[SHORT ONLY] Consecutive Bars Above MA Strategy█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The "Consecutive Bars Above MA Strategy" is a contrarian trading system aimed at exploiting overextended bullish moves in stocks and ETFs. It monitors the number of consecutive bars that close above a chosen short-term moving average (which can be either a Simple Moving Average or an Exponential Moving Average). Once the count reaches a preset threshold and the current bar’s close exceeds the previous bar’s high within a designated trading window, a short entry is initiated. An optional EMA filter further refines entries by requiring that the current close is below the 200-period EMA, helping to ensure that trades are taken in a bearish environment.
█ HOW ARE THE CONSECUTIVE BULLISH COUNTS CALCULATED?
The strategy utilizes a counter variable, `bullCount`, to track consecutive bullish bars based on their relation to the short-term moving average. Here’s how the count is determined:
Initialize the Counter
The counter is initialized at the start:
var int bullCount = na
Bullish Bar Detection
For each bar, if the close is above the selected moving average (either SMA or EMA, based on user input), the counter is incremented:
bullCount := close > signalMa ? (na(bullCount) ? 1 : bullCount + 1) : 0
Reset on Non-Bullish Condition
If the close does not exceed the moving average, the counter resets to zero, indicating a break in the consecutive bullish streak.
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. SHORT ENTRY
A short signal is generated when:
The number of consecutive bullish bars (i.e., bars closing above the short-term MA) meets or exceeds the defined threshold (default: 3).
The current bar’s close is higher than the previous bar’s high.
The signal occurs within the specified trading window (between Start Time and End Time).
Additionally, if the EMA filter is enabled, the entry is only executed when the current close is below the 200-period EMA.
2. EXIT CONDITION
An exit signal is triggered when the current close falls below the previous bar’s low, prompting the strategy to close the short position.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Threshold: The number of consecutive bullish bars required to trigger a short entry (default is 3).
Trading Window: The Start Time and End Time inputs define when the strategy is active.
Moving Average Settings: Choose between SMA and EMA, and set the MA length (default is 5), which is used to assess each bar’s bullish condition.
EMA Filter (Optional): When enabled, this filter requires that the current close is below the 200-period EMA, supporting entries in a downtrend.
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
This strategy is designed for stocks and ETFs and can be applied across various timeframes.
It seeks to capture mean reversion by shorting after a series of bullish bars suggests an overextended move.
The approach employs a contrarian short entry by waiting for a breakout (close > previous high) following consecutive bullish bars.
The adjustable moving average settings and optional EMA filter allow for further optimization based on market conditions.
Comprehensive backtesting is recommended to fine-tune the threshold, moving average parameters, and filter settings for optimal performance.
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2xSPYTIPS Strategy by Fra public versionThis is a test strategy with S&P500, open source so everyone can suggest everything, I'm open to any advice.
Rules of the "2xSPYTIPS" Strategy :
This trading strategy is designed to operate on the S&P 500 index and the TIPS ETF. Here’s how it works:
1. Buy Conditions ("BUY"):
- The S&P 500 must be above its **200-day simple moving average (SMA 200)**.
- This condition is checked at the **end of each month**.
2. Position Management:
- If leverage is enabled (**2x leverage**), the purchase quantity is increased based on a configurable percentage.
3. Take Profit:
- A **Take Profit** is set at a fixed percentage above the entry price.
4. Visualization & Alerts:
- The **SMA 200** for both S&P 500 and TIPS is plotted on the chart.
- A **BUY signal** appears visually and an alert is triggered.
What This Strategy Does NOT Do
- It does not use a **Stop Loss** or **Trailing Stop**.
- It does not directly manage position exits except through Take Profit.
Iron Bot Statistical Trend Filter📌 Iron Bot Statistical Trend Filter
📌 Overview
Iron Bot Statistical Trend Filter is an advanced trend filtering strategy that combines statistical methods with technical analysis.
By leveraging Z-score and Fibonacci levels, this strategy quantitatively analyzes market trends to provide high-precision entry signals.
Additionally, it includes an optional EMA filter to enhance trend reliability.
Risk management is reinforced with Stop Loss (SL) and four Take Profit (TP) levels, ensuring a balanced approach to risk and reward.
📌 Key Features
🔹 1. Statistical Trend Filtering with Z-Score
This strategy calculates the Z-score to measure how much the price deviates from its historical mean.
Positive Z-score: Indicates a statistically high price, suggesting a strong uptrend.
Negative Z-score: Indicates a statistically low price, signaling a potential downtrend.
Z-score near zero: Suggests a ranging market with no strong trend.
By using the Z-score as a filter, market noise is reduced, leading to more reliable entry signals.
🔹 2. Fibonacci Levels for Trend Reversal Detection
The strategy integrates Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential reversal points in the market.
High Trend Level (Fibo 23.6%): When the price surpasses this level, an uptrend is likely.
Low Trend Level (Fibo 78.6%): When the price falls below this level, a downtrend is expected.
Trend Line (Fibo 50%): Acts as a midpoint, helping to assess market balance.
This allows traders to visually confirm trend strength and turning points, improving entry accuracy.
🔹 3. EMA Filter for Trend Confirmation (Optional)
The strategy includes an optional 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) filter for trend validation.
Price above 200 EMA: Indicates a bullish trend (long entries preferred).
Price below 200 EMA: Indicates a bearish trend (short entries preferred).
Enabling this filter reduces false signals and improves trend-following accuracy.
🔹 4. Multi-Level Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL) Management
To ensure effective risk management, the strategy includes four Take Profit levels and a Stop Loss:
Stop Loss (SL): Automatically closes trades when the price moves against the position by a certain percentage.
TP1 (+0.75%): First profit-taking level.
TP2 (+1.1%): A higher probability profit target.
TP3 (+1.5%): Aiming for a stronger trend move.
TP4 (+2.0%): Maximum profit target.
This system secures profits at different stages and optimizes risk-reward balance.
🔹 5. Automated Long & Short Trading Logic
The strategy is built using Pine Script®’s strategy.entry() and strategy.exit(), allowing fully automated trading.
Long Entry:
Price is above the trend line & high trend level.
Z-score is positive (indicating an uptrend).
(Optional) Price is also above the EMA for stronger confirmation.
Short Entry:
Price is below the trend line & low trend level.
Z-score is negative (indicating a downtrend).
(Optional) Price is also below the EMA for stronger confirmation.
This logic helps filter out unnecessary trades and focus only on high-probability entries.
📌 Trading Parameters
This strategy is designed for flexible capital management and risk control.
💰 Account Size: $5000
📉 Commissions and Slippage: Assumes 94 pips commission per trade and 1 pip slippage.
⚖️ Risk per Trade: Adjustable, with a default setting of 1% of equity.
These parameters help preserve capital while optimizing the risk-reward balance.
📌 Visual Aids for Clarity
To enhance usability, the strategy includes clear visual elements for easy market analysis.
✅ Trend Line (Blue): Indicates market midpoint and helps with entry decisions.
✅ Fibonacci Levels (Yellow): Highlights high and low trend levels.
✅ EMA Line (Green, Optional): Confirms long-term trend direction.
✅ Entry Signals (Green for Long, Red for Short): Clearly marked buy and sell signals.
These features allow traders to quickly interpret market conditions, even without advanced technical analysis skills.
📌 Originality & Enhancements
This strategy is developed based on the IronXtreme and BigBeluga indicators,
combining a unique Z-score statistical method with Fibonacci trend analysis.
Compared to conventional trend-following strategies, it leverages statistical techniques
to provide higher-precision entry signals, reducing false trades and improving overall reliability.
📌 Summary
Iron Bot Statistical Trend Filter is a statistically-driven trend strategy that utilizes Z-score and Fibonacci levels.
High-precision trend analysis
Enhanced accuracy with an optional EMA filter
Optimized risk management with multiple TP & SL levels
Visually intuitive chart design
Fully customizable parameters & leverage support
This strategy reduces false signals and helps traders ride the trend with confidence.
