculated based on :
⮩1 - Price Momentum : Price Distance to its Moving Average
⮩2 - Strenght : Rate of Return, price movement over a period of time
⮩3 - Money Flow : Chaikin Money Flow, quantify changes in buying and selling pressure. CMF calculations is based on Accumulation/Distribution
⮩4 - Market Volatility : CBOE Volatility Index ( VIX ), the Volatility Index, or VIX , is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation. It provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments
⮩5 -Safe Haven Demand: in this study GOLD demand is assumed
