Directional Index Macro IndicatorWhat is This For?
The default settings for this indicator are for BINANCE:BTCUSDT and intended to be used on the 3D timeframe to identify market trends. This indicator does a great job identifying whether the market is bullish, bearish, or consolidating. This can also work well on lower time frames to help identify when a trend is strong or when it's reversing.
Directional Index Rate of Change
Core to this indicator is the rate at which DI+ and DI- are moving away or towards each other. This is called The Rate of Change (ROC). "The ROC length dictates how many bars back you want to compare to the current bar to see how much it has changed. It is calculated like this:
(source - source /source ) * 100"
The rate of change is smoothed using an EMA. A shorter EMA length will cause the ROC to flip back and forth between positive and negative while a larger EMA length will cause the ROC to change less often. Since the rate of change is used to indicate periods of 'consolidation', you want to find a setting that doesn't flip back and forth too often. Between the DI+ and DI- is a blue centerline. Offset from this centerline is a channel that is used to filter out false crosses of the DI+ and DI-. Sometimes, the DI+ and DI- lines will come together in this channel and cross momentarily before resuming the direction prior to the cross. When this happens, you don't want to flip your bias too soon. The wider the channel, the later the indicator will signal a DI reversal. A narrower channel will call it sooner but risks being more choppy and indicating a false cross.
Indicator Status Line
This indicator has 4 values in the status line (in order):
DI+
DI-
Distance between DI+ and DI-
DI Rate of Change ( how quickly are DI+ and DI- moving away or towards center )
Indicator Plots
This indicator plots DI+ (green), DI- (red), and a center channel between DI- and DI+. Across the top of the indicator, red and green triangles indicate the market trend while the background changes to show whether the price is in an impulse wave or consolidating. This makes up 4 possible scenarios:
Bullish impulse wave ( green triangle up + green background )
Bullish consolidation ( green triangle up + yellow background )
Bearish impulse wave ( red triangle down + red background )
Bearish consolidation ( red triangle down + yellow background )
Summary
Combined with support and resistance levels, volume, and your other favorite indicators, this can be a useful tool for validating that your entries are not going against the trend.
Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. Do not take trades only based on the DI+ and DI- crossing. Always use multiple indicators to validate your entries and never take a trade when you aren’t emotionally grounded. Have a plan. Stick to the plan.
The screenshot for this strategy is of a manual historical review of BTC on the 3 day chart. The indicator was built to try and mimic the chart above. You’ll see that it nails it sometimes, is a little late sometimes, and chops around between consolidation and impulse waves when it should stay in consolidation. Share your settings if you are able to improve the choppiness without sacrificing catching the reversals early.
Cari dalam skrip untuk "roc"
Webhook Starter Kit [HullBuster]
Introduction
This is an open source strategy which provides a framework for webhook enabled projects. It is designed to work out-of-the-box on any instrument triggering on an intraday bar interval. This is a full featured script with an emphasis on actual trading at a brokerage through the TradingView alert mechanism and without requiring browser plugins.
The source code is written in a self documenting style with clearly defined sections. The sections “communicate” with each other through state variables making it easy for the strategy to evolve and improve. This is an excellent place for Pine Language beginners to start their strategy building journey. The script exhibits many Pine Language features which will certainly ad power to your script building abilities.
This script employs a basic trend follow strategy utilizing a forward pyramiding technique. Trend detection is implemented through the use of two higher time frame series. The market entry setup is a Simple Moving Average crossover. Positions exit by passing through conditional take profit logic. The script creates ten indicators including a Zscore oscillator to measure support and resistance levels. The indicator parameters are exposed through 47 strategy inputs segregated into seven sections. All of the inputs are equipped with detailed tool tips to help you get started.
To improve the transition from simulation to execution, strategy.entry and strategy.exit calls show enhanced message text with embedded keywords that are combined with the TradingView placeholders at alert time. Thereby, enabling a single JSON message to generate multiple execution events. This is genius stuff from the Pine Language development team. Really excellent work!
This document provides a sample alert message that can be applied to this script with relatively little modification. Without altering the code, the strategy inputs can alter the behavior to generate thousands of orders or simply a few dozen. It can be applied to crypto, stocks or forex instruments. A good way to look at this script is as a webhook lab that can aid in the development of your own endpoint processor, impress your co-workers and have hours of fun.
By no means is a webhook required or even necessary to benefit from this script. The setups, exits, trend detection, pyramids and DCA algorithms can be easily replaced with more sophisticated versions. The modular design of the script logic allows you to incrementally learn and advance this script into a functional trading system that you can be proud of.
Design
This is a trend following strategy that enters long above the trend line and short below. There are five trend lines that are visible by default but can be turned off in Section 7. Identified, in frequency order, as follows:
1. - EMA in the chart time frame. Intended to track price pressure. Configured in Section 3.
2. - ALMA in the higher time frame specified in Section 2 Signal Line Period.
3. - Linear Regression in the higher time frame specified in Section 2 Signal Line Period.
4. - Linear Regression in the higher time frame specified in Section 2 Signal Line Period.
5. - DEMA in the higher time frame specified in Section 2 Trend Line Period.
The Blue, Green and Orange lines are signal lines are on the same time frame. The time frame selected should be at least five times greater than the chart time frame. The Purple line represents the trend line for which prices above the line suggest a rising market and prices below a falling market. The time frame selected for the trend should be at least five times greater than the signal lines.
Three oscillators are created as follows:
1. Stochastic - In the chart time frame. Used to enter forward pyramids.
2. Stochastic - In the Trend period. Used to detect exit conditions.
3. Zscore - In the Signal period. Used to detect exit conditions.
The Stochastics are configured identically other than the time frame. The period is set in Section 2.
Two Simple Moving Averages provide the trade entry conditions in the form of a crossover. Crossing up is a long entry and down is a short. This is in fact the same setup you get when you select a basic strategy from the Pine editor. The crossovers are configured in Section 3. You can see where the crosses are occurring by enabling Show Entry Regions in Section 7.
The script has the capacity for pyramids and DCA. Forward pyramids are enabled by setting the Pyramid properties tab with a non zero value. In this case add on trades will enter the market on dips above the position open price. This process will continue until the trade exits. Downward pyramids are available in Crypto and Range mode only. In this case add on trades are placed below the entry price in the drawdown space until the stop is hit. To enable downward pyramids set the Pyramid Minimum Span In Section 1 to a non zero value.
This implementation of Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) triggers off consecutive losses. Each loss in a run increments a sequence number. The position size is increased as a multiple of this sequence. When the position eventually closes at a profit the sequence is reset. DCA is enabled by setting the Maximum DCA Increments In Section 1 to a non zero value.
It should be noted that the pyramid and DCA features are implemented using a rudimentary design and as such do not perform with the precision of my invite only scripts. They are intended as a feature to stress test your webhook endpoint. As is, you will need to buttress the logic for it to be part of an automated trading system. It is for this reason that I did not apply a Martingale algorithm to this pyramid implementation. But, hey, it’s an open source script so there is plenty of room for learning and your own experimentation.
How does it work
The overall behavior of the script is governed by the Trading Mode selection in Section 1. It is the very first input so you should think about what behavior you intend for this strategy at the onset of the configuration. As previously discussed, this script is designed to be a trend follower. The trend being defined as where the purple line is predominately heading. In BiDir mode, SMA crossovers above the purple line will open long positions and crosses below the line will open short. If pyramiding is enabled add on trades will accumulate on dips above the entry price. The value applied to the Minimum Profit input in Section 1 establishes the threshold for a profitable exit. This is not a hard number exit. The conditional exit logic must be satisfied in order to permit the trade to close. This is where the effort put into the indicator calibration is realized. There are four ways the trade can exit at a profit:
1. Natural exit. When the blue line crosses the green line the trade will close. For a long position the blue line must cross under the green line (downward). For a short the blue must cross over the green (upward).
2. Alma / Linear Regression event. The distance the blue line is from the green and the relative speed the cross is experiencing determines this event. The activation thresholds are set in Section 6 and relies on the period and length set in Section 2. A long position will exit on an upward thrust which exceeds the activation threshold. A short will exit on a downward thrust.
3. Exponential event. The distance the yellow line is from the blue and the relative speed the cross is experiencing determines this event. The activation thresholds are set in Section 3 and relies on the period and length set in the same section.
4. Stochastic event. The purple line stochastic is used to measure overbought and over sold levels with regard to position exits. Signal line positions combined with a reading over 80 signals a long profit exit. Similarly, readings below 20 signal a short profit exit.
Another, optional, way to exit a position is by Bale Out. You can enable this feature in Section 1. This is a handy way to reduce the risk when carrying a large pyramid stack. Instead of waiting for the entire position to recover we exit early (bale out) as soon as the profit value has doubled.
There are lots of ways to implement a bale out but the method I used here provides a succinct example. Feel free to improve on it if you like. To see where the Bale Outs occur, enable Show Bale Outs in Section 7. Red labels are rendered below each exit point on the chart.
There are seven selectable Trading Modes available from the drop down in Section 1:
1. Long - Uses the strategy.risk.allow_entry_in to execute long only trades. You will still see shorts on the chart.
2. Short - Uses the strategy.risk.allow_entry_in to execute short only trades. You will still see long trades on the chart.
3. BiDir - This mode is for margin trading with a stop. If a long position was initiated above the trend line and the price has now fallen below the trend, the position will be reversed after the stop is hit. Forward pyramiding is available in this mode if you set the Pyramiding value in the Properties tab. DCA can also be activated.
4. Flip Flop - This is a bidirectional trading mode that automatically reverses on a trend line crossover. This is distinctively different from BiDir since you will get a reversal even without a stop which is advantageous in non-margin trading.
5. Crypto - This mode is for crypto trading where you are buying the coins outright. In this case you likely want to accumulate coins on a crash. Especially, when all the news outlets are talking about the end of Bitcoin and you see nice deep valleys on the chart. Certainly, under these conditions, the market will be well below the purple line. No margin so you can’t go short. Downward pyramids are enabled for Crypto mode when two conditions are met. First the Pyramiding value in the Properties tab must be non zero. Second the Pyramid Minimum Span in Section 1 must be non zero.
6. Range - This is a counter trend trading mode. Longs are entered below the purple trend line and shorts above. Useful when you want to test your webhook in a market where the trend line is bisecting the signal line series. Remember that this strategy is a trend follower. It’s going to get chopped out in a range bound market. By turning on the Range mode you will at least see profitable trades while stuck in the range. However, when the market eventually picks a direction, this mode will sustain losses. This range trading mode is a rudimentary implementation that will need a lot of improvement if you want to create a reliable switch hitter (trend/range combo).
7. No Trade. Useful when setting up the trend lines and the entry and exit is not important.
Once in the trade, long or short, the script tests the exit condition on every bar. If not a profitable exit then it checks if a pyramid is required. As mentioned earlier, the entry setups are quite primitive. Although they can easily be replaced by more sophisticated algorithms, what I really wanted to show is the diminished role of the position entry in the overall life of the trade. Professional traders spend much more time on the management of the trade beyond the market entry. While your trade entry is important, you can get in almost anywhere and still land a profitable exit.
If DCA is enabled, the size of the position will increase in response to consecutive losses. The number of times the position can increase is limited by the number set in Maximum DCA Increments of Section 1. Once the position breaks the losing streak the trade size will return the default quantity set in the Properties tab. It should be noted that the Initial Capital amount set in the Properties tab does not affect the simulation in the same way as a real account. In reality, running out of money will certainly halt trading. In fact, your account would be frozen long before the last penny was committed to a trade. On the other hand, TradingView will keep running the simulation until the current bar even if your funds have been technically depleted.
Entry and exit use the strategy.entry and strategy.exit calls respectfully. The alert_message parameter has special keywords that the endpoint expects to properly calculate position size and message sequence. The alert message will embed these keywords in the JSON object through the {{strategy.order.alert_message}} placeholder. You should use whatever keywords are expected from the endpoint you intend to webhook in to.
Webhook Integration
The TradingView alerts dialog provides a way to connect your script to an external system which could actually execute your trade. This is a fantastic feature that enables you to separate the data feed and technical analysis from the execution and reporting systems. Using this feature it is possible to create a fully automated trading system entirely on the cloud. Of course, there is some work to get it all going in a reliable fashion. Being a strategy type script place holders such as {{strategy.position_size}} can be embedded in the alert message text. There are more than 10 variables which can write internal script values into the message for delivery to the specified endpoint.
Entry and exit use the strategy.entry and strategy.exit calls respectfully. The alert_message parameter has special keywords that my endpoint expects to properly calculate position size and message sequence. The alert message will embed these keywords in the JSON object through the {{strategy.order.alert_message}} placeholder. You should use whatever keywords are expected from the endpoint you intend to webhook in to.
