Singkat

AMC appears to be setting up for another push down

Telah dikemas kini

Before you start hating, I am simply making a technical analysis and do not care how strong your hands are. I have zero positions in this nor am I taking one.

We are at a critical level of global support. If it breaks, we could see a push down to either of these green boxes.

We have broken the 44ppma (blue moving average) and currently hooking back to retest it. This is a bearish sign on over extended securities. Watch out for an exhaustion push back out above it to suck in more retail longs.

The next real level of important global support is down around the .618 retracement of this entire leg of money.

Nota

If we zoom out we can see why my green global support zones are identified

I prefer to use boxes rather than a thin straight line. The boarders of the box roughly identify important levels.

Nota

The weekly 300sma is important and its in confluence with the gap we identified.

Watch this level for a large counter trend area.

Nota

More major dynamic global support resides in the 44ppma on the Monthly, Roughly same area as the weekly 300sma.

Nota

Looking at the 3day momentum indicators we can see there is a macd crossover, RSI about to put in a new low & the DMI is showing bearish divergence in the DI+ and a potential DI+- crossover while the ADX starts its decent.

Nota

Update:

We have confirmed S/R have flipped.

Nota

Counter trends often play out in 3 waves. Pulling these fib extensions gives us a rough fib target of 1.0. As rule of thumb, A=C.

Pulling a channel can also help us estimate the end of this counter trend

Nota

The 1.0 fib has confluence with local resistance formed by the topping consolidation, as well as with the top of our channel.

Look for one last exhaustion push up to fake out early shorts and suck in the last bit of retail traders at a top.

A double top at the 1.618 is easily on the table.

Nota

A bull flag is visually obvious, but is it a bit too obvious?

An easy way for market makers to induce emotional responses from uneducated retail traders is to print massive classical patterns to have them fail. A headfake out of this bullflag would surely create the liquidity needed to give time to reverse massive positions from market makers.

Nota

Counter trend broke down and we continue to push lower.

We are sitting at a critical level on the 1day 100ppma. If this doesnt hold we will move swiftly to get that square up.

Watch for a short squeeze as MM's try to catch retail money shorting.

Nota

If we do squeeze, watch for the 1day 44ppma and the top of that channel to hold strong as resistance.

Nota

August 11th I said watch out for that short squeeze.

We got the squeeze.

Nota

Now when we look at the daily, we are breaking out of this potential bull flag and attempting to hold above the 44ppma.

This seems bullish, but for me I think its a trap.

Ive seen too many times when price action breaks below the 44ppma, flips S/R then does one last head fake up back above before crushing retail.

Nota

Zooming out to the weekly.

Nota

We are still a long way above the 44ppma on the weekly. We have YET to retest this moving average as support.

IF we are going to go much higher like AMC bulls believe, then we must absolutely see price action come back and retest these MA's as support.

The weekly blue ma is lining up nicely with our square up.

Nota

9/4/2021 in the private discord, we adjusted this channel line slightly and are monitoring the exhaustion move.

Nota

A potential evening star is forming at the top of the channel and the .618 retracement.

Looking for a further push down soon.

Becareful for a fomo push on this exhaustion move to suck in early longs and stop out shorts.

Nota

The push down continues.

Nota

Continues down.

Nota

Now that white line was just for visual and not meant to be an exact representation.

Now we are under BOTH the blue and green MA's on the daily. We retested it as resistance on the 30th and say a massive sell off. Id expect them to test it again, and suck in another round of longs, while stopping out another round of retail shorts.

We are riding the heart line of that channel, we could see another push to the top of the channel before we see the bottom of it

Nota

Like this:

Nota

Here i copied the section in between the purple lines. Then i mirrored and flipped it to give you a better visual of what i mean when i say that we could see the top of the channel again before we see the bottom.

Nota

The visual is still playing out - we saw the top of the channel again before we see the bottom. Getting back under the moving averages. Still looks bearish here.

Nota

Gap down this am below the heartline confirms the bearish-ness here.

Nota

Watch for a continued push up from here. Looking for a rejection around the white trendline for a third touch. The confluence with the two retracements .618/.382 along with the moving averages are creating heavy resistance in this area.

Nota

With earnings coming up soon, i wouldnt be surprised to see them push up to my purple .786/.833 Sucking in retail again before turning it. They already did it once, will they do it again.

Nota

Well, just as expected. They faked retail traders out again.

Pushed it up to the purple .618 before absolutely ripping off retail heads after lackluster ER.

Top of the channel held strong.

Nota

We could also be seeing this play out as a triangle. I think thats what market makers want retail to see, is this triangle and believe that its going to pop up out of it. It could, but i think we break down back towards the bottom of this channel.