Try it out and take your trading to the next level! 🚀
CCI Buy and Sell Signals with 20/30 EMACCI Buy and Sell Signals with EMA and ATR Stop Loss/Take Profit
This indicator is designed to identify buy and sell signals based on a combination of the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). It also includes an optional ATR-based stop loss and take profit system, which is useful for traders who want to manage their trades with dynamic risk levels.
Features:
CCI Buy and Sell Signals:
Buy Signal: A buy signal is triggered when the CCI crosses up through -100 (from an oversold condition), the 20-period EMA is above the 30-period EMA, and the price is above the 200-period EMA. This suggests that the market is entering an upward trend.
Sell Signal: A sell signal is triggered when the CCI crosses down through +100 (from an overbought condition), the 20-period EMA is below the 30-period EMA, and the price is below the 200-period EMA. This suggests that the market is entering a downward trend.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
The script plots three EMAs:
20-period EMA (Green): Used to identify short-term trends.
30-period EMA (Red): Used to capture medium-term trends.
200-period EMA (Orange): A long-term trend filter, with the price above it generally indicating bullish conditions and below it indicating bearish conditions.
ATR-Based Stop Loss and Take Profit:
Optional Feature: The ATR (Average True Range) indicator can be used to set stop loss and take profit levels based on market volatility.
Stop Loss: Set at a multiple of the ATR below the entry price for long positions and above the entry price for short positions.
Take Profit: Set at a multiple of the ATR above the entry price for long positions and below the entry price for short positions.
Customizable: You can adjust the ATR length, Stop Loss Multiplier, and Take Profit Multiplier through the settings.
Dots: The stop loss and take profit levels are plotted as dots on the chart when the ATR feature is enabled.
Alert Conditions:
Buy Signal Alert: Triggered when a buy signal occurs based on CCI crossing up -100 and other conditions being met.
Sell Signal Alert: Triggered when a sell signal occurs based on CCI crossing down +100 and other conditions being met.
Any Signal Alert: This is a combined alert that triggers for either a buy or sell signal. It helps you stay updated on both types of signals simultaneously.
How to Use:
The indicator will plot buy and sell arrows on the chart, giving clear entry points for trades based on CCI and EMA conditions.
The ATR stop loss and take profit dots (when enabled) provide automatic risk management levels, adjusting dynamically with market volatility.
Traders can customize the ATR settings to fine-tune their stop loss and take profit levels, making this strategy adaptable to different trading styles and market conditions.
Waldo RSI :oWaldo RSI :o Indicator Guide
The Waldo RSI :o indicator is designed to complement the "Waldo RSI Overlay :o" by providing an RSI-based analysis on TradingView, focusing on macro shifts in market trends. Here's a comprehensive guide on how to use this indicator:
Key Features:
RSI Settings:
RSI Source: Choose from ON RSI, ON HIGH, ON LOW, ON CLOSE, or ON OPEN to determine how RSI calculates pivots.
RSI Settings:
Source: Default is (H+L)/2, but you can select any price for RSI calculation.
Length: Default RSI length is 7, which can be adjusted for sensitivity.
Trend Lines:
Show Trend Lines: Option to display trend lines based on RSI pivot points.
Zigzag Length: Determines pivot point sensitivity.
Confirm Length: Validates pivot points (default is 3).
Colors: Customize colors for Higher Highs (HH), Lower Highs (LH), Higher Lows (HL), and Lower Lows (LL) on the RSI.
Label Size and Line Width: Adjust the appearance of labels and lines.
Divergences:
Classic Divergences:
Show Classic Div: Toggle to reveal divergences where RSI and price move in opposite directions.
Colors: Set different colors for bullish and bearish divergence indicators.
Transparency and Line Width: Control the visual impact of divergence signals.
Hidden Divergences:
Similar settings for identifying hidden divergences, suggest trend continuation.
Breakout/Breakdown:
Show Breakout/Breakdown: Generates signals for RSI breakouts or breakdowns, used by "Waldo RSI Overlay :o" for visual chart signals.
Overbought/Oversold Zones:
Show Overbought and OverSold Zones: Highlights when RSI goes above 70 (overbought) or below 30 (oversold).
Moving Averages on RSI:
The default Moving Average (MA) settings are tailored to capture macro shifts in market trends:
Show Moving Averages: Option to overlay two MAs on the RSI for trend confirmation:
Fast RSI MA:
RSI Period: 50 (this is the period over which the RSI is calculated).
MA Length: 50 (the number of periods used for the moving average of the RSI).
Slow RSI MA:
RSI Period: 50 (same as fast for consistency in RSI calculation).
MA Length: 200 (longer term for capturing broader trends).
Crossover Signals: The RSI changes color from red to green based on these moving average crossovers:
When the Fast MA (50 period) crosses above the Slow MA (200 period), the RSI turns green, indicating potential bullish conditions or momentum shift.
Conversely, when the Fast MA crosses below the Slow MA, the RSI turns red, suggesting bearish conditions or a shift back towards a downtrend.
This 50-period RSI crossover setting is used to identify overall macro shifts in the market, providing a clear visual cue for traders looking at longer-term trends.
Ghost Lines (Optional):
Ghost Lines: Option to limit how far RSI trend lines extend, helping to keep the chart less cluttered.
How to Use the Indicator:
Setup:
Configure RSI by choosing the source and setting the length to match your trading style.
Set the zigzag and confirm lengths for appropriate pivot detection.
Trend Analysis:
Monitor the RSI for trend changes using the colored trend lines and labels.
Divergence Detection:
Look for RSI and price divergences to anticipate potential reversals or continuations.
Breakout/Breakdown:
Use these signals in conjunction with "Waldo RSI Overlay :o" for price action confirmation.
Overbought/Oversold:
Identify when the market might be due for a correction or continued momentum.
Moving Averages:
Focus on the color changes in RSI to understand macro trend shifts with the default 50/200 period setup.
Ghost Lines:
Enable for a cleaner chart if you don't need trend lines extending indefinitely.
Usage Tips:
Combine with other indicators for confirmation, as no single tool is foolproof.
Adjust settings to suit different market conditions or trading timeframes.
Use in tandem with "Waldo RSI Overlay :o" for a full trading signal system.
Remember, trading involves significant risk, and historical data does not guarantee future performance. Use this indicator as part of a broader trading strategy.
Dynamic Time Zone EMA with Candle Trend AnalysisCandleTrend TZ is a powerful analytical tool that integrates time zones, exponential moving averages (EMA), and custom candle coloring based on trend direction. This indicator is ideal for traders looking to analyze market trends within specific time sessions effectively.
Key Features:
Time Zones:
Divides the chart into four distinct time intervals, each highlighted with a unique background color.
Fully customizable start and end times for each interval, allowing for adaptation to various trading schedules.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
Displays three EMAs with user-defined lengths:
EMA 200 (blue) for long-term trends.
EMA 50 (green) for medium-term trends.
EMA 20 (red) for short-term trends.
Helps identify trend direction and strength.
Custom Candle Coloring:
Utilizes smoothed Heiken Ashi and Triple EMA (TEMA) calculations for enhanced candle coloring:
Green candles indicate an upward trend.
Red candles signal a downward trend.
Filters out market noise, providing a clear visual representation of market dynamics.
Customization Options:
Time Zones:
Adjustable start and end times for each of the four sessions:
Input hour and minute for start and end times (e.g., Interval 1 Start/End Hour/Minute).
Background colors are pre-defined but can be modified in the code.
EMAs:
User-defined lengths for each EMA:
EMA 200 Length (default: 200)
EMA 50 Length (default: 50)
EMA 20 Length (default: 20)
TEMA Settings:
Parameters for trend smoothing:
TEMA Length (default: 55)
EMA Length (default: 60)
Use Cases:
Intraday Session Analysis:
Use time zones to differentiate between morning, afternoon, and evening market activity.
The background colors make it easy to track session-specific trends.
