Trendline Detector - 3 TimeframesThis advanced Pine Script indicator automatically identifies and draws diagonal support and resistance trendlines across three customizable timeframes simultaneously.
Key Features:
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Configure three independent sets (A, B, C) to analyze different timeframes on a single chart
Smart Pivot Detection: Identifies local minimums and maximums based on open/close prices rather than wicks, reducing false signals from volatile candle shadows
Automatic Trendline Drawing: Calculates ascending support lines from pivot lows and descending resistance lines from pivot highs
Touch Validation: Only displays trendlines that meet your minimum touch requirements, ensuring statistical significance
Customizable Parameters: Full control over lookback period, pivot window size, deviation tolerance, and minimum touches for each timeframe
Visual Pivot Markers: Optional display of all detected pivot points with color-coded arrows (green for lows, red for highs)
Extended Lines: All valid trendlines extend to the right for forward projection
How It Works:
The indicator scans historical bars within your specified lookback period to identify pivot points. It then evaluates all possible trendline combinations, counting how many price points touch each potential line within your deviation tolerance. The trendline with the most touches (meeting your minimum requirement) is displayed.
Parameter Breakdown:
Each set (A, B, C) includes five critical parameters:
Timeframe: The chart timeframe for analysis (e.g., "1" for 1-minute, "15" for 15-minute, "1D" for daily)
Lookback Bars: How many historical bars to scan for pivot points (default: 250). Higher values capture longer-term trends but may increase computation time.
Min Touches: Minimum number of price touches required for a trendline to be considered valid (default: 3). Higher values ensure stronger, more reliable trendlines but may filter out emerging trends.
Deviation %: Percentage tolerance for what constitutes a "touch" (default: 0.1-1.0%). A 0.5% deviation means prices within 0.5% of the theoretical trendline are counted as touches. Lower values create stricter trendlines; higher values are more forgiving.
Pivot Window: Number of bars on each side used to identify local highs/lows (default: 5). A pivot window of 5 means the center bar must be the highest/lowest among 11 bars total (5 left + center + 5 right). Larger values identify more significant pivots but may miss shorter-term turning points.
Display Options:
Show Min/Max Points: Toggle visibility of pivot point markers to see exactly which price levels the algorithm identified as potential trendline anchors.
Perfect For:
Swing traders looking for multi-timeframe confluence zones
Technical analysts who rely on diagonal support/resistance levels
Traders who want automated trendline detection without manual drawing
Anyone seeking to identify trend channels and breakout opportunities
Color Coding:
Support lines are displayed in green with varying transparency, while resistance lines appear in red. Each timeframe set can be independently enabled/disabled based on which chart timeframe you're currently viewing, preventing clutter and maintaining clarity.
Technical Notes:
The indicator uses efficient algorithms to process large datasets while maintaining accuracy. It avoids repainting by only considering confirmed pivot points. The algorithm prioritizes trendlines with more touches and, in case of ties, favors more recent formations with steeper angles for maximum relevance.
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Trend Bars with Counter Table# TradingView Trend Bar Indicator Explained
## Indicator Overview
This is a TradingView indicator designed to identify and count **Trend Bars**. It not only visually marks strong bullish and bearish bars on the chart but also displays a data table in the upper right corner that tracks the distribution of trend bars across different periods, helping traders quickly assess market bias.
## Core Concept: What is a Trend Bar?
The indicator defines two types of trend bars:
### Bull Trend Bar
- **Condition**: Close > Open (bullish candle)
- **Strength Requirement**: Body size ≥ 75% of total candle range
```
Body Length = |Close - Open|
Total Candle Range = High - Low
Criteria: Body Length ≥ 0.75 × Total Candle Range
```
This means both upper and lower wicks are very short, representing a very strong bullish candle.
### Bear Trend Bar
- **Condition**: Close < Open (bearish candle)
- **Strength Requirement**: Body size ≥ 75% of total candle range
Similarly, this represents a strong bearish candle with minimal wicks and a full body.
## Visual Markers
The indicator marks qualifying candles with:
- **Green upward arrow**: Bull trend bar, appears below the candle
- **Red downward arrow**: Bear trend bar, appears above the candle
## Statistical Function
The indicator uses a **rolling array** (storing up to 1000 trend bars) to track historical data, then counts trend bar distribution across 5 different periods:
| Period | Statistical Range |
|--------|------------------|
| Group 1 | Last 7 trend bars |
| Group 2 | Last 15 trend bars |
| Group 3 | Last 21 trend bars |
| Group 4 | Last 29 trend bars |
| Group 5 | Last 35 trend bars |
**Note**: This counts "the last N trend bars," not "the last N candles." Only candles meeting the trend bar criteria are included.
## Data Table Interpretation
The table in the upper right corner contains 5 columns:
1. **Last N**: The set statistical range (7, 15, 21, 29, 35)
2. **Total**: Actual number of trend bars counted (may be less than target initially)
3. **Bull**: Number of bull trend bars (displayed in green)
4. **Bear**: Number of bear trend bars (displayed in red)
5. **Bias**: Market bias
- "bull" (green): More bull trend bars
- "bear" (red): More bear trend bars
## Practical Applications
### 1. Assess Short-term Momentum
Check the distribution of the last 7 trend bars. If bull trend bars dominate (e.g., 5:2), it indicates strong short-term buying pressure.
### 2. Identify Trend Strength
If multiple periods show the same Bias direction, the trend is very clear. For example, all 5 periods showing "bull" is a strong upward signal.
### 3. Spot Trend Reversals
When short-term bias (7 bars) opposes long-term bias (35 bars), it may signal a trend change in progress.
### 4. Combine with Other Indicators
Use this indicator alongside moving averages, support/resistance levels, and other tools to improve trading decision accuracy.
## Technical Highlights
- **Dynamic Array Management**: Uses `array.unshift()` to add new data at the array's beginning, ensuring the latest trend bars are always first
- **Efficient Statistics**: Quickly calculates bull/bear distribution through loop iteration over specified array ranges
- **Adaptive Display**: Shows actual available count when historical data is insufficient
- **Real-time Updates**: Only updates the table on the last bar to avoid unnecessary calculations
## Conclusion
The core value of this indicator lies in **quantifying price action**. By identifying strong candles with full bodies and clear direction, then tracking their distribution, traders can quickly grasp the balance of market forces and make more informed trading decisions. Whether for intraday trading or swing trading, this tool provides valuable reference information.
Force DashboardScalping Dashboard - Complete User Guide
Overview
This scalping system consists of two complementary TradingView indicators designed for intraday trading with no overnight holds:
Force Dashboard - Single-row table showing real-time market bias and entry signals
Large Order Detection - Visual diamonds showing institutional order flow
Together, they provide a complete at-a-glance view of market conditions optimized for quick entries and exits.
Recommended Timeframes
Primary Scalping Timeframes
1-minute chart: Ultra-fast scalps (30 seconds - 3 minutes hold time)
2-minute chart: Quick scalps (2-5 minutes hold time)
5-minute chart: Standard scalps (5-15 minutes hold time)
Best Practices
Use 1-2 minute for highly liquid instruments (ES, NQ, major forex pairs)
Use 5-minute for less liquid markets or if you prefer fewer signals
Never hold past the last hour of trading to avoid overnight risk
Set hard stop times (e.g., exit all positions by 3:45 PM EST)
Dashboard Components Explained
Core Indicators (Circles ●)
MACD (5/13/5)
Green ● = Bullish momentum (MACD histogram positive)
Red ● = Bearish momentum (MACD histogram negative)
Gray ● = No clear momentum
Use: Confirms trend direction and momentum shifts
EMA (9/20/50)
Green ● = Price > EMA9 > EMA20 (uptrend)
Red ● = Price < EMA9 < EMA20 (downtrend)
Gray ● = Choppy/sideways
Use: Identifies the immediate micro-trend
Stoch (5-period Stochastic)
Green ● = Oversold (<20) - potential reversal up
Red ● = Overbought (>80) - potential reversal down
Gray ● = Neutral zone (20-80)
Use: Spots reversal opportunities at extremes
RSI (7-period)
Green ● = Oversold (<30)
Red ● = Overbought (>70)
Gray ● = Neutral
Use: Confirms overbought/oversold conditions
CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta)
Green ● = CVD above its moving average (buying pressure)
Red ● = CVD below its moving average (selling pressure)
Gray ● = Neutral
Use: Shows overall buying vs selling pressure
ΔCVD (Delta CVD - Rate of Change)
Green ● = CVD accelerating upward (buying acceleration)
Red ● = CVD accelerating downward (selling acceleration)
Gray ● = No acceleration
Use: Detects momentum shifts in order flow
Imbal (Order Flow Imbalance)
Green ● = Buy pressure >2x sell pressure
Red ● = Sell pressure >2x buy pressure
Gray ● = Balanced
Use: Identifies extreme one-sided order flow
Vol (Volume Strength)
Green ● = Volume >1.5x average (strong interest)
Red ● = Volume <0.7x average (low interest)
Gray ● = Normal volume
Yellow background = Volume surge (>2x average) - BIG MOVE ALERT
Use: Confirms conviction behind price moves
Tape (Tape Speed)
Green ● = Fast order flow (>1.3x normal)
Red ● = Slow order flow (<0.7x normal)
Gray ● = Normal speed
Yellow background = Very fast tape (>1.5x) - RAPID EXECUTION ALERT
Use: Measures urgency and speed of orders
Key Levels
Support (Supp)
Shows the nearest high-volume support level below current price
Bright Green background = Price is AT support (within 0.3%) - BOUNCE ZONE
Green background = Price above support (healthy)
Red background = Price below support (broken support, now resistance)
Resistance (Res)
Shows the nearest high-volume resistance level above current price
Bright Orange background = Price is AT resistance (within 0.3%) - REJECTION ZONE
Red background = Price below resistance (facing overhead supply)
Green background = Price above resistance (breakout)
These levels update automatically every 3 bars based on volume profile
Entry Signal Components
Score
Displays format: "6L" (6 long indicators) or "4S" (4 short indicators)
Bright Green = 6-7 indicators aligned for long
Light Green = 5 indicators aligned for long
Yellow = 4 indicators aligned (weaker setup)
Gray = No alignment
Red/Orange colors = Same scale for short setups
Score of 5+ indicates high-probability setup
SCALP (Main Entry Signal)
BRIGHT GREEN "LONG" = High-quality long scalp (Score 5+)
Green "LONG" = Decent long scalp (Score 4)
BRIGHT ORANGE "SHORT" = High-quality short scalp (Score 5+)
Red "SHORT" = Decent short scalp (Score 4)
Gray "WAIT" = No clear setup - STAY OUT
Entry Strategies
Strategy 1: High-Probability Scalps (Conservative)
When to Enter:
SCALP column shows BRIGHT GREEN "LONG" or BRIGHT ORANGE "SHORT"
Score is 5 or higher
Vol or Tape has yellow background (volume surge)
Example Long Setup:
SCALP = BRIGHT GREEN "LONG"
Score = 6L
Vol = Yellow background
Price AT Support (bright green Supp cell)
EMA, MACD, CVD, ΔCVD, Imbal all green
Entry: Enter immediately on next candle
Target: 0.5-1% move or resistance level
Stop: Below support or -0.3%
Hold Time: 2-10 minutes
Strategy 2: Momentum Scalps (Aggressive)
When to Enter:
Tape has yellow background (fast tape)
Vol has yellow background (volume surge)
ΔCVD is green (for longs) or red (for shorts)
Imbal shows strong imbalance in your direction
Score is 4+
Example Short Setup:
Tape & Vol = Yellow backgrounds
ΔCVD = Red, Imbal = Red
Price AT Resistance (bright orange)
Score = 5S
Entry: Enter immediately
Target: Quick 0.3-0.7% move
Stop: Tight -0.2%
Hold Time: 1-5 minutes
Strategy 3: Reversal Scalps (Mean Reversion)
When to Enter:
Stoch shows oversold (green) or overbought (red)
RSI confirms the extreme
Price is AT Support (for longs) or AT Resistance (for shorts)
ΔCVD and Imbal start reversing direction
Score is 4+
Example Long Setup:
Stoch = Green (oversold)
RSI = Green (oversold)
Supp = Bright green (at support)
ΔCVD turns green
Imbal turns green
Score = 4L or 5L
Entry: Wait for confirmation candle
Target: Move back to EMA9 or mid-range
Stop: Below the low
Hold Time: 3-8 minutes
Large Order Detection Usage
Diamond Signals
Green diamonds below bar = Large buy orders (institutional buying)
Red diamonds above bar = Large sell orders (institutional selling)
Size matters: Larger diamonds = larger order flow
How to Use with Dashboard
Confirmation Entries
Dashboard shows "LONG" signal
Green diamond appears
Enter immediately - institutions are buying
Divergence Alerts (CAUTION)
Dashboard shows "LONG" signal
RED diamond appears (institutions selling)
DO NOT ENTER - conflicting order flow
Cluster Patterns
Multiple green diamonds in row = Strong accumulation, stay long
Multiple red diamonds in row = Strong distribution, stay short
Alternating colors = Chop, avoid trading
Risk Management Rules
Position Sizing
Risk 0.5-1% of account per scalp
Maximum 3 concurrent positions
Reduce size after 2 consecutive losses
Stop Loss Guidelines
Tight stops: 0.2-0.3% for 1-2 min charts
Standard stops: 0.3-0.5% for 5 min charts
Always use stop loss - no exceptions
Place stops below support (longs) or above resistance (shorts)
Take Profit Targets
Target 1: 0.3-0.5% (take 50% off)
Target 2: 0.7-1% (take remaining 50%)
Move stop to breakeven after Target 1 hit
Trail stop if Score remains high
Time-Based Exits
Exit immediately if:
SCALP changes from LONG/SHORT to WAIT
Score drops below 3
Large diamond appears in opposite direction
Maximum hold time: 15 minutes (even if profitable)
Hard exit time: 30 minutes before market close
Trading Sessions
Best Times to Scalp
High-Liquidity Sessions
9:30-11:00 AM EST (Market open, highest volume)
2:00-3:30 PM EST (Afternoon session, good moves)
Avoid
11:30 AM-1:30 PM EST (Lunch, low volume)
Last 30 minutes (unpredictable, don't initiate new trades)
News releases (wait 5 minutes for volatility to settle)
Common Patterns & Setups
The Perfect Storm (Highest Probability)
Score = 6L or 7L
SCALP = BRIGHT GREEN
Vol + Tape = Yellow backgrounds
Green diamond appears
Price AT Support
Win rate: ~70-80%
The Fade Setup (Counter-Trend)
Price hits resistance (bright orange)
Stoch + RSI overbought (red)
Red diamond appears
CVD starts turning red
SCALP shows "SHORT"
Win rate: ~60-70%
The Breakout Continuation
Price breaks resistance (Res turns green)
EMA, MACD green
Vol surge (yellow)
Multiple green diamonds
SCALP = "LONG"
Win rate: ~65-75%
Warning Signs - DO NOT TRADE
Red Flags
❌ SCALP shows "WAIT"
❌ Score below 3
❌ Vol and Tape both gray (no volume)
❌ Conflicting signals (dashboard says LONG but red diamonds appearing)
❌ Alternating green/red circles (choppy market)
❌ Support and Resistance very close together (tight range)
Market Conditions to Avoid
Low volume periods
Major news releases (first 5 minutes after)
First 2 minutes after market open
Wide spreads
Consecutive losing trades (take a break after 2 losses)
Quick Reference Checklist
Before Taking ANY Trade:
☑ SCALP shows LONG or SHORT (not WAIT)
☑ Score is 4 or higher
☑ Vol or Tape shows activity
☑ No conflicting diamond signals
☑ Stop loss level identified
☑ Target profit level identified
☑ Not in restricted time periods
After Entering:
☑ Set stop loss immediately
☑ Set profit targets
☑ Watch SCALP column - exit if changes to WAIT
☑ Watch for opposite-colored diamonds
☑ Move stop to breakeven after first target
☑ Exit all by market close
Advanced Tips
Scalping Psychology
Be patient: Wait for Score 5+ setups
Be decisive: When signal appears, act immediately
Be disciplined: Follow your stop loss always
Be flexible: Exit quickly if dashboard reverses
Optimization
Backtest on your specific instrument
Adjust RSI/Stoch levels for your market
Fine-tune volume thresholds
Keep a trade journal to track which setups work best
Multi-Timeframe Confirmation
Use 5-min dashboard as "trend filter"
Take 1-min trades only in direction of 5-min SCALP signal
Increases win rate by ~10-15%
Troubleshooting
Q: Dashboard shows WAIT most of the time
Normal - scalping is about patience. Quality > Quantity
3-8 good setups per day is excellent
Q: Too many false signals
Increase minimum Score requirement to 5 or 6
Only trade with volume surge (yellow backgrounds)
Add large order detection confirmation
Q: Signals too slow
You may be on too high a timeframe
Try 1-minute chart for faster signals
Ensure real-time data feed is active
Q: Support/Resistance not updating
Normal - updates every 3 bars
If completely stuck, remove and re-add indicator
Summary
This scalping system works best when:
✅ Multiple indicators align (Score 5+)
✅ Volume and tape speed confirm the move
✅ Order flow (diamonds) confirms direction
✅ Price is at key levels (support/resistance)
✅ You manage risk strictly
✅ You exit before market close
The golden rule: When SCALP says WAIT, you WAIT. Discipline beats frequency.