Here is an excerpt of the fields I use in my webhook signal:
"broker_id": "kraken",
"account_id": "XXX XXXX XXXX XXXX",
"symbol_id": "XMRUSD",
"action": "{{strategy.order.action}}",
"strategy": "{{strategy.order.id}}",
"lots": "{{strategy.order.contracts}}",
"price": "{{strategy.order.price}}",
"comment": "{{strategy.order.alert_message}}",
"timestamp": "{{time}}"
Though TradingView does a great job in dispatching your alert this feature does come with a few idiosyncrasies. Namely, a single transaction call in your script may cause multiple transmissions to the endpoint. If you are using placeholders each message describes part of the transaction sequence. A good example is closing a pyramid stack. Although the script makes a single strategy.close() call, the endpoint actually receives a close message for each pyramid trade. The broker, on the other hand, only requires a single close. The incongruity of this situation is exacerbated by the possibility of messages being received out of sequence. Depending on the type of order designated in the message, a close or a reversal. This could have a disastrous effect on your live account. This broker simulator has no idea what is actually going on at your real account. Its just doing the job of running the simulation and sending out the computed results. If your TradingView simulation falls out of alignment with the actual trading account lots of really bad things could happen. Like your script thinks your are currently long but the account is actually short. Reversals from this point forward will always be wrong with no one the wiser. Human intervention will be required to restore congruence. But how does anyone find out this is occurring? In closed systems engineering this is known as entropy. In practice your webhook logic should be robust enough to detect these conditions. Be generous with the placeholder usage and give the webhook code plenty of information to compare states. Both issuer and receiver. Don’t blindly commit incoming signals without verifying system integrity.
Setup
The following steps provide a very brief set of instructions that will get you started on your first configuration. After you’ve gone through the process a couple of times, you won’t need these anymore. It’s really a simple script after all. I have several example configurations that I used to create the performance charts shown. I can share them with you if you like. Of course, if you’ve modified the code then these steps are probably obsolete.
There are 47 inputs divided into seven sections. For the most part, the configuration process is designed to flow from top to bottom. Handy, tool tips are available on every field to help get you through the initial setup.
Step 1. Input the Base Currency and Order Size in the Properties tab. Set the Pyramiding value to zero.
Step 2. Select the Trading Mode you intend to test with from the drop down in Section 1. I usually select No Trade until I’ve setup all of the trend lines, profit and stop levels.
Step 3. Put in your Minimum Profit and Stop Loss in the first section. This is in pips or currency basis points (chart right side scale). Remember that the profit is taken as a conditional exit not a fixed limit. The actual profit taken will almost always be greater than the amount specified. The stop loss, on the other hand, is indeed a hard number which is executed by the TradingView broker simulator when the threshold is breached.
Step 4. Apply the appropriate value to the Tick Scalar field in Section 1. This value is used to remove the pipette from the price. You can enable the Summary Report in Section 7 to see the TradingView minimum tick size of the current chart.
Step 5. Apply the appropriate Price Normalizer value in Section 1. This value is used to normalize the instrument price for differential calculations. Basically, we want to increase the magnitude to significant digits to make the numbers more meaningful in comparisons. Though I have used many normalization techniques, I have always found this method to provide a simple and lightweight solution for less demanding applications. Most of the time the default value will be sufficient. The Tick Scalar and Price Normalizer value work together within a single calculation so changing either will affect all delta result values.
Step 6. Turn on the trend line plots in Section 7. Then configure Section 2. Try to get the plots to show you what’s really happening not what you want to happen. The most important is the purple trend line. Select an interval and length that seem to identify where prices tend to go during non-consolidation periods. Remember that a natural exit is when the blue crosses the green line.
Step 7. Enable Show Event Regions in Section 7. Then adjust Section 6. Blue background fills are spikes and red fills are plunging prices. These measurements should be hard to come by so you should see relatively few fills on the chart if you’ve set this up as intended. Section 6 includes the Zscore oscillator the state of which combines with the signal lines to detect statistically significant price movement. The Zscore is a zero based calculation with positive and negative magnitude readings. You want to input a reasonably large number slightly below the maximum amplitude seen on the chart. Both rise and fall inputs are entered as a positive real number. You can easily use my code to create a separate indicator if you want to see it in action. The default value is sufficient for most configurations.
Step 8. Turn off Show Event Regions and enable Show Entry Regions in Section 7. Then adjust Section 3. This section contains two parts. The entry setup crossovers and EMA events. Adjust the crossovers first. That is the Fast Cross Length and Slow Cross Length. The frequency of your trades will be shown as blue and red fills. There should be a lot. Then turn off Show Event Regions and enable Display EMA Peaks. Adjust all the fields that have the word EMA. This is actually the yellow line on the chart. The blue and red fills should show much less than the crossovers but more than event fills shown in Step 7.
Step 9. Change the Trading Mode to BiDir if you selected No Trades previously. Look on the chart and see where the trades are occurring. Make adjustments to the Minimum Profit and Stop Offset in Section 1 if necessary. Wider profits and stops reduce the trade frequency.
Step 10. Go to Section 4 and 5 and make fine tuning adjustments to the long and short side.
Example Settings
To reproduce the performance shown on the chart please use the following configuration: (Bitcoin on the Kraken exchange)
1. Select XBTUSD Kraken as the chart symbol.
2. On the properties tab set the Order Size to: 0.01 Bitcoin
3. On the properties tab set the Pyramiding to: 12
4. In Section 1: Select “Crypto” for the Trading Model
5. In Section 1: Input 2000 for the Minimum Profit
6. In Section 1: Input 0 for the Stop Offset (No Stop)
7. In Section 1: Input 10 for the Tick Scalar
8. In Section 1: Input 1000 for the Price Normalizer
9. In Section 1: Input 2000 for the Pyramid Minimum Span
10. In Section 1: Check mark the Position Bale Out
11. In Section 2: Input 60 for the Signal Line Period
12. In Section 2: Input 1440 for the Trend Line Period
13. In Section 2: Input 5 for the Fast Alma Length
14. In Section 2: Input 22 for the Fast LinReg Length
15. In Section 2: Input 100 for the Slow LinReg Length
16. In Section 2: Input 90 for the Trend Line Length
17. In Section 2: Input 14 Stochastic Length
18. In Section 3: Input 9 Fast Cross Length
19. In Section 3: Input 24 Slow Cross Length
20. In Section 3: Input 8 Fast EMA Length
21. In Section 3: Input 10 Fast EMA Rise NetChg
22. In Section 3: Input 1 Fast EMA Rise ROC
23. In Section 3: Input 10 Fast EMA Fall NetChg
24. In Section 3: Input 1 Fast EMA Fall ROC
25. In Section 4: Check mark the Long Natural Exit
26. In Section 4: Check mark the Long Signal Exit
27. In Section 4: Check mark the Long Price Event Exit
28. In Section 4: Check mark the Long Stochastic Exit
29. In Section 5: Check mark the Short Natural Exit
30. In Section 5: Check mark the Short Signal Exit
31. In Section 5: Check mark the Short Price Event Exit
32. In Section 5: Check mark the Short Stochastic Exit
33. In Section 6: Input 120 Rise Event NetChg
34. In Section 6: Input 1 Rise Event ROC
35. In Section 6: Input 5 Min Above Zero ZScore
36. In Section 6: Input 120 Fall Event NetChg
37. In Section 6: Input 1 Fall Event ROC
38. In Section 6: Input 5 Min Below Zero ZScore
In this configuration we are trading in long only mode and have enabled downward pyramiding. The purple trend line is based on the day (1440) period. The length is set at 90 days so it’s going to take a while for the trend line to alter course should this symbol decide to node dive for a prolonged amount of time. Your trades will still go long under those circumstances. Since downward accumulation is enabled, your position size will grow on the way down.
The performance example is Bitcoin so we assume the trader is buying coins outright. That being the case we don’t need a stop since we will never receive a margin call. New buy signals will be generated when the price exceeds the magnitude and speed defined by the Event Net Change and Rate of Change.
Feel free to PM me with any questions related to this script. Thank you and happy trading!
CFTC RULE 4.41
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
+ Rate of Change (and OBV)The Rate of Change, or RoC, is a momentum indicator that measures the percentage change in price between the current period and the price n periods ago. It oscillates above and below a zeroline, basically showing positive or negative momentum. I applied the OBV's calculation to it, but without the inclusion of volume (also added a lookback period) to see what would happen.
Actually what happened was I was looking at hot-rodding the OBV indicator, but then wondered if I could apply the cumulative calculation to another indicator to see what would happen. Not sure why I chose the Rate of Change, but it seemed a neat idea. And it worked! And so I called it the "Cumulative Rate of Change." I only recently realized that this is actually just the OBV without volume, HOWEVER the OBV does not have a lookback period, and its source is the close of each period. Basically, when you look at the calculation for the OBV you'll notice that it's a cumulative measure of the "change" of the closing price against the previous close times the volume. The Rate of Change is basically that measurement over more than one period, excluding the volume, and is not cumulative. Thus the "Cumulative Rate of Change" is basically an OBV without the volume but with the capability to adjust the lookback period.
Anyway, after days and weeks of playing with the indicator pretty infrequently I did decide that I actually really liked it, especially with the addition of moving averages and bollinger bands. So I decided to play with it a bit more.
I added a drop-down menu to include the standard Rate of Change indicator, and then thought I may as well add the OBV too, in case someone might like to compare that to the C-RoC, or just wants an OBV with myriad moving averages and bollinger bands.
By default I have the indicator set to the "C-RoC" and the lookback is set to 1, but play with longer settings (this is pretty much necessary if using the traditional RoC, which is by default set to 10 in TradingView, and is nigh on useless at 1).
I also recommend playing with the source. 'Close' is nice, but 'ohlc4' provides some very nice signals as well, as it follows the price flow for each period completely, filtering the noisiness of 'close' as source.
Hope you guys like this. With the bollinger bands and your preferred moving average settings this can be a powerful tool for re-entering trades in trend, taking profits, determining momentum swings.
[blackcat] L1 Vitali Apirine Rate Of Change With BandsLevel: 1
Background
Vitali Apirine introuced this RoC indicator of “Rate Of Change With Bands” on March 2021.
Function
In Vitali Apirine's article “Rate Of Change With Bands” , the author introduces a concept of identifying overbought and oversold levels based on calculating standard deviation bands of the rate of change (ROC) momentum oscillator. The rate of change bands widen and narrow as the ROC deviation increases and decreases. The author proposes using this indicator in conjunction with other technical analysis methods to determine if the instrument is overbought or oversold.
Key Signal
UpperBand --> overbought threshold
oMARoc --> Output RoC Moving Average
LowerBand --> oversold threshold
Labels
L --> Long
S --> Short
XL --> Close Long
XS --> Close Short
Pros and Cons
100% Vitali Apirine definition translation, even variable names are the same. This help readers who would like to use pine to read his article.
Remarks
The 1st script for Blackcat1402 Vitali Apirine series publication.
Readme
In real life, I am a prolific inventor. I have successfully applied for more than 60 international and regional patents in the past 12 years. But in the past two years or so, I have tried to transfer my creativity to the development of trading strategies. Tradingview is the ideal platform for me. I am selecting and contributing some of the hundreds of scripts to publish in Tradingview community. Welcome everyone to interact with me to discuss these interesting pine scripts.
The scripts posted are categorized into 5 levels according to my efforts or manhours put into these works.
Level 1 : interesting script snippets or distinctive improvement from classic indicators or strategy. Level 1 scripts can usually appear in more complex indicators as a function module or element.
Level 2 : composite indicator/strategy. By selecting or combining several independent or dependent functions or sub indicators in proper way, the composite script exhibits a resonance phenomenon which can filter out noise or fake trading signal to enhance trading confidence level.
Level 3 : comprehensive indicator/strategy. They are simple trading systems based on my strategies. They are commonly containing several or all of entry signal, close signal, stop loss, take profit, re-entry, risk management, and position sizing techniques. Even some interesting fundamental and mass psychological aspects are incorporated.
Level 4 : script snippets or functions that do not disclose source code. Interesting element that can reveal market laws and work as raw material for indicators and strategies. If you find Level 1~2 scripts are helpful, Level 4 is a private version that took me far more efforts to develop.
Level 5 : indicator/strategy that do not disclose source code. private version of Level 3 script with my accumulated script processing skills or a large number of custom functions. I had a private function library built in past two years. Level 5 scripts use many of them to achieve private trading strategy.
Easy TrendThis signal is completely based on analysis and transformation of a single simple moving average. As with all signals and indicators, it should be combined with others.
