BUY APPLE: 2016 @$117 & 2017 @$151 - HISTORICAL MONTHLY ANALYSIS
Apple shows a strong and consistent monthly trend of each bull-bear cycle lasting approximates 2-3 years.
The first bull cycle yielded between 200% and 700% growth, the second much less at 145% growth, and the third we estimate using regressions to be approximately between 67% and 106% (or 67% for the next bull run to $151 and 105% for the 4th bull run to $181).
Looking at apple from this monthly perspective gives me reassurance that the $134-$89 or 33% pull back we just saw was merely a macro cyclical correction (which was actually less severe than the pullback in 2012) rather than a structural bearish re-trend - assuming we go on to make $150+ highs in 2017.
With this assumption/ thought in mind it actually makes sense to buy apple heavily whilst its at such a discount - after-all apple historically has shown steep price extensions that offer few significant (-10%+) pull backs to buy, thus we should realign our attitude to factor in where apple sits in its cycle.
It is often too easy to get caught up in the daily +/1 $2 moves, you sometimes can forget the bigger picture of making the most of a great stock fundamentally, thats trading at 10x p:e.
A key statistical measure that reaffirms the above is Apple's monthly price action and its 120 month Linear regression line which together returns a Pearson's R Coefficient of 0.95, meaning time and price as plotted on the x and y axis for Apple hold an almost perfect linear relationship (Apples data is 95% about the linear regression line).
This means we can extrapolate the price trends for the bull-bear cycles, by simply extending the x axis (time) along the regression line to estimate future prices, to a decent degree of statistical relevance.
If the Peasron's R Coefficient was 0.1 it would mean monthly prices are only 10% about the regression, thus extrapolation of price through time would LIKELY yield very little correlation to the actual future price, based on past prices.
Look out for my fundamental analysis of apple in the coming weeks
The first bull cycle yielded between 200% and 700% growth, the second much less at 145% growth, and the third we estimate using regressions to be approximately between 67% and 106% (or 67% for the next bull run to $151 and 105% for the 4th bull run to $181).
Looking at apple from this monthly perspective gives me reassurance that the $134-$89 or 33% pull back we just saw was merely a macro cyclical correction (which was actually less severe than the pullback in 2012) rather than a structural bearish re-trend - assuming we go on to make $150+ highs in 2017.
With this assumption/ thought in mind it actually makes sense to buy apple heavily whilst its at such a discount - after-all apple historically has shown steep price extensions that offer few significant (-10%+) pull backs to buy, thus we should realign our attitude to factor in where apple sits in its cycle.
It is often too easy to get caught up in the daily +/1 $2 moves, you sometimes can forget the bigger picture of making the most of a great stock fundamentally, thats trading at 10x p:e.
A key statistical measure that reaffirms the above is Apple's monthly price action and its 120 month Linear regression line which together returns a Pearson's R Coefficient of 0.95, meaning time and price as plotted on the x and y axis for Apple hold an almost perfect linear relationship (Apples data is 95% about the linear regression line).
This means we can extrapolate the price trends for the bull-bear cycles, by simply extending the x axis (time) along the regression line to estimate future prices, to a decent degree of statistical relevance.
If the Peasron's R Coefficient was 0.1 it would mean monthly prices are only 10% about the regression, thus extrapolation of price through time would LIKELY yield very little correlation to the actual future price, based on past prices.
Look out for my fundamental analysis of apple in the coming weeks
