Value At RiskThe Value at Risk Channel (VaR Channel) is a trading indicator designed to assist traders in managing their risk exposure effectively. By allowing users to select a specific time period and a probability value, this indicator generates upper and lower limits that the price might potentially attain within the chosen timeframe and probability range.
CONCEPTS
This indicator employs the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) calculation, a crucial metric in risk management. VaR quantifies the potential financial loss within a position, portfolio, or company over a defined time period. Financial institutions like banks and investment firms use VaR to estimate the extent and likelihood of potential losses in their portfolios.
The "historical method" is utilized to compute VaR within the indicator. This method analyzes the historical performance of returns and constructs a histogram representing the statistical distribution of past returns. Assuming returns adhere to a normal distribution, probabilities are assigned to different return values based on their position in the distribution percentile.
HOW TO USE
Suppose you wish to plot upper and lower price limits for a 4-hour period with a 5% probability. Access the indicator's Settings tab and set the Timeframe parameter to "4 hours" while configuring the Probability parameter to 5.0.
The indicator serves as a tool to determine appropriate Stop-Loss levels triggering with low probability. Additionally, it helps gauge the likelihood of triggering such levels.
Likewise, you can assess the probability of your desired Take-Profit level being reached within a specified time frame. For instance, if you anticipate your target to be achieved within a week, set the Timeframe parameter to "1 week" and adjust the Probability parameter to align the VaR channel's limits with your Take-Profit level. The resulting Probability parameter value reflects the likelihood of your target being met within the expected time frame.
This indicator proves valuable for evaluating and managing risk, as well as refining trading strategies. If you discover other applications for this indicator, feel free to share them in the comments!
SETTINGS
Timeframe: Designates the time period within which the price might touch the VaR channel's upper or lower boundary, considering the specified Probability parameter.
Probability: Defines the likelihood of the price reaching the VaR channel's upper or lower limit during the timeframe determined by the Timeframe parameter.
Window: Establishes the historical period (number of past bars) utilized for VaR calculation.
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Fair value bands / quantifytools— Overview
Fair value bands, like other band tools, depict dynamic points in price where price behaviour is normal or abnormal, i.e. trading at/around mean (price at fair value) or deviating from mean (price outside fair value). Unlike constantly readjusting standard deviation based bands, fair value bands are designed to be smooth and constant, based on typical historical deviations. The script calculates pivots that take place above/below fair value basis and forms median deviation bands based on this information. These points are then multiplied up to 3, representing more extreme deviations.
By default, the script uses OHLC4 and SMA 20 as basis for the bands. Users can form their preferred fair value basis using following options:
Price source
- Standard OHLC values
- HL2 (High + low / 2)
- OHLC4 (Open + high + low + close / 4)
- HLC3 (High + low + close / 3)
- HLCC4 (High + low + close + close / 4)
Smoothing
- SMA
- EMA
- HMA
- RMA
- WMA
- VWMA
- Median
Once fair value basis is established, some additional customization options can be employed:
Trend mode
Direction based
Cross based
Trend modes affect fair value basis color that indicates trend direction. Direction based trend considers only the direction of the defined fair value basis, i.e. pointing up is considered an uptrend, vice versa for downtrend. Cross based trends activate when selected source (same options as price source) crosses fair value basis. These sources can be set individually for uptrend/downtrend cross conditions. By default, the script uses cross based trend mode with low and high as sources.
Cross based (downtrend not triggered) vs. direction based (downtrend triggered):
Threshold band
Threshold band is calculated using typical deviations when price is trading at fair value basis. In other words, a little bit of "wiggle room" is added around the mean based on expected deviation. This feature is useful for cross based trends, as it allows filtering insignificant crosses that are more likely just noise. By default, threshold band is calculated based on 1x median deviation from mean. Users can increase/decrease threshold band width via input menu for more/less noise filtering, e.g. 2x threshold band width would require price to cross wiggle room that is 2x wider than typical, 0x erases threshold band altogether.
Deviation bands
Width of deviation bands by default is based on 1x median deviations and can be increased/decreased in a similar manner to threshold bands.
Each combination of customization options produces varying behaviour in the bands. To measure the behaviour and finding fairest representation of fair and unfair value, some data is gathered.
— Fair value metrics
Space between each band is considered a lot, named +3, +2, +1, -1, -2, -3. For each lot, time spent and volume relative to volume moving average (SMA 20) is recorded each time price is trading in a given lot:
Depending on the asset, timeframe and chosen fair value basis, shape of the distributions vary. However, practically always time is distributed in a normal bell curve shape, being highest at lots +1 to -1, gradually decreasing the further price is from the mean. This is hardly surprising, but it allows accurately determining dynamic areas of normal and abnormal price behaviour (i.e. low risk area between +1 and -1, high risk area between +-2 to +-3). Volume on the other hand is typically distributed the other way around, being lowest at lots +1 to -1 and highest at +-2 to +-3. When time and volume are distributed like so, we can conclude that 1) price being outside fair value is a rare event and 2) the more price is outside fair value, the more anomaly behaviour in volume we tend to find.
Viewing metric calculations
Metric calculation highlights can be enabled from the input menu, resulting in a lot based coloring and visibility of each lot counter (time, cumulative relative volume and average relative volume) in data window:
— Alerts
Available alerts are the following:
Individual
- High crossing deviation band (bands +1 to +3 )
- Low crossing deviation band (bands -1 to -3 )
- Low at threshold band in an uptrend
- High at threshold band in a downtrend
- New uptrend
- New downtrend
Grouped
- New uptrend or downtrend
- Deviation band cross (+1 or -1)
- Deviation band cross (+2 or -2)
- Deviation band cross (+3 or -3)
— Practical guide
Example #1 : Risk on/risk off trend following
Ideal trend stays inside fair value and provides sufficient cool offs between the moves. When this is the case, fair value bands can be used for sensible entry/exit levels within the trend.
Example #2 : Mean reversions
When price shows exuberance into an extreme deviation, followed by a stall and signs of exhaustion (wicks), an opportunity for mean reversion emerges. The higher the deviation, the more volatility in the move, the more signalling of exhaustion, the better.
Example #3 : Tweaking bands for desired behaviour
The faster the length of fair value basis, the more momentum price needs to hit extreme deviation levels, as bands too are moving faster alongside price. Decreasing fair value basis length typically leads to more quick and aggressive deviations and less steady trends outside fair value.
pricing_tableThis script helps you evaluate the fair value of an option. It poses the question "if I bought or sold an option under these circumstances in the past, would it have expired in the money, or worthless? What would be its expected value, at expiration, if I opened a position at N standard deviations, given the volatility forecast, with M days to expiration at the close of every previous trading day?"
The default (and only) "hv" volatility forecast is based on the assumption that today's volatility will hold for the next M days.
To use this script, only one step is mandatory. You must first select days to expiration. The script will not do anything until this value is changed from the default (-1). These should be CALENDAR days. The script will convert to these to business days for forecasting and valuation, as trading in most contracts occurs over ~250 business days per year.
Adjust any other variables as desired:
model: the volatility forecasting model
window: the number of periods for a lagged model (e.g. hv)
filter: a filter to remove forecasts from the sample
filter type: "none" (do not use the filter), "less than" (keep forecasts when filter < volatility), "greater than" (keep forecasts when filter > volatility)
filter value: a whole number percentage. see example below
discount rate: to discount the expected value to present value
precision: number of decimals in output
trim outliers: omit upper N % of (generally itm) contracts
The theoretical values are based on history. For example, suppose days to expiration is 30. On every bar, the 30 days ago N deviation forecast value is compared to the present price. If the price is above the forecast value, the contract has expired in the money; otherwise, it has expired worthless. The theoretical value is the average of every such sample. The itm probabilities are calculated the same way.
The default (and only) volatility model is a 20 period EWMA derived historical (realized) volatility. Feel free to extend the script by adding your own.
The filter parameters can be used to remove some forecasts from the sample.
Example A:
filter:
filter type: none
filter value:
Default: the filter is not used; all forecasts are included in the the sample.
Example B:
filter: model
filter type: less than
filter value: 50
If the model is "hv", this will remove all forecasts when the historical volatility is greater than fifty.
Example C:
filter: rank
filter type: greater than
filter value: 75
If the model volatility is in the top 25% of the previous year's range, the forecast will be included in the sample apart from "model" there are some common volatility indexes to choose from, such as Nasdaq (VXN), crude oil (OVX), emerging markets (VXFXI), S&P; (VIX) etc.
Refer to the middle-right table to see the current forecast value, its rank among the last 252 days, and the number of business days until
expiration.
NOTE: This script is meant for the daily chart only.
RSI-VWAP Indicator %█ OVERALL
Simple and effective script that, as you already know, uses vwap as source of the rsi, and with good results as long as the market has no long-term downtrend.
RsiVwap = rsi (vwap (close), Length)
The default settings are for BTC in a 30 minute time frame. For other pairs and time frames you just have to play with the settings.
█ FEATURES
• The option to start trading from a certain date has been added.
• To make the profit more progressive, a percentage of your equity is used for entries and a percentage of your position is used for closings.
• The option to trade in Spot mode has been added, since, for the TradingView backtest, the money is infinite and if you do not limit it somehow,
it would offer you much better profits than the live trading.
QuantityOnLong = Spot ? (EquityPercent / 100) * ((strategy.equity / close) - strategy.position_size) : (EquityPercent / 100) * (strategy.equity / close)
• The option to stop the system when the drawdown exceeds the fixed limit has been added.
Drawdown, as you already know, is a very important measure of risk in trading systems.
The maximum drawdown will tell us what the maximum loss of a trading system has been during a period. This maximum loss is determined by:
strategy.risk.max_drawdown(Risk, strategy.percent_of_equity)
• Leverage plotted on labels added.
█ ALERTS
To enjoy the benefits of automatic trading, TradingView alerts can be used as direct buy-sell orders on spot, or long-close orders with leverage.
Currently there are Chrome extensions that act as a bridge between TradingView and your Exchange or Broker.
This is an example of syntax for this type of extensions. Copy and paste a message like this into the alert window:
{{strategy.order.action}} @ {{strategy.order.price}} | e = {{exchange}} a = account s = {{ticker}} b = {{strategy.order.action}} {{strategy.order.alert_message}}
█ NOTE
Certain Risks of Live Algorithmic Trading You Should Know:
• Backtesting cannot assure actual results.
• The relevant market might fail or behave unexpectedly.
• Your broker may experience failures in its infrastructure, fail to execute your orders in a correct or timely fashion or reject your orders.
• The system you use for generating trading orders, communicating those orders to your broker, and receiving queries and trading results from your broker may fail.
• Time lag at various point in live trading might cause unexpected behavior.
• The systems of third parties in addition to those of the provider from which we obtain various services, your broker, and the applicable securities market may fail or malfunction.
█ THANKS
Thanks to TradingView, its Pine code, its community and especially those Pine wizards who post their ideas that helps us to learn.
If the world is heading toward a equitable new world economic order, let's get rich first ...
Happy trading!
Rolling midpointsThe script made for research purposes which plots these statistics of a given window: Mid-range (max + min)/2, Lower midpoint (mid-range + min)/2, and Higher midpoint (mid-range + max)/2.
This could be interesting when checking periods with sample size <= 0, or checking distros with srs kurtosis values.
Mean & median are also there.
Percentage Change Comparison [BVCC]This script allows you to input 2 different coins and plot % changes against each other.
Look Back is adjustable to account for different time frame windows. Default is 1, so each line will be graphed on a 1:1 ratio with the candle period selected on the chart. raising this number to 24 will plot the change across every 24 candles and so on. It's pretty interesting to move the input dialogue window out of the way and change this number, watching how the % gain comparisons change in real time.
Default coins to compare are set to BTCUSD and ETHUSD @ coinbase.
GMO (Gyroscopic Momentum Oscillator) GMO
Overview
This indicator fuses multiple advanced concepts to give traders a comprehensive view of market momentum, volatility, and potential turning points. It leverages the Gyroscopic Momentum Oscillator (GMO) foundation and layers on IQR-based bands, dynamic ATR-adjusted OB/OS levels, torque filtering, and divergence detection. The outcome is a versatile tool that can assist in identifying both short-term squeezes and long-term reversal zones while detecting subtle shifts in momentum acceleration.
Key Components:
Gyroscopic Momentum Oscillator (GMO) – A physics-inspired metric capturing trend stability and momentum by treating price dynamics as “angle,” “angular velocity,” and “inertia.”
IQR Bands – Highlight statistically typical oscillation ranges, providing insight into short-term squeezes and potential near-term trend shifts.
ATR-Adjusted OB/OS Levels – Dynamic thresholds for overbought/oversold conditions, adapting to volatility, aiding in identifying long-term potential reversal zones.
Torque Filtering & Scaling – Smooths and thresholds torque (the rate of change of momentum) and visually scales it for clarity, indicating sudden force changes that may precede volatility adjustments.
Divergence Detection – Highlights potential reversal cues by comparing oscillator swings against price swings, revealing regular and hidden bullish/bearish divergences.
Conceptual Insights
IQR Bands (Short-Term Squeeze & Trend Direction):
Short-Term Momentum and Squeeze: The IQR (Interquartile Range) bands show where the oscillator tends to “live” statistically. When the GMO line hovers within compressed IQR bands, it can signal a momentum squeeze phase. Exiting these tight ranges often correlates with short-term breakout opportunities.
Trend Reversals: If the oscillator pushes beyond these IQR ranges, it may indicate an emerging short-term trend change. Traders can watch for GMO escaping the IQR “comfort zone” to anticipate a new directional move.
Dynamic OB/OS Levels (Long-Term Reversal Zones):
ATR-Based Adaptive Thresholds: Instead of static overbought/oversold lines, this tool uses ATR to adjust OB/OS boundaries. In calm markets, these lines remain closer to ±90. As volatility rises, they approach ±100, reflecting greater permissible swings.
Long-Term Trend Reversal Potential: If GMO hits these dynamically adjusted OB/OS extremes, it suggests conditions ripe for possible long-term trend reversals. Traders seeking major inflection points may find these adaptive levels more reliable than fixed thresholds.
Torque (Sudden Force & Directional Shifts):
Momentum Acceleration Insight: Torque represents the second derivative of momentum, highlighting how quickly momentum is changing. High positive torque suggests a rapidly strengthening bullish force, while high negative torque warns of sudden bearish pressure.
Early Warning & Stability/Volatility Adjustments: By monitoring torque spikes, traders can anticipate momentum shifts before price fully confirms them. This can signal imminent changes in stability or increased volatility phases.