This is how the signal is built:
1. First it takes the SMA of the closing price.
2. It then takes the ROC of that SMA using a length of 1.
3. It takes an 8-period SMA and also a 64-period SMA of that ROC.
4. These are plotted as follows:
- the ROC is plotted in green when above 0 (trending up) and red when below 0 (trending down).
- the 8-period SMA is plotted as a thin white line within the ROC signal
- the 64-period SMA is plotted as a thick white line within the ROC signal
When the trendline is green, this is a bullish zone. When the trendline is red, this is a bearish zone.
Moving averages (all types of moving averages) are inherently lagging signals. To compensate for that, I am offsetting each SMA series by half of its period. This may be confusing to some, but the end result is a mathematically accurate SMA signal, centered on the signal that it is providing the moving average of. It doesn't stop the lag, but it directly and obviously shows how lagged each signal is, which I personally find better to trade against.
Symbols on the top and bottom of indicator:
Yellow triangle at bottom of indicator shows where a downward trend is starting to bottom out and a buy/long opening may be available soon.
Green triangle at bottom of indicator shows that a downward trend has switched to an upward trend. This indicates a good time to buy.
Yellow triangle at top of indicator shows where an upward trend is starting to plateau and a sell/short opening may be available soon.
Red triangle at top of indicator shows that an upward trend has switched to a downward trend. This indicates a good time to sell.
Note: You may see multiple yellow triangles before seeing a green or red triangle. This can happen when multiple trend accelerations or decelerations occur within an overall green or red zone.
In addition there is a dotted line connecting the end of the 64-period SMA to the end of the 8-period SMA. This indicates the direction the trend is moving towards. When the dotted line crosses the zero line, this portrays a rough estimate of where the trend may switch from a downtrend to an uptrend or vice versa. This is the "best" time to buy or sell, depending on your strategy.
I recommend placing a SMA on your candles set to the same window size as this indicator, and also to offset that SMA to the left by half its window size. For example, a 90-period SMA should be offset by -45 periods. That will cause it to be correctly aligned with this trend signal.
Moving Average Rate of changeThis indicator measures rate of change of moving average.
Steps to derive are as follows:
Calculate moving average of Source based on Moving Average Type and Moving Average Length
Find the difference between moving average value of present bar and LoopbackPeriod bars back.
Calculate ROC of moving average with respect to either Moving average itself or with respect to close price. PercentOfSource when unchecked calculates percent based on Moving Average. If not based on close price.
Calculate moving average of ROC based on ROC Moving Average Type and ROC Moving Average Length .
BTC - StableFlow: Pit-Stop & Refuel EngineBTC – StableFlow: Pit-Stop & Refuel Engine | RM
Strategic Context: The Institutional Gas Station In the high-speed race of the crypto markets, Stablecoins (USDT, USDC, DAI) represent the Fuel, and Bitcoin is the Race Car. Most traders only look at the car's speed (Price), but they ignore the gas tank. The StableFlow Engine is a telemetry dashboard designed to monitor the "Fuel Pressure" within the ecosystem, identifying exactly when the car is being refueled and when it is running on empty.
The Telemetry Logic: How to Read the Race
The indicator operates on a Relative Velocity model. We aren't just looking at how many Stablecoins exist; we are measuring the Acceleration of Stablecoin Market Cap relative to the Acceleration of BTC Price.
1. The Fuel Reservoir (The Histogram)
• Cyan Zones (Refuel): The gas station is open. Institutional "Dry Powder" is flowing into stables faster than it is being spent on BTC. The tank is filling up.
• Orange Zones (Exhaust): The "Overdrive." The car is driving faster than the gas can be pumped. Price is outperforming the stablecoin supply—this is unsustainable and usually precedes a stall.
2. Lap Transitions (The Grey Lines)
These vertical markers signify a Regime Shift . They trigger the moment the momentum crosses the zero-axis, visually distinguishing the transition between a "Net-Refueling" period and a "Net-Exhaustion" period. While not used as direct entry signals, they define the Macro Lap we are currently in.
Operational Playbook: The Pit-Stop Signals
We don't just buy because the tank is full; we buy when the car exits the pits and begins to accelerate. This is captured by our proprietary Pit-Stop Pips.
• Blue Pip (Pit-Stop Buy): Triggered when the Refuel momentum has peaked and is now rotating back into the market. The refuel is complete; the car is rejoining the race with a full tank.
• Red Pip (Exhaust Sell): Triggered when the price acceleration has overextended relative to its fuel source and begins to "roll over." The tank is near empty; time for a tactical pull-back.
Settings & Calibration: The Pit Wall Dashboard
Signal Mode & Logic The engine features a dual-mode signaling system to adapt to different market conditions (or your personal preferred logic):
• Consecutive Mode: Best for high-velocity trends. Fires a pip after n bars of momentum reversal (Default: 2 bars).
• Percentage (%) Mode: Best for structural fades. Fires a pip when the momentum retraces by a specific percentage (e.g., 15%) from its local peak, regardless of the bar count.
Recommended Calibration
While the engine is versatile across various timeframes, the Weekly (1W) chart is the preferred setting for identifying high-conviction macro signals. Lower timeframes provide tactical speed, but the 1W frame offers significantly cleaner signals by filtering out the daily market noise.
Weekly (1W) — The Macro Signal (Preferred): * Velocity Lookback: 20 | Smoothing: 5.
Peak Lookback: 25 (Represents roughly half a year of telemetry data). This is a good starting point for identifying major cycle rotations.
Daily (1D) — The Tactical Pulse: * Velocity Lookback: 20 | Smoothing: 5.
Peak Lookback: 25 (Represents one trading month of telemetry). Useful for active swing traders looking for entry/exit timing within an established macro trend.
Technical Documentation
Data Sourcing & Aggregation The script utilizes request.security to aggregate a "Big Three" Stablecoin Market Cap (USDT + USDC + DAI). This prevents "False Exhaustion" signals caused by capital simply migrating between different stablecoin assets.
Mathematical Foundation The core engine calculates the Rate of Change (ROC) for the Aggregate Stablecoin Supply and BTC Price over a synchronized lookback window.
Formula Logic: Fuel Pressure = EMA ( ROC(Stables) - ROC(BTC) )
The Pit-Stop Pips utilize a local peak-finding algorithm via ta.highest and ta.lowest within a rolling 25-bar window to calculate the Relative Retracement Magnitude . This ensures signals are mathematically tied to the volatility of the current market regime.
The Dual-Fuel Framework: StableFlow x Liquisync
The StableFlow Engine is designed to function as the tactical counterpart to the Liquisync: Macro Pulse Engine . While Liquisync monitors the Global Supply Line (the "Tanker Truck" of M2 Liquidity moving from Central Banks toward the track with a 60-day lead), StableFlow measures the Immediate Fuel Pressure (the "Dry Powder" already in the pit lane, ready to be pumped into the car).
By using both indicators in tandem, you can follow the Dual-Fuel Strategy: Liquisync identifies the fundamental macro regime, while StableFlow identifies the specific "Refuel" and "Exhaustion" pivots within that regime. We will be providing a comprehensive breakdown of this synchronized telemetry in our upcoming Substack Masterclass: The Dual-Fuel Architecture.
Risk Disclaimer & Credits
The StableFlow is a thematic macro tool tracking on-chain liquidity proxies. Stablecoin data is subject to exchange reporting delays. This is not financial advice; it is a telemetry model for institutional education. Rob Maths is not liable for losses incurred via use of this model.
Tags:
indicator, bitcoin, btc, stablecoins, usdt, flow, liquidity, macro, refuel, institutional, robmaths, Rob Maths
FluxPulse Momentum [JOAT]FluxPulse Momentum - Adaptive Multi-Component Oscillator
FluxPulse Momentum is a composite oscillator that blends three distinct momentum components into a single, smoothed signal line. Rather than relying on a single indicator, it synthesizes adaptive RSI, normalized rate of change, and a Kaufman-style efficiency ratio to provide a multi-dimensional view of momentum.
What This Indicator Does
Combines RSI, Rate of Change (ROC), and Efficiency Ratio into one weighted composite
Applies EMA smoothing to reduce noise while preserving responsiveness
Displays overbought/oversold zones with optional background highlighting
Generates buy/sell signals when the oscillator crosses its signal line in favorable zones
Provides a real-time dashboard showing current state, momentum direction, and efficiency
Core Components
Adaptive RSI (50% weight) — Standard RSI calculation normalized around the 50 level
Normalized ROC (30% weight) — Rate of change scaled relative to its recent maximum range
Efficiency Ratio (20% weight) — Measures directional movement efficiency, inspired by Kaufman's adaptive concepts
The final composite is smoothed twice using EMA to create both a fast line and a signal line.
Signal Logic
// Buy signal: crossover in lower half
buySignal = ta.crossover(qmo, qmoSmooth) and qmo < 50
// Sell signal: crossunder in upper half
sellSignal = ta.crossunder(qmo, qmoSmooth) and qmo > 50
Signals are generated only when the oscillator is positioned favorably—buy signals occur below the 50 midline, sell signals occur above it.
Dashboard Information
The on-chart table displays:
Current oscillator value with gradient coloring
Momentum state (Overbought, Oversold, Bullish, Bearish, Neutral)
Momentum direction and acceleration
Efficiency ratio percentage
Active signal status
Inputs Overview
RSI Length — Period for RSI calculation (default: 14)
ROC Length — Period for rate of change (default: 10)
Smoothing Length — EMA smoothing period (default: 3)
Overbought/Oversold Levels — Threshold levels for zone detection
Await Bar Confirmation — Wait for bar close before triggering alerts
How to Use It
Watch for crossovers between the main line and signal line
Use overbought/oversold zones to identify potential reversal areas
Monitor the histogram for momentum acceleration or deceleration
Combine with price action analysis for confirmation
Alerts
Buy Signal — Bullish crossover in the lower zone
Sell Signal — Bearish crossunder in the upper zone
Overbought/Oversold Crosses — Level threshold crossings
This indicator is provided for educational purposes. It does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis before making trading decisions.
— Made with passion by officialjackofalltrades
On Balance Volume [BrightSideTrading]
# On Balance Volume - Complete User Guide
## Overview
This enhanced OBV indicator provides clean, actionable volume analysis with intelligent signal filtering. It combines On-Balance Volume (OBV) with a smoothed signal line to identify shifts in buying and selling pressure without chart clutter.
**Key Features:**
- Real-time OBV and signal line visualization
- Smart crossover detection with confirmation filtering
- Z-Score momentum analysis
- Customizable signal alerts with V-shaped markers
- Window-normalized option for detrended analysis
---
## What is On-Balance Volume (OBV)?
OBV is a volume-based momentum indicator that accumulates volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days. It answers a fundamental question: **Is volume flowing in (buying) or out (selling)?**
**Formula:**
- If Close > Previous Close: OBV = Previous OBV + Volume
- If Close < Previous Close: OBV = Previous OBV - Volume
- If Close = Previous Close: OBV = Previous OBV (unchanged)
**What it tells you:**
- **Rising OBV** = Accumulation (smart money buying)
- **Falling OBV** = Distribution (smart money selling)
- **OBV above zero line** = Net positive buying pressure
- **OBV below zero line** = Net negative selling pressure
---
## Interface & Settings
### **MAIN VISUALIZATION**
**OBV Line (Green/Red Ribbon)**
- Green when OBV is above the signal line (bullish trend)
- Red when OBV is below the signal line (bearish trend)
- Toggles between window-normalized (detrended) and raw values
**Signal Line (Orange)**
- Smoothed average of OBV
- Crossovers with OBV generate buy/sell signals
- Default: 21-period SMA
**V-Shaped Markers**
- Green upward V = Bullish crossover (buy signal)
- Red downward V = Bearish crossover (sell signal)
- Appears at the OBV value when signal is triggered
**Zero Line (Yellow)**
- Center equilibrium point for volume balance
- Acts as support/resistance for OBV
- Separates buying pressure (above) from selling pressure (below)
---
### **SOURCE GROUP**
**Source**
- **Default:** Close
- **Options:** Open, High, Low, or any custom value
- Controls which price value triggers OBV direction changes
- Most traders use Close for standard OBV calculation
---
### **SIGNAL SMOOTHING GROUP**
**Show Signal?**
- **Default:** ON
- Toggle visibility of the signal line
- Disable if you prefer to see raw OBV only
**Smoothing Type**
- **SMA (Simple Moving Average)** - Default, standard smoothing
- **EMA (Exponential Moving Average)** - Faster response, weights recent bars more heavily
- **Choose SMA** for consistent, traditional OBV signals
- **Choose EMA** for faster trend identification (more whipsaws possible)
**Smoothing Length**
- **Default:** 21 bars
- **Range:** 1-200 bars
- **Lower values** (5-14): Faster signals, more noise
- **Higher values** (30-50): Slower signals, fewer false alarms
- **Recommendation:** Use 21-25 for most timeframes
---
### **SIGNAL FILTERING GROUP**
This is your primary control for signal quality and frequency.
