Physics MACD double// Physics MACD double 12, 26 and 5, 15
// with rsi and cci rise green on bottom
// with macd 15 rising above 0 with macd 26 below 0 green on top
// with macd 15 below 0 and macd 26 above 0 red on top
// CCI low and increasing lime bottom
// low and high volume change red green bottom circle
// use with Physics Bollinger Bands
Cari dalam skrip untuk "机械革命无界15+时不时闪屏"
90009If( MDI(14)>40 AND ADX(14)>40 AND PDI(14)<15 AND RSI(14)<30,1,0)
;If( MDI(14)<15 AND ADX(14)<15 AND PDI(14)>40 AND RSI(14)>70,-1,0)
VWAP forex Yesterday Hi/Low update fix This script is an updte fix of an earlier script that stopped functioning when TradingView updated Pine script. This script plots Forex (24 hour session) VWAP, yesterday's high, low, open and close (HLOC),
the day before's HLOC -
Also plots higher timeframe 20 emas
1 minute 5, 15, 60 period 20 ema
5 minute 15, 60 period 20 ema
15 minute 60, 120 , 240 period 20 ema
60 minute 120, 240 period 20 ema
120 minute 240, D period 20 ema
240 minute D period 20 ema
Also signals inside bars (high is less than or equal to the previous bar's high and the low is greater than or equal to the previous low) the : true inside bars have a maroon triangle below the bar as well as a ">" above the bar.
If subsequest bars are inside the last bar before the last true inside bar they also are marked with an ">"
This is probably a slight variation from the way Leaf_West plots the inside bars.
It appears that he marks all bars that are inside the original bar until one a bar has a high or low
outside the original bar. But I would need to see an example on his charts.
The Time Session Glitch and the Fix FX_IDC, COINBASE and BITSTAMP:
The script will correctly default to 1700 hrs to 1700hrs EDT/EST session for FXCM.
Strangely some securities appear to erroneously start their session at 1200 hrs ie. My guess is that they are somehow tied to GMT+0 instead of New York time (GMT+5). See this for yourself by selecting EURUSD using the FXCM exchange (FX:EURUSD) and then EURUSD from the IDC exchange (FX_IDC:EURUSD). The FX-IDC session opening range starts 5 hours before it actually should at 1700 hrs EDT/EST. To correct for this I have implemented an automatic fix (default) and a user selected "5 hour time shift adjust. ment needed on some securities".
There is also a 4 hour time shift button which might be necessary when New York reverts from Eastern Standard Time to Eastern Daylight Time (1 hour difference) in March (and then back again in November). In the default auto adjust mode you will need to select the 1 hour time shift. That is if this glitch still exists at that time.
I have looked at other scripts, other than my own and where the script is available, that need to use information about the opening bar and all have the same time shift issue
COINBASE and BITSTAMP open at 0000 hours GMT. Since I use lines instead of circles or crosses I had to make a small adjustment to plot the lines correctly.
If it needs work let me know.
Jayy
VWAP forex Yesterday Hi/Low switchThis script plots VWAP, yesterday's high, low, open and close (HLOC), the day before's HLOC -
Also plots higher timeframe 20 emas including:
1 minute 5, 15, 60 period 20 ema
5 minute 15, 60 period 20 ema
15 minute 60, 120 , 240 period 20 ema
60 minute 120, 240 period 20 ema
120 minute 240, D period 20 ema
240 minute D period 20 ema
Also signals inside bars (high is less than or equal to the previous
bar's high and the low is greater than or equal to the previous low) the : true inside bars have a maroon triangle below the bar as well as a ">" above the bar.
If subsequent bars are inside the last bar before the last true inside bar they also are marked with an ">"
If you have suggestions let me know.
Jayy
[Bitcoin] Lastbattle's nose pickerI've been working on a top and bottom picker script over the past couple of weeks, based on RSI of multiple timeframe closing price. It've been a pretty good trading system that's tested over the last meteoric rise from 220~270 and back down to 230 right now, and I think it should be released to the community.
Sure, I'm not worried about this strategy not working anymore after it is being used by the majority. Everyone have a different view of the market, and this is more towards psychology. It'll likely to hold for as long as there are still humans trading Bitcoins. Bitcoin market is full of emotions, you'll never run out of it.
So why does it work?
If you take a look at the live charts offered by Bitcoinwisdom and Cryptowatch, they only offer 1, 3, 5, and 15 minute timeframe by default with no other option to switch.
Naturally more traders will look at these levels for oversold and overbought condition.
The same indicator does not work for the broader commodities market such as Gold and Silver.
How does it work?
As long as the RSI levels of 1, 3, 5, and 15 minute fulfills the oversold/overbought level, a signal will be given.
The overbought/oversold level gets compensated the higher volatility the market is in.
Note: **
-This is only for exit strategy. If you're on long, consider reducing or exiting your position when it displays a red. On the other hand if you're short, consider reducing or covering your shorts if it shows a green.
-It may give false signal in a trending market, use your trading experience and judgement to filter them out. (eg: uptrend usually have more than 1 legs AND after a long consolidation, RSI gets to oversold/overbought easily... the market will tend to test the support/resistance again.)
-This is tuned for the 15m interval, the script won't work beyond this. I use it for scalping futures. Feel free to change or remove this line 'plot(interval == 15 and '
-Even if it shows a signal, it may not be the true top/bottom. Sometimes there may be a weak diverged leg aka 'last fart', so that's one reason I dont use this for entry until more confirmation is given via other indicators.
** If your chart is zooming all the way down to 0, right click on the price at the right and select 'Scale price only'
Go ahead and try this out with willy, etc and see what works better :D
Credits:
-LazyBear for the volatility switcher script
vdubus BinaryPro - Indicators 1 & 2For both scripts - Go to 'MAKE IT MINE'
Modified scripts for Binary trading 1- 3 min charts / 5 -15 min intervals
vdubus BinaryPro 1
Vdubus BinaryPro 2
------------------------------
Vdubus BinaryPro Money Management Strategy: $10 - $50,000 in 15 trades
Tip * break consecutive trades down to lots of 5 compounded / repeat to build up a solid equity foundation., then move on the the next 5 x 3 = 15
if you lose one trade out of the 5, restart the proses. You only ever lose the initial trade size you started with * DOUBLE YOUR WINNINGS NOT YOUR LOSSES !
If you struggle to win 5 compounded trades in a row, compound 2 or 3 trades at a time
drive.google.com
FVG MagicFVG Magic — Fair Value Gaps with Smart Mitigation, Inversion & Auto-Clean-up
FVG Magic finds every tradable Fair Value Gap (FVG), shows who powered it, and then manages each gap intelligently as price interacts with it—so your chart stays actionable and clean.
Attribution
This tool is inspired by the idea popularized in “Volumatic Fair Value Gaps ” by BigBeluga (licensed CC BY-NC-SA 4.0). Credit to BigBeluga for advancing FVG visualization in the community.
Important: This is a from-scratch implementation—no code was copied from the original. I expanded the concept substantially with a different detection stack, a gap state machine (ACTIVE → 50% SQ → MITIGATED → INVERSED), auto-clean up rules, lookback/nearest-per-side pruning, zoom-proof volume meters, and timeframe auto-tuning for 15m/H1/H4.
What makes this version more accurate
Full-coverage detection (no “missed” gaps)
Default ICT-minimal rule (Bullish: low > high , Bearish: high < low ) catches all valid 3-candle FVGs.
Optional Strict filter (stricter structure checks) for traders who prefer only “clean” gaps.
Optional size percentile filter—off by default so nothing is hidden unless you choose to filter.
Correct handling of confirmations (wick vs close)
Mitigation Source is user-selectable: high/low (wick-based) or close (strict).
This avoids false “misses” when you expect wick confirmations (50% or full fill) but your logic required closes.
State-aware labelling to prevent misleading data
The Bull%/Bear% meter is shown only while a gap is ACTIVE.
As soon as a gap is 50% SQ, MITIGATED, or INVERSED, the meter is hidden and replaced with a clear tag—so you never read stale participation stats.
Robust zoom behaviour
The meter uses a fixed bar-width (not pixels), so it stays proportional and readable at any zoom level.
Deterministic lifecycle (no stale boxes)
Remove on 50% SQ (instant or delayed).
Inversion window after first entry: if price enters but doesn’t invert within N bars, the box auto-removes once fully filled.
Inversion clean up: after a confirmed flip, keep for N bars (context) then delete (or 0 = immediate).
Result: charts auto-maintain themselves and never “lie” about relevance.
Clarity near current price
Nearest-per-side (keep N closest bullish & bearish gaps by distance to the midpoint) focuses attention where it matters without altering detection accuracy.
Lookback (bars) ensures reproducible behaviour across accounts with different data history.
Timeframe-aware defaults
Sensible auto-tuning for 15m / H1 / H4 (right-extension length, meter width, inversion windows, clean up bars) to reduce setup friction and improve consistency.
What it does (under the hood)
Detects FVGs using ICT-minimal (default) or a stricter rule.
Samples volume from a 10× lower timeframe to split participation into Bull % / Bear % (sum = 100%).
Manages each gap through a state machine:
ACTIVE → 50% SQ (midline) → MITIGATED (full) → INVERSED (SR flip after fill).
Auto-clean up keeps only relevant levels, per your rules.
Dashboard (top-right) displays counts by side and the active state tags.
How to use it
First run (show everything)
Use Strict FVG Filter: OFF
Enable Size Filter (percentile): OFF
Mitigation Source: high/low (wick-based) or close (stricter), as you prefer.
Remove on 50% SQ: ON, Delay: 0
Read the context
While ACTIVE, use the Bull%/Bear% meter to gauge demand/supply behind the impulse that created the gap.
Confluence with your HTF structure, sessions, VWAP, OB/FVG, RSI/MACD, etc.
Trade interactions
50% SQ: often the highest-quality interaction; if removal is ON, the box clears = “job done.”
Full mitigation then rejection through the other side → tag changes to INVERSED (acts like SR). Keep for N bars, then auto-remove.
Keep the chart tidy (optional)
If too busy, enable Size Filter or set Nearest per side to 2–4.
Use Lookback (bars) to make behaviour consistent across symbols and histories.
Inputs (key ones)
Use Strict FVG Filter: OFF(default)/ON
Enable Size Filter (percentile): OFF(default)/ON + threshold
Mitigation Source: high/low or close
Remove on 50% SQ + Delay
Inversion window after entry (bars)
Remove inversed after (bars)
Lookback (bars), Nearest per side (N)
Right Extension Bars, Max FVGs, Meter width (bars)
Colours: Bullish, Bearish, Inversed fill
Suggested defaults (per TF)
15m: Extension 50, Max 12, Inversion window 8, Clean up 8, Meter width 20
H1: Extension 25, Max 10, Inversion window 6, Clean up 6, Meter width 15
H4: Extension 15, Max 8, Inversion window 5, Clean up 5, Meter width 10
Notes & edge cases
If a wick hits 50% or the far edge but state doesn’t change, you’re likely on close mode—switch to high/low for wick-based behaviour.
If a gap disappears, it likely met a clean up condition (50% removal, inversion window, inversion clean up, nearest-per-side, lookback, or max-cap).
Meters are hidden after ACTIVE to avoid stale percentages.
MTF 20 SMA Table - DXY**MTF 20 SMA Table - Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis Dashboard**
**Overview:**
This indicator provides a comprehensive multi-timeframe analysis dashboard that displays the relationship between price and the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) across four key timeframes: 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, and Daily. It's designed to help traders quickly identify trend alignment and potential trading opportunities across multiple timeframes at a glance. It's definitely not perfect but has helped me speed up my backtesting efforts as it's worked well for me eliminating flipping back and forth between timeframes excpet when I have confluence on the table, then I check the HTF.
**How It Works:**
The indicator creates a table overlay on your chart showing three critical metrics for each timeframe:
1. **Price vs SMA (Row 1):** Shows whether price is currently above (bullish) or below (bearish) the 20 SMA
- Green = Price Above SMA
- Red = Price Below SMA
2. **SMA Direction (Row 2):** Indicates the trend direction of the SMA itself over a lookback period
- Green (↗ Rising) = Uptrend
- Red (↘ Falling) = Downtrend
- Gray (→ Flat) = Ranging/Consolidation
3. **Strength (Row 3):** Displays the distance between current price and the SMA in pips
- Purple background = Strong move (>50 pips away)
- Orange background = Moderate move (20-50 pips)
- Gray background = Weak/consolidating (<20 pips)
- Text color: Green for positive distance, Red for negative
**Key Features:**
- **Customizable Table Position:** Place the table anywhere on your chart (9 position options)
- **Adjustable SMA Lengths:** Modify the SMA period for each timeframe independently (default: 20)
- **Direction Lookback Settings:** Fine-tune how far back the indicator looks to determine SMA direction for each timeframe
- **Flat Threshold:** Set the pip threshold for determining when an SMA is "flat" vs trending (default: 5 pips)
- **DXY Optimized:** Calculations are calibrated for the US Dollar Index (1 pip = 0.01)
**Best Use Cases:**
1. **Trend Alignment:** Identify when multiple timeframes align in the same direction for higher probability trades
2. **Divergence Spotting:** Detect when lower timeframes diverge from higher timeframes (potential reversals)
3. **Entry Timing:** Use lower timeframe signals while higher timeframes confirm overall trend
4. **Strength Assessment:** Gauge how extended price is from the mean (SMA) to avoid overextended entries
**Settings Guide:**
- **SMA Settings Group:** Adjust the SMA period for each timeframe (15M, 1H, 4H, Daily)
- **SMA Direction Group:** Control lookback periods to determine trend direction
- 15M: Default 5 candles
- 1H: Default 10 candles
- 4H: Default 15 candles
- Daily: Default 20 candles
- **Flat Threshold:** Set sensitivity for "flat" detection (lower = more sensitive to ranging markets)
**Trading Strategy Examples:**
1. **Trend Following:** Look for all timeframes showing the same direction (all green or all red)
2. **Pullback Trading:** When Daily/4H are green but 15M/1H show red, wait for lower timeframes to flip green for entry
3. **Ranging Markets:** When multiple SMAs show "flat", consider range-bound strategies
**Important Notes:**
- This is a reference tool only, not a standalone trading system
- Always use proper risk management and combine with other analysis methods
- Best suited for trending instruments like indices and major forex pairs
- Calculations are optimized for DXY but can be used on other instruments (pip calculations may need adjustment)
**Credits:**
Feel free to modify and improve this code! Suggestions for enhancements are welcome in the comments.