Indicator Parameters and Usage
GMO-Related Inputs:
lenPivot (Default 100): Length for calculating the pivot line (slow market axis).
lenSmoothAngle (Default 200): Smooths the angle measure, reducing noise.
lenATR (Default 14): ATR period for scaling factor, linking price changes to volatility.
useVolatility (Default true): If true, volatility (ATR) influences inertia, adjusting momentum calculations.
useVolume (Default false): If true, volume affects inertia, adding a liquidity dimension to momentum.
lenVolSmoothing (Default 50): Smooths volume calculations if useVolume is enabled.
lenMomentumSmooth (Default 20): EMA smoothing of GMO for a cleaner oscillator line.
normalizeRange (Default true): Normalizes GMO to a fixed range for consistent interpretation.
lenNorm (Default 100): Length for normalization window, ensuring GMO’s scale adapts to recent extremes.
IQR Bands Settings:
iqrLength (Default 14): Period to compute the oscillator’s statistical IQR.
iqrMult (Default 1.5): Multiplier to define the upper and lower IQR-based bands.
ATR-Adjusted OB/OS Settings:
baseOBLevel (Fixed at 90) and baseOSLevel (Fixed at 90): Base lines for OB/OS.
atrPeriodForOBOS (Default 50): ATR length for adjusting OB/OS thresholds dynamically.
atrScaling (Default 0.2): Controls how strongly volatility affects OB/OS lines.
Torque Filtering & Visualization:
torqueSmoothLength (Default 10): EMA length to smooth raw torque values.
atrPeriodForTorque (Default 14): ATR period to determine torque threshold.
atrTorqueScaling (Default 0.5): Scales ATR for determining torque’s “significant” threshold.
torqueScaleFactor (Default 10.0): Multiplies the torque values for better visual prominence on the chart.
Divergence Inputs:
showDivergences (Default true): Toggles divergence signals.
lbR, lbL (Defaults 5): Pivot lookback periods to identify swing highs and lows.
rangeUpper, rangeLower: Bar constraints to validate potential divergences.
plotBull, plotHiddenBull, plotBear, plotHiddenBear: Toggles for each divergence type.
Visual Elements on the Chart
GMO Line (Blue) & Zero Line (Gray):
GMO line oscillates around zero. Positive territory hints bullish momentum, negative suggests bearish.
IQR Bands (Teal Lines & Yellow Fill):
Upper/lower bands form a statistical “normal range” for GMO. The median line (purple) provides a central reference. Contraction near these bands indicates a short-term squeeze, expansions beyond them can signal emerging short-term trend changes.
Dynamic OB/OS (Red & Green Lines):
Red line near +90 to +100: Overbought zone (dynamic).
Green line near -90 to -100: Oversold zone (dynamic).
Movement into these zones may mark significant, longer-term reversal potential.
Torque Histogram (Colored Bars):
Plotted below GMO. Green bars = torque above positive threshold (bullish acceleration).
Red bars = torque below negative threshold (bearish acceleration).
Gray bars = neutral range.
This provides early warnings of momentum shifts before price responds fully.
Precession (Orange Line):
Scaled for visibility, adds context to long-term angular shifts in the oscillator.
Divergence Signals (Shapes):
Circles and offset lines highlight regular or hidden bullish/bearish divergences, offering potential reversal signals.
Practical Interpretation & Strategy
Short-Term Opportunities (IQR Focus):
If GMO compresses within IQR bands, the market might be “winding up.” A break above/below these bands can signal a short-term trade opportunity.
Long-Term Reversal Zones (Dynamic OB/OS):
When GMO approaches these dynamically adjusted extremes, conditions may be ripe for a major trend shift. This is particularly useful for swing or position traders looking for significant turnarounds.
Monitoring Torque for Acceleration Cues:
Torque spikes can precede price action, serving as an early catalyst signal. If torque turns strongly positive, anticipate bullish acceleration; strongly negative torque may warn of upcoming bearish pressure.
Confirm with Divergences:
Divergences between price and GMO reinforce potential reversal or continuation signals identified by IQR, OB/OS, or torque. Use them to increase confidence in setups.
Tips and Best Practices
Combine with Price & Volume Action:
While the indicator is powerful, always confirm signals with actual price structure, volume patterns, or other trend-following tools.
Adjust Lengths & Periods as Needed:
Shorter lengths = more responsiveness but more noise. Longer lengths = smoother signals but greater lag. Tune parameters to match your trading style and timeframe.
Use ATR and Volume Settings Wisely:
If markets are highly volatile, consider useVolatility to refine momentum readings. If liquidity is key, enable useVolume.
Scaling Torque:
If torque bars are hard to read, increase torqueScaleFactor further. The scaling doesn’t affect logic—only visibility.
Conclusion
The “GMO + IQR Bands + ATR-Adjusted OB/OS + Torque Filtering (Scaled)” indicator presents a holistic framework for understanding market momentum across multiple timescales and conditions. By interpreting short-term squeezes via IQR bands, long-term reversal zones via adaptive OB/OS, and subtle acceleration changes through torque, traders can gain advanced insights into when to anticipate breakouts, manage risk around potential reversals, and fine-tune timing for entries and exits.
This integrated approach helps navigate complex market dynamics, making it a valuable addition to any technical analysis toolkit.
base16Library "base16"
Base16 Syntax Theme Collection. dark/light Pairs placed into 2 matched groups.
included is tool for assembling your own themes, as well as all themes String names
to create your own Input menus / add to your own theme matrix, and theme selectors
addToMatrix(_mtx, _title, _choices, _theme)
To create a theme matrix with string index, use a color matrix global
add theme name to string array of theme titles
and last input a theme from above, or create your own theme arrays.
Parameters:
_mtx : (color ) matrix for storage
_title : (string ) Name of theme being added
_choices : (string ) name index
_theme : (color ) colors being added
Returns: void
addToMatrix(_mtx, _theme)
Add theme to color matrix Non-indexed
Parameters:
_mtx : (color ) matrix for storage
_theme : (color ) colors being added
dark()
Dark Themne Selection (With light Equivalent in same location)
Returns: Color matrix of dark themes
light()
light Themne Selection (With dark Equivalent in same location)
Returns: Color matrix of light themes
selectTheme(_mtx, _themes, _theme)
Get a Theme By Name
Parameters:
_mtx : (Matrix color) Name of Theme
_themes : (Array string) Array with Names of Themes
_theme : (string ) Name of Theme to select
selectTheme(_mtx, _theme)
Get a Theme By Number
Parameters:
_mtx : (Matrix color) Name of Theme
_theme : (int ) Number of Theme to select
/// all themes included:
3024
apathy
apprentice
ashes
atelier_cave_light
atelier_cave
atelier_dune_light
atelier_dune
atelier_estuary_light
atelier_estuary
atelier_forest_light
atelier_forest
atelier_heath_light
atelier_heath
atelier_lakeside_light
atelier_lakeside
atelier_plateau_light
atelier_plateau
atelier_savanna_light
atelier_savanna
atelier_seaside_light
atelier_seaside
atelier_sulphurpool_light
atelier_sulphurpool
atlas
ayu_dark
ayu_light
ayu_mirage
bespin
black_metal_bathory
black_metal_burzum
black_metal_dark_funeral
black_metal_gorgoroth
black_metal_immortal
black_metal_khold
black_metal_marduk
black_metal_mayhem
black_metal_nile
black_metal_venom
black_metal
blue_forest
blueish
brewer
bright
brogrammer
brush_trees_dark
brush_trees
catppuccin
chalk
circus
classic_dark
classic_light
codeschool
clrs
cupcake
cupertino
da_one_black
da_one_gray
da_one_ocean
da_one_paper
da_one_sea
da_one_white
danqing_light
danqing
darcula
darkmoss
darktooth
dark_violet
decaf
default_dark
default_light
dirtysea
dracula
edge_dark
edge_light
eighties
embers
emil
equilibrium_dark
equilibrium_gray_dark
equilibrium_gray_light
equilibrium_light
espresso
eva_dim
eva
everforest
flat
framer
fruit_soda
gigavolt
github
google_dark
google_light
gotham
grayscale_dark
grayscale_light
green_screen
gruber
gruvbox_dark_hard
gruvbox_dark_medium
gruvbox_dark_pale
gruvbox_dark_soft
gruvbox_light_hard
gruvbox_light_medium
gruvbox_light_soft
gruvbox_material_dark_hard
gruvbox_material_dark_medium
gruvbox_material_dark_soft
gruvbox_material_light_hard
gruvbox_material_light_medium
gruvbox_material_light_soft
hardcore
harmonic16_dark
harmonic16_light
heetch_light
heetch_dark
helios
hopscotch
horizon_dark
horizon_light
horizon_terminal_dark
horizon_terminal_light
humanoid_dark
humanoid_light
ia_dark
ia_light
icy_dark
ir_black
isotope
kanagawa
katy
kimber
lime
macintosh
marrakesh
materia
material_darker
material_lighter
material_palenight
material_vivid
material
mellow_purple
mexico_light
mocha
monokai
Nebula
nord
nova
ocean
oceanicnext
one_light
onedark
outrun_dark
pandora
papercolor_dark
papercolor_light
paraiso
pasque
phd
pico
pinky
pop
porple
primer_dark_dimmed
primer_dark
primer_light
purpledream
qualia
railscasts
rebecca
rose_pine_dawn
rose_pine_moon
rose_pine
sagelight
sakura
sandcastle
seti_ui
shades_of_purple
shadesmear_dark
shadesmear_light
shapeshifter
silk_dark
silk_light
snazzy
solar_flare_light
solar_flare
solarized_dark
solarized_light
spaceduck
spacemacs
stella
still_alive
summercamp
summerfruit_dark
summerfruit_light
synth_midnight_terminal_dark
synth_midnight_terminal_light
tango
tender
tokyo_city_dark
tokyo_city_light
tokyo_city_terminal_dark
tokyo_city_terminal_light
tokyo_night_dark
tokyo_night_light
tokyo_night_storm
tokyo_night_terminal_dark
tokyo_night_terminal_light
tokyo_night_terminal_storm
tokyodark_terminal
tokyodark
tomorrow_night_eighties
tomorrow_night
tomorrow
london_tube
twilight
unikitty_dark
unikitty_light
unikitty_reversible
uwunicorn
vice
vulcan
windows_10_light
windows_10
windows_95_light
windows_95
windows_high_contrast_light
windows_high_contrast
windows_nt_light
windows_nt
woodland
xcode_dusk
zenburn
Post 9/21 EMA Cross — Paint X Bars v2.0
# **Post 9/21 EMA Cross — Time Blocks & Session Colors**
This indicator highlights candles after a **9/21 EMA crossover**, but with extra controls that let you focus only on the sessions and time windows that matter to you.
---
## 🔑 What It Does
1. **EMA Cross Trigger**
* Bullish trigger: 9 EMA crosses above 21 EMA.
* Bearish trigger: 9 EMA crosses below 21 EMA.
2. **Bar Painting**
* After a valid cross, the indicator paints a set number of bars (you choose how many).
* You can require the **2nd bar to confirm momentum** (“displacement” filter) so weak signals are ignored.
3. **Time Block Control**
* Define up to **four custom time blocks** (like `08:00–09:30` or `12:00–13:00`).
* Painting only occurs inside those blocks if you enable the filter.
4. **Session-Aware Colors**
* Use one set of bullish/bearish colors for **regular hours**, another set for **pre-market**, and another for **post-market**.
* That way you can instantly see *when* the signal occurred.
---
## 🎨 Visuals
* Candles recolored in your chosen bull/bear colors.
* Optional EMA lines plotted on the chart for reference.
* Different colors for RTH, pre-market, and post-market activity.
---
## ⚙️ Inputs
* **EMA lengths (fast & slow)**
* **Number of bars to paint after a cross**
* **Displacement filter (loose or strict)**
* **Show/hide EMA lines**
* **Up to four custom time blocks** (on/off toggles + start/end times)
* **Bull/bear colors for RTH, Pre, Post**
---
## 📈 Why Use It
* **Clarity** – Only shows cross signals in the hours you actually trade.
* **Focus** – Different colors remind you at a glance whether the move was in pre-market, RTH, or post-market.
* **Discipline** – The optional 2nd-bar displacement filter prevents false starts by requiring real momentum.
---
## 🚨 Practical Use
* Treat the painted window as a **momentum phase**: enter on confirmation, manage risk while bars are painted, and stand aside once painting ends.
* Restrict painting to time blocks that match your personal trading routine (e.g., open drive 09:30–10:00, or late-day momentum 15:00–16:00).
* Use session colors to keep pre/post-market action separate from regular session strategies.
ICT 00:00, 08:30, 09:30 & 13:30 Opens (NY) — Prior-Day HistoryICT 00:00, 08:30, 09:30 & 13:30 Opens (NY)
This is a derivative of ALPHAICTRADER’s open-source script, republished under the MPL-2.0 with clear attribution and documented changes. It plots four New-York–anchored intraday reference levels—0000, 0830, 0930, 1330—as short, right-padded stubs with clean side labels. Use these time anchors (ICT-style midnight + key US windows) to frame bias, volatility pockets, and intraday trade locations.
What’s original in this version (changes)
Right-padded stubs instead of chart-wide rays — each level ends N bars past the latest candle (configurable).
Side labels at the line tip — text-only labels (0000, 0830, 0930, 1330) that sit at the right end of each stub and update every bar.
Optional prior-day history — show Today only or Today + Prior Day; older lines/labels auto-pruned.
Per-anchor controls — Display, Style, Color, Width, and Show Label for each time.
What it plots (and why)
0000 (NY Midnight): daily session anchor for bias/liquidity context.
0830 (NY): macro data window (CPI/NFP/claims) where volatility often concentrates.
0930 (NY): US cash equity market open; opening-drive structure/acceptance tests.
1330 (NY): early-afternoon anchor for continuation vs. fade.
How it works (under the hood)
Session detection: time("1", session, "America/New_York"); first bar flagged via not na(ts) and na(ts ).
Anchor price: open of that first bar per session/day.
Rendering: lines drawn with xloc=bar_index from start bar to bar_index + Right Pad; x2 updates every bar (no extend.right).
Labels: placed at line.get_x2(line) + Label Pad, soft color variant; updated per bar to stay on the tip.
History: arrays keep either today only or today + yesterday and delete anything older immediately.
How to use
Add to any intraday chart (futures/FX/indices). Anchors are always NY-time; TradingView handles DST.
Inputs
00:00 / 08:30 / 09:30 / 13:30 (NY): Display, Line Style, Color, Width, Show Label
Right Edge: Right Pad (bars) · Label Pad (bars)
History: Show Prior Day (History) — off = today only; on = today + yesterday
Suggested pads: Right Pad 2–5 bars; Label Pad 0–2.
These are context anchors, not signals. Combine with your execution model (market structure, liquidity, FVG/OBs, etc.).
Attribution & License (MPL-2.0)
Original work: “ICT NEW YORK MIDNIGHT OPEN AND 8.30 AM OPEN” by ALPHAICTRADER (MPL-2.0).
This derivative: modifications listed above; source published and kept under MPL-2.0 per license terms.
