AECI LIMITED

Our opinion on the current state of AECI(AFE)

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AECI (AFE) is a leading producer of chemicals and explosives in South Africa. It supplies products for the mining industry, water treatment, animal health, food and beverages, and the industrial sector. It has businesses in Australia, North America, Europe, Asia, and Africa. It employs 7600 people in 22 countries. It also has a property division called "Acacia". This company has successfully diversified away from its exposure to South Africa (40% of total revenue) and shown its ability to make acquisitions which boost turnover and profits.

In its results for the year to 31st December 2023, the company reported revenue up 5,4% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 11,7%. The company said, "In an environment characterised by high inflation and interest rates, supply chain and logistics challenges as well as declining commodity prices; the performance of AECI Mining, our core division, steered the results. Net debt improved to R4 338 million (2022: R5 345 million) driven by stringent net working capital management in the year."

In a trading statement for the six months to 30th June 2024, the company estimated that HEPS would increase by between 54% and 60%. The company said, "One-off events, contributed to unusually high operating costs and consequently, the Group's earnings for the period are expected to be lower relative to the record performance achieved in the first half of 2023."

On a P:E of 8,36 and a dividend yield (DY) of 1,84%, we believe that the share may fall further. Technically, the share has been trending sideways for most of the last ten years. Within that, it appears to be approaching the bottom of a downtrend and ready for some recovery.

Penafian

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