---
**Installation Instructions:**
1. Add the indicator to your TradingView chart
2. Adjust the table position via settings to avoid overlap with price action
3. Customize SMA lengths and lookback periods to match your trading style
4. Monitor the table for timeframe alignment and trend confirmation
---
This indicator is published as open source for the community to learn from and improve upon. Happy trading! 📈
Zarks 4H Range, 15M Triggers Pt2🕓 4-Hour Structure Dividers ⏰
📈 Vertical lines represent each 4-hour candle broken down into smaller execution timeframes — perfect for aligning entries across 15-minute, 5-minute, and 1-minute charts.
🧭 The lines remain true and synchronized with the 4-hour structure, ensuring timing accuracy:
⏱ 15-Minute: Lines appear at :45 of each corresponding hour
⚙️ 5-Minute: Lines appear at :55 of each corresponding hour
🔹 1-Minute: Lines appear at :59 of each corresponding hour
🎯 Use these precise vertical dividers to visualize higher-timeframe structure while executing on lower-timeframe setups — ideal for confluence traders combining HTF bias with LTF precision.
Zarks 4H Range, 15M Triggers Pt1HTF Dividers + 4H Candle Structure + CRT Reference Tool
🔹 Vertical Blue Lines → represent divisions of the 4-hour timeframe, helping you visually segment intraday structure into HTF blocks.
Green Dotted Line → marks the High of each 4-hour interval.
🔵 Blue Dotted Line → shows the Open of that 4-hour interval.
⚫ Gray Dotted Line → displays the Close of that 4-hour interval.
🔴 Red Dotted Line → highlights the Low of that 4-hour interval.
💡 CRT Concepts (Candle Range Theory by Romeo TPT)
CRT signals are not direct buy/sell signals ❌💰 — they serve as contextual reference points 🧭.
A high-probability setup often appears when:
A 4H sweep of a previous candle’s high occurs 🐢 (liquidity manipulation),
Followed by a bearish 15-minute close,
Targeting the 50% retracement of that 4H candle’s range 🎯.
📊 Use this tool to frame market structure across timeframes, align entries with liquidity events, and visualize when price may be expanding from or reverting to institutional reference points.
This indicator is meant to be combined with vertical lines on the 15 min time frame at corresponding times example 1:45,4:45,9:45
Sessions High/Low with Break LogicSessions High/Low with Break Logic – Indicator Description
Update 27.10.25
Overview
This indicator marks the highs and lows of key trading sessions (Tokyo, London, New York) and highlights when these levels are broken. It is ideal for traders using session-based strategies to monitor breakouts or support/resistance levels in real time.
Key Features
Session-Based Highs/Lows:
Tracks highs and lows for three trading sessions:
Tokyo: 02:00–09:00 (UTC+1)
London: 09:00–17:00 (UTC+1)
New York: 15:30–22:00 (UTC+1)
Break Logic:
Detects when the current price breaks a session high or low.
Labels are updated with a "Break" note when a level is breached.
Visual Display:
Draws horizontal lines for highs and lows of each session.
Adds labels with values (optionally including price).
Colors are customizable for each session:
Tokyo: Purple
London: Teal
New York: Orange
Customizable Settings:
Horizontal Offset: Shifts lines and labels horizontally for clarity.
Time Zone: Adjustable to UTC+1 (default).
Price Display: Option to show the exact price next to the label.
Settings and Translations
Display Settings
Horizontal Offset: Horizontal shift for lines and labels.
Show Price with Text: Displays the price next to the label (e.g., "London High: 123.45").
Time Settings
UTC: Time zone (default: UTC+1).
Session 1 (Tokyo)
Session 1: 02:00–09:00
High Text: "Tokyo High"
Low Text: "Tokyo Low"
High Color: Purple
Low Color: Purple
Session 2 (London)
Session 2: 09:00–17:00
High Text: "London High"
Low Text: "London Low"
High Color: Teal
Low Color: Teal
Session 3 (New York)
Session 3: 15:30–22:00
High Text: "New York High"
Low Text: "New York Low"
High Color: Orange
Low Color: Orange
Momentum Breakout Filter + ATR ZonesMomentum Breakout Filter + ATR Zones - User Guide
What This Indicator Does
This indicator helps you with your MACD + volume momentum strategy by:
Filtering out fake breakouts - Shows ⚠️ warnings when breakouts lack confirmation
Showing clear entry signals - 🚀 LONG and 🔻 SHORT labels when all conditions align
Automatic stop loss & profit targets - Based on ATR (Average True Range)
Visual trend confirmation - Background color + EMA alignment
Signal Types
🚀 LONG Entry Signal (Green Label)
Appears when ALL conditions met:
✅ MACD crosses above signal line
✅ Volume > 1.5× average
✅ Price > EMA 9 > EMA 21 > EMA 200 (bullish trend)
✅ Price closes above recent 20-bar high
🔻 SHORT Entry Signal (Red Label)
Appears when ALL conditions met:
✅ MACD crosses below signal line
✅ Volume > 1.5× average
✅ Price < EMA 9 < EMA 21 < EMA 200 (bearish trend)
✅ Price closes below recent 20-bar low
⚠️ FAKE Breakout Warning (Orange Label)
Appears when price breaks high/low BUT lacks confirmation:
❌ Low volume (below 1.5× average), OR
❌ Wick break only (didn't close through level), OR
❌ MACD not aligned with direction
Hover over the warning label to see what's missing!
ATR Stop Loss & Targets
When you get a signal, colored lines automatically appear:
Long Position
Red solid line = Stop Loss (Entry - 1.5×ATR)
Green dashed lines = Profit Targets:
Target 1: Entry + 2×ATR
Target 2: Entry + 3×ATR
Target 3: Entry + 4×ATR
Short Position
Red solid line = Stop Loss (Entry + 1.5×ATR)
Green dashed lines = Profit Targets:
Target 1: Entry - 2×ATR
Target 2: Entry - 3×ATR
Target 3: Entry - 4×ATR
The lines move with each bar until you exit the position.
Chart Elements
Moving Averages
Blue line = EMA 9 (fast)
Orange line = EMA 21 (medium)
White line = EMA 200 (trend filter)
Volume
Yellow bars = High volume (above threshold)
Gray bars = Normal volume
Background Color
Light green = Bullish trend (all EMAs aligned up)
Light red = Bearish trend (all EMAs aligned down)
No color = Neutral/mixed
MACD (Bottom Pane)
Green/Red columns = MACD Histogram
Blue line = MACD Line
Orange line = Signal Line
Info Dashboard (Bottom Right)
ItemWhat It ShowsVolumeCurrent volume vs average (✓ HIGH or ✗ Low)MACDDirection (BULLISH or BEARISH)TrendEMA alignment (BULL, BEAR, or NEUTRAL)ATRCurrent ATR value in dollarsPositionCurrent position (LONG, SHORT, or NONE)R:RRisk-to-Reward ratio (shows when in position)
How To Use It
Basic Workflow
Wait for setup
Watch for MACD to approach signal line
Volume should be building
Price should be near EMA structure
Get confirmation
Wait for 🚀 LONG or 🔻 SHORT label
Check dashboard shows "✓ HIGH" volume
Verify trend is aligned (green or red background)
Enter the trade
Enter when signal appears
Note your stop loss (red line)
Note your targets (green dashed lines)
Manage the trade
Exit at first target for partial profit
Move stop to breakeven
Trail remaining position
What To Avoid
❌ Don't trade when you see:
⚠️ FAKE labels (wait for confirmation)
Neutral background (no clear trend)
"✗ Low" volume in dashboard
MACD and Trend not aligned
Settings You Can Adjust
Volume Sensitivity
High Volume Threshold: Default 1.5×
Increase to 2.0× for cleaner signals (fewer trades)
Decrease to 1.2× for more signals (more trades)
Fake Breakout Filters
You can toggle these ON/OFF:
Volume Confirmation: Requires high volume
Close Through: Requires candle close, not just wick
MACD Alignment: Requires MACD direction match
Tip: Turn all three ON for highest quality signals
ATR Stop/Target Multipliers
Default settings (conservative):
Stop Loss: 1.5×ATR
Target 1: 2×ATR (1.33:1 R:R)
Target 2: 3×ATR (2:1 R:R)
Target 3: 4×ATR (2.67:1 R:R)
Aggressive traders might use:
Stop Loss: 1.0×ATR
Target 1: 2×ATR (2:1 R:R)
Target 2: 4×ATR (4:1 R:R)
Conservative traders might use:
Stop Loss: 2.0×ATR
Target 1: 3×ATR (1.5:1 R:R)
Target 2: 5×ATR (2.5:1 R:R)
Example Trade Scenarios
Scenario 1: Perfect Long Setup ✅
Stock consolidating near EMA 21
MACD curling up toward signal line
Volume bar turns yellow (high volume)
🚀 LONG label appears
Red stop line and green target lines appear
Result: High probability trade
Scenario 2: Fake Breakout Avoided ✅
Price breaks above resistance
Volume is normal (gray bar)
⚠️ FAKE label appears (hover shows "Low volume")
No entry signal
Price falls back below breakout level
Result: Avoided losing trade
Scenario 3: Premature Entry ❌
MACD crosses up
Volume is high
BUT trend is NEUTRAL (no background color)
No signal appears (trend filter blocks it)
Result: Avoided choppy/sideways market
Quick Reference
Entry Checklist
🚀 or 🔻 label on chart
Dashboard shows "✓ HIGH" volume
Dashboard shows aligned MACD + Trend
Colored background (green or red)
ATR lines visible
No ⚠️ FAKE warning
Exit Strategy
Target 1 (2×ATR): Take 50% profit, move stop to breakeven
Target 2 (3×ATR): Take 25% profit, trail stop
Target 3 (4×ATR): Take remaining profit or trail aggressively
Stop Loss: Exit entire position if hit
Alerts
Set up these alerts:
Long Entry: Fires when 🚀 LONG signal appears
Short Entry: Fires when 🔻 SHORT signal appears
Fake Breakout Warning: Fires when ⚠️ appears (optional)
Tips for Success
Use on 5-minute charts for day trading momentum plays
Only trade high volume stocks ($5-20 range works best)
Wait for full confirmation - don't jump early
Respect the stop loss - it's calculated based on volatility
Scale out at targets - don't hold for home runs
Avoid trading first 15 minutes - let market settle
Best during 10am-11am and 2pm-3pm - peak momentum times
Common Questions
Q: Why didn't I get a signal even though MACD crossed?
A: All conditions must be met - check dashboard for what's missing (likely volume or trend alignment)
Q: Can I use this on any timeframe?
A: Yes, but it's designed for 5-15 minute charts. On daily charts, adjust ATR multipliers higher.
Q: The stop loss seems too tight, can I widen it?
A: Yes, increase "Stop Loss (×ATR)" from 1.5 to 2.0 or 2.5 in settings.
Q: I keep seeing FAKE warnings but price keeps going - what gives?
A: The filter is conservative. You can disable some filters in settings, but expect more false signals.
Q: Can I use this for swing trading?
A: Yes, but use larger timeframes (1H or 4H) and adjust ATR multipliers up (3× for stops, 6-9× for targets).
Liquidity Grab + RSI Divergence═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
LIQUIDITY GRAB + RSI DIVERGENCE INDICATOR
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
📌 OVERVIEW
This indicator identifies high-probability reversals by combining:
• Liquidity sweeps (stop hunts)
• RSI divergence confirmation
• Filters false breakouts automatically
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
🟢 BUY SIGNAL (Green Triangle Up)
REQUIRES BOTH CONDITIONS:
1. Liquidity Grab Below Previous Low
• Price breaks BELOW recent low
• Candle CLOSES ABOVE that low
• Traps sellers who shorted the breakdown
2. Bullish RSI Divergence
• Price: Lower Low (LL)
• RSI: Higher Low (HL)
• Shows weakening downward momentum
➜ Result: Potential bullish reversal
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
🔴 SELL SIGNAL (Red Triangle Down)
REQUIRES BOTH CONDITIONS:
1. Liquidity Grab Above Previous High
• Price breaks ABOVE recent high
• Candle CLOSES BELOW that high
• Traps buyers who bought the breakout
2. Bearish RSI Divergence
• Price: Higher High (HH)
• RSI: Lower High (LH)
• Shows weakening upward momentum
➜ Result: Potential bearish reversal
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
📊 VISUAL INDICATORS
Main Signals:
🔺 Large Green Triangle = BUY (Liq Grab + Bullish Div)
🔻 Large Red Triangle = SELL (Liq Grab + Bearish Div)
Reference Levels:
━ Red Line = Previous High Level
━ Green Line = Previous Low Level
Additional Markers (Optional):
○ Small Green Circle = Liquidity grab low only
○ Small Red Circle = Liquidity grab high only
✕ Small Blue Cross = Bullish divergence only
✕ Small Orange Cross = Bearish divergence only
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
⚙️ SETTINGS
1. Lookback Period (Default: 20)
• Range: 5-100
• Sets how far back to identify previous highs/lows
• Higher = fewer but stronger levels
• Lower = more frequent but weaker levels
2. RSI Length (Default: 14)
• Range: 5-50
• Standard RSI calculation period
• 14 is industry standard
3. RSI Divergence Lookback (Default: 5)
• Range: 3-20
• Controls pivot point sensitivity
• Higher = fewer divergence signals
• Lower = more divergence signals
4. Show Labels (Default: ON)
• Toggle BUY/SELL text labels
• Disable for cleaner chart view
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
💡 HOW TO USE
Step 1: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION
• Only trade LARGE TRIANGLE signals
• Ignore small circles/crosses alone
Step 2: CHECK TIMEFRAME
• Best on: 15min, 1H, 4H, Daily
• Avoid: 1min, 5min (too noisy)
Step 3: CONFIRM CONTEXT
• Check overall market trend
• Identify key support/resistance
• Look for confluence with price action
Step 4: ENTRY & RISK MANAGEMENT
• Enter on signal candle close or pullback
• Stop loss below/above the liquidity grab wick
• Target: Previous swing high/low or key levels
• Risk/Reward: Minimum 1:2 ratio
Step 5: SET ALERTS
• Create alert for "BUY Signal"
• Create alert for "SELL Signal"
• Never miss opportunities
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✅ BEST PRACTICES
DO:
✓ Use on multiple timeframes for confluence
✓ Combine with support/resistance zones
✓ Wait for both conditions (liq grab + divergence)
✓ Practice on demo account first
✓ Use proper position sizing
DON'T:
✗ Trade every small circle/cross
✗ Use on very low timeframes (<15min)
✗ Ignore overall market context
✗ Trade without stop loss
✗ Risk more than 1-2% per trade
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⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES
• This is a CONFIRMATION tool, not a holy grail
• No indicator is 100% accurate
• Combine with your trading strategy
• Backtest on your preferred instruments
• Adjust parameters for your trading style
• Higher timeframes = more reliable signals
• Always use risk management
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🔔 ALERTS INCLUDED
Two alert conditions are built-in:
1. "BUY Signal" - Liquidity Grab + Bullish RSI Divergence
2. "SELL Signal" - Liquidity Grab + Bearish RSI Divergence
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📈 RECOMMENDED SETTINGS BY TIMEFRAME
5-15 Min Charts:
• Lookback: 10-15
• RSI Length: 14
• RSI Div Lookback: 3-5
1H-4H Charts:
• Lookback: 20-30
• RSI Length: 14
• RSI Div Lookback: 5-7
Daily Charts:
• Lookback: 30-50
• RSI Length: 14
• RSI Div Lookback: 7-10
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Good luck and trade safe! 🚀
PG ATM Strike Line with Call & Put PremiumsPine Script: ATM Strike Line with Call & Put Premiums (Simplified)This Pine Script for TradingView displays the At-The-Money (ATM) strike price, futures price, call/put premiums (time value), and two ratios—Premium Ratio (PR) and Volume Ratio (VR)—for a user-selected underlying asset (e.g., NIFTY, BANKNIFTY, or stocks). It helps traders gauge near-term market direction using options data.How the Script WorksInputs:Expiry: Select year (e.g., '25), month (01–12), day (01–31) for option expiry (e.g., '251028').