Trend Trading:
Analyze EMA crossings and their slopes to confirm market direction.
Green candles indicate buying opportunities, while red candles highlight selling signals.
Noise Reduction:
TEMA smoothing removes market noise, allowing you to focus on the primary market trend.
Adaptation to Custom Strategies:
By adjusting time intervals, you can tailor the indicator to specific trading styles or market conditions.
Benefits:
Versatility for both trending and sideways markets.
Intuitive and user-friendly setup.
Suitable for traders of all skill levels, from beginners to professionals.
CandleTrend TZ is an indispensable tool for understanding market dynamics, enhancing your trading precision, and making well-informed decisions. 🚀
Combined Multi-Timeframe EMA OscillatorThis script aims to visualize the strength of bullish or bearish trends by utilizing a mix of 200 EMA across multiple timeframes. I've observed that when the multi-timeframe 200 EMA ribbon is aligned and expanding, the uptrend usually lasts longer and is safer to enter at a pullback for trend continuation. Similarly, when the bands are expanding in reverse order, the downtrend holds longer, making it easier to sell the pullbacks.
In this script, I apply a purely empirical and experimental method: a) Ranking the position of each of the above EMAs and turning it into an oscillator. b) Taking each 200 EMA on separate timeframes, turning it into a stochastic-like oscillator, and then averaging them to compute an overall stochastic.
To filter a bullish signal, I use the bullish crossover between these two aggregated oscillators (default: yellow and blue on the chart) which also plots a green shadow area on the screen and I look for buy opportunities/ ignore sell opportunities while this signal is bullish. Similarly, a bearish crossover gives us a bearish signal which also plots a red shadow area on the screen and I only look for sell opportunities/ ignore any buy opportunities while this signal is bearish.
Note that directly buying the signal as it prints can lead to suboptimal entries. The idea behind the above is that these crossovers point on average to a stronger trend; however, a trade should be initiated on the pullbacks with confirmation from momentum and volume indicators and in confluence with key areas of support and resistance and risk management should be used in order to protect your position.
Disclaimer: This script does not constitute certified financial advice, the current work is purely experimental, use at your own discretion.
Enhanced VIP-like IndicatorSettings Breakdown Tutorial: Optimizing a Trading Strategy
This guide explains the key trading strategy settings and how to customize them based on your trading style and goals. Each parameter is essential for tailoring the strategy to market conditions and your risk appetite.
1. Short Moving Average Length (Default: 9)
• Purpose: Tracks short-term trends using a small number of candles.
• Settings Tips:
• Smaller Values (e.g., 9): Quickly react to price changes, useful for fast-moving markets.
• Larger Values (e.g., 12-15): Generate smoother signals for less volatile trades.
2. Long Moving Average Length (Default: 21)
• Purpose: Identifies long-term trends.
• Settings Tips:
• Higher Values (e.g., 50): Spot broader trends at the expense of slower signals.
• Trend Analysis: The interaction of short and long MAs helps determine bullish or bearish trends (e.g., bullish when short MA crosses above long MA).
3. Higher Timeframe MA Length (Default: 200)
• Purpose: Filters long-term trends on a higher timeframe (e.g., daily).
• Settings Tips:
• 200 Periods: Standard for defining bullish (price above) or bearish (price below) markets.
• Adjustable: Use 100 for faster responses or stick with 200 for reliability.
4. Higher Timeframe (Default: 1 Day)
• Purpose: Defines the timeframe for the higher moving average.
• Settings Tips:
• Shorter Timeframes (e.g., 4 Hours): More frequent trading signals.
• Daily Timeframe: Best for swing trading and identifying macro trends.
5. RSI Length (Default: 14)
• Purpose: Measures momentum over a specific number of candles.
• Settings Tips:
• Lower Values (e.g., 7): More sensitive to price changes, ideal for quick trades.
• Higher Values (e.g., 20): Smooth signals for more stable markets.
6. RSI Overbought (70) and Oversold (30) Levels
• Purpose: Marks thresholds for overbought and oversold conditions.
• Settings Tips:
• Stricter Levels (e.g., 80/20): Fewer, higher-quality signals.
• Looser Levels (e.g., 65/35): More frequent signals, suitable for active trading.
7. Pivot Left Bars (5) and Pivot Right Bars (5)
• Purpose: Confirms pivot points (support/resistance) based on surrounding candles.
• Settings Tips:
• Higher Values (e.g., 10): Stronger but less frequent pivot points.
• Lower Values: More responsive, for traders seeking quick pivots.
8. Take Profit Percentage (Default: 2%)
• Purpose: Defines the profit level to exit trades.
• Settings Tips:
• Higher Values (e.g., 5%): For swing traders holding positions longer.
• Lower Values (e.g., 1%): For scalpers focusing on quick trades.
9. Minimum Volume (Default: 1,000,000)
• Purpose: Ensures sufficient liquidity for trading.
• Settings Tips:
• Lower Values: For lower-volume markets.
• Higher Values: Reduces risk in high-liquidity assets.
10. Stop Loss Percentage (Default: 1%)
• Purpose: Sets the maximum acceptable loss per trade.
• Settings Tips:
• Lower Values (e.g., 0.5%): Reduces risk, suited for conservative trading.
• Higher Values (e.g., 2%): Allows more price fluctuation, ideal for volatile markets.
11. Entry Conditions
• Options:
• MA Crossover & RSI: Combines trend-following and momentum for well-rounded signals.
• Pivot Breakout: Focuses on support/resistance breakouts for high-impact trades.
• Settings Tips:
• Trend-Following Traders: Use MA Crossover & RSI.
12. Exit Conditions
• Options:
• Opposite Signal: Exits when the trade’s opposite condition occurs (e.g., bullish to bearish).
• Fixed Take Profit/Stop Loss: Exits based on predefined profit/loss thresholds.
• Settings Tips:
• Opposite Signal: Ideal for trend-following strategies.
Summary
Customizing these settings aligns the strategy with your trading goals. Test configurations in a demo environment before live trading to refine the approach and optimize results. Always balance profit potential with risk management.
• Fixed Levels: Better for strict risk management.
• Breakout Traders: Opt for Pivot Breakout.
Volume-Based RSI Color Indicator with MAsVolume-Based RSI Color Indicator with MAs
Overview
This script combines the Relative Strength Index (RSI) with volume analysis to provide an enhanced perspective on market conditions. By dynamically coloring the RSI line based on overbought/oversold conditions and volume thresholds, this indicator helps traders quickly identify high-probability reversal zones. Additionally, it incorporates short-term and long-term moving averages (MAs) of the RSI for trend analysis, making it a versatile tool for scalping and swing trading strategies.
Key Features
Dynamic RSI Color Coding:
The RSI line changes color based on two conditions:
Overbought/High Volume: RSI is above the overbought threshold (default: 70) and volume exceeds the average volume by a user-defined multiplier (default: 2.0). The line turns red, indicating potential reversal zones.
Oversold/High Volume: RSI is below the oversold threshold (default: 30) and volume exceeds the average volume by the multiplier. The line turns green, suggesting potential buying opportunities.
Neutral Conditions: Default blue color for all other scenarios.
Volume Integration:
Unlike standard RSI indicators, this script incorporates volume data to refine signals, helping traders avoid false signals in low-volume environments.
RSI Moving Averages:
Two moving averages of the RSI (short-term and long-term) provide trend context:
200-period MA: Highlights the long-term trend in RSI values.
20-period MA: Shows short-term fluctuations for quick decision-making.
Both MAs can be calculated using Simple or Exponential methods, giving users flexibility.
Visual Aids:
Horizontal lines at the overbought (70) and oversold (30) levels help define the boundaries of expected price action extremes.
How It Works
The script calculates the RSI over a user-defined length (default: 14).
Volume data is compared to its moving average to determine if it exceeds the user-defined high-volume threshold.
When RSI and volume conditions align, the RSI line is dynamically colored to indicate potential overbought/oversold zones.