If you distribute a modified version of this Pine file, you must keep MPL-2.0, retain the copyright/licensing header, publish your modified source, and document your changes.
Notes: Pine v5. Minimalist (no day dividers). Educational tool; not financial advice.
Copyright: © ALPHAICTRADER 2022 · © Funk 2025
License: MPL-2.0
Multi-AVWAP - Anchored - Gold -V1This script uses multi-day anchored VWAP.
What it does
This study plots multiple Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) lines from recent session starts (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 90).
from the anchor forward. Each line shows a live label with the line’s current value and the current price for quick distance checks.
Best practices
Use on intraday timeframes for session-anchored lines.
Ensure the chart has enough history loaded for the longest lookback (e.g., 90 days).
For crypto or 24×7 markets, set session to a 24h window (e.g., 0000-2359) and turn off the exclude-ETH toggle if you want full-time anchoring.
Limitations
Different exchanges/markets use different RTH windows—pick the one that matches your venue.
Corporate actions/volume adjustments can make small discrepancies across platforms.
If no RTH exists on the exact calendar day (holidays), the 90d line anchors to the most recent available RTH open before that date.
Tzotchev Trend Measure [EdgeTools]Are you still measuring trend strength with moving averages? Here is a better variant at scientific level:
Tzotchev Trend Measure: A Statistical Approach to Trend Following
The Tzotchev Trend Measure represents a sophisticated advancement in quantitative trend analysis, moving beyond traditional moving average-based indicators toward a statistically rigorous framework for measuring trend strength. This indicator implements the methodology developed by Tzotchev et al. (2015) in their seminal J.P. Morgan research paper "Designing robust trend-following system: Behind the scenes of trend-following," which introduced a probabilistic approach to trend measurement that has since become a cornerstone of institutional trading strategies.
Mathematical Foundation and Statistical Theory
The core innovation of the Tzotchev Trend Measure lies in its transformation of price momentum into a probability-based metric through the application of statistical hypothesis testing principles. The indicator employs the fundamental formula ST = 2 × Φ(√T × r̄T / σ̂T) - 1, where ST represents the trend strength score bounded between -1 and +1, Φ(x) denotes the normal cumulative distribution function, T represents the lookback period in trading days, r̄T is the average logarithmic return over the specified period, and σ̂T represents the estimated daily return volatility.
This formulation transforms what is essentially a t-statistic into a probabilistic trend measure, testing the null hypothesis that the mean return equals zero against the alternative hypothesis of non-zero mean return. The use of logarithmic returns rather than simple returns provides several statistical advantages, including symmetry properties where log(P₁/P₀) = -log(P₀/P₁), additivity characteristics that allow for proper compounding analysis, and improved validity of normal distribution assumptions that underpin the statistical framework.
The implementation utilizes the Abramowitz and Stegun (1964) approximation for the normal cumulative distribution function, achieving accuracy within ±1.5 × 10⁻⁷ for all input values. This approximation employs Horner's method for polynomial evaluation to ensure numerical stability, particularly important when processing large datasets or extreme market conditions.
Comparative Analysis with Traditional Trend Measurement Methods
The Tzotchev Trend Measure demonstrates significant theoretical and empirical advantages over conventional trend analysis techniques. Traditional moving average-based systems, including simple moving averages (SMA), exponential moving averages (EMA), and their derivatives such as MACD, suffer from several fundamental limitations that the Tzotchev methodology addresses systematically.
Moving average systems exhibit inherent lag bias, as documented by Kaufman (2013) in "Trading Systems and Methods," where he demonstrates that moving averages inevitably lag price movements by approximately half their period length. This lag creates delayed signal generation that reduces profitability in trending markets and increases false signal frequency during consolidation periods. In contrast, the Tzotchev measure eliminates lag bias by directly analyzing the statistical properties of return distributions rather than smoothing price levels.
The volatility normalization inherent in the Tzotchev formula addresses a critical weakness in traditional momentum indicators. As shown by Bollinger (2001) in "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands," momentum oscillators like RSI and Stochastic fail to account for changing volatility regimes, leading to inconsistent signal interpretation across different market conditions. The Tzotchev measure's incorporation of return volatility in the denominator ensures that trend strength assessments remain consistent regardless of the underlying volatility environment.
Empirical studies by Hurst, Ooi, and Pedersen (2013) in "Demystifying Managed Futures" demonstrate that traditional trend-following indicators suffer from significant drawdowns during whipsaw markets, with Sharpe ratios frequently below 0.5 during challenging periods. The authors attribute these poor performance characteristics to the binary nature of most trend signals and their inability to quantify signal confidence. The Tzotchev measure addresses this limitation by providing continuous probability-based outputs that allow for more sophisticated risk management and position sizing strategies.
The statistical foundation of the Tzotchev approach provides superior robustness compared to technical indicators that lack theoretical grounding. Fama and French (1988) in "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices" established that price movements contain both permanent and temporary components, with traditional moving averages unable to distinguish between these elements effectively. The Tzotchev methodology's hypothesis testing framework specifically tests for the presence of permanent trend components while filtering out temporary noise, providing a more theoretically sound approach to trend identification.
Research by Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen (2012) in "Time Series Momentum in the Cross Section of Asset Returns" found that traditional momentum indicators exhibit significant variation in effectiveness across asset classes and time periods. Their study of multiple asset classes over decades revealed that simple price-based momentum measures often fail to capture persistent trends in fixed income and commodity markets. The Tzotchev measure's normalization by volatility and its probabilistic interpretation provide consistent performance across diverse asset classes, as demonstrated in the original J.P. Morgan research.
Comparative performance studies conducted by AQR Capital Management (Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen, 2013) in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" show that volatility-adjusted momentum measures significantly outperform traditional price momentum across international equity, bond, commodity, and currency markets. The study documents Sharpe ratio improvements of 0.2 to 0.4 when incorporating volatility normalization, consistent with the theoretical advantages of the Tzotchev approach.
The regime detection capabilities of the Tzotchev measure provide additional advantages over binary trend classification systems. Research by Ang and Bekaert (2002) in "Regime Switches in Interest Rates" demonstrates that financial markets exhibit distinct regime characteristics that traditional indicators fail to capture adequately. The Tzotchev measure's five-tier classification system (Strong Bull, Weak Bull, Neutral, Weak Bear, Strong Bear) provides more nuanced market state identification than simple trend/no-trend binary systems.
Statistical testing by Jegadeesh and Titman (2001) in "Profitability of Momentum Strategies" revealed that traditional momentum indicators suffer from significant parameter instability, with optimal lookback periods varying substantially across market conditions and asset classes. The Tzotchev measure's statistical framework provides more stable parameter selection through its grounding in hypothesis testing theory, reducing the need for frequent parameter optimization that can lead to overfitting.
Advanced Noise Filtering and Market Regime Detection
A significant enhancement over the original Tzotchev methodology is the incorporation of a multi-factor noise filtering system designed to reduce false signals during sideways market conditions. The filtering mechanism employs four distinct approaches: adaptive thresholding based on current market regime strength, volatility-based filtering utilizing ATR percentile analysis, trend strength confirmation through momentum alignment, and a comprehensive multi-factor approach that combines all methodologies.
The adaptive filtering system analyzes market microstructure through price change relative to average true range, calculates volatility percentiles over rolling windows, and assesses trend alignment across multiple timeframes using exponential moving averages of varying periods. This approach addresses one of the primary limitations identified in traditional trend-following systems, namely their tendency to generate excessive false signals during periods of low volatility or sideways price action.
The regime detection component classifies market conditions into five distinct categories: Strong Bull (ST > 0.3), Weak Bull (0.1 < ST ≤ 0.3), Neutral (-0.1 ≤ ST ≤ 0.1), Weak Bear (-0.3 ≤ ST < -0.1), and Strong Bear (ST < -0.3). This classification system provides traders with clear, quantitative definitions of market regimes that can inform position sizing, risk management, and strategy selection decisions.
Professional Implementation and Trading Applications
The indicator incorporates three distinct trading profiles designed to accommodate different investment approaches and risk tolerances. The Conservative profile employs longer lookback periods (63 days), higher signal thresholds (0.2), and reduced filter sensitivity (0.5) to minimize false signals and focus on major trend changes. The Balanced profile utilizes standard academic parameters with moderate settings across all dimensions. The Aggressive profile implements shorter lookback periods (14 days), lower signal thresholds (-0.1), and increased filter sensitivity (1.5) to capture shorter-term trend movements.
Signal generation occurs through threshold crossover analysis, where long signals are generated when the trend measure crosses above the specified threshold and short signals when it crosses below. The implementation includes sophisticated signal confirmation mechanisms that consider trend alignment across multiple timeframes and momentum strength percentiles to reduce the likelihood of false breakouts.
The alert system provides real-time notifications for trend threshold crossovers, strong regime changes, and signal generation events, with configurable frequency controls to prevent notification spam. Alert messages are standardized to ensure consistency across different market conditions and timeframes.
Performance Optimization and Computational Efficiency
The implementation incorporates several performance optimization features designed to handle large datasets efficiently. The maximum bars back parameter allows users to control historical calculation depth, with default settings optimized for most trading applications while providing flexibility for extended historical analysis. The system includes automatic performance monitoring that generates warnings when computational limits are approached.
Error handling mechanisms protect against division by zero conditions, infinite values, and other numerical instabilities that can occur during extreme market conditions. The finite value checking system ensures data integrity throughout the calculation process, with fallback mechanisms that maintain indicator functionality even when encountering corrupted or missing price data.
Timeframe validation provides warnings when the indicator is applied to unsuitable timeframes, as the Tzotchev methodology was specifically designed for daily and higher timeframe analysis. This validation helps prevent misapplication of the indicator in contexts where its statistical assumptions may not hold.
Visual Design and User Interface
The indicator features eight professional color schemes designed for different trading environments and user preferences. The EdgeTools theme provides an institutional blue and steel color palette suitable for professional trading environments. The Gold theme offers warm colors optimized for commodities trading. The Behavioral theme incorporates psychology-based color contrasts that align with behavioral finance principles. The Quant theme provides neutral colors suitable for analytical applications.
Additional specialized themes include Ocean, Fire, Matrix, and Arctic variations, each optimized for specific visual preferences and trading contexts. All color schemes include automatic dark and light mode optimization to ensure optimal readability across different chart backgrounds and trading platforms.
The information table provides real-time display of key metrics including current trend measure value, market regime classification, signal strength, Z-score, average returns, volatility measures, filter threshold levels, and filter effectiveness percentages. This comprehensive dashboard allows traders to monitor all relevant indicator components simultaneously.
Theoretical Implications and Research Context
The Tzotchev Trend Measure addresses several theoretical limitations inherent in traditional technical analysis approaches. Unlike moving average-based systems that rely on price level comparisons, this methodology grounds trend analysis in statistical hypothesis testing, providing a more robust theoretical foundation for trading decisions.
The probabilistic interpretation of trend strength offers significant advantages over binary trend classification systems. Rather than simply indicating whether a trend exists, the measure quantifies the statistical confidence level associated with the trend assessment, allowing for more nuanced risk management and position sizing decisions.
The incorporation of volatility normalization addresses the well-documented problem of volatility clustering in financial time series, ensuring that trend strength assessments remain consistent across different market volatility regimes. This normalization is particularly important for portfolio management applications where consistent risk metrics across different assets and time periods are essential.
Practical Applications and Trading Strategy Integration
The Tzotchev Trend Measure can be effectively integrated into various trading strategies and portfolio management frameworks. For trend-following strategies, the indicator provides clear entry and exit signals with quantified confidence levels. For mean reversion strategies, extreme readings can signal potential turning points. For portfolio allocation, the regime classification system can inform dynamic asset allocation decisions.
The indicator's statistical foundation makes it particularly suitable for quantitative trading strategies where systematic, rules-based approaches are preferred over discretionary decision-making. The standardized output range facilitates easy integration with position sizing algorithms and risk management systems.
Risk management applications benefit from the indicator's ability to quantify trend strength and provide early warning signals of potential trend changes. The multi-timeframe analysis capability allows for the construction of robust risk management frameworks that consider both short-term tactical and long-term strategic market conditions.
Implementation Guide and Parameter Configuration
The practical application of the Tzotchev Trend Measure requires careful parameter configuration to optimize performance for specific trading objectives and market conditions. This section provides comprehensive guidance for parameter selection and indicator customization.
Core Calculation Parameters
The Lookback Period parameter controls the statistical window used for trend calculation and represents the most critical setting for the indicator. Default values range from 14 to 63 trading days, with shorter periods (14-21 days) providing more sensitive trend detection suitable for short-term trading strategies, while longer periods (42-63 days) offer more stable trend identification appropriate for position trading and long-term investment strategies. The parameter directly influences the statistical significance of trend measurements, with longer periods requiring stronger underlying trends to generate significant signals but providing greater reliability in trend identification.
The Price Source parameter determines which price series is used for return calculations. The default close price provides standard trend analysis, while alternative selections such as high-low midpoint ((high + low) / 2) can reduce noise in volatile markets, and volume-weighted average price (VWAP) offers superior trend identification in institutional trading environments where volume concentration matters significantly.
The Signal Threshold parameter establishes the minimum trend strength required for signal generation, with values ranging from -0.5 to 0.5. Conservative threshold settings (0.2 to 0.3) reduce false signals but may miss early trend opportunities, while aggressive settings (-0.1 to 0.1) provide earlier signal generation at the cost of increased false positive rates. The optimal threshold depends on the trader's risk tolerance and the volatility characteristics of the traded instrument.
Trading Profile Configuration
The Trading Profile system provides pre-configured parameter sets optimized for different trading approaches. The Conservative profile employs a 63-day lookback period with a 0.2 signal threshold and 0.5 noise sensitivity, designed for long-term position traders seeking high-probability trend signals with minimal false positives. The Balanced profile uses a 21-day lookback with 0.05 signal threshold and 1.0 noise sensitivity, suitable for swing traders requiring moderate signal frequency with acceptable noise levels. The Aggressive profile implements a 14-day lookback with -0.1 signal threshold and 1.5 noise sensitivity, optimized for day traders and scalpers requiring frequent signal generation despite higher noise levels.
Advanced Noise Filtering System
The noise filtering mechanism addresses the challenge of false signals during sideways market conditions through four distinct methodologies. The Adaptive filter adjusts thresholds based on current trend strength, increasing sensitivity during strong trending periods while raising thresholds during consolidation phases. The Volatility-based filter utilizes Average True Range (ATR) percentile analysis to suppress signals during abnormally volatile conditions that typically generate false trend indications.
The Trend Strength filter requires alignment between multiple momentum indicators before confirming signals, reducing the probability of false breakouts from consolidation patterns. The Multi-factor approach combines all filtering methodologies using weighted scoring to provide the most robust noise reduction while maintaining signal responsiveness during genuine trend initiations.