ES VIX on MNQ🧭 ES + VIX Overlay on MNQ
This indicator overlays the ES (S&P 500 futures) and VIX (Volatility Index) directly on the MNQ (Micro Nasdaq Futures) chart, allowing traders to visualize in real time the correlation, divergence, and volatility influence between the three instruments.
⸻
⚙️ How It Works
• The VIX is dynamically rescaled to the MNQ’s daily open, so its moves appear on the same price scale.
• The ES line is projected based on its percentage move relative to the session open (18:00 NY).
• Both are plotted in sync with MNQ to expose relative strength and divergence zones that often precede strong directional moves.
⸻
🧩 Inputs
• VIX Symbol: choose between VIX, CBOE:VIX, TVC:VIX
• Invert VIX Correlation: flips the VIX line for inverse-correlation setups
• VIX Step: controls how sensitively the VIX moves on the MNQ scale
• ES Symbol: defines the ES contract (e.g. ES1!)
• Show Signals: toggles on/off buy & sell markers
• Step (points): minimum distance between MNQ and VIX for a valid signal
• Block Signals: disables signals between 16:15 – 03:15 (illiquid hours)
⸻
💡 Signal Logic
The system tracks crossings between MNQ and the projected VIX line:
• Buy signal → when MNQ crosses above the VIX and expands upward by ≥ X points.
• Sell signal → when MNQ crosses below the VIX and expands downward by ≥ X points.
A time filter avoids noise during low-volume sessions.
⸻
📊 Visual Guide
• Cyan line = VIX on MNQ scale
• Orange line = ES on MNQ scale
• Labels on the right = current VIX / ES values
• BUY/SELL markers = potential volatility-based reversals
⸻
🚀 Practical Use
Perfect for traders who monitor:
• VIX–price divergence
• ES vs MNQ momentum confirmation
• Early volatility expansions before trend moves
⸻
💬 Core Idea:
“Volatility leads — price confirms.”
ETH Short-Term VWAP+EMA/RSI (ATR Risk, <1h) (James Logan)ETH Short-Term VWAP + EMA / RSI Strategy (ATR-based Risk Control)
A short-term (< 1 hour) ETH trading system designed for intraday scalps and momentum swings on 5- to 15-minute charts.
It blends trend confirmation (EMA 50 / 200) with intrabar structure (EMA 21 pullback & VWAP filter) and RSI momentum triggers, managing exits dynamically through ATR-based stop, take-profit, and trailing stop targets.
Core logic
• Long when RSI crosses above the threshold within an up-trend (EMA 50 > EMA 200) and price is above VWAP.
• Short when RSI crosses below threshold within a down-trend (EMA 50 < EMA 200) and price is below VWAP.
• Optional pullback confirmation to the 21-EMA for cleaner entries.
• Risk defined by ATR-multiples for stop-loss, take-profit, and an adaptive trailing stop.
• Automatic flat-out exit after a set number of bars (time-based close).
Best use
• 5 min – 15 min ETH/USDT charts (Binance, Bybit, Coinbase, etc.)
• Works with both spot and perpetual data.
• Tune ATR and RSI thresholds per venue; defaults are balanced for 0.05 % per-side fees.
Key parameters
• ATR SL × 1.6 ATR TP × 2.2 ATR Trail × 2.0
• RSI 50 cross | EMA 50/200 trend filter | VWAP confirmation
• Default position sizing = USD-based (e.g. $1 000 per trade).
Notes
• All orders and exits are simulated at bar close; use 1-minute bar magnifier for finer fill modeling.
• No repainting—uses only confirmed bar data.
• Best validated with ≥ 200 trades and profit factor > 1.25 over multi-month backtests.
Moving Average ProjectionDisplays 2-5 moving averages (solid lines) and projects their future trajectory (dashed lines) based on current trend momentum. This helps you anticipate where key MAs are heading and identify potential future support/resistance levels.
Important: Projections show where MAs would move IF the current trend continues—they're not predictions. Market conditions change, so use projections as planning tools, not trading signals.
General Settings
Number of MAs (2-5) controls how many moving averages display on your chart. Start with 2-3 to avoid clutter. Projection Bars (1-100) determines how far into the future to project—use 10-20 for intraday charts and 20-40 for daily charts. Lookback for Slope (2-100) sets the number of bars used to calculate trend slope, where shorter lookbacks are more responsive and longer ones are smoother. The default of 20 works well for most situations.
Individual MA Settings (MA 1-5)
Each MA has four settings: Length sets the period for the MA (common values are 9, 20, 50, 100, and 200), Type lets you choose between SMA, EMA, WMA, HMA, VWMA, or RMA (EMA is most popular), Color sets the historical MA line color, and Projection Color sets the projected line color (usually a lighter or transparent version of the main color).
MA Types Quick Reference: EMA is most popular and responsive to recent prices. SMA gives equal weight to all periods and is the smoothest. HMA is very responsive with low lag. VWMA incorporates volume data.
Quick Setup Examples
Day Trading: 3 MAs (9/21/50 EMA), 10-15 projection bars, 10-15 lookback
Swing Trading: 2 MAs (50/200 EMA), 20-30 projection bars, 20 lookback
Scalping: 2 MAs (9/20 EMA), 5-10 projection bars, 5-10 lookback
How to Use
Trend Identification: An uptrend shows price above rising MAs with projections pointing up. A downtrend shows price below falling MAs with projections pointing down. Consolidation appears as flat MAs with horizontal projections.
Support & Resistance: Rising MA projections act as future dynamic support levels, while falling MA projections act as future dynamic resistance levels.
Anticipating Changes: Watch for projected MA crossovers before they happen. When projections converge, expect volatility or consolidation. Steep projections suggest unsustainable trends, so be cautious. Flat projections indicate ranging markets.
Trade Planning: Check the current trend using MA alignment, then look at projections to gauge trend continuation likelihood. Use projected MA levels for potential targets or stop placement.
Important Tips
When Projections Work Best: Projections are most reliable in stable trending markets with consistent momentum, low volatility environments, and away from major news events.
When to Be Cautious: Use caution during high volatility or choppy price action, around major economic releases, when projections show extreme or parabolic angles, and during trend transitions.
Combine With Other Analysis: Don't trade projections alone. Use them alongside price action, volume, support and resistance levels, and other indicators for confirmation.
Best Practices
Start with 2-3 MAs to avoid chart clutter. Match your projection and lookback bars to your trading timeframe. Use consistent color schemes for quick interpretation. Adjust settings as market conditions change. Always use proper risk management—projections are planning tools, not guarantees.
Troubleshooting
Projections not showing: Check that Projection Bars > 0 and you're viewing the most recent bar
Chart too cluttered: Reduce number of MAs or increase projection color transparency
Projections too volatile: Increase lookback bars or switch to EMA/SMA from HMA
Can't see certain MAs: Verify "Number of MAs" setting includes them (MA 3 won't show if set to 2)
📋 Trading Checklist – Precision Entry SystemTake your trading discipline to the next level with this Precision Trading Checklist for TradingView. Designed for intraday traders following liquidity, structure, and Smart Money Concepts (SMC) AKA ICT Concepts, this overlay ensures you never miss a key confirmation before entering a trade.
Features:
✅ Pre-Market Preparation: Track previous session highs/lows, AM/PM sessions, and key liquidity zones.
✅ Bias & Narrative Check: Quickly confirm daily trend, price position relative to daily open, and higher timeframe confluence.
✅ Session-Specific Rules: Focused sessions like Silver Bullet (10:00–11:30), Afternoon (13:30–15:00), and Final Hour (15:00–16:00).
✅ Structure & Setup Validation: Confirm liquidity sweeps, market structure shifts, expansion candles, fair value gaps, and order blocks.
✅ Risk Management Reminders: Stop-loss, target points, risk percentage, breakeven management, and pyramiding rules.
✅ Post-Trade Journaling: Document entries, session, setup type, trade outcome, and grading for continuous improvement.
✅ Golden Rules: Visual reminders to enforce discipline, avoid emotional trades, and respect session limits.
Why Use It:
This checklist is perfect for traders who want to stay consistent, minimise mistakes, and follow a disciplined routine. Displayed as an overlay on your chart, it provides all essential checks in one glance, keeping you focused on the setup rather than scrolling through notes or separate trackers.
How to use:
Add the indicator to your chart
Click the settings/gear icon
Check off items as you complete them
The checklist on your chart updates in real-time with green checkmarks!
The checkboxes will persist as long as the indicator is on your chart,
making it perfect for tracking your pre-trade and post-trade routines!
Follow the checklist items step by step before entering trades.
Use the session-specific guidelines to filter setups.
Journal your trades post-execution for growth and analysis.
Power Balance ForecasterHey trader buddy! Remember the old IBM 5150 on Wall Street back in the 80s? :) Well, I wanted to pay tribute to it with this retro-style code when MS DOS and CRT screens were the cutting edge of technology...
Analysis of the balance of power between buyers and sellers with price predictions
What This Indicator Does
The Power Balance Forecaster indicator analyzes the relationship between buyer and seller strength to predict future price movements. Here's what it does in detail:
Main Features:
Power Balance Analysis: Calculates real-time percentage of buyer power vs seller power
Price Predictions: Estimates next closing level based on current momentum
Market State Detection: Identifies 5 different market conditions
Visual Signals: Shows directional arrows and price targets
How the Trading Logic Works
Power Balance Calculation:
Analyzes Consecutive Bars - Counts consecutive bullish and bearish bars
Calculates Momentum - Uses ATR-normalized momentum to measure trend strength
Determines Market State - Assigns one of 5 market states based on conditions
Market States:
Bull Control: Strong uptrend (75% buyer power)
Bear Control: Strong downtrend (75% seller power)
Buying Pressure: Bullish pressure (65% buyer power)
Selling Pressure: Bearish pressure (65% seller power)
Balance Area: Market in equilibrium (50/50)
Prediction System:
Bullish Condition: Buyer power > 55% + Positive momentum = Bullish prediction
Bearish Condition: Seller power > 55% + Negative momentum = Bearish prediction
Price Target: Based on ATR multiplied by timeframe factor
Configurable Parameters:
Analysis Sensitivity (5-50): Controls how responsive the indicator is
Low values (5-15): More sensitive, ideal for scalping
High values (30-50): More stable, ideal for swing trading
Table Position: Choose from 9 positions to display the data table
Trading Signals:
Green Triangle ▲: Bullish signal, price expected to increase
Green Triangle ▼: Bearish signal, price expected to decrease
Dashed Line: Shows the price target projection
Label: Displays the exact target value
Recommended Timeframes:
Lower Timeframes (1-15 minutes):
Sensitivity: 10-20
Automatic Low TF mode
Higher Timeframes (1 hour - 1 day):
Sensitivity: 25-40
Automatic High TF mode
Important Notes:
Always use this indicator in combination with:
Market context analysis
Proper risk management
Confirmation from other indicators
Mandatory stop losses
The indicator works best in trending markets and may be less effective during extreme consolidation periods.
Analog Flow [KedArc Quant]Overview
AnalogFlow is an advanced analogue based market projection engine that reconstructs future price tendencies by matching current price behavior to historical analogues in the same instrument. Instead of using traditional indicators such as moving averages, RSI, or regression, AnalogFlow applies pattern vector similarity analysis - a data driven technique that identifies historically similar sequences and aggregates their subsequent movements into a smooth, forward looking curve.
Think of it as a market memory system:
If the current pattern looks like one we have seen before, how did price move afterward?
Why AnalogFlow Is Unique
1. Pattern centric - it does not rely on any standard indicator formula; it directly analyzes price movement vectors.
2. Adaptive - it learns from the same instrument's past behavior, making it self calibrating to volatility and regime shifts.
3. Non repainting - the projection is generated on the latest completed bar and remains fixed until new data is available.
4. Noise resistant - the EMA Blend engine smooths the projected trajectory, reducing random variance between analogues.
Inputs and Configuration
Pattern Bars
Number of bars in the reference pattern window: 40
Projection Bars
Number of bars forward to project: 30
Search Depth
Number of bars back to look for matching analogues: 600
Distance Metric
Comparison method: Euclidean, Manhattan, or Cosine (default Euclidean)
Matches
Number of top analogues to blend (1-5): Top 3
Build Mode
Projection type: Cumulative, MeanStep, or EMA Blend (default EMA Blend)
EMA Blend Length
Smoothness of the projected path: 15
Normalize Pattern
Enable Z score normalization for shape matching: true
Dissimilarity Mode
If true, finds inverse analogues for mean reversion analysis: false
Line Color and Width
Style settings for projection curve: Blue, width 2
How It Works with Past Data
1. The system builds a memory bank of patterns from the last N bars based on the scanDepth value.
2. It compares the latest Pattern Bars segment to each historical segment.
3. It selects the Top K most similar or dissimilar analogues.
4. For each analogue, it retrieves what happened after that pattern historically.
5. It averages or smooths those forward moves into a single composite forecast curve.
6. The forecast (blue line) is drawn ahead of the current candle using line.new with no repainting.
Output Explained
Blue Path
The weighted mean future trajectory based on historical analogues.
Smoother when EMA Blend mode is enabled.
Flat Section
Indicates low directional consensus or equilibrium across analogues.
Upward or Downward Slope
Represents historical tendency toward continuation or reversal following similar conditions.
Recommended Timeframes
Scalping / Short Term
1m - 5m : Short winLen (20-30), small ahead (10-15)
Swing Trading
15m - 1h : Balanced settings (winLen 40-60, ahead 20-30)
Positional / Multi Day
4h - 1D : Large windows (winLen 80-120, ahead 30-50)
Instrument Compatibility
Works seamlessly on:
Stocks and ETFs
Indices
Cryptocurrency
Commodities (Gold, Crude, etc.)
Futures and F&O (both intraday and positional)
Forex
No symbol specific calibration needed. It self adapts to volatility.
How Traders Can Use It
Forecast Context
Identify likely short term price path or drift direction.
Reversal Detection
Flip seekOpp to true for mean reversion pattern analysis.
Scenario Comparison
Observe whether the current regime tends to continue or stall.
Momentum Confirmation
Combine with trend tools such as EMA or MACD for directional bias.
Backtesting Support
Compare projected path versus realized price to evaluate reliability.
FAQ
Q1. Does AnalogFlow repaint?
No. It calculates only once per completed bar and projects forward. The future path remains static until a new bar closes.
Q2. Is it a neural network or AI model?
Not in the machine learning sense. It is a deterministic analogue matching engine using statistical distance metrics.
Q3. Why does the projection sometimes flatten?
That means similar historical setups had no clear consensus in direction (neutral expectation).
Q4. Can I use it for live trading signals?
AnalogFlow is not a signal generator. It provides probabilistic context for upcoming movement.
Q5. Does higher scanDepth improve accuracy?
Up to a point. More depth gives more analogues, but too much can dilute recency. Try 400 to 800.
Glossary
Analogue
A past pattern similar to the current price behavior.
Distance Metric
Mathematical formula for pattern similarity.
Step Vector
Difference between consecutive closing prices.
EMA Blend
Exponential smoothing of the projected path.
Cumulative Mode
Adds sequential historical deltas directly.
Z Score Normalization
Rescaling to mean 0 and variance 1 for shape comparison.
Summary
AnalogFlow converts the market's historical echoes into a structured, statistically weighted forward projection. It gives traders a contextual roadmap, not a signal, showing how similar past setups evolved and allowing better informed entries, exits, and scenario planning across all asset classes.
Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational purposes only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Trading involves risk, and users should exercise caution and proper risk management when applying this strategy.
Sigma Trinity ModelAbstract
Sigma Trinity Model is an educational framework that studies how three layers of market behavior interact within the same trend: (1) structural momentum (Rasta), (2) internal strength (RSI), and (3) continuation/compounding structure (Pyramid). The model deliberately combines bar-close momentum logic with intrabar, wick-aware strength checks to help users see how reversals form, confirm, and extend. It is not a signal service or automation tool; it is a transparent learning instrument for chart study and backtesting.
Why this is not “just a mashup”
Many scripts merge indicators without explaining the purpose. Sigma Trinity is a coordinated, three-engine study designed for a specific learning goal:
Rasta (structure): defines when momentum actually flips using a dual-line EMA vs smoothed EMA. It gives the entry/exit framework on bar close for clean historical study.
RSI (energy): measures internal strength with wick-aware triggers. It uses RSI of LOW (for bottom touches/reclaims) and RSI of HIGH (for top touches/exhaustion) so users can see intrabar strength/weakness that the close can hide.
Pyramid (progression): demonstrates how continuation behaves once momentum and strength align. It shows the logic of adds (compounding) as a didactic layer, also on bar close to keep historical alignment consistent.
These three roles are complementary, not redundant: structure → strength → progression.
Architecture Overview
Execution model
Rasta & Pyramid: bar close only by default (historically stable, easy to audit).
RSI: per tick (realtime) with bar-close backup by default, using RSI of LOW for entries and RSI of HIGH for exits. This makes the module sensitive to intra-bar wicks while still giving a close-based safety net for backtests.
Stops (optional in strategy builds): wick-accurate: trail arms/ratchets on HIGH; stop hit checks with LOW (or Close if selected) with a small undershoot buffer to avoid micro-noise hits.
Visual model
Dual lines (EMA vs smoothed EMA) for Rasta + color fog to see direction and compression/expansion.
Rungs (small vertical lines) drawn between the two Rasta lines to visualize wave spacing and rhythm.
Clean labels for Entry/Exit/Pyramid Add/RSI events. Everything is state-locked to avoid spamming.
Module 1 — Rasta (Structural Momentum Layer)
Goal: Identify structural momentum reversals and maintain a consistent, replayable backbone for study.
Method:
Compute an EMA of a chosen price source (default Close), and a smoothed version (SMA/EMA/RMA/WMA/None selectable).
Flip points occur when the EMA line crosses the smoothed line.
Optional EMA 8/21 trend filter can gate entries (long-bias when EMA8 > EMA21). A small “adaptive on flip” option lets an entry fire when the filter itself flips to ON and the EMA is already above the smoothed line—useful for trend resumption.
Why bar close only?
Bar-close Rasta gives a stable, auditable timeline for the structure of the trend. It teaches users to separate “structure” (close-resolved) from “energy” (intrabar, via RSI).
Visuals:
Fog between the lines (green/red) to show regime.
Rungs between lines to show spread (compression vs expansion).
Optional plotting of EMA8/EMA21 so users can see the gating effect.
Module 2 — RSI (Internal Strength / Energy Layer)
Goal: Reveal the intrabar strength/weakness that often precedes or confirms structural flips.
Method:
Standard RSI with adjustable length and signal smoothing for the panel view.
Logic uses wick-aware sources:
Entry trigger: RSI of LOW (same RSI length) touching or below a lower band (default 15). Think of it as intraband reactivation from the bottom, using the candle’s deepest excursion.
Exit trigger: RSI of HIGH touching or above an upper band (default 85). Think of it as exhaustion at the top, using the candle’s highest excursion.
Realtime + Close Backup: fires intrabar on tick, but if the realtime event was missed, the close backup will note it at bar end.
Cooldown control: optional bars-between-signals to avoid rapid re-triggers on choppy sequences.
Why wick-aware RSI?
A close-only RSI can miss the true micro-extremes that cause reversals. Using LOW/HIGH for triggers captures the behavior that traders actually react to during the bar, while the bar-close backup preserves historical reproducibility.
Module 3 — Pyramid (Continuation / Compounding Layer)
Goal: Teach how continuation behaves once a trend is underway, and how adds can be structured.
Method:
Same dual-line logic as Rasta (EMA vs smoothed EMA), but only fires when already in a position (or after prior entry conditions).
Supports the same EMA 8/21 filter and optional adaptive-on-flip behavior.
Bar close only to maintain historical cohesion.
What it teaches:
Adds tend to cluster when momentum persists.
Students can experiment with add spacing and compare “one-shot entries” vs “laddered adds” during strong regimes.
How the Pieces Work Together
Rasta establishes the structural frame (when the wave flip is real enough to record at close).
RSI validates or challenges that structure by tracking intrabar energy at the extremes (low/high touches).
Pyramid shows what sustained continuation looks like once (1) and (2) align.
This produces a layered view: Structure → Energy → Progression. Users can see when all three line up (strongest phases) and when they diverge (riskier phases or transitions).
How to Use It (Step-by-Step)
Quick Start
Apply script to any symbol/timeframe.
In Strategy/Indicator Properties:
Enable On every tick (recommended).
If available, enable Using bar magnifier and choose a lower resolution (e.g., 1m) to simulate intrabar fills more realistically.
Keep On bar close unchecked if you want to observe realtime logic in live charts (strategies still place orders on close by platform design).
Default behavior: Rasta & Pyramid = bar close; RSI = per tick with close backup.
Reading the Chart
Watch for Rasta Entry/Exit labels: they define clean structural turns on close.
Watch RSI Entry (LOW touch at/below lower band) and RSI Exit (HIGH touch at/above upper band) to gauge internal energy extremes.
Pyramid Add labels reveal continuation phases once a move is already in progress.
Tuning
Rasta smoothing: choose SMA/EMA/RMA/WMA or None. Higher smoothing → later but cleaner flips; lower smoothing → earlier but choppier.
RSI bands: a common educational setting is 15/85 for strong extremes; 20/80 is a bit looser.
Cooldown: increase if you see too many RSI re-fires in chop.
EMA 8/21 filter: toggle ON to study “trend-gated” entries, OFF to study raw momentum flips.
Backtesting Notes (for Strategy Builds)
Stops (optional): trail is armed when price advances by a trigger (default D–F₀), ratchets only upward from HIGH, and hits from LOW (or Close if chosen) with a tiny undershoot buffer to avoid micro-wicks.
Order sequencing per bar (mirrors the script’s code comments):
Trail ratchet via HIGH
Intrabar stop hit via LOW/CLOSE → immediate close
If still in position at bar close: process exits (Rasta/RSI)
If still in position at bar close: process Pyramid Add
If flat at bar close: process entries (Rasta/RSI)
Platform reality: strategies place orders at bar close in historical testing; the intrabar logic improves realism for stops and event marking but final order timestamps are still close-resolved.
Inputs Reference (common)
Modules: enable/disable RSI and Pyramid learning layers.
Rasta: EMA length, smoothing type/length, EMA8/21 filter & adaptive flip, fog opacity, rungs on/off & limit.
RSI: RSI length, signal MA length (panel), Entry band (LOW), Exit band (HIGH), cooldown bars, labels.
Pyramid: EMA length, smoothing, EMA8/21 filter & adaptive adds.
Execution: toggle Bar Close Only for Rasta/Pyramid; toggle Realtime + Close Backup for RSI.
Stops (strategy): Fixed Stop % (first), Fixed Stop % (add), Trail Distance %, Trigger rule (auto D–F₀ or custom), undershoot buffer %, and hit source (LOW/CLOSE).
What to Study With It
Convergence: how often RSI-LOW entry touches precede the next Rasta flip.
Divergence: cases where RSI screams exhaustion (HIGH >= upper band) but Rasta hasn’t flipped yet—often transition zones.
Continuation: how Pyramid adds cluster in strong moves; how spacing changes with smoothing/filter choices.
Regime changes: use EMA8/21 filter toggles to see what happens at macro turns vs chop.
Limitations & Scope
This is a learning tool, not a trade copier. It does not provide financial advice or automated execution.
Intrabar results depend on data granularity; bar magnifier (when available) can help simulate lower-resolution ticks, but true tick-by-tick fills are a platform-level feature and not guaranteed across all symbols.
Suggested Publication Settings (Strategy)
Initial capital: 100
Order size: 100 USD (cash)
Pyramiding: 10
Commission: 0.25%
Slippage: 3 ticks
Recalculate: ✓ On every tick
Fill orders: ✓ Using bar magnifier (choose 1m or similar); leave On bar close unchecked for live viewing.
Educational License
Released under the Michael Culpepper Gratitude License (2025).
Use and modify freely for education and research with attribution. No resale. No promises of profitability. Purpose is understanding, not signals.
Directional Strength and Momentum Index█ OVERVIEW
“Directional Strength and Momentum Index” (DSMI) is a technical analysis indicator inspired by DMI, but due to different source data, it produces distinct results. DSMI combines direction measurement, trend strength, and overheat levels into a single index, enhanced with gradient fills, extreme zones, entry signals, candle coloring, and a summary table.
█ CONCEPT
The classic DMI, despite its relatively simple logic, can seem somewhat chaotic due to separate +DI and -DI lines and the need for manual interpretation of their relationships. The DSMI indicator was created to increase clarity and speed up results, consolidating key information into a single index from 0 to 100 that simultaneously:
- Indicates trend direction (bullish/bearish)
- Measures movement strength
- Identifies overheat levels
- Generates ready entry signals
DMI (ADX + +DI / -DI) measures trend direction and strength, but does so based solely on comparing price movements between candles. ADX shows whether the trend is orderly and growing (e.g., above 20–30), but does not assess how dynamic the movement is.
DSMI, on the other hand, takes into account candle size and actual market aggression, thus showing directional momentum — whether the trend has real “fuel” to sustain or accelerate, not just whether it is orderly.
The main calculation difference involves replacing True Range with candle size (high-low) and using directional EMA instead of Wilder smoothing. This allows DSMI to react faster to momentum changes, eliminating delays typical of classic DMI based on TR.
This gives the trader an immediate picture of the market situation without analyzing multiple lines.
█ FEATURES
DSMI Main Line:
- EMA(Directional Index) based on +DS and -DS
- Scale 0–100, smooth color gradient depending on strength
+DS / -DS:
- Positive and Negative Directional Strength
- Gradient fill between lines — more intense with stronger trend
Extreme Zones:
- Default 20 and 80
- Gradient fill outside zones
Trend Strength Levels:
- Weak (<10) → neutral
- Moderate (up to 35)
- Strong (up to 45)
- Overheated (up to 55)
- Extreme (>55)
All levels editable
Entry Signals:
- Activated on crossing entry level (default 20)
Or on direction change when DSMI already ≥ entry level
- Highlighted background (green/red)
Candle Coloring:
- According to current trend
Trend Strength Table:
- Top-right corner
- Shows current strength (WEAK/STRONG etc.) + DSMI value
Alerts:
- DSMI Bullish Entry
- DSMI Bearish Entry
█ HOW TO USE
Add to Chart: Paste code in Pine Editor or find in indicator library.
Settings:
DSMI Parameters:
- DSMI Period → default 20
- Show DSMI Line → on/off
Extreme Zones:
- Lower Level → default 20
- Upper Level → default 80
Trend Strength Levels:
- Weak, Moderate, Strong, Overheated → adjust to strategy
Trend Colors:
- BULLISH → default green
- BEARISH → default red
- NEUTRAL → gray
Entry Signals:
- Show Highlight → on/off
- DSMI Entry Level → default 20
Signal Interpretation:
- DSMI Line: Main strength indicator.
- Gradient between +DS and -DS: Visualizes side dominance.
- Crossing 18 with direction confirmation → entry signal.
- Extreme Zones: Potential reversal or continuation points after correction.
- Table: Quick overview of current trend condition.
█ APPLICATIONS
The indicator works well in:
- Trend-following: Enter on signal, exit on direction change or overheat. When a new trend appears, consider entering a position, preferably with a rising trend strength indicator.
- Scalping/daytrading: Shorter period (7–10), lower entry level.
- Swing/position: Longer period (20–30), higher entry level, extreme zones as filters.
- Noise filtering: Ignores consolidation below “Weak” – increasing value e.g. to 15 highlights consolidation zones, but no signals appear there.
Style Adjustment:
- Aggressive strategies → shorten period and entry level
- Conservative → extend period, raise entry level (25–30), watch “Overheated”
“Weak” level (<10 default) → neutral; increasing it e.g. to 15 gives fewer but higher-quality signals. The Weak zone value controls the level below which no signals appear, and the gradient turns gray (often aligned with consolidation zones).
Combine with:
- Support/resistance levels
- Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
- Volume (Volume Profile, VWAP)
- Other oscillators (RSI, Stochastic)
█ NOTES
- Works on all markets and timeframes.
- Adjust period and levels to instrument volatility.
- Higher entry level → fewer signals, higher quality.
- Neutral color below “Weak” – avoids trading in consolidation.
- Gradient and table enable quick assessment without line analysis.
ADX Color Change by BehemothI find this tool to be the most valuable and accurate entry point indicator along with moving averages and the VWAP.
ADX Color Indicator - Controls & Intraday Trading Benefits
Indicator Controls:
1. ADX Length (default: 14)
- Controls the calculation period for ADX
- Lower values (7-10) = more sensitive, faster signals (better for scalping)
- Higher values (14-20) = smoother, fewer false signals (better for swing trades)
- *Intraday tip:* Try 10-14 for most intraday timeframes
2. Show Threshold Levels (default: On)
- Displays the 20 and 25 horizontal lines
- Helps you quickly identify when ADX crosses key strength levels
3. Use Custom Timeframe (default: Off)
- Allows viewing higher timeframe ADX on lower timeframe charts
- *Example:* Trade on 5-min chart but see 15-min or 1-hour ADX
4. Custom Timeframe
- Select any timeframe: 1m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 1H, 4H, D, etc.
- *Intraday tip:* Use 15m or 1H ADX on 5m charts for better trend context
5. Show +DI and -DI (default: Off)
- Shows directional movement indicators
- Green line (+DI) > Red line (-DI) = bullish trend
- Red line (-DI) > Green line (+DI) = bearish trend
6. Show Background Zon es (default: Off)
- Visual background colors for quick trend strength identification
- Green = strong trend (ADX > 25)
- Yellow = moderate trend (ADX 20-25)
Intraday Trading Benefits:
1. Avoid Choppy Markets
- When ADX < 20 (no background color), market is ranging
- Reduces false breakout trades and whipsaws
- Save time and capital by stepping aside during low-quality setups
2. Identify High-Probability Trend Trades
- **Green line + Green zone** = strong trend building, look for pullback entries
- Yellow line crossing above 20 = early trend formation signal
- Catch trends early when ADX starts rising from below 20
3. Multi-Timeframe Analysis
- Use custom timeframe to align with higher timeframe trends
- *Example:* If 1H ADX shows green (strong trend), take breakout trades on 5m chart in same direction
- Increases win rate by trading with the bigger picture
4. Exit Signals
- When ADX turns red (falling), trend is weakening
- Consider tightening stops or taking profits
- Avoid entering new positions when ADX is declining
5. Quick Visual Confirmation
- Color coding eliminates need to analyze numbers
- Instant recognition: Green = go, Yellow = caution, Red = trend dying
- Faster decision-making during fast market moves
6. Scalping Strategy
- Set ADX length to 7-10 for sensitive signals
- Only scalp when ADX is rising (blue, yellow, or green)
- Exit when ADX turns red
7. Breakout Confirmation
- Wait for ADX to rise above 20 after a breakout
- Filters false breakouts in ranging markets
- Yellow or green color confirms momentum behind the move
Optimal Intraday Settings:
- Day Trading (5-15 min charts):** ADX Length = 10-14
- Scalping (1-5 min charts):** ADX Length = 7-10, watch custom 15m timeframe
- Swing Intraday (30min-1H charts):** ADX Length = 14-20
Simple Trading Rules:
✅ Trade: ADX rising + above 20 (yellow or green)
⚠️ Caution: ADX flat or just crossed 20
❌ Avoid:*ADX falling (red) or below 20
The key advantage is staying out of low-quality, choppy price action which is where most intraday traders lose money!