The RSI moving averages provide additional context to confirm trends or reversals.
How to Use
Identify Reversal Zones:
Look for green RSI signals in oversold conditions to identify potential buying opportunities.
Look for red RSI signals in overbought conditions to identify potential selling opportunities.
Use Moving Averages for Confirmation:
When the RSI is above its 200-period MA, the long-term trend is bullish; consider only long trades.
When the RSI is below its 200-period MA, the trend is bearish; consider only short trades.
Combine with Other Tools:
This indicator works best when used alongside price action analysis, candlestick patterns, or support/resistance levels.
Originality
This script is unique in combining volume analysis with RSI and RSI-specific moving averages. While many indicators focus on RSI or volume separately, this script marries these two key metrics to filter out weak signals and improve trade decision accuracy.
Chart Recommendations
Clean Chart: Use this indicator on a clean chart without additional overlays for maximum clarity.
Timeframes: Works well on intraday charts (e.g., 5m, 15m) for scalping and on higher timeframes (e.g., 1H, 4H, Daily) for swing trading.
Disclaimer
This indicator is a tool to aid trading decisions and should not be used in isolation. Always consider other factors such as market conditions, news events, and risk management.
Phase Cross Strategy with Zone### Introduction to the Strategy
Welcome to the **Phase Cross Strategy with Zone and EMA Analysis**. This strategy is designed to help traders identify potential buy and sell opportunities based on the crossover of smoothed oscillators (referred to as "phases") and exponential moving averages (EMAs). By combining these two methods, the strategy offers a versatile tool for both trend-following and short-term trading setups.
### Key Features
1. **Phase Cross Signals**:
- The strategy uses two smoothed oscillators:
- **Leading Phase**: A simple moving average (SMA) with an upward offset.
- **Lagging Phase**: An exponential moving average (EMA) with a downward offset.
- Buy and sell signals are generated when these phases cross over or under each other, visually represented on the chart with green (buy) and red (sell) labels.
2. **Phase Zone Visualization**:
- The area between the two phases is filled with a green or red zone, indicating bullish or bearish conditions:
- Green zone: Leading phase is above the lagging phase (potential uptrend).
- Red zone: Leading phase is below the lagging phase (potential downtrend).
3. **EMA Analysis**:
- Includes five commonly used EMAs (13, 26, 50, 100, and 200) for additional trend analysis.
- Crossovers of the EMA 13 and EMA 26 act as secondary buy/sell signals to confirm or enhance the phase-based signals.
4. **Customizable Parameters**:
- You can adjust the smoothing length, source (price data), and offset to fine-tune the strategy for your preferred trading style.
### What to Pay Attention To
1. **Phases and Zones**:
- Use the green/red phase zone as an overall trend guide.
- Avoid taking trades when the phases are too close or choppy, as it may indicate a ranging market.
2. **EMA Trends**:
- Align your trades with the longer-term trend shown by the EMAs. For example:
- In an uptrend (price above EMA 50 or EMA 200), prioritize buy signals.
- In a downtrend (price below EMA 50 or EMA 200), prioritize sell signals.
3. **Signal Confirmation**:
- Consider combining phase cross signals with EMA crossovers for higher-confidence trades.
- Look for confluence between the phase signals and EMA trends.
4. **Risk Management**:
- Always set stop-loss and take-profit levels to manage risk.
- Use the phase and EMA zones to estimate potential support/resistance areas for exits.
5. **Whipsaws and False Signals**:
- Be cautious in low-volatility or sideways markets, as the strategy may generate false signals.
- Use additional indicators or filters to avoid entering trades during unclear market conditions.
### How to Use
1. Add the strategy to your chart in TradingView.
2. Adjust the input settings (e.g., smoothing length, offsets) to suit your trading preferences.
3. Enable the strategy tester to evaluate its performance on historical data.
4. Combine the signals with your own analysis and risk management plan for best results.
This strategy is a versatile tool, but like any trading method, it requires proper understanding and discretion. Always backtest thoroughly and trade with discipline. Let me know if you need further assistance or adjustments to the strategy!
Landry Light Pine ScannerLandry Light Pine Scanner
The Landry Light Pine Scanner is a comprehensive technical analysis tool designed to identify stocks showing strong upward trends based on the Landry Light methodology. It scans for stocks where:
Today's low and yesterday's low are above the 30 EMA.
The low from two days ago is below the 30 EMA.
SMA 50 is above SMA 150, and SMA 150 is above SMA 200 (a strong bullish SMA hierarchy).
Features:
Trend Detection: Automatically highlights stocks with strong bullish trends based on EMA and SMA alignment.
Customizable Inputs: Users can adjust EMA and SMA lengths to fit their trading style.
Visual Clarity: Plots the 30 EMA, SMA 50, SMA 150, and SMA 200 directly on the chart for easy analysis.
Alert Ready: Integrated with TradingView's alert system to notify users when the conditions are met.
Chart Highlights: Automatically highlights bars that meet the conditions with a subtle green background.
Use Case:
This indicator is ideal for swing traders and position traders looking for potential breakout opportunities. By filtering stocks with a bullish structure, traders can focus on high-probability setups.
Conditions Used:
30 EMA Conditions:
Today's low is above the 30 EMA.
Yesterday's low is above the 30 EMA.
The low from two days ago is below the 30 EMA.
SMA Hierarchy:
SMA 50 is above SMA 150.
SMA 150 is above SMA 200.
Customization Options:
30 EMA Length: Adjustable to match user preferences.
SMA Lengths: SMA 50, SMA 150, and SMA 200 lengths are customizable for flexibility.
Alerts:
Users can set alerts for when the defined conditions are met, making it easy to monitor multiple stocks.
How to Use:
Apply the Indicator:
Add the indicator to your TradingView chart.
Set Alerts:
Use the built-in alert condition for automated notifications.
Analyze Trends:
Look for green-highlighted bars indicating stocks meeting the criteria.
Screen Stocks:
Use this tool as part of your screener to filter stocks efficiently.
Note:
This indicator does not provide buy or sell signals. Always combine it with other technical and fundamental analysis for informed trading decisions.
Publishing Tags:
Landry Light, EMA, SMA, Trend Analysis, Swing Trading, Position Trading, Technical Analysis, Breakout Scanner, TradingView, Pine Script
SMA Ribbon [A]SMA Ribbon with Adjustable MA200
20, 50, 100, and 200 -period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) for trend analysis.
The SMA200 dynamically changes color based on its direction—green when rising and red when falling. Additionally, you can lock the SMA200 to the daily timeframe , allowing it to display the 200-day moving average on lower timeframes, such as 4-hour or 1-hour charts.
Features:
Dynamic SMA200 Color: Automatically adjusts to show upward (green) or downward (red) trends.
Daily SMA200 Option: Enables the SMA200 to represent the 200-day moving average on intraday charts for long-term trend insights.
Smart Adaptation: The daily SMA200 setting is automatically disabled on daily or higher timeframes, ensuring accurate period calculations.
How to Use:
Use this script to identify key support/resistance levels and overall market trends.
Adjust the "Daily MA for MA200" option in the settings to toggle between timeframe-specific and daily-locked SMA200.
This script is ideal for traders seeking a clean and customizable tool for long-term and short-term trend analysis.
WiseOwl Indicator - 1.0 The WiseOwl Indicator - 1.0 is a technical analysis tool designed to help traders identify potential entry points and market trends based on Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) across multiple timeframes. It focuses on providing clear visual cues for bullish and bearish market conditions, as well as potential breakout opportunities.
Key Features
Multi-Timeframe EMA Analysis: Calculates EMAs on the current timeframe, Daily timeframe, and 15-minute timeframe to confirm trends.
Bullish and Bearish Market Identification: Determines market conditions based on the 200-period EMA on the Daily timeframe.
Directional Candle Coloring: Highlights candles based on their position relative to EMAs to provide immediate visual feedback.
Entry Signals: Plots buy and sell signals on the chart when specific conditions are met on the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes.