**Show Signal Markers?**
- **Default:** ON
- Toggle the V-shaped buy/sell markers on/off
- Disable if markers distract from your analysis
**Signal Filter Type**
- **None** - Shows every single crossover (noisy, best for skilled traders)
- **Confirmation Bars** - Waits N bars before confirming signal (recommended)
- **Strength-Based** - Only signals during strong momentum (filters weakest moves)
#### **CONFIRMATION BARS MODE** (Recommended)
Best for reducing false signals while staying responsive to real moves.
**Confirmation Bars**
- **Default:** 2 bars
- **Range:** 1-10 bars
- Waits for the signal to hold for N consecutive bars after crossover
- **Setting 1:** Every crossover (same as "None")
- **Setting 2:** Wait 1 bar confirmation (good balance)
- **Setting 3:** Wait 2 bars confirmation (filters 50% of noise)
- **Setting 4+:** Very selective, misses quick reversals
**How it works:**
1. OBV crosses signal line → Confirmation counter starts
2. If OBV stays on correct side for 2 bars → V-marker appears
3. If OBV crosses back → Counter resets, no signal
#### **STRENGTH-BASED MODE**
Only signals when momentum is statistically significant.
**Min Z-Score Strength**
- **Default:** 0.3
- **Range:** 0.0-3.0
- Requires OBV deviation from its mean to reach this threshold
- **Setting 0.1-0.3:** More signals, lower quality
- **Setting 0.5-0.8:** Moderate signals, good quality
- **Setting 1.0+:** Only the strongest momentum shifts
**How it works:**
- Calculates how far OBV is from its 50-bar average (Z-score)
- Only shows signals when this distance is meaningful
- Automatically avoids weak, choppy market conditions
---
### **VISUALS & COLORS GROUP**
**Highlight Crossovers?**
- **Default:** ON
- Master toggle for all signal markers
- Turn OFF to see only the OBV/signal lines
**Apply Ribbon Filling?**
- **Default:** ON
- Colors the space between OBV and signal line
- Green fill = OBV above signal (bullish)
- Red fill = OBV below signal (bearish)
- Provides clear visual trend confirmation
- Turn OFF for minimal chart clutter
---
### **STATS & ZONES GROUP**
**Use Window-Normalized OBV (visual only)?**
- **Default:** ON
- Removes long-term trend from OBV for clearer short-term signals
- Detrends the indicator to highlight recent momentum changes
- **ON:** Better for swing trading and identifying reversals
- **OFF:** Better for trend-following strategies
- Note: Z-Score always uses raw OBV for statistical accuracy
**OBV Normalize Window**
- **Default:** 200 bars
- Lookback period for detrending calculation
- Larger values = more aggressive detrending
- Adjust if you want OBV to oscillate more/less around zero
**Show Z-Score (OBV)?**
- **Default:** ON
- Displays statistical momentum indicator below main chart
- Ranges from -3 to +3 (most data within -2 to +2)
- High Z-Score = Strong buying momentum
- Low Z-Score = Strong selling momentum
**Z-Score Lookback**
- **Default:** 50 bars
- Period for calculating Z-Score mean and standard deviation
- Larger = smoother Z-Score, slower response
- Smaller = noisier Z-Score, faster response
**Show ROC (OBV Momentum)?**
- **Default:** OFF
- Rate of Change indicator for OBV velocity
- Useful for identifying momentum turning points
- Enable if you want to see speed of volume changes
**ROC Lookback**
- **Default:** 14 bars
- Period for ROC calculation
**Show Z-Score StdDev Zones?**
- **Default:** ON
- Shaded regions around zero line showing statistical boundaries
- Inner Zone (±1 Z) = Normal variation
- Outer Zone (±2 Z) = Extreme moves, potential reversals
- Helps identify overbought/oversold volume conditions
**Inner Zone (±Z)**
- **Default:** 1.0
- First boundary for standard deviation zones
- Most normal trading occurs within ±1
**Outer Zone (±Z)**
- **Default:** 2.0
- Second boundary for extreme conditions
- Crossing these zones indicates significant momentum shift
---
## Trading Strategy Examples
### **Strategy 1: Signal Line Crossovers (Beginner)**
**Setup:**
- Signal Filter Type: **Confirmation Bars**
- Confirmation Bars: **2-3**
- Show Signal Markers: **ON**
**Rules:**
1. **BUY signal** (green V): When OBV crosses above signal line and holds for 2-3 bars
- Confirms buying pressure is building
- Look for price to follow within 1-3 bars
2. **SELL signal** (red V): When OBV crosses below signal line and holds for 2-3 bars
- Confirms selling pressure is increasing
- Expect price decline
3. **Exit:** Take profits at next signal or use price support/resistance
**Best For:** Swing trading, intraday reversals, timeframes 5m-1h
---
### **Strategy 2: Zero Line Bounce (Intermediate)**
**Setup:**
- Signal Filter Type: **Strength-Based**
- Min Z-Score Strength: **0.5**
- Show Z-Score StdDev Zones: **ON**
**Rules:**
1. **Watch OBV approach zero line** during established trends
- OBV bouncing repeatedly off zero = trend is healthy
- OBV breaking through zero = trend reversal imminent
2. **Enter on bounce:** Buy when OBV bounces from zero line in uptrend
3. **Exit on break:** Close position when OBV breaks below zero line
4. **Confirm with Z-Score:** Only take trades when Z-Score shows momentum (|Z| > 0.5)
**Best For:** Trend traders, identifying trend strength, medium timeframes 15m-4h
---
### **Strategy 3: Momentum Extremes (Advanced)**
**Setup:**
- Signal Filter Type: **None**
- Show Z-Score StdDev Zones: **ON**
- Outer Zone: **2.0**
**Rules:**
1. **Identify extremes:** When Z-Score breaks outer zone (±2.0)
- Indicator is in extreme territory
- Likely overextended
2. **Fade extremes:** Take opposite position when Z-Score hits extreme
- High Z (>2.0) = OBV overbought, expect pullback
- Low Z (<-2.0) = OBV oversold, expect bounce
3. **Confirm:** Wait for crossover signal to enter
4. **Target:** Outer zone of opposite side or zero line
**Best For:** Range trading, mean reversion, experienced traders only
---
## Reading the Indicator in Different Markets
### **Strong Uptrend**
- OBV consistently above signal line (green)
- OBV well above zero line, rising higher lows
- Z-Score positive, trending upward
- **Action:** Buy dips to signal line, sell at resistance
### **Strong Downtrend**
- OBV consistently below signal line (red)
- OBV well below zero line, making lower highs
- Z-Score negative, trending downward
- **Action:** Sell rallies to signal line, cover at support
### **Consolidation/Choppy Market**
- OBV whipsaws around signal line frequently
- Crossovers occur every few bars
- Z-Score oscillating between -1 and +1
- **Action:** Increase confirmation bars to 3-4, or switch to strength-based filter
### **Accumulation (Bottom Formation)**
- OBV rising while price is flat or falling
- Volume flowing in despite downtrend (bullish divergence)
- Z-Score climbing while price lows hold
- **Action:** Expect breakout up; prepare buy near support
### **Distribution (Top Formation)**
- OBV falling while price is flat or rising
- Volume flowing out despite uptrend (bearish divergence)
- Z-Score falling while price continues higher
- **Action:** Expect breakdown down; prepare short near resistance
---
## Parameter Tuning Guide
### **Aggressive Settings (More Signals)**
- Smoothing Length: 14
- Signal Filter: None or Confirmation Bars: 1
- Min Z-Score: 0.1
- Best for: Day trading, high volatility stocks
- Risk: More false signals
### **Balanced Settings (Recommended)**
- Smoothing Length: 21
- Signal Filter: Confirmation Bars: 2
- Min Z-Score: 0.3
- Best for: Swing trading, most market conditions
- Risk/Reward: Moderate
### **Conservative Settings (Fewer Signals)**
- Smoothing Length: 30-40
- Signal Filter: Confirmation Bars: 3-4 or Strength-Based: 0.7+
- Min Z-Score: 0.8
- Best for: Position trading, high-conviction trades only
- Risk: May miss some moves
---
## Common Questions & Troubleshooting
**Q: Why are there more sell signals than buy signals?**
A: This reflects the actual market action. Markets often decline faster than they rise (fear > greed). Confirm signals with price action and support/resistance.
**Q: The indicator keeps whipsawing, should I hide it?**
A: Increase Confirmation Bars to 3-4 or switch to Strength-Based filter. Market conditions matter—choppy markets require stricter filters.
**Q: What's the difference between normalized and raw OBV?**
A: Normalized (detrended) shows shorter-term momentum by removing long-term trends. Raw OBV shows absolute accumulation/distribution over the full period. Use normalized for swing signals, raw for trend confirmation.
**Q: My signals come too late. How do I get faster entry?**
A: Reduce Smoothing Length (try 14 instead of 21), use EMA instead of SMA, or set Confirmation Bars to 1. Trade-off: More false signals.
**Q: Can I use this for day trading?**
A: Yes, on 1m-5m charts with aggressive settings. Use Confirmation Bars: 1 and focus on Z-Score > 0.5 entries only.
**Q: Should I trade every signal?**
A: No. Filter signals using: price near support/resistance, multiple indicators confirming, and Z-Score showing momentum. Best signals occur at key levels.
---
## Best Practices
1. **Always confirm with price action:** OBV signals work best when price is near support, resistance, or moving average. Don't trade signals in a vacuum.
2. **Use volume context:** Check if volume is increasing or decreasing on the signal. Strong signals have volume confirmation (increasing volume on OBV spikes).
3. **Adjust settings per timeframe:**
- 1m-5m: Smoothing 12, Confirmation 1, Z-Score 0.2
- 15m-1h: Smoothing 20, Confirmation 2, Z-Score 0.3
- 4h-1d: Smoothing 25, Confirmation 3, Z-Score 0.5
4. **Watch the zero line:** It's your friend. OBV behavior at the zero line reveals trend strength. Bounces = healthy trend. Breaks = reversal.
5. **Risk management:** No indicator is perfect. Use proper position sizing and stop losses. OBV should confirm your thesis, not be the only reason to trade.
6. **Combine with other indicators:**
- Price moving averages for trend confirmation
- RSI or Stochastic for overbought/oversold levels
- Support/resistance for entry/exit zones
- MACD for momentum divergences
---
## Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making trading decisions. Trading carries risk, including potential loss of principal.
---
## Version History
**Version 1.0** - Initial release with enhanced signal filtering, Z-Score analysis, and customizable parameters.
Probabilistic Panel - COMPLETE VERSION📘 Probabilistic Panel — User Manual
________________________________________
INTRODUCTION
The Probabilistic Panel is an advanced TradingView indicator that merges multiple technical-analysis components to provide a probabilistic evaluation of market direction. It is composed of several sections that assess trend, volume, price zones, support and resistance, multiple timeframes, and candle distribution.
________________________________________
PANEL STRUCTURE
1. HEADER
• PROBABILISTIC PANEL: Indicator name.
• FULL VERSION: Indicates that all functionalities are enabled.
________________________________________
2. GENERAL INFORMATION
• ASSET: Displays the asset symbol being analyzed.
• LIMITS: Shows score thresholds for classifying setups (A+, B, C).
________________________________________
3. DIRECTION PROBABILITIES
• PROB: Displays probability of upward movement (upPct) and downward movement (downPct) in percentage.
o Importance: Indicates the direction with the highest probability based on weighted factors.
________________________________________
4. CONTINUATION BIAS
• BIAS: Shows the probability of continuation of the current trend (intrProbCont).
o Importance: Evaluates whether the market is likely to continue in the same direction.
________________________________________
5. MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS (MTF)
• MTF: Shows trend direction across multiple timeframes (1D, 1H, 15M, 5M, 1M) using arrows (↑ uptrend, ↓ downtrend, → sideways).
o Importance: Helps identify convergence or divergence between timeframes.
• ALIGNED MTF: Displays the percentage of alignment between timeframes.
o Importance: Higher alignment indicates stronger trends.
________________________________________
6. VOLUME
• VOLUME: Indicates whether volume is “INCREASING”, “DECREASING”, or “STABLE.”
o Importance: Increasing volume confirms trend strength.
________________________________________
7. TECHNICAL INDICATORS
• RSI/ROC: Displays RSI (Relative Strength Index) and ROC (Rate of Change).
o Importance:
RSI > 65 → Overbought
RSI < 35 → Oversold
ROC → Momentum strength indicator
________________________________________
8. PRICE ZONE
• ZONE: Classifies current price as “PREMIUM” (above average), “DISCOUNT” (below average), or “EQUILIBRIUM.”
o Importance: Helps identify buying/selling opportunities based on mean-reversion logic.
