AAPL Swing Trade Plan – 2025-06-06

🍏 AAPL Swing Trade Plan – 2025-06-06
Bias: Moderately Bullish
Timeframe: 5–10 days
Catalyst: WWDC event, bullish short-term technicals, declining VIX
Trade Type: OTM call option with high R/R profile

🧠 Model Consensus Snapshot
Model Direction Strike Entry Price Profit Targets Stop Loss Confidence
Grok No Trade – – – – 50%
Claude Long $207.50 ~$2.04 $3.00 / $3.75 ~$1.40 72%
Llama Long $205.00 ~$2.87 +20% -50% 78%
Gemini Long $210.00 ~$1.45 $2.10 / $2.90 ~$0.72 75%
DeepSeek Long $215.00 $0.70 $1.05 / $1.40 $0.35 75%

✅ Majority View: Moderately Bullish
📉 Max Pain: $205 → Possible short-term magnet
📆 WWDC Event: Potential catalyst or risk depending on outcome
🧾 Sentiment: Positive, with a bullish skew on options OI

📈 Technical Overview
Short-term: Above 10-EMA on 15m and daily

Medium-term: Challenging 50-EMA (~$204.83)

Weekly: Mixed but improving MACD

VIX: Falling (<20), supportive of calls

Risk: Compression near $205 due to max pain, and event risk from WWDC

✅ Final Trade Setup
Parameter Value
Instrument AAPL
Direction CALL (LONG)
Strike 215.00
Expiry 2025-06-20
Entry Price $0.70
Profit Targets $1.05 (50%) / $1.40 (100%)
Stop Loss $0.35 (50%) or if AAPL closes < $203.33
Size 1 contract
Entry Timing At market open
Confidence 75%

📍 Rationale: Deep OTM offers low-cost exposure with strong potential R/R into an event week.

⚠️ Key Risks to Watch
Break below $203.33 → invalidate bullish thesis

WWDC disappointment → negative gamma risk

Max pain at $205 → short-term pinning risk

Theta decay → rapid loss if no momentum by mid-week