[Parth🇮🇳] Wall Street US30 Pro - Prop Firm Edition....Yo perfect! Here's the COMPLETE strategy in simple words:
***
## WALL STREET US30 TRADING STRATEGY - SIMPLE VERSION
### WHAT YOU'RE TRADING:
US30 (Dow Jones Index) on 1-hour chart using a professional indicator with smart money concepts.
---
### WHEN TO TRADE:
**6:30 PM - 10:00 PM IST every day** (London-NY overlap = highest volume)
***
### THE INDICATOR SHOWS YOU:
A table in top-right corner with 5 things:
1. **Signal Strength** - How confident (need 70%+)
2. **RSI** - Momentum (need OK status)
3. **MACD** - Trend direction (need UP for buys, DOWN for sells)
4. **Volume** - Real or fake move (need HIGH)
5. **Trend** - Overall direction (need UP for buys, DOWN for sells)
Plus **green arrows** (buy signals) and **red arrows** (sell signals).
---
### THE RULES:
**When GREEN ▲ arrow appears:**
- Wait for 1-hour candle to close (don't rush in)
- Check the table:
- Signal Strength 70%+ ? ✅
- Volume HIGH? ✅
- RSI okay? ✅
- MACD up? ✅
- Trend up? ✅
- If all yes = ENTER LONG (BUY)
- Set stop loss 40-50 pips below entry
- Set take profit 2x the risk (2:1 ratio)
**When RED ▼ arrow appears:**
- Wait for 1-hour candle to close (don't rush in)
- Check the table:
- Signal Strength 70%+ ? ✅
- Volume HIGH? ✅
- RSI okay? ✅
- MACD down? ✅
- Trend down? ✅
- If all yes = ENTER SHORT (SELL)
- Set stop loss 40-50 pips above entry
- Set take profit 2x the risk (2:1 ratio)
***
### REAL EXAMPLE:
**7:45 PM IST - Green arrow appears**
Table shows:
- Signal Strength: 88% 🔥
- RSI: 55 OK
- MACD: ▲ UP
- Volume: 1.8x HIGH
- Trend: 🟢 UP
All checks pass ✅
**8:00 PM - Candle closes, signal confirmed**
I check table again - still strong ✓
**I enter on prop firm:**
- BUY 0.1 lot
- Entry: 38,450
- Stop Loss: 38,400 (50 pips below)
- Take Profit: 38,550 (100 pips above)
- Risk: $50
- Reward: $100
- Ratio: 1:2 ✅
**9:30 PM - Price hits 38,550**
- Take profit triggered ✓
- +$100 profit
- Trade closes
**Done for that signal!**
***
### YOUR DAILY ROUTINE:
**6:30 PM IST** - Open TradingView + prop firm
**6:30 PM - 10 PM IST** - Watch for signals
**When signal fires** - Check table, enter if strong
**10:00 PM IST** - Close all trades, done
**Expected daily** - 1-3 signals, +$100-300 profit
***
### EXPECTED RESULTS:
**Win Rate:** 65-75% (most trades win)
**Signals per day:** 1-3
**Profit per trade:** $50-200
**Daily profit:** $100-300
**Monthly profit:** $2,000-6,000
**Monthly return:** 20-30% (on $10K account)
---
### WHAT MAKES THIS WORK:
✅ Uses 7+ professional filters (not just 1 indicator)
✅ Checks volume (real moves only)
✅ Filters overbought/oversold (avoids tops/bottoms)
✅ Aligns with 4-hour trend (higher timeframe)
✅ Only trades peak volume hours (6:30-10 PM IST)
✅ Uses support/resistance (institutional levels)
✅ Risk/reward 2:1 minimum (math works out)
***
### KEY DISCIPLINE RULES:
**DO:**
- ✅ Only trade 6:30-10 PM IST
- ✅ Wait for candle to close
- ✅ Check ALL 5 table items
- ✅ Only take 70%+ strength signals
- ✅ Always use stop loss
- ✅ Always 2:1 reward ratio
- ✅ Risk 1-2% per trade
- ✅ Close all trades by 10 PM
- ✅ Journal every trade
- ✅ Follow the plan
**DON'T:**
- ❌ Trade outside 6:30-10 PM IST
- ❌ Enter before candle closes
- ❌ Take weak signals (below 70%)
- ❌ Trade without stop loss
- ❌ Move stop loss (lock in loss)
- ❌ Hold overnight
- ❌ Revenge trade after losses
- ❌ Overleverge (more than 0.1 lot start)
- ❌ Skip journaling
- ❌ Deviate from plan
***
### THE 5-STEP ENTRY PROCESS:
**Step 1:** Arrow appears on chart ➜
**Step 2:** Wait for candle to close ➜
**Step 3:** Check table (all 5 items) ➜
**Step 4:** If all good = go to prop firm ➜
**Step 5:** Enter trade with SL & TP
Takes 30 seconds once you practice!
***
### MONEY MATH (Starting with $5,000):
**If you take 20 signals per month:**
- Win 15, Lose 5 (75% rate)
- Wins: 15 × $100 = $1,500
- Losses: 5 × $50 = -$250
- Net: +$1,250/month = 25% return
**Month 2:** $5,000 + $1,250 = $6,250 account
**Month 3:** $6,250 + $1,562 = $7,812 account
**Month 4:** $7,812 + $1,953 = $9,765 account
**Month 5:** $9,765 + $2,441 = $12,206 account
**Month 6:** $12,206 + $3,051 = $15,257 account
**In 6 months = $10,000 account → $15,000+ (50% growth)**
That's COMPOUNDING, baby! 💰
***
### START TODAY:
1. Copy indicator code
2. Add to 1-hour US30 chart on TradingView
3. Wait until 6:30 PM IST tonight (or tomorrow if late)
4. Watch for signals
5. Follow the rules
6. Trade your prop firm
**That's it! Simple as that!**
***
### FINAL WORDS:
This isn't get-rich-quick. This is build-wealth-steadily.
You follow the plan, take quality signals only, manage risk properly, you WILL make money. Not every trade wins, but the winners are bigger than losers (2:1 ratio).
Most traders fail because they:
- Trade too much (overtrading)
- Don't follow their plan (emotions)
- Risk too much per trade (blown account)
- Chase signals (FOMO)
- Don't journal (repeat mistakes)
You avoid those 5 things = you'll be ahead of 95% of traders.
**Start trading 6:30 PM IST. Let's go! 🚀**
FVG MagicFVG Magic — Fair Value Gaps with Smart Mitigation, Inversion & Auto-Clean-up
FVG Magic finds every tradable Fair Value Gap (FVG), shows who powered it, and then manages each gap intelligently as price interacts with it—so your chart stays actionable and clean.
Attribution
This tool is inspired by the idea popularized in “Volumatic Fair Value Gaps ” by BigBeluga (licensed CC BY-NC-SA 4.0). Credit to BigBeluga for advancing FVG visualization in the community.
Important: This is a from-scratch implementation—no code was copied from the original. I expanded the concept substantially with a different detection stack, a gap state machine (ACTIVE → 50% SQ → MITIGATED → INVERSED), auto-clean up rules, lookback/nearest-per-side pruning, zoom-proof volume meters, and timeframe auto-tuning for 15m/H1/H4.
What makes this version more accurate
Full-coverage detection (no “missed” gaps)
Default ICT-minimal rule (Bullish: low > high , Bearish: high < low ) catches all valid 3-candle FVGs.
Optional Strict filter (stricter structure checks) for traders who prefer only “clean” gaps.
Optional size percentile filter—off by default so nothing is hidden unless you choose to filter.
Correct handling of confirmations (wick vs close)
Mitigation Source is user-selectable: high/low (wick-based) or close (strict).
This avoids false “misses” when you expect wick confirmations (50% or full fill) but your logic required closes.
State-aware labelling to prevent misleading data
The Bull%/Bear% meter is shown only while a gap is ACTIVE.
As soon as a gap is 50% SQ, MITIGATED, or INVERSED, the meter is hidden and replaced with a clear tag—so you never read stale participation stats.
Robust zoom behaviour
The meter uses a fixed bar-width (not pixels), so it stays proportional and readable at any zoom level.
Deterministic lifecycle (no stale boxes)
Remove on 50% SQ (instant or delayed).
Inversion window after first entry: if price enters but doesn’t invert within N bars, the box auto-removes once fully filled.
Inversion clean up: after a confirmed flip, keep for N bars (context) then delete (or 0 = immediate).
Result: charts auto-maintain themselves and never “lie” about relevance.
Clarity near current price
Nearest-per-side (keep N closest bullish & bearish gaps by distance to the midpoint) focuses attention where it matters without altering detection accuracy.
Lookback (bars) ensures reproducible behaviour across accounts with different data history.
Timeframe-aware defaults
Sensible auto-tuning for 15m / H1 / H4 (right-extension length, meter width, inversion windows, clean up bars) to reduce setup friction and improve consistency.
What it does (under the hood)
Detects FVGs using ICT-minimal (default) or a stricter rule.
Samples volume from a 10× lower timeframe to split participation into Bull % / Bear % (sum = 100%).
Manages each gap through a state machine:
ACTIVE → 50% SQ (midline) → MITIGATED (full) → INVERSED (SR flip after fill).
Auto-clean up keeps only relevant levels, per your rules.
Dashboard (top-right) displays counts by side and the active state tags.
How to use it
First run (show everything)
Use Strict FVG Filter: OFF
Enable Size Filter (percentile): OFF
Mitigation Source: high/low (wick-based) or close (stricter), as you prefer.
Remove on 50% SQ: ON, Delay: 0
Read the context
While ACTIVE, use the Bull%/Bear% meter to gauge demand/supply behind the impulse that created the gap.
Confluence with your HTF structure, sessions, VWAP, OB/FVG, RSI/MACD, etc.
Trade interactions
50% SQ: often the highest-quality interaction; if removal is ON, the box clears = “job done.”
Full mitigation then rejection through the other side → tag changes to INVERSED (acts like SR). Keep for N bars, then auto-remove.
Keep the chart tidy (optional)
If too busy, enable Size Filter or set Nearest per side to 2–4.
Use Lookback (bars) to make behaviour consistent across symbols and histories.
Inputs (key ones)
Use Strict FVG Filter: OFF(default)/ON
Enable Size Filter (percentile): OFF(default)/ON + threshold
Mitigation Source: high/low or close
Remove on 50% SQ + Delay
Inversion window after entry (bars)
Remove inversed after (bars)
Lookback (bars), Nearest per side (N)
Right Extension Bars, Max FVGs, Meter width (bars)
Colours: Bullish, Bearish, Inversed fill
Suggested defaults (per TF)
15m: Extension 50, Max 12, Inversion window 8, Clean up 8, Meter width 20
H1: Extension 25, Max 10, Inversion window 6, Clean up 6, Meter width 15
H4: Extension 15, Max 8, Inversion window 5, Clean up 5, Meter width 10
Notes & edge cases
If a wick hits 50% or the far edge but state doesn’t change, you’re likely on close mode—switch to high/low for wick-based behaviour.
If a gap disappears, it likely met a clean up condition (50% removal, inversion window, inversion clean up, nearest-per-side, lookback, or max-cap).
Meters are hidden after ACTIVE to avoid stale percentages.
MTF 20 SMA Table - DXY**MTF 20 SMA Table - Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis Dashboard**
**Overview:**
This indicator provides a comprehensive multi-timeframe analysis dashboard that displays the relationship between price and the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) across four key timeframes: 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, and Daily. It's designed to help traders quickly identify trend alignment and potential trading opportunities across multiple timeframes at a glance. It's definitely not perfect but has helped me speed up my backtesting efforts as it's worked well for me eliminating flipping back and forth between timeframes excpet when I have confluence on the table, then I check the HTF.
**How It Works:**
The indicator creates a table overlay on your chart showing three critical metrics for each timeframe:
1. **Price vs SMA (Row 1):** Shows whether price is currently above (bullish) or below (bearish) the 20 SMA
- Green = Price Above SMA
- Red = Price Below SMA
2. **SMA Direction (Row 2):** Indicates the trend direction of the SMA itself over a lookback period
- Green (↗ Rising) = Uptrend
- Red (↘ Falling) = Downtrend
- Gray (→ Flat) = Ranging/Consolidation
3. **Strength (Row 3):** Displays the distance between current price and the SMA in pips
- Purple background = Strong move (>50 pips away)
- Orange background = Moderate move (20-50 pips)
- Gray background = Weak/consolidating (<20 pips)
- Text color: Green for positive distance, Red for negative
**Key Features:**
- **Customizable Table Position:** Place the table anywhere on your chart (9 position options)
- **Adjustable SMA Lengths:** Modify the SMA period for each timeframe independently (default: 20)
- **Direction Lookback Settings:** Fine-tune how far back the indicator looks to determine SMA direction for each timeframe
- **Flat Threshold:** Set the pip threshold for determining when an SMA is "flat" vs trending (default: 5 pips)
- **DXY Optimized:** Calculations are calibrated for the US Dollar Index (1 pip = 0.01)
**Best Use Cases:**
1. **Trend Alignment:** Identify when multiple timeframes align in the same direction for higher probability trades
2. **Divergence Spotting:** Detect when lower timeframes diverge from higher timeframes (potential reversals)
3. **Entry Timing:** Use lower timeframe signals while higher timeframes confirm overall trend
4. **Strength Assessment:** Gauge how extended price is from the mean (SMA) to avoid overextended entries
**Settings Guide:**
- **SMA Settings Group:** Adjust the SMA period for each timeframe (15M, 1H, 4H, Daily)
- **SMA Direction Group:** Control lookback periods to determine trend direction
- 15M: Default 5 candles
- 1H: Default 10 candles
- 4H: Default 15 candles
- Daily: Default 20 candles
- **Flat Threshold:** Set sensitivity for "flat" detection (lower = more sensitive to ranging markets)
**Trading Strategy Examples:**
1. **Trend Following:** Look for all timeframes showing the same direction (all green or all red)
2. **Pullback Trading:** When Daily/4H are green but 15M/1H show red, wait for lower timeframes to flip green for entry
3. **Ranging Markets:** When multiple SMAs show "flat", consider range-bound strategies
**Important Notes:**
- This is a reference tool only, not a standalone trading system
- Always use proper risk management and combine with other analysis methods
- Best suited for trending instruments like indices and major forex pairs
- Calculations are optimized for DXY but can be used on other instruments (pip calculations may need adjustment)
**Credits:**
Feel free to modify and improve this code! Suggestions for enhancements are welcome in the comments.
---
**Installation Instructions:**
1. Add the indicator to your TradingView chart
2. Adjust the table position via settings to avoid overlap with price action
3. Customize SMA lengths and lookback periods to match your trading style
4. Monitor the table for timeframe alignment and trend confirmation
---
This indicator is published as open source for the community to learn from and improve upon. Happy trading! 📈
Zarks 4H Range, 15M Triggers Pt2🕓 4-Hour Structure Dividers ⏰
📈 Vertical lines represent each 4-hour candle broken down into smaller execution timeframes — perfect for aligning entries across 15-minute, 5-minute, and 1-minute charts.
🧭 The lines remain true and synchronized with the 4-hour structure, ensuring timing accuracy:
⏱ 15-Minute: Lines appear at :45 of each corresponding hour
⚙️ 5-Minute: Lines appear at :55 of each corresponding hour
🔹 1-Minute: Lines appear at :59 of each corresponding hour
🎯 Use these precise vertical dividers to visualize higher-timeframe structure while executing on lower-timeframe setups — ideal for confluence traders combining HTF bias with LTF precision.
Zarks 4H Range, 15M Triggers Pt1HTF Dividers + 4H Candle Structure + CRT Reference Tool
🔹 Vertical Blue Lines → represent divisions of the 4-hour timeframe, helping you visually segment intraday structure into HTF blocks.
Green Dotted Line → marks the High of each 4-hour interval.
🔵 Blue Dotted Line → shows the Open of that 4-hour interval.
⚫ Gray Dotted Line → displays the Close of that 4-hour interval.
🔴 Red Dotted Line → highlights the Low of that 4-hour interval.
💡 CRT Concepts (Candle Range Theory by Romeo TPT)
CRT signals are not direct buy/sell signals ❌💰 — they serve as contextual reference points 🧭.
A high-probability setup often appears when:
A 4H sweep of a previous candle’s high occurs 🐢 (liquidity manipulation),
Followed by a bearish 15-minute close,
Targeting the 50% retracement of that 4H candle’s range 🎯.
📊 Use this tool to frame market structure across timeframes, align entries with liquidity events, and visualize when price may be expanding from or reverting to institutional reference points.
