Yen Futures Options: What the "Put Condor" Tells Us About Future

17 Jul

A quick look at the options sentiment on Japanese Yen futures (not spot) — and there’s something interesting on the flow radar.

On July 10 , a "Put Condor" was placed — boundaries marked by the yellow rectangle on the chart (№1).
The goal of this setup? Price should expire within these boundaries — meaning the seller expects limited downside , but still allows for some controlled movement.

What’s notable?
This position was placed before the yen started to weaken — so someone was clearly preparing for this scenario in advance .

Also worth watching:
Further down (№2 on the chart), there’s another cluster of put options at 0.0067 — suggesting this level could act as a support zone if the futures contract drops that low.

📊 Bottom Line:
There are clear signs pointing to continued downside pressure in Yen futures.
The 0.006685 level is key — potential support for a bounce back into the 0.00675–0.00685 range .

5 Ogo

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

The JPY futures are back where the options already told us they’d go — right into the zone of the Put Condor I wrote about earlier.

Now, just days before expiry, we’re seeing clear unwinding activity:
📉 Open interest dropping at the key strikes
🔁 Signs of position closure in the structure

A Condor is a sophisticated, multi-leg strategy that requires:

Deep market insight
Precise timing
Confidence in range-bound price action

This isn’t something retail “dabbles” in.
These are institutional-grade plays — and when they appear, we watch closely.

Could you have profited from this information?

Absolutely.

Trade towards the range on strong deviations.
And that’s exactly what played out when the futures dropped to 0.006656.

But here’s the catch:
To see it, you need to make exchange data analysis a daily habit — not just a “check-in when it’s convenient.”

It’s about discipline.
It’s about edge.

And as I’ve said before — and will keep saying:
This edge is worth the effort.