Timeframe: Choose data timeframe (e.g., Daily, 15-min).
Symbol: Auto-detects chart symbol or select from Indian indices/stocks.
Strike: Auto-ATM (based on futures) or manual strike input.
Interval: Auto (e.g., 100 for NIFTY) or custom strike interval.
Colors: Customizable for ATM line, labels (Futures Price, CPR, PPR, VR, PR).
Calculations:Futures Price (FP): Fetches front-month futures price (e.g., NSE:NIFTY1!).
ATM Strike: Rounds futures price to nearest strike interval.
Option Data: Retrieves Last Traded Price (LTP) and volume for ATM call/put options (e.g., NSE:NIFTY251028C24200).
Call Premium (CPR): Call LTP minus intrinsic value (max(0, FP - Strike)).
Put Premium (PPR): Put LTP minus intrinsic value (max(0, Strike - FP)).
Premium Ratio (PR): PPR / CPR.
Volume Ratio (VR): Put Volume / Call Volume.
Visuals:Draws ATM strike line on chart.
Displays labels: FP (futures price), CPR (call premium), PPR (put premium), VR, PR.
VR/PR labels: Red (≥ 1.25, bearish), Green (≤ 0.75, bullish), Gray (0.75–1.25, neutral).
Updates on last confirmed bar to avoid redraws.
Using PR and VR for Market DirectionPremium Ratio (PR):PR ≥ 1.25 (Red): High put premiums suggest bearish sentiment (expect price drop).
PR ≤ 0.75 (Green): High call premiums suggest bullish sentiment (expect price rise).
0.75 < PR < 1.25 (Gray): Neutral, no clear direction.
Use: High PR favors bearish trades (e.g., buy puts); low PR favors bullish trades (e.g., buy calls).
Volume Ratio (VR):VR ≥ 1.25 (Red): High put volume indicates bearish activity.
VR ≤ 0.75 (Green): High call volume indicates bullish activity.
0.75 < VR < 1.25 (Gray): Neutral trading activity.
Use: High VR suggests bearish moves; low VR suggests bullish moves.
Combined Signals:High PR & VR: Strong bearish signal; consider put buying or call selling.
Low PR & VR: Strong bullish signal; consider call buying or put selling.
Mixed/Neutral: Use price action or support/resistance for confirmation.
Tips:Combine with technical analysis (e.g., trends, levels).
Match timeframe to trading horizon (e.g., 15-min for intraday).
Monitor FP for context; check volatility or news for accuracy.
ExampleNIFTY: FP = 24,237.50, ATM = 24,200, CPR = 120.25, PPR = 180.50, PR = 1.50 (Red), VR = 1.30 (Red).
Insight: High PR/VR suggests bearish bias; consider bearish trades if price nears resistance.
Action: Buy puts or exit longs, confirm with price action.
Conclusion: This script provides a concise tool for options traders, showing ATM strike, premiums, and PR/VR ratios. High PR/VR (≥ 1.25) signals bearish sentiment, low PR/VR (≤ 0.75) signals bullish sentiment, and neutral (0.75–1.25) suggests indecision. Combine with technical analysis for robust trading decisions in the Indian options market.
COT IndexTHE HIDDEN INTELLIGENCE IN FUTURES MARKETS
What if you could see what the smartest players in the futures markets are doing before the crowd catches on? While retail traders chase momentum indicators and moving averages, obsess over Japanese candlestick patterns, and debate whether the RSI should be set to fourteen or twenty-one periods, institutional players leave footprints in the sand through their mandatory reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These footprints, published weekly in the Commitment of Traders reports, have been hiding in plain sight for decades, available to anyone with an internet connection, yet remarkably few traders understand how to interpret them correctly. The COT Index indicator transforms this raw institutional positioning data into actionable trading signals, bringing Wall Street intelligence to your trading screen without requiring expensive Bloomberg terminals or insider connections.
The uncomfortable truth is this: Most retail traders operate in a binary world. Long or short. Buy or sell. They apply technical analysis to individual positions, constrained by limited capital that forces them to concentrate risk in single directional bets. Meanwhile, institutional traders operate in an entirely different dimension. They manage portfolios dynamically weighted across multiple markets, adjusting exposure based on evolving market conditions, correlation shifts, and risk assessments that retail traders never see. A hedge fund might be simultaneously long gold, short oil, neutral on copper, and overweight agricultural commodities, with position sizes calibrated to volatility and portfolio Greeks. When they increase gold exposure from five percent to eight percent of portfolio allocation, this rebalancing decision reflects sophisticated analysis of opportunity cost, risk parity, and cross-market dynamics that no individual chart pattern can capture.
This portfolio reweighting activity, multiplied across hundreds of institutional participants, manifests in the aggregate positioning data published weekly by the CFTC. The Commitment of Traders report does not show individual trades or strategies. It shows the collective footprint of how actual commercial hedgers and large speculators have allocated their capital across different markets. When mining companies collectively increase forward gold sales to hedge thirty percent more production than last quarter, they are not reacting to a moving average crossover. They are making strategic allocation decisions based on production forecasts, cost structures, and price expectations derived from operational realities invisible to outside observers. This is portfolio management in action, revealed through positioning data rather than price charts.
If you want to understand how institutional capital actually flows, how sophisticated traders genuinely position themselves across market cycles, the COT report provides a rare window into that hidden world. But understand what you are getting into. This is not a tool for scalpers seeking confirmation of the next five-minute move. This is not an oscillator that flashes oversold at market bottoms with convenient precision. COT analysis operates on a timescale measured in weeks and months, revealing positioning shifts that precede major market turns but offer no precision timing. The data arrives three days stale, published only once per week, capturing strategic positioning rather than tactical entries.
If you need instant gratification, if you trade intraday moves, if you demand mechanical signals with ninety percent accuracy, close this document now. COT analysis rewards patience, position sizing discipline, and tolerance for being early. It punishes impatience, overleveraging, and the expectation that any single indicator can substitute for market understanding.
The premise is deceptively simple. Every Tuesday, large traders in futures markets must report their positions to the CFTC. By Friday afternoon, this data becomes public. Academic research spanning three decades has consistently shown that not all market participants are created equal. Some traders consistently profit while others consistently lose. Some anticipate major turning points while others chase trends into exhaustion. Bessembinder and Chan (1992) demonstrated in their seminal study that commercial hedgers, those with actual exposure to the underlying commodity or financial instrument, possess superior forecasting ability compared to speculators. Their research, published in the Journal of Finance, found statistically significant predictive power in commercial positioning, particularly at extreme levels. This finding challenged the efficient market hypothesis and opened the door to a new approach to market analysis based on positioning rather than price alone.
Think about what this means. Every week, the government publishes a report showing you exactly how the most informed market participants are positioned. Not their opinions. Not their predictions. Their actual money at risk. When agricultural producers collectively hold their largest short hedge in five years, they are not making idle speculation. They are locking in prices for crops they will harvest, informed by private knowledge of weather conditions, soil quality, inventory levels, and demand expectations invisible to outside observers. When energy companies aggressively hedge forward production at current prices, they reveal information about expected supply that no analyst report can capture. This is not technical analysis based on past prices. This is not fundamental analysis based on publicly available data. This is behavioral analysis based on how the smartest money is actually positioned, how institutions allocate capital across portfolios, and how those allocation decisions shift as market conditions evolve.
WHY SOME TRADERS KNOW MORE THAN OTHERS
Building on this foundation, Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) conducted extensive research examining the behaviour patterns of different trader categories. Their work, which analyzed over a decade of COT data across multiple commodity markets, revealed a fascinating dynamic that challenges much of what retail traders are taught. Commercial hedgers consistently positioned themselves against market extremes, buying when speculators were most bearish and selling when speculators reached peak bullishness. The contrarian positioning of commercials was not random noise but rather reflected their superior information about supply and demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, large speculators, primarily hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, exhibited strong trend-following behaviour that often amplified market moves beyond fundamental values. Small traders, the retail participants, consistently entered positions late in trends, frequently near turning points, making them reliable contrary indicators.
Wang (2003) extended this research by demonstrating that the predictive power of commercial positioning varies significantly across different commodity sectors. His analysis of agricultural commodities showed particularly strong forecasting ability, with commercial net positions explaining up to fifteen percent of return variance in subsequent weeks. This finding suggests that the informational advantages of hedgers are most pronounced in markets where physical supply and demand fundamentals dominate, as opposed to purely financial markets where information asymmetries are smaller. When a corn farmer hedges six months of expected harvest, that decision incorporates private observations about rainfall patterns, crop health, pest pressure, and local storage capacity that no distant analyst can match. When an oil refinery hedges crude oil purchases and gasoline sales simultaneously, the spread relationships reveal expectations about refining margins that reflect operational realities invisible in public data.
The theoretical mechanism underlying these empirical patterns relates to information asymmetry and different participant motivations. Commercial hedgers engage in futures markets not for speculative profit but to manage business risks. An agricultural producer selling forward six months of expected harvest is not making a bet on price direction but rather locking in revenue to facilitate financial planning and ensure business viability. However, this hedging activity necessarily incorporates private information about expected supply, inventory levels, weather conditions, and demand trends that the hedger observes through their commercial operations (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). When aggregated across many participants, this private information manifests in collective positioning.
Consider a gold mining company deciding how much forward production to hedge. Management must estimate ore grades, recovery rates, production costs, equipment reliability, labor availability, and dozens of other operational variables that determine whether locking in prices at current levels makes business sense. If the industry collectively hedges more aggressively than usual, it suggests either exceptional production expectations or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Either way, this positioning reveals information unavailable to speculators analyzing price charts and economic data. The hedger sees the physical reality behind the financial abstraction.
Large speculators operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Commodity Trading Advisors managing billions in assets typically employ systematic, trend-following strategies that respond to price momentum rather than fundamental supply and demand. When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to seventy dollars per barrel, these systems generate buy signals. As the rally continues to eighty dollars, position sizes increase. The strategy works brilliantly during sustained trends but becomes a liability at reversals. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the rally. At this point, they represent not smart money anticipating further gains but rather crowded money vulnerable to reversal. Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) documented this pattern across multiple energy markets, showing that extreme speculator positioning typically marked late-stage trend exhaustion rather than early-stage trend development.
Small traders, the retail participants who fall below reporting thresholds, display the weakest forecasting ability. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns, meaning their aggregate positioning served as a reliable contrary indicator. The explanation combines several factors. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, entering trends after mainstream media coverage when institutional participants are preparing to exit. Perhaps most importantly, they trade with emotion, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times.
At major turning points, the three groups often position opposite each other with commercials extremely bearish, large speculators extremely bullish, and small traders piling into longs at the last moment. These high-divergence environments frequently precede increased volatility and trend reversals. The insiders with business exposure quietly exit as the momentum traders hit maximum capacity and retail enthusiasm peaks. Within weeks, the reversal begins, and positions unwind in the opposite sequence.
FROM RAW DATA TO ACTIONABLE SIGNALS
The COT Index indicator operationalizes these academic findings into a practical trading tool accessible through TradingView. At its core, the indicator normalizes net positioning data onto a zero to one hundred scale, creating what we call the COT Index. This normalization is critical because absolute position sizes vary dramatically across different futures contracts and over time. A commercial trader holding fifty thousand contracts net long in crude oil might be extremely bullish by historical standards, or it might be quite neutral depending on the context of total market size and historical ranges. Raw position numbers mean nothing without context. The COT Index solves this problem by calculating where current positioning stands relative to its range over a specified lookback period, typically two hundred fifty-two weeks or approximately five years of weekly data.
The mathematical transformation follows the methodology originally popularized by legendary trader Larry Williams, though the underlying concept appears in statistical normalization techniques across many fields. For any given trader category, we calculate the highest and lowest net position values over the lookback period, establishing the historical range for that specific market and trader group. Current positioning is then expressed as a percentage of this range, where zero represents the most bearish positioning ever seen in the lookback window and one hundred represents the most bullish extreme. A reading of fifty indicates positioning exactly in the middle of the historical range, suggesting neither extreme optimism nor pessimism relative to recent history (Williams and Noseworthy, 2009).
This index-based approach allows for meaningful comparison across different markets and time periods, overcoming the scaling problems inherent in analyzing raw position data. A commercial index reading of eighty-five in gold carries the same interpretive meaning as an eighty-five reading in wheat or crude oil, even though the absolute position sizes differ by orders of magnitude. This standardization enables systematic analysis across entire futures portfolios rather than requiring market-specific expertise for each contract.
The lookback period selection involves a fundamental tradeoff between responsiveness and stability. Shorter lookback periods, perhaps one hundred twenty-six weeks or approximately two and a half years, make the index more sensitive to recent positioning changes. However, it also increases noise and produces more false signals. Longer lookback periods, perhaps five hundred weeks or approximately ten years, create smoother readings that filter short-term noise but become slower to recognize regime changes. The indicator settings allow users to adjust this parameter based on their trading timeframe, risk tolerance, and market characteristics.