________________________________________
9. CANDLE ANALYSIS
• AMPLITUDE: Shows current candle size in percentage and ticks.
o Importance: Candles above minimum amplitude threshold are considered trade-valid.
• FORMATION: Classifies candle as:
o HIGH INDECISION
o TOP REJECTION
o BOTTOM REJECTION
o CONVICTION
o MIXED
o Importance: Reflects market sentiment and psychology.
• WICKS: Displays upper and lower wick size in percentage.
o Importance: Longer wicks suggest rejection or indecision.
• RATIO: Ratio between total wick size and candle body.
o Importance: High ratio = indecision; low ratio = conviction.
________________________________________
10. TRENDS
• AMPLITUDE TREND: Indicates if amplitude is “INCREASING,” “DECREASING,” or “STABLE.”
o Importance: Increasing amplitude may signal rising volatility.
• CONVICTION TREND: Indicates recent candle conviction:
o STRONG UP
o STRONG DOWN
o INDECISIVE
o MIXED
o Importance: Measures the strength of recent candles.
________________________________________
11. PROBABILITY DIFFERENCE (DIF PROB)
• Shows the percentage difference between upward and downward probabilities, classified as:
o EXCELLENT: Very favorable
o GOOD: Significant
o MEDIUM: Moderate (avoid entering)
o MARKET LOSING STRENGTH: Small difference (avoid entering)
o UNSTABLE MARKET: Very small difference (do not trade)
o Importance: Higher difference = more directional clarity.
________________________________________
12. CONFIRMATIONS
• Shows how many consecutive confirmations of the current signal were achieved relative to the configured requirement.
o Importance: More confirmations increase reliability.
________________________________________
13. SCORE & CLASSIFICATION
• SCORE: Final score from 0 to 100, calculated based on multiple factors.
o Higher scores = better setups.
• CLASSIFICATION: Setup categorized as:
o A+ SETUP
o B SETUP
o C SETUP
o DO NOT TRADE
o Importance: Defines whether conditions are favorable.
________________________________________
14. ACTION
• ACTION: Suggests “BUY,” “SELL,” or “WAIT.”
o Importance: Final actionable signal.
________________________________________
DECISION LOGIC
The indicator uses a weighted combination of multiple factors:
1. Trend (wTrend): Based on the price relative to EMA50.
2. Volume (wVol): Based on recent volume vs. its average.
3. Zone (wZona): Based on price position within recent price range.
4. Support/Resistance (wSR): Based on strength of S/R levels.
5. MTF (wMTF): Timeframe alignment.
6. Distribution (wDist): Distribution of bullish, bearish, and neutral candles.
The final score integrates:
• Probability of upward movement
• Continuation bias
• MTF conflict
• Moving-average alignment
• Volume
• Extreme RSI conditions
________________________________________
FALSE-SIGNAL FILTERS
• Close-Only Mode: Updates calculations only on candle close.
• Minimum Candle Size: Ignores very small candles.
• Consecutive Confirmations: Requires repeated signal confirmation.
• Minimum Probability Difference: Enforces a minimum separation between bullish and bearish probabilities.
________________________________________
CONCLUSION
The Probabilistic Panel is a comprehensive tool that integrates multiple technical-analysis dimensions to deliver more reliable trading signals. Parameters must be adjusted according to the asset and timeframe.
Remember: no indicator is infallible.
Always combine it with risk management and additional confirmations.
Daily Pivot Breakout Strategy IndicatorTagline:
A pivot-based breakout system that identifies confirmed daily breakouts with momentum and volume filters, with precise entry timing across all timeframes.
How It Works:
This indicator detects strict pivot high breakouts on daily data, filtered by Rate of Change (ROC ≥30%) and Relative Volume (RVOL >1). It displays both the breakout confirmation signal and the next-day entry signal directly on your chart, regardless of timeframe.
Visual Signals:
Orange Pivot Line: The most recent confirmed pivot high (within 250-day lookback)
Day-0 Label (Teal): Appears on the breakout confirmation day (when price closes above daily pivot with filters met)
Entry Banner (Green): Appears on the next trading day at market open - your actual entry point
Cross-Timeframe Consistency:
Daily Chart: View the big picture - Day-0 on breakout bar, Entry on next bar
Any Timeframe: Logic remains consistent to daily pivots and data, signals adapt to show at the correct time
Built-in Alert Conditions:
5PivotBreakout_Scan (Day-0): Fires when breakout is confirmed. Use this for after-hours scanning to build watchlists of confirmed breakouts
5PivotBreakout_Strategy (Next): Fires at market open the next day. Use this to automate entries on confirmed breakouts
Typical Workflow:
Set up Day-0 alerts on your watchlist to catch breakouts as they happen
Review confirmed breakouts each evening
Set up Entry alerts on selected tickers to automate next-day execution (fires at market open)
Optional: Convert to strategy() for backtesting with custom exits (20% trail is good)
Key Features:
Strict pivot detection: No ties allowed - center must be highest point
Momentum filter: 100-day ROC ensures trending strength
Volume confirmation: 20-day RVOL validates participation
No repainting: Uses lookahead_off for realistic, tradeable signals
Customizable Inputs:
Pivot strength parameters (left/right bars)
Pivot lookback period
ROC period and minimum threshold
RVOL period
Toggle visibility of pivot line and labels
Note: This indicator is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always test thoroughly before live trading.
Fed Funds Rate-of-ChangeFed Funds Rate-of-Change
What it does:
This indicator pulls the Effective Federal Funds Rate (FRED:FEDFUNDS, monthly) and measures how quickly it’s changing over a user-defined lookback. It offers stabilized change metrics that avoid the “near-zero blow-up” you see with naive % ROC. The plot turns red only when the signal is below the lower threshold and heading down (i.e., value < –threshold and slope < 0).
This indicator is meant to be useful in monitoring fast cuts on the part of the FED - a signal that has preceded recession or market pullbacks in times prior.
Change modes: Percentage, log and delta.
Percent ROC (ε floor): 100 * (now - prev) / max(prev, ε)
Log change (ε): 100 * (ln(now + ε) - ln(prev + ε))
Delta (bps): (now - prev) * 100 (basis points; avoids percentage math)
Tip: For “least drama,” use Delta (bps). For relative change without explosions near zero, use Log change (ε).
Key inputs:
Lookback (months): ROC window in calendar months (because source is monthly).
Change Metric: one of the three options above.
ε (percentage points): small constant (e.g., 0.25 pp) used by Percent ROC (ε) and Log change (ε) to stabilize near-zero values.
EMA Smoothing length: light smoothing of the computed series.
Clip |value| at: optional hard cap to tame outliers (0 = off).
Threshold % / Threshold bps: lower/upper threshold band; unit adapts to the selected metric.
Plot as histogram: optional histogram view.
Coloring / signal logic
Red: value is below the lower threshold (–threshold) and the series is falling on the current bar.
How to use:
Add to any chart (timeframe doesn’t matter; data is monthly under the hood).
Pick a Change Metric and set Lookback (e.g., 3–6 months).
Choose a reasonable threshold:
Percent/Log: try 10–20%
Delta (bps): try 50–100 bps
Optionally smooth (EMA 3–6) and/or clip extreme spikes.
Interpretation
Sustained red often marks periods of accelerating downside in the Fed Funds change metric (e.g., policy easing momentum when using bps).
Neutral (gray) provides context without implying direction bias.
Notes & limitations
Source is monthly FRED series; values update on monthly closes and are stable (no intrabar repainting of the monthly series).
Threshold units switch automatically with the metric (%, %, or bps).
Smoothing/clip are convenience tools; adjust conservatively to avoid masking important shifts.
Optimized Trend-Momentum SignalsThis indicator combines trend, momentum, and volume-strength factors into a single buy/sell signal system. It integrates:
SMA 200 → Identifies the long-term trend (price above = bullish bias, below = bearish bias).
MACD (12,26,9) → Confirms momentum direction with line crossovers.
RSI (7) → Filters strength (above 50 = bullish, below 50 = bearish).
ROC (45) → Validates positive or negative rate of change.
Signal Logic:
Buy Signal → Price above SMA 200, MACD bullish, RSI > 50, and ROC > 0.
Sell Signal → Price below SMA 200, MACD bearish, RSI < 50, and ROC < 0.
Features:
Clear arrows for BUY and SELL signals.
Long-term SMA plotted for trend visualization.
Alerts built-in for real-time notifications.
This tool helps traders filter out noise and act only when all major confirmation factors align, reducing false signals and improving decision-making.
Alt Season vs USDT Flow DashboardWhat the script tells you (the signals)
It builds four “alt vs stables” lenses and colors the background when they agree.
ALT ex-ETH / STABLES (TOTAL3 / (USDT+USDC+DAI))
Think: “How much alt cap per $1 of dry-powder stables?”
Bullish when price is above its 200-day SMA and rising → risk appetite expanding toward smaller alts.
ALT Share of Risk-On ((TOTAL − STABLES − BTC − ETH) / (TOTAL − STABLES))
Of the non-stable crypto pie, how much is flowing to ex-BTC/ETH alts?
Uptrend = broadening alt participation (late-early to mid alt-season behavior).
Dominance Spread ((TOTAL3 / TOTAL) − (STABLES / TOTAL))
Alts’ share minus stables’ share.
Widening spread means stables are being converted into alts (not just into BTC).
Flow Ratio ROC(TOTAL3, N) / ROC(STABLES, N) (default N=30 days)
Compares alts’ growth rate to stable supply growth.
> 1 and sustained → alts expanding faster than new “dry powder” is appearing.
The background color (“regime”)
Green (ALT-on) when all three conditions align:
ALT/Stable > its SMA
Dominance Spread > its SMA
Flow Ratio > 1
Red (ALT-off) when the opposite holds.
No color = mixed/chop.
How to read it (quick playbook)
Early alt-season tell:
BTC.D starts to slip, total market cap (TOTAL) rising.
ALT/Stable breaks above its 200-SMA and stays there.
Dominance Spread climbs (alts gaining share, stables losing share).
Flow Ratio > 1 for a few weeks.
Maturing phase: ALT Share of Risk-On rises (money broadens from ETH/L1s → mid/small caps).
Exhaustion/false start: Flow Ratio dips < 1 or ALT/Stable loses the 200-SMA while BTC.D stabilizes or rises.
Practical tips
Timeframes: Make calls on 1D. Use 1W to avoid whipsaw; use 4H only for entries once the 1D regime is green.
Smoothing: If you see noisy spikes from market-cap revisions, add a light smoother (e.g., 7D SMA on the plotted lines).
Parameters:
Try ROC length 21–45 days.
Try SMA 150–250 days (200 is a good middle).
Confluence: Keep BTC.D and ETH.D in another pane. Best alt windows: BTC.D trending down, ETH.D flat-to-up initially, then ETH.D flattens as TOTAL3 momentum spreads to mid/small caps.
Risk checks: If USDT.D/USDC.D (stable dominance) spike up while your signals are green, that’s a caution flag (capital retreating to stables).
FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator [BackQuant]FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator
1. Concept and Rationale
The United States Federal Funds Rate is the anchor around which global dollar liquidity and risk-free yield expectations revolve. When the Fed hikes, borrowing costs rise, liquidity tightens and most risk assets encounter head-winds. When it cuts, liquidity expands, speculative appetite often recovers. Bitcoin, a 24-hour permissionless asset sometimes described as “digital gold with venture-capital-like convexity,” is particularly sensitive to macro-liquidity swings.
The FED Divergence Oscillator quantifies the behavioural gap between short-term monetary policy (proxied by the effective Fed Funds Rate) and Bitcoin’s own percentage price change. By converting each series into identical rate-of-change units, subtracting them, then optionally smoothing the result, the script produces a single bounded-yet-dynamic line that tells you, at a glance, whether Bitcoin is outperforming or underperforming the policy backdrop—and by how much.
2. Data Pipeline
• Fed Funds Rate – Pulled directly from the FRED database via the ticker “FRED:FEDFUNDS,” sampled at daily frequency to synchronise with crypto closes.
• Bitcoin Price – By default the script forces a daily timeframe so that both series share time alignment, although you can disable that and plot the oscillator on intraday charts if you prefer.
• User Source Flexibility – The BTC series is not hard-wired; you can select any exchange-specific symbol or even swap BTC for another crypto or risk asset whose interaction with the Fed rate you wish to study.
3. Math under the Hood
(1) Rate of Change (ROC) – Both the Fed rate and BTC close are converted to percent return over a user-chosen lookback (default 30 bars). This means a cut from 5.25 percent to 5.00 percent feeds in as –4.76 percent, while a climb from 25 000 to 30 000 USD in BTC over the same window converts to +20 percent.