This indicator is meant to be combined with vertical lines on the 15 min time frame at corresponding times example 1:45,4:45,9:45
Sessions High/Low with Break LogicSessions High/Low with Break Logic – Indicator Description
Update 27.10.25
Overview
This indicator marks the highs and lows of key trading sessions (Tokyo, London, New York) and highlights when these levels are broken. It is ideal for traders using session-based strategies to monitor breakouts or support/resistance levels in real time.
Key Features
Session-Based Highs/Lows:
Tracks highs and lows for three trading sessions:
Tokyo: 02:00–09:00 (UTC+1)
London: 09:00–17:00 (UTC+1)
New York: 15:30–22:00 (UTC+1)
Break Logic:
Detects when the current price breaks a session high or low.
Labels are updated with a "Break" note when a level is breached.
Visual Display:
Draws horizontal lines for highs and lows of each session.
Adds labels with values (optionally including price).
Colors are customizable for each session:
Tokyo: Purple
London: Teal
New York: Orange
Customizable Settings:
Horizontal Offset: Shifts lines and labels horizontally for clarity.
Time Zone: Adjustable to UTC+1 (default).
Price Display: Option to show the exact price next to the label.
Settings and Translations
Display Settings
Horizontal Offset: Horizontal shift for lines and labels.
Show Price with Text: Displays the price next to the label (e.g., "London High: 123.45").
Time Settings
UTC: Time zone (default: UTC+1).
Session 1 (Tokyo)
Session 1: 02:00–09:00
High Text: "Tokyo High"
Low Text: "Tokyo Low"
High Color: Purple
Low Color: Purple
Session 2 (London)
Session 2: 09:00–17:00
High Text: "London High"
Low Text: "London Low"
High Color: Teal
Low Color: Teal
Session 3 (New York)
Session 3: 15:30–22:00
High Text: "New York High"
Low Text: "New York Low"
High Color: Orange
Low Color: Orange
Momentum Breakout Filter + ATR ZonesMomentum Breakout Filter + ATR Zones - User Guide
What This Indicator Does
This indicator helps you with your MACD + volume momentum strategy by:
Filtering out fake breakouts - Shows ⚠️ warnings when breakouts lack confirmation
Showing clear entry signals - 🚀 LONG and 🔻 SHORT labels when all conditions align
Automatic stop loss & profit targets - Based on ATR (Average True Range)
Visual trend confirmation - Background color + EMA alignment
Signal Types
🚀 LONG Entry Signal (Green Label)
Appears when ALL conditions met:
✅ MACD crosses above signal line
✅ Volume > 1.5× average
✅ Price > EMA 9 > EMA 21 > EMA 200 (bullish trend)
✅ Price closes above recent 20-bar high
🔻 SHORT Entry Signal (Red Label)
Appears when ALL conditions met:
✅ MACD crosses below signal line
✅ Volume > 1.5× average
✅ Price < EMA 9 < EMA 21 < EMA 200 (bearish trend)
✅ Price closes below recent 20-bar low
⚠️ FAKE Breakout Warning (Orange Label)
Appears when price breaks high/low BUT lacks confirmation:
❌ Low volume (below 1.5× average), OR
❌ Wick break only (didn't close through level), OR
❌ MACD not aligned with direction
Hover over the warning label to see what's missing!
ATR Stop Loss & Targets
When you get a signal, colored lines automatically appear:
Long Position
Red solid line = Stop Loss (Entry - 1.5×ATR)
Green dashed lines = Profit Targets:
Target 1: Entry + 2×ATR
Target 2: Entry + 3×ATR
Target 3: Entry + 4×ATR
Short Position
Red solid line = Stop Loss (Entry + 1.5×ATR)
Green dashed lines = Profit Targets:
Target 1: Entry - 2×ATR
Target 2: Entry - 3×ATR
Target 3: Entry - 4×ATR
The lines move with each bar until you exit the position.
Chart Elements
Moving Averages
Blue line = EMA 9 (fast)
Orange line = EMA 21 (medium)
White line = EMA 200 (trend filter)
Volume
Yellow bars = High volume (above threshold)
Gray bars = Normal volume
Background Color
Light green = Bullish trend (all EMAs aligned up)
Light red = Bearish trend (all EMAs aligned down)
No color = Neutral/mixed
MACD (Bottom Pane)
Green/Red columns = MACD Histogram
Blue line = MACD Line
Orange line = Signal Line
Info Dashboard (Bottom Right)
ItemWhat It ShowsVolumeCurrent volume vs average (✓ HIGH or ✗ Low)MACDDirection (BULLISH or BEARISH)TrendEMA alignment (BULL, BEAR, or NEUTRAL)ATRCurrent ATR value in dollarsPositionCurrent position (LONG, SHORT, or NONE)R:RRisk-to-Reward ratio (shows when in position)
How To Use It
Basic Workflow
Wait for setup
Watch for MACD to approach signal line
Volume should be building
Price should be near EMA structure
Get confirmation
Wait for 🚀 LONG or 🔻 SHORT label
Check dashboard shows "✓ HIGH" volume
Verify trend is aligned (green or red background)
Enter the trade
Enter when signal appears
Note your stop loss (red line)
Note your targets (green dashed lines)
Manage the trade
Exit at first target for partial profit
Move stop to breakeven
Trail remaining position
What To Avoid
❌ Don't trade when you see:
⚠️ FAKE labels (wait for confirmation)
Neutral background (no clear trend)
"✗ Low" volume in dashboard
MACD and Trend not aligned
Settings You Can Adjust
Volume Sensitivity
High Volume Threshold: Default 1.5×
Increase to 2.0× for cleaner signals (fewer trades)
Decrease to 1.2× for more signals (more trades)
Fake Breakout Filters
You can toggle these ON/OFF:
Volume Confirmation: Requires high volume
Close Through: Requires candle close, not just wick
MACD Alignment: Requires MACD direction match
Tip: Turn all three ON for highest quality signals
ATR Stop/Target Multipliers
Default settings (conservative):
Stop Loss: 1.5×ATR
Target 1: 2×ATR (1.33:1 R:R)
Target 2: 3×ATR (2:1 R:R)
Target 3: 4×ATR (2.67:1 R:R)
Aggressive traders might use:
Stop Loss: 1.0×ATR
Target 1: 2×ATR (2:1 R:R)
Target 2: 4×ATR (4:1 R:R)
Conservative traders might use:
Stop Loss: 2.0×ATR
Target 1: 3×ATR (1.5:1 R:R)
Target 2: 5×ATR (2.5:1 R:R)
Example Trade Scenarios
Scenario 1: Perfect Long Setup ✅
Stock consolidating near EMA 21
MACD curling up toward signal line
Volume bar turns yellow (high volume)
🚀 LONG label appears
Red stop line and green target lines appear
Result: High probability trade
Scenario 2: Fake Breakout Avoided ✅
Price breaks above resistance
Volume is normal (gray bar)
⚠️ FAKE label appears (hover shows "Low volume")
No entry signal
Price falls back below breakout level
Result: Avoided losing trade
Scenario 3: Premature Entry ❌
MACD crosses up
Volume is high
BUT trend is NEUTRAL (no background color)
No signal appears (trend filter blocks it)
Result: Avoided choppy/sideways market
Quick Reference
Entry Checklist
🚀 or 🔻 label on chart
Dashboard shows "✓ HIGH" volume
Dashboard shows aligned MACD + Trend
Colored background (green or red)
ATR lines visible
No ⚠️ FAKE warning
Exit Strategy
Target 1 (2×ATR): Take 50% profit, move stop to breakeven
Target 2 (3×ATR): Take 25% profit, trail stop
Target 3 (4×ATR): Take remaining profit or trail aggressively
Stop Loss: Exit entire position if hit
Alerts
Set up these alerts:
Long Entry: Fires when 🚀 LONG signal appears
Short Entry: Fires when 🔻 SHORT signal appears
Fake Breakout Warning: Fires when ⚠️ appears (optional)
Tips for Success
Use on 5-minute charts for day trading momentum plays
Only trade high volume stocks ($5-20 range works best)
Wait for full confirmation - don't jump early
Respect the stop loss - it's calculated based on volatility
Scale out at targets - don't hold for home runs
Avoid trading first 15 minutes - let market settle
Best during 10am-11am and 2pm-3pm - peak momentum times
Common Questions
Q: Why didn't I get a signal even though MACD crossed?
A: All conditions must be met - check dashboard for what's missing (likely volume or trend alignment)
Q: Can I use this on any timeframe?
A: Yes, but it's designed for 5-15 minute charts. On daily charts, adjust ATR multipliers higher.
Q: The stop loss seems too tight, can I widen it?
A: Yes, increase "Stop Loss (×ATR)" from 1.5 to 2.0 or 2.5 in settings.
Q: I keep seeing FAKE warnings but price keeps going - what gives?
A: The filter is conservative. You can disable some filters in settings, but expect more false signals.
Q: Can I use this for swing trading?
A: Yes, but use larger timeframes (1H or 4H) and adjust ATR multipliers up (3× for stops, 6-9× for targets).
Liquidity Grab + RSI Divergence═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
LIQUIDITY GRAB + RSI DIVERGENCE INDICATOR
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
📌 OVERVIEW
This indicator identifies high-probability reversals by combining:
• Liquidity sweeps (stop hunts)
• RSI divergence confirmation
• Filters false breakouts automatically
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
🟢 BUY SIGNAL (Green Triangle Up)
REQUIRES BOTH CONDITIONS:
1. Liquidity Grab Below Previous Low
• Price breaks BELOW recent low
• Candle CLOSES ABOVE that low
• Traps sellers who shorted the breakdown
2. Bullish RSI Divergence
• Price: Lower Low (LL)
• RSI: Higher Low (HL)
• Shows weakening downward momentum
➜ Result: Potential bullish reversal
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
🔴 SELL SIGNAL (Red Triangle Down)
REQUIRES BOTH CONDITIONS:
1. Liquidity Grab Above Previous High
• Price breaks ABOVE recent high
• Candle CLOSES BELOW that high
• Traps buyers who bought the breakout
2. Bearish RSI Divergence
• Price: Higher High (HH)
• RSI: Lower High (LH)
• Shows weakening upward momentum
➜ Result: Potential bearish reversal
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
📊 VISUAL INDICATORS
Main Signals:
🔺 Large Green Triangle = BUY (Liq Grab + Bullish Div)
🔻 Large Red Triangle = SELL (Liq Grab + Bearish Div)
Reference Levels:
━ Red Line = Previous High Level
━ Green Line = Previous Low Level
Additional Markers (Optional):
○ Small Green Circle = Liquidity grab low only
○ Small Red Circle = Liquidity grab high only
✕ Small Blue Cross = Bullish divergence only
✕ Small Orange Cross = Bearish divergence only
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
⚙️ SETTINGS
1. Lookback Period (Default: 20)
• Range: 5-100
• Sets how far back to identify previous highs/lows
• Higher = fewer but stronger levels
• Lower = more frequent but weaker levels
2. RSI Length (Default: 14)
• Range: 5-50
• Standard RSI calculation period
• 14 is industry standard
3. RSI Divergence Lookback (Default: 5)
• Range: 3-20
• Controls pivot point sensitivity
• Higher = fewer divergence signals
• Lower = more divergence signals
4. Show Labels (Default: ON)
• Toggle BUY/SELL text labels
• Disable for cleaner chart view
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
💡 HOW TO USE
Step 1: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION
• Only trade LARGE TRIANGLE signals
• Ignore small circles/crosses alone
Step 2: CHECK TIMEFRAME
• Best on: 15min, 1H, 4H, Daily
• Avoid: 1min, 5min (too noisy)
Step 3: CONFIRM CONTEXT
• Check overall market trend
• Identify key support/resistance
• Look for confluence with price action
Step 4: ENTRY & RISK MANAGEMENT
• Enter on signal candle close or pullback
• Stop loss below/above the liquidity grab wick
• Target: Previous swing high/low or key levels
• Risk/Reward: Minimum 1:2 ratio
Step 5: SET ALERTS
• Create alert for "BUY Signal"
• Create alert for "SELL Signal"
• Never miss opportunities
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
✅ BEST PRACTICES
DO:
✓ Use on multiple timeframes for confluence
✓ Combine with support/resistance zones
✓ Wait for both conditions (liq grab + divergence)
✓ Practice on demo account first
✓ Use proper position sizing
DON'T:
✗ Trade every small circle/cross
✗ Use on very low timeframes (<15min)
✗ Ignore overall market context
✗ Trade without stop loss
✗ Risk more than 1-2% per trade
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES
• This is a CONFIRMATION tool, not a holy grail
• No indicator is 100% accurate
• Combine with your trading strategy
• Backtest on your preferred instruments
• Adjust parameters for your trading style
• Higher timeframes = more reliable signals
• Always use risk management
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
🔔 ALERTS INCLUDED
Two alert conditions are built-in:
1. "BUY Signal" - Liquidity Grab + Bullish RSI Divergence
2. "SELL Signal" - Liquidity Grab + Bearish RSI Divergence
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
📈 RECOMMENDED SETTINGS BY TIMEFRAME
5-15 Min Charts:
• Lookback: 10-15
• RSI Length: 14
• RSI Div Lookback: 3-5
1H-4H Charts:
• Lookback: 20-30
• RSI Length: 14
• RSI Div Lookback: 5-7
Daily Charts:
• Lookback: 30-50
• RSI Length: 14
• RSI Div Lookback: 7-10
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Good luck and trade safe! 🚀
PG ATM Strike Line with Call & Put PremiumsPine Script: ATM Strike Line with Call & Put Premiums (Simplified)This Pine Script for TradingView displays the At-The-Money (ATM) strike price, futures price, call/put premiums (time value), and two ratios—Premium Ratio (PR) and Volume Ratio (VR)—for a user-selected underlying asset (e.g., NIFTY, BANKNIFTY, or stocks). It helps traders gauge near-term market direction using options data.How the Script WorksInputs:Expiry: Select year (e.g., '25), month (01–12), day (01–31) for option expiry (e.g., '251028').
Timeframe: Choose data timeframe (e.g., Daily, 15-min).
Symbol: Auto-detects chart symbol or select from Indian indices/stocks.
Strike: Auto-ATM (based on futures) or manual strike input.
Interval: Auto (e.g., 100 for NIFTY) or custom strike interval.
Colors: Customizable for ATM line, labels (Futures Price, CPR, PPR, VR, PR).
Calculations:Futures Price (FP): Fetches front-month futures price (e.g., NSE:NIFTY1!).
ATM Strike: Rounds futures price to nearest strike interval.
Option Data: Retrieves Last Traded Price (LTP) and volume for ATM call/put options (e.g., NSE:NIFTY251028C24200).
Call Premium (CPR): Call LTP minus intrinsic value (max(0, FP - Strike)).
Put Premium (PPR): Put LTP minus intrinsic value (max(0, Strike - FP)).
Premium Ratio (PR): PPR / CPR.
Volume Ratio (VR): Put Volume / Call Volume.
Visuals:Draws ATM strike line on chart.
Displays labels: FP (futures price), CPR (call premium), PPR (put premium), VR, PR.
VR/PR labels: Red (≥ 1.25, bearish), Green (≤ 0.75, bullish), Gray (0.75–1.25, neutral).
Updates on last confirmed bar to avoid redraws.
Using PR and VR for Market DirectionPremium Ratio (PR):PR ≥ 1.25 (Red): High put premiums suggest bearish sentiment (expect price drop).
PR ≤ 0.75 (Green): High call premiums suggest bullish sentiment (expect price rise).
0.75 < PR < 1.25 (Gray): Neutral, no clear direction.
Use: High PR favors bearish trades (e.g., buy puts); low PR favors bullish trades (e.g., buy calls).
Volume Ratio (VR):VR ≥ 1.25 (Red): High put volume indicates bearish activity.
VR ≤ 0.75 (Green): High call volume indicates bullish activity.
0.75 < VR < 1.25 (Gray): Neutral trading activity.
Use: High VR suggests bearish moves; low VR suggests bullish moves.
Combined Signals:High PR & VR: Strong bearish signal; consider put buying or call selling.
Low PR & VR: Strong bullish signal; consider call buying or put selling.
Mixed/Neutral: Use price action or support/resistance for confirmation.
Tips:Combine with technical analysis (e.g., trends, levels).
Match timeframe to trading horizon (e.g., 15-min for intraday).
Monitor FP for context; check volatility or news for accuracy.
