Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Z-Score | [DeV]SOPR Z-Score
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is an advanced on-chain metric designed to provide deep insights into Bitcoin market dynamics by measuring the ratio between the combined USD value of all Bitcoin outputs spent on a given day and their combined USD value at the time of creation (typically, their purchase price). As a member of the Realized Profit/Loss family of metrics, SOPR offers a window into aggregate seller behavior, effectively representing the USD amount received by sellers divided by the USD amount they originally paid. This indicator enhances this metric by normalizing it into a Z-Score, enabling a statistically robust analysis of market sentiment relative to historical trends, augmented by a suite of customizable features for precision and visualization.
SOPR Settings -
Lookback Length (Default: 150 days): Determines the historical window for calculating the Z-Score’s mean and standard deviation. A longer lookback captures broader market cycles, providing a stable baseline for identifying extreme deviations, which is particularly valuable for long-term strategic analysis.
Smoothing Period (Default: 100 days): Applies an EMA to the raw SOPR, balancing responsiveness to recent changes with noise reduction. This extended smoothing period ensures the indicator focuses on sustained shifts in seller behavior, ideal for institutional-grade trend analysis.
Moving Average Settings -
MA Lookback Length (Default: 90 days): Sets the period for the Z-Score’s moving average, offering a shorter-term trend signal relative to the 150-day Z-Score lookback. This contrast enhances the ability to detect momentum shifts within the broader context.
MA Type (Default: EMA): Provides six moving average types, from the simple SMA to the volume-weighted VWMA. The default EMA strikes an optimal balance between smoothness and responsiveness, while alternatives like HMA (Hull) or VWMA (volume-weighted) allow for specialized applications, such as emphasizing recent price action or incorporating volume dynamics.
Display Settings -
Show Moving Average (Default: True): Toggles the visibility of the Z-Score MA plot, enabling users to focus solely on the raw Z-Score when preferred.
Show Background Colors (Default: True): Activates dynamic background shading, enhancing visual interpretation of market regimes.
Background Color Source (Default: SOPR): Allows users to tie the background color to either the SOPR Z-Score’s midline (reflecting adjustedZScore > 0) or the MA’s trend direction (zScoreMA > zScoreMA ). This dual-source option provides flexibility to align the visual context with the primary analytical focus.
Analytical Applications -
Bear Market Resistance: When the Z-Score approaches or exceeds zero (raw SOPR near 1), it often signals resistance as sellers rush to exit at break-even, a pattern historically observed during downtrends. A rising Z-Score MA crossing zero can confirm this pressure.
Bull Market Support: Conversely, a Z-Score dropping below zero in uptrends indicates reluctance to sell at a loss, forming support as sell pressure diminishes. The MA’s bullish coloring reinforces confirmation of renewed buying interest.
Extreme Deviations: Values significantly above or below zero highlight overbought or oversold conditions, respectively, offering opportunities for contrarian positioning when paired with other on-chain or price-based metrics.
Sopr
SOPR Candles OscillatorThe Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output. Or simply: price sold / price paid. This metric was created by Renato Shirakashi.
The indicator provides insight into macro market sentiment, profitability and losses taken over a particular time-frame. It reflects the degree of realized profit for all coins moved on-chain.
SOPR is measured by taking the ratio between the fiat value at the time of UTXO creation, and the fiat value when the UTXO is spent.
In this indicator, I have essentially created an index that measures SOPR value on any given day. This is visually displayed as an oscillator.
SOPR values greater than 0 implies that the coins moved that day are, on average, selling at a profit (price sold is greater than the price paid).
SOPR value less than 0 implies that the coins moved that day are, on average, selling at a loss (price sold is less than the price paid).
You have the ability to see the SOPR of BTC , ETH and LTC. You can also smooth the SOPR using an EMA or SMA of your choice. I have added colored bars to the chart to make it easier to visualize SOPR and it's relation to price action.
Thank you to both TradingView and Glassnode for adding all the on-chain data.