(2) Divergence Construction – The script subtracts the Fed ROC from the BTC ROC. Positive values show BTC appreciating faster than policy is tightening (or falling slower than the rate is cutting); negative values show the opposite.
(3) Optional Smoothing – Macro series are noisy. Toggle “Apply Smoothing” to calm the line with your preferred moving-average flavour: SMA, EMA, DEMA, TEMA, RMA, WMA or Hull. The default EMA-25 removes day-to-day whips while keeping turning points alive.
(4) Dynamic Colour Mapping – Rather than using a single hue, the oscillator line employs a gradient where deep greens represent strong bullish divergence and dark reds flag sharp bearish divergence. This heat-map approach lets you gauge intensity without squinting at numbers.
(5) Threshold Grid – Five horizontal guides create a structured regime map:
• Lower Extreme (–50 pct) and Upper Extreme (+50 pct) identify panic capitulations and euphoria blow-offs.
• Oversold (–20 pct) and Overbought (+20 pct) act as early warning alarms.
• Zero Line demarcates neutral alignment.
4. Chart Furniture and User Interface
• Oscillator fill with a secondary DEMA-30 “shader” offers depth perception: fat ribbons often precede high-volatility macro shifts.
• Optional bar-colouring paints candles green when the oscillator is above zero and red below, handy for visual correlation.
• Background tints when the line breaches extreme zones, making macro inflection weeks pop out in the replay bar.
• Everything—line width, thresholds, colours—can be customised so the indicator blends into any template.
5. Interpretation Guide
Macro Liquidity Pulse
• When the oscillator spends weeks above +20 while the Fed is still raising rates, Bitcoin is signalling liquidity tolerance or an anticipatory pivot view. That condition often marks the embryonic phase of major bull cycles (e.g., March 2020 rebound).
• Sustained prints below –20 while the Fed is already dovish indicate risk aversion or idiosyncratic crypto stress—think exchange scandals or broad flight to safety.
Regime Transition Signals
• Bullish cross through zero after a long sub-zero stint shows Bitcoin regaining upward escape velocity versus policy.
• Bearish cross under zero during a hiking cycle tells you monetary tightening has finally started to bite.
Momentum Exhaustion and Mean-Reversion
• Touches of +50 (or –50) come rarely; they are statistically stretched events. Fade strategies either taking profits or hedging have historically enjoyed positive expectancy.
• Inside-bar candlestick patterns or lower-timeframe bearish engulfings simultaneously with an extreme overbought print make high-probability short scalp setups, especially near weekly resistance. The same logic mirrors for oversold.
Pair Trading / Relative Value
• Combine the oscillator with spreads like BTC versus Nasdaq 100. When both the FED Divergence oscillator and the BTC–NDQ relative-strength line roll south together, the cross-asset confirmation amplifies conviction in a mean-reversion short.
• Swap BTC for miners, altcoins or high-beta equities to test who is the divergence leader.
Event-Driven Tactics
• FOMC days: plot the oscillator on an hourly chart (disable ‘Force Daily TF’). Watch for micro-structural spikes that resolve in the first hour after the statement; rapid flips across zero can front-run post-FOMC swings.
• CPI and NFP prints: extremes reached into the release often mean positioning is one-sided. A reversion toward neutral in the first 24 hours is common.
6. Alerts Suite
Pre-bundled conditions let you automate workflows:
• Bullish / Bearish zero crosses – queue spot or futures entries.
• Standard OB / OS – notify for first contact with actionable zones.
• Extreme OB / OS – prime time to review hedges, take profits or build contrarian swing positions.
7. Parameter Playground
• Shorten ROC Lookback to 14 for tactical traders; lengthen to 90 for macro investors.
• Raise extreme thresholds (for example ±80) when plotting on altcoins that exhibit higher volatility than BTC.
• Try HMA smoothing for responsive yet smooth curves on intraday charts.
• Colour-blind users can easily swap bull and bear palette selections for preferred contrasts.
8. Limitations and Best Practices
• The Fed Funds series is step-wise; it only changes on meeting days. Rapid BTC oscillations in between may dominate the calculation. Keep that perspective when interpreting very high-frequency signals.
• Divergence does not equal causation. Crypto-native catalysts (ETF approvals, hack headlines) can overwhelm macro links temporarily.
• Use in conjunction with classical confirmation tools—order-flow footprints, market-profile ledges, or simple price action to avoid “pure-indicator” traps.
9. Final Thoughts
The FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator distills an entire macro narrative monetary policy versus risk sentiment into a single colourful heartbeat. It will not magically predict every pivot, yet it excels at framing market context, spotting stretches and timing regime changes. Treat it as a strategic compass rather than a tactical sniper scope, combine it with sound risk management and multi-factor confirmation, and you will possess a robust edge anchored in the world’s most influential interest-rate benchmark.
Trade consciously, stay adaptive, and let the policy-price tension guide your roadmap.
Uptrick: Universal Z-Score ValuationOverview
The Uptrick: Universal Z-Score Valuation is a tool designed to help traders spot when the market might be overreacting—whether that’s on the upside or the downside. It does this by combining the Z-scores of multiple key indicators into a single average, letting you see how far the current market conditions have stretched away from “normal.” This average is shown as a smooth line, supported by color-coded visuals, signal markers, optional background highlights, and a live breakdown table that shows the contribution of each indicator in real time. The focus here is on spotting potential reversals, not following trends. The indicator works well across all timeframes and asset classes, from fast intraday charts like the 1-minute and 5-minute, to higher timeframes such as the 4-hour, daily, or even weekly. Its universal design makes it suitable for any market — whether you're trading crypto, stocks, forex, or commodities.
Introduction
To understand what this indicator does, let’s start with the idea of a Z-score. In simple terms, a Z-score tells you how far a number is from the average of its recent history, measured in standard deviations. If the price of an asset is two standard deviations above its mean, that means it’s statistically “rare” or extended. That doesn’t guarantee a reversal—but it suggests the move is unusual enough to pay attention.
This concept isn’t new, but what this indicator does differently is apply the Z-score to a wide set of market signals—not just price. It looks at momentum, volatility, volume, risk-adjusted performance, and even institutional price baselines. Each of those indicators is normalized using Z-scores, and then they’re combined into one average. This gives you a single, easy-to-read line that summarizes whether the entire market is behaving abnormally. Instead of reacting to one indicator, you’re reacting to a statistically balanced blend.
Purpose
The goal of this script is to catch turning points—places where the market may be topping out or bottoming after becoming overstretched. It’s built for traders who want to fade sharp moves rather than follow trends. Think of moments when price explodes upward and starts pulling away from every moving average, volume spikes, volatility rises, and RSI shoots up. This tool is meant to spot those situations—not just when price is stretched, but when multiple different indicators agree that something is overdone.
Originality and Uniqueness
Most indicators that use Z-scores only apply them to one thing—price, RSI, or maybe Bollinger Bands. This one is different because it treats each indicator as a contributor to the full picture. You decide which ones to include, and the script averages them out. This makes the tool flexible but also deeply informative.
It doesn’t rely on complex or hidden math. It uses basic Z-score formulas, applies them to well-known indicators, and shows you the result. What makes it unique is the way it brings those signals together—statistically, visually, and interactively—so you can see what’s happening in the moment with full transparency. It’s not trying to be flashy or predictive. It’s just showing you when things have gone too far, too fast.
Inputs and Parameters
This indicator includes a wide range of configurable inputs, allowing users to customize which components are included in the Z-score average, how each indicator is calculated, and how results are displayed visually. Below is a detailed explanation of each input:
General Settings
Z-Score Lookback (default: 100): Number of bars used to calculate the mean and standard deviation for Z-score normalization. Larger values smooth the Z-scores; smaller values make them more reactive.
Bar Color Mode (default: None): Determines how bars are visually colored. Options include: None: No candle coloring applied. - Heat: Smooth gradient based on the Z-score value. - Latest Signal: Applies a solid color based on the most recent buy or sell signal
Boolean - General
Plot Universal Valuation Line (default: true): If enabled, plots the average Z-score (zAvg) line in the separate pane.
Show Signals (default: true): Displays labels ("𝓤𝓹" for buy, "𝓓𝓸𝔀𝓷" for sell) when zAvg crosses above or below user-defined thresholds.
Show Z-Score Table (default: true): Displays a live table listing each enabled indicator's Z-score and the current average.
Select Indicators
These toggles enable or disable each indicator from contributing to the Z-score average:
Use VWAP Z-Score (default: true)
Use Sortino Z-Score (default: true)
Use ROC Z-Score (default: true)
Use Price Z-Score (default: true)
Use MACD Histogram Z-Score (default: false)
Use Bollinger %B Z-Score (default: false)
Use Stochastic K Z-Score (default: false)
Use Volume Z-Score (default: false)
Use ATR Z-Score (default: false)
Use RSI Z-Score (default: false)
Use Omega Z-Score (default: true)
Use Sharpe Z-Score (default: true)
Only enabled indicators are included in the average. This modular design allows traders to tailor the signal mix to their preferences.
Indicator Lengths
These inputs control how each individual indicator is calculated:
MACD Fast Length (default: 12)
MACD Slow Length (default: 26)
MACD Signal Length (default: 9)
Bollinger Basis Length (default: 20): Used to compute the Bollinger %B.
Bollinger Deviation Multiplier (default: 2.0): Standard deviation multiplier for the Bollinger Band calculation.
Stochastic Length (default: 14)
ATR Length (default: 14)
RSI Length (default: 14)
ROC Length (default: 10)
Zones
These thresholds define key signal levels for the Z-score average:
Neutral Line Level (default: 0): Baseline for the average Z-score.
Bullish Zone Level (default: -1): Optional intermediate zone suggesting early bullish conditions.
Bearish Zone Level (default: 1): Optional intermediate zone suggesting early bearish conditions.
Z = +2 Line Level (default: 2): Primary threshold for bearish signals.
Z = +3 Line Level (default: 3): Extreme bearish warning level.
Z = -2 Line Level (default: -2): Primary threshold for bullish signals.
Z = -3 Line Level (default: -3): Extreme bullish warning level.
These zone levels are used to generate signals, fill background shading, and draw horizontal lines for visual reference.
Why These Indicators Were Merged
Each indicator in this script was chosen for a specific reason. They all measure something different but complementary.
The VWAP Z-score helps you see when price has moved far from the volume-weighted average, often used by institutions.
Sortino Ratio Z-score focuses only on downside risk, which is often more relevant to traders than overall volatility.
ROC Z-score shows how fast price is changing—strong momentum may burn out quickly.
Price Z-score is the raw measure of how far current price has moved from its mean.
RSI Z-score shows whether momentum itself is stretched.
MACD Histogram Z-score captures shifts in trend strength and acceleration.
%B (Bollinger) Z-score indicates how close price is to the upper or lower volatility envelope.
Stochastic K Z-score gives a sense of how high or low price is relative to its recent range.
Volume Z-score shows when trading activity is unusually high or low.
ATR Z-score gives a read on volatility, showing if price movement is expanding or contracting.
Sharpe Z-score measures reward-to-risk performance, useful for evaluating trend quality.
Omega Z-score looks at the ratio of good returns to bad ones, offering a more nuanced view of efficiency.
By normalizing each of these using Z-scores and averaging only the ones you turn on, the script creates a flexible, balanced view of the market’s statistical stretch.
Calculations
The core formula is the standard Z-score:
Z = (current value - average) / standard deviation
Every indicator uses this formula after it’s calculated using your chosen settings. For example, RSI is first calculated as usual, then its Z-score is calculated over your selected lookback period. The script does this for every indicator you enable. Then it averages those Z-scores together to create a single value: zAvg. That value is plotted and used to generate visual cues, signals, table values, background color changes, and candle coloring.
Sequence
Each selected indicator is calculated using your custom input lengths.
The Z-score of each indicator is computed using the shared lookback period.
All active Z-scores are added up and averaged.
The resulting zAvg value is plotted as a line.
Signal conditions check if zAvg crosses user-defined thresholds (default: ±2).
If enabled, the script plots buy/sell signal labels at those crossover points.
The candle color is updated using your selected mode (heatmap or signal-based).
If extreme Z-scores are reached, background highlighting is applied.
A live table updates with each individual Z-score so you know what’s driving the signal.
Features
This script isn’t just about stats—it’s about making them usable in real time. Every feature has a clear reason to exist, and they’re all there to give you a better read on market conditions.
1. Universal Z-Score Line
This is your primary reference. It reflects the average Z-score across all selected indicators. The line updates live and is color-coded to show how far it is from neutral. The further it gets from 0, the brighter the color becomes—cyan for deeply oversold conditions, magenta for overbought. This gives you instant feedback on how statistically “hot” or “cold” the market is, without needing to read any numbers.