UNDERSTANDING CFTC DATA STRUCTURES
The indicator supports both Legacy and Disaggregated COT report formats, reflecting the evolution of CFTC reporting standards over decades of market development. Legacy reports categorize market participants into three broad groups: commercial traders (hedgers with underlying business exposure), non-commercial traders (large speculators seeking profit without commercial interest), and non-reportable traders (small speculators below reporting thresholds). Each category brings distinct motivations and information advantages to the market (CFTC, 2020).
The Disaggregated reports, introduced in September 2009 for physical commodity markets, provide finer granularity by splitting participants into five categories (CFTC, 2009). Producer and merchant positions capture those actually producing, processing, or merchandising the physical commodity. Swap dealers represent financial intermediaries facilitating derivative transactions for clients. Managed money includes commodity trading advisors and hedge funds executing systematic or discretionary strategies. Other reportables encompasses diverse participants not fitting the main categories. Small traders remain as the fifth group, representing retail participation.
This enhanced categorization reveals nuances invisible in Legacy reports, particularly distinguishing between different types of institutional capital and their distinct behavioural patterns. The indicator automatically detects which report type is appropriate for each futures contract and adjusts the display accordingly.
Importantly, Disaggregated reports exist only for physical commodity futures. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans have Disaggregated reports because clear producer, merchant, and swap dealer categories exist. Energy commodities like crude oil and natural gas similarly have well-defined commercial hedger categories. Metals including gold, silver, and copper also receive Disaggregated treatment (CFTC, 2009). However, financial futures such as equity index futures, Treasury bond futures, and currency futures remain available only in Legacy format. The CFTC has indicated no plans to extend Disaggregated reporting to financial futures due to different market structures and participant categories in these instruments (CFTC, 2020).
THE BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION
Understanding which trader perspective to follow requires appreciation of their distinct trading styles, success rates, and psychological profiles. Commercial hedgers exhibit anticyclical behaviour rooted in their fundamental knowledge and business imperatives. When agricultural producers hedge forward sales during harvest season, they are not speculating on price direction but rather locking in revenue for crops they will harvest. Their business requires converting volatile commodity exposure into predictable cash flows to facilitate planning and ensure survival through difficult periods. Yet their aggregate positioning reveals valuable information because these hedging decisions incorporate private information about supply conditions, inventory levels, weather observations, and demand expectations that hedgers observe through their commercial operations (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992).
Consider a practical example from energy markets. Major oil companies continuously hedge portions of forward production based on price levels, operational costs, and financial planning needs. When crude oil trades at ninety dollars per barrel, they might aggressively hedge the next twelve months of production, locking in prices that provide comfortable profit margins above their extraction costs. This hedging appears as short positioning in COT reports. If oil rallies further to one hundred dollars, they hedge even more aggressively, viewing these prices as exceptional opportunities to secure revenue. Their short positioning grows increasingly extreme. To an outside observer watching only price charts, the rally suggests bullishness. But the commercial positioning reveals that the actual producers of oil find these prices attractive enough to lock in years of sales, suggesting skepticism about sustaining even higher levels. When the eventual reversal occurs and oil declines back to eighty dollars, the commercials who hedged at ninety and one hundred dollars profit while speculators who chased the rally suffer losses.
Large speculators or managed money traders operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Their systematic, momentum-driven strategies mean they amplify existing trends rather than anticipate reversals. Trend-following systems, the most common approach among large speculators, by definition require confirmation of trend through price momentum before entering positions (Sanders, Boris and Manfredo, 2004). When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to eighty dollars per barrel over several months, trend-following algorithms generate buy signals based on moving average crossovers, breakouts, and other momentum indicators. As the rally continues, position sizes increase according to the systematic rules.
However, this approach becomes a liability at turning points. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars after a sustained rally, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the move. At this point, their positioning does not predict continued strength. Rather, it often marks late-stage trend exhaustion. The psychological and mechanical explanation is straightforward. Trend followers by definition chase price momentum, entering positions after trends establish rather than anticipating them. Eventually, they become fully invested just as the trend nears completion, leaving no incremental buying power to sustain the rally. When the first signs of reversal appear, systematic stops trigger, creating a cascade of selling that accelerates the downturn.
Small traders consistently display the weakest track record across academic studies. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns in his analysis across multiple commodity markets. This result means that whatever small traders collectively do, the opposite typically proves profitable. The explanation for small trader underperformance combines several factors documented in behavioral finance literature. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, learning about commodity trends through mainstream media coverage that arrives after institutional participants have already positioned. Perhaps most importantly, retail traders are more susceptible to emotional decision-making, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times (Tharp, 2008).
SETTINGS, THRESHOLDS, AND SIGNAL GENERATION
The practical implementation of the COT Index requires understanding several key features and settings that users can adjust to match their trading style, timeframe, and risk tolerance. The lookback period determines the time window for calculating historical ranges. The default setting of two hundred fifty-two bars represents approximately one year on daily charts or five years on weekly charts, balancing responsiveness with stability. Conservative traders seeking only the most extreme, highest-probability signals might extend the lookback to five hundred bars or more. Aggressive traders seeking earlier entry and willing to accept more false positives might reduce it to one hundred twenty-six bars or even less for shorter-term applications.
The bullish and bearish thresholds define signal generation levels. Default settings of eighty and twenty respectively reflect academic research suggesting meaningful information content at these extremes. Readings above eighty indicate positioning in the top quintile of the historical range, representing genuine extremes rather than temporary fluctuations. Conversely, readings below twenty occupy the bottom quintile, indicating unusually bearish positioning (Briese, 2008).
However, traders must recognize that appropriate thresholds vary by market, trader category, and personal risk tolerance. Some futures markets exhibit wider positioning swings than others due to seasonal patterns, volatility characteristics, or participant behavior. Conservative traders seeking high-probability setups with fewer signals might raise thresholds to eighty-five and fifteen. Aggressive traders willing to accept more false positives for earlier entry could lower them to seventy-five and twenty-five.
The key is maintaining meaningful differentiation between bullish, neutral, and bearish zones. The default settings of eighty and twenty create a clear three-zone structure. Readings from zero to twenty represent bearish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bearish positions. Readings from twenty to eighty represent neutral territory where positioning falls within normal historical ranges. Readings from eighty to one hundred represent bullish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bullish positions.
The trading perspective selection determines which participant group the indicator follows, fundamentally shaping interpretation and signal meaning. For counter-trend traders seeking reversal opportunities, monitoring commercial positioning makes intuitive sense based on the academic research discussed earlier. When commercials reach extreme bearish readings below twenty, indicating unprecedented short positioning relative to recent history, they are effectively betting against the crowd. Given their informational advantages demonstrated by Bessembinder and Chan (1992), this contrarian stance often precedes major bottoms.
Trend followers might instead monitor large speculator positioning, but with inverted logic compared to commercials. When managed money reaches extreme bullish readings above eighty, the trend may be exhausting rather than accelerating. This seeming paradox reflects their late-cycle participation documented by Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004). Sophisticated traders thus use speculator extremes as fade signals, entering positions opposite to speculator consensus.
Small trader monitoring serves primarily as a contrary indicator for all trading styles. Extreme small trader bullishness above seventy-five or eighty typically warns of retail FOMO at market tops. Extreme small trader bearishness below twenty or twenty-five often marks capitulation bottoms where the last weak hands have sold.
VISUALIZATION AND USER INTERFACE
The visual design incorporates multiple elements working together to facilitate decision-making and maintain situational awareness during active trading. The primary COT Index line plots in bold with adjustable line width, defaulting to two pixels for clear visibility against busy price charts. An optional glow effect, controlled by a simple toggle, adds additional visual prominence through multiple plot layers with progressively increasing transparency and width.
A twenty-one period exponential moving average overlays the index line, providing trend context for positioning changes. When the index crosses above its moving average, it signals accelerating bullish sentiment among the selected trader group regardless of whether absolute positioning is extreme. Conversely, when the index crosses below its moving average, it signals deteriorating sentiment and potentially the beginning of a reversal in positioning trends.
The EMA provides a dynamic reference line for assessing positioning momentum. When the index trades far above its EMA, positioning is not only extreme in absolute terms but also building with momentum. When the index trades far below its EMA, positioning is contracting or reversing, which may indicate weakening conviction even if absolute levels remain elevated.
The data table positioned at the top right of the chart displays eleven metrics for each trader category, transforming the indicator from a simple index calculation into an analytical dashboard providing multidimensional market intelligence. Beyond the COT Index itself, users can monitor positioning extremity, which measures how unusual current levels are compared to historical norms using statistical techniques. The extremity metric clarifies whether a reading represents the ninety-fifth or ninety-ninth percentile, with values above two standard deviations indicating genuinely exceptional positioning.
Market power quantifies each group's influence on total open interest. This metric expresses each trader category's net position as a percentage of total market open interest. A commercial entity holding forty percent of total open interest commands significantly more influence than one holding five percent, making their positioning signals more meaningful.
Momentum and rate of change metrics reveal whether positions are building or contracting, providing early warning of potential regime shifts. Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative providing even earlier insight into inflection points.
Sentiment divergence highlights disagreements between commercial and speculative positioning. This metric calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available, showing how positioning is distributed among the largest handful of traders in each category. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation across many traders.
THE ALERT SYSTEM AND MONITORING
The alert system, comprising five distinct alert conditions, enables systematic monitoring of dozens of futures markets without constant screen watching. The bullish and bearish COT signal alerts trigger when the index crosses user-defined thresholds, indicating the selected trader group has reached extreme positioning worthy of attention. These alerts fire in real-time as new weekly COT data publishes, typically Friday afternoon following the Tuesday measurement date.
Extreme positioning alerts fire at ninety and ten index levels, representing the top and bottom ten percent of the historical range, warning of particularly stretched readings that historically precede reversals with high probability. When commercials reach a COT Index reading below ten, they are expressing their most bearish stance in the entire lookback period.
The data staleness alert notifies users when COT reports have not updated for more than ten days, preventing reliance on outdated information for trading decisions. Government shutdowns or federal holidays can interrupt the normal Friday publication schedule. Using stale signals while believing them current creates dangerous false confidence.
The indicator's watermark information display positioned in the bottom right corner provides essential context at a glance. This persistent display shows the symbol and timeframe, the COT report date timestamp, days since last update, and the current signal state. A trader analyzing a potential short entry in crude oil can glance at the watermark to instantly confirm positioning context without interrupting analysis flow.
LIMITATIONS AND REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Practical application requires understanding both the indicator's considerable strengths and inherent limitations. COT data inherently lags price action by three days, as Tuesday positions are not published until Friday afternoon. This delay means the indicator cannot catch rapid intraday reversals or respond to surprise news events. Traders using the COT Index for timing entries must accept this latency and focus on swing trading and position trading timeframes where three-day lags matter less than in day trading or scalping.
The weekly publication schedule similarly makes the indicator unsuitable for short-term trading strategies requiring immediate feedback. The COT Index works best for traders operating on weekly or longer timeframes, where positioning shifts measured in weeks and months align with trading horizon.
Extreme COT readings can persist far longer than typical technical indicators suggest, testing the patience and capital reserves of traders attempting to fade them. When crude oil enters a sustained bull market driven by genuine supply disruptions, commercial hedgers may maintain bearish positioning for many months as prices grind higher. A commercial COT Index reading of fifteen indicating extreme bearishness might persist for three months while prices continue rallying before finally reversing. Traders without sufficient capital and risk tolerance to weather such drawdowns will exit prematurely, precisely when the signal is about to work (Irwin and Sanders, 2012).
Position sizing discipline becomes paramount when implementing COT-based strategies. Rather than risking large percentages of capital on individual signals, successful COT traders typically allocate modest position sizes across multiple signals, allowing some to take time to mature while others work more quickly.
The indicator also cannot overcome fundamental regime changes that alter the structural drivers of markets. If gold enters a true secular bull market driven by monetary debasement, commercial hedgers may remain persistently bearish as mining companies sell forward years of production at what they perceive as favorable prices. Their positioning indicates valuation concerns from a production cost perspective, but cannot stop prices from rising if investment demand overwhelms physical supply-demand balance.
Similarly, structural changes in market participation can alter the meaning of positioning extremes. The growth of commodity index investing in the two thousands brought massive passive long-only capital into futures markets, fundamentally changing typical positioning ranges. Traders relying on COT signals without recognizing this regime change would have generated numerous false bearish signals during the commodity supercycle from 2003 to 2008.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis derives primarily from commodity markets where the commercial hedger information advantage is most pronounced. Studies specifically examining financial futures like equity indices and bonds show weaker but still present effects. Traders should calibrate expectations accordingly, recognizing that COT analysis likely works better for crude oil, natural gas, corn, and wheat than for the S&P 500, Treasury bonds, or currency futures.
Another important limitation involves the reporting threshold structure. Not all market participants appear in COT data, only those holding positions above specified minimums. In markets dominated by a few large players, concentration metrics become critical for proper interpretation. A single large trader accounting for thirty percent of commercial positioning might skew the entire category if their individual circumstances are idiosyncratic rather than representative.
GOLD FUTURES DURING A HYPOTHETICAL MARKET CYCLE
Consider a practical example using gold futures during a hypothetical but realistic market scenario that illustrates how the COT Index indicator guides trading decisions through a complete market cycle. Suppose gold has rallied from fifteen hundred to nineteen hundred dollars per ounce over six months, driven by inflation concerns following aggressive monetary expansion, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained buying by Asian central banks for reserve diversification.
Large speculators, operating primarily trend-following strategies, have accumulated increasingly bullish positions throughout this rally. Their COT Index has climbed progressively from forty-five to eighty-five. The table display shows that large speculators now hold net long positions representing thirty-two percent of total open interest, their highest in four years. Momentum indicators show positive readings, indicating positions are still building though at a decelerating rate. Position velocity has turned negative, suggesting the pace of position building is slowing.
Meanwhile, commercial hedgers have responded to the rally by aggressively selling forward production and inventory. Their COT Index has moved inversely to price, declining from fifty-five to twenty. This bearish commercial positioning represents mining companies locking in forward sales at prices they view as attractive relative to production costs. The table shows commercials now hold net short positions representing twenty-nine percent of total open interest, their most bearish stance in five years. Concentration metrics indicate this positioning is broadly distributed across many commercial entities, suggesting the bearish stance reflects collective industry view rather than idiosyncratic positioning by a single firm.
Small traders, attracted by mainstream financial media coverage of gold's impressive rally, have recently piled into long positions. Their COT Index has jumped from forty-five to seventy-eight as retail investors chase the trend. Television financial networks feature frequent segments on gold with bullish guests. Internet forums and social media show surging retail interest. This retail enthusiasm historically marks late-stage trend development rather than early opportunity.