ExampleNIFTY: FP = 24,237.50, ATM = 24,200, CPR = 120.25, PPR = 180.50, PR = 1.50 (Red), VR = 1.30 (Red).
Insight: High PR/VR suggests bearish bias; consider bearish trades if price nears resistance.
Action: Buy puts or exit longs, confirm with price action.
Conclusion: This script provides a concise tool for options traders, showing ATM strike, premiums, and PR/VR ratios. High PR/VR (≥ 1.25) signals bearish sentiment, low PR/VR (≤ 0.75) signals bullish sentiment, and neutral (0.75–1.25) suggests indecision. Combine with technical analysis for robust trading decisions in the Indian options market.
COT IndexTHE HIDDEN INTELLIGENCE IN FUTURES MARKETS
What if you could see what the smartest players in the futures markets are doing before the crowd catches on? While retail traders chase momentum indicators and moving averages, obsess over Japanese candlestick patterns, and debate whether the RSI should be set to fourteen or twenty-one periods, institutional players leave footprints in the sand through their mandatory reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These footprints, published weekly in the Commitment of Traders reports, have been hiding in plain sight for decades, available to anyone with an internet connection, yet remarkably few traders understand how to interpret them correctly. The COT Index indicator transforms this raw institutional positioning data into actionable trading signals, bringing Wall Street intelligence to your trading screen without requiring expensive Bloomberg terminals or insider connections.
The uncomfortable truth is this: Most retail traders operate in a binary world. Long or short. Buy or sell. They apply technical analysis to individual positions, constrained by limited capital that forces them to concentrate risk in single directional bets. Meanwhile, institutional traders operate in an entirely different dimension. They manage portfolios dynamically weighted across multiple markets, adjusting exposure based on evolving market conditions, correlation shifts, and risk assessments that retail traders never see. A hedge fund might be simultaneously long gold, short oil, neutral on copper, and overweight agricultural commodities, with position sizes calibrated to volatility and portfolio Greeks. When they increase gold exposure from five percent to eight percent of portfolio allocation, this rebalancing decision reflects sophisticated analysis of opportunity cost, risk parity, and cross-market dynamics that no individual chart pattern can capture.
This portfolio reweighting activity, multiplied across hundreds of institutional participants, manifests in the aggregate positioning data published weekly by the CFTC. The Commitment of Traders report does not show individual trades or strategies. It shows the collective footprint of how actual commercial hedgers and large speculators have allocated their capital across different markets. When mining companies collectively increase forward gold sales to hedge thirty percent more production than last quarter, they are not reacting to a moving average crossover. They are making strategic allocation decisions based on production forecasts, cost structures, and price expectations derived from operational realities invisible to outside observers. This is portfolio management in action, revealed through positioning data rather than price charts.
If you want to understand how institutional capital actually flows, how sophisticated traders genuinely position themselves across market cycles, the COT report provides a rare window into that hidden world. But understand what you are getting into. This is not a tool for scalpers seeking confirmation of the next five-minute move. This is not an oscillator that flashes oversold at market bottoms with convenient precision. COT analysis operates on a timescale measured in weeks and months, revealing positioning shifts that precede major market turns but offer no precision timing. The data arrives three days stale, published only once per week, capturing strategic positioning rather than tactical entries.
If you need instant gratification, if you trade intraday moves, if you demand mechanical signals with ninety percent accuracy, close this document now. COT analysis rewards patience, position sizing discipline, and tolerance for being early. It punishes impatience, overleveraging, and the expectation that any single indicator can substitute for market understanding.
The premise is deceptively simple. Every Tuesday, large traders in futures markets must report their positions to the CFTC. By Friday afternoon, this data becomes public. Academic research spanning three decades has consistently shown that not all market participants are created equal. Some traders consistently profit while others consistently lose. Some anticipate major turning points while others chase trends into exhaustion. Bessembinder and Chan (1992) demonstrated in their seminal study that commercial hedgers, those with actual exposure to the underlying commodity or financial instrument, possess superior forecasting ability compared to speculators. Their research, published in the Journal of Finance, found statistically significant predictive power in commercial positioning, particularly at extreme levels. This finding challenged the efficient market hypothesis and opened the door to a new approach to market analysis based on positioning rather than price alone.
Think about what this means. Every week, the government publishes a report showing you exactly how the most informed market participants are positioned. Not their opinions. Not their predictions. Their actual money at risk. When agricultural producers collectively hold their largest short hedge in five years, they are not making idle speculation. They are locking in prices for crops they will harvest, informed by private knowledge of weather conditions, soil quality, inventory levels, and demand expectations invisible to outside observers. When energy companies aggressively hedge forward production at current prices, they reveal information about expected supply that no analyst report can capture. This is not technical analysis based on past prices. This is not fundamental analysis based on publicly available data. This is behavioral analysis based on how the smartest money is actually positioned, how institutions allocate capital across portfolios, and how those allocation decisions shift as market conditions evolve.
WHY SOME TRADERS KNOW MORE THAN OTHERS
Building on this foundation, Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) conducted extensive research examining the behaviour patterns of different trader categories. Their work, which analyzed over a decade of COT data across multiple commodity markets, revealed a fascinating dynamic that challenges much of what retail traders are taught. Commercial hedgers consistently positioned themselves against market extremes, buying when speculators were most bearish and selling when speculators reached peak bullishness. The contrarian positioning of commercials was not random noise but rather reflected their superior information about supply and demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, large speculators, primarily hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, exhibited strong trend-following behaviour that often amplified market moves beyond fundamental values. Small traders, the retail participants, consistently entered positions late in trends, frequently near turning points, making them reliable contrary indicators.
Wang (2003) extended this research by demonstrating that the predictive power of commercial positioning varies significantly across different commodity sectors. His analysis of agricultural commodities showed particularly strong forecasting ability, with commercial net positions explaining up to fifteen percent of return variance in subsequent weeks. This finding suggests that the informational advantages of hedgers are most pronounced in markets where physical supply and demand fundamentals dominate, as opposed to purely financial markets where information asymmetries are smaller. When a corn farmer hedges six months of expected harvest, that decision incorporates private observations about rainfall patterns, crop health, pest pressure, and local storage capacity that no distant analyst can match. When an oil refinery hedges crude oil purchases and gasoline sales simultaneously, the spread relationships reveal expectations about refining margins that reflect operational realities invisible in public data.
The theoretical mechanism underlying these empirical patterns relates to information asymmetry and different participant motivations. Commercial hedgers engage in futures markets not for speculative profit but to manage business risks. An agricultural producer selling forward six months of expected harvest is not making a bet on price direction but rather locking in revenue to facilitate financial planning and ensure business viability. However, this hedging activity necessarily incorporates private information about expected supply, inventory levels, weather conditions, and demand trends that the hedger observes through their commercial operations (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). When aggregated across many participants, this private information manifests in collective positioning.
Consider a gold mining company deciding how much forward production to hedge. Management must estimate ore grades, recovery rates, production costs, equipment reliability, labor availability, and dozens of other operational variables that determine whether locking in prices at current levels makes business sense. If the industry collectively hedges more aggressively than usual, it suggests either exceptional production expectations or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Either way, this positioning reveals information unavailable to speculators analyzing price charts and economic data. The hedger sees the physical reality behind the financial abstraction.
Large speculators operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Commodity Trading Advisors managing billions in assets typically employ systematic, trend-following strategies that respond to price momentum rather than fundamental supply and demand. When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to seventy dollars per barrel, these systems generate buy signals. As the rally continues to eighty dollars, position sizes increase. The strategy works brilliantly during sustained trends but becomes a liability at reversals. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the rally. At this point, they represent not smart money anticipating further gains but rather crowded money vulnerable to reversal. Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) documented this pattern across multiple energy markets, showing that extreme speculator positioning typically marked late-stage trend exhaustion rather than early-stage trend development.
Small traders, the retail participants who fall below reporting thresholds, display the weakest forecasting ability. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns, meaning their aggregate positioning served as a reliable contrary indicator. The explanation combines several factors. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, entering trends after mainstream media coverage when institutional participants are preparing to exit. Perhaps most importantly, they trade with emotion, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times.
At major turning points, the three groups often position opposite each other with commercials extremely bearish, large speculators extremely bullish, and small traders piling into longs at the last moment. These high-divergence environments frequently precede increased volatility and trend reversals. The insiders with business exposure quietly exit as the momentum traders hit maximum capacity and retail enthusiasm peaks. Within weeks, the reversal begins, and positions unwind in the opposite sequence.
FROM RAW DATA TO ACTIONABLE SIGNALS
The COT Index indicator operationalizes these academic findings into a practical trading tool accessible through TradingView. At its core, the indicator normalizes net positioning data onto a zero to one hundred scale, creating what we call the COT Index. This normalization is critical because absolute position sizes vary dramatically across different futures contracts and over time. A commercial trader holding fifty thousand contracts net long in crude oil might be extremely bullish by historical standards, or it might be quite neutral depending on the context of total market size and historical ranges. Raw position numbers mean nothing without context. The COT Index solves this problem by calculating where current positioning stands relative to its range over a specified lookback period, typically two hundred fifty-two weeks or approximately five years of weekly data.
The mathematical transformation follows the methodology originally popularized by legendary trader Larry Williams, though the underlying concept appears in statistical normalization techniques across many fields. For any given trader category, we calculate the highest and lowest net position values over the lookback period, establishing the historical range for that specific market and trader group. Current positioning is then expressed as a percentage of this range, where zero represents the most bearish positioning ever seen in the lookback window and one hundred represents the most bullish extreme. A reading of fifty indicates positioning exactly in the middle of the historical range, suggesting neither extreme optimism nor pessimism relative to recent history (Williams and Noseworthy, 2009).
This index-based approach allows for meaningful comparison across different markets and time periods, overcoming the scaling problems inherent in analyzing raw position data. A commercial index reading of eighty-five in gold carries the same interpretive meaning as an eighty-five reading in wheat or crude oil, even though the absolute position sizes differ by orders of magnitude. This standardization enables systematic analysis across entire futures portfolios rather than requiring market-specific expertise for each contract.
The lookback period selection involves a fundamental tradeoff between responsiveness and stability. Shorter lookback periods, perhaps one hundred twenty-six weeks or approximately two and a half years, make the index more sensitive to recent positioning changes. However, it also increases noise and produces more false signals. Longer lookback periods, perhaps five hundred weeks or approximately ten years, create smoother readings that filter short-term noise but become slower to recognize regime changes. The indicator settings allow users to adjust this parameter based on their trading timeframe, risk tolerance, and market characteristics.
UNDERSTANDING CFTC DATA STRUCTURES
The indicator supports both Legacy and Disaggregated COT report formats, reflecting the evolution of CFTC reporting standards over decades of market development. Legacy reports categorize market participants into three broad groups: commercial traders (hedgers with underlying business exposure), non-commercial traders (large speculators seeking profit without commercial interest), and non-reportable traders (small speculators below reporting thresholds). Each category brings distinct motivations and information advantages to the market (CFTC, 2020).
The Disaggregated reports, introduced in September 2009 for physical commodity markets, provide finer granularity by splitting participants into five categories (CFTC, 2009). Producer and merchant positions capture those actually producing, processing, or merchandising the physical commodity. Swap dealers represent financial intermediaries facilitating derivative transactions for clients. Managed money includes commodity trading advisors and hedge funds executing systematic or discretionary strategies. Other reportables encompasses diverse participants not fitting the main categories. Small traders remain as the fifth group, representing retail participation.
This enhanced categorization reveals nuances invisible in Legacy reports, particularly distinguishing between different types of institutional capital and their distinct behavioural patterns. The indicator automatically detects which report type is appropriate for each futures contract and adjusts the display accordingly.
Importantly, Disaggregated reports exist only for physical commodity futures. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans have Disaggregated reports because clear producer, merchant, and swap dealer categories exist. Energy commodities like crude oil and natural gas similarly have well-defined commercial hedger categories. Metals including gold, silver, and copper also receive Disaggregated treatment (CFTC, 2009). However, financial futures such as equity index futures, Treasury bond futures, and currency futures remain available only in Legacy format. The CFTC has indicated no plans to extend Disaggregated reporting to financial futures due to different market structures and participant categories in these instruments (CFTC, 2020).
THE BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION
Understanding which trader perspective to follow requires appreciation of their distinct trading styles, success rates, and psychological profiles. Commercial hedgers exhibit anticyclical behaviour rooted in their fundamental knowledge and business imperatives. When agricultural producers hedge forward sales during harvest season, they are not speculating on price direction but rather locking in revenue for crops they will harvest. Their business requires converting volatile commodity exposure into predictable cash flows to facilitate planning and ensure survival through difficult periods. Yet their aggregate positioning reveals valuable information because these hedging decisions incorporate private information about supply conditions, inventory levels, weather observations, and demand expectations that hedgers observe through their commercial operations (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992).
Consider a practical example from energy markets. Major oil companies continuously hedge portions of forward production based on price levels, operational costs, and financial planning needs. When crude oil trades at ninety dollars per barrel, they might aggressively hedge the next twelve months of production, locking in prices that provide comfortable profit margins above their extraction costs. This hedging appears as short positioning in COT reports. If oil rallies further to one hundred dollars, they hedge even more aggressively, viewing these prices as exceptional opportunities to secure revenue. Their short positioning grows increasingly extreme. To an outside observer watching only price charts, the rally suggests bullishness. But the commercial positioning reveals that the actual producers of oil find these prices attractive enough to lock in years of sales, suggesting skepticism about sustaining even higher levels. When the eventual reversal occurs and oil declines back to eighty dollars, the commercials who hedged at ninety and one hundred dollars profit while speculators who chased the rally suffer losses.
Large speculators or managed money traders operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Their systematic, momentum-driven strategies mean they amplify existing trends rather than anticipate reversals. Trend-following systems, the most common approach among large speculators, by definition require confirmation of trend through price momentum before entering positions (Sanders, Boris and Manfredo, 2004). When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to eighty dollars per barrel over several months, trend-following algorithms generate buy signals based on moving average crossovers, breakouts, and other momentum indicators. As the rally continues, position sizes increase according to the systematic rules.
However, this approach becomes a liability at turning points. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars after a sustained rally, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the move. At this point, their positioning does not predict continued strength. Rather, it often marks late-stage trend exhaustion. The psychological and mechanical explanation is straightforward. Trend followers by definition chase price momentum, entering positions after trends establish rather than anticipating them. Eventually, they become fully invested just as the trend nears completion, leaving no incremental buying power to sustain the rally. When the first signs of reversal appear, systematic stops trigger, creating a cascade of selling that accelerates the downturn.
Small traders consistently display the weakest track record across academic studies. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns in his analysis across multiple commodity markets. This result means that whatever small traders collectively do, the opposite typically proves profitable. The explanation for small trader underperformance combines several factors documented in behavioral finance literature. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, learning about commodity trends through mainstream media coverage that arrives after institutional participants have already positioned. Perhaps most importantly, retail traders are more susceptible to emotional decision-making, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times (Tharp, 2008).
SETTINGS, THRESHOLDS, AND SIGNAL GENERATION
The practical implementation of the COT Index requires understanding several key features and settings that users can adjust to match their trading style, timeframe, and risk tolerance. The lookback period determines the time window for calculating historical ranges. The default setting of two hundred fifty-two bars represents approximately one year on daily charts or five years on weekly charts, balancing responsiveness with stability. Conservative traders seeking only the most extreme, highest-probability signals might extend the lookback to five hundred bars or more. Aggressive traders seeking earlier entry and willing to accept more false positives might reduce it to one hundred twenty-six bars or even less for shorter-term applications.
The bullish and bearish thresholds define signal generation levels. Default settings of eighty and twenty respectively reflect academic research suggesting meaningful information content at these extremes. Readings above eighty indicate positioning in the top quintile of the historical range, representing genuine extremes rather than temporary fluctuations. Conversely, readings below twenty occupy the bottom quintile, indicating unusually bearish positioning (Briese, 2008).
However, traders must recognize that appropriate thresholds vary by market, trader category, and personal risk tolerance. Some futures markets exhibit wider positioning swings than others due to seasonal patterns, volatility characteristics, or participant behavior. Conservative traders seeking high-probability setups with fewer signals might raise thresholds to eighty-five and fifteen. Aggressive traders willing to accept more false positives for earlier entry could lower them to seventy-five and twenty-five.