2. Signal Labels (“𝓤𝓹” and “𝓓𝓸𝔀𝓷”)
When the average Z-score drops below your lower bound, you’ll see a "𝓤𝓹" label below the bar, suggesting potential bullish reversal conditions. When it rises above the upper bound, a "𝓓𝓸𝔀𝓷" label is shown above the bar—indicating possible bearish exhaustion. These labels are visually clear and minimal so they don’t clutter your chart. They're based on clear crossover logic and do not repaint.
3. Real-Time Z-Score Table
The table shows each indicator's individual Z-score and the final average. It updates every bar, giving you a transparent breakdown of what’s happening under the hood. If the market is showing an extreme average score, this table helps you pinpoint which indicators are contributing the most—so you’re not just guessing where the pressure is coming from.
4. Bar Coloring Modes
You can choose from three modes:
None: Keeps your candles clean and untouched.
Heat: Applies a smooth gradient color based on Z-score intensity. As conditions become more extreme, candle color transitions from neutral to either cyan (bullish pressure) or magenta (bearish pressure).
Latest Signal: Applies hard coloring based on the most recent signal—greenish for a buy, purple for a sell. This mode is great for tracking market state at a glance without relying on a gradient.
Every part of the candle is colored—body, wick, and border—for full visibility.
5. Background Highlighting
When zAvg enters an extreme zone (typically above +2 or below -2), the background shifts color to reflect the market’s intensity. These changes aren’t overwhelming—they’re light fills that act as ambient warnings, helping you stay aware of when price might be reaching a tipping point.
6. Customizable Zone Lines and Fills
You can define what counts as neutral, overbought, and oversold using manual inputs. Horizontal lines show your thresholds, and shaded regions highlight the most extreme zones (+2 to +3 and -2 to -3). These lines give you visual structure to understand where price currently stands in relation to your personal reversal model.
7. Modular Indicator Control
You don’t have to use all the indicators. You can enable or disable any of the 12 with a simple checkbox. This means you can build your own “blend” of market context—maybe you only care about RSI, price, and volume. Or maybe you want everything on. The script adapts accordingly, only averaging what you select.
8. Fully Customizable Sensitivity and Lengths
You can adjust the Z-score lookback length globally (default 100), and tweak individual indicator lengths separately. This lets you tune the indicator’s responsiveness to suit your trading style—slower for longer swings, faster for scalping.
9. Clean Integration with Any Chart Layout
All visual elements are designed to be informative without taking over your chart. The coloring is soft but clear, the labels are readable without being huge, and you can turn off any feature you don’t need. The indicator can work as a full dashboard or as a simple line with a couple of alerts—it’s up to you.
10. Precise, Real-Time Signal Logic
The crossover logic for signals is exact and only fires when the Z-score moves across your defined boundary. No estimation, no delay. Everything is calculated based on current and previous bar data, and nothing repaints or back-adjusts.
Conclusion
The Universal Z-Score Valuation indicator is a tool for traders who want a clear, unbiased way to detect overextension. Instead of relying on a single signal, you get a composite of several market perspectives—momentum, volatility, volume, and more—all standardized into a single view. The script gives you the freedom to control the logic, the visuals, and the components. Whether you use it as a confirmation tool or a primary signal source, it’s designed to give you clarity when markets become chaotic.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for research and educational use only. It does not constitute financial advice or guarantees of performance. All trading involves risk, and users should test any strategy thoroughly before applying it to live markets. Use this tool at your own discretion.
Momentum Trend Bands (MTB)📌 What Is the Momentum Trend Bands (MTB) Indicator?
The Momentum Trend Bands (MTB) is a custom-built trend detection indicator that blends momentum and volatility into a dynamic, visual system. Its core goal is to help traders identify the beginning and strength of a trend earlier than traditional tools like moving averages, while filtering out market noise.
🧠 What Is It Built On?
The indicator is built on two foundational concepts:
1. Rate of Change (ROC): This measures the speed at which the price is moving. We use a fast and a slow version of ROC and then calculate their difference. This difference gives us a momentum signal — it shows whether the price is gaining upward or downward strength.
2. Standard Deviation (Volatility): This shows how much the price fluctuates. By calculating it over a certain period, we can measure market noise and filter out weak, insignificant moves that might otherwise cause false signals.
Together, momentum shows direction, and volatility shows confidence.
🛠️ How Does It Work?
• The core of the indicator is a smoothed momentum signal, representing the net difference between fast and slow momentum.
• Around this signal, we build upper and lower bands — these are dynamic boundaries that expand or contract based on volatility.
• When the momentum breaks above or below these bands, it signals a strong directional move — suggesting the start or continuation of a trend.
The bands also serve a visual filter:
• If momentum stays within the bands, it implies the market is consolidating or ranging.
• When it exits the bands decisively, it implies strength in that direction.
📈 How to Use It?
1. Trend Entry:
o When the momentum signal rises above the upper band, it suggests a strong bullish trend may be starting.
o When the signal drops below the lower band, it indicates a bearish trend.
2. Stay Out of Chop:
o If the signal moves sideways within the bands, it’s best to avoid trading — the market is likely consolidating or ranging.
3. Visual Confirmation:
o The background color changes with the trend: green for bullish, red for bearish, gray for neutral. This makes it quick to read visually.
4. Signal Arrows:
o Small up or down arrows appear when trends begin, serving as early entry points.
⚙️ What Kind of Market Does It Work Best In?
• Trending Markets: MTB shines in markets with strong directional movement — whether up or down. It's designed to pick up momentum early and hold through trend continuation.
• Volatile Instruments: The built-in volatility filter helps in markets like crypto or commodities where price action is fast and erratic.
• Avoid Flat or Low-Volume Conditions: In sideways markets, MTB may stay gray or flip often — these are not ideal times to trade using this indicator alone.
💎 Why Is It Unique?
Unlike many indicators that react slowly (like moving averages) or trigger too often (like raw momentum), MTB balances early detection with reliability. Its unique combination of:
• ROC difference for directional intent,
• Smoothing for signal clarity,
• Bands scaled by volatility for robustness,
…makes it stand apart from commonly available indicators on platforms like TradingView.
DECODE Global Liquidity IndexDECODE Global Liquidity Index 🌊
The DECODE Global Liquidity Index is a powerful tool designed to track and aggregate global liquidity by combining data from the world's 13 largest economies. It offers a comprehensive view of financial liquidity, providing crucial insights into the underlying currents that can influence asset prices and market trends.
The economies covered are: United States, China, European Union, Japan, India, United Kingdom, Brazil, Canada, Russia, South Korea, Australia, Mexico, and Indonesia. The European Union accounts for major individual economies within the EU like Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, etc.
Key Features:
1. Customizable Liquidity Sources
Include Global M2: You can opt to include the M2 money supply from the 13 listed economies. M2 is a broad measure of money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, money market securities, mutual funds, and other time deposits. (Note: Australia uses M3 as its primary measure, which is included when M2 is selected for Australia).
Include Central Bank Balance Sheets (CBBS): Alternatively, or in addition, you can include the total assets held by the central banks of these economies. Central bank balance sheets expand or contract based on monetary policy operations like quantitative easing (QE) or tightening (QT).
Combined View: If you select both M2 and CBBS, and data is available for both, the indicator will display an average of the two aggregated values. If only one source type is selected, or if data for one type is unavailable despite both being selected, the indicator will display the single available and selected component. This provides flexibility in how you define and analyze global liquidity.
2. Lead/Lag Analysis (Forward Projection):
Lead Offset (Days): This feature allows you to project the liquidity index forward by a specified number of days.
Why it's useful: Global liquidity changes can often be a leading indicator for various asset classes, particularly those sensitive to risk appetite, like Bitcoin or growth stocks. These assets might lag shifts in liquidity. By applying a lead (e.g., 90 days), you can shift the liquidity data forward on your chart to more easily visualize potential correlations and identify if current asset price movements might be responding to past changes in liquidity.
3. Rate of Change (RoC) Oscillator:
Year-over-Year % View: Instead of viewing aggregate liquidity, you can switch to a Year-over-Year (YoY%) Rate of Change (ROC) oscillator.
Why it's useful:
Momentum Identification: The ROC highlights the speed and direction of liquidity changes. Positive values indicate liquidity is increasing compared to a year ago, while negative values show it's decreasing.
Turning Points: Oscillators make it easier to spot potential accelerations, decelerations, or reversals in liquidity trends. A cross above the zero line can signal strengthening liquidity momentum, while a cross below can signal weakening momentum.
Cycle Analysis: It helps in assessing the cyclical nature of liquidity provision and its potential impact on market cycles.
This indicator aims to provide a clear, customizable, and insightful measure of global liquidity to aid traders and investors in their market analysis.
Dr Avinash Talele momentum indicaterTrend and Volatility Metrics
EMA10, EMA20, EMA50:
Show the percentage distance of the current price from the 10, 20, and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages.
Positive values indicate the price is above the moving average (bullish momentum).
Negative values indicate the price is below the moving average (bearish or corrective phase).
Use: Helps traders spot if a stock is extended or pulling back to support.
RVol (Relative Volume):
Compares current volume to the 20-day average.
Positive values mean higher-than-average trading activity (potential institutional interest).
Negative values mean lower activity (less conviction).
Use: High RVol often precedes strong moves.
ADR (Average Daily Range):
Shows the average daily price movement as a percentage.
Use: Higher ADR = more volatility = more trading opportunities.
50D Avg. Vol & 50D Avg. Vol ₹:
The 50-day average volume (in millions) and value traded (in crores).
Use: Confirms liquidity and suitability for larger trades.
ROC (Rate of Change) Section
1W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 12M:
Show the percentage price change over the last 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months.
Positive values (green) = uptrend, Negative values (red) = downtrend.
Use: Quickly see if the stock is gaining or losing momentum over different timeframes.
Momentum Section
1M, 3M, 6M:
Show the percentage gain from the lowest price in the last 1, 3, and 6 months.
Use: Measures how much the stock has bounced from recent lows, helping find strong rebounds or new leaders.
52-Week High/Low Section
From 52WH / From 52WL:
Show how far the current price is from its 52-week high and low, as a percentage.
Closer to 52WH = strong uptrend; Closer to 52WL = possible value or turnaround setup.
Use: Helps traders identify stocks breaking out to new highs or rebounding off lows.
U/D Ratio
U/D Ratio:
The ratio of up-volume to down-volume over the last 50 days.
Above 1 = more buying volume (bullish), Below 1 = more selling volume (bearish).
Use: Confirms accumulation or distribution.
How This Table Helps Analysts and Traders
Instant Trend Assessment:
With EMA distances and ROC, analysts can instantly see if the stock is trending, consolidating, or reversing.
Momentum Confirmation:
ROC and Momentum sections highlight stocks with strong recent moves, ideal for momentum and breakout traders.
Liquidity and Volatility Check:
Volume and ADR ensure the stock is tradable and has enough price movement to justify a trade.
Relative Positioning:
52-week high/low stats show whether the stock is near breakout levels or potential reversal zones.
Volume Confirmation:
RVol and U/D ratio help confirm if moves are backed by real buying/selling interest.
Actionable Insights:
By combining these metrics, traders can filter for stocks with strong trends, robust momentum, and institutional backing—ideal for swing, position, or even intraday trading.
ATR - Asymmetric Turbulence Ribbon🧭 Asymmetric Turbulence Ribbon (ATR)
The Asymmetric Turbulence Ribbon (ATR) is an enhanced and reimagined version of the standard Average True Range (ATR) indicator. It visualizes not just raw volatility, but the structure, momentum, and efficiency of volatility through a multi-layered visual approach.
It contains two distinct visual systems:
1. A zero-centered histogram that expresses how current volatility compares to its historical average, with intensity and color showing speed and conviction
2. A braided ribbon made of dual ATR-based moving averages that highlight transitions in volatility behavior—whether volatility is expanding or contracting
The name reflects its purpose: to capture asymmetric, evolving turbulence in market behavior, through structure-aware volatility tracking.
_______________________________________________________________
🔧 Inputs (Fibonacci defaults)
ATR Length
Lookback period for ATR calculation (default: 13)
ATR Base Avg. Length
Moving average period used as the zero baseline for histogram (default: 55)
ATR ROC Lookback
Number of bars to measure rate of change for histogram color mapping (default: 8)
Timeframe Override
Optionally calculate ATR values from a higher or fixed timeframe (e.g., 1D) for macro-volatility overlay
Show Ribbon Fill
Toggles colored fill between ATR EMA and HMA lines
Show ATR MAs
Toggles visibility of ATR EMA and HMA lines
Show Crossover Markers
Shows directional triangle markers where ATR EMA and HMA cross
Show Histogram
Toggles the entire histogram display
_______________________________________________________________
📊 Histogram Component: Volatility Energy Profile
The histogram shows how far the current ATR is from its moving average baseline, centered around zero. This lets you interpret volatility pressure—whether it's expanding, contracting, or preparing to reverse.