Breakout Candle Highlighting: Colors candles differently when significant price movements occur, indicating potential breakout opportunities.
How It Works
Market Condition Determination:
Bullish Market: When the close price is above the 200-period EMA on the Daily timeframe.
Bearish Market: When the close price is below the 200-period EMA on the Daily timeframe.
Directional Candle Coloring:
Green Background: Applied when the close is above the 50-period EMA and the market is not bearish.
Red Background: Applied when the close is below the 50-period EMA and the market is not bullish.
Uses the Average True Range (ATR) to define a range threshold.
Suppresses signals when EMAs are within this range, indicating a sideways market.
Plotting Entry Signals:
Plots arrows on the chart for potential long and short entries on the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes.
Breakout Candle Coloring:
Colors candles blue when a bullish breakout condition is met.
Colors candles orange when a bearish breakout condition is met.
How to Use
Trend Identification: Use the background coloring to quickly identify the overall market trend.
Green Background: Suggests bullish conditions; consider looking for long opportunities.
Red Background: Suggests bearish conditions; consider looking for short opportunities.
Entry Signals: Look for plotted arrows on the chart.
Green Upward Arrow: Indicates a potential long entry signal on the 1-hour or 4-hour timeframe.
Red Downward Arrow: Indicates a potential short entry signal on the 1-hour or 4-hour timeframe.
Breakout Opportunities: Watch for candles colored blue or orange.
Blue Candles: Highlight significant upward price movements.
Orange Candles: Highlight significant downward price movements.
Avoiding Ranging Markets: Be cautious when signals are suppressed due to ranging conditions; the market may not have a clear direction.
Example Usage
Identifying a Bullish Market:
The background turns green.
Price crosses above the 50 EMA.
A green upward arrow appears below a candle on the 1-hour or 4-hour chart.
Identifying a Bearish Market:
The background turns red.
Price crosses below the 50 EMA.
A red downward arrow appears above a candle on the 1-hour or 4-hour chart.
Notes
Open-Source Code: The script is open-source, allowing users to review and understand the logic behind the indicator.
Educational Purpose: This indicator is intended to aid in technical analysis and should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
US Party Rule Indicator**Here's a description you can use for the indicator:**
**US Party Rule Indicator**
This indicator visually represents the political party in power in the United States over a specified period. It overlays a colored 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the chart. The color of the EMA changes to reflect the ruling party, providing a visual representation of political influence on market trends.
**Key Features:**
- **Dynamic Color-Coded EMA:** The 200-EMA changes color to indicate the party in power (Red for Republican, Blue for Democrat).
- **Clear Visual Representation:** The colored EMA provides an easy-to-understand visual cue for identifying periods of different political parties.
- **Historical Context:** By analyzing the historical data, you can gain insights into potential correlations between party rule and market trends.
**How to Use:**
1. **Add the Indicator:** Add the "US Party Rule Indicator" to your chart.
2. **Interpret the Color:** The color of the 200-EMA indicates the ruling party at that time.
3. **Analyze Market Trends:** Use the indicator to identify potential correlations between political events and market movements.
**Note:** This indicator is for informational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions. Always conduct thorough research and consider consulting with a financial advisor.
SMA, VWAP with Buy/Sell Signals - First Signal OnlyIndicator: SMA, VWAP with First Buy/Sell Signals
Overview:
This indicator plots two Simple Moving Averages (SMA 20 and SMA 200) and the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) on the chart, with fully customizable colors and line thickness. Additionally, it provides buy and sell signals based on the price action relative to these indicators.
Buy Signal:
A buy signal is generated when a green candle (bullish candle) closes above the SMA 20, SMA 200, and VWAP without touching them (i.e., the low of the candle is above all three). This signal will only be plotted for the first such candle of the day to avoid signal clutter.
Sell Signal:
A sell signal is generated when a candle closes below the SMA 20, SMA 200, and VWAP without touching them (i.e., the high of the candle is below all three). Similar to the buy signal, it will only be plotted for the first qualifying candle of the day.
Customization:
SMAs and VWAP: Users can adjust the lengths, colors, and line thickness of the SMAs and VWAP to suit their preferences.
Signal Shape: You can choose from different shapes (arrow, circle, or cross) to represent the buy and sell signals on the chart.
Key Features:
First Candle Only: Both buy and sell signals are generated only for the first candle that satisfies the conditions, ensuring clean and actionable signals.
Visual Customization: Full control over the appearance of the indicator, including signal shapes and line properties.
Works Across Assets: This indicator is applicable to any asset (stocks, forex, crypto) where price action relative to moving averages and VWAP is important.
Post-Open Long Strategy with ATR-based Stop Loss and Take ProfitThe "Post-Open Long Strategy with ATR-Based Stop Loss and Take Profit" is designed to identify buying opportunities after the German and US markets open. It combines various technical indicators to filter entry signals, focusing on breakout moments following price lateralization periods.
Key Components and Their Interaction:
Bollinger Bands (BB):
Description: Uses BB with a 14-period length and standard deviation multiplier of 1.5, creating narrower bands for lower timeframes.
Role in the Strategy: Identifies low volatility phases (lateralization). The lateralization condition is met when the price is near the simple moving average of the BB, suggesting an imminent increase in volatility.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
10-period EMA: Quickly detects short-term trend direction.
200-period EMA: Filters long-term trends, ensuring entries occur in a bullish market.
Interaction: Positions are entered only if the price is above both EMAs, indicating a consolidated positive trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
Description: 7-period RSI with a threshold above 30.
Role in the Strategy: Confirms the market is not oversold, supporting the validity of the buy signal.
Average Directional Index (ADX):
Description: 7-period ADX with 7-period smoothing and a threshold above 10.
Role in the Strategy: Assesses trend strength. An ADX above 10 indicates sufficient momentum to justify entry.
Average True Range (ATR) for Dynamic Stop Loss and Take Profit:
Description: 14-period ATR with multipliers of 2.0 for Stop Loss and 4.0 for Take Profit.
Role in the Strategy: Adjusts exit levels based on current volatility, enhancing risk management.
Resistance Identification and Breakout:
Description: Analyzes the highs of the last 20 candles to identify resistance levels with at least two touches.
Role in the Strategy: A breakout above this level signals a potential continuation of the bullish trend.
Time Filters and Market Conditions:
Trading Hours: Operates only during the opening of the German market (8:00 - 12:00) and US market (15:30 - 19:00).
Panic Candle: The current candle must close negative, leveraging potential emotional reactions in the market.
Avoiding Entry During Pullbacks:
Description: Checks that the two previous candles are not both bearish.
Role in the Strategy: Avoids entering during a potential pullback, improving trade success probability.
Post-Open Long Strategy with ATR-Based Stop Loss and Take Profit
The "Post-Open Long Strategy with ATR-Based Stop Loss and Take Profit" is designed to identify buying opportunities after the German and US markets open. It combines various technical indicators to filter entry signals, focusing on breakout moments following price lateralization periods.
Key Components and Their Interaction:
Bollinger Bands (BB):
Description: Uses BB with a 14-period length and standard deviation multiplier of 1.5, creating narrower bands for lower timeframes.
Role in the Strategy: Identifies low volatility phases (lateralization). The lateralization condition is met when the price is near the simple moving average of the BB, suggesting an imminent increase in volatility.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
10-period EMA: Quickly detects short-term trend direction.
200-period EMA: Filters long-term trends, ensuring entries occur in a bullish market.
Interaction: Positions are entered only if the price is above both EMAs, indicating a consolidated positive trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
Description: 7-period RSI with a threshold above 30.
Role in the Strategy: Confirms the market is not oversold, supporting the validity of the buy signal.
Average Directional Index (ADX):
Description: 7-period ADX with 7-period smoothing and a threshold above 10.
Role in the Strategy: Assesses trend strength. An ADX above 10 indicates sufficient momentum to justify entry.