The key is maintaining meaningful differentiation between bullish, neutral, and bearish zones. The default settings of eighty and twenty create a clear three-zone structure. Readings from zero to twenty represent bearish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bearish positions. Readings from twenty to eighty represent neutral territory where positioning falls within normal historical ranges. Readings from eighty to one hundred represent bullish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bullish positions.
The trading perspective selection determines which participant group the indicator follows, fundamentally shaping interpretation and signal meaning. For counter-trend traders seeking reversal opportunities, monitoring commercial positioning makes intuitive sense based on the academic research discussed earlier. When commercials reach extreme bearish readings below twenty, indicating unprecedented short positioning relative to recent history, they are effectively betting against the crowd. Given their informational advantages demonstrated by Bessembinder and Chan (1992), this contrarian stance often precedes major bottoms.
Trend followers might instead monitor large speculator positioning, but with inverted logic compared to commercials. When managed money reaches extreme bullish readings above eighty, the trend may be exhausting rather than accelerating. This seeming paradox reflects their late-cycle participation documented by Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004). Sophisticated traders thus use speculator extremes as fade signals, entering positions opposite to speculator consensus.
Small trader monitoring serves primarily as a contrary indicator for all trading styles. Extreme small trader bullishness above seventy-five or eighty typically warns of retail FOMO at market tops. Extreme small trader bearishness below twenty or twenty-five often marks capitulation bottoms where the last weak hands have sold.
VISUALIZATION AND USER INTERFACE
The visual design incorporates multiple elements working together to facilitate decision-making and maintain situational awareness during active trading. The primary COT Index line plots in bold with adjustable line width, defaulting to two pixels for clear visibility against busy price charts. An optional glow effect, controlled by a simple toggle, adds additional visual prominence through multiple plot layers with progressively increasing transparency and width.
A twenty-one period exponential moving average overlays the index line, providing trend context for positioning changes. When the index crosses above its moving average, it signals accelerating bullish sentiment among the selected trader group regardless of whether absolute positioning is extreme. Conversely, when the index crosses below its moving average, it signals deteriorating sentiment and potentially the beginning of a reversal in positioning trends.
The EMA provides a dynamic reference line for assessing positioning momentum. When the index trades far above its EMA, positioning is not only extreme in absolute terms but also building with momentum. When the index trades far below its EMA, positioning is contracting or reversing, which may indicate weakening conviction even if absolute levels remain elevated.
The data table positioned at the top right of the chart displays eleven metrics for each trader category, transforming the indicator from a simple index calculation into an analytical dashboard providing multidimensional market intelligence. Beyond the COT Index itself, users can monitor positioning extremity, which measures how unusual current levels are compared to historical norms using statistical techniques. The extremity metric clarifies whether a reading represents the ninety-fifth or ninety-ninth percentile, with values above two standard deviations indicating genuinely exceptional positioning.
Market power quantifies each group's influence on total open interest. This metric expresses each trader category's net position as a percentage of total market open interest. A commercial entity holding forty percent of total open interest commands significantly more influence than one holding five percent, making their positioning signals more meaningful.
Momentum and rate of change metrics reveal whether positions are building or contracting, providing early warning of potential regime shifts. Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative providing even earlier insight into inflection points.
Sentiment divergence highlights disagreements between commercial and speculative positioning. This metric calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available, showing how positioning is distributed among the largest handful of traders in each category. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation across many traders.
THE ALERT SYSTEM AND MONITORING
The alert system, comprising five distinct alert conditions, enables systematic monitoring of dozens of futures markets without constant screen watching. The bullish and bearish COT signal alerts trigger when the index crosses user-defined thresholds, indicating the selected trader group has reached extreme positioning worthy of attention. These alerts fire in real-time as new weekly COT data publishes, typically Friday afternoon following the Tuesday measurement date.
Extreme positioning alerts fire at ninety and ten index levels, representing the top and bottom ten percent of the historical range, warning of particularly stretched readings that historically precede reversals with high probability. When commercials reach a COT Index reading below ten, they are expressing their most bearish stance in the entire lookback period.
The data staleness alert notifies users when COT reports have not updated for more than ten days, preventing reliance on outdated information for trading decisions. Government shutdowns or federal holidays can interrupt the normal Friday publication schedule. Using stale signals while believing them current creates dangerous false confidence.
The indicator's watermark information display positioned in the bottom right corner provides essential context at a glance. This persistent display shows the symbol and timeframe, the COT report date timestamp, days since last update, and the current signal state. A trader analyzing a potential short entry in crude oil can glance at the watermark to instantly confirm positioning context without interrupting analysis flow.
LIMITATIONS AND REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Practical application requires understanding both the indicator's considerable strengths and inherent limitations. COT data inherently lags price action by three days, as Tuesday positions are not published until Friday afternoon. This delay means the indicator cannot catch rapid intraday reversals or respond to surprise news events. Traders using the COT Index for timing entries must accept this latency and focus on swing trading and position trading timeframes where three-day lags matter less than in day trading or scalping.
The weekly publication schedule similarly makes the indicator unsuitable for short-term trading strategies requiring immediate feedback. The COT Index works best for traders operating on weekly or longer timeframes, where positioning shifts measured in weeks and months align with trading horizon.
Extreme COT readings can persist far longer than typical technical indicators suggest, testing the patience and capital reserves of traders attempting to fade them. When crude oil enters a sustained bull market driven by genuine supply disruptions, commercial hedgers may maintain bearish positioning for many months as prices grind higher. A commercial COT Index reading of fifteen indicating extreme bearishness might persist for three months while prices continue rallying before finally reversing. Traders without sufficient capital and risk tolerance to weather such drawdowns will exit prematurely, precisely when the signal is about to work (Irwin and Sanders, 2012).
Position sizing discipline becomes paramount when implementing COT-based strategies. Rather than risking large percentages of capital on individual signals, successful COT traders typically allocate modest position sizes across multiple signals, allowing some to take time to mature while others work more quickly.
The indicator also cannot overcome fundamental regime changes that alter the structural drivers of markets. If gold enters a true secular bull market driven by monetary debasement, commercial hedgers may remain persistently bearish as mining companies sell forward years of production at what they perceive as favorable prices. Their positioning indicates valuation concerns from a production cost perspective, but cannot stop prices from rising if investment demand overwhelms physical supply-demand balance.
Similarly, structural changes in market participation can alter the meaning of positioning extremes. The growth of commodity index investing in the two thousands brought massive passive long-only capital into futures markets, fundamentally changing typical positioning ranges. Traders relying on COT signals without recognizing this regime change would have generated numerous false bearish signals during the commodity supercycle from 2003 to 2008.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis derives primarily from commodity markets where the commercial hedger information advantage is most pronounced. Studies specifically examining financial futures like equity indices and bonds show weaker but still present effects. Traders should calibrate expectations accordingly, recognizing that COT analysis likely works better for crude oil, natural gas, corn, and wheat than for the S&P 500, Treasury bonds, or currency futures.
Another important limitation involves the reporting threshold structure. Not all market participants appear in COT data, only those holding positions above specified minimums. In markets dominated by a few large players, concentration metrics become critical for proper interpretation. A single large trader accounting for thirty percent of commercial positioning might skew the entire category if their individual circumstances are idiosyncratic rather than representative.
GOLD FUTURES DURING A HYPOTHETICAL MARKET CYCLE
Consider a practical example using gold futures during a hypothetical but realistic market scenario that illustrates how the COT Index indicator guides trading decisions through a complete market cycle. Suppose gold has rallied from fifteen hundred to nineteen hundred dollars per ounce over six months, driven by inflation concerns following aggressive monetary expansion, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained buying by Asian central banks for reserve diversification.
Large speculators, operating primarily trend-following strategies, have accumulated increasingly bullish positions throughout this rally. Their COT Index has climbed progressively from forty-five to eighty-five. The table display shows that large speculators now hold net long positions representing thirty-two percent of total open interest, their highest in four years. Momentum indicators show positive readings, indicating positions are still building though at a decelerating rate. Position velocity has turned negative, suggesting the pace of position building is slowing.
Meanwhile, commercial hedgers have responded to the rally by aggressively selling forward production and inventory. Their COT Index has moved inversely to price, declining from fifty-five to twenty. This bearish commercial positioning represents mining companies locking in forward sales at prices they view as attractive relative to production costs. The table shows commercials now hold net short positions representing twenty-nine percent of total open interest, their most bearish stance in five years. Concentration metrics indicate this positioning is broadly distributed across many commercial entities, suggesting the bearish stance reflects collective industry view rather than idiosyncratic positioning by a single firm.
Small traders, attracted by mainstream financial media coverage of gold's impressive rally, have recently piled into long positions. Their COT Index has jumped from forty-five to seventy-eight as retail investors chase the trend. Television financial networks feature frequent segments on gold with bullish guests. Internet forums and social media show surging retail interest. This retail enthusiasm historically marks late-stage trend development rather than early opportunity.
The COT Index indicator, configured to monitor commercial positioning from a contrarian perspective, displays a clear bearish signal given the extreme commercial short positioning. The table displays multiple confirming metrics: positioning extremity shows commercials at the ninety-sixth percentile of bearishness, market power indicates they control twenty-nine percent of open interest, and sentiment divergence registers sixty-five, indicating massive disagreement between commercial hedgers and large speculators. This divergence, the highest in three years, places the market in the historically high-risk category for reversals.
The interpretation requires nuance and consideration of context beyond just COT data. Commercials are not necessarily predicting an imminent crash. Rather, they are hedging business operations at what they collectively view as favorable price levels. However, the data reveals they have sold unusually large quantities of forward production, suggesting either exceptional production expectations for the year ahead or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Combined with extreme speculator positioning indicating a crowded long trade, and small trader enthusiasm confirming retail FOMO, the confluence suggests elevated reversal risk even if the precise timing remains uncertain.
A prudent trader analyzing this situation might take several actions based on COT Index signals. Existing long positions could be tightened with closer stop losses. Profit-taking on a portion of long exposure could lock in gains while maintaining some participation. Some traders might initiate modest short positions as portfolio hedges, sizing them appropriately for the inherent uncertainty in timing reversals. Others might simply move to the sidelines, avoiding new long entries until positioning normalizes.
The key lesson from case study analysis is that COT signals provide probabilistic edges rather than deterministic predictions. They work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over time, yet still means forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. Traders must embrace this probabilistic reality rather than seeking the impossible goal of perfect accuracy.
INTEGRATION WITH TRADING SYSTEMS
Integration with existing trading systems represents a natural and powerful use case for COT analysis, adding a positioning dimension to price-based technical approaches or fundamental analytical frameworks. Few traders rely exclusively on a single indicator or methodology. Rather, they build systems that synthesize multiple information sources, with each component addressing different aspects of market behavior.
Trend followers might use COT extremes as regime filters, modifying position sizing or avoiding new trend entries when positioning reaches levels historically associated with reversals. Consider a classic trend-following system based on moving average crossovers and momentum breakouts. Integration of COT analysis adds nuance. When large speculator positioning exceeds ninety or commercial positioning falls below ten, the regime filter recognizes elevated reversal risk. The system might reduce position sizing by fifty percent for new signals during these high-risk periods (Kaufman, 2013).
Mean reversion traders might require COT signal confluence before fading extended moves. When crude oil becomes technically overbought and large speculators show extreme long positioning above eighty-five, both signals confirm. If only technical indicators show extremes while positioning remains neutral, the potential short signal is rejected, avoiding fades of trends with underlying institutional support (Kaufman, 2013).
Discretionary traders can monitor the indicator as a continuous awareness tool, informing bias and position sizing without dictating mechanical entries and exits. A discretionary trader might notice commercial positioning shifting from neutral to progressively more bullish over several months. This trend informs growing positive bias even without triggering mechanical signals.
Multi-timeframe analysis represents another powerful integration approach. A trader might use daily charts for trade execution and timing while monitoring weekly COT positioning for strategic context. When both timeframes align, highest-probability opportunities emerge.
Portfolio construction for futures traders can incorporate COT signals as an additional selection criterion. Markets showing strong technical setups AND favorable COT positioning receive highest allocations. Markets with strong technicals but neutral or unfavorable positioning receive reduced allocations.
ADVANCED METRICS AND INTERPRETATION
The metrics table transforms simple positioning data into multidimensional market intelligence. Position extremity, calculated as the absolute deviation from the historical mean normalized by standard deviation, helps identify truly unusual readings versus routine fluctuations. A reading above two standard deviations indicates ninety-fifth percentile or higher extremity. Above three standard deviations indicates ninety-ninth percentile or higher, genuinely rare positioning that historically precedes major events with high probability.
Market power, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, reveals whose positioning matters most from a mechanical market impact perspective. Consider two scenarios in gold futures. In scenario one, commercials show a COT Index reading of fifteen while their market power metric shows they hold net shorts representing thirty-five percent of open interest. This is a high-confidence bearish signal. In scenario two, commercials also show a reading of fifteen, but market power shows only eight percent. While positioning is extreme relative to this category's normal range, their limited market share means less mechanical influence on price.
The rate of change and momentum metrics highlight whether positions are accelerating or decelerating, often providing earlier warnings than absolute levels alone. A COT Index reading of seventy-five with rapidly building momentum suggests continued movement toward extremes. Conversely, a reading of eighty-five with decelerating or negative momentum indicates the positioning trend is exhausting.
Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative. When velocity shifts from positive to negative, it indicates that while positioning may still be growing, the pace of growth is slowing. This deceleration often precedes actual reversal in positioning direction by several weeks.
Sentiment divergence calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. When commercials show extreme bearish positioning at twenty while large speculators show extreme bullish positioning at eighty, the divergence reaches sixty, representing near-maximum disagreement. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals. The mechanism is intuitive. Extreme divergence indicates the informed hedgers and momentum-following speculators have positioned opposite each other with conviction. One group will prove correct and profit while the other proves incorrect and suffers losses. The resolution of this disagreement through price movement often involves volatility.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning within a category, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation. Broad-based positioning more reliably reflects collective market intelligence and industry consensus. If mining companies globally all independently decide to hedge aggressively at similar price levels, it suggests genuine industry-wide view about price valuations rather than circumstances specific to one firm.
DATA QUALITY AND RELIABILITY
The CFTC has maintained COT reporting in various forms since the nineteen twenties, providing nearly a century of positioning data across multiple market cycles. However, data quality and reporting standards have evolved substantially over this long period. Modern electronic reporting implemented in the late nineteen nineties and early two thousands significantly improved accuracy and timeliness compared to earlier paper-based systems.
Traders should understand that COT reports capture positions as of Tuesday's close each week. Markets remain open three additional days before publication on Friday afternoon, meaning the reported data is three days stale when received. During periods of rapid market movement or major news events, this lag can be significant. The indicator addresses this limitation by including timestamp information and staleness warnings.
The three-day lag creates particular challenges during extreme volatility episodes. Flash crashes, surprise central bank interventions, geopolitical shocks, and other high-impact events can completely transform market positioning within hours. Traders must exercise judgment about whether reported positioning remains relevant given intervening events.
Reporting thresholds also mean that not all market participants appear in disaggregated COT data. Traders holding positions below specified minimums aggregate into the non-reportable or small trader category. This aggregation affects different markets differently. In highly liquid contracts like crude oil with thousands of participants, reportable traders might represent seventy to eighty percent of open interest. In thinly traded contracts with only dozens of active participants, a few large reportable positions might represent ninety-five percent of open interest.
Another data quality consideration involves trader classification into categories. The CFTC assigns traders to commercial or non-commercial categories based on reported business purpose and activities. However, this process is not perfect. Some entities engage in both commercial and speculative activities, creating ambiguity about proper classification. The transition to Disaggregated reports attempted to address some of these ambiguities by creating more granular categories.
COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
Several alternative approaches to COT analysis exist in the trading community beyond the normalization methodology employed by this indicator. Some analysts focus on absolute position changes week-over-week rather than index-based normalization. This approach calculates the change in net positioning from one week to the next. The emphasis falls on momentum in positioning changes rather than absolute levels relative to history. This method potentially identifies regime shifts earlier but sacrifices cross-market comparability (Briese, 2008).
Other practitioners employ more complex statistical transformations including percentile rankings, z-score standardization, and machine learning classification algorithms. Ruan and Zhang (2018) demonstrated that machine learning models applied to COT data could achieve modest improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to simple threshold-based approaches. However, these gains came at the cost of interpretability and implementation complexity.