To complement this, the indicator also plots the raw ATR line in aqua. This is the actual average true range value—used internally in both the histogram and ribbon calculations. By default, it appears as a slightly thicker line, providing a clear reference point for comparing historical volatility trends and absolute levels.
Use the baseline ATR to:
- Compare real-time volatility to previous peaks or troughs
- Monitor how ATR behaves near histogram flips or ribbon crossovers
- Evaluate volatility phases in absolute terms alongside relative momentum
The ATR line is particularly helpful for users who want to keep tabs on raw volatility values while still benefiting from the enhanced visual storytelling of the histogram and ribbon systems.
Each histogram bar is colored based on the rate of change (ROC) in ATR: The faster ATR rises or falls, the more intense the color. Meanwhile, the opacity of each bar is adjusted by the effort/result ratio of the price candle (body vs. range), showing how much price movement was achieved with conviction.
Color Interpretation:
🔴 Red
Strong volatility expansion
Market entering or deepening into a volatility burst
Seen during breakouts, panic moves, or macro shock events
Often accompanied by large real candle bodies
🟠 Orange
Moderate volatility expansion
Heating up phase, often precedes breakouts
Common in strong trending environments
Signals tightening before acceleration
🟡 Yellow
Mild volatility increase
Transitional state—energy building, not yet exploding
Appears in early trend development or pullbacks
🟢 Green
Mild volatility contraction
ATR cooling off
Seen during consolidation, reversion, or range balance
Good time to assess upcoming directional setups
🔵 Aqua
Moderate compression
Volatility is clearly declining
Signals consolidation within larger structure
Pre-breakout zones often form here
🔵 Deep Blue
Strong volatility compression
Market is coiling or dormant
Can signal upcoming squeeze or fade environment
Often followed by sharp expansion
Opacity scaling:
Brighter bars = efficient, directional price action (strong bodies)
Faded bars = indecision, chop, absorption, or wick-heavy structure
Together, color and opacity give a 2D view of market volatility: Hue = the type and direction of volatility
Opacity = the quality and structure behind it
Use this to gauge whether volatility is rising with conviction, fading into neutrality, or compressing toward breakout potential.
_______________________________________________________________
🪡 Ribbon Component: Volatility Rhythm Structure
The ribbon overlays two moving averages of ATR:
EMA (yellow) – faster, more reactive
HMA (orange) – smoother, more rhythmic
Their relationship creates the ribbon logic:
Yellow fill (EMA > HMA)
Short-term volatility is increasing faster than the longer-term rhythm
Signals active expansion and engagement
Orange fill (HMA > EMA)
Volatility is decaying or leveling off
Suggests possible exhaustion, pullback, or range
Crossover triangle markers (optional, off by default to avoid clutter) identify the moment of shift in volatility phase.
The ribbon reflects the shape of volatility over time—ideal for mapping cyclical energy shifts, transitional states, and alignment between current and average volatility.
_______________________________________________________________
📐 Strategy Application
Use the Asymmetric Turbulence Ribbon to:
- Detect volatility expansions before breakouts or directional runs
- Spot compression zones that precede structural ruptures
- Visually separate efficient moves from noisy market activity
- Confirm or fade trade setups based on underlying energy state
- Track the volatility environment across multiple timeframes using the override
_______________________________________________________________
🎯 Ideal Timeframes
Designed to function across all timeframes, but particularly powerful on intraday to daily ranges (1H to 1D)
Use the timeframe override to anchor your chart in higher-timeframe volatility context, like daily ATR behavior influencing a 1H setup.
_______________________________________________________________
🧬 Customization Tips
- Increase ATR ROC Lookback for smoother color transitions
- Extend ATR Base Avg Length for more macro-driven histogram centering
- Disable the histogram for ribbon-only rhythm view
- Use opacity and color shifts in the histogram to detect stealth energy builds
- Align ATR phases with structure or order flow tools for high-quality setups
Global Liquidity Index with Editable DEMA + 107 Day OffsetGlobal Liquidity DEMA (107-Day Lead)
This indicator visualizes a smoothed version of global central bank liquidity with a forward time shift of 107 days. The concept is based on the macroeconomic observation that markets tend to lag changes in global liquidity — particularly from central banks like the Federal Reserve, ECB, BOJ, and PBOC.
The script uses a Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) to smooth the combined balance sheets and money supply inputs. It then offsets the result into the future by 107 days, allowing you to visually align liquidity trends with delayed market reactions. A second plot (ROC SMA) is included to help identify liquidity momentum shifts.
🔍 How to Use:
Add this indicator to any chart (S&P 500, BTC, Gold, etc.)
Compare price action to the forward-shifted liquidity trend
Look for divergence, confirmation, or crossovers with price
Use as a macro timing tool for long-term entries/exits
📌 Included Features:
Editable DEMA smoothing length
ROC + SMA overlay for momentum signals
Fixed 107-day forward projection
Includes main DEMA and ROC SMA both real-time and shifted
Master Global Liquidity Shifted 75 DaysThe Global Liquidity Index is a Pine Script (version 5) technical indicator designed to measure and visualize global financial liquidity by aggregating data from various central bank balance sheets and money supply metrics. The indicator is plotted as an overlay on the price chart using the left scale, with the entire line shifted left by 75 days.
Key features:
Data Sources: Incorporates balance sheet data from major central banks including the Federal Reserve (FED), European Central Bank (ECB), People's Bank of China (PBC), Bank of Japan (BOJ), and other central banks, along with optional M2 money supply data from various countries.
Components: Includes options to toggle specific liquidity factors such as FED balance sheet, Treasury General Account (TGA), Reverse Repurchase Agreements (RRP), and regional M2 money supplies, all converted to USD.
75-Day Shift: The indicator's output is shifted left by 75 days on the chart, aligning historical liquidity data with earlier price action, with this shift period adjustable via the "Shift Days Left" input.
Calculations:
Computes a total liquidity value by summing enabled central bank and M2 data (adjusted for RRP and TGA as drains)
Scales the total by dividing by 1 trillion (10^12)
Applies a Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Rate of Change (ROC) with user-defined periods
Final output is either the SMA of ROC or SMA alone, depending on ROC length
Visualization: Plots the shifted result as a yellow line with a linewidth of 2.
Enhanced Fuzzy SMA Analyzer (Multi-Output Proxy) [FibonacciFlux]EFzSMA: Decode Trend Quality, Conviction & Risk Beyond Simple Averages
Stop Relying on Lagging Averages Alone. Gain a Multi-Dimensional Edge.
The Challenge: Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) tell you where the price was , but they fail to capture the true quality, conviction, and sustainability of a trend. Relying solely on price crossing an average often leads to chasing weak moves, getting caught in choppy markets, or missing critical signs of trend exhaustion. Advanced traders need a more sophisticated lens to navigate complex market dynamics.
The Solution: Enhanced Fuzzy SMA Analyzer (EFzSMA)
EFzSMA is engineered to address these limitations head-on. It moves beyond simple price-average comparisons by employing a sophisticated Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) that intelligently integrates multiple critical market factors:
Price deviation from the SMA ( adaptively normalized for market volatility)
Momentum (Rate of Change - ROC)
Market Sentiment/Overheat (Relative Strength Index - RSI)
Market Volatility Context (Average True Range - ATR, optional)
Volume Dynamics (Volume relative to its MA, optional)
Instead of just a line on a chart, EFzSMA delivers a multi-dimensional assessment designed to give you deeper insights and a quantifiable edge.
Why EFzSMA? Gain Deeper Market Insights
EFzSMA empowers you to make more informed decisions by providing insights that simple averages cannot:
Assess True Trend Quality, Not Just Location: Is the price above the SMA simply because of a temporary spike, or is it supported by strong momentum, confirming volume, and stable volatility? EFzSMA's core fuzzyTrendScore (-1 to +1) evaluates the health of the trend, helping you distinguish robust moves from noise.
Quantify Signal Conviction: How reliable is the current trend signal? The Conviction Proxy (0 to 1) measures the internal consistency among the different market factors analyzed by the FIS. High conviction suggests factors are aligned, boosting confidence in the trend signal. Low conviction warns of conflicting signals, uncertainty, or potential consolidation – acting as a powerful filter against chasing weak moves.
// Simplified Concept: Conviction reflects agreement vs. conflict among fuzzy inputs
bullStrength = strength_SB + strength_WB
bearStrength = strength_SBe + strength_WBe
dominantStrength = max(bullStrength, bearStrength)
conflictingStrength = min(bullStrength, bearStrength) + strength_N
convictionProxy := (dominantStrength - conflictingStrength) / (dominantStrength + conflictingStrength + 1e-10)
// Modifiers (Volatility/Volume) applied...
Anticipate Potential Reversals: Trends don't last forever. The Reversal Risk Proxy (0 to 1) synthesizes multiple warning signs – like extreme RSI readings, surging volatility, or diverging volume – into a single, actionable metric. High reversal risk flags conditions often associated with trend exhaustion, providing early warnings to protect profits or consider counter-trend opportunities.
Adapt to Changing Market Regimes: Markets shift between high and low volatility. EFzSMA's unique Adaptive Deviation Normalization adjusts how it perceives price deviations based on recent market behavior (percentile rank). This ensures more consistent analysis whether the market is quiet or chaotic.
// Core Idea: Normalize deviation by recent volatility (percentile)
diff_abs_percentile = ta.percentile_linear_interpolation(abs(raw_diff), normLookback, percRank) + 1e-10
normalized_diff := raw_diff / diff_abs_percentile
// Fuzzy sets for 'normalized_diff' are thus adaptive to volatility
Integrate Complexity, Output Clarity: EFzSMA distills complex, multi-factor analysis into clear, interpretable outputs, helping you cut through market noise and focus on what truly matters for your decision-making process.
Interpreting the Multi-Dimensional Output
The true power of EFzSMA lies in analyzing its outputs together:
A high Trend Score (+0.8) is significant, but its reliability is amplified by high Conviction (0.9) and low Reversal Risk (0.2) . This indicates a strong, well-supported trend.
Conversely, the same high Trend Score (+0.8) coupled with low Conviction (0.3) and high Reversal Risk (0.7) signals caution – the trend might look strong superficially, but internal factors suggest weakness or impending exhaustion.
Use these combined insights to:
Filter Entry Signals: Require minimum Trend Score and Conviction levels.
Manage Risk: Consider reducing exposure or tightening stops when Reversal Risk climbs significantly, especially if Conviction drops.
Time Exits: Use rising Reversal Risk and falling Conviction as potential signals to take profits.
Identify Regime Shifts: Monitor how the relationship between the outputs changes over time.
Core Technology (Briefly)
EFzSMA leverages a Mamdani-style Fuzzy Inference System. Crisp inputs (normalized deviation, ROC, RSI, ATR%, Vol Ratio) are mapped to linguistic fuzzy sets ("Low", "High", "Positive", etc.). A rules engine evaluates combinations (e.g., "IF Deviation is LargePositive AND Momentum is StrongPositive THEN Trend is StrongBullish"). Modifiers based on Volatility and Volume context adjust rule strengths. Finally, the system aggregates these and defuzzifies them into the Trend Score, Conviction Proxy, and Reversal Risk Proxy. The key is the system's ability to handle ambiguity and combine multiple, potentially conflicting factors in a nuanced way, much like human expert reasoning.
Customization
While designed with robust defaults, EFzSMA offers granular control:
Adjust SMA, ROC, RSI, ATR, Volume MA lengths.
Fine-tune Normalization parameters (lookback, percentile). Note: Fuzzy set definitions for deviation are tuned for the normalized range.
Configure Volatility and Volume thresholds for fuzzy sets. Tuning these is crucial for specific assets/timeframes.
Toggle visual elements (Proxies, BG Color, Risk Shapes, Volatility-based Transparency).
Recommended Use & Caveats
EFzSMA is a sophisticated analytical tool, not a standalone "buy/sell" signal generator.
Use it to complement your existing strategy and analysis.
Always validate signals with price action, market structure, and other confirming factors.
Thorough backtesting and forward testing are essential to understand its behavior and tune parameters for your specific instruments and timeframes.
Fuzzy logic parameters (membership functions, rules) are based on general heuristics and may require optimization for specific market niches.
Disclaimer
Trading involves substantial risk. EFzSMA is provided for informational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. No guarantee of profit is made or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use rigorous risk management practices.