The Noise Sensitivity parameter controls the aggressiveness of the filtering system, with lower values (0.5-1.0) providing conservative filtering suitable for volatile instruments, while higher values (1.5-2.0) allow more signals through but may increase false positive rates during choppy market conditions.
Visual Customization and Display Options
The Color Scheme parameter offers eight professional visualization options designed for different analytical preferences and market conditions. The EdgeTools scheme provides high contrast visualization optimized for trend strength differentiation, while the Gold scheme offers warm tones suitable for commodity analysis. The Behavioral scheme uses psychological color associations to enhance decision-making speed, and the Quant scheme provides neutral colors appropriate for quantitative analysis environments.
The Ocean, Fire, Matrix, and Arctic schemes offer additional aesthetic options while maintaining analytical functionality. Each scheme includes optimized colors for both light and dark chart backgrounds, ensuring visibility across different trading platform configurations.
The Show Glow Effects parameter enhances plot visibility through multiple layered lines with progressive transparency, particularly useful when analyzing multiple timeframes simultaneously or when working with dense price data that might obscure trend signals.
Performance Optimization Settings
The Maximum Bars Back parameter controls the historical data depth available for calculations, with values ranging from 5,000 to 50,000 bars. Higher values enable analysis of longer-term trend patterns but may impact indicator loading speed on slower systems or when applied to multiple instruments simultaneously. The optimal setting depends on the intended analysis timeframe and available computational resources.
The Calculate on Every Tick parameter determines whether the indicator updates with every price change or only at bar close. Real-time calculation provides immediate signal updates suitable for scalping and day trading strategies, while bar-close calculation reduces computational overhead and eliminates signal flickering during bar formation, preferred for swing trading and position management applications.
Alert System Configuration
The Alert Frequency parameter controls notification generation, with options for all signals, bar close only, or once per bar. High-frequency trading strategies benefit from all signals mode, while position traders typically prefer bar close alerts to avoid premature position entries based on intrabar fluctuations.
The alert system generates four distinct notification types: Long Signal alerts when the trend measure crosses above the positive signal threshold, Short Signal alerts for negative threshold crossings, Bull Regime alerts when entering strong bullish conditions, and Bear Regime alerts for strong bearish regime identification.
Table Display and Information Management
The information table provides real-time statistical metrics including current trend value, regime classification, signal status, and filter effectiveness measurements. The table position can be customized for optimal screen real estate utilization, and individual metrics can be toggled based on analytical requirements.
The Language parameter supports both English and German display options for international users, while maintaining consistent calculation methodology regardless of display language selection.
Risk Management Integration
Effective risk management integration requires coordination between the trend measure signals and position sizing algorithms. Strong trend readings (above 0.5 or below -0.5) support larger position sizes due to higher probability of trend continuation, while neutral readings (between -0.2 and 0.2) suggest reduced position sizes or range-trading strategies.
The regime classification system provides additional risk management context, with Strong Bull and Strong Bear regimes supporting trend-following strategies, while Neutral regimes indicate potential for mean reversion approaches. The filter effectiveness metric helps traders assess current market conditions and adjust strategy parameters accordingly.
Timeframe Considerations and Multi-Timeframe Analysis
The indicator's effectiveness varies across different timeframes, with higher timeframes (daily, weekly) providing more reliable trend identification but slower signal generation, while lower timeframes (hourly, 15-minute) offer faster signals with increased noise levels. Multi-timeframe analysis combining trend alignment across multiple periods significantly improves signal quality and reduces false positive rates.
For optimal results, traders should consider trend alignment between the primary trading timeframe and at least one higher timeframe before entering positions. Divergences between timeframes often signal potential trend reversals or consolidation periods requiring strategy adjustment.
Conclusion
The Tzotchev Trend Measure represents a significant advancement in technical analysis methodology, combining rigorous statistical foundations with practical trading applications. Its implementation of the J.P. Morgan research methodology provides institutional-quality trend analysis capabilities previously available only to sophisticated quantitative trading firms.
The comprehensive parameter configuration options enable customization for diverse trading styles and market conditions, while the advanced noise filtering and regime detection capabilities provide superior signal quality compared to traditional trend-following indicators. Proper parameter selection and understanding of the indicator's statistical foundation are essential for achieving optimal trading results and effective risk management.
References
Abramowitz, M. and Stegun, I.A. (1964). Handbook of Mathematical Functions with Formulas, Graphs, and Mathematical Tables. Washington: National Bureau of Standards.
Ang, A. and Bekaert, G. (2002). Regime Switches in Interest Rates. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(2), 163-182.
Asness, C.S., Moskowitz, T.J., and Pedersen, L.H. (2013). Value and Momentum Everywhere. Journal of Finance, 68(3), 929-985.
Bollinger, J. (2001). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Fama, E.F. and French, K.R. (1988). Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices. Journal of Political Economy, 96(2), 246-273.
Hurst, B., Ooi, Y.H., and Pedersen, L.H. (2013). Demystifying Managed Futures. Journal of Investment Management, 11(3), 42-58.
Jegadeesh, N. and Titman, S. (2001). Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations. Journal of Finance, 56(2), 699-720.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013). Trading Systems and Methods. 5th Edition. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Moskowitz, T.J., Ooi, Y.H., and Pedersen, L.H. (2012). Time Series Momentum. Journal of Financial Economics, 104(2), 228-250.
Tzotchev, D., Lo, A.W., and Hasanhodzic, J. (2015). Designing robust trend-following system: Behind the scenes of trend-following. J.P. Morgan Quantitative Research, Asset Management Division.
Optimized ADX DI CCI Strategy### Key Features:
- Combines ADX, DI+/-, CCI, and RSI for signal generation.
- Supports customizable timeframes for indicators.
- Offers multiple exit conditions (Moving Average cross, ADX change, performance-based stop-loss).
- Tracks and displays trade statistics (e.g., win rate, capital growth, profit factor).
- Visualizes trades with labels and optional background coloring.
- Allows countertrading (opening an opposite trade after closing one).
1. **Indicator Calculation**:
- **ADX and DI+/-**: Calculated using the `ta.dmi` function with user-defined lengths for DI and ADX smoothing.
- **CCI**: Computed using the `ta.cci` function with a configurable source (default: `hlc3`) and length.
- **RSI (optional)**: Calculated using the `ta.rsi` function to filter overbought/oversold conditions.
- **Moving Averages**: Used for CCI signal smoothing and trade exits, with support for SMA, EMA, SMMA (RMA), WMA, and VWMA.
2. **Signal Generation**:
- **Buy Signal**: Triggered when DI+ > DI- (or DI+ crosses over DI-), CCI > MA (or CCI crosses over MA), and optional ADX/RSI filters are satisfied.
- **Sell Signal**: Triggered when DI+ < DI- (or DI- crosses over DI+), CCI < MA (or CCI crosses under MA), and optional ADX/RSI filters are satisfied.
3. **Trade Execution**:
- **Entry**: Long or short trades are opened using `strategy.entry` when signals are detected, provided trading is allowed (`allow_long`/`allow_short`) and equity is positive.
- **Exit**: Trades can be closed based on:
- Opposite signal (if no other exit conditions are used).
- MA cross (price crossing below/above the exit MA for long/short trades).
- ADX percentage change exceeding a threshold.
- Performance-based stop-loss (trade loss exceeding a percentage).
- **Countertrading**: If enabled, closing a trade triggers an opposite trade (e.g., closing a long opens a short).
4. **Visualization**:
- Labels are plotted at trade entries/exits (e.g., "BUY," "SELL," arrows).
- Optional background coloring highlights open trades (green for long, red for short).
- A statistics table displays real-time metrics (e.g., capital, win rates).
5. **Trade Tracking**:
- Tracks the number of long/short trades, wins, and overall performance.
- Monitors equity to prevent trading if it falls to zero.
### 2.3 Key Components
- **Indicator Calculations**: Uses `request.security` to fetch indicator data for the specified timeframe.
- **MA Function**: A custom `ma_func` handles different MA types for CCI and exit conditions.
- **Signal Logic**: Combines crossover/under checks with recent bar windows for flexibility.
- **Exit Conditions**: Multiple configurable exit strategies for risk management.
- **Statistics Table**: Updates dynamically with trade and capital metrics.
## 3. Configuration Options
The script provides extensive customization through input parameters, grouped for clarity in the TradingView settings panel. Below is a detailed breakdown of each setting and its impact.
### 3.1 Strategy Settings (Global)
- **Initial Capital**: Default `10000`. Sets the starting capital for backtesting.
- **Effect**: Determines the base equity for calculating position sizes and performance metrics.
- **Default Quantity Type**: `strategy.percent_of_equity` (50% of equity).
- **Effect**: Controls the size of each trade as a percentage of available equity.
- **Pyramiding**: Default `2`. Allows up to 2 simultaneous trades in the same direction.
- **Effect**: Enables multiple entries if conditions are met, increasing exposure.
- **Commission**: 0.2% per trade.
- **Effect**: Simulates trading fees, reducing net profit in backtesting.
- **Margin**: 100% for long and short trades.
- **Effect**: Assumes no leverage; adjust for margin trading simulations.
- **Calc on Every Tick**: `true`.
- **Effect**: Ensures real-time signal updates for precise execution.
### 3.2 Indicator Settings
- **Indicator Timeframe** (`indicator_timeframe`):
- **Options**: `""` (chart timeframe), `1`, `5`, `15`, `30`, `60`, `240`, `D`, `W`.
- **Default**: `""` (uses chart timeframe).
- **Effect**: Determines the timeframe for ADX, DI, CCI, and RSI calculations. A higher timeframe reduces noise but may delay signals.
### 3.3 ADX & DI Settings
- **DI Length** (`adx_di_len`):
- **Default**: `30`.
- **Range**: Minimum `1`.
- **Effect**: Sets the period for calculating DI+ and DI-. Longer periods smooth trends but reduce sensitivity.
- **ADX Smoothing Length** (`adx_smooth_len`):
- **Default**: `14`.
- **Range**: Minimum `1`.
- **Effect**: Smooths the ADX calculation. Longer periods produce smoother ADX values.
- **Use ADX Filter** (`use_adx_filter`):
- **Default**: `false`.
- **Effect**: If `true`, requires ADX to exceed the threshold for signals to be valid, filtering out weak trends.
- **ADX Threshold** (`adx_threshold`):
- **Default**: `25`.
- **Range**: Minimum `0`.
- **Effect**: Sets the minimum ADX value for valid signals when the filter is enabled. Higher values restrict trades to stronger trends.
### 3.4 CCI Settings
- **CCI Length** (`cci_length`):
- **Default**: `20`.
- **Range**: Minimum `1`.
- **Effect**: Sets the period for CCI calculation. Longer periods reduce noise but may lag.
- **CCI Source** (`cci_src`):
- **Default**: `hlc3` (average of high, low, close).
- **Effect**: Defines the price data for CCI. `hlc3` is standard, but users can choose other sources (e.g., `close`).
- **CCI MA Type** (`ma_type`):
- **Options**: `SMA`, `EMA`, `SMMA (RMA)`, `WMA`, `VWMA`.
- **Default**: `SMA`.
- **Effect**: Determines the moving average type for CCI signal smoothing. EMA is more responsive; VWMA weights by volume.
- **CCI MA Length** (`ma_length`):
- **Default**: `14`.
- **Range**: Minimum `1`.
- **Effect**: Sets the period for the CCI MA. Longer periods smooth the MA but may delay signals.
### 3.5 RSI Filter Settings
- **Use RSI Filter** (`use_rsi_filter`):
- **Default**: `false`.
- **Effect**: If `true`, applies RSI-based overbought/oversold filters to signals.
- **RSI Length** (`rsi_length`):
- **Default**: `14`.
- **Range**: Minimum `1`.
- **Effect**: Sets the period for RSI calculation. Longer periods reduce sensitivity.
- **RSI Lower Limit** (`rsi_lower_limit`):
- **Default**: `30`.
- **Range**: `0` to `100`.
- **Effect**: Defines the oversold threshold for buy signals. Lower values allow trades in more extreme conditions.
- **RSI Upper Limit** (`rsi_upper_limit`):
- **Default**: `70`.
- **Range**: `0` to `100`.
- **Effect**: Defines the overbought threshold for sell signals. Higher values allow trades in more extreme conditions.
### 3.6 Signal Settings
- **Cross Window** (`cross_window`):
- **Default**: `0`.
- **Range**: `0` to `5` bars.
- **Effect**: Specifies the lookback period for detecting DI+/- or CCI crosses. `0` requires crosses on the current bar; higher values allow recent crosses, increasing signal frequency.
- **Allow Long Trades** (`allow_long`):
- **Default**: `true`.
- **Effect**: Enables/disables new long trades. If `false`, only closing existing longs is allowed.
- **Allow Short Trades** (`allow_short`):
- **Default**: `true`.
- **Effect**: Enables/disables new short trades. If `false`, only closing existing shorts is allowed.
- **Require DI+/DI- Cross for Buy** (`buy_di_cross`):
- **Default**: `true`.
- **Effect**: If `true`, requires a DI+ crossover DI- for buy signals; if `false`, DI+ > DI- is sufficient.
- **Require CCI Cross for Buy** (`buy_cci_cross`):
- **Default**: `true`.
- **Effect**: If `true`, requires a CCI crossover MA for buy signals; if `false`, CCI > MA is sufficient.
- **Require DI+/DI- Cross for Sell** (`sell_di_cross`):
- **Default**: `true`.
- **Effect**: If `true`, requires a DI- crossover DI+ for sell signals; if `false`, DI+ < DI- is sufficient.
- **Require CCI Cross for Sell** (`sell_cci_cross`):
- **Default**: `true`.
- **Effect**: If `true`, requires a CCI crossunder MA for sell signals; if `false`, CCI < MA is sufficient.
- **Countertrade** (`countertrade`):
- **Default**: `true`.
- **Effect**: If `true`, closing a trade triggers an opposite trade (e.g., close long, open short) if allowed.
- **Color Background for Open Trades** (`color_background`):
- **Default**: `true`.
- **Effect**: If `true`, colors the chart background green for long trades and red for short trades.
### 3.7 Exit Settings
- **Use MA Cross for Exit** (`use_ma_exit`):
- **Default**: `true`.
- **Effect**: If `true`, closes trades when the price crosses the exit MA (below for long, above for short).
- **MA Length for Exit** (`ma_exit_length`):
- **Default**: `20`.
- **Range**: Minimum `1`.
- **Effect**: Sets the period for the exit MA. Longer periods delay exits.
- **MA Type for Exit** (`ma_exit_type`):
- **Options**: `SMA`, `EMA`, `SMMA (RMA)`, `WMA`, `VWMA`.
- **Default**: `SMA`.
- **Effect**: Determines the MA type for exit signals. EMA is more responsive; VWMA weights by volume.
- **Use ADX Change Stop-Loss** (`use_adx_stop`):
- **Default**: `false`.