The COT Index indicator intentionally employs a relatively straightforward normalization methodology for several important reasons. First, transparency enhances user understanding and trust. Traders can verify calculations manually and develop intuitive feel for what different readings mean. Second, academic research suggests that most of the predictive power in COT data comes from extreme positioning levels rather than subtle patterns requiring complex statistical methods to detect. Third, robust methods that work consistently across many markets and time periods tend to be simpler rather than more complex, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data. Fourth, the complexity costs of implementation matter for retail traders without programming teams or computational infrastructure.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF COT TRADING
Trading based on COT data requires psychological fortitude that differs from momentum-based approaches. Contrarian positioning signals inherently mean betting against prevailing market sentiment and recent price action. When commercials reach extreme bearish positioning, prices have typically been rising, sometimes for extended periods. The price chart looks bullish, momentum indicators confirm strength, moving averages align positively. The COT signal says bet against all of this. This psychological difficulty explains why COT analysis remains underutilized relative to trend-following methods.
Human psychology strongly predisposes us toward extrapolation and recency bias. When prices rally for months, our pattern-matching brains naturally expect continued rally. The recent price action dominates our perception, overwhelming rational analysis about positioning extremes and historical probabilities. The COT signal asking us to sell requires overriding these powerful psychological impulses.
The indicator design attempts to support the required psychological discipline through several features. Clear threshold markers and signal states reduce ambiguity about when signals trigger. When the commercial index crosses below twenty, the signal is explicit and unambiguous. The background shifts to red, the signal label displays bearish, and alerts fire. This explicitness helps traders act on signals rather than waiting for additional confirmation that may never arrive.
The metrics table provides analytical justification for contrarian positions, helping traders maintain conviction during inevitable periods of adverse price movement. When a trader enters short positions based on extreme commercial bearish positioning but prices continue rallying for several weeks, doubt naturally emerges. The table display provides reassurance. Commercial positioning remains extremely bearish. Divergence remains high. The positioning thesis remains intact even though price action has not yet confirmed.
Alert functionality ensures traders do not miss signals due to inattention while also not requiring constant monitoring that can lead to emotional decision-making. Setting alerts for COT extremes enables a healthier relationship with markets. When meaningful signals occur, alerts notify them. They can then calmly assess the situation and execute planned responses.
However, no indicator design can completely overcome the psychological difficulty of contrarian trading. Some traders simply cannot maintain short positions while prices rally. For these traders, COT analysis might be better employed as an exit signal for long positions rather than an entry signal for shorts.
Ultimately, successful COT trading requires developing comfort with probabilistic thinking rather than certainty-seeking. The signals work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five or sixty percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over years, yet still means forty to forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. COT analysis provides genuine edge, but edge means probability advantage, not elimination of losing trades.
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTINUOUS LEARNING
The indicator provides extensive built-in educational resources through its documentation, detailed tooltips, and transparent calculations. However, mastering COT analysis requires study beyond any single tool or resource. Several excellent resources provide valuable extensions of the concepts covered in this guide.
Books and practitioner-focused monographs offer accessible entry points. Stephen Briese published The Commitments of Traders Bible in two thousand eight, offering detailed breakdowns of how different markets and trader categories behave (Briese, 2008). Briese's work stands out for its empirical focus and market-specific insights. Jack Schwager includes discussion of COT analysis within the broader context of market behavior in his book Market Sense and Nonsense (Schwager, 2012). Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods represents perhaps the most rigorous practitioner-focused text on systematic trading approaches including COT analysis (Kaufman, 2013).
Academic journal articles provide the rigorous statistical foundation underlying COT analysis. The Journal of Futures Markets regularly publishes research on positioning data and its predictive properties. Bessembinder and Chan's earlier work on systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets provides theoretical foundation (Bessembinder, 1992). Chang's examination of speculator returns provides historical context (Chang, 1985). Irwin and Sanders provide essential skeptical perspective in their two thousand twelve article (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). Wang's two thousand three article provides one of the most empirical analyses of COT data across multiple commodity markets (Wang, 2003).
Online resources extend beyond academic and book-length treatments. The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports in multiple formats. The explanatory materials section offers detailed documentation of report construction, category definitions, and historical methodology changes. Traders serious about COT analysis should read these official CFTC documents to understand exactly what they are analyzing.
Commercial COT data services such as Barchart provide enhanced visualization and analysis tools beyond raw CFTC data. TradingView's educational materials, published scripts library, and user community provide additional resources for exploring different approaches to COT analysis.
The key to mastering COT analysis lies not in finding a single definitive source but rather in building understanding through multiple perspectives and information sources. Academic research provides rigorous empirical foundation. Practitioner-focused books offer practical implementation insights. Direct engagement with data through systematic backtesting develops intuition about how positioning dynamics manifest across different market conditions.
SYNTHESIZING KNOWLEDGE INTO PRACTICE
The COT Index indicator represents the synthesis of academic research, trading experience, and software engineering into a practical tool accessible to retail traders equipped with nothing more than a TradingView account and willingness to learn. What once required expensive data subscriptions, custom programming capabilities, statistical software, and institutional resources now appears as a straightforward indicator requiring only basic parameter selection and modest study to understand. This democratization of institutional-grade analysis tools represents a broader trend in financial markets over recent decades.
Yet technology and data access alone provide no edge without understanding and discipline. Markets remain relentlessly efficient at eliminating edges that become too widely known and mechanically exploited. The COT Index indicator succeeds only when users invest time learning the underlying concepts, understand the limitations and probability distributions involved, and integrate signals thoughtfully into trading plans rather than applying them mechanically.
The academic research demonstrates conclusively that institutional positioning contains genuine information about future price movements, particularly at extremes where commercial hedgers are maximally bearish or bullish relative to historical norms. This informational content is neither perfect nor deterministic but rather probabilistic, providing edge over many observations through identification of higher-probability configurations. Bessembinder and Chan's finding that commercial positioning explained modest but significant variance in future returns illustrates this probabilistic nature perfectly (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992). The effect is real and statistically significant, yet it explains perhaps ten to fifteen percent of return variance rather than most variance. Much of price movement remains unpredictable even with positioning intelligence.
The practical implication is that COT analysis works best as one component of a trading system rather than a standalone oracle. It provides the positioning dimension, revealing where the smart money has positioned and where the crowd has followed, but price action analysis provides the timing dimension. Fundamental analysis provides the catalyst dimension. Risk management provides the survival dimension. These components work together synergistically.
The indicator's design philosophy prioritizes transparency and education over black-box complexity, empowering traders to understand exactly what they are analyzing and why. Every calculation is documented and user-adjustable. The threshold markers, background coloring, tables, and clear signal states provide multiple reinforcing channels for conveying the same information.
This educational approach reflects a conviction that sustainable trading success comes from genuine understanding rather than mechanical system-following. Traders who understand why commercial positioning matters, how different trader categories behave, what positioning extremes signify, and where signals fit within probability distributions can adapt when market conditions change. Traders mechanically following black-box signals without comprehension abandon systems after normal losing streaks.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis comes primarily from commodity markets where commercial hedger informational advantages are most pronounced. Agricultural producers hedging crops know more about supply conditions than distant speculators. Energy companies hedging production know more about operating costs than financial traders. Metals miners hedging output know more about ore grades than index funds. Financial futures markets show weaker but still present effects.
The journey from reading this documentation to profitable trading based on COT analysis involves several stages that cannot be rushed. Initial reading and basic understanding represents the first stage. Historical study represents the second stage, reviewing past market cycles to observe how positioning extremes preceded major turning points. Paper trading or small-size real trading represents the third stage to experience the psychological challenges. Refinement based on results and personal psychology represents the fourth stage.
Markets will continue evolving. New participant categories will emerge. Regulatory structures will change. Technology will advance. Yet the fundamental dynamics driving COT analysis, that different market participants have different information, different motivations, and different forecasting abilities that manifest in their positioning, will persist as long as futures markets exist. While specific thresholds or optimal parameters may shift over time, the core logic remains sound and adaptable.
The trader equipped with this indicator, understanding of the theory and evidence behind COT analysis, realistic expectations about probability rather than certainty, discipline to maintain positions through adverse volatility, and patience to allow signals time to develop possesses genuine edge in markets. The edge is not enormous, markets cannot allow large persistent inefficiencies without arbitraging them away, but it is real, measurable, and exploitable by those willing to invest in learning and disciplined application.
REFERENCES
Bessembinder, H. (1992) Systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets, Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), pp. 637-667.
Bessembinder, H. and Chan, K. (1992) The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(2-3), pp. 257-284.
Briese, S. (2008) The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Chang, E.C. (1985) Returns to speculators and the theory of normal backwardation, Journal of Finance, 40(1), pp. 193-208.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2009) Explanatory Notes: Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2020) Commitments of Traders: About the Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Irwin, S.H. and Sanders, D.R. (2012) Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 256-269.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013) Trading Systems and Methods. 5th edn. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Ruan, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2018) Forecasting commodity futures prices using machine learning: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market, Applied Economics Letters, 25(12), pp. 845-849.
Sanders, D.R., Boris, K. and Manfredo, M. (2004) Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, Energy Economics, 26(3), pp. 425-445.
Schwager, J.D. (2012) Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work and How They Don't. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Tharp, V.K. (2008) Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Wang, C. (2003) The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders, Journal of Futures Markets, 23(1), pp. 1-31.
Williams, L.R. and Noseworthy, M. (2009) The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
FURTHER READING
For traders seeking to deepen their understanding of COT analysis and futures market positioning beyond this documentation, the following resources provide valuable extensions:
Academic Journal Articles:
Fishe, R.P.H. and Smith, A. (2012) Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?, Journal of Commodity Markets, 1(1), pp. 1-16.
Haigh, M.S., Hranaiova, J. and Overdahl, J.A. (2007) Hedge funds, volatility, and liquidity provision in energy futures markets, Journal of Alternative Investments, 9(4), pp. 10-38.
Kocagil, A.E. (1997) Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), pp. 115-125.
Sanders, D.R. and Irwin, S.H. (2011) The impact of index funds in commodity futures markets: A systems approach, Journal of Alternative Investments, 14(1), pp. 40-49.
Books and Practitioner Resources:
Murphy, J.J. (1999) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Pring, M.J. (2002) Technical Analysis Explained: The Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points. 4th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Federal Reserve and Research Institution Publications:
Federal Reserve Banks regularly publish working papers examining commodity markets, futures positioning, and price discovery mechanisms. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City maintain active research programs in this area.
Online Resources:
The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports, explanatory materials, and regulatory documentation.
Barchart offers enhanced COT data visualization and screening tools.
TradingView's community library contains numerous published scripts and educational materials exploring different approaches to positioning analysis.
DayFlow VWAP Relay Forex Majors StrategySummary in one paragraph
DayFlow VWAP Relay is a day-trading strategy for major FX pairs on intraday timeframes, demonstrated on EURUSD 15 minutes. It waits for alignment between a daily anchored VWAP regime check, residual percentiles, and lower-timeframe micro flow before suggesting trades. The originality is the fusion of daily VWAP residual percentiles with a live micro-flow score from 1 minute data to switch between fade and breakout behavior inside the same session. Add it to a clean chart and use the markers and alerts.
Scope and intent
• Markets: Major FX pairs such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD
• Timeframes: One minute to one hour
• Default demo in this publication: EURUSD on 15 minutes
• Purpose: Reduce false starts by acting only when context, location and micro flow agree
• Limits: This is a strategy. Orders are simulated on standard candles only
Originality and usefulness
• Core novelty: Residual percentiles to daily anchored VWAP decide “balanced versus expanding day”. A separate 1 minute micro-flow score confirms direction, so the same model fades extremes in balance and rides range breaks in expansion
• Failure modes addressed: Chop fakeouts and unconfirmed breakouts are filtered by the expansion gate and micro-flow threshold
• Testability: Every input is exposed. Bands, background regime color, and markers show why a suggestion appears
• Portable yardstick: Stops and targets are ATR multiples converted to ticks, which transfer across symbols
• Open source status: No reused third-party code that requires attribution
Method overview in plain language
The day is anchored with a VWAP that updates from the daily session start. Price minus VWAP is the residual. Percentiles of that residual measured over a rolling window define location extremes for the current day. A regime score compares residual volatility to price volatility. When expansion is low, the day is treated as balanced and the model fades residual extremes if 1 minute micro flow points back to VWAP. When expansion is high, the model trades breakouts outside the VWAP bands if slope and micro flow agree with the move.
Base measures
• Range basis: True Range smoothed by ATR for stops and targets, length 14
• Return basis: Not required for signals; residuals are absolute price distance to VWAP
Components
• Daily Anchor VWAP Bands. VWAP with standard-deviation bands. Slope sign is used for trend confirmation on breakouts
• Residual Percentiles. Rolling percentiles of close minus VWAP over Signal length. Identify location extremes inside the day
• Expansion Ratio. Standard deviation of residuals divided by standard deviation of price over Signal length. Classifies balanced versus expanding day
• Micro Flow. Net up minus down closes from 1 minute data across a short span, normalized to −1..+1. Confirms direction and avoids fades against pressure
• Session Window optional. Restricts trading to your configured hours to avoid thin periods
• Cooldown optional. Bars to wait after a position closes to prevent immediate re-entry
Fusion rule
Gating rather than weighting. First choose regime by Expansion Ratio versus the Expansion gate. Inside each regime all listed conditions must be true: location test plus micro-flow threshold plus session window plus cooldown. Breakouts also require VWAP slope alignment.
Signal rule
• Long suggestion on balanced day: residual at or below the lower percentile and micro flow positive above the gate while inside session and cooldown is satisfied
• Short suggestion on balanced day: residual at or above the upper percentile and micro flow negative below the gate while inside session and cooldown is satisfied
• Long suggestion on expanding day: close above the upper VWAP band, VWAP slope positive, micro flow positive, session and cooldown satisfied
• Short suggestion on expanding day: close below the lower VWAP band, VWAP slope negative, micro flow negative, session and cooldown satisfied
• Positions flip on opposite suggestions or exit by brackets
What you will see on the chart
• Markers on suggestion bars: L for long, S for short
• Exit occurs on reverse signal or when a bracket order is filled
• Reference lines: daily anchored VWAP with upper and lower bands
• Optional background: teal for balanced day, orange for expanding day
Inputs with guidance
Setup
• Signal length. Residual and regime window. Typical 40 to 100. Higher smooths, lower reacts faster
Micro Flow
• Micro TF. Lower timeframe used for micro flow, default 1 minute
• Micro span bars. Count of lower-TF bars. Typical 5 to 20
• Micro flow gate 0..1. Minimum absolute flow. Raising it demands stronger confirmation and reduces trade count
VWAP Bands
• VWAP stdev multiplier. Band width. Typical 0.8 to 1.6. Wider bands reduce breakout frequency and increase fade distance
• Expansion gate 0..3. Threshold to switch from fades to breakouts. Raising it favors fades, lowering it favors breakouts
Sessions
• Use session filter. Enable to trade only inside your window
• Trade window UTC. Default 07:00 to 17:00
Risk
• ATR length. Stop and target basis. Typical 10 to 21
• Stop ATR x. Initial stop distance in ATR multiples
• Target ATR x. Profit target distance in ATR multiples
• Cooldown bars after close. Wait bars before a new entry
• Side. Both, long only, or short only
View
• Show VWAP and bands
• Color bars by residual regime
Properties visible in this publication
• Initial capital 10000
• Base currency Default
• request.security uses lookahead off everywhere
• Strategy: Percent of equity with value 3. Pyramiding 0. Commission cash per order 0.0001 USD. Slippage 3 ticks. Process orders on close ON. Bar magnifier ON. Recalculate after order is filled OFF. Calc on every tick OFF. Using standard OHLC fills ON.
Realism and responsible publication
No performance claims. Past results never guarantee future outcomes. Fills and slippage vary by venue. Shapes can move while a bar forms and settle on close. Strategies must run on standard candles for signals and orders.
Honest limitations and failure modes
High impact news, session opens, and thin liquidity can invalidate assumptions. Very quiet days can reduce contrast between residuals and price volatility. Session windows use the chart exchange time. If both stop and target are touched within a single bar, TradingView’s standard OHLC price-movement model decides the outcome.
Expect different behavior on illiquid pairs or during holidays. The model is sensitive to session definitions and feed time. Past results never guarantee future outcomes.
Legal
Education and research only. Not investment advice. You are responsible for your decisions. Test on historical data and in simulation before any live use. Use realistic costs.