Average True Range (ATR) for Dynamic Stop Loss and Take Profit:
Description: 14-period ATR with multipliers of 2.0 for Stop Loss and 4.0 for Take Profit.
Role in the Strategy: Adjusts exit levels based on current volatility, enhancing risk management.
Resistance Identification and Breakout:
Description: Analyzes the highs of the last 20 candles to identify resistance levels with at least two touches.
Role in the Strategy: A breakout above this level signals a potential continuation of the bullish trend.
Time Filters and Market Conditions:
Trading Hours: Operates only during the opening of the German market (8:00 - 12:00) and US market (15:30 - 19:00).
Panic Candle: The current candle must close negative, leveraging potential emotional reactions in the market.
Avoiding Entry During Pullbacks:
Description: Checks that the two previous candles are not both bearish.
Role in the Strategy: Avoids entering during a potential pullback, improving trade success probability.
Entry and Exit Conditions:
Long Entry:
The price breaks above the identified resistance.
The market is in a lateralization phase with low volatility.
The price is above the 10 and 200-period EMAs.
RSI is above 30, and ADX is above 10.
No short-term downtrend is detected.
The last two candles are not both bearish.
The current candle is a "panic candle" (negative close).
Order Execution: The order is executed at the close of the candle that meets all conditions.
Exit from Position:
Dynamic Stop Loss: Set at 2 times the ATR below the entry price.
Dynamic Take Profit: Set at 4 times the ATR above the entry price.
The position is automatically closed upon reaching the Stop Loss or Take Profit.
How to Use the Strategy:
Application on Volatile Instruments:
Ideal for financial instruments that show significant volatility during the target market opening hours, such as indices or major forex pairs.
Recommended Timeframes:
Intraday timeframes, such as 5 or 15 minutes, to capture significant post-open moves.
Parameter Customization:
The default parameters are optimized but can be adjusted based on individual preferences and the instrument analyzed.
Backtesting and Optimization:
Backtesting is recommended to evaluate performance and make adjustments if necessary.
Risk Management:
Ensure position sizing respects risk management rules, avoiding risking more than 1-2% of capital per trade.
Originality and Benefits of the Strategy:
Unique Combination of Indicators: Integrates various technical metrics to filter signals, reducing false positives.
Volatility Adaptability: The use of ATR for Stop Loss and Take Profit allows the strategy to adapt to real-time market conditions.
Focus on Post-Lateralization Breakout: Aims to capitalize on significant moves following consolidation periods, often associated with strong directional trends.
Important Notes:
Commissions and Slippage: Include commissions and slippage in settings for more realistic simulations.
Capital Size: Use a realistic trading capital for the average user.
Number of Trades: Ensure backtesting covers a sufficient number of trades to validate the strategy (ideally more than 100 trades).
Warning: Past results do not guarantee future performance. The strategy should be used as part of a comprehensive trading approach.
With this strategy, traders can identify and exploit specific market opportunities supported by a robust set of technical indicators and filters, potentially enhancing their trading decisions during key times of the day.
TPS Short Strategy by Larry ConnersThe TPS Short strategy aims to capitalize on extreme overbought conditions in an ETF by employing a scaling-in approach when certain technical indicators signal potential reversals. The strategy is designed to short the ETF when it is deemed overextended, based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving averages.
Components:
200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA):
Purpose: Acts as a long-term trend filter. The ETF must be below its 200-day SMA to be eligible for shorting.
Rationale: The 200-day SMA is widely used to gauge the long-term trend of a security. When the price is below this moving average, it is often considered to be in a downtrend (Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll, "The New Technical Trader: Boost Your Profit by Plugging Into the Latest Indicators").
2-Period RSI:
Purpose: Measures the speed and change of price movements to identify overbought conditions.
Criteria: Short 10% of the position when the 2-period RSI is above 75 for two consecutive days.
Rationale: A high RSI value (above 75) indicates that the ETF may be overbought, which could precede a price reversal (J. Welles Wilder, "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems").
Scaling-In Mechanism:
Purpose: Gradually increase the short position as the ETF price rises beyond previous entry points.
Scaling Strategy:
20% more when the price is higher than the first entry.
30% more when the price is higher than the second entry.
40% more when the price is higher than the third entry.
Rationale: This incremental approach allows for an increased position size in a worsening trend, potentially increasing profitability if the trend continues to align with the strategy’s premise (Marty Schwartz, "Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Day Trader").
Exit Conditions:
Criteria: Close all positions when the 2-period RSI drops below 30 or the 10-day SMA crosses above the 30-day SMA.
Rationale: A low RSI value (below 30) suggests that the ETF may be oversold and could be poised for a rebound, while the SMA crossover indicates a potential change in the trend (Martin J. Pring, "Technical Analysis Explained").
Risks and Considerations:
Market Risk:
The strategy assumes that the ETF will continue to decline once shorted. However, markets can be unpredictable, and price movements might not align with the strategy's expectations, especially in a volatile market (Nassim Nicholas Taleb, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable").
Scaling Risks:
Scaling into a position as the price increases may increase exposure to adverse price movements. This method can amplify losses if the market moves against the position significantly before any reversal occurs.
Liquidity Risk:
Depending on the ETF’s liquidity, executing large trades in increments might affect the price and increase trading costs. It is crucial to ensure that the ETF has sufficient liquidity to handle large trades without significant slippage (James Altucher, "Trade Like a Hedge Fund").
Execution Risk:
The strategy relies on timely execution of trades based on specific conditions. Delays or errors in order execution can impact performance, especially in fast-moving markets.
Technical Indicator Limitations:
Technical indicators like RSI and SMA are based on historical data and may not always predict future price movements accurately. They can sometimes produce false signals, leading to potential losses if used in isolation (John Murphy, "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets").
Conclusion
The TPS Short strategy utilizes a combination of long-term trend filtering, overbought conditions, and incremental shorting to potentially profit from price reversals. While the strategy has a structured approach and leverages well-known technical indicators, it is essential to be aware of the inherent risks, including market volatility, liquidity issues, and potential limitations of technical indicators. As with any trading strategy, thorough backtesting and risk management are crucial to its successful implementation.
Currency Futures StatisticsThe "Currency Futures Statistics" indicator provides comprehensive insights into the performance and characteristics of various currency futures. This indicator is crucial for portfolio management as it combines multiple metrics that are instrumental in evaluating currency futures' risk and return profiles.
Metrics Included:
Historical Volatility:
Definition: Historical volatility measures the standard deviation of returns over a specified period, scaled to an annual basis.
Importance: High volatility indicates greater price fluctuations, which translates to higher risk. Investors and portfolio managers use volatility to gauge the stability of a currency future and to make informed decisions about risk management and position sizing (Hull, J. C. (2017). Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives).
Open Interest:
Definition: Open interest represents the total number of outstanding futures contracts that are held by market participants.
Importance: High open interest often signifies liquidity in the market, meaning that entering and exiting positions is less likely to impact the price significantly. It also reflects market sentiment and the degree of participation in the futures market (Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities).
Year-over-Year (YoY) Performance:
Definition: YoY performance calculates the percentage change in the futures contract's price compared to the same week from the previous year.
Importance: This metric provides insight into the long-term trend and relative performance of a currency future. Positive YoY performance suggests strengthening trends, while negative values indicate weakening trends (Fama, E. F. (1991). Efficient Capital Markets: II).
200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) Position:
Definition: This metric indicates whether the current price of the currency future is above or below its 200-day simple moving average.
Importance: The 200-day SMA is a widely used trend indicator. If the price is above the SMA, it suggests a bullish trend, while being below indicates a bearish trend. This information is vital for trend-following strategies and can help in making buy or sell decisions (Bollinger, J. (2001). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands).
Why These Metrics are Important for Portfolio Management:
Risk Assessment: Historical volatility and open interest provide essential information for assessing the risk associated with currency futures. Understanding the volatility helps in estimating potential price swings, which is crucial for managing risk and setting appropriate stop-loss levels.