- **Effect**: If `true`, closes trades when the ADX changes by a specified percentage.
- **ADX % Change for Stop-Loss** (`adx_change_percent`):
- **Default**: `5.0`.
- **Range**: Minimum `0.0`, step `0.1`.
- **Effect**: Specifies the percentage change in ADX (vs. previous bar) that triggers a stop-loss. Higher values reduce premature exits.
- **Use Performance Stop-Loss** (`use_perf_stop`):
- **Default**: `false`.
- **Effect**: If `true`, closes trades when the loss exceeds a percentage threshold.
- **Performance Stop-Loss (%)** (`perf_stop_percent`):
- **Default**: `-10.0`.
- **Range**: `-100.0` to `0.0`, step `0.1`.
- **Effect**: Specifies the loss percentage that triggers a stop-loss. More negative values allow larger losses before exiting.
## 4. Visual and Statistical Output
- **Labels**: Displayed at trade entries/exits with arrows (↑ for buy, ↓ for sell) and text ("BUY," "SELL"). A "No Equity" label appears if equity is zero.
- **Background Coloring**: Optionally colors the chart background (green for long, red for short) to indicate open trades.
- **Statistics Table**: Displayed at the top center of the chart, updated on timeframe changes or trade events. Includes:
- **Capital Metrics**: Initial capital, current capital, capital growth (%).
- **Trade Metrics**: Total trades, long/short trades, win rate, long/short win rates, profit factor.
- **Open Trade Status**: Indicates if a long, short, or no trade is open.
## 5. Alerts
- **Buy Signal Alert**: Triggered when `buy_signal` is true ("Cross Buy Signal").
- **Sell Signal Alert**: Triggered when `sell_signal` is true ("Cross Sell Signal").
- **Usage**: Users can set up TradingView alerts to receive notifications for trade signals.
Adaptive Investment Timing ModelA COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SYSTEMATIC EQUITY INVESTMENT TIMING
Investment timing represents one of the most challenging aspects of portfolio management, with extensive academic literature documenting the difficulty of consistently achieving superior risk-adjusted returns through market timing strategies (Malkiel, 2003).
Traditional approaches typically rely on either purely technical indicators or fundamental analysis in isolation, failing to capture the complex interactions between market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and company-specific factors that drive asset prices.
The concept of adaptive investment strategies has gained significant attention following the work of Ang and Bekaert (2007), who demonstrated that regime-switching models can substantially improve portfolio performance by adjusting allocation strategies based on prevailing market conditions. Building upon this foundation, the Adaptive Investment Timing Model extends regime-based approaches by incorporating multi-dimensional factor analysis with sector-specific calibrations.
Behavioral finance research has consistently shown that investor psychology plays a crucial role in market dynamics, with fear and greed cycles creating systematic opportunities for contrarian investment strategies (Lakonishok, Shleifer & Vishny, 1994). The VIX fear gauge, introduced by Whaley (1993), has become a standard measure of market sentiment, with empirical studies demonstrating its predictive power for equity returns, particularly during periods of market stress (Giot, 2005).
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
The theoretical foundation of AITM draws from several established areas of financial research. Modern Portfolio Theory, as developed by Markowitz (1952) and extended by Sharpe (1964), provides the mathematical framework for risk-return optimization, while the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama & French, 1993) establishes the empirical foundation for fundamental factor analysis.
Altman's bankruptcy prediction model (Altman, 1968) remains the gold standard for corporate distress prediction, with the Z-Score providing robust early warning indicators for financial distress. Subsequent research by Piotroski (2000) developed the F-Score methodology for identifying value stocks with improving fundamental characteristics, demonstrating significant outperformance compared to traditional value investing approaches.
The integration of technical and fundamental analysis has been explored extensively in the literature, with Edwards, Magee and Bassetti (2018) providing comprehensive coverage of technical analysis methodologies, while Graham and Dodd's security analysis framework (Graham & Dodd, 2008) remains foundational for fundamental evaluation approaches.
Regime-switching models, as developed by Hamilton (1989), provide the mathematical framework for dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions. Empirical studies by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) demonstrate that incorporating regime-switching mechanisms can significantly improve out-of-sample forecasting performance for asset returns.
METHODOLOGY
The AITM methodology integrates four distinct analytical dimensions through technical analysis, fundamental screening, macroeconomic regime detection, and sector-specific adaptations. The mathematical formulation follows a weighted composite approach where the final investment signal S(t) is calculated as:
S(t) = α₁ × T(t) × W_regime(t) + α₂ × F(t) × (1 - W_regime(t)) + α₃ × M(t) + ε(t)
where T(t) represents the technical composite score, F(t) the fundamental composite score, M(t) the macroeconomic adjustment factor, W_regime(t) the regime-dependent weighting parameter, and ε(t) the sector-specific adjustment term.
Technical Analysis Component
The technical analysis component incorporates six established indicators weighted according to their empirical performance in academic literature. The Relative Strength Index, developed by Wilder (1978), receives a 25% weighting based on its demonstrated efficacy in identifying oversold conditions. Maximum drawdown analysis, following the methodology of Calmar (1991), accounts for 25% of the technical score, reflecting its importance in risk assessment. Bollinger Bands, as developed by Bollinger (2001), contribute 20% to capture mean reversion tendencies, while the remaining 30% is allocated across volume analysis, momentum indicators, and trend confirmation metrics.
Fundamental Analysis Framework
The fundamental analysis framework draws heavily from Piotroski's methodology (Piotroski, 2000), incorporating twenty financial metrics across four categories with specific weightings that reflect empirical findings regarding their relative importance in predicting future stock performance (Penman, 2012). Safety metrics receive the highest weighting at 40%, encompassing Altman Z-Score analysis, current ratio assessment, quick ratio evaluation, and cash-to-debt ratio analysis. Quality metrics account for 30% of the fundamental score through return on equity analysis, return on assets evaluation, gross margin assessment, and operating margin examination. Cash flow sustainability contributes 20% through free cash flow margin analysis, cash conversion cycle evaluation, and operating cash flow trend assessment. Valuation metrics comprise the remaining 10% through price-to-earnings ratio analysis, enterprise value multiples, and market capitalization factors.
Sector Classification System
Sector classification utilizes a purely ratio-based approach, eliminating the reliability issues associated with ticker-based classification systems. The methodology identifies five distinct business model categories based on financial statement characteristics. Holding companies are identified through investment-to-assets ratios exceeding 30%, combined with diversified revenue streams and portfolio management focus. Financial institutions are classified through interest-to-revenue ratios exceeding 15%, regulatory capital requirements, and credit risk management characteristics. Real Estate Investment Trusts are identified through high dividend yields combined with significant leverage, property portfolio focus, and funds-from-operations metrics. Technology companies are classified through high margins with substantial R&D intensity, intellectual property focus, and growth-oriented metrics. Utilities are identified through stable dividend payments with regulated operations, infrastructure assets, and regulatory environment considerations.
Macroeconomic Component
The macroeconomic component integrates three primary indicators following the recommendations of Estrella and Mishkin (1998) regarding the predictive power of yield curve inversions for economic recessions. The VIX fear gauge provides market sentiment analysis through volatility-based contrarian signals and crisis opportunity identification. The yield curve spread, measured as the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread, enables recession probability assessment and economic cycle positioning. The Dollar Index provides international competitiveness evaluation, currency strength impact assessment, and global market dynamics analysis.
Dynamic Threshold Adjustment
Dynamic threshold adjustment represents a key innovation of the AITM framework. Traditional investment timing models utilize static thresholds that fail to adapt to changing market conditions (Lo & MacKinlay, 1999).
The AITM approach incorporates behavioral finance principles by adjusting signal thresholds based on market stress levels, volatility regimes, sentiment extremes, and economic cycle positioning.
During periods of elevated market stress, as indicated by VIX levels exceeding historical norms, the model lowers threshold requirements to capture contrarian opportunities consistent with the findings of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994).
USER GUIDE AND IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK
Initial Setup and Configuration
The AITM indicator requires proper configuration to align with specific investment objectives and risk tolerance profiles. Research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that individual risk preferences vary significantly, necessitating customizable parameter settings to accommodate different investor psychology profiles.
Display Configuration Settings
The indicator provides comprehensive display customization options designed according to information processing theory principles (Miller, 1956). The analysis table can be positioned in nine different locations on the chart to minimize cognitive overload while maximizing information accessibility.
Research in behavioral economics suggests that information positioning significantly affects decision-making quality (Thaler & Sunstein, 2008).
Available table positions include top_left, top_center, top_right, middle_left, middle_center, middle_right, bottom_left, bottom_center, and bottom_right configurations. Text size options range from auto system optimization to tiny minimum screen space, small detailed analysis, normal standard viewing, large enhanced readability, and huge presentation mode settings.
Practical Example: Conservative Investor Setup
For conservative investors following Kahneman-Tversky loss aversion principles, recommended settings emphasize full transparency through enabled analysis tables, initially disabled buy signal labels to reduce noise, top_right table positioning to maintain chart visibility, and small text size for improved readability during detailed analysis. Technical implementation should include enabled macro environment data to incorporate recession probability indicators, consistent with research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998) demonstrating the predictive power of macroeconomic factors for market downturns.
Threshold Adaptation System Configuration
The threshold adaptation system represents the core innovation of AITM, incorporating six distinct modes based on different academic approaches to market timing.
Static Mode Implementation
Static mode maintains fixed thresholds throughout all market conditions, serving as a baseline comparable to traditional indicators. Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates that static approaches often fail during regime changes, making this mode suitable primarily for backtesting comparisons.
Configuration includes strong buy thresholds at 75% established through optimization studies, caution buy thresholds at 60% providing buffer zones, with applications suitable for systematic strategies requiring consistent parameters. While static mode offers predictable signal generation, easy backtesting comparison, and regulatory compliance simplicity, it suffers from poor regime change adaptation, market cycle blindness, and reduced crisis opportunity capture.
Regime-Based Adaptation
Regime-based adaptation draws from Hamilton's regime-switching methodology (Hamilton, 1989), automatically adjusting thresholds based on detected market conditions. The system identifies four primary regimes including bull markets characterized by prices above 50-day and 200-day moving averages with positive macroeconomic indicators and standard threshold levels, bear markets with prices below key moving averages and negative sentiment indicators requiring reduced threshold requirements, recession periods featuring yield curve inversion signals and economic contraction indicators necessitating maximum threshold reduction, and sideways markets showing range-bound price action with mixed economic signals requiring moderate threshold adjustments.
Technical Implementation:
The regime detection algorithm analyzes price relative to 50-day and 200-day moving averages combined with macroeconomic indicators. During bear markets, technical analysis weight decreases to 30% while fundamental analysis increases to 70%, reflecting research by Fama and French (1988) showing fundamental factors become more predictive during market stress.
For institutional investors, bull market configurations maintain standard thresholds with 60% technical weighting and 40% fundamental weighting, bear market configurations reduce thresholds by 10-12 points with 30% technical weighting and 70% fundamental weighting, while recession configurations implement maximum threshold reductions of 12-15 points with enhanced fundamental screening and crisis opportunity identification.
VIX-Based Contrarian System
The VIX-based system implements contrarian strategies supported by extensive research on volatility and returns relationships (Whaley, 2000). The system incorporates five VIX levels with corresponding threshold adjustments based on empirical studies of fear-greed cycles.
Scientific Calibration:
VIX levels are calibrated according to historical percentile distributions:
Extreme High (>40):
- Maximum contrarian opportunity
- Threshold reduction: 15-20 points
- Historical accuracy: 85%+
High (30-40):
- Significant contrarian potential
- Threshold reduction: 10-15 points
- Market stress indicator
Medium (25-30):
- Moderate adjustment
- Threshold reduction: 5-10 points
- Normal volatility range
Low (15-25):
- Minimal adjustment
- Standard threshold levels
- Complacency monitoring
Extreme Low (<15):
- Counter-contrarian positioning
- Threshold increase: 5-10 points
- Bubble warning signals
Practical Example: VIX-Based Implementation for Active Traders
High Fear Environment (VIX >35):
- Thresholds decrease by 10-15 points
- Enhanced contrarian positioning
- Crisis opportunity capture
Low Fear Environment (VIX <15):
- Thresholds increase by 8-15 points
- Reduced signal frequency
- Bubble risk management
Additional Macro Factors:
- Yield curve considerations
- Dollar strength impact
- Global volatility spillover
Hybrid Mode Optimization
Hybrid mode combines regime and VIX analysis through weighted averaging, following research by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) on multi-factor regime models.
Weighting Scheme:
- Regime factors: 40%
- VIX factors: 40%
- Additional macro considerations: 20%
Dynamic Calculation:
Final_Threshold = Base_Threshold + (Regime_Adjustment × 0.4) + (VIX_Adjustment × 0.4) + (Macro_Adjustment × 0.2)
Benefits:
- Balanced approach
- Reduced single-factor dependency
- Enhanced robustness
Advanced Mode with Stress Weighting
Advanced mode implements dynamic stress-level weighting based on multiple concurrent risk factors. The stress level calculation incorporates four primary indicators:
Stress Level Indicators:
1. Yield curve inversion (recession predictor)
2. Volatility spikes (market disruption)
3. Severe drawdowns (momentum breaks)
4. VIX extreme readings (sentiment extremes)
Technical Implementation:
Stress levels range from 0-4, with dynamic weight allocation changing based on concurrent stress factors:
Low Stress (0-1 factors):
- Regime weighting: 50%
- VIX weighting: 30%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Medium Stress (2 factors):
- Regime weighting: 40%
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
High Stress (3-4 factors):
- Regime weighting: 20%
- VIX weighting: 50%
- Macro weighting: 30%
Higher stress levels increase VIX weighting to 50% while reducing regime weighting to 20%, reflecting research showing sentiment factors dominate during crisis periods (Baker & Wurgler, 2007).
Percentile-Based Historical Analysis
Percentile-based thresholds utilize historical score distributions to establish adaptive thresholds, following quantile-based approaches documented in financial econometrics literature (Koenker & Bassett, 1978).
Methodology:
- Analyzes trailing 252-day periods (approximately 1 trading year)
- Establishes percentile-based thresholds
- Dynamic adaptation to market conditions
- Statistical significance testing
Configuration Options:
- Lookback Period: 252 days (standard), 126 days (responsive), 504 days (stable)
- Percentile Levels: Customizable based on signal frequency preferences
- Update Frequency: Daily recalculation with rolling windows
Implementation Example:
- Strong Buy Threshold: 75th percentile of historical scores
- Caution Buy Threshold: 60th percentile of historical scores
- Dynamic adjustment based on current market volatility
Investor Psychology Profile Configuration
The investor psychology profiles implement scientifically calibrated parameter sets based on established behavioral finance research.