The COT Index indicator, configured to monitor commercial positioning from a contrarian perspective, displays a clear bearish signal given the extreme commercial short positioning. The table displays multiple confirming metrics: positioning extremity shows commercials at the ninety-sixth percentile of bearishness, market power indicates they control twenty-nine percent of open interest, and sentiment divergence registers sixty-five, indicating massive disagreement between commercial hedgers and large speculators. This divergence, the highest in three years, places the market in the historically high-risk category for reversals.
The interpretation requires nuance and consideration of context beyond just COT data. Commercials are not necessarily predicting an imminent crash. Rather, they are hedging business operations at what they collectively view as favorable price levels. However, the data reveals they have sold unusually large quantities of forward production, suggesting either exceptional production expectations for the year ahead or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Combined with extreme speculator positioning indicating a crowded long trade, and small trader enthusiasm confirming retail FOMO, the confluence suggests elevated reversal risk even if the precise timing remains uncertain.
A prudent trader analyzing this situation might take several actions based on COT Index signals. Existing long positions could be tightened with closer stop losses. Profit-taking on a portion of long exposure could lock in gains while maintaining some participation. Some traders might initiate modest short positions as portfolio hedges, sizing them appropriately for the inherent uncertainty in timing reversals. Others might simply move to the sidelines, avoiding new long entries until positioning normalizes.
The key lesson from case study analysis is that COT signals provide probabilistic edges rather than deterministic predictions. They work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over time, yet still means forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. Traders must embrace this probabilistic reality rather than seeking the impossible goal of perfect accuracy.
INTEGRATION WITH TRADING SYSTEMS
Integration with existing trading systems represents a natural and powerful use case for COT analysis, adding a positioning dimension to price-based technical approaches or fundamental analytical frameworks. Few traders rely exclusively on a single indicator or methodology. Rather, they build systems that synthesize multiple information sources, with each component addressing different aspects of market behavior.
Trend followers might use COT extremes as regime filters, modifying position sizing or avoiding new trend entries when positioning reaches levels historically associated with reversals. Consider a classic trend-following system based on moving average crossovers and momentum breakouts. Integration of COT analysis adds nuance. When large speculator positioning exceeds ninety or commercial positioning falls below ten, the regime filter recognizes elevated reversal risk. The system might reduce position sizing by fifty percent for new signals during these high-risk periods (Kaufman, 2013).
Mean reversion traders might require COT signal confluence before fading extended moves. When crude oil becomes technically overbought and large speculators show extreme long positioning above eighty-five, both signals confirm. If only technical indicators show extremes while positioning remains neutral, the potential short signal is rejected, avoiding fades of trends with underlying institutional support (Kaufman, 2013).
Discretionary traders can monitor the indicator as a continuous awareness tool, informing bias and position sizing without dictating mechanical entries and exits. A discretionary trader might notice commercial positioning shifting from neutral to progressively more bullish over several months. This trend informs growing positive bias even without triggering mechanical signals.
Multi-timeframe analysis represents another powerful integration approach. A trader might use daily charts for trade execution and timing while monitoring weekly COT positioning for strategic context. When both timeframes align, highest-probability opportunities emerge.
Portfolio construction for futures traders can incorporate COT signals as an additional selection criterion. Markets showing strong technical setups AND favorable COT positioning receive highest allocations. Markets with strong technicals but neutral or unfavorable positioning receive reduced allocations.
ADVANCED METRICS AND INTERPRETATION
The metrics table transforms simple positioning data into multidimensional market intelligence. Position extremity, calculated as the absolute deviation from the historical mean normalized by standard deviation, helps identify truly unusual readings versus routine fluctuations. A reading above two standard deviations indicates ninety-fifth percentile or higher extremity. Above three standard deviations indicates ninety-ninth percentile or higher, genuinely rare positioning that historically precedes major events with high probability.
Market power, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, reveals whose positioning matters most from a mechanical market impact perspective. Consider two scenarios in gold futures. In scenario one, commercials show a COT Index reading of fifteen while their market power metric shows they hold net shorts representing thirty-five percent of open interest. This is a high-confidence bearish signal. In scenario two, commercials also show a reading of fifteen, but market power shows only eight percent. While positioning is extreme relative to this category's normal range, their limited market share means less mechanical influence on price.
The rate of change and momentum metrics highlight whether positions are accelerating or decelerating, often providing earlier warnings than absolute levels alone. A COT Index reading of seventy-five with rapidly building momentum suggests continued movement toward extremes. Conversely, a reading of eighty-five with decelerating or negative momentum indicates the positioning trend is exhausting.
Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative. When velocity shifts from positive to negative, it indicates that while positioning may still be growing, the pace of growth is slowing. This deceleration often precedes actual reversal in positioning direction by several weeks.
Sentiment divergence calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. When commercials show extreme bearish positioning at twenty while large speculators show extreme bullish positioning at eighty, the divergence reaches sixty, representing near-maximum disagreement. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals. The mechanism is intuitive. Extreme divergence indicates the informed hedgers and momentum-following speculators have positioned opposite each other with conviction. One group will prove correct and profit while the other proves incorrect and suffers losses. The resolution of this disagreement through price movement often involves volatility.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning within a category, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation. Broad-based positioning more reliably reflects collective market intelligence and industry consensus. If mining companies globally all independently decide to hedge aggressively at similar price levels, it suggests genuine industry-wide view about price valuations rather than circumstances specific to one firm.
DATA QUALITY AND RELIABILITY
The CFTC has maintained COT reporting in various forms since the nineteen twenties, providing nearly a century of positioning data across multiple market cycles. However, data quality and reporting standards have evolved substantially over this long period. Modern electronic reporting implemented in the late nineteen nineties and early two thousands significantly improved accuracy and timeliness compared to earlier paper-based systems.
Traders should understand that COT reports capture positions as of Tuesday's close each week. Markets remain open three additional days before publication on Friday afternoon, meaning the reported data is three days stale when received. During periods of rapid market movement or major news events, this lag can be significant. The indicator addresses this limitation by including timestamp information and staleness warnings.
The three-day lag creates particular challenges during extreme volatility episodes. Flash crashes, surprise central bank interventions, geopolitical shocks, and other high-impact events can completely transform market positioning within hours. Traders must exercise judgment about whether reported positioning remains relevant given intervening events.
Reporting thresholds also mean that not all market participants appear in disaggregated COT data. Traders holding positions below specified minimums aggregate into the non-reportable or small trader category. This aggregation affects different markets differently. In highly liquid contracts like crude oil with thousands of participants, reportable traders might represent seventy to eighty percent of open interest. In thinly traded contracts with only dozens of active participants, a few large reportable positions might represent ninety-five percent of open interest.
Another data quality consideration involves trader classification into categories. The CFTC assigns traders to commercial or non-commercial categories based on reported business purpose and activities. However, this process is not perfect. Some entities engage in both commercial and speculative activities, creating ambiguity about proper classification. The transition to Disaggregated reports attempted to address some of these ambiguities by creating more granular categories.
COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
Several alternative approaches to COT analysis exist in the trading community beyond the normalization methodology employed by this indicator. Some analysts focus on absolute position changes week-over-week rather than index-based normalization. This approach calculates the change in net positioning from one week to the next. The emphasis falls on momentum in positioning changes rather than absolute levels relative to history. This method potentially identifies regime shifts earlier but sacrifices cross-market comparability (Briese, 2008).
Other practitioners employ more complex statistical transformations including percentile rankings, z-score standardization, and machine learning classification algorithms. Ruan and Zhang (2018) demonstrated that machine learning models applied to COT data could achieve modest improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to simple threshold-based approaches. However, these gains came at the cost of interpretability and implementation complexity.
The COT Index indicator intentionally employs a relatively straightforward normalization methodology for several important reasons. First, transparency enhances user understanding and trust. Traders can verify calculations manually and develop intuitive feel for what different readings mean. Second, academic research suggests that most of the predictive power in COT data comes from extreme positioning levels rather than subtle patterns requiring complex statistical methods to detect. Third, robust methods that work consistently across many markets and time periods tend to be simpler rather than more complex, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data. Fourth, the complexity costs of implementation matter for retail traders without programming teams or computational infrastructure.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF COT TRADING
Trading based on COT data requires psychological fortitude that differs from momentum-based approaches. Contrarian positioning signals inherently mean betting against prevailing market sentiment and recent price action. When commercials reach extreme bearish positioning, prices have typically been rising, sometimes for extended periods. The price chart looks bullish, momentum indicators confirm strength, moving averages align positively. The COT signal says bet against all of this. This psychological difficulty explains why COT analysis remains underutilized relative to trend-following methods.
Human psychology strongly predisposes us toward extrapolation and recency bias. When prices rally for months, our pattern-matching brains naturally expect continued rally. The recent price action dominates our perception, overwhelming rational analysis about positioning extremes and historical probabilities. The COT signal asking us to sell requires overriding these powerful psychological impulses.
The indicator design attempts to support the required psychological discipline through several features. Clear threshold markers and signal states reduce ambiguity about when signals trigger. When the commercial index crosses below twenty, the signal is explicit and unambiguous. The background shifts to red, the signal label displays bearish, and alerts fire. This explicitness helps traders act on signals rather than waiting for additional confirmation that may never arrive.
The metrics table provides analytical justification for contrarian positions, helping traders maintain conviction during inevitable periods of adverse price movement. When a trader enters short positions based on extreme commercial bearish positioning but prices continue rallying for several weeks, doubt naturally emerges. The table display provides reassurance. Commercial positioning remains extremely bearish. Divergence remains high. The positioning thesis remains intact even though price action has not yet confirmed.
Alert functionality ensures traders do not miss signals due to inattention while also not requiring constant monitoring that can lead to emotional decision-making. Setting alerts for COT extremes enables a healthier relationship with markets. When meaningful signals occur, alerts notify them. They can then calmly assess the situation and execute planned responses.
However, no indicator design can completely overcome the psychological difficulty of contrarian trading. Some traders simply cannot maintain short positions while prices rally. For these traders, COT analysis might be better employed as an exit signal for long positions rather than an entry signal for shorts.
Ultimately, successful COT trading requires developing comfort with probabilistic thinking rather than certainty-seeking. The signals work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five or sixty percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over years, yet still means forty to forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. COT analysis provides genuine edge, but edge means probability advantage, not elimination of losing trades.
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTINUOUS LEARNING
The indicator provides extensive built-in educational resources through its documentation, detailed tooltips, and transparent calculations. However, mastering COT analysis requires study beyond any single tool or resource. Several excellent resources provide valuable extensions of the concepts covered in this guide.
Books and practitioner-focused monographs offer accessible entry points. Stephen Briese published The Commitments of Traders Bible in two thousand eight, offering detailed breakdowns of how different markets and trader categories behave (Briese, 2008). Briese's work stands out for its empirical focus and market-specific insights. Jack Schwager includes discussion of COT analysis within the broader context of market behavior in his book Market Sense and Nonsense (Schwager, 2012). Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods represents perhaps the most rigorous practitioner-focused text on systematic trading approaches including COT analysis (Kaufman, 2013).
Academic journal articles provide the rigorous statistical foundation underlying COT analysis. The Journal of Futures Markets regularly publishes research on positioning data and its predictive properties. Bessembinder and Chan's earlier work on systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets provides theoretical foundation (Bessembinder, 1992). Chang's examination of speculator returns provides historical context (Chang, 1985). Irwin and Sanders provide essential skeptical perspective in their two thousand twelve article (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). Wang's two thousand three article provides one of the most empirical analyses of COT data across multiple commodity markets (Wang, 2003).
Online resources extend beyond academic and book-length treatments. The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports in multiple formats. The explanatory materials section offers detailed documentation of report construction, category definitions, and historical methodology changes. Traders serious about COT analysis should read these official CFTC documents to understand exactly what they are analyzing.
Commercial COT data services such as Barchart provide enhanced visualization and analysis tools beyond raw CFTC data. TradingView's educational materials, published scripts library, and user community provide additional resources for exploring different approaches to COT analysis.
The key to mastering COT analysis lies not in finding a single definitive source but rather in building understanding through multiple perspectives and information sources. Academic research provides rigorous empirical foundation. Practitioner-focused books offer practical implementation insights. Direct engagement with data through systematic backtesting develops intuition about how positioning dynamics manifest across different market conditions.
SYNTHESIZING KNOWLEDGE INTO PRACTICE
The COT Index indicator represents the synthesis of academic research, trading experience, and software engineering into a practical tool accessible to retail traders equipped with nothing more than a TradingView account and willingness to learn. What once required expensive data subscriptions, custom programming capabilities, statistical software, and institutional resources now appears as a straightforward indicator requiring only basic parameter selection and modest study to understand. This democratization of institutional-grade analysis tools represents a broader trend in financial markets over recent decades.
Yet technology and data access alone provide no edge without understanding and discipline. Markets remain relentlessly efficient at eliminating edges that become too widely known and mechanically exploited. The COT Index indicator succeeds only when users invest time learning the underlying concepts, understand the limitations and probability distributions involved, and integrate signals thoughtfully into trading plans rather than applying them mechanically.
The academic research demonstrates conclusively that institutional positioning contains genuine information about future price movements, particularly at extremes where commercial hedgers are maximally bearish or bullish relative to historical norms. This informational content is neither perfect nor deterministic but rather probabilistic, providing edge over many observations through identification of higher-probability configurations. Bessembinder and Chan's finding that commercial positioning explained modest but significant variance in future returns illustrates this probabilistic nature perfectly (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992). The effect is real and statistically significant, yet it explains perhaps ten to fifteen percent of return variance rather than most variance. Much of price movement remains unpredictable even with positioning intelligence.
The practical implication is that COT analysis works best as one component of a trading system rather than a standalone oracle. It provides the positioning dimension, revealing where the smart money has positioned and where the crowd has followed, but price action analysis provides the timing dimension. Fundamental analysis provides the catalyst dimension. Risk management provides the survival dimension. These components work together synergistically.
The indicator's design philosophy prioritizes transparency and education over black-box complexity, empowering traders to understand exactly what they are analyzing and why. Every calculation is documented and user-adjustable. The threshold markers, background coloring, tables, and clear signal states provide multiple reinforcing channels for conveying the same information.
This educational approach reflects a conviction that sustainable trading success comes from genuine understanding rather than mechanical system-following. Traders who understand why commercial positioning matters, how different trader categories behave, what positioning extremes signify, and where signals fit within probability distributions can adapt when market conditions change. Traders mechanically following black-box signals without comprehension abandon systems after normal losing streaks.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis comes primarily from commodity markets where commercial hedger informational advantages are most pronounced. Agricultural producers hedging crops know more about supply conditions than distant speculators. Energy companies hedging production know more about operating costs than financial traders. Metals miners hedging output know more about ore grades than index funds. Financial futures markets show weaker but still present effects.