Liquidity and Market Participation: Open interest is a critical indicator of market liquidity. Higher open interest usually means tighter bid-ask spreads and better liquidity, which facilitates smoother trading and better execution of trades.
Trend Analysis: YoY performance and the SMA position help in analyzing long-term trends. This analysis is crucial for making strategic investment decisions and adjusting the portfolio based on changing market conditions.
Informed Decision-Making: Combining these metrics allows for a holistic view of the currency futures market. This comprehensive view helps in making informed decisions, balancing risks and returns, and optimizing the portfolio to align with investment goals.
In summary, the "Currency Futures Statistics" indicator equips investors and portfolio managers with valuable data points that are essential for effective risk management, liquidity assessment, trend analysis, and overall portfolio optimization.
Larry Connors RSI 3 StrategyThe Larry Connors RSI 3 Strategy is a short-term mean-reversion trading strategy. It combines a moving average filter and a modified version of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify potential buying opportunities in an uptrend. The strategy assumes that a short-term pullback within a long-term uptrend is an opportunity to buy at a discount before the trend resumes.
Components of the Strategy:
200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA): The price must be above the 200-day SMA, indicating a long-term uptrend.
2-Period RSI: This is a very short-term RSI, used to measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. The standard RSI is typically calculated over 14 periods, but Connors uses just 2 periods to capture extreme overbought and oversold conditions.
Three-Day RSI Drop: The RSI must decline for three consecutive days, with the first drop occurring from an RSI reading above 60.
RSI Below 10: After the three-day drop, the RSI must reach a level below 10, indicating a highly oversold condition.
Buy Condition: All the above conditions must be satisfied to trigger a buy order.
Sell Condition: The strategy closes the position when the RSI rises above 70, signaling that the asset is overbought.
Who Was Larry Connors?
Larry Connors is a trader, author, and founder of Connors Research, a firm specializing in quantitative trading research. He is best known for developing strategies that focus on short-term market movements. Connors co-authored several popular books, including "Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies" with Linda Raschke, which has become a staple among traders seeking reliable, rule-based strategies. His research often emphasizes simplicity and robust testing, which appeals to both retail and institutional traders.
Scientific Foundations
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), originally developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1978, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It oscillates between 0 and 100 and is typically used to identify overbought or oversold conditions in an asset. However, the use of a 2-period RSI in Connors' strategy is unconventional, as most traders rely on longer periods, such as 14. Connors' research showed that using a shorter period like 2 can better capture short-term reversals, particularly when combined with a longer-term trend filter such as the 200-day SMA.
Connors' strategies, including this one, are built on empirical research using historical data. For example, in a study of over 1,000 signals generated by this strategy, Connors found that it performed consistently well across various markets, especially when trading ETFs and large-cap stocks (Connors & Alvarez, 2009).
Risks and Considerations
While the Larry Connors RSI 3 Strategy is backed by empirical research, it is not without risks:
Mean-Reversion Assumption: The strategy is based on the premise that markets revert to the mean. However, in strong trending markets, the strategy may underperform as prices can remain oversold or overbought for extended periods.
Short-Term Nature: The strategy focuses on very short-term movements, which can result in frequent trading. High trading frequency can lead to increased transaction costs, which may erode profits.
Market Conditions: The strategy performs best in certain market environments, particularly in stable uptrends. In highly volatile or strongly trending markets, the strategy's performance can deteriorate.
Data and Backtesting Limitations: While backtests may show positive results, they rely on historical data and do not account for future market conditions, slippage, or liquidity issues.
Scientific literature suggests that while technical analysis strategies like this can be effective in certain market conditions, they are not foolproof. According to Lo et al. (2000), technical strategies may show patterns that are statistically significant, but these patterns often diminish once they are widely adopted by traders.
References
Connors, L., & Alvarez, C. (2009). Short-Term Trading Strategies That Work. TradingMarkets Publishing Group.
Lo, A. W., Mamaysky, H., & Wang, J. (2000). Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation. The Journal of Finance, 55(4), 1705-1770.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Trend Research
123 Reversal Trading StrategyThe 123 Reversal Trading Strategy is a technical analysis approach that seeks to identify potential reversal points in the market by analyzing price patterns. This Pine Script™ code implements a version of this strategy, and here’s a detailed description:
Strategy Overview
Objective: The strategy aims to identify bullish reversal patterns using the 123 pattern and manage trades with a specified holding period and a 20-day moving average as an additional exit condition.
Key Components:
Holding Period: The number of days to hold a trade is adjustable, with the default set to 7 days.
Moving Average: A 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is used to determine an exitcondition based on the price crossing this average.
Pattern Recognition:
Condition 1: The low of the current day must be lower than the low of the previous day.
Condition 2: The low of the previous day must be lower than the low from three days ago.
Condition 3: The low two days ago must be lower than the low from four days ago.
Condition 4: The high two days ago must be lower than the high three days ago.
Entry Condition: All four conditions must be met for a buy signal.
Exit Condition: The position is closed either after the specified holding period or when the price reaches or exceeds the 200-day moving average.
Relevant Literature
Graham, B., & Dodd, D. L. (1934). Security Analysis. This classic work introduces fundamental analysis and technical analysis principles which are foundational to understanding patterns like the 123 reversal.
Murphy, J. J. (1999). Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. Murphy provides an extensive overview of technical indicators and chart patterns, including reversal patterns similar to the 123 pattern.
Elder, A. (1993). Trading for a Living. Elder discusses various trading strategies and technical analysis techniques that complement the understanding of reversal patterns and their application in trading.
Risks and Considerations
Pattern Reliability: The 123 reversal pattern, like many technical patterns, is not foolproof. It can generate false signals, especially in volatile or trending markets. This may lead to losses if the pattern does not play out as expected.
Market Conditions: The strategy may perform differently under various market conditions. In strongly trending markets, reversal patterns might not be as reliable.
Lagging Indicators: The use of the 200-day moving average as an exit condition can be considered a lagging indicator. This means it reacts to price movements with a delay, which might result in late exits and missed profit opportunities.
Holding Period: The fixed holding period of 7 days may not be optimal for all market conditions or stocks. It is essential to adjust the holding period based on market dynamics and individual stock behavior.
Overfitting: The parameters used (like the number of days and moving average length) are set based on historical data. Overfitting can occur if these parameters are tailored too specifically to past data, leading to reduced performance in future scenarios.
Conclusion
The 123 Reversal Trading Strategy is designed to identify potential market reversals using specific conditions related to price lows and highs. While it offers a structured approach to trading, it is essential to be aware of its limitations and potential risks. As with any trading strategy, it should be tested thoroughly in various market conditions and adjusted according to the individual trading style and risk tolerance.
Bollinger Bands Enhanced StrategyOverview
The common practice of using Bollinger bands is to use it for building mean reversion or squeeze momentum strategies. In the current script Bollinger Bands Enhanced Strategy we are trying to combine the strengths of both strategies types. It utilizes Bollinger Bands indicator to buy the local dip and activates trailing profit system after reaching the user given number of Average True Ranges (ATR). Also it uses 200 period EMA to filter trades only in the direction of a trend. Strategy can execute only long trades.
Unique Features
Trailing Profit System: Strategy uses user given number of ATR to activate trailing take profit. If price has already reached the trailing profit activation level, scrip will close long trade if price closes below Bollinger Bands middle line.
Configurable Trading Periods: Users can tailor the strategy to specific market windows, adapting to different market conditions.
Major Trend Filter: Strategy utilizes 100 period EMA to take trades only in the direction of a trend.
Flexible Risk Management: Users can choose number of ATR as a stop loss (by default = 1.75) for trades. This is flexible approach because ATR is recalculated on every candle, therefore stop-loss readjusted to the current volatility.
Methodology
First of all, script checks if currently price is above the 200-period exponential moving average EMA. EMA is used to establish the current trend. Script will take long trades on if this filtering system showing us the uptrend. Then the strategy executes the long trade if candle’s low below the lower Bollinger band. To calculate the middle Bollinger line, we use the standard 20-period simple moving average (SMA), lower band is calculated by the substruction from middle line the standard deviation multiplied by user given value (by default = 2).