Nota

They are telling you this was because of Covid scares. LOL thats the narrative they feed you. In reality this move has been setting up in the charts for months and will continue to play out until market makers fix the areas on the chart that need to be squared up.

Remember the charts tell the story well before the news gives you a narrative.

Nota

That is a significant break of a massive unsustainable trendline on a macro scale.

Those holding bags will be lucky to find a counter trend at the monthly blue moving average if this thing continues to push south.

Nota

Monthly momentum is not looking great ATM.

Nota

Finally hit the first target and sliced right through it.

Nota

You can hope to see this channel line hold true, a counter trend seems likely, but this selling pressure is extreme. Capitulation could easily happen as retail bag holders may start to realize they arent going to see new ATH soon and they liquidate for christmas gifts..

Nota

Weekly momentum looking like it still wants to push lower. Zero line crossover on the macd and confluence within the RSI.

Weekly 300 seems like a good place to find support if things get grim quick

Nota

Not a good sign if youre an ape and a bag holder..

Nota

2nd target hit.

Nota

Started to see a great reaction off the bottom of that channel as we popped into the two levels we were waiting to see. Looking for continued counter trend action here and that white box as resistance.

I truly believe they are printing a massive bull flag for retail traders to fomo into. I wouldnt be surprised to see them rocket this thing up on a short squeeze and head fake out of the top of the channel. Its unlikely, but with something like this, you really gotta keep your head on a swivel.

Overall, i stll think the prevailing trend is down and regardless of whatever counter trend we may see here, theres some lower targets still on the table.

Nota

Trap has been set. I warned ya we would see counter trend action. Daily moving averages are crossing over right around our white box. Thats my estimated reversal point. But dont be surprised if they rip this thing to the top of the channel, give retail a head fake and pull the rug again.

Nota

I warned you of this trap on Dec 21st. They gave you a christmas present if you were stuck in a long at that point.

Well.

It doesnt look like a very happy new year for the AMC APES

Nota

You can hope for a bounce at those weekly moving averages and the .382, but Its going to have to take a lot to convince me that its not just a weak counter trend forming.

Square up still down there around 18.01

Nota

Square up - Check
Gap - Check

Counter trend at best from here. This things going all the way back to the ground.

Nota

Here are your possible paths.

Nota

Purple would be an enormous bulltrap for the ages.

Nota

Yellow path is the winner thus far.

Still a chance for us to see another squeeze up to those daily moving averages.

Always keep in mind, bear market rallies are vicious, strong movements to the upside. They lack follow through and confirmation.

I figured retail would be looking at the two white trendlines I drew. It makes sense that we are confusing them by poking through that trendline.

Nota

Heres some levels im looking at. Good luck to the holders, Good luck to the shorts. I have no position and will not take a position. This is my unbiased look at the chart this entire thread. Do with it what you will.

Nota

Update to chart on March 3rd above.

My paths were close, but it wound up being a little bit of both the yellow and purple path.

So far the rejection is coming as expected. Lets see where this retracement takes us.

Nota

Update to the chart on March 19

Apes would want to see this white box hold support for a potential continued push to the upside.

Nota

See how vicious the land mine can be ;)

We sliced right through nearly every fib on the way down

White box didnt hold.

Apes need to see price start to chop sideways and show signs of accumulation. I wouldnt want to see that $13 level break..

Nota

Since I have been bearish on AMC for months on this thread, I will give a chart for the Apes and Bulls.

If we copy the price action from the downtrend prior to the AMC rocketship, and fit it to the current price action we have been witnessing since AMC topped at 72

Nota

There is a lot of similarities in its movements.

This is nothing to hang your hat on, its just my right side brain finding similar structure and patterns.

Apes would really need this find support soon to prove itself quickly over the next few weeks to see this happen.

(I do not feel this is going to happen with my personal bias, but I can not deny the similarities and the potential. Remember I dont have a position, and will never have a position in this. Best of luck to all who are involved, this is my unbiased opinion on the price action I am seeing in front of me)

Nota

They are putting a hurting on those apes!

We are coming up onto some very important levels. We are heading towards an area that was consolidation before the huge move in amc. This is the area where a lot of late apes and late retail jumped on and got lucky. Those "diamond" hands that are still holding are now nearing their sell points as they will eventually settle for break even.

Ive broken down these levels we identified a few charts ago.

If we see price action starting to move swiftly through these levels without any buying - this could get ugly.

Lots of air bubbles in that Vol Pro

Taco0o0o

thetradeschool.net/courses/placement-exam-fast-start-to-trading/ -College Level courses I dare you to take the pretest! See what u know free!

Reach out for a discount code for our beginner course!

Juga pada:

Penafian

Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.