Why Apple Could Be Entering a Structural Correction

🍎📉 Why Apple Could Be Entering a Structural Correction ⚠️🔍

After scanning major tech names today, one stock stood out—for all the wrong reasons: AAPL.

Technically, Apple has broken below long-standing trendline support, and my chart now assigns a 70% probability(roughly guys...roughly and rounded) of further downside vs only 30% upside. But it's not just about the chart...

Here’s the macro storm Apple is walking into:

🧭 1. Trade War Revival
New tariffs on Chinese electronics could cost Apple up to $1.1B/quarter, even as it tries to diversify production. India and Vietnam are promising, but not mature enough to offset risk.

🤖 2. Lagging in the AI Arms Race
While Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft pour $30B+ into AI, Apple is spending less than half that. Analysts weren’t impressed with “Apple Intelligence.” Siri still isn’t leading.

🇨🇳 3. China: Flatlining Growth, Rising Risk
~18% of Apple’s revenue still comes from China. With Huawei resurging and tightening regulations, Apple’s dominance is being chipped away.

🛑 4. Innovation Pipeline: Empty?
There’s no iPhone super-cycle ahead. Vision Pro remains niche. Apple now looks like a mature tech stock without a breakout catalyst—risky when valuation is still premium.

⚖️ 5. Legal Pressure on Both Sides of the Atlantic
The DOJ and EU are targeting Apple’s App Store dominance. If changes are enforced, the service revenue moat weakens.

🔽 Summary: This Isn’t Panic. It’s Repricing.
The market is re-rating Apple based on real structural risks.

Downside levels I’m watching:

• []📉 177.65 (first support)
  []📉 154.53 (next key level)
  
• ❗️134–113 zone if macro pressure escalates
  

Chart = structure. Narrative = pressure. Both are aligned.

Let me know your thoughts—still long AAPL, or hedging this weakness?

One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙

Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