The journey from reading this documentation to profitable trading based on COT analysis involves several stages that cannot be rushed. Initial reading and basic understanding represents the first stage. Historical study represents the second stage, reviewing past market cycles to observe how positioning extremes preceded major turning points. Paper trading or small-size real trading represents the third stage to experience the psychological challenges. Refinement based on results and personal psychology represents the fourth stage.
Markets will continue evolving. New participant categories will emerge. Regulatory structures will change. Technology will advance. Yet the fundamental dynamics driving COT analysis, that different market participants have different information, different motivations, and different forecasting abilities that manifest in their positioning, will persist as long as futures markets exist. While specific thresholds or optimal parameters may shift over time, the core logic remains sound and adaptable.
The trader equipped with this indicator, understanding of the theory and evidence behind COT analysis, realistic expectations about probability rather than certainty, discipline to maintain positions through adverse volatility, and patience to allow signals time to develop possesses genuine edge in markets. The edge is not enormous, markets cannot allow large persistent inefficiencies without arbitraging them away, but it is real, measurable, and exploitable by those willing to invest in learning and disciplined application.
REFERENCES
Bessembinder, H. (1992) Systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets, Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), pp. 637-667.
Bessembinder, H. and Chan, K. (1992) The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(2-3), pp. 257-284.
Briese, S. (2008) The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Chang, E.C. (1985) Returns to speculators and the theory of normal backwardation, Journal of Finance, 40(1), pp. 193-208.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2009) Explanatory Notes: Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2020) Commitments of Traders: About the Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Irwin, S.H. and Sanders, D.R. (2012) Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 256-269.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013) Trading Systems and Methods. 5th edn. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Ruan, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2018) Forecasting commodity futures prices using machine learning: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market, Applied Economics Letters, 25(12), pp. 845-849.
Sanders, D.R., Boris, K. and Manfredo, M. (2004) Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, Energy Economics, 26(3), pp. 425-445.
Schwager, J.D. (2012) Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work and How They Don't. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Tharp, V.K. (2008) Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Wang, C. (2003) The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders, Journal of Futures Markets, 23(1), pp. 1-31.
Williams, L.R. and Noseworthy, M. (2009) The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
FURTHER READING
For traders seeking to deepen their understanding of COT analysis and futures market positioning beyond this documentation, the following resources provide valuable extensions:
Academic Journal Articles:
Fishe, R.P.H. and Smith, A. (2012) Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?, Journal of Commodity Markets, 1(1), pp. 1-16.
Haigh, M.S., Hranaiova, J. and Overdahl, J.A. (2007) Hedge funds, volatility, and liquidity provision in energy futures markets, Journal of Alternative Investments, 9(4), pp. 10-38.
Kocagil, A.E. (1997) Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), pp. 115-125.
Sanders, D.R. and Irwin, S.H. (2011) The impact of index funds in commodity futures markets: A systems approach, Journal of Alternative Investments, 14(1), pp. 40-49.
Books and Practitioner Resources:
Murphy, J.J. (1999) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Pring, M.J. (2002) Technical Analysis Explained: The Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points. 4th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Federal Reserve and Research Institution Publications:
Federal Reserve Banks regularly publish working papers examining commodity markets, futures positioning, and price discovery mechanisms. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City maintain active research programs in this area.
Online Resources:
The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports, explanatory materials, and regulatory documentation.
Barchart offers enhanced COT data visualization and screening tools.
TradingView's community library contains numerous published scripts and educational materials exploring different approaches to positioning analysis.
DayFlow VWAP Relay Forex Majors StrategySummary in one paragraph
DayFlow VWAP Relay is a day-trading strategy for major FX pairs on intraday timeframes, demonstrated on EURUSD 15 minutes. It waits for alignment between a daily anchored VWAP regime check, residual percentiles, and lower-timeframe micro flow before suggesting trades. The originality is the fusion of daily VWAP residual percentiles with a live micro-flow score from 1 minute data to switch between fade and breakout behavior inside the same session. Add it to a clean chart and use the markers and alerts.
Scope and intent
• Markets: Major FX pairs such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD
• Timeframes: One minute to one hour
• Default demo in this publication: EURUSD on 15 minutes
• Purpose: Reduce false starts by acting only when context, location and micro flow agree
• Limits: This is a strategy. Orders are simulated on standard candles only
Originality and usefulness
• Core novelty: Residual percentiles to daily anchored VWAP decide “balanced versus expanding day”. A separate 1 minute micro-flow score confirms direction, so the same model fades extremes in balance and rides range breaks in expansion
• Failure modes addressed: Chop fakeouts and unconfirmed breakouts are filtered by the expansion gate and micro-flow threshold
• Testability: Every input is exposed. Bands, background regime color, and markers show why a suggestion appears
• Portable yardstick: Stops and targets are ATR multiples converted to ticks, which transfer across symbols
• Open source status: No reused third-party code that requires attribution
Method overview in plain language
The day is anchored with a VWAP that updates from the daily session start. Price minus VWAP is the residual. Percentiles of that residual measured over a rolling window define location extremes for the current day. A regime score compares residual volatility to price volatility. When expansion is low, the day is treated as balanced and the model fades residual extremes if 1 minute micro flow points back to VWAP. When expansion is high, the model trades breakouts outside the VWAP bands if slope and micro flow agree with the move.
Base measures
• Range basis: True Range smoothed by ATR for stops and targets, length 14
• Return basis: Not required for signals; residuals are absolute price distance to VWAP
Components
• Daily Anchor VWAP Bands. VWAP with standard-deviation bands. Slope sign is used for trend confirmation on breakouts
• Residual Percentiles. Rolling percentiles of close minus VWAP over Signal length. Identify location extremes inside the day
• Expansion Ratio. Standard deviation of residuals divided by standard deviation of price over Signal length. Classifies balanced versus expanding day
• Micro Flow. Net up minus down closes from 1 minute data across a short span, normalized to −1..+1. Confirms direction and avoids fades against pressure
• Session Window optional. Restricts trading to your configured hours to avoid thin periods
• Cooldown optional. Bars to wait after a position closes to prevent immediate re-entry
Fusion rule
Gating rather than weighting. First choose regime by Expansion Ratio versus the Expansion gate. Inside each regime all listed conditions must be true: location test plus micro-flow threshold plus session window plus cooldown. Breakouts also require VWAP slope alignment.
Signal rule
• Long suggestion on balanced day: residual at or below the lower percentile and micro flow positive above the gate while inside session and cooldown is satisfied
• Short suggestion on balanced day: residual at or above the upper percentile and micro flow negative below the gate while inside session and cooldown is satisfied
• Long suggestion on expanding day: close above the upper VWAP band, VWAP slope positive, micro flow positive, session and cooldown satisfied
• Short suggestion on expanding day: close below the lower VWAP band, VWAP slope negative, micro flow negative, session and cooldown satisfied
• Positions flip on opposite suggestions or exit by brackets
What you will see on the chart
• Markers on suggestion bars: L for long, S for short
• Exit occurs on reverse signal or when a bracket order is filled
• Reference lines: daily anchored VWAP with upper and lower bands
• Optional background: teal for balanced day, orange for expanding day
Inputs with guidance
Setup
• Signal length. Residual and regime window. Typical 40 to 100. Higher smooths, lower reacts faster
Micro Flow
• Micro TF. Lower timeframe used for micro flow, default 1 minute
• Micro span bars. Count of lower-TF bars. Typical 5 to 20
• Micro flow gate 0..1. Minimum absolute flow. Raising it demands stronger confirmation and reduces trade count
VWAP Bands
• VWAP stdev multiplier. Band width. Typical 0.8 to 1.6. Wider bands reduce breakout frequency and increase fade distance
• Expansion gate 0..3. Threshold to switch from fades to breakouts. Raising it favors fades, lowering it favors breakouts
Sessions
• Use session filter. Enable to trade only inside your window
• Trade window UTC. Default 07:00 to 17:00
Risk
• ATR length. Stop and target basis. Typical 10 to 21
• Stop ATR x. Initial stop distance in ATR multiples
• Target ATR x. Profit target distance in ATR multiples
• Cooldown bars after close. Wait bars before a new entry
• Side. Both, long only, or short only
View
• Show VWAP and bands
• Color bars by residual regime
Properties visible in this publication
• Initial capital 10000
• Base currency Default
• request.security uses lookahead off everywhere
• Strategy: Percent of equity with value 3. Pyramiding 0. Commission cash per order 0.0001 USD. Slippage 3 ticks. Process orders on close ON. Bar magnifier ON. Recalculate after order is filled OFF. Calc on every tick OFF. Using standard OHLC fills ON.
Realism and responsible publication
No performance claims. Past results never guarantee future outcomes. Fills and slippage vary by venue. Shapes can move while a bar forms and settle on close. Strategies must run on standard candles for signals and orders.
Honest limitations and failure modes
High impact news, session opens, and thin liquidity can invalidate assumptions. Very quiet days can reduce contrast between residuals and price volatility. Session windows use the chart exchange time. If both stop and target are touched within a single bar, TradingView’s standard OHLC price-movement model decides the outcome.
Expect different behavior on illiquid pairs or during holidays. The model is sensitive to session definitions and feed time. Past results never guarantee future outcomes.
Legal
Education and research only. Not investment advice. You are responsible for your decisions. Test on historical data and in simulation before any live use. Use realistic costs.
Momentum Flow Build w/ FVG v2Good day.
The Momentum Flow Build w/ FVG v2 indicator
shows the previous session levels of Asia and London,
and the 5 min NY open levels (for 15 min go to 15 min chart).
The indicator also shows the FVGs.
The idea is that if price reaches a key level, we then
watch the level for whether price respects FVGs with a
retracement and engulfing candle at the FVG, or whether
price inverts the FVG (IFVG).
Cool. Be encouraged. Peace
Dual ORB (EU/US) + VWAP + Filters (Retest/EMA/ATR/RVOL)Release Notes — Dual ORB (EU & US) + Color VWAP
Summary
This script plots two configurable Opening Range Breakouts (ORB)—one for the European open and one for the US open—along with a color-adaptive VWAP (green above price, red below). It’s designed for M5/M15 intraday trading on indices (e.g., US100) and metals (e.g., XAUUSD), with clean visuals, optional history retention, and simple breakout cues.
New & Key Features
Dual ORB Sessions
EU ORB (default 07:00) and US ORB (default 14:00).
Each session’s start time and duration are configurable (15/30/45/60 min).
Automatic OR box that tracks the session high/low and freezes at the end of the window.
Configurable Time Zone
Choose a specific UTC offset or an IANA time zone (e.g., Europe/Paris, America/New_York) for precise session timing.
“Exchange” option mirrors the chart’s exchange time when available.
Targets (1× Range by default)
First upside/downside target plotted as a step line once the OR closes (based on a % of the OR width).
Separate % settings per session (EU/US).
Breakout Signals
Optional ▲ / ▼ markers when price crosses ORH/ORL after the OR window closes.
Adjustable signal size and colors.
Color-Adaptive VWAP
VWAP plotted for the whole session; green when price ≥ VWAP, red when price < VWAP.
Single slider for VWAP line thickness and a toggle to show/hide.
Clean Visuals & History Control
Option to preserve historical boxes/lines/labels, or auto-clean previous sessions when a new OR starts.
Per-session colors for the OR lines, fills, labels.
Configuration
General
Show History: Keep OR drawings from prior sessions or clear them automatically.
Time Zone: Pick Exchange or a specific UTC/IANA zone.
ORB Europe / ORB US
Start Time (HH:MM)
Duration: 15 / 30 / 45 / 60 minutes.
Target %: Distance for the first target as a % of the OR range.
Colors: Line and fill per session.
Signals
Enable Breakout Signals
Up/Down Colors
Text Size: Tiny → Huge.
VWAP
Show/Hide
Line Width
Visual Elements
OR Box: Semi-transparent fill during the window; locks at end.
OR Levels: ORH / ORL solid lines; ORM dashed.
Target Lines: Step lines above/below after OR closes.
Signal Labels: ▲ at ORL (bull break), ▼ at ORH (bear break).
VWAP Line: Turns green/red with price relation.
Alerts (baseline)
Signal labels visually indicate ORH/ORL breaks. (You can add alertconditions to match these crossings if you want audible/Push alerts.)
Performance & Compatibility
Pine v6.
Intraday only (< 1D). The script aborts on daily or higher timeframes to avoid misleading OR timing.
Efficient drawing & clean-up to reduce line/label count.
Known Limitations
The script relies on bar timestamps; exact alignment depends on chart data and your chosen time zone
If your broker/exchange applies session gaps or custom trading hours, verify that your time zone and session align with the instrument.
Suggested Workflow
Pick your time zone.
Set EU/US start times and durations to match your plan (e.g., EU 07:00 30m, US 14:00 30m).
Choose whether to keep history.
Toggle signals and VWAP as desired.
Use ORH/ORL and the first target as decision levels; combine with your filter (trend MA, RSI, market structure, etc.).
Changelog (high-level)
v1.
Added dual configurable ORB (EU & US).
Added per-session targets (percent of OR width).
Added color-adaptive VWAP + width control.
Added breakout signals with customizable size and colors.
Added time zone selector (Exchange, UTC, IANA).
Added history on/off option and improved object lifecycle (clean-up vs persist).
Ported to Pine v6 and hardened against repainting artifacts at session edges.
Hidden Impulse═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
HIDDEN IMPULSE - Multi-Timeframe Momentum Detection System
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OVERVIEW
Hidden Impulse is an advanced momentum oscillator that combines the Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) and Force Index into a comprehensive multi-timeframe trading system. Unlike standard implementations of these indicators, this script introduces three distinct trading setups with specific entry conditions, multi-timeframe confirmation, and trend filtering.
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ORIGINALITY & KEY FEATURES
This indicator is original in the following ways:
1. DUAL-TIMEFRAME STC ANALYSIS
Standard STC implementations work on a single timeframe. This script
simultaneously analyzes STC on both your trading timeframe and a higher
timeframe, providing trend context and filtering out low-probability signals.
2. FORCE INDEX INTEGRATION
The script combines STC with Force Index (volume-weighted price momentum)
to confirm the strength behind price moves. This combination helps identify
when momentum shifts are backed by genuine buying/selling pressure.