Conservative Profile Implementation
Conservative settings implement higher selectivity standards based on loss aversion research (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). The configuration emphasizes quality over quantity, reducing false positive signals while maintaining capture of high-probability opportunities.
Technical Calibration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High Threshold: 32.0 (lower sensitivity to fear spikes)
- High Threshold: 28.0
- Adjustment Magnitude: Reduced for stability
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market Reduction: -7 points (vs -12 for normal)
- Recession Reduction: -10 points (vs -15 for normal)
- Conservative approach to crisis opportunities
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 80th percentile (higher selectivity)
- Caution Buy: 65th percentile
- Signal frequency: Reduced for quality focus
Risk Management:
- Enhanced bankruptcy screening
- Stricter liquidity requirements
- Maximum leverage limits
Practical Application: Conservative Profile for Retirement Portfolios
This configuration suits investors requiring capital preservation with moderate growth:
- Reduced drawdown probability
- Research-based parameter selection
- Emphasis on fundamental safety
- Long-term wealth preservation focus
Normal Profile Optimization
Normal profile implements institutional-standard parameters based on Sharpe ratio optimization and modern portfolio theory principles (Sharpe, 1994). The configuration balances risk and return according to established portfolio management practices.
Calibration Parameters:
VIX Thresholds:
- Extreme High: 35.0 (institutional standard)
- High: 30.0
- Standard adjustment magnitude
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market: -12 points (moderate contrarian approach)
- Recession: -15 points (crisis opportunity capture)
- Balanced risk-return optimization
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 75th percentile (industry standard)
- Caution Buy: 60th percentile
- Optimal signal frequency
Risk Management:
- Standard institutional practices
- Balanced screening criteria
- Moderate leverage tolerance
Aggressive Profile for Active Management
Aggressive settings implement lower thresholds to capture more opportunities, suitable for sophisticated investors capable of managing higher portfolio turnover and drawdown periods, consistent with active management research (Grinold & Kahn, 1999).
Technical Configuration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High: 40.0 (higher threshold for extreme readings)
- Enhanced sensitivity to volatility opportunities
- Maximum contrarian positioning
Adjustment Magnitude:
- Enhanced responsiveness to market conditions
- Larger threshold movements
- Opportunistic crisis positioning
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 70th percentile (increased signal frequency)
- Caution Buy: 55th percentile
- Active trading optimization
Risk Management:
- Higher risk tolerance
- Active monitoring requirements
- Sophisticated investor assumption
Practical Examples and Case Studies
Case Study 1: Conservative DCA Strategy Implementation
Consider a conservative investor implementing dollar-cost averaging during market volatility.
AITM Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Hybrid
- Investor Profile: Conservative
- Sector Adaptation: Enabled
- Macro Integration: Enabled
Market Scenario: March 2020 COVID-19 Market Decline
Market Conditions:
- VIX reading: 82 (extreme high)
- Yield curve: Steep (recession fears)
- Market regime: Bear
- Dollar strength: Elevated
Threshold Calculation:
- Base threshold: 75% (Strong Buy)
- VIX adjustment: -15 points (extreme fear)
- Regime adjustment: -7 points (conservative bear market)
- Final threshold: 53%
Investment Signal:
- Score achieved: 58%
- Signal generated: Strong Buy
- Timing: March 23, 2020 (market bottom +/- 3 days)
Result Analysis:
Enhanced signal frequency during optimal contrarian opportunity period, consistent with research on crisis-period investment opportunities (Baker & Wurgler, 2007). The conservative profile provided appropriate risk management while capturing significant upside during the subsequent recovery.
Case Study 2: Active Trading Implementation
Professional trader utilizing AITM for equity selection.
Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Advanced
- Investor Profile: Aggressive
- Signal Labels: Enabled
- Macro Data: Full integration
Analysis Process:
Step 1: Sector Classification
- Company identified as technology sector
- Enhanced growth weighting applied
- R&D intensity adjustment: +5%
Step 2: Macro Environment Assessment
- Stress level calculation: 2 (moderate)
- VIX level: 28 (moderate high)
- Yield curve: Normal
- Dollar strength: Neutral
Step 3: Dynamic Weighting Calculation
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Regime weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Step 4: Threshold Calculation
- Base threshold: 75%
- Stress adjustment: -12 points
- Final threshold: 63%
Step 5: Score Analysis
- Technical score: 78% (oversold RSI, volume spike)
- Fundamental score: 52% (growth premium but high valuation)
- Macro adjustment: +8% (contrarian VIX opportunity)
- Overall score: 65%
Signal Generation:
Strong Buy triggered at 65% overall score, exceeding the dynamic threshold of 63%. The aggressive profile enabled capture of a technology stock recovery during a moderate volatility period.
Case Study 3: Institutional Portfolio Management
Pension fund implementing systematic rebalancing using AITM framework.
Implementation Framework:
- Threshold Mode: Percentile-Based
- Investor Profile: Normal
- Historical Lookback: 252 days
- Percentile Requirements: 75th/60th
Systematic Process:
Step 1: Historical Analysis
- 252-day rolling window analysis
- Score distribution calculation
- Percentile threshold establishment
Step 2: Current Assessment
- Strong Buy threshold: 78% (75th percentile of trailing year)
- Caution Buy threshold: 62% (60th percentile of trailing year)
- Current market volatility: Normal
Step 3: Signal Evaluation
- Current overall score: 79%
- Threshold comparison: Exceeds Strong Buy level
- Signal strength: High confidence
Step 4: Portfolio Implementation
- Position sizing: 2% allocation increase
- Risk budget impact: Within tolerance
- Diversification maintenance: Preserved
Result:
The percentile-based approach provided dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions while maintaining institutional risk management standards. The systematic implementation reduced behavioral biases while optimizing entry timing.
Risk Management Integration
The AITM framework implements comprehensive risk management following established portfolio theory principles.
Bankruptcy Risk Filter
Implementation of Altman Z-Score methodology (Altman, 1968) with additional liquidity analysis:
Primary Screening Criteria:
- Z-Score threshold: <1.8 (high distress probability)
- Current Ratio threshold: <1.0 (liquidity concerns)
- Combined condition triggers: Automatic signal veto
Enhanced Analysis:
- Industry-adjusted Z-Score calculations
- Trend analysis over multiple quarters
- Peer comparison for context
Risk Mitigation:
- Automatic position size reduction
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Early warning system activation
Liquidity Crisis Detection
Multi-factor liquidity analysis incorporating:
Quick Ratio Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.5 (immediate liquidity stress)
- Industry adjustments for business model differences
- Trend analysis for deterioration detection
Cash-to-Debt Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.1 (structural liquidity issues)
- Debt maturity schedule consideration
- Cash flow sustainability assessment
Working Capital Analysis:
- Operational liquidity assessment
- Seasonal adjustment factors
- Industry benchmark comparisons
Excessive Leverage Screening
Debt analysis following capital structure research:
Debt-to-Equity Analysis:
- General threshold: >4.0 (extreme leverage)
- Sector-specific adjustments for business models
- Trend analysis for leverage increases
Interest Coverage Analysis:
- Threshold: <2.0 (servicing difficulties)
- Earnings quality assessment
- Forward-looking capability analysis
Sector Adjustments:
- REIT-appropriate leverage standards
- Financial institution regulatory requirements
- Utility sector regulated capital structures
Performance Optimization and Best Practices
Timeframe Selection
Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates optimal performance on daily timeframes for equity analysis. Higher frequency data introduces noise while lower frequency reduces responsiveness.
Recommended Implementation:
Primary Analysis:
- Daily (1D) charts for optimal signal quality
- Complete fundamental data integration
- Full macro environment analysis
Secondary Confirmation:
- 4-hour timeframes for intraday confirmation
- Technical indicator validation
- Volume pattern analysis
Avoid for Timing Applications:
- Weekly/Monthly timeframes reduce responsiveness
- Quarterly analysis appropriate for fundamental trends only
- Annual data suitable for long-term research only
Data Quality Requirements
The indicator requires comprehensive fundamental data for optimal performance. Companies with incomplete financial reporting reduce signal reliability.
Quality Standards:
Minimum Requirements:
- 2 years of complete financial data
- Current quarterly updates within 90 days
- Audited financial statements
Optimal Configuration:
- 5+ years for trend analysis
- Quarterly updates within 45 days
- Complete regulatory filings
Geographic Standards:
- Developed market reporting requirements
- International accounting standard compliance
- Regulatory oversight verification
Portfolio Integration Strategies
AITM signals should integrate with comprehensive portfolio management frameworks rather than standalone implementation.
Integration Approach:
Position Sizing:
- Signal strength correlation with allocation size
- Risk-adjusted position scaling
- Portfolio concentration limits
Risk Budgeting:
- Stress-test based allocation
- Scenario analysis integration
- Correlation impact assessment
Diversification Analysis:
- Portfolio correlation maintenance
- Sector exposure monitoring
- Geographic diversification preservation
Rebalancing Frequency:
- Signal-driven optimization
- Transaction cost consideration
- Tax efficiency optimization
Troubleshooting and Common Issues
Missing Fundamental Data
When fundamental data is unavailable, the indicator relies more heavily on technical analysis with reduced reliability.
Solution Approach:
Data Verification:
- Verify ticker symbol accuracy
- Check data provider coverage
- Confirm market trading status
Alternative Strategies:
- Consider ETF alternatives for sector exposure
- Implement technical-only backup scoring
- Use peer company analysis for estimates
Quality Assessment:
- Reduce position sizing for incomplete data
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Conservative threshold application
Sector Misclassification
Automatic sector detection may occasionally misclassify companies with hybrid business models.
Correction Process:
Manual Override:
- Enable Manual Sector Override function
- Select appropriate sector classification
- Verify fundamental ratio alignment
Validation:
- Monitor performance improvement
- Compare against industry benchmarks
- Adjust classification as needed
Documentation:
- Record classification rationale
- Track performance impact
- Update classification database
Extreme Market Conditions
During unprecedented market events, historical relationships may temporarily break down.
Adaptive Response:
Monitoring Enhancement:
- Increase signal monitoring frequency
- Implement additional confirmation requirements
- Enhanced risk management protocols
Position Management:
- Reduce position sizing during uncertainty
- Maintain higher cash reserves
- Implement stop-loss mechanisms
Framework Adaptation:
- Temporary parameter adjustments
- Enhanced fundamental screening
- Increased macro factor weighting
IMPLEMENTATION AND VALIDATION
The model implementation utilizes comprehensive financial data sourced from established providers, with fundamental metrics updated on quarterly frequencies to reflect reporting schedules. Technical indicators are calculated using daily price and volume data, while macroeconomic variables are sourced from federal reserve and market data providers.
Risk management mechanisms incorporate multiple layers of protection against false signals. The bankruptcy risk filter utilizes Altman Z-Scores below 1.8 combined with current ratios below 1.0 to identify companies facing potential financial distress. Liquidity crisis detection employs quick ratios below 0.5 combined with cash-to-debt ratios below 0.1. Excessive leverage screening identifies companies with debt-to-equity ratios exceeding 4.0 and interest coverage ratios below 2.0.
Empirical validation of the methodology has been conducted through extensive backtesting across multiple market regimes spanning the period from 2008 to 2024. The analysis encompasses 11 Global Industry Classification Standard sectors to ensure robustness across different industry characteristics. Monte Carlo simulations provide additional validation of the model's statistical properties under various market scenarios.
RESULTS AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
The AITM framework demonstrates particular effectiveness during market transition periods when traditional indicators often provide conflicting signals. During the 2008 financial crisis, the model's emphasis on fundamental safety metrics and macroeconomic regime detection successfully identified the deteriorating market environment, while the 2020 pandemic-induced volatility provided validation of the VIX-based contrarian signaling mechanism.
Sector adaptation proves especially valuable when analyzing companies with distinct business models. Traditional metrics may suggest poor performance for holding companies with low return on equity, while the AITM sector-specific adjustments recognize that such companies should be evaluated using different criteria, consistent with the findings of specialist literature on conglomerate valuation (Berger & Ofek, 1995).
The model's practical implementation supports multiple investment approaches, from systematic dollar-cost averaging strategies to active trading applications. Conservative parameterization captures approximately 85% of optimal entry opportunities while maintaining strict risk controls, reflecting behavioral finance research on loss aversion (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Aggressive settings focus on superior risk-adjusted returns through enhanced selectivity, consistent with active portfolio management approaches documented by Grinold and Kahn (1999).
LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH
Several limitations constrain the model's applicability and should be acknowledged. The framework requires comprehensive fundamental data availability, limiting its effectiveness for small-cap stocks or markets with limited financial disclosure requirements. Quarterly reporting delays may temporarily reduce the timeliness of fundamental analysis components, though this limitation affects all fundamental-based approaches similarly.
The model's design focus on equity markets limits direct applicability to other asset classes such as fixed income, commodities, or alternative investments. However, the underlying mathematical framework could potentially be adapted for other asset classes through appropriate modification of input variables and weighting schemes.
Future research directions include investigation of machine learning enhancements to the factor weighting mechanisms, expansion of the macroeconomic component to include additional global factors, and development of position sizing algorithms that integrate the model's output signals with portfolio-level risk management objectives.
CONCLUSION
The Adaptive Investment Timing Model represents a comprehensive framework integrating established financial theory with practical implementation guidance. The system's foundation in peer-reviewed research, combined with extensive customization options and risk management features, provides a robust tool for systematic investment timing across multiple investor profiles and market conditions.
The framework's strength lies in its adaptability to changing market regimes while maintaining scientific rigor in signal generation. Through proper configuration and understanding of underlying principles, users can implement AITM effectively within their specific investment frameworks and risk tolerance parameters. The comprehensive user guide provided in this document enables both institutional and individual investors to optimize the system for their particular requirements.
The model contributes to existing literature by demonstrating how established financial theories can be integrated into practical investment tools that maintain scientific rigor while providing actionable investment signals. This approach bridges the gap between academic research and practical portfolio management, offering a quantitative framework that incorporates the complex reality of modern financial markets while remaining accessible to practitioners through detailed implementation guidance.
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Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Koenker, R., & Bassett Jr, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50.
Lakonishok, J., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1994). Contrarian investment, extrapolation, and risk. Journal of Finance, 49(5), 1541-1578.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Malkiel, B. G. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 59-82.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Miller, G. A. (1956). The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. Psychological Review, 63(2), 81-97.
Penman, S. H. (2012). Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Piotroski, J. D. (2000). Value investing: The use of historical financial statement information to separate winners from losers. Journal of Accounting Research, 38, 1-41.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Sharpe, W. F. (1994). The Sharpe ratio. Journal of Portfolio Management, 21(1), 49-58.
Thaler, R. H., & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Whaley, R. E. (1993). Derivatives on market volatility: Hedging tools long overdue. Journal of Derivatives, 1(1), 71-84.
Whaley, R. E. (2000). The investor fear gauge. Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Greensboro: Trend Research.
FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator [BackQuant]FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator
1. Concept and Rationale
The United States Federal Funds Rate is the anchor around which global dollar liquidity and risk-free yield expectations revolve. When the Fed hikes, borrowing costs rise, liquidity tightens and most risk assets encounter head-winds. When it cuts, liquidity expands, speculative appetite often recovers. Bitcoin, a 24-hour permissionless asset sometimes described as “digital gold with venture-capital-like convexity,” is particularly sensitive to macro-liquidity swings.
The FED Divergence Oscillator quantifies the behavioural gap between short-term monetary policy (proxied by the effective Fed Funds Rate) and Bitcoin’s own percentage price change. By converting each series into identical rate-of-change units, subtracting them, then optionally smoothing the result, the script produces a single bounded-yet-dynamic line that tells you, at a glance, whether Bitcoin is outperforming or underperforming the policy backdrop—and by how much.
2. Data Pipeline
• Fed Funds Rate – Pulled directly from the FRED database via the ticker “FRED:FEDFUNDS,” sampled at daily frequency to synchronise with crypto closes.
• Bitcoin Price – By default the script forces a daily timeframe so that both series share time alignment, although you can disable that and plot the oscillator on intraday charts if you prefer.
• User Source Flexibility – The BTC series is not hard-wired; you can select any exchange-specific symbol or even swap BTC for another crypto or risk asset whose interaction with the Fed rate you wish to study.
3. Math under the Hood
(1) Rate of Change (ROC) – Both the Fed rate and BTC close are converted to percent return over a user-chosen lookback (default 30 bars). This means a cut from 5.25 percent to 5.00 percent feeds in as –4.76 percent, while a climb from 25 000 to 30 000 USD in BTC over the same window converts to +20 percent.
(2) Divergence Construction – The script subtracts the Fed ROC from the BTC ROC. Positive values show BTC appreciating faster than policy is tightening (or falling slower than the rate is cutting); negative values show the opposite.
(3) Optional Smoothing – Macro series are noisy. Toggle “Apply Smoothing” to calm the line with your preferred moving-average flavour: SMA, EMA, DEMA, TEMA, RMA, WMA or Hull. The default EMA-25 removes day-to-day whips while keeping turning points alive.
(4) Dynamic Colour Mapping – Rather than using a single hue, the oscillator line employs a gradient where deep greens represent strong bullish divergence and dark reds flag sharp bearish divergence. This heat-map approach lets you gauge intensity without squinting at numbers.
(5) Threshold Grid – Five horizontal guides create a structured regime map:
• Lower Extreme (–50 pct) and Upper Extreme (+50 pct) identify panic capitulations and euphoria blow-offs.
• Oversold (–20 pct) and Overbought (+20 pct) act as early warning alarms.
• Zero Line demarcates neutral alignment.
4. Chart Furniture and User Interface
• Oscillator fill with a secondary DEMA-30 “shader” offers depth perception: fat ribbons often precede high-volatility macro shifts.
• Optional bar-colouring paints candles green when the oscillator is above zero and red below, handy for visual correlation.
• Background tints when the line breaches extreme zones, making macro inflection weeks pop out in the replay bar.
• Everything—line width, thresholds, colours—can be customised so the indicator blends into any template.
5. Interpretation Guide
Macro Liquidity Pulse
• When the oscillator spends weeks above +20 while the Fed is still raising rates, Bitcoin is signalling liquidity tolerance or an anticipatory pivot view. That condition often marks the embryonic phase of major bull cycles (e.g., March 2020 rebound).
• Sustained prints below –20 while the Fed is already dovish indicate risk aversion or idiosyncratic crypto stress—think exchange scandals or broad flight to safety.
Regime Transition Signals
• Bullish cross through zero after a long sub-zero stint shows Bitcoin regaining upward escape velocity versus policy.
• Bearish cross under zero during a hiking cycle tells you monetary tightening has finally started to bite.
Momentum Exhaustion and Mean-Reversion
• Touches of +50 (or –50) come rarely; they are statistically stretched events. Fade strategies either taking profits or hedging have historically enjoyed positive expectancy.
• Inside-bar candlestick patterns or lower-timeframe bearish engulfings simultaneously with an extreme overbought print make high-probability short scalp setups, especially near weekly resistance. The same logic mirrors for oversold.
Pair Trading / Relative Value
• Combine the oscillator with spreads like BTC versus Nasdaq 100. When both the FED Divergence oscillator and the BTC–NDQ relative-strength line roll south together, the cross-asset confirmation amplifies conviction in a mean-reversion short.
• Swap BTC for miners, altcoins or high-beta equities to test who is the divergence leader.
Event-Driven Tactics
• FOMC days: plot the oscillator on an hourly chart (disable ‘Force Daily TF’). Watch for micro-structural spikes that resolve in the first hour after the statement; rapid flips across zero can front-run post-FOMC swings.
• CPI and NFP prints: extremes reached into the release often mean positioning is one-sided. A reversion toward neutral in the first 24 hours is common.
6. Alerts Suite
Pre-bundled conditions let you automate workflows:
• Bullish / Bearish zero crosses – queue spot or futures entries.
• Standard OB / OS – notify for first contact with actionable zones.
• Extreme OB / OS – prime time to review hedges, take profits or build contrarian swing positions.
7. Parameter Playground
• Shorten ROC Lookback to 14 for tactical traders; lengthen to 90 for macro investors.
• Raise extreme thresholds (for example ±80) when plotting on altcoins that exhibit higher volatility than BTC.
• Try HMA smoothing for responsive yet smooth curves on intraday charts.
• Colour-blind users can easily swap bull and bear palette selections for preferred contrasts.
8. Limitations and Best Practices
• The Fed Funds series is step-wise; it only changes on meeting days. Rapid BTC oscillations in between may dominate the calculation. Keep that perspective when interpreting very high-frequency signals.
• Divergence does not equal causation. Crypto-native catalysts (ETF approvals, hack headlines) can overwhelm macro links temporarily.
• Use in conjunction with classical confirmation tools—order-flow footprints, market-profile ledges, or simple price action to avoid “pure-indicator” traps.
9. Final Thoughts
The FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator distills an entire macro narrative monetary policy versus risk sentiment into a single colourful heartbeat. It will not magically predict every pivot, yet it excels at framing market context, spotting stretches and timing regime changes. Treat it as a strategic compass rather than a tactical sniper scope, combine it with sound risk management and multi-factor confirmation, and you will possess a robust edge anchored in the world’s most influential interest-rate benchmark.
Trade consciously, stay adaptive, and let the policy-price tension guide your roadmap.
Alternate Hourly HighlightAlternate Hourly Highlight
This indicator automatically highlights every alternate one-hour window on your chart, making it easy to visually identify and separate each trading hour. The background alternates color every hour, helping traders spot hourly cycles, session changes, or develop time-based trading strategies.
Works on any timeframe.
No inputs required—just add to your chart and go!
Especially useful for intraday traders who analyze price action, volatility, or volume by the hour.
For custom colors or session windows, feel free to modify the script!
Rifle UnifiedThis script is designed for use on 30-second charts of Dow Jones-related symbols (YM, MYM, US30). It provides automated buy and sell signals using a combination of price action, RSI (Relative Strength Index), and volume analysis. The script is intended for both live trading signals and backtesting, with configurable risk management and debugging features.
Core Functionality
1. Signal Generation Logic
Trigger: The algorithm looks for a sharp price move (drop or rise) of a user-defined threshold (default: 80 points) within a specified lookback window (default: 20 minutes).
Levels: It monitors for price drops below specific numerical levels ending in 23, 43, or 73 (e.g., 42223, 42273).
RSI Condition: When price falls below one of these levels and the RSI is below 30, the setup is considered active.
Buy Signal: A buy is triggered if, after setup:
Price rises back above the level,
The RSI rate of change (ROC) indicates exhaustion of the drop,
The current bar shows positive momentum.
2. Trade Management
Stop Loss & Take Profit: Configurable fixed or trailing stop loss and take profit levels are plotted and managed automatically.
Exit Signals: The script signals exit based on price action relative to these risk management levels.
3. Filters & Enhancements
Parabolic Move Filter: Prevents entries during extreme price moves.
Dead Cat Bounce Filter: Avoids false signals after sharp reversals.
Volume Filter: Optionally requires volume conditions for trade entries (especially for shorts).
Multiple Confirmation Layers : Includes checks for 5-minute RSI, momentum, and price retracement.
User Inputs & Customization
Trade Direction: Toggle between LONG and SHORT signal generation.
Trigger Settings: Adjust thresholds for price moves, lookback windows, RSI ROC, and volume requirements.
Trade Settings: Set take profit, stop loss, and trailing stop behavior.
Debug & Visualization: Enable or disable various plots, labels, and debug tables for in-depth analysis.
Backtesting: Integrated backtester with summary and detailed statistics tables.
Technical Features
Uses External Libraries: Relies on RifleShooterLib for core logic and BackTestLib for backtesting and statistics.
Multi-timeframe Analysis: Incorporates both 30-second and 5-minute RSI calculations.
Chart Annotations: Plots entry/exit points, risk levels, and debug information directly on the chart.
Alert Conditions: Built-in alert triggers for key events (initial move, stall, entry).
Intended Use
Markets: Dow Jones symbols (YM, MYM, US30, or US30 CFD).
Timeframe: 30-second chart.
Purpose: Automated signal generation for discretionary or algorithmic trading, with robust risk management and backtesting support.
Notable Customization & Extension Points
Momentum Calculation: Plans to replace the current momentum measure with "sqz momentum".
Displacement Logic: Future update to use "FVG concept" for displacement.
High-Contrast RSI: Optional visual enhancements for RSI extremes.
Time-based Stop: Consideration for adding a time-based stop mechanism.
This script is highly modular, with extensive user controls, and is suitable for both live trading and historical analysis of Dow Jones index movements
Red Report Filter x 'Bull_Trap_9'Hello Traders!
This one is my favorite.
This is indicator / filter: '2 of 2.'
'1 of 2' is the, 'Closed Market Filter,' I posted before this that you may like.
Again, I prefer 'Filter' over 'Indicator' because this Pine Script code does not interact with the actual price data.
It makes handling high impact reports effortless.
As you all know; if you're on a Prop and breach a 'Red,' you lose your account.
This will filter up to 5 reports. More than enough unless you're on EURUSD!
It offers both 'Red' and 'Orange' report control.
The default window times of 15 / 6 are programmed for red events. You can always alter the base code for your desired, 'Before / After.'
Click the tooltip for more info.
How to use:
You do need to update the inputs daily with the current report times before each open.
I trade YM / US markets. Those reports are very repetitive on their delivery times, so I usually leave a 10:00 setting in slot 1. I then toggle it 'On' or 'Off' per demand.
Just open the dialogue box and it is pretty self explanatory.
I used task scheduler for a lot of years, but that wasn't very reliable, modest work to set up daily and a lot of times I may not hear it or it malfunctions because of a Windows update.
TradingView has the little icon that floats from the bottom right, but who really looks for that.
Any audio alert is subject to fail for a number of reasons.
This filter REDS the screen in your face. Leaves no doubt about what's coming.
I know there may be other apps and options out there, but this filter is integral to the TradingView chart itself embedded through Pine Script. It is right there, a click away, easy to input data, and as long as your chart is active and working, the filter will fire.
I did not build an alert condition into this, but I'm sure that could be an option if you want to program in audio as well.
Please Note: Only when the price candles push into the filter zone, will the filter start to display. Run a test a minute from the current price candle and you can see how it functions.
I appreciate your interest.
Intraday & Annual CAPM AlphaIntraday & Annual CAPM Alpha
This TradingView™ Pine v6 indicator computes and plots a stock’s CAPM α (alpha) on both intraday and daily/annualized timeframes, allowing you to monitor relative performance against a chosen benchmark (e.g. SPX, NDX).
⸻
Key Outputs
1. Intraday α per Bar (blue line)
• Calculates α from a rolling-window linear regression of the last N bars’ returns (default 60).
• Expressed as “extra return per bar” vs. the benchmark.
2. Intraday α Daily-Equivalent (stepped blue line)
• Scales the per-bar α to a full trading day (390 minutes), showing “if this pace held all day, outperformance (%)”.
3. Annualized α (yellow line)
• Performs the same CAPM regression on daily returns over a D-day lookback (default 252), then annualizes α by multiplying by 252.
• Indicates longer-term relative strength/weakness vs. the benchmark.
⸻
Inputs
• Benchmark Symbol: Choose any index or ETF (e.g. “SPX”, “NDX”).
• Intraday Lookback Bars: Number of bars for intraday α regression (default 60).
• Daily Lookback Days: Number of trading days for daily CAPM regression (default 252).
• Use Log Returns?: Toggle between arithmetic vs. log returns.
⸻
How to Use
• Short-Term Signals:
• Watch the blue α/bar line on 1–15 min charts. A cross from negative to positive suggests intraday outperformance; a reversal warns of weakening momentum.
• The blue daily-equivalent α gives a smoother view—e.g. > +1% signals strong intraday bias, < –1% signals underperformance.
• Long-Term Trends:
• On daily charts, focus on the yellow annualized α. A sustained positive α implies this stock has historically beaten the benchmark; sustained negative α implies the opposite.
• Combining Timeframes:
• Use intraday α for timing entries/exits within the session, and annualized α to confirm whether you want a bullish or bearish bias over days to weeks.
⸻
Install & Configure
1. Copy the Pine v6 script into the TradingView Pine Editor.
2. Set your favorite benchmark, lookback periods, and returns type.
3. Add to your chart to start visualizing real-time CAPM α signals!
Feel free to adjust the lookback windows and threshold levels to suit your trading style.
Lorentzian Classification - Advanced Trading DashboardLorentzian Classification - Relativistic Market Analysis
A Journey from Theory to Trading Reality
What began as fascination with Einstein's relativity and Lorentzian geometry has evolved into a practical trading tool that bridges theoretical physics and market dynamics. This indicator represents months of wrestling with complex mathematical concepts, debugging intricate algorithms, and transforming abstract theory into actionable trading signals.
The Theoretical Foundation
Lorentzian Distance in Market Space
Traditional Euclidean distance treats all feature differences equally, but markets don't behave uniformly. Lorentzian distance, borrowed from spacetime geometry, provides a more nuanced similarity measure:
d(x,y) = Σ ln(1 + |xi - yi|)
This logarithmic formulation naturally handles:
Scale invariance: Large price moves don't overwhelm small but significant patterns
Outlier robustness: Extreme values are dampened rather than dominating
Non-linear relationships: Captures market behavior better than linear metrics
K-Nearest Neighbors with Relativistic Weighting
The algorithm searches historical market states for patterns similar to current conditions. Each neighbor receives weight inversely proportional to its Lorentzian distance:
w = 1 / (1 + distance)
This creates a "gravitational" effect where closer patterns have stronger influence on predictions.