When long trade executed, script places stop-loss at the price level below the entry price by user defined number of ATR (by default = 1.75). This stop-loss level recalculates at every candle while trade is open according to the current candle ATR value. Also strategy set the trailing profit activation level at the price above the position average price by user given number of ATR (by default = 2.25). It is also recalculated every candle according to ATR value. When price hit this level script plotted the triangle with the label “Strong Uptrend” and start trail the price at the middle Bollinger line. It also started to be plotted as a green line.
When price close below this trailing level script closes the long trade and search for the next trade opportunity.
Risk Management
The strategy employs a combined and flexible approach to risk management:
It allows positions to ride the trend as long as the price continues to move favorably, aiming to capture significant price movements. It features a user-defined ATR stop loss parameter to mitigate risks based on individual risk tolerance. By default, this stop-loss is set to a 1.75*ATR drop from the entry point, but it can be adjusted according to the trader's preferences.
There is no fixed take profit, but strategy allows user to define user the ATR trailing profit activation parameter. By default, this stop-loss is set to a 2.25*ATR growth from the entry point, but it can be adjusted according to the trader's preferences.
Justification of Methodology
This strategy leverages Bollinger bangs indicator to open long trades in the local dips. If price reached the lower band there is a high probability of bounce. Here is an issue: during the strong downtrend price can constantly goes down without any significant correction. That’s why we decided to use 200-period EMA as a trend filter to increase the probability of opening long trades during major uptrend only.
Usually, Bollinger Bands indicator is using for mean reversion or breakout strategies. Both of them have the disadvantages. The mean reversion buys the dip, but closes on the return to some mean value. Therefore, it usually misses the major trend moves. The breakout strategies usually have the issue with too high buy price because to have the breakout confirmation price shall break some price level. Therefore, in such strategies traders need to set the large stop-loss, which decreases potential reward to risk ratio.
In this strategy we are trying to combine the best features of both types of strategies. Script utilizes ate ATR to setup the stop-loss and trailing profit activation levels. ATR takes into account the current volatility. Therefore, when we setup stop-loss with the user-given number of ATR we increase the probability to decrease the number of false stop outs. The trailing profit concept is trying to add the beat feature from breakout strategies and increase probability to stay in trade while uptrend is developing. When price hit the trailing profit activation level, script started to trail the price with middle line if Bollinger bands indicator. Only when candle closes below the middle line script closes the long trade.
Backtest Results
Operating window: Date range of backtests is 2020.10.01 - 2024.07.01. It is chosen to let the strategy to close all opened positions.
Commission and Slippage: Includes a standard Binance commission of 0.1% and accounts for possible slippage over 5 ticks.
Initial capital: 10000 USDT
Percent of capital used in every trade: 30%
Maximum Single Position Loss: -9.78%
Maximum Single Profit: +25.62%
Net Profit: +6778.11 USDT (+67.78%)
Total Trades: 111 (48.65% win rate)
Profit Factor: 2.065
Maximum Accumulated Loss: 853.56 USDT (-6.60%)
Average Profit per Trade: 61.06 USDT (+1.62%)
Average Trade Duration: 76 hours
These results are obtained with realistic parameters representing trading conditions observed at major exchanges such as Binance and with realistic trading portfolio usage parameters.
How to Use
Add the script to favorites for easy access.
Apply to the desired timeframe and chart (optimal performance observed on 4h BTC/USDT).
Configure settings using the dropdown choice list in the built-in menu.
Set up alerts to automate strategy positions through web hook with the text: {{strategy.order.alert_message}}
Disclaimer:
Educational and informational tool reflecting Skyrex commitment to informed trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Test strategies in a simulated environment before live implementation
EMA Cross Fibonacci Entry with RetracementThe EMA Cross Fibonacci Entry with Retracement is a trading strategy that combines two popular technical analysis tools: Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and Fibonacci retracement levels. Here's a brief overview of how this strategy typically works:
### Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)
1. **EMAs Calculation**: EMAs give more weight to recent price data, making them more responsive to price changes. Commonly used periods for EMAs in this strategy are the 50-period and 200-period EMAs.
2. **EMA Cross**: The strategy looks for a "golden cross" (short-term EMA crosses above the long-term EMA) as a potential buy signal, and a "death cross" (short-term EMA crosses below the long-term EMA) as a potential sell signal.
### Fibonacci Retracement Levels
1. **Fibonacci Retracement**: This tool is used to identify potential support and resistance levels based on the Fibonacci sequence. The key retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%.
2. **Drawing Retracement Levels**: Traders draw Fibonacci retracement levels from a significant peak to a significant trough (or vice versa) to identify potential retracement levels where the price might reverse.
### Combining EMA Cross with Fibonacci Retracement
1. **Identify EMA Cross**: First, traders look for an EMA cross. For example, a golden cross where a shorter EMA (e.g., 50 EMA) crosses above a longer EMA (e.g., 200 EMA) suggests a bullish trend.
2. **Wait for Retracement**: After identifying a cross, traders wait for the price to retrace to a Fibonacci level. The key levels to watch are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%.
3. **Entry Point**: The entry point is when the price retraces to a Fibonacci level and shows signs of reversal (e.g., bullish candlestick patterns, support at Fibonacci levels). This is typically when traders enter a long position.
4. **Confirmation with EMA**: Ensure that the EMAs support the trend. For a buy entry, the short-term EMA should remain above the long-term EMA.
### Example of a Bullish Entry
1. **Golden Cross**: 50 EMA crosses above 200 EMA.
2. **Retracement**: Price retraces to the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
3. **Entry Signal**: At the 38.2% level, a bullish candlestick pattern (e.g., hammer) forms, indicating potential support.
4. **Entry Point**: Enter a long position at the close of the bullish candlestick.
### Risk Management
1. **Stop Loss**: Place a stop loss below the next Fibonacci retracement level or below the recent swing low to limit potential losses.
2. **Take Profit**: Set a take profit target based on a risk-reward ratio, previous resistance levels, or further Fibonacci extensions.
### Conclusion
The EMA Cross Fibonacci Entry with Retracement strategy is a systematic approach to identifying entry points in a trending market. By combining the responsiveness of EMAs with the predictive power of Fibonacci retracement levels, traders aim to enter trades at optimal points, increasing their chances of success while managing risk effectively.
Golden Area### Golden Area Indicator Description
The "Golden Area" indicator is a technical analysis tool designed to assist traders by identifying potential buy and sell signals based on moving averages and support/resistance levels within a specific time frame. This indicator can be applied directly to price charts.
#### How It Works
1. **Inputs:**
- **MA50 Length:** The period length for the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).
- **MA200 Length:** The period length for the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).
2. **Calculations:**
- **MA50 (50-period SMA):** Calculated by averaging the closing prices over the past 50 periods.
- **MA200 (200-period SMA):** Calculated by averaging the closing prices over the past 200 periods.
- **Support Level:** The lowest price over the last 50 periods.
- **Resistance Level:** The highest price over the last 50 periods.
3. **Time Filter:**
- **Start Time:** The indicator becomes active at 12:30 IST (07:00 UTC).
- **End Time:** The indicator deactivates at 10:30 IST the next day (05:00 UTC).
- A background color change (yellow) highlights the active time range on the chart.
4. **Signals:**
- **Buy Signal:** Triggered when the current time matches the start time and the closing price is below the support level.
- **Sell Signal:** Triggered when the current time matches the start time and the closing price is above the resistance level.
5. **Plots:**
- **MA50:** Plotted as a blue line on the chart.
- **MA200:** Plotted as a red line on the chart.
- **Buy Signals:** Indicated by a green 'B' below the bars.
- **Sell Signals:** Indicated by a red 'S' above the bars.
This indicator provides visual cues for potential trading opportunities within the specified time frame, aiding traders in making informed decisions.