3. THREE DISTINCT TRADING SETUPS
Rather than generic overbought/oversold signals, the indicator provides
three specific, rule-based setups:
- Setup A: Classic trend-following entries with multi-timeframe confirmation
- Setup B: Divergence-based reversal entries (highest probability)
- Setup C: Mean-reversion bounce trades at extreme levels
4. INTELLIGENT FILTERING
All signals are filtered through:
- 50 EMA trend direction (prevents counter-trend trades)
- Higher timeframe STC alignment (ensures macro trend agreement)
- Force Index confirmation (validates volume support)
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HOW IT WORKS - TECHNICAL EXPLANATION
SCHAFF TREND CYCLE (STC) CALCULATION:
The STC is a cyclical oscillator that combines MACD concepts with stochastic
smoothing to create earlier and smoother trend signals.
Step 1: Calculate MACD
- Fast MA = EMA(close, Length1) — default 23
- Slow MA = EMA(close, Length2) — default 50
- MACD Line = Fast MA - Slow MA
Step 2: First Stochastic Smoothing
- Apply stochastic calculation to MACD
- Stoch1 = 100 × (MACD - Lowest(MACD, Smoothing)) / (Highest(MACD, Smoothing) - Lowest(MACD, Smoothing))
- Smooth result with EMA(Stoch1, Smoothing) — default 10
Step 3: Second Stochastic Smoothing
- Apply stochastic calculation again to the smoothed stochastic
- This creates the final STC value between 0-100
The dual stochastic smoothing makes STC more responsive than MACD while
being smoother than traditional stochastics.
FORCE INDEX CALCULATION:
Force Index measures the power behind price movements by incorporating volume:
Force Raw = (Close - Close ) × Volume
Force Index = EMA(Force Raw, Period) — default 13
Interpretation:
- Positive Force Index = Buying pressure (bulls in control)
- Negative Force Index = Selling pressure (bears in control)
- Force Index crossing zero = Momentum shift
- Divergences with price = Weakening momentum (reversal signal)
TREND FILTER:
A 50-period EMA serves as the trend filter:
- Price above EMA50 = Uptrend → Only LONG signals allowed
- Price below EMA50 = Downtrend → Only SHORT signals allowed
This prevents counter-trend trading which accounts for most losing trades.
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THE THREE TRADING SETUPS - DETAILED
SETUP A: CLASSIC MOMENTUM ENTRY
Concept: Enter when STC exits oversold/overbought zones with trend confirmation
LONG CONDITIONS:
1. Higher timeframe STC > 25 (macro trend is up)
2. Primary timeframe STC crosses above 25 (momentum turning up)
3. Force Index crosses above 0 OR already positive (volume confirms)
4. Price above 50 EMA (local trend is up)
SHORT CONDITIONS:
1. Higher timeframe STC < 75 (macro trend is down)
2. Primary timeframe STC crosses below 75 (momentum turning down)
3. Force Index crosses below 0 OR already negative (volume confirms)
4. Price below 50 EMA (local trend is down)
Best for: Trending markets, continuation trades
Win rate: Moderate (60-65%)
Risk/Reward: 1:2 to 1:3
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SETUP B: DIVERGENCE REVERSAL (HIGHEST PROBABILITY)
Concept: Identify exhaustion points where price makes new extremes but
momentum (Force Index) fails to confirm
BULLISH DIVERGENCE:
1. Price makes a lower low (LL) over 10 bars
2. Force Index makes a higher low (HL) — refuses to follow price down
3. STC is below 25 (oversold condition)
Trigger: STC starts rising AND Force Index crosses above zero
BEARISH DIVERGENCE:
1. Price makes a higher high (HH) over 10 bars
2. Force Index makes a lower high (LH) — refuses to follow price up
3. STC is above 75 (overbought condition)
Trigger: STC starts falling AND Force Index crosses below zero
Why this works: Divergences signal that the current trend is losing steam.
When volume (Force Index) doesn't confirm new price extremes, a reversal
is likely.
Best for: Reversal trading, range-bound markets
Win rate: High (70-75%)
Risk/Reward: 1:3 to 1:5
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SETUP C: QUICK BOUNCE AT EXTREMES
Concept: Catch rapid mean-reversion moves when price touches EMA50 in
extreme STC zones
LONG CONDITIONS:
1. Price touches 50 EMA from above (pullback in uptrend)
2. STC < 15 (extreme oversold)
3. Force Index > 0 (buyers stepping in)
SHORT CONDITIONS:
1. Price touches 50 EMA from below (pullback in downtrend)
2. STC > 85 (extreme overbought)
3. Force Index < 0 (sellers stepping in)
Best for: Scalping, quick mean-reversion trades
Win rate: Moderate (55-60%)
Risk/Reward: 1:1 to 1:2
Note: Use tighter stops and quick profit-taking
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HOW TO USE THE INDICATOR
STEP 1: CONFIGURE TIMEFRAMES
Primary Timeframe (STC - Primary Timeframe):
- Leave empty to use your current chart timeframe
- This is where you'll take trades
Higher Timeframe (STC - Higher Timeframe):
- Default: 30 minutes
- Recommended ratios:
* 5min chart → 30min higher TF
* 15min chart → 1H higher TF
* 1H chart → 4H higher TF
* Daily chart → Weekly higher TF
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STEP 2: ADJUST STC PARAMETERS FOR YOUR MARKET
Default (23/50/10) works well for stocks and forex, but adjust for:
CRYPTO (volatile):
- Length 1: 15
- Length 2: 35
- Smoothing: 8
(Faster response for rapid price movements)
STOCKS (standard):
- Length 1: 23
- Length 2: 50
- Smoothing: 10
(Balanced settings)
FOREX MAJORS (slower):
- Length 1: 30
- Length 2: 60
- Smoothing: 12
(Filters out noise in 24/7 markets)
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STEP 3: ENABLE YOUR PREFERRED SETUPS
Toggle setups based on your trading style:
Conservative Trader:
✓ Setup B (Divergence) — highest win rate
✗ Setup A (Classic) — only in strong trends
✗ Setup C (Bounce) — too aggressive
Trend Trader:
✓ Setup A (Classic) — primary signals
✓ Setup B (Divergence) — for entries on pullbacks
✗ Setup C (Bounce) — not suitable for trending
Scalper:
✓ Setup C (Bounce) — quick in-and-out
✓ Setup B (Divergence) — high probability scalps
✗ Setup A (Classic) — too slow
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STEP 4: READ THE SIGNALS
ON THE CHART:
Labels appear when conditions are met:
Green labels:
- "LONG A" — Setup A long entry
- "LONG B DIV" — Setup B divergence long (best signal)
- "LONG C" — Setup C bounce long
Red labels:
- "SHORT A" — Setup A short entry
- "SHORT B DIV" — Setup B divergence short (best signal)
- "SHORT C" — Setup C bounce short
IN THE INDICATOR PANEL (bottom):
- Blue line = Primary timeframe STC
- Orange dots = Higher timeframe STC (optional)
- Green/Red bars = Force Index histogram
- Dashed lines at 25/75 = Entry/Exit zones
- Background shading = Oversold (green) / Overbought (red)
INFO TABLE (top-right corner):
Shows real-time status:
- STC values for both timeframes
- Force Index direction
- Price position vs EMA
- Current trend direction
- Active signal type
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TRADING STRATEGY & RISK MANAGEMENT
ENTRY RULES:
Priority ranking (best to worst):
1st: Setup B (Divergence) — wait for these
2nd: Setup A (Classic) — in confirmed trends only
3rd: Setup C (Bounce) — scalping only
Confirmation checklist before entry:
☑ Signal label appears on chart
☑ TREND in info table matches signal direction
☑ Higher timeframe STC aligned (check orange dots or table)
☑ Force Index confirming (check histogram color)
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STOP LOSS PLACEMENT:
Setup A (Classic):
- LONG: Below recent swing low
- SHORT: Above recent swing high
- Typical: 1-2 ATR distance
Setup B (Divergence):
- LONG: Below the divergence low
- SHORT: Above the divergence high
- Typical: 0.5-1.5 ATR distance
Setup C (Bounce):
- LONG: 5-10 pips below EMA50
- SHORT: 5-10 pips above EMA50
- Typical: 0.3-0.8 ATR distance
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TAKE PROFIT TARGETS:
Conservative approach:
- Exit when STC reaches opposite level
- LONG: Exit when STC > 75
- SHORT: Exit when STC < 25
Aggressive approach:
- Hold until opposite signal appears
- Trail stop as STC moves in your favor
Partial profits:
- Take 50% at 1:2 risk/reward
- Let remaining 50% run to target
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WHAT TO AVOID:
❌ Trading Setup A in sideways/choppy markets
→ Wait for clear trend or use Setup B only
❌ Ignoring higher timeframe STC
→ Always check orange dots align with your direction
❌ Taking signals against the major trend
→ If weekly trend is down, be cautious with longs
❌ Overtrading Setup C
→ Maximum 2-3 bounce trades per session
❌ Trading during low volume periods
→ Force Index becomes unreliable
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ALERTS CONFIGURATION
The indicator includes 8 alert types:
Individual setup alerts:
- "Setup A - LONG" / "Setup A - SHORT"
- "Setup B - DIV LONG" / "Setup B - DIV SHORT" ⭐ recommended
- "Setup C - BOUNCE LONG" / "Setup C - BOUNCE SHORT"
Combined alerts:
- "ANY LONG" — fires on any long signal
- "ANY SHORT" — fires on any short signal
Recommended alert setup:
- Create "Setup B - DIV LONG" and "Setup B - DIV SHORT" alerts
- These are the highest probability signals
- Set "Once Per Bar Close" to avoid false alerts
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VISUALIZATION SETTINGS
Show Labels on Chart:
Toggle on/off the signal labels (green/red)
Disable for cleaner chart once you're familiar with the indicator
Show Higher TF STC:
Toggle the orange dots showing higher timeframe STC
Useful for visual confirmation of multi-timeframe alignment
Info Panel:
Cannot be disabled — always shows current status
Positioned top-right to avoid chart interference
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EXAMPLE TRADE WALKTHROUGH
SETUP B DIVERGENCE LONG EXAMPLE:
1. Market Context:
- Price in downtrend, below 50 EMA
- Multiple lower lows forming
- STC below 25 (oversold)
2. Divergence Formation:
- Price makes new low at $45.20
- Force Index refuses to make new low (higher low forms)
- This indicates selling pressure weakening
3. Signal Trigger:
- STC starts turning up
- Force Index crosses above zero
- Label appears: "LONG B DIV"
4. Trade Execution:
- Entry: $45.50 (current price at signal)
- Stop Loss: $44.80 (below divergence low)
- Target 1: $47.90 (STC reaches 75) — risk/reward 1:3.4
- Target 2: Opposite signal or trail stop
5. Trade Management:
- Price rallies to $47.20
- STC reaches 68 (approaching target zone)
- Take 50% profit, move stop to breakeven
- Exit remaining at $48.10 when STC crosses 75
Result: 3.7R gain
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ADVANCED TIPS
1. MULTI-TIMEFRAME CONFLUENCE
For highest probability trades, wait for:
- Primary TF signal
- Higher TF STC aligned (>25 for longs, <75 for shorts)
- Even higher TF trend in same direction (manual check)
2. VOLUME CONFIRMATION
Watch the Force Index histogram:
- Increasing bar size = Strengthening momentum
- Decreasing bar size = Weakening momentum
- Use this to gauge signal strength
3. AVOID THESE MARKET CONDITIONS
- Major news events (Force Index becomes erratic)
- Market open first 30 minutes (volatility spikes)
- Low liquidity instruments (Force Index unreliable)
- Extreme trending days (wait for pullbacks)
4. COMBINE WITH SUPPORT/RESISTANCE
Best signals occur near:
- Key horizontal levels
- Fibonacci retracements
- Previous day's high/low
- Psychological round numbers
5. SESSION AWARENESS
- Asia session: Use lower timeframes, Setup C works well
- London session: Setup A and B both effective
- New York session: All setups work, highest volume
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INDICATOR WINDOWS LAYOUT
MAIN CHART:
- Price action
- 50 EMA (green/red)
- Signal labels
- Info panel
INDICATOR WINDOW:
- STC oscillator (blue line, 0-100 scale)
- Higher TF STC (orange dots, optional)
- Force Index histogram (green/red bars)
- Reference levels (25, 50, 75)
- Background zones (green oversold, red overbought)
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PERFORMANCE OPTIMIZATION
For best results:
Backtesting:
- Test on your specific instrument and timeframe
- Adjust STC parameters if win rate < 55%
- Record which setup works best for your market
Position Sizing:
- Risk 1-2% per trade
- Setup B can use 2% risk (higher win rate)
- Setup C should use 1% risk (lower win rate)
Trade Frequency:
- Setup B: 2-5 signals per week (be patient)
- Setup A: 5-10 signals per week
- Setup C: 10+ signals per week (scalping)
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CREDITS & REFERENCES
This indicator builds upon established technical analysis concepts:
Schaff Trend Cycle:
- Developed by Doug Schaff (1996)
- Original concept published in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities
- Implementation based on standard STC formula
Force Index:
- Developed by Dr. Alexander Elder
- Described in "Trading for a Living" (1993)
- Classic volume-momentum indicator
The multi-timeframe integration, three-setup system, and specific
entry conditions are original contributions of this indicator.
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DISCLAIMER
This indicator is a technical analysis tool and does not guarantee profits.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always:
- Use proper risk management
- Test on demo account first
- Combine with fundamental analysis
- Never risk more than you can afford to lose
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SUPPORT & QUESTIONS
If you find this indicator helpful, please:
- Leave a like and comment
- Share your feedback and results
- Report any bugs or issues
For questions about usage or optimization for specific markets,
feel free to comment below.
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Smart Money Dynamics Blocks — Pearson MatrixSmart Money Dynamics Blocks — Pearson Matrix
A structural fusion of Prime Number Theory, Pearson Correlation, and Cumulative Delta Geometry.
1. Mathematical Foundation
This indicator is built on the intersection of Prime Number Theory and the Pearson correlation coefficient, creating a structural framework that quantifies how price and time evolve together.
Prime numbers — unique, indivisible, and irregular — are used here as nonlinear time intervals. Each prime length (2, 3, 5, 7, 11…97) represents a regression horizon where correlation is measured between price and time. The result is a multi-scale correlation lattice — a geometric matrix that captures hidden directional strength and temporal bias beyond traditional moving averages.
2. The Pearson Matrix Logic
For every prime interval p, the indicator calculates the linear correlation:
r_p = corr(price, bar_index, p)
Each r_p reflects how closely price and time move together across a prime-defined window. All r_p values are then averaged to create avgR, a single adaptive coefficient summarizing overall structural coherence.
- When avgR > 0.8 → strong positive correlation (labeled R+).