The Implementation Challenge
Creating meaningful market features required extensive experimentation:
Price Features: Multi-timeframe momentum (1, 2, 3, 5, 8 bar lookbacks) Volume Features: Relative volume analysis against 20-period average
Volatility Features: ATR and Bollinger Band width normalization Momentum Features: RSI deviation from neutral and MACD/price ratio
Each feature undergoes min-max normalization to ensure equal weighting in distance calculations.
The Prediction Mechanism
For each current market state:
Feature Vector Construction: 12-dimensional representation of market conditions
Historical Search: Scan lookback period for similar patterns using Lorentzian distance
Neighbor Selection: Identify K nearest historical matches
Outcome Analysis: Examine what happened N bars after each match
Weighted Prediction: Combine outcomes using distance-based weights
Confidence Calculation: Measure agreement between neighbors
Technical Hurdles Overcome
Array Management: Complex indexing to prevent look-ahead bias
Distance Calculations: Optimizing nested loops for performance
Memory Constraints: Balancing lookback depth with computational limits
Signal Filtering: Preventing clustering of identical signals
Advanced Dashboard System
Main Control Panel
The primary dashboard provides real-time market intelligence:
Signal Status: Current prediction with confidence percentage
Neighbor Analysis: How many historical patterns match current conditions
Market Regime: Trend strength, volatility, and volume analysis
Temporal Context: Real-time updates with timestamp
Performance Analytics
Comprehensive tracking system monitors:
Win Rate: Percentage of successful predictions
Signal Count: Total predictions generated
Streak Analysis: Current winning/losing sequence
Drawdown Monitoring: Maximum equity decline
Sharpe Approximation: Risk-adjusted performance estimate
Risk Assessment Panel
Multi-dimensional risk analysis:
RSI Positioning: Overbought/oversold conditions
ATR Percentage: Current volatility relative to price
Bollinger Position: Price location within volatility bands
MACD Alignment: Momentum confirmation
Confidence Heatmap
Visual representation of prediction reliability:
Historical Confidence: Last 10 periods of prediction certainty
Strength Analysis: Magnitude of prediction values over time
Pattern Recognition: Color-coded confidence levels for quick assessment
Input Parameters Deep Dive
Core Algorithm Settings
K Nearest Neighbors (1-20): More neighbors create smoother but less responsive signals. Optimal range 5-8 for most markets.
Historical Lookback (50-500): Deeper history improves pattern recognition but reduces adaptability. 100-200 bars optimal for most timeframes.
Feature Window (5-30): Longer windows capture more context but reduce sensitivity. Match to your trading timeframe.
Feature Selection
Price Changes: Essential for momentum and reversal detection Volume Profile: Critical for institutional activity recognition Volatility Measures: Key for regime change detection Momentum Indicators: Vital for trend confirmation
Signal Generation
Prediction Horizon (1-20): How far ahead to predict. Shorter horizons for scalping, longer for swing trading.
Signal Threshold (0.5-0.9): Confidence required for signal generation. Higher values reduce false signals but may miss opportunities.
Smoothing (1-10): EMA applied to raw predictions. More smoothing reduces noise but increases lag.
Visual Design Philosophy
Color Themes
Professional: Corporate blue/red for institutional environments Neon: Cyberpunk cyan/magenta for modern aesthetics
Matrix: Green/red hacker-inspired palette Classic: Traditional trading colors
Information Hierarchy
The dashboard system prioritizes information by importance:
Primary Signals: Largest, most prominent display
Confidence Metrics: Secondary but clearly visible
Supporting Data: Detailed but unobtrusive
Historical Context: Available but not distracting
Trading Applications
Signal Interpretation
Long Signals: Prediction > threshold with high confidence
Look for volume confirmation
- Check trend alignment
- Verify support levels
Short Signals: Prediction < -threshold with high confidence
Confirm with resistance levels
- Check for distribution patterns
- Verify momentum divergence
- Market Regime Adaptation
Trending Markets: Higher confidence in directional signals
Ranging Markets: Focus on reversal signals at extremes
Volatile Markets: Require higher confidence thresholds
Low Volume: Reduce position sizes, increase caution
Risk Management Integration
Confidence-Based Sizing: Larger positions for higher confidence signals
Regime-Aware Stops: Wider stops in volatile regimes
Multi-Timeframe Confirmation: Align signals across timeframes
Volume Confirmation: Require volume support for major signals
Originality and Innovation
This indicator represents genuine innovation in several areas:
Mathematical Approach
First application of Lorentzian geometry to market pattern recognition. Unlike Euclidean-based systems, this naturally handles market non-linearities.
Feature Engineering
Sophisticated multi-dimensional feature space combining price, volume, volatility, and momentum in normalized form.
Visualization System
Professional-grade dashboard system providing comprehensive market intelligence in intuitive format.
Performance Tracking
Real-time performance analytics typically found only in institutional trading systems.
Development Journey
Creating this indicator involved overcoming numerous technical challenges:
Mathematical Complexity: Translating theoretical concepts into practical code
Performance Optimization: Balancing accuracy with computational efficiency
User Interface Design: Making complex data accessible and actionable
Signal Quality: Filtering noise while maintaining responsiveness
The result is a tool that brings institutional-grade analytics to individual traders while maintaining the theoretical rigor of its mathematical foundation.
Best Practices
- Parameter Optimization
- Start with default settings and adjust based on:
Market Characteristics: Volatile vs. stable
Trading Timeframe: Scalping vs. swing trading
Risk Tolerance: Conservative vs. aggressive
Signal Confirmation
Never trade on Lorentzian signals alone:
Price Action: Confirm with support/resistance
Volume: Verify with volume analysis
Multiple Timeframes: Check higher timeframe alignment
Market Context: Consider overall market conditions
Risk Management
Position Sizing: Scale with confidence levels
Stop Losses: Adapt to market volatility
Profit Targets: Based on historical performance
Maximum Risk: Never exceed 2-3% per trade
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or guarantee profitable trading results. The Lorentzian classification system reveals market patterns but cannot predict future price movements with certainty. Always use proper risk management, conduct your own analysis, and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Market dynamics are inherently uncertain, and past performance does not guarantee future results. This tool should be used as part of a comprehensive trading strategy, not as a standalone solution.
Bringing the elegance of relativistic geometry to market analysis through sophisticated pattern recognition and intuitive visualization.
Thank you for sharing the idea. You're more than a follower, you're a leader!
@vasanthgautham1221
Trade with precision. Trade with insight.
— Dskyz , for DAFE Trading Systems
Multi-Session ORBThe Multi-Session ORB Indicator is a customizable Pine Script (version 6) tool designed for TradingView to plot Opening Range Breakout (ORB) levels across four major trading sessions: Sydney, Tokyo, London, and New York. It allows traders to define specific ORB durations and session times in Central Daylight Time (CDT), making it adaptable to various trading strategies.
Key Features:
1. Customizable ORB Duration: Users can set the ORB duration (default: 15 minutes) via the inputMax parameter, determining the time window for calculating the high and low of each session’s opening range.
2. Flexible Session Times: The indicator supports user-defined session and ORB times for:
◦ Sydney: Default ORB (17:00–17:15 CDT), Session (17:00–01:00 CDT)
◦ Tokyo: Default ORB (19:00–19:15 CDT), Session (19:00–04:00 CDT)
◦ London: Default ORB (02:00–02:15 CDT), Session (02:00–11:00 CDT)
◦ New York: Default ORB (08:30–08:45 CDT), Session (08:30–16:00 CDT)
3. Session-Specific ORB Levels: For each session, the indicator calculates and tracks the high and low prices during the specified ORB period. These levels are updated dynamically if new highs or lows occur within the ORB timeframe.
4. Visual Representation:
◦ ORB high and low lines are plotted only during their respective session times, ensuring clarity.
◦ Each session’s lines are color-coded for easy identification:
▪ Sydney: Light Yellow (high), Dark Yellow (low)
▪ Tokyo: Light Pink (high), Dark Pink (low)
▪ London: Light Blue (high), Dark Blue (low)
▪ New York: Light Purple (high), Dark Purple (low)
◦ Lines are drawn with a linewidth of 2 and disappear when the session ends or if the timeframe is not intraday (or exceeds the ORB duration).
5. Intraday Compatibility: The indicator is optimized for intraday timeframes (e.g., 1-minute to 15-minute charts) and only displays when the chart’s timeframe multiplier is less than or equal to the ORB duration.
How It Works:
• Session Detection: The script uses the time() function to check if the current bar falls within the user-defined ORB or session time windows, accounting for all days of the week.
• ORB Logic: At the start of each session’s ORB period, the script initializes the high and low based on the first bar’s prices. It then updates these levels if subsequent bars within the ORB period exceed the current high or fall below the current low.
• Plotting: ORB levels are plotted as horizontal lines during the respective session, with visibility controlled to avoid clutter outside session times or on incompatible timeframes.
Use Case:
Traders can use this indicator to identify key breakout levels for each trading session, facilitating strategies based on price action around the opening range. The flexibility to adjust ORB and session times makes it suitable for various markets (e.g., forex, stocks, or futures) and time zones.
Limitations:
• The indicator is designed for intraday timeframes and may not display on higher timeframes (e.g., daily or weekly) or if the timeframe multiplier exceeds the ORB duration.
• Time inputs are in CDT, requiring users to adjust for their local timezone or market requirements.
• If you need to use this for GC/CL/SPY/QQQ you have to adjust the times by one hour.
This indicator is ideal for traders focusing on session-based breakout strategies, offering clear visualization and customization for global market sessions.
RSI Divergence Strategy - AliferCryptoStrategy Overview
The RSI Divergence Strategy is designed to identify potential reversals by detecting regular bullish and bearish divergences between price action and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). It automatically enters positions when a divergence is confirmed and manages risk with configurable stop-loss and take-profit levels.
Key Features
Automatic Divergence Detection: Scans for RSI pivot lows/highs vs. price pivots using user-defined lookback windows and bar ranges.
Dual SL/TP Methods:
- Swing-based: Stops placed a configurable percentage beyond the most recent swing high/low.
- ATR-based: Stops placed at a multiple of Average True Range, with a separate risk/reward multiplier.
Long and Short Entries: Buys on bullish divergences; sells short on bearish divergences.
Fully Customizable: Input groups for RSI, divergence, swing, ATR, and general SL/TP settings.
Visual Plotting: Marks divergences on chart and plots stop-loss (red) and take-profit (green) lines for active trades.
Alerts: Built-in alert conditions for both bullish and bearish RSI divergences.
Detailed Logic
RSI Calculation: Computes RSI of chosen source over a specified period.
Pivot Detection:
- Identifies RSI pivot lows/highs by scanning a lookback window to the left and right.
- Uses ta.barssince to ensure pivots are separated by a minimum/maximum number of bars.
Divergence Confirmation:
- Bullish: Price makes a lower low while RSI makes a higher low.
- Bearish: Price makes a higher high while RSI makes a lower high.
Entry:
- Opens a Long position when bullish divergence is true.
- Opens a Short position when bearish divergence is true.
Stop-Loss & Take-Profit:
- Swing Method: Computes the recent swing high/low then adjusts by a percentage margin.
- ATR Method: Uses the current ATR × multiplier applied to the entry price.
- Take-Profit: Calculated as entry price ± (risk × R/R ratio).
Exit Orders: Uses strategy.exit to place bracket orders (stop + limit) for both long and short positions.
Inputs and Configuration
RSI Settings: Length & price source for the RSI.
Divergence Settings: Pivot lookback parameters and valid bar ranges.
SL/TP Settings: Choice between Swing or ATR method.
Swing Settings: Swing lookback length, margin (%), and risk/reward ratio.
ATR Settings: ATR length, stop multiplier, and risk/reward ratio.
Usage Notes
Adjust the Pivot Lookback and Range values to suit the volatility and timeframe of your market.
Use higher ATR multipliers for wider stops in choppy conditions, or tighten swing margins in trending markets.
Backtest different R/R ratios to find the balance between win rate and reward.
Disclaimer
This script is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading carries significant risk and you may lose more than your initial investment. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a professional before making any trading decisions.
ICT SMC Liquidity Grabs and OBsICT SMC Liquidity Grabs + Order Blocks + Fibonacci OTE Levels
A High-Probability Entry Engine for Smart Money Concept Traders
This script combines three powerful Smart Money Concepts (SMC) into a single tool: Liquidity Grabs, Order Block Zones, and Fibonacci OTE Levels, allowing traders to identify institutional entry models with clean, rule-based visual signals.
It’s designed to simplify SMC trading by highlighting confluence zones where price is likely to reverse or continue — with clear visual zones, entry arrows, and take profit projections.
🔍 What This Script Does:
Detects Liquidity Grabs
Identifies when price sweeps above/below the highest high or lowest low within a user-defined lookback period and closes back inside.
Plots orange labels on the chart to signal potential liquidity events (LG-H / LG-L).
Plots Order Blocks After Liquidity Grabs
After a liquidity grab, the script looks for displacement candles (strong bullish or bearish moves) and draws highlighted OB zones extending several bars to the right.
These zones represent potential institutional footprints for price reversals.
Draws Fibonacci OTE Levels (Optimal Trade Entry)
Uses recent swing high and low pivots to automatically calculate OTE zones (default: 62% and 75% retracement levels).
Draws these retracement zones for both bullish and bearish setups.
Marks Valid OTE Entry Zones
Buy/Sell zones only trigger when:
A liquidity grab occurs,
Price enters the OTE zone,
And a strong confirming candle is present.
Plots green/red arrows for valid buy/sell OTE entries.
Auto-Draws Take Profit Zones
TP1 = Previous swing high/low
TP2 = Risk-based R-multiplied extension (e.g., 1.5R — customizable)
Alerts
Triggers alerts when valid buy or sell OTE setups are detected.
⚙️ Customization Features:
Toggle each feature: Liquidity Grabs, Order Blocks, Fibonacci OTE levels
Set Fibonacci retracement percentages (e.g., 0.62 / 0.75)
Adjust lookback window for liquidity detection
Customize the take-profit multiplier (R-based)
Full control over visuals: colors, labels, and lines
💡 How to Use:
Use this script to scan for high-confluence trade setups based on Smart Money principles.
Combine with session timing (e.g., New York open), major swing structure, or Kill Zone windows for maximum edge.
Look for arrows inside OB zones or OTE levels following liquidity sweeps for cleaner entries.
🔗 Works Best With:
✅ First FVG — Opening Range Fair Value Gap Detector: Identify early inefficiencies to set the narrative for the day.
✅ Liquidity Levels — Smart Swing Lows: Spot key structural lows that can fuel stop hunts and reversals.
✅ ICT Turtle Soup — Liquidity Reversal: Add a classic reversal pattern to your toolkit to catch fakeouts cleanly.
Together, these tools build a complete Smart Money ecosystem for entry precision, risk management, and price behavior forecasting.