- When avgR < -0.8 → strong negative correlation (labeled R−).
This approach gives a mathematically grounded definition of trend — one that isn’t based on pattern recognition, but on measurable correlation strength.
3. Sequential Prime Slope and Median Pivot
Using the ordered sequence of 25 prime intervals, the model computes sequential slopes between adjacent primes. These slopes represent the rate of change of structure between two prime scales. A robust median aggregator smooths the slopes, producing a clean, stable directional vector.
The system anchors this slope to the 41-bar pivot — the median of the first 25 primes — serving as the geometric midpoint of the prime lattice. The resulting yellow line on the chart is not an ordinary regression line; it’s a dynamic prime-slope function, adapting continuously with correlation feedback.
4. Regression-Style Parallel Bands
Around this prime-slope line, the indicator constructs parallel bands using standard deviation envelopes — conceptually similar to a regression channel but recalculated through the prime–Pearson matrix.
These bands adjust dynamically to:
- Volatility, via standard deviation of residuals.
- Correlation strength, via avgR sign weighting.
Together, they visualize statistical deviation geometry, making it easier to observe symmetry, expansion, and contraction phases of price structure.
5. Volume and Cumulative Delta Peaks
Below the geometric layer, the indicator incorporates a custom lower-timeframe volume feed — by default using 15-second data (custom_tf_input_volume = “15S”). This allows precise delta computation between up-volume and down-volume even on higher timeframe charts.
From this feed, the indicator accumulates delta over a configurable period (default: 100 bars). When cumulative delta reaches a local maximum or minimum, peak and trough markers appear, showing the precise bar where buying or selling pressure statistically peaked.
This combination of geometry and order flow reveals the intersection of market structure and energy — where liquidity pressure expresses itself through mathematical form.
6. Chart Interpretation
The primary chart view represents the live execution of the indicator. It displays the relationship between structural correlation and volume behavior in real time.
Orange “R+” and blue “R−” labels indicate regions of strong positive or negative Pearson correlation across the prime matrix. The yellow median prime-slope line serves as the structural backbone of the indicator, while green and red parallel bands act as dynamic regression boundaries derived from the underlying correlation strength. Peaks and troughs in cumulative delta — displayed as numerical annotations — mark statistically significant shifts in buying and selling pressure.
The secondary visualization (Prime Regression Concept) expands on this by illustrating how regression behavior evolves across prime intervals. Each colored regression fan corresponds to a prime number window (2, 3, 5, 7, …, 97), demonstrating how multiple regression lines would appear if drawn independently. The indicator integrates these into one unified geometric model — eliminating the need to plot tens of regression lines manually. It’s a conceptual tool to help visualize the internal logic: the synthesis of many small-scale regressions into a single coherent structure.
7. Interpretive Insight
This model is not a prediction tool; it’s an instrument of mathematical observation. By translating price dynamics into a prime-structured correlation space, it reveals how coherence unfolds through time — not as a forecast, but as a measurable evolution of structure.
It unifies three analytical domains:
- Prime distribution — defines a nonlinear temporal architecture.
- Pearson correlation — quantifies statistical cohesion.
- Cumulative delta — expresses behavioral imbalance in order flow.
The synthesis creates a geometric analysis of liquidity and time — where structure meets energy, and where the invisible rhythm of market flow becomes measurable.
8. Contribution & Feedback
Share your observations in the comments:
- The time gap and alternation between R+ and R− clusters.
- How different timeframes change delta sensitivity or reveal compression/expansion.
- Prime intervals/clusters that tend to sit near turning points or liquidity shifts.
- How avgR behaves across assets or regimes (trending, ranging, high-vol).
- Notable interactions with the parallel bands (touches, breaks, mean-revert).
Your field notes help others read the model more effectively and compare contexts.
Summary
- Primes define the structure.
- Pearson quantifies coherence.
- Slope median stabilizes geometry.
- Regression bands visualize deviation.
- Cumulative delta locates imbalance.
Together, they construct a framework where mathematics meets market behavior.
Buying Climax + Spring [Darwinian]Buying Climax + Spring Indicator
Overview
Advanced Wyckoff-based indicator that identifies potential market reversals through **Buying Climax** patterns (exhaustion tops) and **Spring** patterns (accumulation bottoms). Designed for traders seeking high-probability reversal signals with strict uptrend validation.
---
Method
🔴 Buying Climax Detection
Identifies exhaustion patterns at market tops using multi-condition analysis:
**Base Buying Climax (Red Triangle)**
- Volume spike > 1.8x average
- Range expansion > 1.8x average
- New 20-bar high reached
- Close finishes in lower 30% of bar range
- **Strict uptrend validation**: Price must be 30%+ above 20-day low
**Enhanced Buying Climax (Maroon Triangle)**
- All Base BC conditions PLUS:
- Gap up from previous high
- Intraday fade (close < open and below midpoint)
- **Higher confidence reversal signal**
🟢 Wyckoff Spring Detection
Identifies accumulation patterns at support levels:
- Price breaks below recent pivot low (false breakdown)
- Close recovers above pivot level (rejection)
- Occurs at trading range low
- Optional volume confirmation (1.5x+ average)
- Limited to 3 attempts per pivot (prevents over-signaling)
✅ Uptrend Validation Filter
**Four-condition composite filter** prevents false signals in sideways/downtrending markets:
1. Close-to-close rise ≥ 5% over lookback period
2. Price structure: Close > MA(10) > MA(20)
3. Swing low significantly below current price
4. **Primary requirement**: Current high ≥ 30% above 20-day low
---
Input Tuning Guide
Buying Climax Settings:
**Volume & Range Thresholds**
- `Volume Spike Threshold`: Default 1.8x
- Lower (1.5x) = More signals, more noise
- Higher (2.0-2.5x) = Fewer but stronger exhaustion signals
- `Range Spike Threshold`: Default 1.8x
- Adjust parallel to volume threshold
- Higher values = extreme volatility required
**Pattern Detection**
- `New High Lookback`: Default 20 bars
- Shorter (10-15) = Recent highs only
- Longer (30-50) = Major breakout detection
- `Close Off High Fraction`: Default 0.3 (30%)
- Lower (0.2) = Stricter rejection requirement
- Higher (0.4-0.5) = Allow weaker intraday fades
- `Gap Threshold`: Default 0.002 (0.2%)
- Increase (0.005-0.01) for stocks with wider spreads
- Decrease (0.001) for tight-spread instruments
- `Confirmation Window`: Default 5 bars
- Shorter (3) = Faster confirmation, more false positives
- Longer (7-10) = Wait for deeper automatic reaction
Uptrend Filter Settings
**Critical for Signal Quality**
- `Minimum Rise from 20-day Low`: Default 0.30 (30%)
- **Most important parameter**
- Lower (0.20-0.25) = More signals in moderate uptrends
- Higher (0.40-0.50) = Only extreme parabolic moves
- `Pole Lookback`: Default 30 bars
- Shorter (20) = Recent momentum focus
- Longer (40-50) = Longer-term trend validation
- `Minimum Rise % for Pole`: Default 0.05 (5%)
- Adjust based on market volatility
- Higher in strong bull markets (7-10%)
Wyckoff Spring Settings
- `Pivot Length`: Default 6 bars
- Shorter (3-4) = More frequent pivots, more signals
- Longer (8-10) = Major support/resistance only
- `Volume Threshold`: Default 1.5x
- Higher (1.8-2.0x) = Stronger conviction required
- Disable volume requirement for low-volume stocks
- `Trading Range Period`: Default 20 bars
- Match to consolidation timeframe being traded
- Shorter (10-15) for intraday patterns
- Longer (30-40) for weekly consolidations
---
Recommended Workflow
1. **Start with defaults** on daily timeframe
2. **Adjust uptrend filter** first (30% rise parameter)
- Too many signals? Increase to 35-40%
- Too few? Decrease to 25%
3. **Fine-tune volume/range multipliers** based on instrument volatility
4. **Enable alerts** for real-time monitoring:
- Base BC → Initial warning
- Enhanced BC → High-priority reversal
- Confirmed BC (AR) → Strong follow-through
- Spring → Accumulation opportunity
---
Alert System
- **Base Buying Climax**: Standard exhaustion pattern detected
- **Enhanced BC (Gap+Fade)**: Higher confidence reversal setup
- **Confirmed BC (AR)**: Automatic reaction validated (price drops below BC midline)
- **Wyckoff Spring**: Accumulation pattern at support
---
Best Practices
- Combine with support/resistance analysis
- Watch for BC clusters (multiple timeframes)
- Spring patterns work best after Buying Climax distribution
- Backtest parameters on your specific instruments
- Higher timeframes (daily/weekly) = higher reliability
---
Technical Notes
- Built with Pine Script v6
- No repainting (signals finalize on bar close)
- Minimal CPU usage (optimized calculations)
- Works on all timeframes and instruments
- Overlay indicator (displays on price chart)
---
*Indicator follows classical Wyckoff methodology with modern volatility filters*
Buy-or-Sell-WiPIndicator Features:
> Simple red/green histogram to indicate go long/buy or go short/sell
> Recommended to use with my other indicator: 5/15-Min-ORB-Trend-Finder-WiP
Strategy:
> Use with 1-min chart with 5-min High/Low or 5-min chart with 15-min High/Low
> After a breakout, wait for confirmation before placing a trade, which is:
- Two confirming candles (green for long/buy, red for short/sell)
and
- Buy-or-Sell-WiP histogram: green for long/buy, red for short/sell
SFC Bollinger Band and Bandit概述 (Overview)
SFC 布林通道與海盜策略 (SFC Bollinger Band and Bandit Strategy) 是一個基於 Pine Script™ v6 的技術分析指標，結合布林通道 (Bollinger Bands)、移動平均線 (Moving Averages) 以及布林海盜 (Bollinger Bandit) 交易策略，旨在為交易者提供多時間框架的趨勢分析與進出場訊號。該腳本支援風險管理功能，並提供視覺化圖表與交易訊號提示，適用於多種金融市場。
This script, written in Pine Script™ v6, combines Bollinger Bands, Moving Averages, and the Bollinger Bandit strategy to provide traders with multi-timeframe trend analysis and entry/exit signals. It includes risk management features and visualizes data through charts and trading signals, suitable for various financial markets.
功能特點 (Key Features)
布林通道 (Bollinger Bands)
提供可調整的標準差參數 (σ1, σ2)，支援多層布林通道顯示。
進場訊號基於價格穿越布林通道上下軌，並結合連續K線確認機制。
Provides adjustable standard deviation parameters (σ1, σ2) for multi-layer Bollinger Bands display.
Entry signals are based on price crossing the upper/lower bands, combined with a consecutive bar confirmation mechanism.
移動平均線 (Moving Averages)
支援簡單移動平均線 (SMA) 或指數移動平均線 (EMA)，可自訂快、中、慢線週期。
Supports Simple Moving Average (SMA) or Exponential Moving Average (EMA) with customizable fast, medium, and slow line periods.
布林海盜策略 (Bollinger Bandit Strategy)
基於變動率 (ROC) 與布林通道動態止損，提供做多與做空訊號。
包含動態止損均線與平倉天數設定，增強交易靈活性。
Utilizes Rate of Change (ROC) and Bollinger Bands with dynamic stop-loss for long and short signals.
Includes dynamic stop-loss moving average and liquidation days for enhanced trading flexibility.
多時間框架分析 (Multi-Timeframe Analysis)
支援六個時間框架 (5分、15分、1小時、4小時、日線、週線) 的趨勢分析。
通過表格顯示各時間框架的連續上漲/下跌趨勢，輔助交易決策。
Supports trend analysis across six timeframes (5m, 15m, 1h, 4h, daily, weekly).
Displays consecutive up/down trends in a table to aid decision-making.
風險管理 (Risk Management)
提供基於 ATR 或布林通道的停利/停損設定。
自動計算交易手數，根據報價貨幣匯率調整風險敞口。
Offers take-profit/stop-loss settings based on ATR or Bollinger Bands.
Automatically calculates trading lots, adjusting risk exposure based on quote currency exchange rates.
視覺化與提示 (Visualization and Alerts)
繪製布林通道、移動平均線、海盜策略動態止損線及交易訊號。
提供多時間框架趨勢表格、交易手數標籤及浮水印。
支援交易訊號快訊，方便即時監控。
Plots Bollinger Bands, Moving Averages, Bandit strategy stop-loss lines, and trading signals.
Includes multi-timeframe trend tables, trading lot labels, and watermark.
Supports alert conditions for real-time trade monitoring.
使用說明 (Usage Instructions)
設置參數 (Parameter Setup)
布林通道 (Bollinger Bands): 可調整週期 (預設21)、標準差 (σ1=1, σ2=2) 及停利/停損依據 (ATR 或 BAND)。
移動平均線 (Moving Averages): 可選擇顯示快線 (10)、中線 (20)、慢線 (60)，並切換 SMA/EMA。
布林海盜 (Bollinger Bandit): 調整通道週期 (50)、平倉均線週期 (50) 及 ROC 週期 (30)。
時間框架 (Timeframes): 自訂六個時間框架，預設為 5分、15分、1小時、4小時、日線、週線。
Adjust Bollinger Band period (default 21), standard deviations (σ1=1, σ2=2), and take-profit/stop-loss basis (ATR or BAND).
Configure Moving Averages (fast=10, medium=20, slow=60) and toggle SMA/EMA.
Set Bollinger Bandit parameters: channel period (50), liquidation MA period (50), ROC period (30).
Customize six timeframes (default: 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h, daily, weekly).
交易訊號 (Trading Signals)
買入訊號 (Buy): 價格穿越下軌且滿足連續K線條件。
賣出訊號 (Sell): 價格穿越上軌且滿足連續K線條件。
海盜策略訊號: 基於 ROC 與布林通道穿越，結合動態止損。
Buy signal: Price crosses below lower band with consecutive bar confirmation.
Sell signal: Price crosses above upper band with consecutive bar confirmation.
Bandit strategy signals: Based on ROC and band crossings with dynamic stop-loss.
視覺化 (Visualization)
布林通道以不同顏色顯示上下軌與中軌。
移動平均線以快、中、慢線區分顏色。
趨勢表格顯示各時間框架的趨勢狀態 (🔴上漲, 🟢下跌, ⚪中性)。
海盜策略顯示動態止損線與交易狀態。
Bollinger Bands display upper, lower, and middle bands in distinct colors.
Moving Averages use different colors for fast, medium, and slow lines.
Trend table shows timeframe trends (🔴 up, 🟢 down, ⚪ neutral).
Bandit strategy displays dynamic stop-loss and trading status.
